Nuclear Age Peace Foundation

Category: US Nuclear Weapons Policy

Does anybody know what time it is?

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The following article was published in the Santa Maria Times on January 28, 2026, and authored by Scott Fina, NAPF Board Member.

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As I was walking down the street one day

A man came up to me and asked me

What the time was that was on my watch

Yeah, and I said….

… Does anybody really know what time it is?

… Does anybody really care?

… You know, I can’t imagine why

… We’ve all got time enough to cry

– “Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?” by Chicago, 1969

Time can be a funny thing. It’s certainly complex.

According to Albert Einstein’s theorizing, the speed of time is variable, depending on someone’s relative motion.

The time of day or night can be different for two people in different places around the world. If it’s noon in California, it’s midnight in the United Arab Emirates.

Depending on peoples’ feelings or circumstances, time can seem to move too slow, or too fast.

For some, time can feel like a friend; for others, it can feel like an enemy.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists would strongly suggest we see time as such an enemy, at least when it comes to the Doomsday Clock.

The Doomsday Clock is an idea created in 1947 by Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and other scientists connected to the creation of the atomic bomb. The concept uses “the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet”.

On Jan. 27 the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it’s ever been as a warning of worldwide nuclear Armageddon.

Scientists made this calculation on the basis of ongoing modernization of nuclear weapons by the nuclear powers — especially the U.S and Russia — and the coinciding military conflicts and tensions around the world.

Astoundingly, relatively few people on our planet seem alarmed by, or even conscious of, the potential nuclear annihilation. And despite the hit song by Chicago, we really all won’t have time enough to cry if and when the nuclear bombs start flying.

But wait! There’s more — or possibly less — depending on what happens in a very short time.

Here I refer to the last standing nuclear treaty between the U.S. and Russia, known as “New START”.

The treaty is scheduled to expire on Feb. 5 of this week. The expiration of this treaty will be bad news for both the U.S. and Russia, and humanity itself, not to mention most of the rest of life as we know it on Earth.

Indeed, there is much at stake for the New START Treaty. According to the U.S. Department of State, under New START, by 2018, the U.S. and Russia each met (and have since maintained) a limit on deployed nuclear weapons and delivery systems.

These include a maximum of “700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments”.

The number of actual nuclear warheads deployed on these delivery systems are limited to 1,550.

New START also established several measures of “verification and transparency” to assure both countries comply with the agreed-to limits of the nuclear missiles and warheads.

They are mandated to “exchange data on the numbers, locations, and technical characteristics of weapons systems and facilities that are subject to the treaty and provide each other with regular notifications and updates.”

In simpler terms, both the U.S. and Russia have been letting each other know where their nukes are and how many are deployed. Moreover, New START allows onsite inspections by both nations.

Surprisingly, on Sept. 22, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly offered to extend New START for another year beyond its expiration if the U.S. would also do so.

So far, the Trump administration has not agreed to Putin’s offer.

Perhaps the Trump administration has been too busy to respond to Russia, being occupied with taking over Venezuela and preparing to conquer other sovereign nations, not to mention the federal military invasion of U.S. cities.

But admittedly, even if New START is extended, the threat of nuclear annihilation will go on. The U.S. and Russia can each wipe out humanity numerous times over with the limited number of nuclear warheads deployed under New START.

Still, having some bilateral treaty with Russia would be helpful.

Also, there is the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons that went into force in 2021, outlawing their use and possession by all nations.

According to the Arms Control Association, 99 countries have signed this treaty, 74 of which have ratified it. Unfortunately, no nuclear power has agreed to join the treaty, including the U.S. which is the nation that brought nuclear weapons into the world, and the only nation that has used them.

It will take only 30 minutes or less for the U.S. and Russia to launch and strike each other with nuclear-armed missiles. And again, there will never be enough time to cry if this is how the world ends.

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February 4, 2026
A Nuclear Just Transition: Breaking the Political Economy of U.S. Nuclear Entrenchment
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Article by David Shi

Introduction: Defining Nuclear Entrenchment

The American nuclear arsenal has been the central piece of defense policy for nearly eight decades. Yet, deterrence theory alone cannot fully explain this persistence of nuclear dominance, which endures as much from entrenched political and economic structures as from strategic necessity. It is, instead, a consequence of a broader political economy of nuclear entrenchment—a dynamic whereby strategic justifications, institutional momentum, spatial diffusion of rewards, and interdependence at the community level converge to maintain the arsenal. It is a process that must be reversed through a new strategy and redistribution of economic and social policy. Drawing from concepts in political economics and climate policy, this article is intended to provide a brief overview of the political economy issues surrounding U.S. nuclear entrenchment and provide possible pathways forward.

Strategic Thinking and Its Implications

The intellectual pillar of U.S. nuclear doctrine is deterrence: the assumption that a credible deterrent threat of retaliation will prevent adversaries from launching a first strike. This Cold War-era doctrine was employed to support a nuclear “triad” of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers.

