Tag: history

  • This Summer in Nuclear Threat History

    July 1, 2019 – Julian Borger’s article in The Guardian, “U.S. Arms Control Office Critically Understaffed Under Trump, Experts Say,” two and a half years into the Trump Administration, reinforced for the umpteenth time what many mainstream and alternative media outlets had been reporting since January 2017, that Trump haphazardly and against all logic is attempting to permanently demolish established governmental administration while also minimizing and privatizing the U.S. federal system, which includes drastically deemphasizing diplomacy while enhancing military power.  Another example is David Atkins Nov. 12, 2017 article, “Trump and Tillerson Are Gutting the State Department – For No Good Reason,” in the Washington Monthly, which noted that cuts to the entire State Department of nearly 2,000 full-time professionals was just the tip of the iceberg.  Atkins’ story hit the nail on the head by remarking that, “And why? Because Donald Trump promised to ‘drain the swamp’ and level massive cuts across all non-defense departments without the foggiest clue what they do or why?”   But more recently, Borger’s article published on this date noted that a U.S. State Department office, The Office of Strategic Stability and Deterrence Affairs, a repository of decades-long expertise and institutional knowledge on the critical matter of bilateral and multilateral arms control which has long been tasked with negotiating and implementing nuclear disarmament treaties (resulting in cuts in global nuclear weapons levels from 70,000 to 14,000 warheads in the last 50 years), has been cut from 14 staffers at the start of the Trump Administration to four. What’s more under neo-con extremist National Security Advisor John Bolton (who, like an incredible number of Trump appointees, resigned or was fired in September of 2019) arms control focus shifted irrationally to appealing to non-nuclear states to “come up with measures to modify the security environment to reduce incentives for states to retain, acquire, or increase their holdings of nuclear weapons.”  Comments: The danger now realized under Trump, according to experts like former Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Frank Rose and many others inside and outside government, is that the State Department in no longer equipped to pursue arms negotiations to attempt to salvage the last domino that Trump is trying to knock off the board – the New START or Moscow Treaty which expires in February of 2021. In 2019, Vladimir Putin noted that Russia was in favor of a New START extension, but warned that time was running out, “If we do not begin talks now, it would be over because there would be no time even for formalities.”  Unfortunately this now seems likely as back in 2009-11 under President Obama, a strong supporter of nuclear arms control, it took 21 months from the start of negotiation to ratification for New START to take effect.  This represents just another of a plethora of highly paramount reasons why Donald Trump must not have a second term as President.  (Sources:  A variety of both mainstream and alternative news media sources.)

    July 16, 1945 – In the first-ever test of what Manhattan Project scientists referred to as the “Gadget”, a fission bomb designed as a plutonium implosion device, was detonated before dawn at the Alamogordo Bombing and Gunnery Range, 230 miles south of the town of Los Alamos, New Mexico in a remote area of the Jornada Desert.  The code name of the test, Trinity, was created by the Director of the Los Alamos Laboratory, J. Robert Oppenheimer – it was a reference to a poem by John Donne.  President Truman’s personal journal of July 25 recorded that, “We have discovered the most terrible bomb in the history of the world…An experiment in the New Mexico desert…caused the complete disintegration of a steel tower 60 feet high, created a crater six feet deep and 1,200 feet in diameter, knocked down a steel tower half a mile away and knocked down men 10,000 yards away.  The explosion was visible for more than 200 miles and audible for 40 miles and more.”  Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson’s report to the president noted that, “I estimate that the energy generated to be in excess of the equivalent of 15,000 to 20,000 tons of TNT…there were tremendous blast effects…there was a lighting effect within a radius of 20 miles equal to several suns in midday; a huge ball of fire was formed which lasted for several seconds.  This ball mushroomed and rose to a height of over 10,000 feet.”   Physicist Ernest O. Lawrence, an eyewitness to the blast, described his experience of a, “gigantic ball of fire rising rapidly from the earth…The grand, indeed almost cataclysmic proportion of the explosion produced a kind of solemnity in everyone’s behavior immediately afterwards.  There was a restrained applause, but more a hushed murmuring bordering on reverence in manner as the event was commented upon…”  The “Gadget,” which exploded with an estimated force of 15-20 kilotons, slightly more than the Hiroshima bomb, was a rehearsal for the August 6-9 atomic bombings of two Japanese cities and it represented the first of 1,030 nuclear tests conducted by the United States and one of over 2,050 such tests conducted by the nine Nuclear Weapons Club members in the last 75 years.   Before the blast, a wager was made by Manhattan Project scientist Enrico Fermi that the explosion would ignite the atmosphere and devastate New Mexico and possibly the whole of the planet’s biosphere.  Thankfully, Fermi lost his wager.  But that vision of deadly apocalypse came true for hundreds of thousands of people in the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6th and 9th who were vaporized, burned to death, blown into objects and buildings at horrific speed, lacerated, mutilated, and irradiated.  They suffered and some continue to suffer today from the unconscionable use of fission weapons on civilian noncombatants.  Comments:  While many U.S. military and scientific observers celebrated the beginning of the Nuclear Age, others realized that this event may have represented the beginning of the end of the human species.  (Sources:  Jeffrey Mason, Scriptwriter.  “Legacy of Hiroshima.” America’s Defense Monitor. Howard University Television and other PBS stations nationwide first broadcast on August 6, 1995; Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information, 2002, pp. 5, 24; Gar Alperovitz.  “The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb: And the Architecture of An American Myth.”  New York:  Alfred A. Knopf, 1995, pp. 250-251 and “Trinity Test – 1945.” Atomic Heritage Foundation.  June 18, 2014.  http://www.atomicheritage.org/history/Trinity-Test-1945 accessed March 30, 2020.)

    July 26, 1963 – A day after long-time diplomat and septuagenarian W. Averell Harriman, serving as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (drafted quietly by President Kennedy to single-handedly negotiate a treaty with the Soviets without working through hardliner national security channels of the CIA and Pentagon who in JFK’s first year in office proposed to him a highly confidential plan for a preemptive nuclear first strike on the Soviet Union), put his initials as JFK’s representative on the Limited Test Ban Treaty in Moscow on July 25, President Kennedy gave a surprise television address announcing the unprecedented first substantial nuclear arms treaty.  The 35th President announced on this date, “I speak to you tonight in a spirit of hope. Yesterday a shaft of light cut into the darkness.  Negotiations were concluded in Moscow on a treaty to ban all nuclear tests in the atmosphere, in outer space, and under water…But the achievement of this goal is not a victory for one side – it is a victory for mankind. A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step.”  And equally important was Nikita Khrushchev’s role in recognizing that he and Kennedy almost stumbled into a nuclear World War III nine months earlier during the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.  The Soviet premier quickly circumvented hardliner opposition of his own and signed the treaty on August 5.  Despite vociferous right-wing and conservative criticism, the treaty was unexpectedly ratified on September 24, 1963 by the U.S. Senate in large part due to JFK’s embrace of a large-scale publicity and Congressional lobbying campaign for the treaty by Norman Cousins and the Citizens’ Committee for a Nuclear Test Ban.  Comments: It is a criminal travesty that the U.S. and Russia, Trump, Putin and other nuclear powers today have taken serious steps to unravel this and other critically important nuclear arms control treaties despite widespread global opposition to a renewed Cold War and nuclear arms race.  (Sources:  Lawrence S. Wittner. “Looking Back: Norman Cousins and the Limited Test Ban Treaty of 1963.” Arms Control Today. December 2012 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2012-12/looking-back-norman-cousins-limited-test-ban-treaty-1963 and Peter Janney. “Mary’s Mosiac: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder JFK, Mary Pinchot Meyer and Their Vision for World Peace.” New York: Skyhorse Publishing, Inc., 2012, pp. 262-274.)

    August 6, 1945 – Colonel Paul Warfield Tibbets piloted the 509th Composite Group’s B-29 Superfortress bomber named Enola Gay, in honor of the pilot’s mother, from Tinian in the Marianas chain of Pacific Ocean islands to Hiroshima, Japan where the enriched uranium-fueled fission bomb code named “Little Boy” was dropped over a city of a quarter million inhabitants at 8:15:17 a.m. local time.  43 seconds after release and 1,850 feet over the city, the bomb exploded (with a yield estimated to be 12-15 kilotons) registering an air temperature, for a fleeting millisecond of 100 million degrees.  In the city below, 5,400 degree temperatures vaporized thousands of human beings, melted granite, clay roof tiles, and gravestone mica for three-quarters of a mile in all directions from the explosion’s epicenter.  A blast wave of 1,100 feet-per-second blew down everyone and everything left standing that was not previously destroyed by the tremendous heat of the explosion.  The firestorm from the blast, as a result of a huge displacement of air, began to flow back to the epicenter at up to 200 miles-per-hour raising radioactive dust and debris into a mushroom cloud.  78,150 died, 13,983 were missing, and 37,425 injured as an immediate result of the blast.  But tens of thousands more would die of horrendous burns and associated direct radiation impacts within days and weeks and from longer-term radiation-caused cancers for decades afterward.  Two days later, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan and launched a massive invasion of Manchuria and on August 9th hundreds of thousands more Japanese suffered a second atomic bombing (with a yield estimated to be 21 kilotons), from the plutonium-fueled “Fat Man” warhead, at Nagasaki.  Before the bombings, General and later President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, voiced misgivings about the use of these weapons against Japan, “It wasn’t necessary to hit them with that awful thing…”  More than two and a half months before the nuclear attacks, Leo Szilard and two other Manhattan Project scientists reported that Secretary of State James F. Byrnes, “did not argue that it was necessary to use the bomb against the cities of Japan in order to win the war…Mr. Byrnes’ view was that our possessing and demonstrating the bomb will make Russia more manageable in Europe.”   A few years after the bombings, Admiral William D. Leahy, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and previously chief of staff to President Roosevelt (1942-45) and President Truman (1945-49) publicly stated, “It is my opinion that the use of this barbarous weapon at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was of no material assistance in our war against Japan.  The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender…in being the first to use it, we had adopted an ethical standard common to the barbarians of the Dark Ages…wars cannot be won by destroying women and children.”  (Sources:  Craig Nelson.  “The Age of Radiance:  The Epic Rise and Dramatic Fall of the Atomic Era.”  New York:  Scribner, 2014, pp. 211-220 and Gar Alperovitz.   “The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb:  And the Architecture of An American Myth.”  New York:  Alfred A. Knopf, 1995, pp. 3-6, 15, 672.)

    August 7, 1938 – Dr. Helen Caldicott, the world’s foremost medical expert on the humanitarian impact of nuclear war and nuclear power, was born on this date in Melbourne, Australia. Also popularly identified as the single most articulate and passionate advocate of action by global citizenry to address the twin threats to humanity of nuclear war and climate change, the subtitle of her first of many books, “Nuclear Madness,” (1978, reissued as a 1980 paperback) says it all about her penultimate concerns – “The Choice Is Yours: A Safe Future Or No Future At All.”  Dr. Caldicott received her medical degree from the University of Adelaide Medical School in 1961, moved to Boston in 1966 where she became an instructor of pediatrics at Harvard medical School and served on the staff of the Children’s Medical Center there until she resigned in 1980 to work full-time on the prevention of nuclear war. Since then her more than four decades commitment to antinuclear and climate change causes has been unwavering.  Even with her busy schedule while working full-time in Boston, she became a citizens’ lobbyist convincing Australia to file lawsuits in 1971-72 against the French government for their nuclear testing in the South Pacific. In 1975, Dr. Caldicott worked with Australian trade unions to educate their members about the medical dangers of the nuclear fuel cycle, with a particular focus on uranium mining. While living in the United States from 1977 to 1986, she reignited the flame of antinuclear sentiment in a nonprofit group of more than 23,000 doctors – Physicians for Social Responsibility, which went on to play a prominent role in the Nuclear Freeze Movement.  In 1982, Dr. Caldicott also founded the Women’s Action for Nuclear Disarmament (WAND) in the U.S.  Travelling extensively abroad, she helped start other allied nonprofits or governmental medical organizations which led her international umbrella group (International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War) to win a Nobel Peace Prize in 1985. Her long-time global perspective led her to remark in 1982 that, “As a doctor as well as a mother and a world citizen, I wish to practice the ultimate form of preventive medicine by ridding the Earth of these technologies that propagate disease, suffering, and death.” Dr. Caldicott was one of the most prominent medical and scientific minds to recognize on a very timely basis the significance of the December 1983 TTAPS study that warned that the discharge of even a small portion of nuclear arsenals could trigger nuclear winter and not only the destruction of global civilization but possibly the end of our species and countless others on this planet.  Returning to her native Australia in 1987, she ran for the Federal Parliament but ultimately lost the election by the slimmest of margins, a mere 600 votes.  After moving back to the United States in 1995, she lectured at the New School for Social Research, hosted a talk show on WBAI in New York and founded Standing for Truth About Radiation (STAR) on Long Island.  The winner of many prizes and awards for her work including the Lannan Foundation’s 2003 Prize for Cultural Freedom, she also has earned over 20 honorary doctoral degrees and was named by The Smithsonian Institution and Ladies Home Journal as one of the most influential women of the 20th century.  In 2001 she established the U.S.-based Nuclear Policy Research Institute (NPRI) which eventually became Beyond Nuclear.  She has been the subject of several films including “Eight Minutes to Midnight,” which was nominated for an Academy Award in 1981, “If You Love This Planet,” which won an Academy Award in 1982 for Best Documentary, and the 2004 award-winning film “Helen’s War: Portrait of a Dissident.”  From 2010 to 2013, Dr. Caldicott hosted If You Love This Planet, a weekly radio that aired on many community and public radio stations internationally.  Currently, she is President of The Helen CaldicottFoundation/NuclearFreePlanet.org which organizes and runs symposiums and other educational programs to inform the public and media on the dangers of nuclear power and nuclear weapons and promote her foundation’s long-term goal of a nuclear-energy-free and weapons-free, renewable energy-powered world.  During a March 30, 2011 debate on the U.S.-based program Democracy Now, the world’s leading spokesperson for the antinuclear movement succinctly laid out the terrifying threat that every single individual on Earth is subject to because of our species’ illogical and irrational acceptance of nuclear deterrence and nuclear power as necessary and unchangeable paradigms, “If you inhale a millionth of a gram of plutonium (half-life: 24,000 years), the surrounding cells receive a very, very high dose.  Most die within that area, because it’s an alpha emitter.  The cells on the periphery remain viable. They mutate, and the regulatory genes are damaged.  Years later, that person develops cancer.  Now, that’s true for radioactive iodine that goes to the thyroid; cesium-137, that goes to the brain and muscles; strontium-90 goes to the bone, causing bone cancer and leukemia.”  Dr. Calicott’s life-long mission to prevent the unthinkable has successfully resonated with millions of global citizenry who have acted on her words and will continue to fight against these insane doomsday weapons and the stark threat they represent, “The massive quantities of radiation that would be released in a war fought with nuclear weapons might, over time, cause such great changes in the human gene pool that following generations might not be recognizable as human beings.”  (Sources: “Helen Caldicott Biography.” http://www.faqs.org/health/bios/59/Helen-Caldicott.html, “Helen Caldicott, M.D.” http://www.helencaldicott.com/about/

    Helen Caldicott. “How Nuclear Apologists Mislead the World Over Radiation” The Guardian. April 11, 2011, http://www.theguardian.com/environmental/2011/apr/11/nuclear-apologist-radiation which were all accessed April 10, 2020 and other mainstream and alternative media sources.)

    September 3, 2017 – North Korea conducted its sixth and most recent nuclear test, which they claimed was a hydrogen or fusion bomb but many global experts speculated the bomb was a boosted fission bomb, with a magnitude estimated by various international authorities including U.S. intelligence officials to be in the range of 70 to 280 kilotons, approximately four and a half to 18 times as powerful as the bomb dropped by the U.S. on Hiroshima in 1945.  The test, North Korea’s most powerful nuclear blast, took place over a kilometer underground at the Punggye-ri Test Site on this date.  Comments:  The testing of over 2,050 nuclear devices over the last seven decades by the nine nuclear weapons states has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations especially native peoples and hundreds of thousands of military “participants.”  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people today due to nuclear testing.  So despite the few tests it has undertaken, North Korea along with the other eight nuclear weapons states faces legitimate international criticism for its role in adding to the global total of nuclear weapons tests.  But of course, the response to North Korea’s actions must be measured and wielded through the medium of diplomacy.  Such is not the case with the U.S. response to these tests and North Korea’s status as a relatively new nuclear power.  President Donald Trump, whose nuclear saber-rattling has included unprecedented rhetorical threats to use the U.S. nuclear arsenal to destroy entire nations and their populations, went on Twitter to condemn the North Koreans, “Their words and actions continue to be very hostile and dangerous to the United States.”  But consistent with the historical precedent that has seen the U.S. only avoid regime change for Third World challengers to its hegemony in cases where those nations possess nuclear weapons, no military intervention was undertaken (although nuclear threats were made both before and during the Trump administration) against Kim Jong Un’s regime in retaliation for its January 10, 2003 withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its subsequent development of these weapons of mass destruction.  And while President Trump did meet personally with the North Korean ruler three times, at the Singapore Summit in June 2018, in Vietnam in February 2019, and at the DMZ separating North and South Korea in late June 2019, there has not been any significant progress in formally ending the seventy year old Korean conflict and denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.  While some would say that Trump has made more progress with North Korea than recent presidents, his overall disregard and rejection of a plethora of successful bilateral and multilateral nuclear arms control treaties (including the New START or Moscow Treaty which will expire in February of 2021) combined with his numerous destabilizing and irrational public statements that see nuclear weapons, especially lower yield ones, as legitimate and useful parts of U.S. military power make him too dangerous to continue as U.S. commander-in-chief.  It is clear from a wide range of both conservative and progressive governmental and independent global scholars and military experts that the risk of nuclear war has increased significantly since 45 took office.  Hopefully, his actions in mismanaging the U.S. response to the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, his impeachment, the economic downturn, and his general incompetence and political inexperience (as revealed by one of his own top-level administration officials) along with the unprecedented nuclear threat he represents will result in the election of a 46th President on November 3, 2020.  (Sources:  Padraig Collins. “North Korea Nuclear Test: What We Know So Far.” The Guardian. September 3, 2017 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/03/north-korea-nuclear-test-what-we-know-so-far, Josh Lederman and Hans Nichols. “Trump Meets Kim Jung Un, Becomes First Sitting U.S. President to Step Into North Korea.” NBC News. June 30, 2019, Anonymous. “A Warning: A Senior Trump Administration Official.” 2019 book and other mainstream and alternative news media sources.)

    September 15, 1980 – On this date a B-52H bomber (as part of the U.S. Strategic Air Command’s commitment to have nuclear-armed aircraft fueled and ready to go at any hour of the day according to its ‘alert status’ to launch nuclear strikes against the Soviet Union or Soviet bloc nations including China), manned by a crew of six airmen assigned to the 319th Bomb Wing was sitting on the tarmac at Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota.  That evening the aircraft was armed with eight AGM-69A SRAMs (Short Range Attack Missiles) each carrying a W69 warhead with a yield of 170-200 kilotons and four B28 nuclear gravity bombs with a yield of 70 kilotons to 1.45 megatons.  Around 9 p.m. that evening during a routine engine start, the plane’s number five engine burst into flames.  The crew evacuated and firefighters battled the blaze for three hours before getting it under control – 35 mile-per-hour winds extended the time required to put out the fire.  Despite the U.S. Air Force’s initial public position that the fire was very unlikely to trigger a possible nuclear accident, years later in 1988, Dr. Robert Batzel, the director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a key U.S. nuclear weapon research and development facility, indicated during closed door testimony before a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense that this incident had actually come very close to being “worse than Chernobyl.”  A redacted transcript of Batzel’s testimony eventually became public knowledge.  In that testimony, he indicated that a disaster was narrowly avoided telling the Subcommittee that if the wind had been blowing in any other direction, then the intense fire would have been virtually impossible to extinguish resulting in the incineration of the aircraft and the nuclear weapons inside its bomb bays – causing the rocket motors in the SRAMs as well as the conventional triggering explosives jacketing the W69 warheads to explode.  Batzel specifically said that a nuclear explosion would not have resulted but that the blast would have thrown a plume of highly radioactive plutonium into the atmosphere which easily would have impacted a sixty square mile area which including parts of North Dakota and Minnesota and affecting at least 70,000 people living within 20 miles of Grand Forks as well as contaminating water aquifers in the region. While the military and nuclear weapons laboratories have become aware of some of the dangers of Cold War era nuclear weapons and pushed successfully for their removal from the stockpile, consistent with the political decisionmaking of past U.S. presidents, other weapons with perhaps unknown or acceptable defects remain in the U.S. nuclear arsenal or are being added to it in the near future.  Comments:  However more recently Stephen Schwartz, a long-time nuclear weapons analyst and author of the book “Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Since 1940” has noted that in fact a thermonuclear explosion could easily have resulted from this 1980 accident.  Schwartz discovered that a design flaw in the B-28 1.45 megaton bomb meant that if exposed to prolonged heat, two wires located too close to the casing of the warhead could short circuit, arm the bomb, trigger an accidental explosion of the high explosives jacketing the core and set off a nuclear blast that would have spread a deadly radioactive cloud 250 miles northeast into Minnesota and Canada.  In January 1983 this scenario almost occurred, a fire that completely destroyed a B52G bomber at Grand Forks Air Force Base and killed five maintenance personnel.  Most fortunately however, this particular aircraft was not carrying nuclear weapons.  Schwartz recently reiterated that “There have been thousands of accidents involving U.S. nuclear weapons.  In most cases, we can thank good engineering or smart personnel decisions for keeping things from becoming catastrophic.”   But his dire warning that our luck might run out someday soon is chilling when we consider that all nine nuclear weapons states are planning or already have started to build more “improved” doomsday machines, “The more nuclear weapons we have and the more we have on alert (a reference to the current “hair-trigger” alert status of U.S. and Russian land-based ICBMs), the greater the risk of accidents.  We were extremely lucky during the Cold War that no nuclear weapons ever accidentally exploded and no crises got completely out of hand.”  But of course, all it takes is one such incident which could trigger nuclear Armageddon and the destruction of our global civilization and possibly the demise of our entire species. (Sources:  Michael Peck.  “How A Burning B-52 Bomber Almost Triggered Nuclear Catastrophe.” National Interest. Sept. 25, 2019 http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-burning-b-52-bomber-almost-triggered-nuclear-catastrophe-83296 and Joseph Treithick. “The Time When A Burning B-52 Nearly Caused A Nuclear Catastrophe Worse Than Chernobyl.” The War Zone.com. September 20, 2019 http://thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29945/the-time-when-a-burning-b-52-nearly-caused-a-nuclear-catastrophe-worse-than-chernobyl/

