Category: Nuclear Threat

  • January: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    January 1, 1947 – President Harry Truman, who ordered the U.S. Army Air Force to drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki 17 months previously, signed legislation on this date transferring the nation’s supply of nuclear bombs and production facilities to a new civilian agency – the Atomic Energy Commission headed by David Lilienthal.  The idea for the AEC came from Manhattan Project scientists, engineers, and nuclear physicists who had lobbied Congress to take the control of nuclear weapons away from Pentagon commanders.  Comments:  Unfortunately, another critical idea which would have internationalized the development and possession of nuclear weapons, the Baruch Plan, did not materialize in the postwar world.  Despite the valuable precedent of civilian control of nuclear weapons, the Nuclear Club members today continue to reject calls to dramatically reduce and eliminate these doomsday devices as an affront to their national sovereignty and ironically they argue that such moves will actually increase the risk of war.  Meanwhile a growing majority of global citizenry vehemently disagree with these assertions and continue to push for a world without nuclear weapons.  Perhaps Nobel Peace Prize winner and former Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, said it best, “It is my firm belief that the infinite and uncontrollable fury of nuclear weapons should never be held in the hands of any mere mortal ever again, for any reason.” (Source:  Craig Nelson. “The Age of Radiance.” New York:  Simon & Schuster, 2014, p. 229.)

    January 3, 1976 – As part of the Operation Anvil series of 19 underground nuclear test blasts at the Nevada Test Site, a test designated Muenster was conducted on this date at the bottom of a nearly mile deep shaft (4,759 feet).  This “Intermediate” magnitude test had an estimated yield of 160 kilotons, more than ten times as powerful as the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.  Comments:  Although underground nuclear tests, mandated by the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty, were obviously not as harmful as earlier atmospheric tests, contamination of underground water and mineral resources was a long-term risk as well as the possibility of the accidental venting of radioactive elements into the atmosphere which occurred on Dec.18, 1970 during the Baneberry ten kiloton test at the Nevada Test Site.  Nevertheless, the testing of over 2,050 nuclear devices over the last seven decades by nine nuclear weapons states has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations especially native peoples and veterans who participated in observing tests at a relatively close range.  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people due to nuclear testing.  (Source:  Thomas B. Cochran, William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Milton M. Hoenig.  “Nuclear Weapons Databook:  Volume II, Appendix B.” National Resources Defense Council, Inc. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1987, p. 171.)

    January 11, 2012 – At the National Press Club in Washington, DC, former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, Co-Chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), and Dr. Page Stoutland, Vice President for Nuclear Materials Security at NTI, unveiled the first-ever Nuclear Materials Security Index of Nations, comparing security conditions on a country-by-country basis in 176 nations.  Prepared with the assistance of The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the Index’s function was to persuade nations to strengthen nuclear security and reduce risks of thefts, diversions, and accidents.  On Jan.14, 2016 the third edition of the NTI Index was released assessing security conditions in 24 nations with one kilogram or more of weapons-usable nuclear materials.  An additional 152 countries with less than one kilogram of such materials or none at all were also assessed.  This “theft ranking” was included in the first and second editions of The Index in 2012 and 2014, respectively.  The 2016 NTI Index also examined a third set of nations, 45 in all, in a new “sabotage ranking” which assessed the risk of an act of sabotage or terrorism against a nuclear facility on the same or larger scale as the radioactive contamination seen in the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.  Comments:  It is critical that the U.S., the other eight nuclear weapons states, and other nations with nuclear capabilities and fissile material inventories lift the heavy veil of secrecy and cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency and other global nongovernmental entities such NTI to prevent proliferation and nuclear terrorism.  In future decades, as nuclear weapons and fissile materials inventories are dramatically reduced, such cooperation and transparency will be essential in moving toward global nuclear abolition.  (Source:  Nuclear Threat Initiative.  “Nuclear Security Index:  Building a Framework for Assurance, Accountability, and Action.”  http://www.nti.org/about/projects/nti-index/ accessed Dec. 19, 2017.)

