Tag: broken arrow

  • This Summer in Nuclear Threat History

    July 2, 1945 – On this date, U.S. Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson’s memorandum to President Harry S. Truman concluded that, “…we have enormous factors in our favor and any step which can be taken to translate those advantages into a prompt and successful conclusion of the war should be taken.” Stimson reiterated to President Truman his earlier belief that the Japanese would react positively to a warning or ultimatum for conditional surrender which also offered appropriate assurances that the Japanese emperor Hirohito (considered by almost the entirety of the Japanese people as the godhead of their Shinto religion – the 124th in direct line of descent from the sun goddess Amaterasu – in other words, a divine being or Son of Heaven) would not be charged with war crimes, deposed, or subjected to imprisonment or execution. Also critical was the Emperor’s almost unprecedented secular intervention in the form of cables (intercepted and translated by the Allies) that were sent from the Japanese Foreign Minister Togo to Ambassador Sato in Moscow on July 13-14 which stated, “His Majesty, the Emperor…desires from his heart that it [the war] may be quickly terminated.” These and related facts could have created momentum for the U.S. and its allies (with the possible exception of the Soviet Union which was bound by agreements signed with the U.S. and Britain to enter the war with Japan [which it did on August 8, 1945] spurred on in part by its desire to reacquire territory it lost in the 1905 Russo-Japanese War) to end the war with Japan before the August 6 and 9 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Instead, the excuse of dropping the bombs to prevent huge hypothetical casualties (both American and Japanese) in an upcoming invasion of Japan, an argument made largely irrelevant by the Soviet declaration of war against Imperial Japan, which convinced the Japanese that continued fighting was even more pointless, held sway both then and today. The President, Secretary of State James Byrnes, Manhattan Project director General Leslie R. Groves, a majority of the Congress (incensed with the possibility that two billion dollars were spent for a superweapon that would not be used), and other hardliners felt it was essential to demonstrate the destructiveness of the Bomb and press America’s atomic diplomatic strength in its future postwar dealings with the Soviet Union. (Source: Gar Alperovitz. “The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb and the Architecture of An American Myth.” New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1995, pp. 35, 232-35, 667-68.)

    July 16-22, 1994 – 21 fragments of the shattered comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, the largest of which was approximately 2.5 miles in diameter, impacted the planet Jupiter with an approach speed of sixty kilometers a second (130,000 miles-per-hour). The explosions that followed were estimated to total in the range of six to twenty million megatons of TNT, hundreds of times more than all of the world’s nuclear weapons. Temperatures rose as high as the surface of the sun (10,000+ degrees centigrade) and fireballs 5,000 miles across spewed out through chimneys the comet fragments drilled into the gas giant planet’s atmosphere. Comment: In retrospect, humanity should realize that the tremendous chaos and violence of the Cosmos, including not only comet/asteroid impacts, but immense stellar explosions, entire galaxies wracked by deadly gamma ray bursts, and huge black holes and quasars, all pervade this gigantically large universe. Cannot humans with their intellect, wisdom, and morality recognize that our planet was always meant to be an oasis from this violence. That one purpose of our species’ evolution is to preserve, protect, and expand this zone of stability and peace. For, in our ego and superego, should we choose nuclear violence, our intellect knows that our puny efforts pale before the violence of nature. Therefore, we choose peace! The entirety of our species must recognize that nuclear devices are doomsday weapons that must never be exploded anywhere under, on, or near the Earth’s surface or above the atmosphere in near-Earth space. In future decades when humanity has dramatically reduced the number of nuclear weapons, while also verifying these global reductions by more sophisticated technical means, it may be necessary however to retain an internationally controlled arsenal of perhaps a hundred nuclear weapons to be used in the worst-case scenario, if more traditional means are unavailable, in order to divert an asteroid or comet that threatens to impact our planet. (Sources: James R. Asker. “Jupiter Comet is a Smash Hit.” Aviation Week & Space Technology. July 24, 1994, pp. 20-22, Douglas Messier. “Nuking Dangerous Asteroids Might Be The Best Protection, Expert Says.” Space.com. May 29, 2013 https://www.space.com/21333-asteroid-nuke-spacecraft-mission.html and James Reston, Jr. “Collision Course: Jupiter is About to be Walloped by a Comet.” Time, May 23, 1994, pp. 54-61.)

    July 27, 1956 – During a training exercise, a U.S. B-47 bomber crashed into a storage bunker holding three Mark 6 nuclear bombs at Lakenheath Air Force Base near Suffolk, England killing the entire crew. Bomb disposal experts later determined that it was a miracle that one Mark 6 bomb (with a potential yield in the range of 6-180 kilotons) with an unprotected, exposed nuclear detonator did not explode. If it had, this “Broken Arrow” nuclear accident might have inadvertently triggered World War III! Many years later, Sandia National Laboratory reported that at least 1,200 nuclear weapons were involved in significant accidents just in the period between 1950 and 1968. In 1968 alone it was reported that approximately seventy missiles armed with nuclear warheads had been struck by lightning. Comments: Many of the thousands of serious violations of security protocols, accidents, and other nuclear weapons incidents involving all nine nuclear weapons states still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny. These near-nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating global nuclear weapons arsenals. (Source: Eric Schlosser. “Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.” New York: Penguin Press, 2013, pp. 170, 327-329, 556.)