    September 28, 1980 – Premiere of the first (The Shores of the Cosmic Ocean) of thirteen episodes of the KCET Los Angeles PBS-produced television series “Cosmos: A Personal Voyage,” hosted by astrophysicist and renowned science popularizer Carl Sagan (a cowriter of the series along with Ann Druyan and Steven Soter).  Over the last 40 years since it first aired, it has become the most popular PBS series in the world with viewership in over 60 nations, winning two Emmys and a Peabody Award after its initial run.  In addition to documenting the history of scientific thought relating to the study of the universe, the series looked at the origins of life on Earth and presented a unique and most valuable speculative perspective about our species’ place in the universe.  Critically, the series also addressed the threats facing humanity, specifically the threat of nuclear war, “The global balance of terror pioneered by the United States and the Soviet Union holds hostage all the citizens of the Earth…But the balance of terror is a delicate balance with very little margin for miscalculation. And the world impoverishes itself by spending a trillion dollars a year on preparations for war and by employing perhaps half the scientists and high technologists on the planet in military endeavors…From an extraterrestrial perspective our global civilization is clearly on the edge of failure in the most important task it faces – preserving the lives and well-being of its citizens and the future habitability of the planet. But if we’re willing to live with the growing likelihood of nuclear war, shouldn’t we also be willing to explore vigorously every possible means to prevent nuclear war? …A new consciousness is developing which sees the Earth as a single organism and recognizes that an organism at war with itself is doomed.”  Sagan, who just a few years later went on with his scientific colleagues, the TTAPS Group, to prove that not only does nuclear war represent an unprecedented catastrophe but in fact, it is the means, through their nuclear winter study, to trigger the mass extinction of most species on Earth including ours.  Nuclear winter, no longer a theory but fact as verified by more recent studies by Rutgers University Professor Alan Robock and colleagues, illustrates that a nuclear war is misnamed, for a large nuclear weapons exchange will instead result in nuclear omnicide or at least the end of our global civilization.  While “Cosmos” provided viewers with a stark warning, it also provided an uplifting alternative of possible human futures, “It is well within our power to destroy our civilization and perhaps our species as well.  If we capitulate to superstition, greed, or stupidity, we can plunge our world into a darkness deeper than the time between the collapse of classical civilization and the Italian Renaissance.  But we’re also capable of using our compassion and our intelligence, our technology, and our wealth to make an abundant and meaningful life for every inhabitant of this planet – to enhance enormously our understanding of the universe and to carry us to the stars.” (Sources: Various mainstream and alternative news media sites and The Carl Sagan Portal at carlsagan.com)

  • This Winter in Nuclear Threat History, 2020

    January 13, 2018 – A little after 8 a.m. local time, Hawaii residents watching television on a peaceful Saturday morning were suddenly shocked and overwhelmed by a broadcast audio message indicating that, “The U.S. Pacific Command has detected a missile threat to Hawaii – Seek shelter immediately, this is not a drill.”  A text message was also sent to millions of e-devices which read as, “Inbound ballistic missile threat enroute to Hawaii – Seek shelter now.”  It was later revealed that an employee of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency had inadvertently triggered this false alert message.  A correction message was sent out 38 minutes after the initial error message was released but for many it was too late as some panicked, others suffered heart attacks or stress-related health impacts while others disregarded the message.  Many had no idea what they should do as governmental instructions encouraging them to shelter-in-place, preferably at an underground location, were not widely disseminated.  Three days later, on Tuesday January 16th, a Japanese television network, NHK, issued a similar warning claiming that North Korea appeared to have launched a missile toward the island nation and urged people to take shelter inside buildings or underground.  In this instance, the error was corrected within minutes and allegedly there were no reports of panic or other disruptions.  Comments: Over the last three quarters of a century, a disturbing number of false nuclear threat alerts have scared the wits out of millions of global citizenry, although during the Cold War (1945-1991) some U.S. military false alerts were only revealed to members of the public a significant time after they happened thanks to the efforts of researchers and activists utilizing the Freedom of Information Act.  These incidents raise serious concerns about the stark possibilities that misperception, miscommunication including erroneous messages, unauthorized or accidental threats, especially made during times of crisis, could inadvertently trigger a nuclear conflict.  That is why it is paramount for the nine nuclear weapons states to immediately de-alert their doomsday arsenals and sign on to the July 7, 2017 U.N.-negotiated Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons at the earliest opportunity.  (Sources: Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura. “Days After Hawaii’s False Missile Alert, A New One In Japan.” New York Times. Jan.16, 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/world/asia/japan-hawaii-alert.html accessed July 3, 2019 and Alex Wellerstein. “This Is Not A Drill: Lessons From The Hawaii False Missile Alert.” The Courier: Newsletter of The Stanley Foundation, Spring 2019.)

    January 17, 1966 – Several hours after leaving its air base near Goldsboro, North Carolina, a U.S. B-52 strategic bomber carrying four Mark-28 hydrogen bombs each one 75 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb, collided in mid-air with a KC-135 tanker aircraft near Palomares, on the southern coast of Spain.  The bomber crashed causing the high explosives jacketing two of the thermonuclear warheads to detonate spreading highly radioactive plutonium dust over a very large agricultural area where tomatoes were grown.  The third bomb landed intact but the fourth nuclear weapon disappeared until sometime later when the H-bomb was found resting on the nearby seabed. Part of the plane landed 80 yards from an elementary school, another section of the aircraft hit the earth 150 yards from a chapel.  A long and expensive search and clean-up operation by U.S. military and civilian authorities was undertaken.  Comments:  Hundreds of nuclear incidents including Broken Arrow accidents have occurred over the decades despite some innovative safety measures pushed on the Pentagon by U.S nuclear weapons laboratories and nongovernmental experts.  Nevertheless, the resulting leakage of nuclear toxins, due to accidents (many still underreported or even completely undisclosed for “national security” reasons) by members of the Nuclear Club have threatened the health and safety of large numbers of world citizenry.  (Sources:  Daniel Immerwahr.  “How to Hide An Empire: A History of the Greater United States.” New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2019, pp. 352-354 and Tony Long.  “January 17, 1966:  H-Bombs Rain Down on a Spanish Fishing Village.”  Wired.com, January 17, 2012.  http://www.wired.com/2012/jan-17-1966-h-bombs-rain-down/ accessed July 3, 2019.)

    January 25, 2016 –A dedicated antinuclear peace activist, Concepcion Picciottio (nicknamed “The Little Giant”), who emigrated to the U.S. from Spain, passed away on this date at the estimated age of 80 years old.  In what some considered as the longest running act of political protest in U.S. history, Ms. Picciotto, beginning in 1981, held a three decade-long vigil in Lafayette Park adjacent to the White House in Washington, DC.  “Connie” or “Conchita,” as she was known to volunteers at the N Street Village housing facility for homeless women, fashioned and displayed a variety of large signs and banners that read, “Nuclear Weapons: A Disgrace to Decency, Civilization, Reason, and Logic,” “Ban All Nuclear Weapons Or Have A Nice Doomsday!” and “Live By the Bomb, Die By The Bomb!”  Comments:  While the involvement in peaceful demonstrations, rhetorical pronouncements, educational activities, protests and political campaigns by celebrities (such as the actor Martin Sheen), business leaders (Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield of Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream), politicians both active and retired (Dennis Kucinich), lawyers (Ralph Nader), retired military officers (such as the late Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll, Jr., a former director of The Center for Defense Information), and medical professionals (Dr. Helen Caldicott) is critical to the future success of nuclear abolition, it is just as seminally important for groups of single activists or local grassroots organizations to grow in size, scope, and importance in the ever-expanding movement by hundreds of millions of global citizenry to eradicate nuclear weapons before it is too late.  Even one additional solitary voice can make a difference.  (Source: Caitlin Gibson, “Pennsylvania Avenue Activist Picciottio’s Vigil Lives On After Her Death – With Some Changes.”  Washington Post. March 1, 2016.)

    February 5, 2020 – This date represents exactly one year until the deadline expires for either the new 46th President of the U.S. or a reelected President Trump to have negotiated with Russia a renewal of the 2010 New START Treaty, which became effective on Feb. 5, 2011.  This “Moscow Treaty,” as it is also called, committed Russia and the U.S. to reducing the number of nuclear warheads and bombs by 30 percent over seven years and specifically set limits of 1,550 warheads for deployed strategic nuclear weapons held by each nation.  On January 28, 2017, Democracy Now reported that aides to President Trump leaked information that during a Putin-Trump phone conference when asked if he favored extending the New START Treaty, the 45th President allegedly responded in the negative and claimed it was another “bad deal negotiated by President Obama.”  Even more telling are the remarks of former National Security Advisor John Bolton who called the treaty “profoundly misguided” in a Wall Street Journal article published shortly after New START was signed.  “The President has made clear,” a senior White House official recently stated, “that he thinks that arms control should include Russia and China and should include all the weapons, all the warheads, all the missiles.”  Evidently we now are being persuaded to believe that the President wants to outdo Obama and past presidents in the area of arms control.  While some applaud this ambitious gesture to allegedly rein in nuclear arms, others worry that Trump is deliberately setting his target too high as a pretext for walking away without any agreement as he is obviously taking the nuclear talks too close to the expiration deadline of New START.  Some experts like Alexandra Bell, a senior policy director at The Center for Arms Control and Proliferation, feel that Trump could care less if he scuttles arms control, “The only reason you bring up China is if you have no intention of extending the New START Treaty.”  Comments: If the Moscow Treaty is not renewed before the Feb. 5, 2021 deadline, U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals would be unregulated for the first time since 1972!  Once again Americans are discovering that the “election” of the host of a reality game show, a fraudulent business man (examples are too many to cite but one of the most recent is the scandalous “Trump University” affair) without any governmental experience who is sadly lacking in knowledge or expertise in the areas of international law, foreign policy, diplomacy, arms control, and the species-threatening history of the extremely dangerous nuclear threat has put the world horrendously closer to an irreversible Armageddon.  The entirety of humanity won’t be able to breathe easy until his reign has ended – if we survive that long! (Sources:  Matthew Chapman. “Experts Warn Trump’s Huge Scheme to Negotiate ‘All The Missiles’ With Russia and China Will Collapse in Failure.” Raw Story. April 25, 2019 https://www.rawstory.com/2019/04/experts-warn-trumps-huge-scheme-negotiate-missiles-russia-china-will-collapse-failure/ and David Cay Johnston. “The Making of Donald Trump.” New York: Melville House, 2016, and “The U.S. Threatened to Withdraw From A Major Nuclear Arms Treaty With Russia.  Now What?” PBS News Hour. Dec. 6, 2018 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-u-s-threatened-to-withdraw-from-a-major-nuclear-arms-treaty-with-russia-now-what both accessed July 6, 2019.)

    February 25, 1986The Wall Street Journal published one of the first nationally distributed mainstream newspaper articles on another serious but little known threat of the nuclear age – uranium mill tailings.  The tailings are the by-product and one of the dangerous side effects of the mining of uranium, an essential component not only of “peaceful” civilian nuclear power plants but also the production of nuclear weapons.  According to a 2016 article in World Nuclear News, over three million pounds (equivalent to about 1,500 tons) of uranium ore was mined in 2015 with the most important mining sites in Utah along with leaching operations conducted at several sites in Wyoming, Texas, and Nebraska.  The WSJ piece described the tailings as fine sand-like residue left over after uranium is extracted from the mined ore.  Uranium-bearing minerals are removed from the mining products in a chemical leaching process involving the use of acids and bases.  The tailing sands contain a deadly sludge that includes about a dozen radioactive nuclides including thorium-230, radium-226 and radon-222 (i.e., radon gas) and are known to retain up to 85 percent of the ore’s original radioactivity and when stored above ground, this radioactive sand can be carried long distances by the wind to negatively impact our biosphere, particularly the human food chain and sources of fresh drinking water.  The likelihood of toxins like selenium and arsenic leaching out beneath these massive tailing mounds and contaminating large amounts of groundwater led the authors of this 1986 article to refer to these tailings as “an ecological bombshell just waiting to blow up.”  The same article also mentioned that the mill tailings represent one of the largest clean-up jobs in American history as millions of tons of this residue should legitimately be buried in geologically stable areas away from vulnerable water aquifers in order to avoid compromising our nation’s water supply.  In 2002, the Department of Energy filed a lawsuit against uranium mining firms decades after they negligently allowed huge amounts of mill tailing residue to contaminate the Colorado River.  The historical legacy of uranium mill tailings also has impacted native peoples in the United States in serious ways despite the fact that the many of these mining activites ended in the 1980s.  From 1944 to 1986 almost 30 million tons of uranium ore were mined under leases signed by the Navajo Nation.  According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), there were over 500 abandoned uranium mines in Navajo lands covering an area of 27,000 square miles in Utah, New Mexico and Arizona.  Legal actions to remedy these abuses have a more recent history and notable successes are unfortunately somewhat limited.  A recent $600 million settlement was announced on May 22, 2017 as administered by the U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona between the EPA and two former uranium mining companies now represented by the subsidiaries of Freeport-McMoRan which called for the cleanup of over 90 abandoned uranium mines and the adjacent mill tailing mounds on Najavo lands in that state.  Comments:  The issue of uranium mill tailings, an international as well as American problem, is in many ways, ‘out-of-sight, out-of-mind.’  It takes a backstage to many other more prominent risks associated with nuclear power and nuclear weapons, including proliferation, nuclear waste generated by decades of nuclear bomb production as well as civilian nuclear power generation, and the threat of nuclear war.  But the tailings issue obviously represents yet another critical reason why phasing out nuclear weapons and power is a global priority.  The tremendous monetary savings associated with ending the wasteful and destabilizing worldwide nuclear arms race will not only fuel the building of new infrastructure, educating a new generation of youth, creating sustainable jobs, providing Medicare for all, but it will also allow for the accelerated cleanup of global nuclear messes and the creation of sustainable, renewable energy sources to help address global warming.  (Sources:  Robinson, Paul, et al., “Uranium Mining and Milling:  A Primer.”  The Workbook. Albuquerque, NM:  Southwest Research and Information Center, 4 (6-7) 1979 https://webarchive.org/web/20100708033445/http://www.sric.org/uranium/1979_SRIC-URANIUM_PRIMER.pdf  and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  “Case Summary: $600 Million Settlement to Clean Up 94 Abandoned Uranium Mines on the Navajo Nation.” https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/case-summary-600-million-settlement-clean-94-abandoned-uranium-mines-navajo-nation both accessed July 17, 2019.)

    March 12, 2007The Boston Globe published an article, “Iran’s Nuclear Vision First Glimpsed at MIT” by Farah Stockman on this date.  The piece noted that in 1974, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in coordination with officials in the Nixon Administration, signed an agreement with representatives of the long-time ally of the United States – the Shah of Iran – to pay MIT physicists a half million dollars in order to train hundreds of Iranian engineers to master the nuclear fuel cycle and uranium enrichment.  Although the Shah’s regime was overthrown in 1979, those same Iranian engineers, and those that they have trained, have worked decades on not only plans to utilize civilian nuclear power but also to develop nuclear weapons.  The successful Iran nuclear agreement of 2015 showed great promise in preventing an Iranian bomb until it was unwisely scuttled by the Trump Administration.  Comments:   This example of U.S.-caused proliferation in Iran was not unusual for the same knowledge and expertise of nuclear proliferation has spread unwittingly in the last 70 years from the U.S. to Britain, France to Israel, Russia to China, and from Pakistan to North Korea.  A quote from American philosopher George Santayana (1863-1852) hits the nail right on the head, “Those who forget history, are condemned to repeat it.”  Today, President Trump has responded affirmatively to long entreaties by Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Saudi royalty along with their Arab allies to build more than a dozen nuclear reactors in the region, which is clearly a violation of past U.S. tradition and laws, particularly the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act of 1978.  Some media reports indicate that this Trump nuclear deal with the Saudis had its beginnings even before his inauguration in January of 2017!  Unfortunately it seems that the U.S., at its own peril, has focused on the alleged benefits of ‘peaceful’ nuclear power for the region rather than scrutinizing recent public statements made by Prince Salman whose ethical standards have been tainted by his alleged involvement in the conspiracy to viciously murder Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October of 2018.  One example is a February 15, 2018 interview by CBS News in which the Prince indicated that the Saudis will develop nuclear weapons if their Islamic rival Iran does so first.  This is why it is critical for all nations on the planet to halt the proliferation of all nuclear materials, knowledge, and fissile products and sign onto the 2017 Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and negotiate an all-encompassing Fissile Materials Control Treaty to halt forever the nuclear arms race and eliminate these doomsday weapons. (Sources:  Many mainstream and alternative news media sites and https://archive.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2007/03/12/irans_nuclear_vision_first_glimpsed_at_mit/ and https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/02/19/trump-administration-sell-nuclear-plants-saudi-arabia/291735702/ both accessed July 29, 2019.)

    March 21, 1961 (Spring – approximate date) – In response to requests from the Kennedy White House, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) formally submitted specific information to the Office of the President on the estimated casualty figures associated with a U.S. nuclear first strike against the Soviet Bloc.  Daniel Ellsberg, the Pentagon Papers whistleblower of 1971, was then someone in the inner circle of nuclear war planning.  His stark remarks about this time period are still as profound today as they were almost sixty years ago, “The total death count from our own attacks (against not only targets in the Soviet Union but also China and Soviet-dominated Eastern Europe) supplied by JCS was in the neighborhood of 600 million dead (revised upwards to one billion, one-third of humanity, when the tremendous destructive impact of the associated firestorms caused by these large magnitude nuclear blasts were factored into the equation), almost entirely civilian, the greater part inflicted in the first day or two, the rest over six months…the graph (of casualties that the JCS provided) seemed to me the pure depiction of evil.”  Ellsberg also noted that, “3,000 warheads would be delivered on the Soviet Bloc and China in the first stage of the execution of the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP)…Most of them I knew would be ground bursts, with fallout that would annihilate the population not only of the Sino-Soviet Bloc but at its neighbors including allies and neutrals…I was looking at the way the civilized world might end…This is what the U.S. had come to…Plans and preparations, awaiting only a presidential order to execute (or lower level officials as I’d discovered) for whose unforeseen consequences the term ‘genocidal’ was totally inadequate.”  The famous whistleblower, who faced over a hundred years in prison in 1971 for his release of the previously hidden trove of documents on unconscionable U.S. political and military decision making during the Vietnam Conflict, concluded that this 1961 SIOP, “exposed a dizzingly irrationality, madness, and insanity at the heart and soul of our nuclear planning.”  Comments: Unfortunately, strong-held prejudices about the efficacy of relying on the twin heavily flawed doctrines of ‘nuclear deterrence’ and ‘peace through strength’ (in a time when over 10,000 U.S. soldiers and contractors have died and over 50,000 have been wounded, as well as the tens of thousands of enemy combatants and innocent civilian casualties have been recorded in Iraq and Afghanistan during the perpetual Global War on Terrorism [GWOT]) pervade the ruling military and political leadership of all nine nuclear weapons states.  Even more pessimistically, the U.S. nuclear arsenal held by STRATCOM is ultimately steered and controlled by a President who confesses he is a nationalist and who sees nuclear weapons as the ultimate expression of American power. Let’s hope that our species can survive the Trump presidency and look forward to a day in the not too distant future when conservatives and progressives alike agree that nuclear war is unwinnable and that nuclear weapons are dangerous anachronisms of a genocidal era in human history and must therefore be eliminated. (Sources:  Daniel Ellsberg. “The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner.” New York: Bloomsbury, 2017, pp. 138-141, Jill Lepore. “This America: The Case for the Nation.” New York: Liveright Publishing Corp., 2019, pp. 24-25, and Christopher T. Mann. “In Focus: U.S. War Costs, Casualties, and Personnel Levels Since 9/11.” Congressional Research Service, April 18, 2019.)

    March 24, 1953 – The second nuclear device, Nancy, of a series of eleven nuclear weapons tests called Operation Upshot-Knothole, was exploded on a 300-foot high tower at the Nevada Test Site on this date with 21,000 soldiers from the four armed services (in an exercise called Desert Rock V) observing from what in retrospect was an ill-advised proximity to these explosions.  This nuclear blast’s magnitude was 24 kilotons, about fifty percent more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.  Comments:  This atmospheric explosion was a snapshot of the entirety of thousands of such detonations which, in total, equaled approximately 29,000 Hiroshima-sized bombs discharged between 1946 and 1998.  The impact of this madness, the deliberate contamination of our fragile biosphere by a plethora of highly toxic radioactive elements, reached all across the planet as in the name of ‘peace’ and ‘deterrence’ U.S, Russian, Chinese and other Nuclear Club military and political leaders waged global nuclear war.  No geographical area was untouched.  Alaskans, Welsh, and Scandinavians were contaminated by Soviet bomb tests at Novaya Zemlya.  Australians and Pacific Islanders were raked by fallout from U.S., British, and French fission and fusion blasts conducted in a wide swath of the Pacific Ocean.  Chinese and Soviet nuclear scientists set off explosions that polluted the Eurasian interior, Indians exploded underground atomic bombs close to the Pakistani border endangering water aquifers while their neighbors responded with fission blasts of their own.  Despite decades of U.S. military classification of the effects of such tests as ‘Top Secret’ and unavailable to the public, eventually dedicated scientists and researchers ascertained the impacts on the United States and the planet.  The Nevada tests delivered to milk-drinking children across the U.S. and the world an average collective dose of radioactive iodine similar to people living in the contaminated zones of the April 1986 Chernobyl nuclear plant accident.  Rates of thyroid cancer in the U.S. tripled between 1974 and 2013 and better detection did not account for all or even most of these increases as some nuclear apologists argued.  In Europe and North America, childhood leukemia, once a medical rarity, increased substantially every year after 1950.  Even today, Australia, hit by Pacific test fallout, still has the highest incidence of childhood cancer worldwide.  Award-winning environmentalist and nuclear historian Kate Brown, who cataloged all these dire global impacts in a recent book, justifiably called the period of nuclear testing “the most unhinged suicidal chapter in human history.”  Unfortunately today as the world is gripped by yet another insane nuclear arms race, one wonders if this forgotten history will be repeated again by a current generation of global Dr. Strangeloves to the extreme detriment of 21st century populations.  Global citizenry must rise up and demand no more nuclear testing and the elimination forever of these doomsday weapons! (Sources:  Kate Brown. “Manual for Survival: A Chernobyl Guide to the Future.” New York: W.W. Norton and Co., 2019, pp. 309-312 and Thomas B. Cochran, William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Milton M. Hoenig. “Nuclear Weapons Databook: Volume II.” Natural Resources Defense Council, 1987, p.153.)