    January 20, 2017 – Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States despite serious concerns expressed during and after the election campaign that either he and/or his campaign officials had suspicious ties to Russian governmental representatives.  In addition to multiple allegations of criminal misconduct going back decades (including sexual harassment/assault, violations of the Domestic and Foreign Emoluments Clauses of the Constitution, and conflict of interest charges tied to his refusal to release his tax returns to the American people), before and after taking the oath of office, countless articles and media stories (from mostly non-mainstream media sources) expressed concerns about the mental stability of one of the oldest persons to ever serve as President – he turned 71 years of age on June 14, 2017.  Recently 27 psychiatrists, psychologists, and mental health professionals, led by Professor Bandy Lee, released a book on October 3, 2017 titled, “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump,” which concluded that, based on the speech, behavior, and daily tweets of the President over the long course of his public life, he is “a serious danger to the country and the world.”  They continued, “He places the country at grave risk of involving it in a war and of undermining democracy itself because of his pathological narcissism and sociopathy.”  Comments:  Along with his recent history of unwise, belligerent, and sometimes contradictory statements about nuclear weapons and his rants against Kim Jong-un and the North Korean regime, taken with the clear knowledge that he might do the unthinkable and press the nuclear button, sending a nuclear holocaust impacting not only North Korea or Iran but also many neighboring nations, including our allies, or other unknown, unpredictable targets, President Trump represents one of the most serious threats to world peace in this century and ultimately to the extremely fragile seven-decade old global nuclear deterrent system since 1945!  Unfortunately, efforts to convince him to resign, to impeach him, or to legally remove him from power appear as unlikely as does the milder action of persuading him to seek immediate psychotherapy.  But, if the global community and the largest majority of Americans possible redouble their efforts, there is increasing optimism that something can be done to prevent breaking the nuclear threshold and increasing the risk of a purposeful, accidental, or unintentional nuclear Armageddon.  Let us hope that in the President’s January 30, 2018 State of the Union Address he announces a clearly peaceful alternative to his previous nuclear saber rattling with North Korea and Iran and the beginning of the end of a renewed Cold War II and nuclear arms race with Russia.  (Sources: Multiple mainstream and alternative news media websites and articles.)

    January 24, 1961 – As part of the 24-hour Operation Coverall U.S. Strategic Air Command plan, consistent with the first Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP), to always have one-third of the strategic bomber fleet airborne in order to have available a nuclear strike option against the Soviet Union and its allies, a B-52G Stratofortress bomber carrying two 2.5 megaton Mark 39 thermonuclear bombs left Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina.  When a wing fuel tank leak was detected, the bomber headed back to base but the plane caught fire, exploded in mid-air, and crashed 12 miles north of the airbase near the town of  Goldsboro killing three of the eight-man crew and releasing the two hydrogen bombs from the plane’s payload bay.  Three of the arming devices on one of the bombs activated causing it to trigger the arming mechanisms and deploy a 100-foot diameter retardation parachute which allowed that bomb to hit the ground with little damage.   However, only one of six arming safety devices prevented the warhead from detonating in a nuclear explosion.  The second bomb plunged into a muddy field at about 700 miles-per-hour and disintegrated – although the tritium bottle and plutonium core were later partially recovered from 20 feet underground.  This bomb was in the “armed” setting because of the impact of the crash.  U.S. government reports, including a declassified report from Sandia National Laboratories published by the National Security Archive on June 9, 2014, concluded that the same safety switch involved in this 1961 crash had also failed in other incidents.  In a related development, Eric Schlosser’s 2013 book “Command and Control” presented a declassified 1969 document which quoted Parker F. Jones, a nuclear safety supervisor at Sandia National Laboratories, who said that, “One simple dynamo-technology, low voltage switch stood between the United States and a major catastrophe.”  Comments:  If one or both of these multi-megaton hydrogen bombs had exploded four days into the Kennedy Administration, a nuclear war might have inadvertently been triggered.  If not, the U.S. still would have suffered an unprecedented nuclear disaster hundreds of times more significant than the Hiroshima bombing.  With hundreds of thousands killed within a zone of 17 miles and similar numbers injured, millions more people would have been irradiated as prevailing winds would have sent a huge radioactive cloud hundreds of miles northeast to the nation’s capital and on to New York City leaving a large, permanent evacuation zone in and around what some experts claim would have become a new Bay of North Carolina.  Comments:  Many of the hundreds, if not thousands of nuclear accidents involving all nine nuclear weapons states still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny.  These near-nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating nuclear weapons arsenals.  (Sources:  Eric Schlosser. “Command and Control:  Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.”  New York:  Penguin Press, 2013, William Burr.  “The Nuclear Vault” National Security Archive at The George Washington University. https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb475/ and “1961 Goldsboro B-52 Crash.”  Military Wiki. http://wikia.com/wiki/1961_Goldsboro_B-52_crash both accessed Dec.19, 2017.)