    August 3-31, 2019 – Pentagon spokespersons indicated on March 13, 2019 that the United States military will take advantage of the Trump Administration’s withdrawal from the 1987 INF Treaty (U.S. adherence to the treaty technically ends on August 2, 2019) by testing two new non-treaty compliant short- to intermediate-range tactical nuclear weapons, specifically a low-flying advanced ground-based cruise missile with a potential range of 1,000 kilometers during the month of August. The other weapon system, to be tested in the coming months after August 2019 will be another non-treaty complaint weapon, a 3,000 to 4,000 kilometer-range ballistic missile. Neither would be nuclear-armed a Pentagon official told reporters but of course those systems are obviously nuclear-capable. Equipped with conventional or “low-yield” nuclear warheads, these platforms would be capable of striking Russian weapons or command and control targets with very little warning. The spokesperson said that these newly deployed weapons will give the U.S. more flexibility “to tailor the approach of deterring one or more potential adversaries in difficult circumstances.” This capability would allow the Pentagon to use nuclear weapons in a wider range of potential scenarios which presumably would include responding to a cyberattack on U.S. command and control facilities or even a general cyberattack on the U.S. homeland by exploding a nuclear weapon a hundred miles above our nation, which would cause an EMP (electro-magnetic pulse) effect to negatively impact not only U.S. military computers but also e-commerce and e-utilities in the U.S. or an allied nation. The Pentagon thinks these new non-treaty compliant weapons will make such attacks less likely. Comments: Experts like Michael Klare argue that the dangers of such a policy are stark. These deployments could result in destabilizing nuclear deterrence by having the Russian and Chinese, and possibly other nuclear weapons states that see the U.S. as a threat, adopt a policy of launch-on-warning. Klare also argues that, “No Russian leader could ever assume an American president would refrain from retaliating with nuclear arms against a Russian nuclear strike (however ‘low yield’).” And Klare notes that if escalation toward a larger nuclear war is somehow avoided, “even the unlikely use of just one so-called low yield nuclear device will produce a humanitarian catastrophe so vast as to outweigh any conceivable advantage from their deployment or single use.” Similarly House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-WA) noted that, “If you introduce them (low-yield nuclear weapons), you cannot predict what your adversaries are going to counter with (hypersonic offshore SLBMs, orbital nuclear bombs like the old Soviet FOBs, etc) and an all-out nuclear war is the likely result, with the complete destruction of the planet.” (Sources: Robert Burns. “Pentagon Plans Tests of Long-Banned Types of Missiles.” Associated Press. March 13, 2019 https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/03/13/pentagon-plans-tests-o… and Michael T. Klare. “Making Nuclear Weapons Menacing Again.” The Nation. March 21, 2019 http://www.thenation.com/article/us-nuclear-arsenal-triad/?link_id=9&can_id=943a553d03… both accessed April 17, 2019.)

    August 2, 2007 – Three presidential election campaigns ago, then Democratic presidential candidate Barack H. Obama, who later was elected the 44th President of the United States, was asked an unusual yet seminal question about nuclear weapons, a matter that strangely isn’t usually considered a paramount issue by the mainstream corporate news media. Candidate Obama was asked if elected whether he might use nuclear weapons in Afghanistan or Pakistan to defeat terrorism and specifically target Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. He replied, “I think it would be a profound mistake for us to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance…involving civilians.” While this was at least a good starting place to begin to answer this question from the perspective of the global nuclear abolition movement, he should have also discussed the short- and long-term impact of the horrific impact of the use of even a so-called smaller yield nuclear weapon (including blast effects, shock waves, and radioactive fallout spread by the winds to potentially a very large geographic area in the region) on the large number of innocent noncombatant civilians in the target zone as well as the tremendous potential for first use (in combat since 1945) to serve as a trip-wire for other nations’ likelihood of striking their enemies with these unconscionable weapons. However, apparently not wanting to appear too much of a dovish future commander-in-chief, he quickly added, “Let me scratch that. There’s been no discussion of nuclear weapons. That’s not on the table.” His Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, then responded to Obama’s statement by informing a Reuters’ reporter, “Presidents never take the nuclear option off the table.” Almost a decade later, then candidate Donald Trump on March 30, 2016 said essentially the same thing to reporter Chris Matthews while also adding some hair-raising, shocking rhetoric about the possibility that he might actually pull the nuclear trigger for any number of reasons if he was elected president. Comments: These frightening comments by recent political candidates to include two sitting presidents, especially those by former President Barack Obama who specifically spoke out numerous times about eliminating nuclear weapons and won a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts, are particularly disturbing. Unfortunately, it seems clear that the military-industrial-Congressional-corporate news media-Democratic-Republican complex will not legitimize candidates who express any substantial doubt, reservation, or even modest adjustments to the long established and worshipped U.S.-fabricated theory of nuclear deterrence. But in the current era of a rejuvenated Cold War and a commitment by essentially all nine nuclear weapons states to modernize and expand their existing nuclear arsenals, it is paramount that this dire global state of affairs must change. And this change must come now in the midst of the 2020 U.S. presidential election campaign! The stakes are too high to allow only a small clique of top political and military leaders to tell the rest of humanity what should and should not be true regarding these doomsday weapons and the so-called promises of the flawed, imperfect theory of nuclear deterrence that we have put so much misguided faith in. The late planetary astronomer, science educator, and nuclear winter theorist, Carl Sagan (1934-1996) may have said it best, “For we are the local embodiment of the Cosmos grown to self-awareness…Our loyalties are to the species and the planet. We speak for Earth. Our obligation to survive is owed not just to ourselves but also to that Cosmos, ancient and vast, from which we spring.” (Sources: Daniel Ellsberg. “The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner.” New York: Bloomsbury, 2017, pp. 329, 331, and 382 and various mainstream and alternative news media sources.)