  • A brief review of Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program

    A brief review of Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program

    Click here for a longer version of this article.

    Saudi Arabia is not a nuclear weapons state and has always declared that it is only interested in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The Saudi Kingdom manifested an interest in nuclear energy during the 1960s, and started its civilian nuclear program in the 1970s. In 1977, Saudi Arabia built its nuclear plant for the development of a civilian nuclear program – the King Abd Al-Aziz Centre for Science and Technology (KAACST) – in Riyadh, and in 1988 the Atomic Energy Research Institute (AERI) was established. In that same year, Riyadh signed the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and, since the start of the 21st century, has advocated for the establishment of a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East (MENWFZ). In 2006, in fact, Saudi Arabia, and six other member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – announced that the Council was commissioning a study on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. It was on this occasion that Saudi Arabia outlined plans to construct up to 16 large nuclear reactors over the course of 20 to 25 years to provide the Kingdom with 17 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2040.[1] Two years later, Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding under the auspices of the Atoms for Peace program with the Bush administration, through which the U.S. would sell nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel to Saudi Arabia for its development of a civil nuclear program, specifying that no support would be given to the building of an atomic bomb by Riyadh. Shortly after the memorandum with the U.S., Saudi Arabia established nuclear cooperation agreements with France (2011); South Korea (2011); China (2012); and other nuclear companies such as INVAP, in Argentina (2015); Rosatom, in Russia (2015); CNEC, in China (2016 and 2017); JAEC and JUMCO, in Jordan (2017). It had also initiated talks with the government of the Czech Republic, Russia and United Kingdom with the purpose of fulfilling its aspiration to build its nuclear rectors.[2]

    Suspicions about Riyadh’s true intentions surfaced at the end of the 1990s, when rumors about possible collusion on a joint nuclear weapon program between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia surfaced due to several high-profile interactions between the two governments.[3] To increase the level of suspicion was (and still is) the consideration that even though Saudi Arabia has been part of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since 1962, the Crown hasn’t subscribed to the comprehensive safeguards agreement, thus preventing IAEA inspectors from accessing its nuclear facilities.

    In 2016, Nuclear Threat Initiative reported: “Saudi Arabia possesses only a rudimentary civil nuclear infrastructure, and currently lacks the physical and technological resources to develop an indigenous nuclear weapons capability.”[4] It became even more of a concern when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared in 2018 that if Iran were to develop a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia would follow suit.[5] Recent developments that are throwing Iran into open hostility with the United States and its allies in the region – Saudi Arabia being one of them – make Prince bin Salman’s declaration worrisome.

    The threat posed by Iran adds to some murky indicators surrounding Riyadh’s nuclear program, and some revelations regarding recent secret deals with the Trump administration. Altogether, they strongly suggest that Saudi Arabia is considering developing nuclear weapons with the complicity of the United States. In April 2019, Bloomberg published some satellite pictures showing the development, over two years, of a columnar vessel at a reactor facility in Riyadh that would plausibly contain atomic fuel, and that seemed to be nearly completed.[6] This represents a problematic factor, considering the impossibility that the IAEA could pursue inspections.

    The same article elucidates that the Trump administration is advancing sales of nuclear power plants and technology to Saudi Arabia, and had kept the deals away from Congressional scrutiny. The six secret authorizations are known as Part 810 authorizations, which would authorize sharing U.S. nuclear power technology with Saudi Arabia. To this regard, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has refused to disclose the nature of the authorizations when asked to do so by Congress.

    Finally, the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal satisfies economic interests. In fact, the nuclear energy market is very slim, and there are many lobbyists who can exercise pressure to induce a government – and U.S. government constitutes no exception – to enter into deals with countries that do want to invest on a nuclear program. It is known that there are numerous lobbyist forces in the U.S. that can be interested in the deal, which include: a few American energy firms, such as General Electric, NuScale, TerraPower and Westinghouse; Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who has a strong friendship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and might have some connections with the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal as a way to recover from financial losses; Michael Flynn, a retired Army lieutenant general and President Donald Trump’s first national security adviser, who has been trying to secure a deal of this kind with the Middle East for years and is currently under investigation by the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Reform.

    The U.S. administration argued that there is no direct linkage between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons, and declared that it is working to ensure that Saudi Arabia’s program develops transparently and only for civil purposes. However, any nuclear power plant that has been built (or is planned) in Saudi Arabia will be fueled with uranium that can be enriched to uranium-235, which is what is needed to build a nuclear bomb. Moreover, all nuclear reactors produce plutonium, which is also used to make nuclear weapons. Even if concerns over the possibility that Saudi Arabia is pursuing a nuclear weapon are cast aside, a recent approval of an $8 billion sale of conventional weapons to Saudi Arabia by the Trump administration without Congressional approval (again) has met with Congressional concern and has contributed to increased tensions in the region for two reasons, at least. First, the deal was approved following the crisis with Iran in June 2019 after Iran downed a U.S. Global Hawk drone in the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after this event Mike Pompeo confirmed the U.S. was trying to build a global coalition against Iran, not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe and Asia, thus adding fuel to the fire.[7] Second, there is concern that the weapons could be used by Saudi Arabia in Yemen to kill thousands of civilians.

    The muddy atmosphere surrounding the U.S. – Saudi nuclear deal has not been dispelled. We are left only with the hope that, if and when clarity is achieved, it won’t be too late.

    Footnotes

    [1] “Nuclear power in Saudi Arabia,” World Nuclear Association (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-o-s/saudi-arabia.aspx).

    [2] For further details, see ibidem.

    [3] “Saudi Arabia – Nuclear,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, July 2016 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/saudi-arabia/nuclear/).

    [4] Ibidem.

    [5] Tirone, Jonathan, “Before Saudi Arabia goes nuclear, it may have to follow Iran’s lead,” Bloomberg, March 6, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/before-saudi-goes-nuclear-it-may-have-to-follow-iran-s-lead).

    [6] Tirone, Jonathan, “First images of Saudi nuclear reactor show plant nearing finish,” Bloomberg, April 3, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-03/first-images-of-saudi-nuclear-reactor-show-plant-nearing-finish).

    [7] Morello, Carol, “Iran crisis looms over Pompeo’s trip to Middle East, Asia,” The Washington Post, June 23, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pompeo-confronts-dual-crises-as-he-begins-trip-to-middle-east-asia/2019/06/23/c77180d0-95db-11e9-8d0a-5edd7e2025b1_story.html?noredirect=on).

  • Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Program

    Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Program

    Click here for a shorter version of this article.

    From declaration of support of a nuclear-weapons-free-zone to suspicions

    Saudi Arabia is not a nuclear weapons state and has always declared that it is only interested in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. However, recent developments in Iran are increasing the militarization of the Middle East. These together with some murky indicators and secrecy surrounding Riyadh’s nuclear program, strongly suggest that Saudi Arabia is considering developing nuclear weapons, while avoiding inspections.

    Saudi Arabia manifested its own interest in nuclear energy during the 1960s, and started its civilian nuclear program in the 1970s. Its nuclear plant for the development of a civilian nuclear program – the King Abd Al-Aziz Centre for Science and Technology (KAACST) – was built in 1977 in Riyadh. Subsequently, the Atomic Energy Research Institute (AERI) was established in 1988. In that same year, Riyadh signed the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and, since the start of the 21st century, has advocated for the establishment of a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East.

    There has been credible speculation that Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Pakistan’s and Iraq’s nuclear weapons programs was a signal of shared ambitions. These speculations were reinforced by the declaration of former Saudi diplomat Muhammed al Khilewi, who defected to the United States in the 1990s and leaked that his government had plans to acquire a nuclear weapon.[1] The veracity of these statements, however, is still shrouded in doubt and was not confirmed by the Clinton administration, which granted asylum to al Khilewi.

    In December 2006 Saudi Arabia, and six other member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – announced that the Council was commissioning a study on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. It was on this occasion that Saudi Arabia outlined plans to construct up to 16 large nuclear reactors over the course of 20 to 25 years to provide the Kingdom with 17 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2040.[2] Two years later, Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding under the auspices of the Atoms for Peace program with the Bush administration, through which the U.S. would sell nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel to Saudi Arabia for its development of a civil nuclear program, specifying that no support would be given to the building of an atomic bomb by Riyadh. Shortly after the memorandum with the U.S., Saudi Arabia established nuclear cooperation agreements with France (2011); South Korea (2011); China (2012); and other nuclear companies such as INVAP, in Argentina (2015); Rosatom, in Russia (2015); CNEC, in China (2016 and 2017); JAEC and JUMCO, in Jordan (2017). It had also initiated talks with the government of the Czech Republic, Russia and United Kingdom with the purpose of fulfilling its aspiration to build its nuclear rectors.[3]

    Suspicions about Riyadh’s true intentions surfaced at the end of the 1990s, when rumors about possible collusion on a joint nuclear weapon program between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia surfaced due to several high-profile interactions between the two governments.[4] However, as had happened previously, the veracity of the nuclear program could not be established. Officially and publicly, in 2015, Saudi Arabia applauded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran, the P5 – namely, China, France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russia -, plus Germany. However, soon after Saudi Arabia expressed concerns over Iran’s nuclear program.

    In 2016, Nuclear Threat Initiative reported: “Saudi Arabia possesses only a rudimentary civil nuclear infrastructure, and currently lacks the physical and technological resources to develop an indigenous nuclear weapons capability.”[5] It became nonetheless a country of concern when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared in 2018 that if Iran were to develop a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia would follow suit.[6]

    In April 2019, Bloomberg published some satellite pictures showing the development, over two years, of a columnar vessel at a reactor facility in Riyadh that would plausibly contain atomic fuel, and that seemed to be nearly completed.[7] The discovery gave international experts good reason to be alarmed. In fact, Saudi Arabia does not allow inspections and is not part of the international legal framework that ensures that civil nuclear programs won’t be transformed to military uses. The images do nothing but cast doubt over Saudi Arabia’s credibility. Despite the fact that Riyadh has repeatedly stated that the country does not intend to develop a nuclear weapon, some contradictions are worthy of consideration.

    First, the Saudi government has repeatedly maintained that its nuclear power program constitutes a way to move from fossil fuels consumption for a twofold reason: for climate change imperatives and for diverting all its fossil fuels resources to the international market, rather than to internal consumption. However, as brilliantly argued in an article published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Saudi Arabia is not aggressively seeking to pursue solar energy, which would be the most economically convenient source of energy for the country, alternative to fossil fuels, even when Iran was limited by the 2015 deal.[8] As the article points out:

    The limited efforts in installing solar power capacity on the part of the Saudi government suggest that climate action and economics may not be the driving motivations for its extensive nuclear energy plan. Indeed, members of the Saudi regime have, on other occasions, made it clear that their interest in nuclear energy derive from the idea that it would help them acquire the capability to make nuclear weapons and match Iran, whose regional status is seen to have risen as a result of its uranium enrichment program.

    To this point, some have argued that solar energy cannot benefit Saudi Arabia long-term because it is not exportable, and, therefore, cannot provide a reliable source of income for the country. However, this argument does not take into account that, until all countries start relying on alternative energy sources instead of fossil fuels, if it’s really in Saudi Arabia’s interest to go green, they can rely on solar energy domestically and keep exporting oil and gas externally, as Riyadh’s previous statements seem to imply.

    Dirty business with the Trump administration

    Second, Bloomberg’s article elucidates that the Trump administration is advancing sales of nuclear power plants and technology to Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry approved six secret authorizations, known as Part 810 authorizations, which would authorize sharing U.S. nuclear power technology with Saudi Arabia. This move is creating alarm within the U.S. Congress, as well as the international community. The Part 810 authorizations refers to the process set forth in 10 Code of Federal Regulations Part 810, which, under the authority of section 57.b of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, allows the U.S. Secretary of Energy to engage, directly or indirectly, in the production of special nuclear material outside the United States, and share technological information – but not pieces of equipment – for the functioning of nuclear reactors. The information is non-classified, but contains sensitive details about nuclear energy reactors U.S. companies are trying to sell to Saudi Arabia and, unlike Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act (AEA) of 1954,[9] they don’t require congressional oversight.

    While respecting the need for U.S. companies to protect their proprietary information from competitors, the U.S. Congress has demanded that the Department of Energy share more information about the Part 810 authorizations with the Subcommittee Asia, the Pacific and Nonproliferation of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs on, in order for Congress to have sufficient information to fulfill its constitutional oversight responsibilities, and to fulfill legal obligations that require that the Congress must be “fully and currently informed,” as the Atomic Energy Act requires. The U.S. House of Representatives presented an Interim Staff Report in February 2019, titled “Whistleblowers Raise Grave Concerns with Trump Administration’s Efforts to Transfer Sensitive Nuclear Technology to Saudi Arabia.” The report collected testimonies by whistleblowers from within the Trump administration, and states:

    The Trump Administration’s interactions with Saudi Arabia have been shrouded in secrecy, raising significant questions about the nature of the relationship. In 2017, President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, orchestrated a visit to Saudi Arabia as the President’s first overseas trip. Mr. Kushner also met on his own with then-Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who subsequently ousted his cousin, Mohammed bin Nayef, launched a crackdown against dozens of Saudi royal family members, and reportedly bragged that Mr. Kushner was “in his pocket.” In October 2018, the brutal murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was met with equivocation by President Trump and other top Administration officials. This month, the White House ignored a 120-day deadline for a report on Mr. Khashoggi’s killing requested on a bipartisan basis by the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. Within the United States, strong private commercial interests have been pressing aggressively for the transfer of highly sensitive nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia—a potential risk to U.S. national security absent adequate safeguards. These commercial entities stand to reap billions of dollars through contracts associated with constructing and operating nuclear facilities in Saudi Arabia—and apparently have been in close and repeated contact with President Trump and his Administration to the present day. However, experts worry that transferring sensitive U.S. nuclear technology could allow Saudi Arabia to produce nuclear weapons that contribute to the proliferation of nuclear arms throughout an already unstable Middle East.[10]

    The Report raises concerns over the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal. When questioned, U.S. Secretary Perry said that, if not provided by the U.S., Saudi Arabia will look for the support of China and Russia for the development of their nuclear program. In his view these countries do not support non-proliferation, and the U.S., by establishing deals with the Saudis, is therefore establishing a framework for monitoring that Saudi Arabia’s program is compliant with non-proliferation requirements.[11] U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been asked by congressman Brad Sherman – Chair of the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs on Asia, the Pacific and Nonproliferation – whether the deal would provide Saudi Arabia with nuclear technology before they enter into agreements that will prevent the reprocessing and enrichment of uranium. Pompeo responded that U.S. State Department and the Department of Energy have been working jointly to not allow that to happen. However, when further rebuked that the Saudis might want to avoid international inspections and close control of their nuclear program because they, ultimately, want to build the nuclear bomb, Pompeo vaguely responded: “We are working to ensure that the nuclear power they [Saudi Arabia] get is something we understand and doesn’t present that risk.”[12] However, as correctly highlighted by Congressman Sherman, the secrecy shrouding the six authorizations renders Pompeo’s declaration before Congress inconsistent.

    Third, the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal satisfies both political and economic interests. Politically, the possession of nuclear weapons is seen as protection, as well as prestige, especially for countries located in unstable regions, surrounded by perceived threatening neighbors. From an economic perspective, the nuclear energy market is very slim, so lobbyists can exercise pressure to induce a government to enter into deals with countries that do want to invest on a nuclear program, as is the case of the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal. A few American energy firms, including General Electric, NuScale, TerraPower and Westinghouse are interested in securing nuclear deals with countries that aim to develop a nuclear program. They don’t seem to care whether a country has nuclear weapons aspirations, although this is primarily a governmental responsibility. Westinghouse, the largest nuclear reactor supplier in the United States, filed for bankruptcy protection in 2017, and was purchased by the Canadian Company Brookfield Business Partners, a subsidiary of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. This company has, in turn, leased an unprofitable building in New York City – the 666 Fifth Avenue – from President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner’s family’s real estate company – Kushner Companies LLC – in 2007. The purchase of the 666 Fifth tower was intended to place the Kushners at the top ranks of New York real estate from their headquarters in New Jersey, where they were accumulated a huge portfolio of garden apartment complexes. Kushner Companies LLC moved their company headquarters to 666 Fifth, from where they intended to develop an empire that included former industrial buildings in Brooklyn, apartments in Maryland and development sites in Jersey City, N.J. But they were unable to get the office rents they expected in 2007, making it difficult to pay the initial $1.8 billion debt on the building because the recession hit causing the company to enter into debt.[13]  The price paid by the Kushner Companies LLC was the highest price ever paid for a single office building in the United States, and the Kushners have been trying to off-load the debt for many years. Although this deal has no apparent connection with the deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the timing of the Brookfield’s deal suggests the contrary. Moreover, Jared Kushner and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are very close friends, an element that throws suspicion over the reason behind the deal. To complicate things further, other participants interested in the deal with Saudi Arabia have exercised an enormous amount of pressure. These are retired Army lieutenant general and President Donald Trump’s first national security adviser Michael Flynn, who has been trying to secure a deal of this kind with the Middle East for years and is currently under investigation by the House Committee on Oversight and Reform. The U.S. House of Representatives 2019 Report mentioned above elucidates how Flynn worked closely on the plan with a group of retired U.S. generals and admirals who had formed a private company to promote it.[14] The IP3 Corporation, a nuclear technology company established in 2016 by retired U.S. military officials, is, indeed, another actor interested in pursuing the deal with the Saudi Crown.[15]  Together with the Kushner Company, these companies raise issues of conflict of interest with regard to the deal they have been pursuing.

    The U.S. administration argued that there is no direct linkage between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons, and declared that it is working to ensure that Saudi Arabia’s program develops transparently and only for civil purposes. However, any nuclear power plant that has been built (or is planned) in Saudi Arabia will be fueled with uranium that can be enriched to uranium-235, which is what is needed to build a nuclear bomb. Moreover, all nuclear reactors produce plutonium, which is also used to make nuclear weapons. The most dramatic aspect is that Saudi Arabia has been part of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since 1962, but hasn’t subscribed to the comprehensive safeguards agreement, which would allow IAEA inspectors to access its nuclear facilities. The Kingdom only signed the Small Quantity Protocol (SQP), which “was made available to States with minimal or no nuclear material and no nuclear material in a ‘facility.’”[16] Technically, Saudi Arabia signed the IAEA Safeguards Agreements, which has been in force since January 2009,[17] but “[t]he original small quantities protocol suspends the application of many provisions of the comprehensive safeguards agreement,”[18]  thereby not allowing the IAEA inspectors to access Saudi Arabia’s nuclear facilities. Yukiya Amano, former IAEA’s director general, stated clearly that before importing nuclear fuel, Saudi Arabia would have to agree to a program of inspections and other safeguards. He appealed to Saudi Arabia to withdraw from the SQP, which he has defined as “old ways of doing business,”[19] and conclude and implement IAEA’s additional protocols, instead. So far, Saudi Arabia has not responded to the IAEA’s request.

    Even if concerns over the possibility that Saudi Arabia is pursuing a nuclear weapon are cast aside, a recent approval of an $8 billion sale of conventional weapons to Saudi Arabia by the Trump administration without Congressional approval has met with Congressional concern and has contributed to increased tensions in the region for two reasons, at least. First, the deal was approved following the crisis with Iran in June 2019 after Iran downed a U.S. Global Hawk drone in the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after this event Mike Pompeo confirmed the U.S. was trying to build a global coalition against Iran, not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe and Asia, thus adding fuel to the fire.[20] Second, there is concern that the weapons could be used by Saudi Arabia in Yemen to kill thousands of civilians. So far, the Trump administration has failed to fully explain its role in the war against Yemen and members of Congress have heavily criticized U.S. support to Saudi Arabia, considering its horrifying human rights record.[21] The U.S. Senate approved a joint resolution in July 2019 that prohibits the selling of the weapons.[22] However, for it to become effective, the U.S. Congress will need to overcome a presidential veto by supporting the resolution with a two-thirds vote.

    There are at least three signs that indicate that Saudi Arabia might be in the process of building nuclear weapons, and constitute reasons for concern. First, the small research reactor is estimated to be completed by the end of this year. While it is considered to be too small to represent a nuclear proliferation risk, the secrecy surrounding its construction is raising suspicion.[23] With its obligation as a non-nuclear weapons state under the NPT, Saudi Arabia would have to accept IAEA’s scrutiny over its nuclear program. But Riyadh is not allowing IAEA’s inspections and, so far, has not withdrawn from the SQP agreement. Second, there are signs that the deal with the Kushner Companies LLC is directed at selling nuclear material to the Kingdom while avoiding Congressional control and public scrutiny. Third, the refusal by the Trump administration to disclose the details of the six authorizations it has granted Saudi Arabia is surrounded by an unusual level of secrecy. It is vital that this type of deal is supported by full transparency and control. That not being the case, there is enough reason to believe that the intention of both the U.S. administration and Saudi Arabia is to provide the latter with nuclear weapons. Only time will allow the public and policymakers to fully understand the nature of the U.S.-Saudi deal. Considering the dangers this deal contains, clarity might be achieved only after Saudi Arabia will have developed a bomb, most probably in the immediate aftermath of its first nuclear test. Once again, the U.S. government is embarking on the foolish role of international arbiter of all the countries on Earth, and places itself as the only exception, dangerously as well as arrogantly. The muddy atmosphere surrounding the U.S. – Saudi nuclear deal has not been dispelled. We are left only with the hope that, if and when clarity is achieved, it won’t be too late.