Yet, deterrence is insufficient to account for the extent of U.S. modernization. New motives—China’s growing nuclear program, Russia’s modernization of its weaponry, and emerging technologies like cyberwarfare—have certainly propelled modernization. Strategy is half the answer, however. The political economy of U.S. nuclear policy creates greater policy lock-in than is needed.

The Political Economy of Entrenchment: Government and Institutional Levels

Path Dependence

Nuclear programs are self-reinforcing once begun. Investments in silo, submarines, and labs are sunk costs and create bureaucratic constituencies. Abandoning these programs risks both financial waste and political backlash, and change is therefore costly. That is why path dependency is responsible for policies from decades ago—such as a triad—still dominating today’s political agenda.

Geography and Congressional Politics

Nuclear weapons programs employ people in congressional districts and states by the hundreds. Sentinel ICBMs support Wyoming, North Dakota, and Montana societies; submarine construction supports Virginia and Connecticut shipyards. This diffusion across space guarantees bipartisan support in Congress, even from members who doubt the nuclear doctrine. Nuclear expenditure then disguises itself under the cover of national defense as an unofficial regional development agenda by way of “militarized Keynesianism”

In thinking of members of Congress as rational “single-minded seekers of reelection,” it becomes clear why these programs persist: they provide jobs, contracts, and local prestige that representatives can point to as tangible benefits for constituents. Once provided, on the other hand, the political backlash is much more likely to be felt, thus pushing the U.S. towards dangerous modernization spending.

Budgetary Myopia

Whereas stockpile modernization is a negligible share of total defense spending, its impact is multiplied by exploding overall military budgets. Nuclear spending is discretionary and classified, and asymmetrical information enables the nuclear complex to appropriate funds with little transparency and therefore weaker coalitions of opposition. This process, in turn, further entrenches nuclear weapons and squeezes out social programs.

Human Capital Lock-In: Worker and Community Levels

The nuclear complex is not only machines and missiles but also people. National Laboratories, such as Los Alamos and Livermore, and missile bases across the Great Plains, rely on highly specialized workers whose expertise is tailored specifically to nuclear systems. These skills are not easily transferable. For communities and local economies that have grown around these facilities, dependence on federal contracts makes alternatives difficult.

This creates a classic case of concentrated benefits and diffuse costs: communities with direct economic stakes in nuclear programs fiercely defend them and make their positions known to their political representatives, while the broader population—who ultimately pay through taxes—remain disengaged or uninformed.

The Social Opportunity Costs of U.S. Nuclear Modernization

Over the next 30 years, the U.S. is currently projected to spend upwards of $1.7 trillion on nuclear modernization, including upgrading warheads, delivery systems, and supporting nuclear infrastructure. While modernization makes us minimally “safer” it also results in a stark tradeoff when considering the social policy benefits that could have been funded:

Education
- The annual cost of modernization (roughly $50–60 billion per year) could fully fund universal pre-K for all 3- and 4-year-olds in the United States.
- Redirecting just one year of modernization spending could pay for doubling Pell Grants, directly benefiting millions of low-income college students.
Healthcare
- The 10-year cost of modernization far exceeds the projected cost of expanding Medicaid to cover every uninsured American.
- Roughly $10 billion (Same cost as a single new nuclear submarine) could finance community health centers serving 20 million additional patients annually.
Housing and Poverty Reduction
- Redirecting a decade of nuclear modernization could virtually eliminate homelessness in the U.S., given estimates that ending chronic homelessness would require about $10 billion annually.
- $100 billion (two years of nuclear spending) could lift millions of children out of poverty if invested in Child Tax Credit expansions.
From Climate to Nuclear: Constructing an Equitable Transition

In climate politics, the concept of the “just transition” recognizes that decarbonization is bound to fail unless societies and workforces reliant upon fossil fuels are uplifted and empowered. Likewise, nuclear disarmament will not succeed without a substitute source of livelihood to offer. Nuclear establishment dismantlement will dismantle entrenched regional economies and elite networks, provoking resistance. Indeed, examples from around the world, such as France’s Yellow Vest Protests in 2018, show the political backlash that erupts when governments attempt to phase out entrenched sectors without providing adequate compensation or alternatives.

In this way, greater investments in social protection can help transition the U.S. into a compensatory state, supporting the communities that financially depend on nuclear modernization and helping the transition toward disarmament. A just nuclear transition would involve investment in worker guarantees, retraining of workers laid off from nuclear jobs, and social protection. There are lessons to learn from elsewhere in the world: Indonesia’s reform of fuel subsidies, for example, redirected tens of billions of dollars toward social programs and infrastructure. By pairing subsidy cuts with targeted cash transfers, the government mitigated political backlash and maintained stability, offering lessons for how economic transitions can be managed fairly.” Nuclear retrenchment can similarly accompany compensation and reskilling policy to ensure that communities are not abandoned.