    August 28, 2018 – The California State Senate, which passed Assembly Joint Resolution 33 earlier in August, on this date formally adopted this resolution which called upon the federal government and other national leaders to work toward signing and ratifying the July 7, 2017 United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The resolution also urged the U.S. government to make nuclear disarmament the centerpiece of national security policy and spearhead a global effort to prevent nuclear war which, “poses(s) an intolerable risk to human survival.” Like dozens of other similar resolutions adopted by numerous global jurisdictions including U.S. cities and states such as Baltimore and Los Angeles in 2018, Washington, DC, Salt Lake City, Hawaii and Oregon in 2019 many of these critical legislative enactments also propose U.S. renunciation of the first use of nuclear weapons, ending the President’s sole unchecked authority to launch a nuclear attack, taking nuclear weapons off their highly dangerous hair-trigger alert status, cancelling the U.S. plan to modernize and replace its entire nuclear arsenal with enhanced weapons (at an estimated cost of $1.7 trillion over the next 30 years), and actively pursuing a verifiable agreement among nuclear-armed states to recognize the real long-term threat of nuclear war by miscalculation, accident, misperception, or unauthorized launch by taking concrete steps to eliminate all nuclear arsenals on the planet. Comments: Over the many decades since nuclear weapons were first invented, powerful, entrenched elites that have enriched the One Percent and brainwashed the other 99 Percent into believing that the only way to survive for countless generations and guarantee antiquated nation-state sovereignty is to threaten to kill hundreds of millions of other inhabitants of the planet, are very slowly but also very methodically losing support for their bankrupt mantras of “Peace Through Strength” and “Nuclear Weapons Keep Us Safe.” Global antinuclear activism has spread from a small group of Manhattan Project physicists to include a plethora of business, legal and scientific leaders, celebrities, and politicians and is growing exponentially to include hundreds of millions of average global citizenry. Legislative, philosophical, scientific, environmental, medical, psychological, and other rationales are daily convincing larger and larger numbers of inhabitants of our fragile planet to reject so-called common sense wisdom about these doomsday weapons and trigger the beginning of the end of the Era of Nuclear Terror that has plagued the human species since 1945. Many antinuclear struggles remain to be fought and won but a dim light at the end of the tunnel is growing brighter each and every day. (Sources: Monique Limon. “California Assembly Joint Resolution 33 – Full Text.” Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. August 29, 2018 (https://wagingpeace.davidmolinaojeda.com/california-assembly-joint-resolution-33-full-text/?link_id-=17… accessed April 17, 2019 and other mainstream and alternative news sources.)

    September 5, 1945 – Less than thirty days after the horrendous atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan by U.S. aircraft, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) became one of the first global organizations to call for the elimination of nuclear weapons – a position that it has consistently held for almost 75 years. The ICRC website notes that, “Since its creation in 1863, the organization’s sole objective has been to ensure protection and assistance for victims of armed conflict and other forms of organized violence. Its story is about the development of humanitarian action, the Geneva Conventions (the First Geneva Convention was enacted by a dozen nations in August of 1864 in order to mandate the compulsory care for all wounded soldiers on the battlefield regardless of which side they were on), and the Red Cross and the Red Crescent Movement.” Comments: Countless number of organizations, governmental bodies, private groups, and individuals have embraced nuclear abolition including most especially the global medical community which has long recognized how utterly impossible it would be to address a post-apocalypse scenario, even a so-called “limited” nuclear war. For that reason, the World Medical Association, through a number of Declarations made in the last few decades at Geneva, Helsinki, and Tokyo has asserted that it is the duty of medical professionals worldwide to work toward the elimination of nuclear weapons. (Sources: Ira Helfand, et.al., “The Growing Threat of Nuclear War and the Role of the Health Community.” World Medical Journal. Vol.62, No. 3, October 2016, p. 91 http://lab.arstubiedriba.lv/WMJ/vol62/3-october-2016/slides/slide-7.jpg and “Eliminating Nuclear Weapons.” International Committee for the Red Cross, May 1, 2015 https://www.icrc.org/en/document/nuclkear-weapons-conference and “History.” International Committee for the Red Cross. https://www.icrc.org/en/who-we-are/history
    all of which were accessed on April 27, 2019.)