    Footnotes

    [1] Fitzpatrick, Mark (2008) Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In The Shadow of Iran, London: International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), p 42.

    [2] “Nuclear power in Saudi Arabia,” World Nuclear Association (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-o-s/saudi-arabia.aspx).

    [3] For further details see ibidem.

    [4] “Saudi Arabia – Nuclear,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, July 2016 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/saudi-arabia/nuclear/).

    [5] Ibidem.

    [6] Tirone, Jonathan, “Before Saudi Arabia goes nuclear, it may have to follow Iran’s lead,” Bloomberg, March 6, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/before-saudi-goes-nuclear-it-may-have-to-follow-iran-s-lead).

    [7] Tirone, Jonathan, “First images of Saudi nuclear reactor show plant nearing finish,” Bloomberg, April 3, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-03/first-images-of-saudi-nuclear-reactor-show-plant-nearing-finish).

    [8] Murphy, Aileen and M.V. Ramana, “The Trump administration is eager to sell nuclear reactors to Saudi Arabia. But why?,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, April 16, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/the-trump-administration-is-eager-to-sell-nuclear-reactors-to-saudi-arabia-but-why/).

    [9] Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act (AEA) of 1954 establishes the conditions and outlines the process for major nuclear cooperation between the United States and other countries. In order for a country to enter into such an agreement with the United States, that country must commit to a set of nine nonproliferation criteria. As of January 15, 2019, the United States has entered into 26 nuclear cooperation agreements that govern nuclear cooperation with 49 countries, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Taiwan. The nine nonproliferation criteria for section 123 agreements are as follows: 1) Nuclear material and equipment transferred to the country must remain under safeguards in perpetuity; 2) Non-nuclear-weapon states partners must have full-scope IAEA safeguards, essentially covering all major nuclear facilities. 3) A guarantee that transferred nuclear material, equipment, and technology will not have any role in nuclear weapons development or any other military purpose, except in the case of cooperation with nuclear-weapon states. 4) In the event that a non-nuclear-weapon state partner detonates a nuclear device using nuclear material produced or violates an IAEA safeguards agreement, the United States has the right to demand the return of any transfers. 5) U.S. consent is required for any re-transfer of material or classified data. 6) Nuclear material transferred or produced as a result of the agreement is subject to adequate physical security. 7) U.S. prior consent rights to the enrichment or reprocessing of nuclear material obtained or produced as a result of the agreement. 8) Prior U.S. approval is required for highly-enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium obtained or produced as a result of the agreement.  An agreement permitting enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) using U.S. provided material requires separate negotiation. 9) The above nonproliferation criteria apply to all nuclear material or nuclear facilities produced or constructed as a result of the agreement. Section 123 requires that the Department of State submit a Nuclear Proliferation Assessment Statement (NPAS) explaining how the nuclear cooperation agreement meets these nonproliferation conditions. Congress has a total of 90 days in continuous session to consider the agreement, after which it automatically becomes law unless Congress adopts a joint resolution opposing it. (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/AEASection123).

    [10] U.S. House of Representatives, “Whistleblowers Raise Grave Concerns with Trump Administration’s Efforts to Transfer Sensitive Nuclear Technology to Saudi Arabia,” Interim Staff Report, February 2019 (Retrievable at https://oversight.house.gov/sites/democrats.oversight.house.gov/files/Trump%20Saudi%20Nuclear%20Report%20-%202-19-2019.pdf Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [11] Lister, Tim and Tamara Qiblawi, “Saudi nuclear program accelerates, raising tensions in a volatile region,” CNN, April 7, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/06/middleeast/saudi-arabia-nuclear-reactor-iran-tensions-intl/index.html).

    [12] “Congressman Brad Sherman Questions Secretary of State Mike Pompeo,” YouTube Video, Published on March 27, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9HTNMN9irk).

    [13] Bagli, Charles V. and Kate Kelly, “Deal gives Kushners cash infusion on 666 Fifth Avenue,” The New York Times, August 3, 2018 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/03/nyregion/kushners-building-fifth-avenue-brookfield-lease.html).

    [14] Morning, Joe, “Flynn pushed to share nuclear tech with Saudi Arabia: Report,” MSNBC, February 20, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/flynn-pushed-to-share-nuclear-tech-with-saudi-arabia-report-1445329987612). See also Colman, Zac, “House report bare White House feud over Saudi Arabia nuclear push,” Politico, February 19, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/19/michael-flynn-saudi-arabia-1174531).

    [15] Reuters, “Trump’s friend tried to profit from Middle East nuclear deal, lawmakers say,” The Guardian, July 29, 2010 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/29/tom-barrack-saudi-arabia-nuclear-deal-envoy).

    [16] https://www.iaea.org/topics/safeguards-legal-framework/more-on-safeguards-agreements (Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [17] https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/status-sg-agreements-comprehensive.pdf (Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [18] https://www.iaea.org/topics/safeguards-legal-framework/more-on-safeguards-agreements (Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [19] Tirone, Jonathan, “Before Saudi Arabia goes nuclear, it may have to follow Iran’s lead,” Bloomberg, March 6, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/before-saudi-goes-nuclear-it-may-have-to-follow-iran-s-lead). See also Tandon, Shaun, “IAEA demands safeguards from Saudi Arabia on first nuclear reactor,” The Times Of Israel, April 6, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.timesofisrael.com/iaea-asks-saudis-for-safeguards-on-first-nuclear-reactor/).

    [20] Morello, Carol, “Iran crisis looms over Pompeo’s trip to Middle East, Asia,” The Washington Post, June 23, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pompeo-confronts-dual-crises-as-he-begins-trip-to-middle-east-asia/2019/06/23/c77180d0-95db-11e9-8d0a-5edd7e2025b1_story.html?noredirect=on).

    [21] U.S. House of Representatives – Committee on Foreign Affairs, “Engel floor remarks on arms sales resolution of disapproval,” Press release, July 17, 2019 (Accessed September 12, 2019 https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-releases?ID=6B678239-8B0B-43E0-8EC2-98AA4535ECC7).

    [22] S.J.Res.36 – A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval of the proposed transfer to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the Kingdom of Spain, and the Italian Republic of certain defense articles and services.116th Congress (2019-2020) (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/36).

    [23] Borger, Julian, “To import nuclear fuel, Saudi Arabia must agree to inspections – IAEA Chief, The Guardian, April 5, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/05/to-import-nuclear-fuel-saudi-arabia-must-agree-to-inspections-iaea-chief).

  • A short overview of Iran-U.S. relationship

    A short overview of Iran-U.S. relationship

    Click here for a longer version of this article.

    The tensions that are currently characterizing the relationship between the United States and Iran have not always been the reality. It was rather colonialism and abuse of power that shaped the history of the Islamic Republic for so long, and motivated Iran to pursue its own nuclear program.

    When the country was still Persia, social movements seeking for constitutional reforms and the dismantling of the monarchy were crushed by Soviet and British interference. The first popular uprising in 1908 had the aim of establishing a constitutional system and was supported by an American teacher and missionary, Howard C. Baskerville, who gave his life for the revolution. The Iranian Constitution House in Tabriz still hosts a bronze bust bearing the writing: “Howard C. Baskerville – Patriot and Maker of History.”

    Following the initial success of the revolution, the Constitution was established. Moved by a sentiment of trust and administration, Persia turned to the United States and demanded a person that could help reorganize Persian finances. The Soviet Union and Great Britain started putting immense pressure on Tehran for it to refuse the U.S.’s help. Following its refusal to comply, the Soviet Union and Great Britain attacked Persia on December 24, 1911, and the monarchy was re-established.

    The First World War turned Persia into a battlefield where Germany, Great Britain, the Soviet Union and Turkey fought against each other. Moreover, Persia was denied by the British to claim compensation for the damages suffered during the war, nullifying its claims for national sovereignty. Moreover, the Persian monarch allowed the Anglo-Persian Oil Company to occupy an entire province in the southwest of Persia, and Britain could exploit Persian natural resources almost exclusively.

    The development of anti-British sentiments facilitated the development of strong ties between Persia – which changed its name to Iran in 1935 –[1] and Nazi Germany. However, the Soviet Union and Britain managed to re-establish the previous areas of influence, and led Iran to declare war on Germany during the Second World War.

    Following its entrance into WWII the United States could exert its influence in Iran. Having lost its trading partnership with Germany, which caused enormous economic problems, Iran asked for American help once again. The U.S. appointed Arthur Chester Millspaugh with the task of helping Iranian finances from 1942 to 1945, but he favored the advancement of U.S. ambitions in Iran.

    Subsequently, the history between Iran and the U.S. turned bitter with the occurrence of three major events. The first event occurred in 1953, when the Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammed Mossadegh, announced Iran would nationalize the country’s oil industry. The British found this unacceptable and convinced the United States that getting rid of Mossadegh would favor U.S. national interests. He was ousted through a coup d’état and replaced by Mohammad Reza Shah. It was at around this time that Iran started to develop a limited nuclear program, and received cooperation from western countries. The United States also, participated by selling Iran a 5-megawatt research nuclear reactor in 1957 and highly enriched uranium as part of the Atoms for Peace program.[2] Iran enjoyed a period of nuclear cooperation with the United States until 1979.

    The second event that badly affected U.S.-Iran relationships took place in 1979. Despite their cooperation in the nuclear sphere, many Iranians harbored deep anti-U.S. and anti-Shah sentiments, and became predisposed to revolution. During this revolution, on November 4, 1979, Iranian revolutionaries entered the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held hostage 52 American diplomats for 444 days. At this point, the U.S. and Iran declared the end of their diplomatic relationship. The cutting supply of highly enriched uranium by the U.S. in the aftermath of the Iranian hostage crisis induced Iran to seek assistance from Argentina, France, and Russia in order to continue with the development of its own nuclear program. Suspicions that Iran was developing a clandestine nuclear weapons program frequently surfaced amongst the international community, and caused Iran to be subjected to harsh sanctions, pushed, in particular, by the U.S. The sanctions reinforced Iran’s desire to develop its own nuclear program, as it is legitimately entitled to do under the NPT. The harsh sanctions regime placed on Iran hasn’t taken in consideration the fact that Iran never breached its obligations under the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which the Iranian government signed in 1968 and ratified in 1970.

    Finally, the third major event that badly impacted the U.S.-Iran relationship saw President George W. Bush listing Iran on to the “axis of evil.” Bush didn’t consider that Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, who was elected in 1997, had worked hard to achieve reconciliation with the U.S., and offered help to the U.S in Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 2001 attacks to the Twin Towers in New York and on the Pentagon in Washington D.C. Moreover, thousands of Iranians took to the streets in solidarity with the U.S.

    The election of President Barack Obama in 2008 brought an air of renewal. In his first year as president, Obama embarked on a tour of the Middle East and North Africa, attempting to stimulate open dialogue. He was also the first American president to officially state his willingness to move forward to overcome decades of mistrust that had built over the years between the U.S. and Iran. His commitment evolved into the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in partnership with the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council – namely, China, France, Russia, and the UK – Germany and Iran (P5+1 and Iran). Although not perfect, the JCPOA dramatically reduced the tensions that had solidified though the years, and paved the way to more scrupulous and frequent inspections on Iran’s nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

    The efforts that led to adoption of the JCPOA were nullified by President Donald Trump, who, in May 2018, formally withdrew the United States from the JCPOA, reinstated the banking and oil sanctions previously lifted, and reignited the psychological war against Iran. Dramatically, Iran decided to stop abiding by the commitments established in the JCPOA in July 2019, and shortly thereafter exceeded the agreed-upon limits to its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, starting to enrich uranium to a higher concentration. This quantity is still far from the ninety percent purity required for nuclear weapons, but it adds elements of instability, fear and distrust within the international community. Because of the sanctions unilaterally imposed, the Trump administration has left the global community with few levers to mitigate Iran’s support for what the U.S. itself considers violent proxy groups in the Middle East. Once again, the United States and Iran seem to be on the brink of war, with an increased possibility that Iran could retaliate against Israel or the United States and vice versa. The U.S. violation of the 2015 deal has also increased the possibility of an arms race in the Middle East and the fueling of sectarian conflicts in Syria and Yemen. President Trump’s policies toward Iran have been disastrous, indeed.

    Footnotes

    [1] The Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, overthrew the last United States-backed monarch of Iran, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, and replaced his government with an Islamic Republic during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. On February 11, 1979 Ayatollah Khomeini changed the official name of Iran into “Islamic Republic of Iran.” “Iran” and Islamic Republic of Iran” will be used interchangeably in the text.

    [2] Bodansky, David (2005) (2nd ed.), Nuclear Energy: Principles, Practices And Prospects, New York: Springer, p. 481.

  • Historical Account of Iran-U.S. Relationship

    Historical Account of Iran-U.S. Relationship

    Click here for a short version of this article.

    History and background

    The relationship between the United States and Iran deserves a close examination for understanding how colonialism and abuse of power have shaped the history between these two countries and defined their relationship. For many, the time in history that marked the downfall of the relationship between Iran and the U.S. is November 4, 1979. On this day Iranian students invaded the American Embassy in Tehran and held U.S. hostages for 444 days. For this reason, in 1980, the U.S. formally ended the diplomatic relationship with Iran, one hundred and twenty-four years after it formally began in 1856. The two countries have not always been enemies.

    In the city of Tabriz, in the Constitution House in the northwest of Iran, there is a bronze bust bearing the writing: “Howard C. Baskerville – Patriot and Maker of History.” Howard Baskerville was an American teacher and missionary who went to Persia (now Iran) in 1907 to teach at the American Memorial School in Tabriz, a city that was historically the epicenter of progressive movements in the country. In 1908, the city became the center of the Persian constitutional revolution movement against the Shahs, who became unpopular because of their autocratic and economically unproductive rule of the country. Not only were they not benefitting the socio-economic conditions of the Persian people; they were also oriented to grant significant concessions to the main colonial powers that were dominating in Persia: namely, the Soviet Union and Great Britain.

    The constitutional revolution had its roots in a popular movement that arose in 1906, the year before Baskerville arrived in the country. The movement was supported by the clergy, journalists, businessmen, the general bazaar class and many others in society. It was directed at establishing an accountable and responsible government that could help establishing favorable socio-economic conditions for the people, and the assertion of the national sovereignty of Persia. Because of the revolution, the Shah was induced to make important concessions. First and foremost was a parliament, the Majlis, to be elected every two years, composed of elected officials and a cabinet that could function as its administrative-executive organ. The two entities were to write the new Constitution and had exclusive authority over legislative, financial and diplomatic matters. To the Persian people, the Constitution was the source of equality before the law, freedom, security of property, free press, universal education and other fundamental human, civil and political rights. On August 6, 1906, Muzaffar ad-Din Shah Qajar signed the Constitution shortly before dying (in 1907) and being replaced by his despotic son, Muhammad-Ali Shah Qajar. The new Shah denied that the parliament could play any role in matters of state and politics, and quickly rescinded the new Constitution with the help of Great Britain and the Soviet Union. In August 1907, he ratified the Anglo-Soviet agreement of St. Petersburg through which the north of Persia fell under Soviet influence, and the south became Great Britain’s zone of influence leaving a neutral zone in between that would be the object of dispute years later. The British Foreign Minister at that time, Lord Edward Grey, declared, “Persia … was not in reality a viable entity.”[1] In 1908 he bombarded the Majlis, with the military and political support of the colonial powers, and ordered the executions of the government functionaries. The main purpose of the constitutional movement became impossible to achieve: the socioeconomic condition of the Persian people didn’t get any better, and rather than affirming Persia’s national sovereignty, he caused the country to completely fall under foreign occupation. The people of Persia did not surrender, and turmoil developed in the city of Tabriz. In this fight, Baskerville, who supported the Persian revolution by joining the front-line fighting, was shot dead in 1909, making him a national hero. He is mostly remembered for this affirmation: “The only difference between me and these people is my place of birth, and this is not a big difference.”[2]

    The revolution against the autocratic colonial regime succeeded in many cities in Persia and the resistance fighters made their way to Tehran; Muhammad Ali Shah Qajar was forced into exile in the Soviet Union and the Constitution was reinstated in the summer of 1909. At this time, the Majlis appealed to the United States and asked for the recommendation of a person who could reorganize and manage Persia’s finances. This move was motivated by trust and admiration toward the U.S. administration, which suggested lawyer and banker William Morgan Shuster. His presence posed a problem for the Soviet Union and Great Britain because his main intention was to make Persia a sovereign state, free from colonialism. Unfortunately, this attempt failed and both the Constitution and the Majlis did not last long because of the exploitative and imperialistic dominion exercised by the Soviet Union and Great Britain over Persia. The Soviet Union and Great Britain exercised immense pressure on the Majlis, and when the Persian government refused to be subdued, the Soviet Union attacked Tehran and Great Britain moved its troops against the south of the country, causing the Persian government to fall on December 24, 1911.

    After the country went through a reign of colonial domination, things deteriorated further with the start of WWI: at this point, in fact, Persia turned into a battlefield between British, German, Soviet and Turkish forces. In four years of war, Persia had eight prime ministers, and its geopolitical position changed when the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 caused the Soviet Union to evacuate Persia, leaving the country totally in the hands of the British, who wanted to extend their dominion to the north.

    When WWI ended, British Foreign Secretary George Curzon prohibited any discussion of Persia’s claim for compensation at the 1919 Paris Peace Conference, denying, in so doing, Persia’s claims to national sovereignty as well. President Woodrow Wilson didn’t do much to prevent it because Persia’s geographical location served Britain’s aims toward Egypt, Iraq, Afghanistan, India, Burma and Singapore. These ambitions did not materialize, however. The Soviet withdrawal left space for an anti-royal jangalis movement – a rebellion against the monarchist rule of the Qajar central government of Iran – that aimed to establish an Iranian Soviet Socialist Republic in Persia, and managed to gain terrain quickly and successfully. It proposed democratic-reformist reforms, not socialist, but elements of communism were still present in it. Other movements within Persian society were also present and active; this created a fragmented society that challenged the advancement of British interests. In response to this threat, Great Britain suppressed the jangalis and other leftist movements, and established the conditions through which Reza Shah Pahlavi could rise as the new Persian monarch. His authority was used to secularize society and centralize power in his hands. He used the military as a tool to suppress any autonomy movement in the country, and supported British interests in return. Under his reign Persia acquired new urban construction; the foundation of the University of Tehran; an improved education system; the advancement of women’s rights; and the protection of religious minorities. However, the regime established by Reza Shah prevented the Persian people from benefitting from their country’s natural resources because he allowed the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) to occupy an entire province in the southwest of Persia and exploit Persia’s oil resources. In fact, Britain owned most of the company shares. In 1932, when the British announced their intention to further reduce Persian shares, Reza Shah announced that he intended to cancel the concessions made to Great Britain. Great Britain reacted with military force and obtained 30 more years of concessions.

    The unpopular British presence in the country facilitated the development of ties between Persia – which changed its name to Iran in 1935 –[3] and Nazi Germany. In fact, Germany had a strong presence in Iran due to political and economic interest. This reinforced the bond between the two countries, and allowed Germany to exercise a large ideological influence on Iranian nationalists and become predominant in Iran’s foreign trade between 1939 and 1941.

    At the beginning of WWII Iran declared neutrality; however, Germany continued its activities in Iran. When Germany invaded the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union decided to join the Allies alongside Britain, and both demanded that Reza Shah expel Germany from Iran. Reza Shah did not respond promptly to this request and, as a consequence, the Soviet Union entered Iran alongside Great Britain on August 25, 1941, and the Shah was forced to abdicate. Again, the country was divided into two areas of influence: the Soviet Union in the north, Great Britain in the south. Reza Shah’s successor, Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, signed an alliance of non-military assistance with the Allies and Iran declared war on Germany.

    After the United States entered WWII in December 1941 its influence on Iran could be restored. Losing the trading partnership with Germany posed economic problems for Iran, which again asked for American help, and Arthur Chester Millspaugh was appointed with the task of helping Iranian finances from 1942 to 1945. However, with Millspaugh, the United States started advancing imperial ambitions in Iran. Together with the Soviet Union and Great Britain, the U.S. signed the Tehran Declaration, following a meeting among U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin in Tehran, which was held between November 28 and December 1, 1943. It was intended to guarantee independence and territorial integrity to Iran after the end of the war. In fact, the United States, the Soviet Union and Great Britain issued a “Declaration of the Three Powers Regarding Iran.” Within it, they thanked the Iranian government for its assistance in the war against Germany and promised to provide Tehran with economic assistance both during and after the war. Most importantly, the U.S., British, and Soviet governments stated that they all shared a “desire for the maintenance of the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Iran.”

    Subsequently, three major events contributed to enmity in the relationship between Iran and the U.S. The first one occurred in 1953, when the Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammed Mossadegh, announced Iran would nationalize the country’s oil industry. The British found this unacceptable and convinced the United States that getting rid of Mossadegh would favor U.S. national interests. Therefore, through the CIA, the U.S. conducted a coup d’état to forcefully topple the democratically elected government of Iran, and re-established Mohammad Reza Shah as the leader of the country. He became more dictatorial than his father was, and enforced policies that vastly benefitted the U.S.

    The second event took place more than twenty years later. Up to 1977, many Iranians harbored deep anti-U.S. and anti-Shah sentiments, and became predisposed to revolution. The leader of the uprising was Ayatollah Khomeini, a conservative cleric who championed Iranian independence and led the country to the toppling of the Shah. During this revolution, on November 4, 1979, the Iranian revolutionaries entered the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held hostage 52 American diplomats for 444 days, until January 19, 1981, when the Algiers Accords were signed. This event caused U.S.-Iran relationship to totally break down, and diplomatic relations with Iran were severed in April 1980. Moreover, the American government froze $12 billion of Iranian assets, the vast majority of which remain frozen to this day.