Policy Directions Forward and Conclusion

Disarmament must come to be redefined as not just a requirement of security but also a product of the U.S.’s distinct political economy. To break this cycle of wasteful nuclear modernization that pushes the world closer and closer to nuclear annihilation, new coalitions must arise, bringing together peace activism alongside labor, climate justice, and social policy campaigns. Along with compensatory social investment, policymakers can defeat the economic as well as political origins of nuclear lock-in. Ultimately, a nuclear just transition envisions disarmament not as a loss, but as a redistribution: away from entrenched defense interests and toward communities, workers, and social policies that build genuine security.

needs to be defined

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September 10, 2025
31st Annual Sadako Peace Day

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In remembrance of 80 years since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation hosted its 31st Annual Sadako Peace Day on August 6, 2025 in the Sadako Peace Garden at La Casa de Maria in Santa Barbara.

The event opened with an invocation of nature by Bob Sedivy on the shakuhachi, a five-holed vertical flute of Japan. Kate Jang, an intern at NAPF, then formally greeted the audience as Master of Ceremonies. Sherry Purcell welcomed the audience to the magnificent La Casa de Maria and spoke on behalf of the Immaculate Heart Community, a decades-long partner of NAPF. Perie Longo, as Chair of the NAPF Poetry Committee, read “Hang on to Hope,” an original poem by David Krieger, the late Co-Founder and President Emeritus of NAPF. Afterwards, Dr. Jimmy Hara recounted the life of Sadako, emphasizing the resilience and desire for peace ingrained in her story. Nancy Martin hosted the Two Crane Ceremony, where audience members were invited to take two paper cranes – one for remembrance, and one to send peace out into the world. The program continued with Dr. Jordan A. Y Smith’s original poem “When Fish Play Baseball: Koi Pond in the Heart of the Bomb.” Erica Kokor & Valeriya Zherebtsova, two NAPF interns, next spoke about why they care about nuclear disarmament. Afterwards, George Yatchisin, Santa Barbara Poet Laureate 2025-27, shared his original poem “In Praise of the Peace Pigeon.” As the final speaker of the evening, Dr. Ivana Nikolić Hughes spoke about how the world needs to move forward 80 years after the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. She also shared her own original poem, “The Hills of Nagasaki,” written upon her visit to Nagasaki in 2024. In a full circle moment, Bob Sedivy closed the event by performing “Tsuibo No Kyoku” on the shakuhachi.

Thank you to everyone who attended this wonderful evening filled with community, as well as inspiring poetry, music, and remarks. We are grateful to all of our program participants and to the Immaculate Heart Community for their partnership and maintenance of the Sadako Peace Garden at La Casa de Maria.

Please see the YouTube video below for the recording of the event.

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Photos, including by Howard Miller

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August 11, 2025
Multiregional Perspectives on the Israel and Iran Conflict and Preventing Nuclear Escalation
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Multiregional Perspectives on the Israel–Iran Conflict and Preventing Nuclear Escalation
Hosted by the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and Reverse the Trend – July 31, 2025

On 31 July 2025, the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF) and the SESA chapter of its youth initiative, Reverse The Trend (RTT SESA), hosted a virtual event titled “Multiregional Perspectives on the Israel-Iran Conflict and Preventing Nuclear Escalation”, featuring an urgent discussion on avoiding nuclear escalation and the geopolitical implications of the Twelve-Day War. This event, moderated by RTT Youth Adviser Muhammad Ibraheem Waraich, highlighted expert and academic perspectives across the globe on this urgent issue. Speakers included Sharon Dolev, Executive Director of the Middle East Treaty Organization (METO); Dr. Emad Kiyaei, Director of METO; Commodore Uday Bhaskar, Director of the Society for Policy Studies (SPS); Dr. Salma Malik, Associate Professor at Quaid-i-Azam University; and Dr. Ivana Nikolić Hughes, President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and Senior Lecturer at Columbia University.

Sharon Dolev of METO began by recounting civil society involvement in Israel-Iran relations in 2012. She said, “It was civil society that kept pushing for talks—don’t bomb, talk.” Out of this push came the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Dolev described as an agreement that worked, putting Iran under “the most comprehensive safeguards that any state agreed to”.

Dolev critiqued the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and further explained the consequences. She explained, “The biggest injury was diplomacy. When the U.S. breaks a working agreement, any future agreement will be harder to achieve and won’t be trusted. Dolev closed by reaffirming that “diplomacy is still the only way to secure our future. It is our job to push and continue to push diplomats and policymakers to sustain and respect these processes.”

Emad Kiyaei of METO opened his remarks by situating the Israel–Iran conflict within a broader “shadow Cold War,” one marked by ongoing cyberattacks, assassinations, sanctions, and diplomatic isolation, despite the formal end of hostilities. Kiyaei warned that this erosion of diplomacy and conventions meant to contain conflict has created a “Wild, Wild West,” where power is concentrated in the hands of a few leaders making “life-and-death decisions for millions and millions”.