    January 31, 1935 – Birthdate of Kenzaburo Oe, a renowned Japanese author and winner of the 1994 Nobel Prize in Literature.  This contemporary novelist, short story writer, and essayist has long dealt with social, political, and philosophical issues including social nonconformist theory, existentialism, nuclear weapons, and nuclear power.  Born in Ose, a village now in Uchiko, Ehime Prefecture on Shikoku, he is a pacifist and historian who revealed that Japanese military officers had coerced many Okinawan civilians into committing suicide during the Allied invasion of that island in 1945.  He also authored books and articles on the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well as on Article 9, the War Renunciation clause of the Japanese Constitution.  After the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, he urged Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to rethink the restart of Japanese nuclear reactors and abandon nuclear energy entirely.  In January 2014 he wrote that, “Hiroshima must be engraved in our memories.  It is a catastrophe more dramatic than natural disasters because it’s man-made.  To repeat it by showing the same disregard for human life in nuclear power stations is the worst betrayal of the memory of the victims of Hiroshima.”  (Sources:  Many mainstream and alternative news media articles and Akira Tashiro. “Japan: Finally No to Nuclear Power.”  The Progressive. http://progressive.org/dispatches/japan-finally-nuclear-power accessed Dec. 19, 2017.)

  • The Madness of Deterrence

    At some point in the near or semi-distant future, one way or another, Mr. Trump will have departed public office. For many reasons, perhaps most of all because we managed (if we do manage) to avoid nuclear war during his tenure, we will feel relief. But we may also feel a kind of letdown. Instead of having our anxieties focused upon the shallowness, impulsivity, and macho vengefulness of one particular leader, we will be forced to go back to worrying about the craziness of deterrence itself, irrespective of who is leading us.

    A conference at Harvard on November 4 on “Presidential First Use of Nuclear Weapons,” examined whether the law should be changed and the choice to initiate nuclear war ought to be placed in the hands of congress rather than the president’s hands alone.

    It may be of academic interest where launch authority should reside, but the question fails to address that moment of maximum awfulness when someone in the military reports to civilian authorities—accurately or not—that incoming missiles have appeared on a screen, requiring that someone decide how to respond, with millions of lives in the balance, in the space of a few inadequate minutes.

    To have drifted into the creation of a system that culminates in such a moment, to put any one person or team of people in that position, is to have participated in a form of collective psychosis. We are all complicit, for example in the way both citizens and the press tolerated the bizarre reality that the topic was never brought up in any of the presidential debates.