    Immediately following the hostage crisis, the U.S. supported Iraq’s invasion of Iran in 1980. The ensuing eight years of war exacerbated the tensions between the two countries. During the war, Iraqi chemical weapons were used against Iranians, causing the death of thousands of military personnel and civilians. The U.S. engaged its own military directly against Iranian targets and prevented Iran from getting loans from international financial institutions. In July 1988, as the Iran‐Iraq war continued, the U.S. navy stationed in the Persian Gulf shot down an Iranian passenger plane (the Iran Air Flight 655) flying over Iranian airspace, killing 290 Iranian civilians, 66 of whom were children. A few years after the end of the war between Iran and Iraq, an opportunity to redefine positively the relationship between the U.S. and Iran opened with the presidential electoral victory of Mohammad Khatami in 1997. Khatami opted for conciliation with the West in general, and the U.S. in particular. Remarkably, he offered cooperation and help to the U.S in Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 2001 attacks to the Twin Towers in New York and on the Pentagon in Washington D.C, and thousands of Iranians took to the streets in solidarity with the U.S. Notwithstanding Iranian help, President George W. Bush listed Iran as a state on the “axis of evil” on the occasion of his infamous speech in 2002, when he declared that Iran threatened the peace of the world, along with Iraq and North Korea. Bush branding Iran as a member of the ‘axis of evil’ was the third event that negatively affected the relationship between the U.S. and Iran. As Sarah Witmer points out: “The truth that Iran had limited relations with North Korea and very poor relations with Iraq, and no connection to Osama bin Laden or to the 9/11 was irrelevant to Bush and his agenda.”[4]

    The last two major events were accompanied by the imposition of economic sanctions against Iran, which increased in recent years in response to Iran’s nuclear program. Sanctions have had little impact on the ruling establishment, but have had a massive impact for the Iranian people. In fact, Iran’s economy has been crushed by the sanctions, which have badly affected the economic, scientific and military sectors for more three decades. Economic sanctions not only limited commercial relations between the U.S. and Iran, but also imposed penalties and severe restrictions on U.S. and non‐U.S. companies that wanted to invest on Iran’s gas industry. Also, the U.S. has implemented a complete embargo on U.S. citizens’ abilities to deal with Iran. The imposition of economic sanctions was accompanied by the U.S. refusal to recognize the post-revolution Iranian government and further enforcement of policies that, throughout the years, have encouraged and supported separatist movements, thus compromising the stability of the country while putting its territorial integrity in jeopardy.

    Another factor that has created distance between Tehran and Washington is Iran’s financial support (together with Syria) to Hezbollah, a Shi’a paramilitary organization that emerged in Lebanon to fight Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon during the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990). The U.S. considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization and blames it, and by extension Iran, for several bombings during the Lebanese Civil War that resulted in American casualties (i.e. the 1983 U.S. Embassy Bombing in Beirut where 17 American soldiers, marines and CIA personnel died; the Beirut barracks bombing where 241 American servicemen were killed).[5]

    Finally, to fuel this complicated history of enmity from both sides, nuclear allegations against Iran have now become a focal point of Iran’s relationship not only with the U.S., but also with many of its allies.

    Iran’s nuclear history 
and position within the international community

    It is not proven that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. However, in its quest for sovereignty, the pursuit of certain civilian nuclear capabilities is within Iran’s rights. The country has sought for many years a nuclear energy program, similar to one that the Shah of Iran established in the 1950s. Under the Shah, Iran started to develop a limited nuclear program, and received cooperation by western countries. The United States, in particular, sold Iran a 5-megawatt research nuclear reactor in 1957 as part of the Atoms for Peace program,[6] and Iran enjoyed a period of nuclear cooperation with the United States from the 1950s until the 1970s.

    This cooperation obviously ended with the 1979 Revolution and the end of the diplomatic relationship between the two countries during the hostage crisis. Because of a strong Iranian domestic opposition, foreign pressure, and bomb damage during the Iraq-Iran war, the country was compelled to end its nuclear program. The U.S. cut its supply of highly enriched uranium, but a few years later, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was willing to assist Iran to advance its nuclear program, an attempt that was stopped by the U.S. In the late 1980s, however, Iran managed to obtain practical help from France (in 1985) and Argentina (1987-1993) and obtained the delivery of enriched uranium. Also in the 1990s, Russia became a major partner with Iran, and provided the country with technical information and experts.

    In September 2002, an Iranian dissident group revealed the existence of two previously undisclosed nuclear facilities in Iran, a discovery that led the IAEA to express concerns over Iran’s lack of transparency. The international community, and the U.S. in particular, became suspicious of Iranian nuclear ambitions, and feared that Tehran could establish a clandestine nuclear weapons program. The IAEA undertook intensive investigations, and found that Iran had pursued a secret nuclear program for several decades,[7] but no evidence related to a nuclear bomb was found. Following this discovery, Iran was requested to enter negotiations with the IAEA, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, in order to regulate its nuclear program. The outcome of the negotiations was that Iran suspended its uranium enrichment process; however, it resumed it in August 2005.

    In March 2006, the IAEA referred the matter to the United Nations Security Council, citing “serious concern” at the lack of clarity in its dealings with Iran. In the aftermath of the referral, the United Nations Security Council issued a statement stressing the importance of Iran re-establishing its suspension of its uranium enrichment process and requesting a report from the IAEA on Iranian compliance within thirty days. One month later, the IAEA Director General, Mohammed El Baradei, reported to the Security Council, noting that Iran had failed to show full transparency and active cooperation. While the Agency acknowledged that Iran had continued to respect the IAEA Safeguards Agreement, it also noted that Iran had decided to cease implementation of the IAEA Additional Protocol, and emphasised the need for confidence-building measures on the part of Iran.

    As the United Nations Security Council members negotiated an appropriate response to the IAEA report, the EU took steps to resolve the dispute. On June 6, 2006, Javier Solana, then High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy,[8] presented Iranian leaders with a package of political and economic incentives aimed at convincing Iran to cease uranium enrichment, but established the cessation of all uranium enrichment processes as a pre-condition for the pursuit of formal negotiations. Iran refused to give a prompt reply, and was therefore referred back to the Security Council, which, on July 31, 2006, passed a resolution demanding suspension of “all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development, to be verified by the IAEA.”[9] In addition, the Security Council requested a report on Iranian compliance from the Director General of the IAEA by August 31, 2006. The resolution carried an implied threat of sanctions or other “appropriate measures” under Article 41 of the United Nations Charter that didn’t involve the use of force. One month later, Iran had still not suspended its enrichment program, and in fact there remained “outstanding issues” with Iran’s dealings with the IAEA. In September 2006, talks between the EU and Iran resumed.[10]

    Iran has always declared that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes and is in compliance with the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), although the IAEA Board of Governors concluded its non-compliance with the NPT’s Safeguards Agreement multiple times – i.e. 2003, 2005, and 2006. However, the Agency has never found evidence of any diversion of nuclear material for a non-peaceful use of its nuclear program, and most experts and the IAEA itself recognize that non-compliance with the Safeguards Agreement does not imply that Iran is in breach of the NPT. However, this is not the U.S. position. In fact, the U.S. has always described Iran’s nuclear activities as a direct breach of the NPT and as an attempt directed at fabricating nuclear weapons, as demonstrated by the September 2009 Congressional Research Service Report. In sustaining its position, the U.S. discounts the June 2007 conclusion of the Foreign Select Committee of the British Parliament: “Although Iran has been found in non-compliance with some aspects of its IAEA safeguards obligations, Iran has not been in breach of its obligations under the terms of the NPT.”[11]

    The United States has always made extensive use of the United Nations Security Council to demand that Iran suspend its nuclear enrichment activities. Since June 2006, the UN Security Council condemned Iran’s nuclear program by issuing ten resolutions in nine years. With the exception of the first one, all imposed heavy sanctions on Iran, such as an arms embargo, freezing assets, monitoring of Iranian banks, inspection of ships and aircraft, and the imposition of measures that prevented Iran from accessing the international economy through participation in organizations such as the World Trade Organization. In addition to targeting Iran with sanctions, in 2002, the Bush administration allegedly considered using nuclear weapons against underground Iranian nuclear facilities.[12]

    In 2003, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom began nuclear negotiations with Iran, after a resolution between the IAEA and Iran fell through. The negotiations secured an agreement, but the election of hardline conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 created a fracture, and the negotiations were officially halted once it became known that he was continuing the development of Iran’s nuclear program. The United States officially entered the nuclear negotiations in 2006, but remained on the periphery and avoided direct contact with the Islamic Republic.

    In 2006, the New York Times published an article by Javad Zarif, then Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations, in which he elucidated the steps made by Iran to meet the requests advanced by the international community by doing the following:

    “[To] present the new atomic agency protocol on intrusive inspections to the Parliament for ratification, and to continue to put it in place pending ratification; permit the continuous on-site presence of IAEA inspectors at conversion and enrichment facilities; introduce legislation to permanently ban the development, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons; cooperate on export controls to prevent unauthorized access to nuclear material; refrain from reprocessing or producing plutonium; limit the enrichment of nuclear materials so that they are suitable for energy production but not for weaponry; immediately convert all enriched uranium to fuel rods, thereby precluding the possibility of further enrichment; limit the enrichment program to meet the contingency fuel requirements of Iran’s power reactors and future light-water reactors; begin putting in place the least contentious aspects of the enrichment program, like research and development, in order to assure the world of our intentions; accept foreign partners, both public and private, in our uranium enrichment program. Iran has recently suggested the establishment of regional consortiums on fuel-cycle development that would be jointly owned and operated by countries possessing the technology and placed under atomic agency safeguards. Other governments, most notably the Russian Federation, have offered thoughtful possibilities for a deal. Iran has declared its eagerness to find a negotiated solution – one that would protect its rights while ensuring that its nuclear program would remain exclusively peaceful. Pressure and threats do not resolve problems. Finding solutions requires political will and a readiness to engage in serious negotiations. Iran is ready. We hope the rest of the world will join us.”[13]

    These offers did not divert the UN Security Council and Germany from uncompromisingly requesting that Iran suspend its enrichment program. This uncompromising attitude put forward by the U.S. and its European allies has exacerbated the tension. Iran has always asserted in response that there is no legal basis for it to be constantly referred to the UN Security Council since the IAEA has never proven that previously undeclared activities were conducted for the purpose of building nuclear weapons.

    The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): a small step toward conflict transformation

    The elections of President Barack Obama in the U.S. in 2008 and 2012, and President Hassan Rouhani in Iran in 2013 seemed to presage that relations could move forward, but both presidents were put under pressure by the distrust and hatred that people within their respective countries were still holding. In his first year as president, Obama embarked on a tour of the Middle East and North Africa, attempting to stimulate open dialogue. He was also the first American president to officially state his willingness to move forward to overcome the decades of mistrust that had built over the years between the two nations in his Cairo speech on June 4, 2009.[14] Moreover, while addressing the Iranian people, Obama recognized the achievements and historical prestige of the Persian Empire, and its contribution to civilization. He showed respect to the Islamic Republic, and emphasized his commitment to diplomacy. It was in this climate that, one year after Obama was elected President of the United States, his administration began full participation in the nuclear negotiations. At first the negotiations happened secretly and were mediated by Oman, but were interrupted because of very tense relationship that marked the relationship between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the United States. However, when, in 2013, Rouhani succeeded Ahmadinejad and became the new President of Iran, the negotiations that had been interrupted during Ahmadinejad’s presidency resumed, showing more transparency on the Iranian side. They evolved into what would lead to one of Obama’s major achievements of his presidency: the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in partnership with the other four permanent members of the UN Security Councils – namely, China, France, Russia, and the UK – Germany and Iran (P5+1 and Iran).

    The most important element in the negotiations was that Obama recognized Iran’s right to uranium enrichment, and accepted two of Iran’s requests: namely, the release of multiple Iranian prisoners and an increased number of visas for Iranian students. Four prisoners were released and the number of Iranian students accepted to study in the U.S. doubled. As Chase McCain explains: “When Obama came to office there were few concrete measures that he could take to amend relations with Iran—there was no war, there was no occupation to end. Shifting rhetoric was one of the few and one of the most effective ways to improve relations with the Islamic Republic.”[15] Moreover, recognizing Iran’s right to develop a nuclear program was a diplomatic move that recognized Iran’s national sovereignty, which it had sought for many years, especially because the pursuit of peaceful nuclear power is a right of all Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty signatories, including Iran.

    Part of Rouhani’s candidacy was the promise to regain dignity for Iran and the Iranian people. The P5+1’s only uncompromising position in the negotiations was preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The P5, Germany and Iran reached an historic agreement, which required the neutralization of half of Iran’s twenty percent enriched uranium, and the cessation of enrichment above five percent. It prevented any further development of enrichment plants or the heavy-water reactor at Arak; denied the possibility that Iran could develop new enrichment locations, reprocessing or development of a reprocessing facility, new centrifuges; and imposed a reduction by two-thirds of its current centrifuges. The IAEA was selected as the official inspector of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and the agreement determined that the IAEA could access Iran’s nuclear supply chain, and all uranium mines and mills. The negotiating parties agreed that these provisions would have moved Iran far from the breakout timeline – that is, the time that it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon – from two or three months to one year.  In return for these concessions, Iran received sanctions relief – with the exception of trade embargo, and all sanctions related to human rights abuses, terrorism and ballistic missiles. The deal further clarified that the sanctions would be immediately put back in place in case of non-compliance with the JCPOA. With the relief of the sanctions, Iran could develop commercial relationships with China, India, and Russia, and become the eighteenth largest world economy. The 2015 pact effectively halted Iran’s nuclear advances and reopened a lucrative market for European trade.

    Steps toward retrogression

    As Sarah Witmer writes: “From an optimistic perspective, the JCPOA is a model for peaceful conflict resolution, a symbol of international and cross- cultural cooperation, and the hope-filled culmination of decades of complex, tumultuous history.”[16] However, immediately after the signing of the JCPOA, McCain wrote: “‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”[17] While perhaps a hackneyed phrase, George Santayana’s famous quote is an important lesson in diplomacy. […] The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is not destined for success no matter what: that is to say, it is vital that the United States government continues to promote positive relations with the Islamic Republic and hold up its end of the agreement. It is possible that, with the election of a Republican president, relations with the Islamic Republic would once again turn sour.”[18] This turned out to be an unfortunate prophecy.

    Trump, in his run for presidency, introduced elements of heavy criticism to the deal achieved by Obama. The fact that the IAEA certified, in January 2017, when Trump became the 45th President of the United States, that Iran had met all the nuclear agreement’s preliminary requirements, including taking thousands of centrifuges offline, rendering the core of the Arak heavy-water reactor inoperable, and selling excess low-enriched uranium to Russia, and that, as a response to this major achievement, the U.S., the European Union, and the United Nations repealed or suspended all the sanctions, was of no help for avoiding what followed next.

    Immediately after his inauguration, Trump asked the European Union to fix what he considered flaws in the deal, namely the fact that it does not address Iran’s missile development, its regional role and the fact that some of the JCPOA’s restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities expire over time. The deal itself would have expired in 2025. However, “Iran’s total enrichment capacity would have been unchanged until 2028. Other restrictions would have remained in place until 2035. The ban on developing any kind of nuclear weapons would have been indefinite, as would the close monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency.”[19] Trump’s aggressive rhetoric against the JCPOA represented also, indirectly, an antagonist message against North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and would be a way to force North Korea into a permanent nuclear and missile disarmament deal. As history has proven so far, Trump’s attitude has not only exacerbated tensions with Iran to their maximum extent, but also convinced North Korea that the only reliable factor the country can rely upon is its own nuclear arsenal. In May 2018, Trump formally withdrew the United States from the JCPOA and reinstated the banking and oil sanctions previously lifted. He applied these sanctions not only to U.S. nationals, but also to foreign nationals. Trump’s decision rescinded a deal that, even though not perfect, had allowed eleven inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities rigorously conducted by the IAEA in three years.

    In response to the U.S. unilateral decision, the EU countries, in order to keep the deal alive, launched a barter system, known as INSTEX, to facilitate transactions with Iran outside of the U.S. banking system for food and medicine. Other countries, including some U.S. allies, continued to import Iranian oil under waivers granted by the Trump administration. These waivers would be ended a year later in order to bring Iran’s oil export to zero and totally deprive the country of its principal source of revenue, affecting, in so doing, the lives of millions of Iranian people. On its side, Iran continued to abide by its commitments while also starting to sink back to sentiments of bitterness towards the U.S. that had been so pervasive before the 2015 deal. Moreover, Trump looked for support at the G20 Summit in Tokyo, Japan, in June 2019, for a new more aggressive deal with Iran. Facing this situation, the Islamic Republic formally declared the end of the diplomatic relationship with the United States.

    The end of waivers was identified by Iran as a “psychological war”[20] toward the Islamic Republic. Dramatically, Iran decided to stop abiding to the commitments established in the JCPOA and, in July 2019, exceeded the agreed-upon limits to its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, and then began enriching uranium to a higher concentration. This quantity is still far from the ninety percent purity required for nuclear weapons, but it adds elements of instability, fear and distrust within the international community. It must also be highlighted that the global community has been left without any comprehensive restrictions on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and no lever to mitigate Iran’s support for what the U.S. itself considers violent proxy groups in the Middle East. Once again, the United States and Iran seem to be on the brink of war, with an increased possibility that Iran could retaliate against Israel or the United States and vice versa. The 2015 deal repeal has also increased the possibility of an arms race in the Middle East and the fueling of sectarian conflicts in Syria and Yemen. President Trump’s policies toward Iran have been disastrous, indeed.

    Footnotes

    [1] Malici, Akan and Stephen G. Walker (2017) Role Theory And Role Conflict In U.S.-Iran Relations. Enemies Of Our Making, New York and London: Taylor & Francis, p. 25.

    [2] Ibidem., p. 26.

    [3] The Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, overthrew the last United States-backed monarch of Iran, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, and replaced his government with an Islamic Republic during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. On February 11, 1979 Ayatollah Khomeini changed the official name of Iran into “Islamic Republic of Iran.” “Iran” and “Islamic Republic of Iran” will be used interchangeably in the text.

    [4] Witmer, Sarah (2017) The Ghost Of History: US-Iran Relations and The Undermining of the JCPOA, BA Dissertation, Department of Political Science
School of General Studies, Columbia University, p. 24.

    [5] Shoamanesh, Sam S. (2009) “History Brief: Timeline of U.S.-Iran realtions until the Obama Administration,” MIT International Review. (Retievable at http://web.mit.edu/mitir/2009/online/us-iran-2.pdf Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [6] Bodansky, David (2005) (2nd ed.), Nuclear Energy: Principles, Practices And Prospects, New York: Springer, p. 481.

    [7] Congressional Research Service Report – Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status, 2009, Congressional Research Service. (Retrievable at https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R40094 Accessed on September 12, 2009).

    [8] On June 4, 1999 Javier Solana was appointed by the Cologne European Council as the Secretary-General of the Council of the European Union, an administrative position. During his term, it was decided that the Secretary-General would also be appointed High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). Javier Solana covered both roles for ten years during which he represented the EU abroad when there was an agreed common policy by EU member states. Prior to Solana, Jürgen Trumpf covered both roles from May 1, 1999 until October 18, 1999. After Solana, the two offices became separate, and, from then on, different representatives have covered each role.

    [9] United Nations Security Council Resolution 1696, UN Doc S/RES/1696.

    [10] Macpherson, Marisa (2006) “Iran, Uranium and the United Nations. The international legal implications of Iran’s nuclear program,” LL.B Dissertation, University of Otago.

    [11] https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmfaff/memo/496/ucm1002.htm (Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [12] Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen, “U.S. Nuclear Threats: Then and Now,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 62, Issue 5, September 1, 2006.

    [13] Zarif, Javad, “We in Iran don’t need this quarrel,” The New York Times, April 5, 2006. (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/05/opinion/we-in-iran-dont-need-this-quarrel.html).

    [14] “The President’s Cairo Speech: A New Beginning” retrievable at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/foreign-policy/presidents-speech-cairo-a-new-beginning (Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [15] McCain, Chase, (2015) “The History of US-Iran Relations and its Effect on the JCPOA Negotiations,” Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection, 2241, p. 21.

    [16] Witmer, Sarah (2017) “The Ghost Of History: US-Iran Relations and The Undermining of the JCPOA,” BA Dissertation, Department of Political Science
School of General Studies, Columbia University, p. 12.

    [17] Santayana, George (1954) The Life of Reason. New York: Scribner.

    [18] McCain, Chase, “The History of US-Iran Relations and its Effect on the JCPOA Negotiations” (2015). Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection. 2241, p. 29.

    [19] Borger, Jiulian, “Trump approach to Iran and North Korea is a gamble for glory,” The Guardian, May 1, 2018. (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/01/trump-approach-to-iran-and-north-korea-is-a-gamble-for-glory).

    [20] Holpuch, Amanda, “Donald Trump says US will no longer abide by Iran deal – as it happened,” The Guardian, May 8, 2018. (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/may/08/iran-nuclear-deal-donald-trump-latest-live-updates).

  • India and Pakistan’s Nuclear Programs (short version)

    India and Pakistan’s Nuclear Programs (short version)

    Click here for an expanded version of this article.

    For almost a century, India was ruled by the British Crown prior to its independence in 1947. The partition of India gave rise to two sovereign states – the Dominion of India and the Dominion of Pakistan. The partition process largely explains the reciprocal animosity, and can explain the development of their nuclear weapons programs.

    During the partition of India, 10 to 12 million people became refugees, flooding across the border in each direction, while thousands met with sectarian violence, resulting in death. The division of the Indian subcontinent is recalled to have created perhaps one of worst exodus of human history, and a perennial dispute over the region of Kashmir, home to both Muslims and Indians, which is divided by the Line of Control.

    In the aftermath of the partition, both India and Pakistan expressed the desire to invest resources in a nuclear program. India was the first to achieve it. In 1948, Indian Prime Minister Jawarhal Nehru created the Indian Atomic Energy Commission. Although this was aimed at the development of a nuclear program for peaceful purposes, Nehru declared: “I have no doubt India will develop her scientific researches and I hope Indian scientists will use the atomic force for constructive purposes. But if India is threatened she will inevitably try to defend herself by all means at her disposal.”[1]

    India started its atomic energy production process in 1954, with the establishment of the Bhabba Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Trombay. It also benefitted from the cooperation with the governments of Canada, France, Great Britain and the United States and was placed under the auspices of the U.S. Atoms for Peace program. The creation of the Bhabba Centre prompted Pakistan to establish, in 1956, the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC).