    September 11, 2001 – Nineteen hijackers, 15 of whom were Saudi nationals, crashed four commercial aircraft onto U.S. territory destroying the World Trade Center in New York City and partially damaging the Pentagon in Washington, DC in an attack that killed nearly 3,000 people. If the 9-11 attack had been conducted using a nuclear weapon, the impact would have been incredibly worse. For instance, if Manhattan Island was struck by a 150 kiloton terrorist-fabricated nuclear fission bomb (although experts think it more likely the yield would be significantly smaller) exploded in the heart of downtown during daytime hours, the results would be devastating. Estimated fatalities would be over 800,000 people with at least another 900,000-plus injuries not including those caused by later post-blast firestorms. The bombing would result in 20 square miles of property damage not to mention catastrophic impacts on global financial markets if Wall Street was located in or near ground zero. Comments: While the U.S. and other nuclear weapon states are presumably continuing a long-term commitment to prevent theft and illicit diversion of fissile materials needed by terrorists, subnational groups, or smaller nation-states to fabricate nuclear devices, ironically it appears that the 9-11 attack may have made it more likely that a nuclear war could occur. Garrett M. Graff’s book “Raven Rock: The Story of the U.S. Government’s Secret Plan to Save Itself While the Rest of Us Die” has pointed out that thousands of leaders in the U.S. (and by inference, probably the other eight nuclear weapon states) have spent many billions of dollars since the nuclear age began in 1945, and reenergized such spending after September 11, 2001, to ensure the Continuity of Government (COG) and Continuity Of Operations Plan (COOP). Or in more blunt terms (although also somewhat inconsistent with the Nuclear Winter Theory that holds that nuclear wars will trigger the deaths of billions due to the huge amount of post-nuclear strike dust, debris, and firestorm residue that will cloud the Earth’s atmosphere and blot out the sun causing temperatures to plummet and agricultural yields to zero out), the leaders of these nations have created a decades-old secret world of hundreds of hidden bunkers that Graff argues, “is more expansive, powerful, and capable today of ensuring their survival” (as well as many of their family members and professional staff), while at the same time the public has absolutely no hope of surviving a full-scale nuclear conflict. The seminal question that must be asked is: Do these selfish, amoral leaders of the U.S., Russia and other Nuclear Club members really and truly believe that the destruction of global civilization and up to ninety-nine percent or more of our species could in any way be justified rationally? Even the remotest possibility that these set of beliefs exist should make the whole of humanity redouble its efforts to prevent this scenario from ever occurring by pushing even harder for the total elimination of these doomsday weapons. (Sources: Garrett M. Graff. “Raven Rock: The Story of the U.S. Government’s Secret Plan to Save Itself While the Rest of Us Die.” New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017, p. xxiv. and Carrie Rossenfeld, Chris Griffith, et al., “New York City Example.” Nuclear Pathways Project, National Science Foundation’s National Science Digital Library. See www.atomicarchive.com/Example/Example1 accessed April 24, 2019.)

    September 18-19, 1980 – At nuclear launch complex 374-7 located near Little Rock Air Force Base, in Southside, a few miles north of Damascus, Arkansas, a maintenance accident involving a Titan II intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) resulted in three separate explosions that caused a W53 nine megaton nuclear warhead to be thrown several hundred feet from its silo. A technician from the 308th Strategic Missile Wing of the U.S. Air Force, while manipulating an airborne disconnect pressure cap, accidentally dropped a socket wrench which fell 70 feet and ricocheted off the Titan II missile causing a fuel leak that later triggered the explosions that killed or injured several airmen. Thankfully fail-safe devices on the warhead prevented an unintended nuclear explosion. Comments: Hundreds of nuclear incidents including Broken Arrow accidents, involving many armed nuclear devices, have occurred over the decades despite some innovative safety measures pushed on the Pentagon by U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories and nongovernmental experts. Nevertheless, the safest long-term solution to preventing an accidental or unintentional nuclear war is the total or near-total global elimination of these weapons of mass destruction. (Source: Eric Schlosser. “Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.” New York: Penguin Press, 2013.)

  • Nuclear Close Calls

    Below is a series of close calls, or “broken arrows,” where nuclear weapons were misplaced, stolen, damaged, or even detonated. Many of these incidents resulted in casualties, including of innocent civilians, and many others nearly led to nuclear war. These close calls emphasize the lack of proper security for nuclear weapons, and the lack of training and overall competence of militaries and leaders who possess nuclear weapons. There have been far more incidents than those listed here, and likely many that militaries and world leaders withhold as classified. 

    Note about ranking incidents:
    1- Very slight alarm, quickly resolved. There are countless issues of this severity level which occur all the time. For the purposes of this compilation, issues of low severity are not cited.
    2- More serious incident with general risk, quickly resolved.
    3- Specific, serious risk possibly leading to escalation with other state. Causes severe damage, but may be self-contained, only affecting the military personnel and property directly involved. Requires more complex resolution.
    4- Serious risk to wider public; has potential to cause widespread casualties and damage beyond military personnel and property, or to cause escalation in conflict.
    5- Nuclear devices detonate and cause casualties, or confrontation nearly leads to the use of nuclear devices.

     

    November 10, 1950—Plane accidentally drops nuclear weapon
    American plane in Canada, Severity: 4
    A B-50 bomber experiencing mechanical failure drops its Mark 4 atomic bomb over Quebec. Its conventional explosives detonate when it lands in a river, scattering nearly 100 pounds of uranium.

    March 10, 1956—Plane carrying nuclear weapons disappears
    United States, Severity: 3
    A B-47 carrying two types of nuclear capsules from Florida to a base overseas loses contact over the Mediterranean, and is never found.

    July 27, 1956—Plane crashes into bomb storage
    American base in United Kingdom, Severity: 3
    A B-47 bomber skids off the runway on landing and rips into a storage igloo containing Mark 6 atomic bombs before exploding. The bombs do not detonate.

    November 5, 1956—False alarm of Soviet attack
    United States, Soviet Union, United Kingdom, and France, Severity: 3
    British and French forces are attacking Egypt over the Suez Canal, and the Soviet government proposes to the U.S. that they combine non-nuclear forces to halt the attack. While considering this option, U.S. defense forces receive word of what seems to be a Soviet invasion: unidentified aircraft are flying over Turkey, Soviet MIGs are flying over Syria, a British bomber has been shot down over Syria, and the Soviet fleet is moving through the Dardanelles in northwestern Turkey. The American military fears that this might trigger a NATO nuclear strike against the U.S.S.R. All four signs of invasion are later disproven by various unrelated events: the unidentified aircraft were actually a flight of swans, the MIGs were a routine air force escort for the Syrian president as he returned from Moscow, the British bomber was forced down for mechanical reasons, and the Soviet fleet was engaging in routine exercises.