    It is not surprising that people find it challenging to think clearly, or to think at all, about the issue of nuclear war. Its utter destructiveness is so impossible to wrap our heads around that we take refuge in the fantasy that it can’t happen, it won’t happen, or if it does happen it will occur somewhere else. Mr. Trump’s ascendency has sharpened our apprehension, which may be a good thing if it helps us reexamine the bigger machine in which he is only an eccentric cog.

    Many argue, speciously, that the potential destructiveness is the very thing that makes the system work to prevent war, forgetting the awful paradox of deterrence: that in order to never be used, the weapons must be kept absolutely ready for use. The complexity of the electronic systems intended to control them keeps on increasing as they are deployed in ever greater variety—on missiles from ships, on tactical battlefield launchers, from bombers and submarines, from aging silos in the Midwest. Error is inevitable, and close calls are legion.

    The planet as a whole has pronounced clearly its judgment on deterrence, in the form of a treaty banning all nuclear weapons signed by 122 nations. The United States, citing the erratic and aggressive nuclear behavior of North Korea, boycotted the conference that led to this majority condemnation.

    16 years ago, Henry Kissinger joined William Perry, George Shultz and Sam Nunn to write a series of editorials in the Wall Street Journal arguing that deterrence is obsolete and abolition must be the ultimate policy goal, even if fiendishly difficult to realize. On October 28, 2017, Kissinger was quoted in the New York Times saying:

    “If they [North Korea] continue to have nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons must spread in the rest of Asia. It cannot be that North Korea is the only Korean country in the world that has nuclear weapons, without the South Koreans trying to match it. Nor can it be that Japan will sit there,” he added. “So therefore we’re talking about nuclear proliferation.”

    It is unclear from this statement whether Dr. Kissinger has changed his mind about the goal of abolition in favor of further proliferation.  If he has, it is a little like arguing that people should take guns to church to prevent mass murder. Which will result in a safer world, one where everyone has nuclear weapons, or the world envisioned by Kissinger and colleagues in the Wall Street Journal, a direction encouraged by the 122 nations who voted so unambiguously at the U.N.?

    The answer to the North Korean crisis is not further nuclear proliferation, nor, God forbid, is it all-out war on the Korean peninsula that would leave millions dead and make the United States, were we to participate with or even without nuclear weapons, a pariah nation.  Instead we can start by reassuring North Korea in word and deed that we are not an existential threat to them, and wait patiently for internal changes in their governance that time will make inevitable.

    Former Secretary of Defense Perry has argued we can afford to entirely eliminate the land-based leg of our land-sea-air nuclear triad with no loss of security. What would happen to planetary balances of power if our country unilaterally joined those 122 nations in a treaty that categorizes nuclear weapons, like chemical weapons, as beyond the pale, and we began to stand some of our weapons down in confidence-building gestures of good will? Would the Chinese or the Russians, or for that matter the North Koreans, really risk nuclear winter by launching unilateral attacks upon the U.S.?  Isn’t the risk of that happening a good deal less than the risk of slipping into war with North Korea merely because leaders in both countries assumed that credible deterrence required the madness of mutual threats?

    Winslow Myers, the author of “Living Beyond War: A Citizen’s Guide,” serves on the Advisory Board of the War Prevention Initiative and writes on global issues for Peacevoice.