    In the 1950s, concerned with India’s growing regional predominance, Pakistan advanced military and economic assistance requests to the United States, adding as a motivation that Pakistan’s geographical position could benefit the U.S. in its fight against communism. In addition to offering conventional support, the United States gave Pakistan its first nuclear reactor in 1962, the Pakistan Atomic Research Reactor (PARR-I), based in Nilore, Islamabad. The sympathy shown by the U.S. to Pakistan would exacerbate the tensions between both countries and India, and would induce India to align itself with the Soviet Union, thus extending Cold War dynamics to South Asia and motivating a long history of reprisals between the two Asian countries.

    Despite initial declarations that denied military aims for its nuclear program, the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War, which ended in victory for India, prompted Pakistani Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, to declare: “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own.”[2]

    The refusal by India to sign the 1968 Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), alongside inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), would be reason for alarm for the international community, and first and foremost, for Pakistan. Fears were confirmed on May 18, 1974, when India exploded its first nuclear device – ironically called ‘Smiling Buddha’ (with official name ‘Pokhran I’)  – at its Pokhran test site, located in the Jaisalmer District of the Indian state of Rajasthan, very close to the Pakistani border. In 1996, India refused to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and two years later proceeded with testing five nuclear devices, emerging officially as a nuclear weapons state.

    The perception of threat India represented had been the main factor that motivated Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program. Being part of the IAEA safeguards agreement since the first instances of the development of its nuclear program, and being in a net position of inferiority compared to India, Pakistan was induced to seek nuclear technology by entering a clandestine trade network originating in Western Europe. Following pressure by the United States to abandon its nuclear program, Islamabad opened its ties with Libya, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and North Korea, motivated by anti-imperialistic sentiments. In July 1977, the military, led by Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq, ousted Bhutto, who had become Prime Minister, through a coup, and had him hung in April 1979. Many Pakistanis started fearing U.S. interference and Pakistan’s nuclear program became a symbol of national sovereignty and prestige.[3]

    In 1997 Pakistan and India had a brief period of amicable relationship. This apparent harmony was disrupted by victory of the Bharativa Janata Party in India, whose stance was categorically against any compromise with Pakistan and in favor of an overt nuclear policy. After the rupture of their relationship Pakistan proceeded to its first testing of an atomic device on May 28 and 30, 1998, shortly after India conducted its second and third nuclear test, on May 11 and 13.

    The 1998 testing of nuclear devices by India and Pakistan, and the regime of sanctions that was imposed by the United States not only increased the tension between them, but threw the whole world into a state of emergency, even though the economic pressure on Pakistan prevented the country from achieving full-scale nuclear weaponization and dramatically affected its civil society.

    Though India’s conventional military forces are far bigger that Pakistan’s, the two countries possess similar nuclear arsenals. India currently has between 130 and 140 warheads, while Pakistan possesses between 140 and 150 nuclear warheads. India is considered more powerful than Pakistan because it possesses a nuclear triad, namely the ability to launch nuclear strikes by air, land and sea, while Pakistan’s sea-launched cruise missile system is still incomplete. However, unlike Pakistan, India has a strict no-first use policy, although high-level officials have recently threatened pre-emptive strikes to eliminate Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. Uncertainty, therefore, dominates the region, with both countries heavily relying on conventional attacks against each other and the threat of use of nuclear weapons. Their possession does nothing but increase the militarization of Indo-Pakistani relationship, suggesting that the only safe choice is their dismantling.

    Footnotes

    [1] Newman, Dorothy (1965) (1st ed.) Nehru. The First 60 Years, Vol. 2, New York: John Day Company, p. 264.

    [2] “Eating Grass,” The Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists, Editor’s note, Vol. 49, no. 5, June 1993, p. 2.

    [3] Ahmed, Samina, “Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program: turning points and nuclear choices”, International Security, Vol. 23, no. 4 (Spring 1999), p. 183.

  • India and Pakistan – From British Colonial Rule To Nuclear Weapons

    India and Pakistan – From British Colonial Rule To Nuclear Weapons

    Click here for a short version of this article.

    Colonialism

    Colonialism does lasting damage. In order to understand the current international (dis)order, it is necessary to make the effort to understand the past, and the animosity that stemmed from it through the course of centuries. India and Pakistan are two countries that possess nuclear weapons and, like Israel, have refused to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). They are also countries deeply entrenched in animosity towards each other. The enmity that characterizes their relations can be explained by looking at the history of European expansionism.

    On December 31, 1600, Queen Elizabeth I established the East India Company (“the Company”) in India. It comprised London merchants who were interested in the trading of cotton, silk, tea and other spices with the islands that form present-day Indonesia. After conflicts erupted with the Dutch and Portuguese merchants, the East India Company restricted its trading deals to the Mogul rulers of the Indian sub-continent. Therefore, in order to defend its trade, the Company hired its own military and soon became a military and diplomatic enterprise, in addition to a commercial one.

    One century after its establishment, with the collapse of the Mogul Empire in India, the East India Company had to defend itself against Persian, Afghan and, most importantly, French traders who wanted to enter India. In 1757, the British took over India by defeating the Indian army that was backed by the French, and started to acquire more Indian territory, setting the foundation for it to become an English colony.

    In the mid-nineteenth century, deep tensions occurred between the Company and the Indian population. Not only was the Company relentlessly advancing in the acquisition of Indian territory, it also lifted restraints on Christian missionary work in the subcontinent, thus opening the way to aggressive Christian campaigns that attempted to convert Hindu and Muslim locals. The Company was ended by the 1858 Government of India Act, following the suspicion that it had introduced a new type of cartridge for rifles wrapped in paper coated with grease, derived from cows and pigs, whose killing is forbidden in Hindu and Muslim culture. Outrage over the blasphemy led to the Sepoy Mutiny, a bloody uprising by the Indian population, after which the Company was ended and the British Crown declared it would govern India establishing the so-called Raj, namely the British Empire in India. Years later, in 1876, Queen Victoria declared herself “Empress of India,” and Britain retained control of India until it gained independence in 1947.

    The colonial domination of India extended to three-fifths of its territory, with the remaining independently governed by 560 principalities that entered into mutual cooperation with the Raj, and lent economic and military support to Britain during the two world wars. However, at least within Raj, the British put in place a “divide et impera” rule, separating Muslims and Hindus and pitting them against each other. During WWI and WWII, the Indian population suffered tens of thousands of losses and since the First World War, in particular, voices requesting independence from the British Crown became louder under the lead of Indian lawyer and prophet of nonviolence, Mahatma Gandhi.

    Since 1920, the Indian National Congress (INC) became the principal leader of the Indian independence movement. Even more so in 1924, under the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi who was revered for leading non-violent boycotts of British policies and products. In 1922 Gandhi was arrested on charges of sedition against the British Crown. He was released from prison in 1928, and several years after, Britain appointed the Simon Commission, a constitutional reform commission with the mandate to introduce constitutional reforms. The Commission was composed of members of the British Parliament, but no Indian was included. The outcome was the Government of India Act 1935, through which the Commission granted independence to Indian rule only at the provincial level, while denying it at the national level. Moreover, it recommended that separate communal electorates between Muslims and Hindus be retained, but only until tensions between them had died down, and granted the right to vote to only 10% of the Indian male population. The Indian National Congress boycotted the Commission, and Gandhi demanded complete dominion status for India from the British government within a year, which was refused.

    During WWII, Britain begged India for help in recruiting Indian soldiers, offering promises of future independence in return. The Indian National Congress (INC), and Gandhi himself, didn’t trust Britain, and demanded immediate independence, which was refused again. On the occasion of the mass demonstrations that sparked, many proponents of the INC, including Gandhi and his wife, were arrested. By this time, the anti-colonial movement was very strong. However, by the end of the war, India counted almost 90,000 deaths. Moreover, through the years, the tensions between Muslims and Hindus grew deeper and, at the end of WWII, Britain found itself not able to continue. This would lead to the end of the British Raj and to the partition of India.

    The partition of India

    In August 1946, a violent clash between Hindus and Muslims occurred in Calcutta, and then spread across the rest of the country. Britain, having suffered large economic losses during the world wars, announced that it would leave India by June 1948. In fact, a year after the eruption of clashes in June 1947, the Parliament of the United Kingdom issued the Indian Independence Act through which India was partitioned into two dominions: India and Pakistan, comprising West (now Pakistan) and East (now Bangladesh). It took effect in August 1947, setting off a period of religious turmoil in both India and Pakistan that would result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, including Gandhi, who was assassinated by a Hindu fanatic in January 1948 during a prayer vigil in an area of Muslim-Hindu violence. The partitioning of India caused one of the worst exodus in human history:[1] 10 to 12 million refugees flooded across the border in each direction, and between 250,000 and 500,000 people were killed in sectarian violence. Moreover, the violent nature of the partition between India and Pakistan created an atmosphere of hatred between the two countries that still exists.

    The partition of India, and the ethno-religious clashes that stemmed from it, brought Pakistan and India to a dispute over Kashmir, a region located at the northwest of the Indian subcontinent, which had strategic importance during British colonial domination. In fact, Kashmir functioned as a buffer zone for Great Britain, protecting the Crown against the Soviet and Chinese empires. During the process that led to Indian independence, Kashmir was given the option to decide whether to belong to Pakistan, or to India, or to opt for independence. The revolution of the Muslim population along the western border of Kashmir motivated the maharaja Hari Singh to sign the Accession to India in 1947, sparking a war between Pakistan and India. The war lasted until January 1949, and was terminated only by a ceasefire declaration made possible by the intercession of the United Nations. Shortly after the ceasefire, in January 1949 the Kashmiri area was divided by a ceasefire line – which would be renamed ‘Line of Control’ in 1972 under the terms of the Simla Agreement – defining the areas controlled by India and by Pakistan. The areas of Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan in the northwest of Kashmir are administered by Pakistan; while the southern and southeastern areas – Jammu and Kashmir – are administered by India.[2] The Line of Control, which is still in place today, left Pakistan with a portion of the Kashmiri territory that is thinly populated, difficult to access and economically underdeveloped. Moreover, the biggest portion of its Muslim population lives in the part of the country that is administered by India. Since the declaration of the ceasefire in 1949, tension remained high, causing India and Pakistan to enter into a six-month war against each other again in April 1965. Another war flared up in 1971, which resulted in the creation of Bangladesh (in what was then East Pakistan, the eastern provincial wing of Pakistan). Through time, the series of conflicts that affected this region, in addition to the development of movements that attempted to merge Kashmir with Pakistan, rendered Kashmir a highly militarized area. Since the end of 1980s India has maintained a strong military presence alongside the Line of Control to contain Pakistani forces and its subversive movements. Moreover, India’s stronghold was aimed to administering the region. In the 1990s, Pakistan paramilitary movements became an insurgency and began to infiltrate into Indian territory, despite India’s suppressive military campaign. Only in 2004 were India and Pakistan able to reach a new ceasefire. Some form of cooperation was achieved in October 2005 when an earthquake shook the region: it shook both India and Pakistan, making millions of people homeless. Despite their animosities, the two governments facilitated transportation and rescue operations across the Line of Control. In 2008, some trade operations resumed, but conflicts and infiltrations along the border continued unabated.

    Since 1989, more than 70,000 people have been killed in the uprisings along the Line of Control. One of the most violent episodes took place on February 14, 2019, when a car with explosives rammed a convoy of vehicles carrying Indian Central Reserve Police Force personnel travelling from Jammu to Srinagar. The blast caused forty deaths and injured many others. The episode, whose responsibility was claimed by a Pakistani-based Islamist militant group, Jaish-e-Mohammed, received the condemnation of Pakistan. However, India blamed the Pakistani government for the human loss suffered, thus igniting more animosity between them.

    India’s nuclear program

    The partition of British India didn’t cause only sectarian and religious conflicts. Shortly after the British left, a group of Indian scientists, led by physicist Homi Bhabha, who was referred to as ‘the Indian Oppenheimer,’ convinced Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to invest resources in a nuclear program. With the 1948 Atomic Energy Act, India created the Indian Atomic Energy Commission with the intent of developing nuclear energy. The development of nuclear weapons was not India’s prime concern at this time. Prime Minister Nehru displayed profound ambivalence regarding the aim of the nuclear program – whether it should be only for civilian purposes or also for military purposes. He was shocked by the explosion of the A-Bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and referred to the atomic bomb as “the symbol of evil.” He also stated: “As long as the world is constituted as it is, every country will have to devise and use the latest scientific devices for its protection. I have no doubt India will develop her scientific researches and I hope Indian scientists will use the atomic force for constructive purposes. But if India is threatened she will inevitably try to defend herself by all means at her disposal. I hope India in common with other countries will prevent the use of atomic bombs.”[3]

    Prime Minister Nehru largely supported Bhabha’s vision on the development of India’s nuclear program. As George Perkovich comments: “Atomic science and technology assumed a special place in the overall plans for the technological development and modernization of India. The need to increase availability of electrical power was a paramount objective, and Nehru saw atomic energy as the most dramatic means of achieving it. Thus, in 1948, the Indian government took direct responsibility for the atomic energy sector, one of three industrial sectors over which public monopoly was established.”[4]

    It was Bhabha who turned the focus of nuclear energy from civilian to military use, merging western militaristic attitudes in the defence policy’s sphere, and India’s nationalistic aspiration to grow as a world power. He earned his Ph.D. in Physics at the University of Cambridge, and, while in Europe, had the opportunity to visit some of the greatest European institutes and laboratories where he met with famous physicists, some of whom played an important role for the development of nuclear weapons in the Manhattan Project in the U.S. In his view, which was largely supported by the India government, both ideologically and financially, mastery over nuclear technology would accelerate India’s development after decades of British colonialism.

    India’s nuclear program was dual-purposed and the nuclear program was modeled on Britain’s Atomic Energy Act. However, unlike those of Britain and the U.S., India’s program was supported by legislation that allowed more secrecy. Any attempt by the international community to establish a network of control over nuclear material was rejected. After refusing to be part of the Baruch Plan – a proposal written in 1946 by the United States for the United Nations Atomic Energy Commission to own and operate all nuclear material and facilities worldwide – India started its own development of atomic energy production in 1954. In the same year the Indian government built the equivalent of the Los Alamos research facility – the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) – in Trombay. This was facilitated by a nuclear cooperation agreement that had been established with France. In addition to this, India benefitted by a generous provision from the Canadian government of a nuclear reactor based on the National Research Experimental Reactor (NRX) at Chalk River; and some heavy water from the United States under the auspices of the Atoms for Peace program. Finally, India also secured a trade agreement on nuclear material with Canada and the U.S., which extended to Great Britain as well.

    Two major factors prompted India to develop a nuclear weapon. Neither India nor Pakistan were of any interest to the United States. Moreover, Prime Minister Nehru had always refused to let the U.S. dictate any rule of conduct to India. However, in the early 1950s, Pakistan started asking for military and economic assistance from the U.S. to counteract India’s predominance. Pakistan highlighted that its own strategic position, near the Persian Gulf to the south and near the Soviet Union and China to the north, could benefit the U.S. in its fight against communism. Desperate to obtain American military aid, Pakistan’s army chief, General Mohammad Ayub Khan, paid a visit to Washington in the fall of 1953 and found Washington sympathetic to his request. This prompted an outcry in India, and Nehru emphasized that U.S. aid to Pakistan would export the Cold War to the Asian continent, changing the balance of power in the region, and exacerbating threats between India and Pakistan. One year later, in 1954, U.S. President Eisenhower reassured India that he would do everything possible to prevent Pakistan from using the aid against India, and offered military aid to India itself, which was refused. Nehru’s refusal would be re-evaluated in 1962, when India and China entered into a war against each other over a disagreement regarding the Himalayan border. Two years later, on October 16, 1964, China tested its first atomic weapon, prompting Homi Bhabha to ask the Indian Government to approve an atomic weapons program. The physicist traveled to Washington the following year with the intent to establish a program of nuclear cooperation with the U.S., which was refused.

    The year 1966 marked a turning point for India’s nuclear ambitions. Indira Gandhi became Prime Minister of India, and strongly advocated for the military use of nuclear technology. In the same year, Homi Bhabha passed away and his successor, Raja Ramanna, was tasked by Indira Gandhi to develop India’s military nuclear program further to protect India’s sovereignty from interference. In its pursuit of the atomic weapon, India refused to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty for two main reasons. First, because it found the NPT discriminatory inasmuch as the Treaty established the U.S., the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom as recognized nuclear weapons states, while urging the non-nuclear signatories not to develop a nuclear weapons program. Second, because the Treaty did not distinguish between military and peaceful nuclear explosions.

    In 1971, when India signed the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union, the Cold War had a direct impact on the Indian subcontinent. When war broke out with Pakistan over the separatist movement that would lead to the creation of Bangladesh, India was backed by the Soviet Union, while Pakistan received the support of China and the U.S. The victory of India at the end of the war complicated its relationship not only with Pakistan, but also with West. It was in this climate that India secretly proceeded toward its first nuclear test. On May 18, 1974, the Indian government exploded a 3,000-pound device with a force equivalent to 8 kilotons at its Pokhran test site, located in the Jaisalmer District of the Indian state of Rajasthan, very close to the border with Pakistan. It was given the infamous name of ‘Smiling Buddha’ (though it’s official one is Pokhran I), and was ironically exploded on the day in India that celebrates the birth of Gautama Buddha. Suddenly, India’s nuclear intentions became clear.

    The test elicited criticism from other countries of the international community, particularly from those Western countries that already possessed nuclear weapons. The United States condemned the Indian nuclear program as a violation of the Atoms for Peace program. India built its nuclear arsenal and a military system capable of military deployment in over twenty years, even though the country encountered difficulties in obtaining nuclear materials because of the hostility that reigned within the international community after its first test. The Bhabha Atomic Research Centre built India’s current biggest nuclear plant, namely the Dhuva reactor based in Trombay, capable of producing most of the plutonium for its nuclear weapons program. It was established in 1977 but didn’t reach its full power until ten years later. During this time, India managed to build the short-range Prithvi missile and the long-range Agni missile, equipping both of them with nuclear warheads.

    In 1996, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) that had the aim of banning all nuclear explosions, both civilian and military, including underground tests. India, like the United States, did not ratify this Treaty. Two years later, Operation Shakti, also known as Pokhran II, took place. On this occasion, India tested five nuclear devices, but not all of them detonated. This second test certified India as a nuclear weapon state, and attracted a large amount of condemnation by the international community. The United States, in particular, condemned India with sanctions, which consisted of the cutting off all assistance to India except for humanitarian aid; the banning of export of certain defense material and technologies; the ending of American credit and credit guarantees to India; and opposition to lending by international financial institutions to India. With the establishment of its nuclear program, India established its National Security Advisory Board, which opted for a no-first use policy for Indian nuclear weapons. In 2005, the Indian government signed the India-United States Civil Nuclear Agreement, which allows India to access civilian nuclear technology and fuel from other countries. The signing of this treaty established placing India’s nuclear program under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguard agreement, while the U.S. agreed to engage in civil nuclear cooperation with India.  It was operationalized in 2008, the same year when India established a similar agreement with France. Since then, the relationship between India and the most powerful possessors of nuclear weapons became warmer, and a similar agreement to the one with the U.S. and France was signed with other countries including Australia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, with prospects of establishing the same deal with Canada and the United Kingdom. It is estimated that India has a stockpile of 130 to 140 nuclear weapons.

    Pakistan’s nuclear program

    Pakistan’s nuclear ambition has been evolving around its perception of India as a threat, and by its desire to acquire equal standing. The impact of regional and extra-regional alliances was another determining factor that contributed to Pakistan’s nuclear policy. In the pursuit of its nuclear program, prior to the testing of its first nuclear device, the factors that contributed to Pakistan’s achievement were its alliance with the United States, its military link with China, and consequences of the Cold War in South Asia. The U.S. was for Pakistan a source of military and economic assistance, which allowed Pakistan’s military establishment to expand and consolidate within the country. Its interest in nuclear energy was, in fact, prompted in large part by the United States’ Atoms for Peace program, which sought to spread nuclear energy technology across the globe. In 1956 Pakistan established the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) to lead the new program. PAEC chairman, Ishrat Usmani, devoted government resources to training the next generation of Pakistani scientists by sending students abroad for training purposes. The military took power in 1958, and Army Chief General Mohammad Ayub Khan took direct rule of the country, politically and militarily. The defense and security policies he formulated were, on one side, a tool to fulfill his own interests internally, and, on the other, a reflection of the perception of the threat India represented externally. Pakistan relied predominantly on conventional arms for defense, which were largely obtained from the U.S., and officially proclaimed interest in nuclear power only for its peaceful use. In 1965, the United States gave Pakistan its first nuclear reactor—the five megawatt Pakistan Atomic Research Reactor (PARR-1), based in Nilore, Islamabad. In the same year Ishrat Usmani, together with Abdus Salam, founded the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (PINSTECH). In 1972 operation of the first unit of its research reactor based in Karachi – the Karachi Nuclear Power Complex (KANNUP-1) began under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. Although Pakistan claimed its interest in the nuclear program was only to pursue the peaceful applications of atomic energy, there were signs that its leadership had other intentions. When the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War ended in victory for India, then Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, declared: “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own.”[5]

    The continuous deterioration of the relationship with India, and the serious conflict that took place in Kashmir, induced General Ayub and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to direct the country toward the adoption of a harsher anti-India position. As a foreign minister in charge of atomic energy, Bhutto urged General Ayub to build a nuclear weapon, which he refused, in the conviction that, if needed, Pakistan could buy directly from a western ally.[6] In the same year, however, the United Stated sanctioned both Pakistan and India because of their war over Kashmir, but India ended up having more conventional weapons than Pakistan. Moreover, as a consequence of the Cold War, Pakistan had less strategic significance for the U.S. than before. China replaced the U.S. in becoming the major source of conventional weapons for Pakistan, but these weapons were believed to be less adequate than those supplied by the U.S. Prime Minister Bhutto, who became very suspicious that India was developing a nuclear program aimed at building a bomb, renewed pressure on his government: he wanted Pakistan to have a nuclear bomb to counter-balance the disparity of power with the Indian subcontinent. Moreover, when India refused to sign the NPT, Pakistan followed suit. At this point, it became evident that Pakistan was working on developing its own nuclear weapons program.