In this context, Kiyaei stressed that the danger of nuclear weapon use is not confined to states like the US and Russia. Even a conflict between other nuclear-armed states, such as India and Pakistan, could trigger a humanitarian and climate catastrophe that kills billions due to the sheer destructive force of nuclear weapons. Kiyaei emphasized that humanity has the power to stop this “mass hostage-taking by the nine governments who possess nuclear weapons”, before calling for civil society to act and “provide policy, advice, and solutions.”

Commodore Uday Bhaskar followed, stating that “there has been a steady erosion of what was once seen as the nuclear taboo”. Citing Russia’s veiled nuclear threats in the Ukraine conflict and the continuation of North Korean missile tests, Bhaskar warned that international norms are weakening and that nuclear weapons have entered mainstream strategy. “There are no guard rails just now, as far as the nuclear capability is concerned,” said Bhaskar.

To meet the challenges of nuclear escalation, Bhaskar stressed, “Civil society must be galvanized. And how we do it, of course, is the matter of detail”. Concluding, Bhaskar expressed hope in the ability of younger generations to meet this rising challenge, reemphasizing, “as I said, our generation failed.”

Similarly, Salma Malik warned that the normalization of nuclear weapons usage has created a dangerous situation for all countries, citing India and Pakistan as an example where states flirt with tactical nuclear thresholds. Malik cautioned, “This is not how you play in the nuclear playbook. You must maintain a deterrence.” Malik criticized the shift from deterrence to compellence, where states force adversaries to comply through coercion. Malik characterized this as “changing the entire norms and provoking our adversaries into taking up new actions”.

Malik continued by warning that Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites set a dangerous precedent: “Any country that wants to carry out similar strikes. Would find an endorsement from the bigger countries of the world,” Malik explained. She rejected the growing trend of surgical strikes on strategic assets, instead calling for a greater embrace of diplomacy. Malik concluded, “We really need to look for the common good of the people. We don’t need to endorse people who are willfully condemning the world to genocide.”

Dr. Ivana Nikolić Hughes of NAPF stressed the devastating nature of nuclear weapons and warned that the idea of a “limited” nuclear war is misleading. Citing scientific modeling of nuclear winter, Hughes emphasized that even a regional nuclear conflict would lead to catastrophic drops in global temperatures. “A regional conflict between India and Pakistan,” Hughes warned, “could trigger global agricultural collapse.

Hughes continued by criticizing the prevailing myth of safety created by deterrence frameworks, saying, “We’ve gotten lucky. We can’t get lucky forever”. She emphasized that the continued existence of these weapons is not a sign of strength but a deep moral failing: “Nuclear weapons need to become a symbol of shame. Governments should be ashamed of their professed commitment to use these weapons.” Concluding, Hughes called for greater diplomatic investment and public activism, noting that “civil society needs to continue to push for diplomacy, both for peace and disarmament. They go hand in hand, and they can be mutually reinforcing.”

Together, the speakers underscored that the erosion of nuclear norms, the collapse of key diplomatic agreements, and the growing normalization of nuclear threats have pushed the world into a far more dangerous and unstable era. They stressed that preventing further escalation requires rejecting coercion and military shortcuts and reinvesting in diplomacy, dialogue, and trust-building. The discussion closed with a clear call to action for civil society, youth activists, and governments, framing disarmament as an urgent necessity for human survival.

Panelists:
- Commodore Uday Bhaskar – Director, Society for Policy Studies (SPS)
- Dr. Emad Kiyaei – Director, Middle East Treaty Organization (METO)
- Sharon Dolev – Executive Director, Middle East Treaty Organization (METO)
- Dr. Salma Malik – Associate Professor, Quaid-i-Azam University
- Dr. Ivana Nikolić Hughes – President, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF)
Moderator:
Muhammad Ibraheem Warraich – Advisor, Reverse the Trend

Organized by the Southeast and South Asia Chapter of Reverse the Trend, with support from youth leaders and interns of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

Watch the full discussion in the video below:

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August 4, 2025
2025 Day on Capitol Hill

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In July 2025, the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF) team—Christian Ciobanu (Director of Policy and Advocacy), Kenneth Chiu (Communications and Media Coordinator), and interns Tyler Barrett, David Shi, and Anderson Peck—visited Capitol Hill to meet with Congressional offices and advocate for nuclear disarmament and a shift in U.S. nuclear policy.

Our delegation met with staff from the offices of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senator Chris Murphy, Senator Ed Markey, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Representative Ed Case, Representative Ted Lieu, and Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton. In these discussions, we emphasized the humanitarian and environmental consequences of nuclear weapons, the importance of U.S. engagement with the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), and the urgent need to redirect nuclear weapons funding toward pressing global challenges such as climate resilience and justice for impacted communities.

The team specifically advocated for H.R. 2775, introduced by Delegate Norton (D-DC), which urges the U.S. to sign and ratify the TPNW and reallocate nuclear weapons spending to climate action. We also called for a formal U.S. apology for its role in nuclear testing in Kiribati, highlighting the need for accountability and reparative justice.