  • December: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    December 1, 2016 – Alex Wellerstein’s Washington Post article, “No One Can Stop President Trump From Using Nuclear Weapons,” concluded that, “When the legal framework for nuclear weapons was developed, the fear was not about an irrational president, but trigger-happy generals,” which was resolved long ago, Wellerstein noted, to mandate civilian control over the military and most importantly its possible firing of nuclear weapons.  Yet he also remarked that, “There is no way today to keep (President) Trump from launching a nuclear attack under the existing system.”  This article was certainly not the first of its kind but it surely helped fuel a continued ongoing debate expressed earlier in a most partisan way by Hillary Clinton’s statement at the Democratic National Convention in the summer of 2016, “A man you can bait with a tweet is not a man we can trust with nuclear weapons.”  More recently at a Nov. 14, 2017 hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) titled “Authority to Order the Use of Nuclear Weapons,” despite the admonition of chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) that the proceeding was not intended to target the 45th President, “This is not specific to anybody,” many Democrats on the committee were not so reticent in expressing their concerns.  Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) stated that, “We are concerned that the President of the United States is so unstable, is so volatile, has a decision-making process that is so quixotic, that he might order a nuclear weapons strike that is wildly out of step with U.S. national interests.” Comments:  Despite seemingly comforting statements during this hearing by Brian McKeon, former Chief Counsel to the Democratic members of the SFRC for 12 years (“Article II of the Constitution mandating the President as sole Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces does not give him carte blanche to take the country to war.”) and General Robert Kehler, former head of U.S. Strategic Command (“The military can refuse to follow what it considers an illegal order, even a nuclear one.”), the entirety of the human species remains deeply concerned about the current very high risk of nuclear conflict involving the U.S.  Even if recent legislation from Representative Ted Lieu (D-CA) and Senator Edward Markey (D-MA) on “Restricting First Use of Nuclear Weapons Act of 2017” or a future, more bipartisan version of such a bill reached Donald Trump’s desk, it is likely he would veto it and it appears unlikely that Congress could override that veto. Nevertheless, it is time to redouble global efforts to prevent a Nuclear Armageddon.  (Sources:  U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations website and a variety of mainstream and alternative media sources such as Democracy Now and RT.com.)

    December 7, 1993 – On this date, U.S. Secretary of Energy Hazel R. O’Leary announced her Openness Initiative in “a deliberate effort to rebuild a basic level of trust between the American people and their government that is necessary for a democracy to function.”  As part of this initiative, she released documents describing previously classified U.S. nuclear tests, facts about bomb-grade plutonium, and related information.  The most startling release of information related to human radiation experiments, specifically the 1945-47 injections of 18 human subjects with plutonium.  More details on a wide variety of 48 different radiation experiments conducted on uninformed and/or uneducated members of the public came in a June 1994 press release.  Through the efforts of hundreds of Department of Energy (DOE) staff, private stakeholders, and long-time activists, a years-long effort to find, declassify, evaluate, and substantiate abuses by DOE and their subcontractors were revealed in a number of subsequent reports that were published in the ensuing years of the Clinton Administration. One such report was released in February of 1995.  Titled, “Human Radiation Experiments: The Department of Energy Roadmap to the Story and Records” (document number DOE/EH-0445), this report catalogued dozens of experiments conducted on not only adults but also children from the 1930s to 1970s.  One series of tests, which were conducted on unsuspecting hospital patients including the critically ill, pregnant women and their fetuses, the poor, the middle class, the mentally ill, and institutionalized children, resulted in the injection, irradiation, or other exposure to radioactive elements with the compiled data from the resultant cancers and even radioactive body parts forwarded for final analysis to Los Alamos National Laboratory or other DOE or governmental facilities.  Comments:  Such experiments probably represent only the tip of the iceberg in terms of countless, purposeful experiments, tests, and radioactive exposures conducted by representatives of the nine nuclear weapons states and possibly other nations that considered or are today considering acquiring nuclear weapons and/or fissile materials.  This is yet another paramount reason why nuclear weapons and nuclear power should be dramatically reduced and eliminated entirely (except for legitimate medicinal uses or very limited internationally-sanctioned civilian nuclear fusion reactor research) by 2030.  (Source:  Eileen Welsome.  “The Plutonium Files: America’s Secret Medical Experiments in the Cold War.”  New York:  Dial Press, 1999.)