    January 31, 1958—Plane fire with nuclear weapon dropped
    American base in Morocco, Severity: 3
    A B-47 bomber armed with a Mark 36 hydrogen bomb on a Strategic Air Command base in Morocco blows a tire on the runway, which starts a fire that gradually engulfs the plane. The explosives in the bomb burn but do not detonate, melting the plane and bomb into an 8,000 pound block of radioactive metal.

    February 5, 1958—Plane collision drops nuclear weapon
    United States, Severity: 3
    A B-47 bomber collides with another plane over Savannah, Georgia. In order to safely land the damaged bomber, its nuclear bomb is dropped over water. While the nuclear capsule was not in the bomb at the time and therefore did not detonate, the bomb was never found.

    March 11, 1958—Bomb accidentally dropped
    United States, Severity: 4
    A B-47 bomber accidentally drops a Mark 6 atomic bomb into a family’s backyard in Mars Bluff, South Carolina. The nuclear core of the bomb is stored elsewhere in the plane and is therefore not dropped, but the conventional explosives of the bomb wreck the family’s home and injure all six family members.

    November 4, 1958—Plane crash with nuclear weapons on board
    United States, Severity: 3
    A B-47 bomber carrying a Mark 39 hydrogen bomb crashes into a field near Abilene, Texas. Conventional explosives in the bomb detonate, but the nuclear core does not.

    October 15, 1959—Plane collision with nuclear weapons on board
    United States, Severity: 4
    A B-52 bomber carrying two atomic bombs over Hardinsberg, Kentucky collides with an aircraft refueling it at an altitude of 32,000 feet. The crash kills eight crew members and partially burns one of the weapons, although no nuclear material is released.

    October 5, 1960—False alarm suggests attack
    American base in Greenland, Severity: 3
    Radar at the Thule Air Base in Greenland detects dozens of nuclear missiles launched from the Soviet Union towards the United States. The American military begins measures for high alert, but suspects something is wrong, considering that Khrushchev is visiting New York. It turns out radar had misinterpreted a moonrise over Norway.

    January 19, 1961—Plane crash with nuclear weapons on board
    United States, Severity: 3
    A B-52 bomber carrying one or more nuclear weapons explodes over Monticello, Utah due to mechanical failure. Five crewmen are killed, but there is no evidence that the nuclear weapons detonated.

    January 24, 1961—Plane crash drops bombs
    United States, Severity: 4
    A nuclear-armed bomber flying over North Carolina loses a wing, dropping two nuclear bombs into Goldsboro, NC. One of the bombs breaks apart on impact due to a failed parachute, although the nuclear core does not detonate. The other bomb lands unharmed, but five of its six safety devices fail. A nuclear explosion was avoided “by the slightest margin of chance,” as Defense Secretary Robert McNamara described it.

    November 24, 1961—Communications failure suggests enemy attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    Communication between Strategic Air Command (SAC) HQ and three ballistic missile early warning sites goes silent. Considering this a possible sign of enemy attack, all SAC bases in the United States are alerted, and B-52 bombers await orders for takeoff. It is later determined that all communications between SAC and these sites ran through one relay station in Colorado, where the lines went down after a motor overheated.

    August 23, 1962—Navigational error into Soviet airspace
    United States, Severity: 3
    A nuclear-armed B-52 bomber conducting routine surveillance over Alaska makes a navigational error that leads it to within 300 miles of an interceptor base in Soviet airspace. Due to the high likelihood of repeating such an error, Strategic Air Command creates a less provocative route, but fails to officially change it in time—meaning that throughout the Cuban Missile Crisis, the same faulty route was flown 24 hours a day.

    October 1962
    Throughout the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, miscommunications due to the chaotic nature of the issue at hand as well as sheer carelessness led to multiple near-nuclear confrontations.

    Miscommunication possibly signals attack
    United States and European allies, Severity: 3
    When the U.S. orders DEFCON 3 for American forces, the Supreme Commander of NATO decides not to put NATO under the same alert to avoid provoking the U.S.S.R. Several lower-ranking NATO commanders, however, place their individual NATO bases across West Germany, Italy, Turkey, and the U.K. on DEFCON 3 alert, due to miscommunication. Soviet intelligence easily could have interpreted this as a signal of imminent attack.

    Prolonged exercise possibly signals attack
    United Kingdom, Severity: 3
    When the U.S. orders DEFCON 2 on October 24, the British Air Force is carrying out an unrelated exercise. The British exercise is prolonged as the Cuban Missile Crisis heats up, and British nuclear forces are put on high alert, meaning they could launch in 15 minutes. The Soviets easily could have interpreted these separate actions by the U.S. and the U.K. to be coordinated preparations for war.

    October 24, 1962—Satellite explosion misinterpreted as attack
    Soviet Union, Severity: 3
    In the middle of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a Soviet satellite explodes after entering orbit, leading the U.S. to believe that the U.S.S.R is launching an ICBM attack. The American military’s reaction to this event, and how confrontation did not ensue, is still unknown as relevant records remain classified.

    October 25, 1962—False alarm of sabotage almost leads to attack
    United States, Severity: 4
    Late in the evening, a guard at the Duluth Sector Direction Center sees a figure climbing the security fence. He activates the “sabotage alarm,” which sets off alarms at all bases in the area. At a Wisconsin base, a faulty alarm orders nuclear-armed F-106A interceptor planes to take off. Due to the sudden nature of the warning, the F-106A pilots assume World War III has started. The aircraft are stopped as they are taxiing down the runway; the intruder in Duluth was determined to be a bear.