    In 1971, in the aftermath of the war between India and Pakistan that gave rise to Bangladesh, General Ayub was removed from his position and replaced by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who became president and martial law chief, and then Prime Minister. Samina Ahmend describes this pivotal moment in Pakistani history, stating: “Domestically, Bhutto faced the dual challenges of creating a new identity for a traumatized nation and salvaging the prestige of a defeated yet politically powerful military. Using nationalistic, anti-imperialistic, and anti-Indian rhetoric to build popular support, Bhutto embarked on a program expanding the size of the armed forces. And in March 1972, with the support of the military and the civil bureaucracy, he adopted a nuclear weapons program.”[7]  In order to purchase a nuclear reprocessing plant for plutonium enrichment he initiated negotiations with France, and India’s testing of its first nuclear device in 1974 reinforced his decision.

    The leader of Pakistan’s nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, was a metallurgical engineer, and was given the task to enrich uranium by Prime Minister Bhutto following India’s first nuclear test. It is allegedly believed that he stole the necessary technology and blueprints at the Amelo plant in the Netherlands and that Pakistan entered a clandestine trade with Western Europe to acquire the technology and hardware to build ultra-high-speed centrifuges.[8] Pakistan’s plans and negotiations with France worried the U.S., which in 1976 passed through Congress the Symington amendment to the International Security Assistance and Arms Export Control Act. With this Act, the U.S. denied any military and economic assistance to countries that were importing unsafeguarded technology for enrichment or reprocessing, and urged Pakistan and France to cancel their deal.[9]

    In response to this pressure, Pakistan notified the international community that the country was pursuing a program for a peaceful use of nuclear energy, and invested some efforts to advocate for a nuclear weapons-free zone in South Asia as an alternative measure to counteract India’s predominance in the region. In the aftermath of a visit to Pakistan by U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in August 1977, aimed at convincing Prime Minister Bhutto to renounce to his nuclear program, France decided to honor the U.S.’s request.[10] In response, Bhutto established a closer relationship with Libya that was based on strong anti-imperialistic sentiments. When the military, led by Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq, ousted Bhutto in July 1977 through a coup, and had him hung in April 1979, many Pakistanis started fearing U.S. interference and Pakistan’s nuclear program became a symbol of national sovereignty and prestige.[11] Motivated by anti-imperialistic feelings, Pakistan would illicitly transfer nuclear technology and expertise to country such as Iran, Iraq, Libya, and North Korea during the following years.[12] Although the deal with France ended, Western Europe remained a reliable source of nuclear material and technology. It was predominantly a clandestine network, but some loopholes in the legislation of these countries allowed Pakistan to openly obtain material from Germany and the Netherlands. On the Asian front, China was the major supplier for Pakistan of most of its weapons-grade uranium, and technical information on the enrichment process. Moreover, it was thanks to China that Pakistan could build the Kahuta ultracentrifuge uranium enrichment plant, which became operational in the mid-1980s.[13]

    To reduce pressure from the international community, and to soothe the very tense relationship with the U.S., Pakistan agreed to allow further control by the IAEA. In 1980, the Cold War’s effects in South Asia turned in Pakistan’s favor. In fact, following the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, the U.S. revalued Pakistan’s role in the region and eased its adversity toward Pakistan’s nuclear program up to the point that all the sanctions imposed were lifted by the Reagan administration, and military and economic assistance was offered again. In this way, Pakistan’s position was strengthened against regional opponents such as India, and it pursued further its nuclear weapons program with the help of China. Although its nuclear program had been formally placed under IAEA’s control, Abdul Qadeer Khan would later reveal that Pakistan, by this time, had a clandestine uranium enrichment facility.[14] In 1985 U.S concerns for Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation were renewed, and it re-imposed economic and military sanctions on Pakistan for its supposed willingness to build an atomic bomb. The U.S. then adopted a very ambiguous stance toward Pakistan: Reagan admonished Pakistan not to cross the 5-percent uranium enrichment mark, but when it became clear that Pakistan had crossed it, the U.S. administration denied that Pakistan was pursuing a nuclear weapons program and continued to supply military and economic assistance.

    In August 1988, Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq was assassinated and succeeded by Army Chief General Mirza Aslam Beg. Pakistan attempted to reestablish a democratic system, but the military retained control over defense and security policies and, by the end of the year, Pakistan became de facto a nuclear state. Following India’s development of short-range and intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles, Pakistan invested in developing its own ballistic missile program. In 1989, Pakistan succeeded in testing two short-range nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, with a range of 70 and 200 kilometers, respectively.[15] Once again, the fall of the Soviet Union and decreased value of importance of Pakistan as a U.S. ally increased the pressure over Pakistan’s nuclear program. In reaction to U.S. and civil society pressure, Pakistan’s military establishment accelerated the development of its nuclear program and interrupted the consultations with the political leadership of the country. Moreover, in 1990, Chief General Beg openly threatened the use of an atomic weapon in case India crossed the Line of Control, causing the U.S. to intervene to mediate and India to back off. This episode further reinforced the belief “in the value of nuclear weapons both as a deterrent and as a tool of diplomatic bargaining,”[16] but prompted the U.S. to impose sanctions that little affected Pakistan. The sanctions didn’t prevent Pakistan from asking for loans and grants from international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. Moreover, Pakistan could still engage in dealing with other economically advanced countries for the purchasing of nuclear technology and material.

    Pakistan’s nuclear weapons policy became even more India-centric in the first half of the 1990s in its attempt to ease international pressure over its program. Pakistan openly declared support of nonproliferation efforts, but under the condition that India would cease being a nuclear threat. It also expressed approval for the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty under the condition that India also signed it. Finally, Pakistan agreed to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty only on the condition that its Indian neighbor approved it. This conduct inflamed the Indo-Pakistani relationship, but prompted the renewal of the negotiating efforts with both Pakistan and India by the Clinton administration with the aim of inducing them to freeze their nuclear weapons programs. For a brief period in 1997, the relationship with India morphed into open dialogue – including on issues over Kashmir – and seemed to be heading out of perennial confrontation. This possibility was undermined by the victory of the Bharativa Janata Party in India, whose stance was categorically against any compromise on the Kashmiri issue and in favor of an overt nuclear policy. On its side, Pakistan insisted on the centrality of Kashmir to any resolution with India, a position that further entrenched the two countries in a diplomatic stalemate. It was in this climate that, on May 11 and 13, 1998, India conducted its second and third nuclear test, which was followed by Pakistan’s test on May 28 and 30, despite the promise by the U.S. that Pakistan, together with India, would receive sanctions if it tested a nuclear device. However, for Pakistan the prospect sanctions didn’t prevent it from testing its first nuclear device. The sanctions that were imposed by Japan and the European Union, in addition to the U.S. destabilized Pakistan’s fragile economy. They excluded the possibility of obtaining credits and loans from international financial institutions, and prevented capital outflow, eroding Pakistan’s market self-sustainability and its ability to obtain commercial loans from the International Islamic Bank, which was subject to IMF’s approval.

    State of emergency

    The 1998 testing of nuclear devices by India and Pakistan not only dramatically increased the tension between them, but threw the whole world into a state of emergency, even though the economic pressure on Pakistan prevented the country from achieving full-scale nuclear weaponization and deployment that not even China’s assistance could overcome. China itself was concerned over the possibility that a nuclear arms race could happen between two of its closest neighbors, and openly condemned the two countries. Together with the rest of the P5, China urged Pakistan and India to join the NPT and the CTBT as nuclear-free powers.

    The strict regime of sanctions morphed through time and Pakistan obtained the lifting of some stringent ones, such as the ability to obtain multilateral lending. However, the sanctioning system very harshly affected civil society without really influencing policymakers and politicians, and without warming the Indo-Pakistani relationship. Though India’s conventional military forces are far bigger that Pakistan’s, the two countries possess similar nuclear arsenals. Estimates believe that India currently has between 130 and 140 warheads, while Pakistan possess between 140 and 150 nuclear warheads. The factor that makes India more powerful than Pakistan is that it possesses a nuclear triad, namely the ability to launch nuclear strikes by air, land and sea, while Pakistan’s sea-launched cruise missiles system is still incomplete. Moreover, unlike Pakistan, India has a strict no-first use policy, although high-level officials have recently threatened pre-emptive strikes to eliminate Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. This situation is causing the region to dwell in uncertainty, and both countries to rely heavily on conventional attacks against each other, confirming that the possession of nuclear weapons does nothing but increase the militarization of their relationship.

    Footnotes

    [1] Dalrymple, William, “The great divide. The violent legacy of Indian partition,” The New Yorker, June 22, 2015 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/06/29/the-great-divide-books-dalrymple).

    [2] China, also, occupies a portion of Kashmir, namely Aksai Chin and Trans-Karakoram Tract.

    [3] Newman, Dorothy (1965) (1st ed.) Nehru. The First 60 Years, Vol. 2, New York: John Day Company, p. 264.

    [4] Perkovich, George (1999) India’s Nuclear Bomb. The Impact On Global Proliferation, Berkley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, p. 15.

    [5] “Eating Grass,” The Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists, Editor’s note, Vol. 49, no. 5, June 1993, p. 2.

    [6] Ahmed, Samina, “Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program: turning points and nuclear choices”, International Security, Vol. 23, no. 4 (Spring 1999), pp. 178-204.

    [7] Ibidem., p.183.

    [8] Ibidem.

    [9] Ibidem., pg.184.

    [10] Ibidem.

    [11] Ibidem., p.185.

    [12] International Institute for Strategic Studies (2007) Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks, London: IISS. See also https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/pakistan/nuclear/ (Accessed on September 12, 2019)

    [13] Ahmed, Samina, “Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program: turning points and nuclear choices”, International Security, Vol. 23, no. 4 (Spring 1999), p. 186.

    [14] “Interview with Abdul Qadeer Khan,” The News (Islamabad), 30 May 1998, (Accessed on September 12, 2019 http://nuclearweaponarchive.org).

    [15] Spector, Leonard (2018) Nuclear Ambitions. The Spread Of Nuclear Weapons 1989-1990, London and New York: Routledge, p. 107.

    [16] Ahmed, Samina, “Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program: turning points and nuclear choices”, International Security, Vol. 23, no. 4 (Spring 1999), p. 190.

  • This Spring in Nuclear Threat History – 2019

    March 23, 1983– President Ronald Reagan, influenced by Manhattan Project scientist Edward Teller and other hawkish Cold Warriors and speaking before a national television audience, announced his dream of making Soviet nuclear weapons “impotent and obsolete” by proposing the research, development, and deployment of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), later nicknamed “Star Wars” by news media representatives.  Over $100 billion was spent in the next two decades researching exotic space-based X-ray lasers and other orbital SDI sensors and weapons.  Cost estimates for the program spiraled as high as several trillion dollars as it became clear that a strategic defensive buildup would fuel even more of an offensive nuclear arms race.  This led to the program being downsized in the 1990s to tackle shorter-range missile threats from nations such as Iran and North Korea.  Under President Clinton, the program was renamed National Missile Defense (NMD) in 1996 and focused on using Ground-Based Interceptors to intercept threat missiles in mid-trajectory.  Then, President George W. Bush announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty despite widespread criticism that this move would increase nuclear instability and ratchet up the risk of nuclear war by lifting restrictions on defensive weapons.  In late 2002, the Bush Administration announced the newly named Missile Defense Agency (MDA) would, despite inadequate R&D and a large number of test failures, begin building a Ground-Based Missile Defense (GMD) system.  Today in 2019, with 44 ground-based interceptors deployed in Alaska and California, the program’s price tag is at least $40 billion and possibly as high as $67 billion.  Its test record is poor, oversight of the program has been wholly inadequate, and according to a plethora of defense experts, inside and outside the government, it has no demonstrated ability to stop an incoming missile under real-world conditions.  In recent months, history has unfortunately repeated itself as President Trump has put another dagger into long-held international legal precedent, particularly the 1967 Outer Space Treaty which prohibits militarizing outer space, by advocating the creation of a sixth branch of the U.S. military – a Space Force and the development of space-based missile defenses or “Star Wars – The Sequel” if you will.  Comments:  Once again the 45th President has ignored or purposefully rejected broad-based multilateral scientific and military consensus by releasing a January 2019 “Missile Defense Review” that increases investments in space-based sensors and lasers while also proposing a third site for ground-based interceptors on the East Coast.  This will inevitably fuel the growth of larger and larger numbers of strategic offensive nuclear weapons making the U.S. and the world a tremendously more unstable place where the risks of accidental or unintentional nuclear war will increase dramatically.  Also, the deployment and testing of military weapons including possibly nuclear devices in orbit will fuel an exponential increase in orbital space debris and possibly disrupt e-commerce and communication through the electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) impacts of high altitude nuclear tests.  Even if we somehow avoid most or all of these negative impacts including nuclear war, our nation and others will squander precious resources that could have otherwise have been used to address real problems such as global warming, crumbling infrastructure, the global migrant crisis, international terrorism, hunger, disease, and poverty.  (Sources:  Laura Grego, George N. Lewis, and David Wright.  “Shielded From Oversight:  The Disastrous U.S. Approach to Strategic Missile Defense.”  Union of Concerned Scientists. July 2016. pp. 1, 6, Sarah Kaplan and Dan Lamothe. “Trump Says He’s Directing Pentagon to Create A New Space Force.”  Washington Post. June 18, 2018, Paul Sonne. “Pentagon Seeks to Expand Scope and Sophistication of U.S. Missile Defenses.” Washington Post. Jan. 16, 2019, Deb Riechman and Lolita C. Baldor.  “Trump Says U.S. Will Develop Space-Based Missile Defense.”  AP News. Jan. 17, 2019, and “Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space.”  United Nations. Office of Outer Space Affairs, https://www.unoosa.org accessed Jan. 29, 2019.)

    April 4, 1949 – Seventy years ago, after a communist coup in Czechoslovakia and the Berlin Blockade-Airlift, twelve nations including Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the U.K., and U.S. signed the North Atlantic Treaty creating a military alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, against the Soviet Union and its communist bloc Eastern European allies.  The U.S.S.R. responded on May 14, 1955 with the creation of the eight-nation Soviet-led Warsaw Pact mutual defense agreement.  Two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Velvet Revolutions that overthrew pro-Soviet communist governments in Eastern Europe, and eight months before the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the Warsaw Pact alliance broke up on April 1, 1991.  Despite some assurances to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev made by Western and particularly American leaders that NATO would not expand and thereby threaten Russian security, in actuality, NATO did indeed expand from its Cold War era membership of 16 nations to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in July of 1997.   After adding more Baltic and Eastern European countries in 2004 and 2009, NATO has expanded again to its current size of 28-member nations and there is some support for eventually including Ukraine and Georgia as members of the Alliance.  Another concern is a recent Trump Administration push to increase spending on U.S. Air Force military construction and pre-positioning of strike aircraft close to Russian borders in Estonia, Slovakia, Norway and several other NATO countries.   Comments: More and more arms control experts and a concerned global citizenry are urging the U.S. to bring home tactical nuclear weapons from Europe, allowing NATO to move to a safer, more secure non-nuclear means of deterring Russian military adventures as occurred during the Crimea-Ukraine Crisis.  Russian president Putin has responded by deploying even more nuclear-capable forces near his Western borders with both sides increasing the risks of miscalculation which might trigger a nuclear Armageddon.  Another reason to consider scaling down if not eliminating NATO is that according to many experts like antiwar blogger and author David Swanson, “NATO is used within the U.S. and by other NATO members as a cover to wage war under the pretense that (such actions) are somehow more legal or acceptable…Placing a primarily U.S. war under the banner of NATO also helps to prevent Congressional oversight of that war (including possible use of the 1973 War Powers Resolution).”  He then cites some specific examples, “…NATO has waged aggressive wars far from the North Atlantic bombing Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Libya.  NATO has added a partnership with Colombia abandoning all pretense of its purpose being (solely) in the North Atlantic.” (Sources: Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information. 2002, pp. 117, 125, 132-33, Steve Andreasen and Isabelle Williams. “Bring Home U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons from Europe.” Ten Big Nuclear Ideas for the Next President, edited by Tom Z. Collina and Geoff Wilson. Ploughshares Fund. November 2016, Joe Gould. “Poking the Bear: U.S. Air Force Builds in Russia’s Backyard.” Defense News. June 25, 2018 and David Swanson. “Top 10 Reasons Not to Love NATO.”  Counterpunch.org. Jan. 18, 2019.)

    April 14, 1948 – The United States conducted its fourth of an eventual Cold War total of over a thousand nuclear explosive tests at a new location – Enewetak Atoll – detonating a 37 kiloton bomb atop a 200-foot high tower.  It was the first of some forty such tests done in this region of the Central Pacific Ocean which includes Runit and other Marshall Island locations (another 23 atomic tests were staged at nearby Bikini Atoll).  At the time, the native population of these islands were forcibly removed from the test sites.  However some of them were still exposed to nuclear fallout they referred to as “snow.”  A $2.3 billion compensation fund established by the U.S. government has had a minimal impact on the islanders for only a small portion, four million dollars, has actually been distributed to local test victims.  In the late 1970s, U.S. military personnel such as Ken Kasik and Jim Androl worked on cleaning up the radioactive remnants of the nuclear blasts, by bulldozing nuclear waste, including approximately 400 “lumps” of the deadliest substance on Earth, plutonium, onto Runit’s coral atoll.  They then encased the deadly pile beneath a concrete circle which is referred to by locals as “The Dome.”  The soldiers shifted radioactive debris for many months without the benefit of radiation-protective clothing which has resulted in a large number of the men dying from cancers and related diseases.  Unfortunately, the U.S. government ruled that since they were not actually involved directly in witnessing nuclear tests, that they weren’t recognized as “atomic veterans.”   The locals are justifiably upset that it now appears that the Dome is cracking and leaking and that a powerful typhoon might break the entire waste dump apart and spill plutonium and other highly radioactive contaminants into their ecosystem.  The Marshall Islanders led by their Foreign Minister, the late Tony deBrum (1945-2017), filed a lawsuit against all nine nuclear weapons states in April of 2014 at the International Court of Justice and against the United States government in U.S. federal court.  But the former lawsuit was dismissed by the International Court of Justice on October 5, 2016 and the latter action was similarly dismissed by the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court Appeals on July 31, 2017.  The Marshallese legitimately feel abandoned, ignored, and disrespected, “We’re disposable. Our lives don’t matter.  War matters.  Nuclear bombs matter,” proclaimed poet and activist Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner.  Comments:  The testing of over 2,050 nuclear devices over the last seven decades by the nine nuclear weapons states has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations especially native peoples and hundreds of thousands of military “participants.”  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people today due to nuclear testing.  (Sources:  Thomas B. Cochran, William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Milton M. Hoenig.  “Nuclear Weapons Databook: Volume II, Appendix B.”  National Resources Defense Council, Inc., Cambridge, MA:  Ballinger Publishing Co., 1987, page 151, and “The Dome.” ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). December 5, 2017 http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/the-dome/9198340 and “Marshall Islands Lawsuit.”  Nukewatch:  Nuclear Watch New Mexico. https://nukewatch.org/Marshall_Islands_lawsuit.html both accessed Jan. 29, 2019.)

    April 23, 30, 2007 – The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) was first established in Australia on April 23rd and then formally launched internationally in Vienna during the NPT PrepCom meeting a week later on April 30th.  Campaign coordinator Felicity Hill urged all countries to begin negotiations without delay on a nuclear weapons convention.  During that week, Nobel Peace Prize winner Jody Williams who spearheaded the campaign in the 1990s to prohibit anti-personnel landmines proclaimed, “In a world of increasing nuclear danger, it’s time for an international convention to abolish nuclear weapons.  We are told by some governments that a nuclear weapons convention is premature and unlikely.  Don’t believe it.  We were told the same thing about a landmine ban treaty.”  ICAN, which grew exponentially to encompass a plethora of nongovernmental organizations in 100 nations, including the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, helped rejuvenate a decades-long avalanche of planetary anti-nuclear activism which culminated on July 7, 2017 with a landmark vote in the United Nations General Assembly for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) approved by two-thirds of the world’s nations. Although the nine nuclear weapons states including the United States disavowed the treaty, global support for the convention is growing stronger as time passes.  Comments:  ICAN won a Nobel Peace Prize for its prominent role in the U.N. nuclear weapons prohibition treaty.  Like other successful political movements of the past such as the international effort to end African slavery of the 19th century and the worldwide women’s suffrage and liberation movements of the 19th through 21st centuries, nuclear abolition evolved from the objections of a small group of people – Manhattan Project scientists – to encompass a growing consensus of philosophers and thinkers of the 1950s through 1970s, increasing its popularity among larger and larger numbers of politicians, scientists, celebrities and citizens thanks to SANE/FREEZE, Global Zero and other similar international campaigns in the last forty years to reach a tipping point – the beginning of the end of nuclear weapons.  However, at the same time, we’ve entered one of the most dangerous periods in all of human history, a renewed offensive and defensive nuclear arms race fueled by belligerent, unstable, and impulsive leaders and accepted by hundreds of millions of distracted, unaware supporters who erroneously believe that “nuclear deterrence” and “peace through strength” are the only legitimate and safe pathways for centuries to come.  As Albert Einstein warned, “The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watched them without doing anything.”  The entire citizenry of the planet must redouble their efforts to persuade, cajole, and convince the leaders and populace of the nine nuclear nations that eventually the unthinkable will happen unless humanity joins together to stop it.  Failure is not an option.  (Sources:  International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.  https://www.ican.org/campaign/campaign-overview/campaign-milestones-2007/ accessed Feb. 2, 2019 and other alternative news media websites.)