    December 10, 2017 – Setsuko Thurlow, an 85 year-old hibakusha survivor of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, along with Executive Director Beatrice Fihn, as dual representatives of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), will receive the Nobel Peace Prize at a ceremony in Oslo, Norway.  ICAN is being rewarded “for its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons (a reference to the overwhelming approval by U.N. member countries, except the U.S. and other nuclear weapons states, of the July 7, 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons- TPNW).”  ICAN is a coalition of 468 nonprofit organizations in 101 nations founded in 2007.  Comments:  Two years ago, Setsuko Thurlow honored the victims of the U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima on the 70th anniversary of the attack by remarking that, “Former German President Richard von Weizeker once said, ‘We must look truth straight in the eye – without embellishment and without distortion,’ The truth is, we all live with the daily threat of nuclear weapons.  In every silo, on every submarine, in the bomb bays of airplanes, every second of every day, nuclear weapons, thousands on high alert, are poised for deployment threatening everyone we love and everything we hold dear.  How much longer can we allow the nuclear weapons states to wield this threat to all life on earth?  Let us make the 70th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki the appropriate milestone to achieve our goal:  to abolish nuclear weapons, and safeguard the future of our one shared planet earth.” (Sources:  International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.  “Atomic Bomb Survivor to Jointly Accept Nobel Peace Prize on ICAN’s Behalf.”  Press Release, Oct. 26, 2017. http://www.ican.org/campaign-news/atomic-bomb-survivor-to-jointly-accept-nobel-peace-prize accessed Nov.16, 2017 and The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.  “70 Years After Hiroshima, It’s Time to Confront the Past.” Sunflower Newsletter, September 2015.)

    December 13, 2001 – The George W. Bush Administration announced that it would withdraw the United States from the 1972 ABM Treaty in six months – the first formal renunciation of an international arms control agreement since 1945.  Months later, in 2002, the President announced he would give the green light to the rapid deployment of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) missile defense system with the goal of having an initial operational capability by late 2004.  Unfortunately, the 43rd President justified building the GMD system by arguing that the need for strategic missile defense was acute and required exempting the system from many of the mandatory oversight, accountability, and financial transparency procedures that Congress and the Pentagon had learned through decades of experience are critical to successfully developing viable, successful, and effective military systems.  The same can be said for the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system which currently has six “operational” batteries deployed.  Both THAAD and the GMD (the latter with a total of 44 deployed interceptors at Ft. Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California) systems’ exemption from the proven fly-before-you-buy process and track record of extremely limited real world capability (as seen in drastically flawed testing programs) has had an impact on the viability and reliability of missile defense systems that the Pentagon falsely claims are “proven.”  Comments:  Not only have unwise accelerated deployments of strategic missile defenses been incredibly expensive and wasteful of hundreds of billions of tax dollars, before and after President Reagan’s March 23, 1983 “Star Wars” speech, these deployments also helped fuel a renewed offensive nuclear arms race as the U.S., Russia, China, and other members of the Nuclear Club commit to spend trillions in the next few decades on new generations of ICBMs, submarine-launched and mobile land-based ballistic missiles, and air-launched cruise missiles, not to mention accelerated research and development on more exotic and destabilizing nuclear weapons systems.  (Sources:  Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors. “Arms Control Chronology.” Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information, 2002, p. 98 and Laura Grego, George N. Lewis, and David Wright. “Shielded From Oversight: The Disasterous U.S. Approach to Strategic Missile Defense.”  Union of Concerned Scientists, July 2016 and U.S. Department of Defense.  Missile Defense Agency. “Elements: Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD).” and “THAAD.” https://www.mda.mil/system/gmd.html and https://www.mda.mil/system/thaad.html both accessed Nov. 15, 2017.)