    October 26, 1962—Unannounced missile test possibly signals attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    As tensions between the USSR and the U.S. heighten, DEFCON 3 is ordered and all ICBMs at Vandenberg Air Force Base are fitted with nuclear warheads—except one Titan missile, which is scheduled for a test later that week. The test occurs on the 26th, which potentially causes significant panic in the Soviet Union: it likely knew that the U.S. had fitted its missiles with nuclear warheads, but not that this was only a test launch.

    October 26, 1962—Unannounced missile test causes false alarm of attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    During the Cuban Missile Crisis, radar warning stations that are still under construction are brought online as quickly as possible, which leads to miscommunications and repeated false alarms. One example is the unannounced testing of a Titan II-ICBM off the coast of Florida, which causes one new radar warning station to nearly sound the alarm for nuclear attack.

    October 26, 1962—Nuclear missile left alone with launch codes
    United States, Severity: 3
    As DEFCON 2 is declared, Minuteman I missiles at Malmstrom Air Force Base are hastily prepared for full deployment. At one point on the 26th, all launch-enabling equipment and codes are placed in a silo alongside the corresponding missile. Had there been a miscommunication or desire for sabotage, a single operator could have singlehandedly launched a nuclear-armed missile.

    October 27, 1962
    October 27 is now commonly referred to as “Black Saturday” as it was the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, when both the United States and the Soviet Union came close to initiating nuclear attack multiple times.

    Cruise missiles pointed at the United States
    Soviet base in Cuba, Severity: 4
    In the early morning of October 27, the Soviets deploy nuclear cruise missiles in firing position to within 15 miles of the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay. The U.S. remains completely unaware.

    Wartime radio frequencies signal war
    Soviet Union, Severity: 4
    In the Soviet Union, Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces fuel a series of nuclear-armed ICBMs that can be launched at a moment’s notice. Wireless communication between divisions of the Soviet military and the Strategic Rocket Forces are transferred to wartime frequencies—effectively signifying to the ICBM command post that war has begun.

    Spy plane enters Soviet air space
    United States, Severity: 4
    Meanwhile, an American U2 spy plane enters Soviet air space, attracting the attention of Soviet MIG interceptors, which are ordered to shoot the plane down. American fighter planes loaded with nuclear missiles and ordered to shoot at their own discretion are sent to escort the U2 plane back to American ground.

    Spy plane shot down over Cuba
    United States, Severity: 5
    On the same day, another U2 spy plane is shot down over Cuba. American leaders had previously agreed that they would interpret the shooting of any of their planes as deliberate escalation from the Soviets, and would automatically launch an attack in response. After the plane is shot down, the U.S. decides against attacking right away. It later comes to light that Khrushchev followed similar reasoning, ordering Soviet troops in Cuba not to shoot any American planes for fear of retaliation. The shooting of the U2 was ordered by a junior commander acting in his own authority.

    Submarine almost launches nuclear torpedo
    Soviet Union, Severity: 5
    Perhaps most seriously, eleven U.S. Navy destroyers and aircraft carrier U.S.S. Randolph corner a nuclear-armed Soviet submarine near Cuba. The temperature onboard the submarine rises to high enough temperatures that machinery short-circuits. The U.S. begins hitting the submarine with small depth charges and, unable to contact Moscow, the submarine crew questions whether war has begun. Authorized to launch nuclear torpedoes without express permission from Moscow, two of the three submarine officers onboard vote to launch. The third officer, Vasili Arkhipov, refuses to authorize the launch. Had any other officer been in Arkhipov’s place—whether one who agreed with the two other officers, or one who was more easily pressured by the other officers to authorize the launch—nuclear war likely would have occurred.

    October 28, 1962—Misplaced simulation tape interpreted as attack
    United States, Severity: 4
    Moorestown, New Jersey radar operators inform the national command post that a nuclear attack is under way. In reality, a test tape simulating an attack from Cuba is running on radar machinery just as a satellite comes over the horizon, simulating an incoming Soviet missile. Crisis is averted when the supposed missile does not detonate as predicted, but this incident illustrates the dangerously poor communication that plagued the Cuban Missile Crisis: the radar post that should have informed the Moorestown post of the incoming satellite had been reassigned to different work.

    October 28, 1962—False alarm and miscommunication suggest missile attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    The Laredo radar warning site has just become operational, and mistakes an orbiting satellite as two missiles flying over Georgia. The national command post misidentifies the warning as coming from the more reliable Moorestown post rather than Laredo, and begins preparing to intercept the incoming missiles. The issue is quietly resolved without incident, despite Moorestown failing to intervene and contradict the false warning.

    November 2, 1962—Captured secret agent gives false alarm of nuclear attack
    United Kingdom, Severity: 4
    Soviet intelligence officer Oleg Penkovsky, working as a double-agent for the CIA and MI6, is caught in Moscow and arrested in October. Penkovsky had been given a secret code to warn the U.S. and the U.K. if the Soviet Union was planning a nuclear attack, which consisted of two phone calls one minute apart, uttering just three short breaths each time. On this day in November, Penkovsky calls the MI6 station in Moscow and gives the code. The MI6 officer who receives it assumes that Penkovsky has been captured, and does not warn London or Washington of an incoming attack, and thereby prevents a pre-emptive strike.

    November 9, 1965—Alarm failure announces nuclear attack
    United States, Severity: 2
    Special bomb alarms are installed near military facilities and cities across the U.S. so that the locations of nuclear explosions can be quickly transmitted before expected communications failures. The alarms normally display green, but display yellow due to operational issues unrelated to a nuclear explosion, and red in the event of a nuclear explosion. During a massive commercial power failure across the Northeast in November 1965, two alarms in different cities display red rather than yellow, announcing a nuclear attack. The Command Center of the Office of Emergency Planning goes on full alert until the power failure is identified.