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July 23, 2025
Team NAPF at DC Lobbying Days

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On May 19-22, members of the NAPF team—comprising our Director of Policy and Advocacy, Christian Ciobanu; our Communications and Media Coordinator, Kenneth Chiu; and our Government, Development, and Outreach Coordinator, Anastasia Shakhidzhanova—visited Capitol Hill as part of the Alliance for Nuclear Accountability (ANA) coalition to engage with Congressional staff on nuclear disarmament.

During our visit, we lobbied for Bill H.R. 2775 by Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC), which advocates for the US to sign and ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and to redirect nuclear weapons funding toward climate change mitigation and adaptation. We also discussed broader nuclear disarmament issues, stressing the importance of nuclear abolition and updating staff on the TPNW’s current status and the ongoing efforts to universalize and implement the treaty. In particular, we highlighted Kiribati and Kazakhstan’s ongoing efforts under Articles 6 and 7 of the TPNW to establish an international trust fund for communities affected by nuclear testing. Finally, we invited our representatives to the Parliamentarian Conference at the Third Meeting of States Parties (3MSP) to the TPNW, scheduled for March 3, 2025, in New York City. The full 3MSP conference will run from March 3-7, 2025.

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Left to Right: Christian Ciobanu, Steven Park (Office of Representative Adam Schiff, CA-30), Anastasia Shakhidzhanova, Kenneth Chiu.

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Dinner with our friends Corinne and Marcina from the Marshallese Educational Initiative (MEI)!

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Team NAPF met with Bryce Barros, staff member for Senator Markey (MA), to discuss disarmament initiatives and legislation at Capitol Hill.

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We attended ANA workshops on lobbying efforts on nuclear waste cleanup and nonproliferation.

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ANA Training Day

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Corinne and Marcina, MEI, at the Alliance for Nuclear Accountability Awards Reception.

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DC Days Gallery

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Team NAPF outside of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s (MA) office.

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Kenneth with colleagues from ANA coalition outside Senator Jeff Merkley’s (OR) office.

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Anastasia at the Office of Senator Laphonza Butler (CA).

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May 29, 2024
All the Beautiful Things Will Be Gone

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Examining the Contradictions Between the American Public’s Perception of Nuclear War and the Real Possibility of Its Occurrence

If a Trident D-5 nuclear warhead is detonated in a city today, a two-kilometer-wide fireball will instantly evaporate everything in its midst, followed by a shockwave that will flatten nearly everything in a one-mile radius and break windows and cause other type of damage up to ten kilometers away. The resulting air vacuum left in the shockwave’s wake would have the potential to start countless secondary fires all throughout the blast radius, spreading far beyond the initial zone. In the intervening hours, people within the affected area would suffer lethal radiation doses and third-degree burns.

The devastating impact of nuclear weapons has been known to the American public and the world at large ever since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But how do people in the US actually feel about US nuclear policies? Has public opinion shifted since the end of the Cold War? Do Americans feel safe in a nuclear armed world? And perhaps the most pertinent question of all: is the general public even aware of the very real possibility of nuclear war, and how close we have come to nuclear armageddon in the past?

American sentiment regarding nuclear weapons has actually been remarkably clear and consistent ever since the end of the Second World War; according to a report published by the Steering Committee for the Symposium on the Medical Implications of Nuclear War, at the height of the nuclear arms race in 1986, American’s beliefs “differ(ed) surprisingly little across age, gender, race, education, income, and political ideology.” Americans reacted with a mix of fear and general horror when asked to imagine a nuclear war or a post nuclear world. According to several surveys conducted in 1983, American people thought that there would be “nobody left…all the beautiful things would be gone. It would destroy…everyone in the world.” One respondent is quoted as saying “I hope I die with everyone else.”

So, if Americans’ emotions are accurate to the gravity of a potential nuclear war, why do they take so little political action to change America’s nuclear policy? More recent surveys suggest that American people generally approve of the US nuclear stockpile, with a clear majority feeling that nuclear weapons help to keep the country safe. A plurality of respondents feel that they are familiar with the effects of nuclear weapons, and a third say that they are familiar with current US nuclear policy. Modern day Americans approve of the current US nuclear policy by a five to one ratio.

So, what explains the contradiction between what Americans feel about nuclear war, and what Americans think about the US’s stockpile of nuclear weapons? According to the most recent data, Americans generally regard nuclear war as a “hypothetical possibility”, and a majority of Americans believe that nuclear weapons are “very effective” at preventing conflict between the US and other nations. Essentially, Americans feel that a nuclear war would be a horrible outcome for all involved, but don’t regard the possibility of it occurring as very likely. Furthermore, they believe that the more nuclear weapons we have, the less likely a nuclear war is to start.

However, what most Americans don’t realize is the extensive record of brushes with nuclear armageddon that the world has managed to avoid, more through circumstance and luck than any sort of well formulated system for avoiding nuclear conflict. Between 1979 and 1980, there were several false alarm incidents at NORAD, the combined American Canadian headquarters for nuclear defense. Initially, top officials believed they were receiving a warning about an incoming Soviet strike, until it was discovered that it was in fact a computer error. It turned out to be the result of a single faulty computer chip.