    May 8, 2018 – President Donald Trump unilaterally, and against the advice of several of America’s strongest European allies (France, Germany and the U.K.) who were also parties to the deal, signed a presidential memorandum to withdraw the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, popularly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal of 2015.  It appears to most observers that the 45th President was against this deal for a long period of time claiming that he personally knew that Iran was lying about their desire to only develop a peaceful nuclear program.  He also argued that the recent trove of Iranian documents provided by the Israelis proved he was correct.  In actuality, the vast majority of international nuclear experts, including inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, continued to believe that Iran was complying with the terms of the deal, that in fact, the documents released around this time by Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu did not provide any previously unknown revelations about Iranian nuclear activities from 10-15 years ago.  Several weeks later in July, Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian President, responded to the U.S. going back on its word through the sudden and unexpected withdraw from the agreement and by renewed economic sanctions imposed on his nation by warning the Trump Administration “not to pursue hostile policies toward Iran.”  Predictably, the Tweeter-in-Chief then exploded in anger by texting what amounts to a nuclear threat, “Never, ever threaten the United States again or you will suffer consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered before.”  Comments:  It seems likely that Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal may have ironically pushed the Iranians to redirect assets from civilian nuclear pursuits in order to more quickly develop a nuclear warhead under the reasoning that a nuclear-armed regime like North Korea is much more likely to deter U.S. attempts to overthrow their government through overt or covert means.  More importantly, while many nuclear analysts note that Cold War tensions have been building during the Bush and Obama presidencies with the complicity of Russian President Vladimir Putin, it is clear that Donald Trump has almost single-handedly redoubled the risks of a potential nuclear conflict through his commitment to increase Obama-era spending on nuclear modernization, threaten Russia and China by promoting a stepped up push for strategic missile defenses on the ground and in outer space, end U.S. participation in the ultra-successful three decade-old INF Treaty which helped eliminate over two thousand Russian and American intermediate and medium-range nuclear missiles and refuse to commit the U.S. to extend the New START Treaty before it expires in February of 2021.  Defeating President Trump in the upcoming election in November of 2020, a task that addresses many domestic and international concerns near and dear to the American people (including ending U.S.-support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, restricting the President’s escalation of drone strikes which have increased “collateral” deaths and injuries to civilians in the nations targeted, restoring the critical role of peaceful diplomatic negotiations to U.S. foreign policy, stopping wasteful spending on an unnecessary border wall, restoring domestic safety net programs to aid the elderly, retired, poor, handicapped, and other minorities, and resolving many other issues), is looking more and more like a global imperative in order to prevent an increasingly likely nuclear war occurring somewhere in the world and caused directly or indirectly by Trump’s dangerously unstable finger on the nuclear trigger. (Sources: Jon Greenberg, John Kruzel, and Amy Sherman. “Trump Withdrawals U.S. From the Iran Nuclear Deal: Here’s What You Need to Know.”  May 8, 2018 https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2018/may/08/trump-withdrew-us-iran-deal-heres-what-you/ and Lawrence Wittner.  “Lurching Toward Catastrophe:  The Trump Administration and Nuclear Weapons.”  Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. Nov. 26, 2018 https://wagingpeace.davidmolinaojeda.com/lurching-toward-catastrophe-the-trump-administration-and-nuclear-weapons/ both accessed on Feb. 19, 2019.)

    May 18, 1974 – India conducted its first nuclear explosive test – an underground test conducted at Pokharan in the Rajasthan Desert, codenamed Smiling Buddha.  The Indian government falsely claimed that their 12 kiloton test (later downgraded by the U.S. intelligence community to four to six kilotons) was a “peaceful nuclear explosion.” Twenty-four years later India conducted two more sets of nuclear tests totaling a combined five explosions on May 11th and 13, 1998 with the highest yield of 43 kilotons followed by five Pakistani nuclear tests, four on May 28th and another blast on May 30th with yields in the 15-35 kiloton range at the Chagai Hill region near their border with Iran.  Just a year later in May-July 1999, a near-nuclear conflict ensued between those nations in the mountainous Kargil region of Kashmir as both sides traded artillery and small arms fire, and conducted air strikes that saw the loss of several aircraft and total casualties that reached about 1,000 personnel.  If India had not prevailed in this so-called ‘Kargil War’ it is possible they may have resorted to the use of one or more small yield nuclear weapons which were in fact readied for possible use during this crisis, according to some experts. The threat of a South Asian nuclear conflict increased dramatically again during a military crisis between the two nations from December 2001 through June 2002 after India’s parliament was attacked by Islamist militants who allegedly had ties to the Pakistani government.  Yet another tripwire to nuclear war was avoided in 2008 after a terrorist attack on Mumbai, India was linked to intelligence agencies in Pakistan.  Since then, there is even more cause for concern as two militant attacks struck two Indian army bases in 2016 (the Uri Attack on Sept. 18th that killed 20 soldiers and the Nagrota attack on Nov. 29th that killed seven) and the Indians responded on Sept. 29th with “surgical strikes by special forces across the Line of Control in Kashmir   And just a few weeks ago on Feb. 14, 2019 a suicide bomber and member of the Pakistan-based Islamist militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed struck an Indian convoy killing 40 Indian security personnel in the Pulwana district of Kashmir.  In late February India retaliated for recent attacks by launching the first air strikes outside the Line of Control in Kashmir since 1971.  Then Pakistan announced it had captured two pilots from planes it says it shot down, but thankfully in a move to deescalate tensions Pakistani authorities said they would return the men to India.  However it is a known fact that violence has been going on for quite a while as regular artillery exchanges between Pakistani and Indian troops have been common for many years in this extremely volatile region.  India’s nuclear doctrine mandates that if its conventional forces suffer a nuclear attack, it would respond with an all-out nuclear counterstrike targeting Pakistani population centers.  Pakistan has threatened to respond in a similar fashion.  Comments:  A nuclear war in South Asia would have a devastating impact not just on the region but on the planet.  With India’s strong ties to the United States and Pakistan’s growing relationship with China, such a war could escalate to a global one.  This situation represents yet another paramount reason why global nuclear arsenals should be dramatically reduced without delay and eliminated at the earliest possible opportunity.  (Sources:  Various mainstream and alternative news media sources and Kumar Sundaram. “20 Years of Nuclear Tests by India and Pakistan:  The Real Nuclear Danger in Asia That Nobody Is Talking About.”  Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. May 25, 2018 https://wagingpeace.davidmolinaojeda.com/20-years-nuclear-tests-india-pakistan-real-nuclear-danger-asi…, The Growing Threat of Nuclear War and the Role of the Health Community.” World Medical Journal.  Vol. 62, No. 3, October 2016 http://lab.arstubiedriba.lv/WMJ/vol62/3-october-2016/slides/slide-8.jpg, “The Kargil Conflict.” Encyclopedia of India.  Thomson Gale Publishers. 2006 http://www.encyclopedia.com/international/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/kargil-conflict all of which were accessed Feb. 20, 2019 and David Grahame and Jack Mendelsohn, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information. 2002, pp. 11, 20-21.)

    May 23, 1967 – Nuclear war was barely avoided on this date, one of at least dozens and possibly hundreds of near-misses that almost triggered a nuclear World War III.  Such a nuclear holocaust not only would have killed hundreds of millions of targeted civilians west and east of the Iron Curtain, in North America, and all over Eurasia, but also precipitated global nuclear winter killing billions globally as temperatures plummeted because of huge amounts of dust and debris ejected into the stratosphere by the nuclear blasts.  Such an eventuality would have led to the breakdown of global agriculture and the end of civilization, if not the entirety of the human species.  Ironically the source of this near-nuclear fusion bomb Armageddon came from the nearest star – our nuclear-powered sun which experienced one of the largest solar storms of the late 20th century on this date.  The near-catastrophe occurred when the U.S. Strategic Air Command detected the sudden failure of multiple radars operated in the Arctic and at other sites around the world by the Air Force’s Ballistic Missile Early Warning System.  It was apparently a scenario envisioned by some nuclear war planners – a massive Soviet electronic jamming offensive to cover a bolt-from-the-blue nuclear first strike by the Kremlin.  Thankfully and luckily, minutes before a large U.S. nuclear bomber force was launched, the North American Aerospace Command (NORAD), thanks to information provided by the newly established Solar Forecasting Center, ordered commanders to stand down as massive solar flares and radio bursts were correctly judged as being responsible for the collapse of early warning communication systems.  But had those U.S. planes launched before the warning was relayed by land line phones, there would have been no way to recall them due to the disruption of all radio traffic by the storm.  Comments:  The human race has been very lucky in avoiding a devastating nuclear war, but it is not wise to rely on good fortune forever.  It would be much more prudent if the people of the Earth were able to convince the leaders of the nine nuclear weapons nations to immediately de-alert strategic nuclear forces, dramatically reduce those and all other nuclear weapons and permanently dismantle this nuclear doomsday machine before it is too late. (Source:  Avery Thompson.  “How a Solar Flare Almost Triggered a Nuclear War in 1967.”  PopularMechanics.com. Aug. 10, 2016 https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a22265/solar-flare-nuclear-war/ accessed Feb. 14, 2019.)

    June 12, 1982 – An estimated one million people gathered in Central Park on Manhattan Island in support of the Second United Nations’ Special Session on Disarmament and as a reaction to the largest military buildup since the beginning of the Cold War as ordered by President Reagan.  It was one of the largest ever antiwar and antinuclear demonstrations in global history and some believe that it signaled the beginning of the end of the Cold War (1945-1991), just as previous demonstrations had helped convince leaders to end other conflicts such as the divisive Vietnam War.  Comments:  Global citizenry have staged many other protests and demonstrations both before and after this event and it is hoped that antinuclear activism will grow substantially thanks to the successful negotiation and signing of the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).  Every citizen on the planet must redouble their efforts to speak out or protest against the existence of nuclear weapons as it is the paramount priority of our species (along with addressing accelerating global climate change).  Jane Addams (1860-1935), the 1931 Nobel Peace Prize winner, may have said it best, “Nothing could be worse than the fear that one has given up too soon and left one effort unexpended which might have saved the world.” (Sources:  Paul L. Montgomery.  “Throngs Fill Manhattan to Protest Nuclear Weapons.”  New York Times. June 13, 1982 https://www.nytimes.com/1982/06/13/world/throngs-fill-manhattan-to-protest-nuclear-weapons.html and “Nuclear Weapons Timeline.’  International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. http://www.icanw.org/the-facts/the-nuclear-age/ both accessed Feb. 19, 2019.)

    June 30, 1975 – In a report issued approximately on this date, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (referred to then as the Atomic Energy Commission) estimated that a serious civilian nuclear reactor mishap, not unlike the partial meltdown of three reactors on March 11, 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex, could result in 45,000 fatalities, 100,000 injuries, and $17 billion dollars in property damage.  A similar analysis that was reported in 1977 by the prestigious, mainstream Ford Foundation’s Nuclear Energy Policy Study Group concluded that, “a single major nuclear incident could produce as many as several thousand immediate fatalities and several tens of thousands of latent cases of cancer that would be fatal within 30 years.”  Comments:  Over the last five decades and even longer – since the first nuclear power plants were commissioned in the Fifties – we’ve seen numerous so-called “small-scale” reactor breaches, significant radioactive contamination events, leakage of toxins into drinking aquifers, and many other incidents—some hushed up by the very industry that today lobbies for and represents nuclear power as safe, clean, and inexpensive.  Wrong on all three counts!  Evidence of higher cancer rates and negative health impacts around hundreds of worldwide military and civilian reactor sites abound.  Industry “experts” always point to statements like “except for three events in the last forty years, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, nuclear power has proven itself again and again.” Proven what exactly? Another flawed argument is the industry line that “nuclear power is a green alternative to other carbon heavy sources of energy.”  Supposedly once switched on, the reactor has absolutely no carbon footprint.  Technically correct but factually wrong.  It is the equivalent of saying that a man jumping off a tall building only risks death when his body reaches the ground!  There is, in fact, a huge impact.  These impacts come from the mining of vast amounts of uranium, remediating uranium mill tailings, using heavy construction and excavation equipment to build large, expensive containment domes as well as all the support facilities accompanying a nuclear power plant including future temporary and very long-term nuclear waste storage sites.  Even the supposedly technologically sophisticated smaller “new” reactor designs are still a problem, smaller means more and more is not necessarily better when we are talking about nuclear energy.   Also noteworthy is the expense and pollution caused by hauling away tons of light-, medium-, and highly-radioactive contaminated clothing, gloves, containers, manipulator arms, and the actual reactor cores, control rods, and other “hot” material.  All of this has a huge carbon signature not to mention the tremendous monetary cost of securing radioactive materials and the large accompanying physical plant from attack by suicidal terrorists (including the risk of fuel-filled jumbo jets crashing into reactor buildings at their least fortified point of entry).  And what about the pesky problem of what to do with staggering amounts of contaminated waste piling up at reactor sites, including sometimes quite vulnerable off-site high-level waste pools,  all over the planet—transporting it, guarding it during and after transit until safely deposited deep underground.  All these required steps involve unknown levels of planning and expense (most appropriately because it is entirely possible accidents or purposeful mischief—terrorism—during pick-up, transit, and deep underground placement is a distinct possibility) and represent a significant threat level to a large number of Americans and their long-term sources of safe, clean drinking water.  For how long?   The answer is chilling.  One of the radioactive elements we’re dealing with, plutonium, has a radioactive half-life of 24,400 years! Remember the words of someone even the nuclear industry cannot characterize as a radical, tree-hugging leftie—the founder of America’s nuclear navy—the late Admiral Hyman Rickover who noted during a Congressional hearing in January 1982 that, “Until about two billion years ago, it was impossible to have any life on Earth…there was so much radiation.  Now when we use nuclear weapons or nuclear power, we are creating something which nature has been eliminating…the most important thing we could do is…first outlaw nuclear weapons to start with, then we outlaw nuclear reactors too.” But the nuclear industry’s line of “safe, clean and reliable” is so powerful that politicians  have gone along with the industry gravy train (accepting their huge political campaign contributions) and put their collective heads in the sand in regards to the tremendous impact of nuclear accidents—that though unforeseen are, in fact, reliably predictable over the long-term.  This represents yet another reason why we need to not only rid the world of nuclear weapons but also nuclear power plants (with the possible exception of small-scale nuclear medical facilities and international scientific attempts to create stable nuclear fusion).  An ancillary and truly wonderful benefit of phasing out nuclear power by 2030 worldwide would be the impact this would have on greatly reducing the weapons proliferation risk of all nuclear reactors—from small research reactors at many college campuses to larger electrical power units, including reducing the threat of terrorists acquiring “dirty bombs” or radiological weapons.  (Sources:  Mainstream and alternative news media sources and Louis Rene Beres.  “Apocalypse:  Nuclear Catastrophe in World Politics.”  Chicago:  University of Chicago Press. 1980, Jeffrey W. Mason. “Letter to the Editor:  Deadly Risks of Civilian Nuclear Power Are Too High.”  Maryland Independent. March 18, 2011 and Miles Traer.  “Fukushima Five Years Later: Stanford Nuclear Expert Offers Three Lessons From The Disaster.”  Stanford News. March 4, 2016 https://news.stanford.edu/2016/03/04/fukushima-lessons-ewing-030416/ accessed Feb. 21, 2019.)

  • October: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    October 3, 1952 – The first British nuclear test, code-named Hurricane, took place near the Monte Bello Islands off the northwest coast of Australia as a 25-kiloton warhead was exploded inside of the warship HMS Plym. This nuclear test was one of 315 nuclear test explosions conducted by the U.S., France, and the U.K. in the Pacific region during a half-century, 1946-96, according to a 2014 report by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).  (Source:  Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.” Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information, 2002, p. 5.)

    October 5, 1960 – While visiting NORAD’s underground Colorado Springs headquarters as part of a public relations campaign extolling the Pentagon’s ability to defend against a Soviet nuclear attack, Peter Peterson, the executive director of Bell and Howell, the firm’s president Charles Percy, as well as IBM president Thomas J. Watson, Jr. were flabbergasted when U.S. Air Force personnel informed them that there was a 99.9 percent certainty that the Soviet Union had just launched a salvo of ICBMs at the U.S., triggering a DefCon 1 alert.  This false alert, one of many over the nearly seventy years of the nuclear era, occurred as a result of the new Thule Air Force Base, Greenland’s Ballistic Missile Early Warning System radars mistakenly identifying the rising moon over Norway as a spread of Soviet missiles.  (Source:   Eric Schlosser.  “Command and Control:  Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.”  New York:  Penguin Press, 2013, pp. 253-54; 542.)

    October 11-12, 1986 – President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev (who later won the 1990 Nobel Peace Prize) met at a strategic summit in Reykjavik, Iceland.  Although Reagan had espoused serious anti-communist rhetoric calling the Soviet Union “the focus of evil in the modern world” and joking that “we begin bombing Russia in five minutes,” by this time, even the 40th U.S. President, acknowledging the true horror of nuclear war as portrayed in the film The Day After, had actually stated that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”  In that spirit, the President surprised Gorbachev, when both men met alone with only their translators present without military and diplomatic aides in tow, by proposing that they eliminate all nuclear weapons.  Ultimately, Gorbachev’s insistence that the U.S. eliminate or curtail the space- and ground-based Strategic Defense Initiative (dubbed “Star Wars” by the press) missile defense shield caused the President to backtrack on his offer.  An agreement for limits of 1,600 on strategic nuclear delivery systems and 6,000 on ICBM and submarine-launched ballistic missiles as well as air-launched cruise missile warheads was put off until the December 1987 Washington Summit.  (Source:  Oliver Stone and Peter Kuznick.  “The Untold History of the United States.” New York:  Gallery Books, 2012.)

    October 16, 1964 – The People’s Republic of China exploded its first nuclear weapon, producing a yield of approximately 15 kilotons, at the Lop Nor test site on the Qinghai Plateau in Sinkiang Province.  Less than three years later, on June 17, 1967, the PRC tested their first thermonuclear device, a three megaton bomb dropped over the Lop Nor test site.  Sixteen years after their first nuclear test, China promised that their October 16, 1980 atmospheric test would be their last.  Like other members of the Nuclear Club, China’s atmospheric nuclear tests were responsible for serious negative global and regional health and environmental impacts, some of which have persisted to this day.  Thankfully, 34 years later, no other nation has exploded a nuclear weapon in Earth’s atmosphere thanks to arms control successes like the Limited Test Ban Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the latter of which the U.S. Senate (which voted to reject CTBT ratification by a vote of 51-48 on October 13, 1999) should ultimately ratify now that verification technologies have advanced to reliably detect any nuclear test cheaters.   (Source:  Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information, 2002, pp.10, 12, 22.)

    October 22, 2013 – GOP fundraiser and billionaire Sheldon Adelson, speaking to a crowd at New York’s Yeshiva University, advised President Barack Obama to explode a nuclear warhead in Iran’s desert region in order to coerce that nation’s leaders in Tehran to halt uranium enrichment and alleged nuclear-bomb making.  Iran continues to insist that it is not interested in building nuclear weapons, but even if these declarations aren’t credible, negotiations are a much more peaceful and reasonable means to persuade Iran to curtail these activities.   In the past, nuclear brinksmanship and threats by the Nuclear Club members have often resulted in long-term dangerous, destabilizing asymmetrical responses by smaller nations as well as delaying or even preventing nuclear agreements from reaching fruition as in the case of North Korea.   (Sources:  Press reports from mainstream media such as the Washington Post and New York Times as well as alternative media such as Democracy Now.)

    October 23, 1994 – The U.S. and Democratic Republic of Korea (North Korea) signed an agreed framework to freeze the North Korean nuclear program and halt that nation’s withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.   Unfortunately, over the last 20 years, a series of setbacks have resulted in several North Korean underground nuclear tests and no end to nuclear tensions on the Korean peninsula in the foreseeable future.  Comment:  A new nuclear agreement with Korea and a formal treaty ending the state of war that has existed since 1950 (that the Armistice of 1953 has not officially ended) between North and South Korea should be a paramount priority during the last two years of the Obama Administration.   (Source:  Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  The Center for Defense Information, 2002, pp. 3.)

    October 28, 1962 – The Cuban Missile Crisis ended on this date.  “It was perhaps the most dangerous issue which the world has had to face since the end of the Second World War” according to then British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan.  Today this is still true, with the possible exception of the 1983 NATO Able Archer exercise, interpreted by Soviet leaders as a military exercise disguising a nuclear first strike by the U.S.   During the very tense thirteen days of October 1962, the world came the closest it has ever come to thermonuclear war when Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev secreted 42 SS-4 nuclear-tipped medium-range ballistic missiles (range: 1,200 miles) along with approximately 100 tactical nuclear warheads including nuclear torpedoes, cruise missiles, and short-range rockets to the island of Cuba.  Several times during the crisis, unexpected events like the Russian shoot down of a U.S. U-2 spy plane over the island or the U.S. Navy’s firing of depth charges at Soviet submarines, nearly triggered World War III.  Secret diplomacy between lower-level representatives of both nations helped President John Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev agree to finally end the stalemate and remove the Cuban missiles (along with a secret quid-pro-quo promise by Kennedy to remove obsolete Jupiter missiles from Turkey at a later date).  (Sources:  Michael Mandelbaum.  “The Nuclear Question: The U.S. and Nuclear Weapons, 1946-76.”  New York:  Cambridge University Press, 1979, p. 129 and Robert L. O’Connell.  The Cuban Missile Crisis: Second Holocaust.  in  Robert Cowley, ed. “What Ifs? of American History.”  New York:  Berkley Books, 2003, pp. 251-272.)

    October 30, 1949 – Led by Manhattan Project scientific director Dr. J. Robert Oppenheimer, the General Advisory Committee to the Atomic Energy Commission (a forerunner to today’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission) voted unanimously to oppose building hydrogen bombs as those weapons constituted, “a threat to the future of the human race.”  But President Truman and other atomic scientists like Edward Teller disagreed and pushed hard to beat the Soviets in the race to build a new, significantly more powerful generation of nuclear weapons.   The U.S. exploded its first H-bomb on November 1, 1952 and the Soviets on August 12, 1953.  (Sources:  Oliver Stone and Peter Kuznick.  “The Untold History of the United States.”  New York:  Gallery Books, 2012 and Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  The Center for Defense Information, 2002, pp. 5-6.)