    December 5, 1965—Plane falls off aircraft carrier
    American plane over the Pacific Ocean, Severity: 3
    A bomber carrying a nuclear weapon rolls off the deck of the U.S.S. Ticonderoga into the ocean. Pilot, plane, and weapon are never found.

    January 17, 1966—Plane collision spews radioactive material
    American plane in Spain, Severity: 4
    A B-52 bomber collides with a plane refueling it mid-air, while carrying four nuclear weapons each more powerful than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Two bombs are recovered intact, while the conventional explosives in the other two detonate, spewing radiation into the surrounding countryside of Palomares, Spain. Seven crew members are killed in the crash, and American military crew brought in to clean up after the crash show high rates of radiation-related illnesses today. Spanish people from the area also contracted cancer and other illnesses at higher rates, and sections of Palomares remain highly radioactive today.

    May 23, 1967—Communications failure suggests nuclear attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    Multiple early warning radar sites around the world go offline, leading the U.S. to again fear that the Soviets have disabled American radar in the first stage of a nuclear attack. Nuclear bombers prepare to take flight until it is determined that a solar flare knocked out the radar systems.

    January 21, 1968—Plane crash spews radioactive material
    American base in Greenland, Severity: 4
    An American B-52 bomber carrying four hydrogen bombs crashes near Thule Air Base in Greenland, after the crew abandons the plane due to a cabin fire. One crew member dies as the plane crashes into sea ice, causing all four bombs to detonate and radioactive material to be spewed into the ocean. Despite extensive damage, none of the four bombs detonate fully due to flaws in this particular bomb design. Had the plane hit Thule Air Base, American Strategic Air Command would likely have assumed attack and retaliated.

    April 11, 1968—Nuclear submarine sinks
    Soviet submarine in Pacific Ocean, Severity: 3
    A Soviet submarine carrying three nuclear-armed ballistic missiles and numerous nuclear torpedoes sinks about 750 miles north of Oahu. Part of the submarine was later salvaged by the CIA.

    November 15, 1969—American and Soviet submarines collide
    Barents Sea, Severity: 4
    American nuclear submarine Gato collides with a Soviet K-19 nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea, just off the northern coast of Russia, severely damaging the K-19.

    October 24-25, 1973—False alarm signals nuclear attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    With the Arab-Israeli war in force, the U.S. orders DEFCON 3 on October 24 as a warning signal to the U.S.S.R. to not intervene in the conflict. On October 25, while under DEFCON 3, mechanics repairing a plane at a base in Michigan accidentally activate the entire base alarm system, sending nuclear-armed B-52 bombers into preparing for takeoff. The alarm is repaired before any B-52s depart.

    August 1, 1974—Unfit president holds power to launch nuclear attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    In his last weeks in office during the Watergate Crisis, Nixon is depressed, drinking heavily, and extremely unstable. U.S. Secretary of Defense James R. Schlesinger instructs the Joint Chiefs of Staff to run any emergency order the president may enact through him first. In Nixon’s impaired state, he could easily have ordered a nuclear launch.

    November 9, 1979—False alarm nearly leads to nuclear strike
    United States, Severity: 4
    President Carter’s National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, receives a phone call at 3 a.m. by his military assistant adviser General William Odom, announcing that 2200 Soviet missiles have been launched at the United States. President Carter has less than ten minutes to order retaliation. Just as Brzezinski is about to call the president, Odom calls again to say it was a false alarm: someone mistakenly placed military exercise tapes in the operational missile detection computer system.

    March 15, 1980—Training exercise interpreted as attack
    United States, Severity: 2
    As part of a training exercise, the Soviet Union launches four submarine-based missiles. American early warning sensors suggest one of the missiles is actually headed towards the United States, and military officials convene to assess the threat before it naturally resolves itself.

    June 3 & 6, 1980—Faulty computer chip announces missile attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    A faulty chip in American military computers causes warning displays to announce that multiple Soviet missiles have been launched toward the United States. On both days, B-52 bomber crews and missiles are nearly sent out in retaliation, before personnel determine that the missile numbers the computers are displaying are illogical.

    September 18, 1980—Fire at a nuclear missile silo
    United States, Severity: 4
    A missile repairman doing routine maintenance on the Titan II ICBM silo in Damascus, Arkansas drops a wrench from the repair platform, which falls 70 feet and pierces the side of a missile, causing thousands of gallons of highly flammable rocket fuel to pour into the silo. The Titan II ICBM was the largest missile the U.S. ever built—about the size of a ten-story building, and mounted with the most powerful nuclear warhead the U.S. had ever put on a missile. The fuel explodes, killing an airman, and catapults the warhead out of the silo. Its safety mechanisms perform correctly, and the warhead does not detonate.

    September 26, 1983—Radar malfunction warns of missile attack
    Soviet Union, Severity: 3
    The Soviet Oko nuclear early warning system detects five nuclear-armed missiles launched from the U.S., heading toward Moscow. The Soviet soldier on duty, Stanislav Petrov, suspects an Oko malfunction rather than a real attack, and does not call for a retaliatory Soviet strike. Petrov is correct: Oko malfunctioned, and a nuclear attack is averted.