In the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, there was a dramatic incident on a Soviet submarine. Submarine B-59 surfaced to recharge its batteries in international waters, where they were harassed by American anti-submarine naval forces. US forces were attempting to halt the submarine and force the Russians to identify themselves. The captain, believing that a war with the United States had already kicked off, gave an emergency order to dive and use the submarine’s nuclear torpedo against American forces, an act which, at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, may well have started a nuclear apocalypse. What stopped this from occurring? The captain couldn’t get down the stairs to the command bridge fast enough, and the second in command, Vasily Arkhipov, managed to calm him down and relay that the Americans were communicating with them, not attacking.

Other things that have been temporarily mistaken for nuclear attacks and have almost resulted in the launch of nuclear weapons due to faulty equipment or human error include a scientific research rocket, a bear, and a flock of geese. In the words of Soviet general Vladimir Belous, the global situation remains such that “A fateful accident could plunge the world into the chaos of a thermonuclear catastrophe, contrary to political leaders’ wishes.”

As the historical record shows, the system of MAD, or mutually assured destruction, appears to work as a deterrent for avoiding intentional nuclear war, but there have been dozens of times we came too close to unintentional nuclear war in the United States alone. Surely, the fate of the human race should not be left to chance, again and again? In the past, humanity got lucky, but we only need to be unlucky one time for human civilization to collapse and for the entire planet to be plunged into nuclear winter. All it takes is one more faulty computer part or a panicked moment of human error, and all the beautiful things will be gone.

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May 22, 2024
Saving the US from Nuclear Weapons

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Published in Transcend Media Service on February 19, 2024.

Why the United States Should Lead the World on Nuclear Disarmament All the Way to a World Free of Nuclear Weapons

For decades, Americans have been told that nuclear weapons ended World War II and that they have kept us safe ever since. This narrative ignores historical evidence suggesting that Japan was already close to surrendering and that nuclear weapon attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki marked the beginning of the Cold War, rather than end of the hot one. This narrative also ignores the Cuban Missile Crisis, which in 1962 brought us to the brink of nuclear war that would have destroyed human civilization as we know it and possibly all of life on the planet. At that time, the United States and the Soviet Union had more than 30,000 nuclear warheads, most of which were vastly more powerful than the atomic bombs used in 1945. Had the two countries used just the weapons that were ready to launch – about 4,000 of them – estimates of deaths range from hundreds of millions of people to over a billion people. Nuclear winter, which we didn’t know about until a couple of decades later, would have ensued, further leading to starvation of many more around the planet, with potential planetary life-ending consequences. The world our ancestors survived in for thousands of generations would have been gone, irreversibly so.

But it wasn’t just the Cuban Missile Crisis. There were accidental drops of nuclear bombs over Canada in 1950, South Carolina in 1958, and North Carolina in 1961; a US and Soviet plane crash over Greenland in 1968 and a submarine crash in the Barents Sea in 1969; fires in missile silos in Arkansas in 1980 and in Wyoming in 2008, and false alarms in 1979 and 1983, all of which could have led to nuclear weapon use and possibly even nuclear war. The list goes on and on. Nuclear weapons do not keep us safe, they put us at unimaginable risk. Nuclear deterrence is simply an illusion of safety.

With more than 12,000 warheads in our world today, the possibility of accidental use of a nuclear weapon that leads to widespread nuclear war continues to loom large. But it’s not just accidental use that experts are worried about. The possibility of a miscalculation – a leader deciding to use a nuclear weapon because they perceive to be under attack when they are not – is arguably even more likely. There is also always the unhinged leader, or one who may be drunk, or one who may be losing their mental acuity due to age or for other reasons. In the United States, nuclear weapon use authorization is in the hands of the President and the President only. That is quite simply a terrifying prospect even when we might have a reasonable leader in power.

The only way that the United States could be not just beaten, but destroyed in a war on its own soil, is if nuclear weapons are used to attack us. Such a prospect makes us totally and completely vulnerable and not just to Russia and China. We are also in danger from North Korea, which has an estimated 30 nuclear warheads that can reach every corner of the United States, enough to destroy our nation. The question of whether or not North Korea would also be destroyed in the course of such a war is irrelevant and would be of little comfort to the survivors. How do you spend on the order of a trillion dollars on the military every year (more than the next ten countries combined) and end up being vulnerable to a country that ranks 56^th in population and among the bottom 10% of states in GDP per capita?

If a major responsibility of a government is to keep its people safe and secure, then a succession of US governments since 1945 has not done a very good job. This needs to change. But failure in the past does not mean we have to keep failing. There are steps we can take now to ensure that our nation does not go the way of empires of the past. Because this time, we could also take humanity along with us.

The following is a good start for how to get back on track.

First, we need to address the actual and potential conflicts that could lead to nuclear war, including Ukraine, Gaza, and Taiwan. The way to address them is to seek a common ground with the parties that ends or prevents the killing and starts the healing. In the case of Ukraine, we need to restore our promise not to expand NATO to Ukraine and encourage Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table before it’s too late for them and for us. In the case of Gaza, we need to demand, like Reagan did of Begin, that Israel stop killing women and children by the thousands and agree to pursue a permanent solution to the conflict that assures Palestinian sovereignty and self-determination. US funding to perpetuate or fuel war and violence must end. And when it comes to Taiwan, we need to not turn Taiwan into another Ukraine, but rather push for a dialogue that sets the stage for a peaceful conclusion to the decades-long question of Taiwan’s status, agreeable to both China and Taiwan.

As President Kennedy stated in his American University Commencement Address in 1963, we need “not merely peace for Americans, but peace for all men and women.” This should be our goal for all regions of the world. It is most critical for conflicts that can result in the end of humanity as we know it.

Once peace and trust have been restored in current and potential conflicts involving nuclear weapon possessors, we need to get to the negotiating table ourselves, starting with Russia. We need to reinstate the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which we left in 2002, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which we withdrew from in 2019. Next, we need to get our missile bases out of Romania and Poland and pursue a new agreement with Russia to end all nuclear sharing arrangements. This would involve getting US nuclear bombs out of Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey (and not putting them in the United Kingdom) and Russia removing theirs from Belarus. Finally, we need to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and call all of the nuclear weapon possessors to the table to finally abolish and eliminate nuclear weapons. The last task is the most difficult, but good leaders have done difficult things before and we can do it again. The fate of the world hangs in the balance.

This plan puts the selfish interests of the US first and completely ignores the moral and ethical reasons as to why we should lead the world in nuclear disarmament. Those include the fact that we were the first country to develop nuclear weapons, the only one to ever use them in military attacks on cities full of children and other civilians, and that we wrote the script for the nuclear testing era, which has devastated people around the planet, including our own citizens and those we were meant to protect. But let’s leave those arguments to the peaceniks and focus on self-preservation, morality be damned.

Once we do all of this, we can turn to the ongoing global threats of climate change, emerging infectious diseases, AI, etc., as well as our own challenges at home, like income inequality, lack of universal health care, gun regulation, immigration, and more. That’s the other side of the nuclear weapons coin – the enormous amount of spending on these omnicidal weapons means that we don’t have money for addressing other existential threats, nor adequate social spending.

US leadership on nuclear disarmament is sorely needed to sustain our country and to keep the world whole.

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February 21, 2024
“Oppenheimer’s Legacy” at Columbia University

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On October 25, 2023, Dr. Ivana Hughes, NAPF President and Senior Lecturer at Columbia University, joined other Columbia Professors Carol Gluck (History), Heather Radke (School of the Arts and Radiolab), and Michael Gerrard (Law School), to discuss questions of ethics in science, history, storytelling, and energy policy through the lens of the film Oppenheimer.

The Moral Compass

Ivana introduced the profound ethical and moral challenges that surround nuclear weapons, highlighting I.I. Rabi’s pivotal role in Oppenheimer (and in reality!) in opposing them from even before their development. Rabi, a figure sometimes overshadowed in the annals of history, emerged as a steadfast critic of nuclear weapons from the earliest days of the Manhattan Project. During their formative years, Rabi and J. Robert Oppenheimer, as young students students in Europe, developed a deep friendship that would last to the end of Robert’s life. Rabi’s powerful declaration, “I don’t want three hundred years of physics to culminate in the making of a bomb,” encapsulates the moral complexity inherent in nuclear technology. Ivana spoke of three findings that would come long after Rabi called hydrogen bombs “weapons of genocide,” namely disproportionate effects of radiation on women and girls (based on data on survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki), long-term radiological contamination in former nuclear testing stites (Marshall Island), and nuclear winter.

The Nuclear Winter and the Global Impact

The ominous concept of a nuclear winter, as examined by many experts, casts a shadow over any discussion of nuclear warfare. Scientists have long warned of the catastrophic global consequences of a nuclear conflict, including large fires and the abundant release of soot, which would engulf the atmosphere, causing dramatic drops in global temperatures and drastic reductions in food availability worldwide. This stark potential underscores the immediate need to address the nuclear threat through international agreements such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

Interpreting the Nuclear Narrative: Contrasting Perspectives on Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Carol Gluck, Professor of History, explained the intricate narratives surrounding the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, shedding light on the disparities in interpretation. In the Japanese narrative, these bombings are not depicted as the conclusive end of the war but as the dawn of an era of peace. In stark contrast, the American narrative often portrays the atomic bombs as causing the end of the war and saving American lives. This disparity underscores the complexity of public attitudes toward nuclear weapons, providing insight into the many historical interpretations of a pivotal event.

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Ivana Hughes (NAPF and Columbia) explores the relationship between the development of nuclear weapons and ethics in Oppenheimer.