    November 2-11, 1983—NATO military exercise interpreted as attack
    Soviet Union, Severity: 4
    NATO enacts a ten-day exercise codenamed Able Archer 83 involving a hypothetical war with the Soviet bloc, which is set to end in the fictional launching of nuclear weapons. Moscow mistakes the exercise for real preparations, and believes NATO is about to conduct a surprise nuclear attack. Nuclear-armed Soviet bombers in East Germany and Poland are placed on alert, with pilots in the cockpit awaiting orders. The U.S.S.R’s 300 nuclear-armed ICBMS—its most powerful weapons—are stationed for immediate launch. Moscow contacts its Warsaw Pact allies, warning them that war is imminent and that Soviet ballistic submarines are assembling in firing positions off the coast of the U.S. The decisions of a couple of prudent individuals prevent conflict—namely a concerned KGB double agent who convinces the Reagan administration to reach out diplomatically to the U.S.S.R, and an American military intelligence officer who refuses to raise the American DEFCON alert level and further arouse Soviet suspicion. Tensions decrease, although Soviet forces remain on high alert until the exercise concludes on November 11.

    January 10, 1984—Malfunction causes nuclear-armed missile to almost launch
    United States, Severity: 3
    A nuclear-armed Minuteman III missile in a silo on the Nebraska-Wyoming border begins giving off false signals suggesting that it is about to launch. While the Air Force later insisted that multiple technical safeguards would have prevented the missile from launching, it still parked an armored car on top of the silo doors to keep the missile in place, raising concerns about these safeguards.

    August 19-21, 1991—Coup leaders confiscate nuclear briefcases
    Soviet Union, Severity: 4
    An attempted coup in the Soviet Union causes President Mikhail Gorbachev to lose possession of his nuclear briefcase and the launch authorization codes that it contains, after the case was confiscated by one of the coup leaders. The two other nuclear briefcases are also in possession of coup leaders until Gorbachev reclaims control.

    January 25, 1995—Scientific rocket launch interpreted as nuclear missile
    Russia, Severity: 4
    Russian early warning radar detects a scientific rocket launch off the coast of Norway (which the U.S. had informed Russia about beforehand), and mistakenly identifies it as an American submarine-launched ballistic missile. Russian nuclear forces jump to full alert, with President Boris Yeltsin retrieving the nuclear launch codes and preparing for a retaliatory launch. Russian satellites monitoring American missile fields prove that the missile is not headed for Russia, and a strike is called off.

    May-June, 1999—Conflict almost includes nuclear weapons
    India and Pakistan, Severity: 5
    The Kargil crisis is one of the few instances of direct confrontation between two nuclear-armed states, when India and Pakistan clashed over the disputed Kashmir region. Pakistani troops and militants are found in Indian territory, leading the Indian Air Force to bomb Pakistani bases in Kargil. The incident escalates until both sides threaten to use nuclear weapons. The crisis is temporarily defused by mediation from President Clinton.

    December 2001-October 2002—Conflict almost includes nuclear weapons
    Pakistan, Severity: 3
    Conflict over the Kashmir region flares up again, as President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan refuses to rule out first use of nuclear weapons as India had already done publicly. The conflict is resolved when U.S. Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage releases a pledge Musharraf made to the U.S. to seek negotiations with India.

    August 2006—Nuclear missile fuses accidentally shipped to Taiwan
    United States, Severity: 2
    The U.S. Defense Department mistakenly ships secret nuclear fuses for Minuteman III missiles to Taiwan, where the boxes sit unattended to for eighteen months, before Air Force officials acknowledge their error.

    August 29-30, 2007—Nuclear missiles accidentally loaded onto plane
    United States, Severity: 3
    By ignoring required protocol for checking for live weapons, six nuclear-armed cruise missiles are mistakenly loaded onto a B-52 bomber at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota. The plane sits on the tarmac all night, unguarded, then flies 1500 miles to a base in Louisiana where it sits unguarded for another nine hours until maintenance crews recognize the weapons are live. For a total of 36 hours, the Air Force did not realize that six nuclear weapons were missing.

    May 23, 2008—Fire in missile silo burns unnoticed
    United States, Severity: 4
    A fire breaks out in a silo in Wyoming containing a Minuteman III missile and burns until it runs out of fuel, only discovered five days later when maintenance crews are alerted to cable connectivity problems.

    October 23, 2010—Communications failure leads to lost contact with nuclear missiles
    United States, Severity: 2
    A launch control center at Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming loses contact with 50 Minuteman III ICBMs carrying nuclear warheads for 45 minutes. With the rockets off-line, the launch center would have been unable to detect or cancel any unauthorized launch attempts. This incident could have been caused—and could easily be recreated—by hackers from a rogue or terrorist group.

    July 28, 2012—Activists break into top-secret uranium production plant
    United States, Severity: 3
    Three activists, including an 84-year-old nun, break into the Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tennessee and splash human blood on a building in which weapons-grade uranium is processed. The trio roams undetected at the facility for over two hours, suggesting a troubling lack of security measures at one of the most dangerous facilities in the U.S.

    August 5, 2014—Nuclear power plant sabotaged
    Belgium, Severity: 4
    A still unidentified individual drains 65,000 liters of lubricant from a turbine used to produce electricity in the Belgian Doel 4 nuclear power plant. No penetration to the plant is detected, leading investigators to suspect this was an inside job. This event calls attention not only to Belgium’s poor security practices at its nuclear power plants—it did not arm its power plant guards until after the 2016 Brussels terrorist attacks—but also to the potential for nuclear terrorism. In 2012, two workers from the same Doel 4 plant left Belgium to fight for ISIS in Syria.

     

     

     

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