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Carol Gluck (Columbia) contrasts the American and Japanese narratives of the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

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Navigating Complex Narratives: Challenges in Storytelling

Heather E. Radke, Adjunct Professor in the School of the Arts and Editor at Radiolab, drew attention to the challenges of portraying stories with unsettling endings. She underscored that depicting images of atrocities may not necessarily induce change or render audiences more receptive to complex issues. Radke highlighted the intricate balance between truth and entertainment when conveying stories of challenging subjects. The task of retaining the audience’s attention while respecting the perspectives of activists and those most affected by issues, such as nuclear weapons, is a challenging one.

Challenges to Nuclear Energy

Michael Gerrard, Professor of Environmental and Energy Law, explored the ethical and environmental aspects of nuclear energy and its role in addressing another existential threat, that of climate change. He drew attention to the world’s existing nuclear plants, many of which are nearing retirement, and the potential adoption of new nuclear technologies. One significant concern raised by Gerrard is the management of nuclear waste, a critical challenge in the ongoing use of nuclear energy. The establishment of suitable storage facilities for this waste poses notable political hurdles. Furthermore, Gerrard cautioned about the security risks associated with outdoor storage of nuclear waste, as it could become a vulnerable target for potential security breaches and environmental damages. His extensive legal experience, including involvement in nuclear waste cases and work with the Republic of the Marshall Islands, underscores the ongoing concerns associated with nuclear energy and waste management.

The Role of the Individual and Public Perception

One of the key questions surrounding nuclear technology is the role of the individual in shaping the narrative. The public’s relationship with nuclear issues has often been characterized by a sense of powerlessness. Nuclear technology has been shrouded in secrecy and government control, making it difficult for individuals to challenge the prevailing narratives. How do we empower the public to understand the magnitude of the nuclear challenge and care about it?

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Panel at Columbia Unviersity, organized and moderated by Anelise Chen (Columbia School of Arts) and Lynnette Widder (Columbia School of Professional Studies)

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Heather Radke (Columbia and Radiolab) addresses the relationship between truth and entertainment in storytelling.

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Michael Gerrard (Columbia) addresses the question of nuclear energy technology.

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Upcoming Events

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November 2, 2023
“Confronting Our Nuclear Threat” at Tufts University

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On September 21, 2023, Dr. Ivana Hughes, NAPF President, joined Rachel Bronson (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) and Dr. Jim Walsh (MIT) to discuss the dangers of the nuclear threat at Tufts University.

Precedence for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Dr. Hughes stressed the importance of the global ratification of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) by pointing to past international bans on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) as a viable precedent. She shared, “The countries leading the efforts to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) recognize the danger of nuclear weapons…They also recognize we have successfully banned other WMDs, such as chemical weapons.” Referring to the success of the Chemical Weapons Convention (1993), Dr. Hughes noted that the U.S. Department of Defense destroyed 90% of their original chemical weapons stockpile by January, with the remainder destroyed by July 7, 2023.

90 Seconds to Midnight

The panel also addressed aspects of the nuclear threat, notably Rachel Bronson’s observation of the Doomsday Clock, currently set at 90 seconds to midnight. With the ongoing Ukraine War, Bronson voiced concerns about the world being closer than ever to global catastrophe. She underscored the dangers of nuclear escalation and the increasing reliance of states on nuclear weapons for security. Dr. Walsh discussed the certainty of a nuclear winter if nuclear weapons were ever deployed, regardless of whether they were strategic (like intercontinental ballistic missiles or submarine-launched ballistic missiles) or non-strategic (shorter-range and lower-yield). In the event of a nuclear conflict, Dr. Hughes pointed out that even with a third of the world’s nuclear arsenal in play, most of the global population would suffer from immediate and long-term radiation effects. She emphasized the catastrophic impact of nuclear war on the climate, including a drop in global temperatures by up to 10-15 °C (18-27 °F), leading to widespread crop failures and ultimately, famine.

Public Discourse on Nuclear

Dr. Walsh shared an inspiring vision for global youth in their quest for a world without nuclear weapons. With the recent release of “Oppenheimer” (2023) by filmmaker Christopher Nolan, he hopes to rekindle public discourse on the nuclear issue. Dr. Walsh reminded us that not too long ago, during the Cold War of the second half of the 20th century, the world lived in constant fear of nuclear attacks until the dissolution of the Soviet Union. He noted that the public has become too comfortable with the promises of nuclear deterrence and called upon the next generation to remind the world of the horrors of nuclear weapons and their ultimate obsolescence as tools for peace. The message is clear: nuclear weapons should never be used, under any circumstances.

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Talia Wilcox (Tufts University sophomore who organized the event on behalf Women in International Relations) and Ivana Hughes and Kenneth Chiu (NAPF)

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Panel at Tufts, with Talia Wilcox moderating, Jim Walsh and Ivana Hughes, and Rachel Bronson joining virtually.

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Upcoming Events

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October 3, 2023