    December 18, 1970 – At the Nevada Test Site in Area 8 on Yucca Flat, the eighth of 12 tests in the Operation Emery series of nuclear blasts, code-named Baneberry, caused an unexpected and unprecedented result for an underground explosion – a significant release of radioactive elements.  The ten kiloton blast, detonated at the bottom of a sealed vertical shaft 900 feet deep, created a fissure near the surface of the shaft cap that resulted in the leak of approximately six percent of the explosive’s radioactive products into the atmosphere.  Hot gas and radioactive fallout rained down on workers at the site but the release not only had a local impact but a global one.  The plume released 6.7 MCi of radioactive material including 80 kCi of Iodine-131 and other toxic noble gases that rose to the upper atmosphere and jet stream settling down later in areas of northeastern California, northern Nevada, southern Idaho, and eastern sections of Oregon and Washington with some radionuclides spreading across the U.S., to Canada, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean.  Comments:  The testing of over 2,050 nuclear devices over the last seven decades by nine nuclear weapons states has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations especially native peoples and veterans who participated in observing tests at a relatively close range.  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people due to nuclear testing.  (Source:  Thomas B. Cochran, William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Milton M. Hoenig.  “Nuclear Weapons Databook:  Volume II, Appendix B.” National Resources Defense Council, Inc. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1987, p.169 and “Estimated Exposures and Thyroid Doses Received by the American People from Iodine-131 in Fallout Following Nevada Atmospheric Nuclear Bomb Tests: History of the Nevada Test Site and Nuclear Testing Background.” National Cancer Institute. Chapter 2, September 1997. NIH 97-4264. https://www.cancer.gov.)

    December 24, 1950 – Fifteen days after General Douglas MacArthur first requested that President Truman provide him with atomic bombs to turn back a massive Chinese attack on U.N. forces, he upped the ante on Christmas Eve by submitting to the President a more detailed strategic plan calling for a nuclear first strike. MacArthur’s operational plans included a list of 26 targets in mainland China to be hit by atomic blasts.  He also proposed dropping 30-50 such weapons in a path along the Manchurian border to prevent future invasions into North Korea from Red China for sixty years!  In April of 1951, Truman had had enough and he ordered MacArthur to step down as commander of Allied Forces in Korea.  However, top U.S. military planners continued to focus on using nuclear weapons to break the stalemate on the Korean peninsula.  MacArthur’s replacement, General Matthew Ridgway, requested the use of 38 atomic bombs against enemy targets in May of that year.  Comments:  While some would argue that events two-thirds of a century in the past have little relevance today, in fact recent U.S.-North Korean tensions include unfortunately a renewed dose of nuclear threat and bluster, this time on both sides.  The Korean War that was curtailed dramatically after the July 1953 Armistice has nevertheless been reenergized.  There is a desperate need for global intervention to forestall a 21st century Korean War by signing a permanent peace treaty ending the conflict for good.  All parties at risk should be coerced, persuaded, cajoled, or begged to resolve the crisis through an enlarged “1.5 talks” process that expands this small private channel endeavor to a large-scale negotiating protocol shepherded by neutral nations such as Brazil, India, and South Africa.  The alternative could be the species-threatening breach of the nuclear threshold for the first time since 1945 – possibly the beginning of the end for global civilization.  (Sources:  Eric Schlosser.  “Command and Control:  Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.”  New York:  Penguin Press, 2013 and numerous mainstream and alternative news media sources.)

     

  • Daniel Ellsberg’s Doomsday Machine

    The man who so famously cast light onto the truths of the Vietnam War has now revealed a much larger threat to not only the United States but to all the citizens of our world. Mr. Ellsberg’s new work has the initial effect of scaring the rational reader out of their wits. His personal encounters with the nuclear age have yielded a multitude of warnings for those still holding the illusion that deterrence can save us. He skillfully elevates the faults of our nuclear programs, using his narrative of careful research and silenced horror to show the qualifications he has for raising these concerns. From the interviews he conducted as an employee of the RAND corporation to the war plans he read in the Department of Defense, Daniel Ellsberg’s book is filled with the factors that complete his titular Doomsday Machine. He describes a broken system of retaliation, a history of unnecessary risks, and a government whose morals were lost to the concept of a “just war.”

    In the era of barbed insults regarded as precursors to nuclear threat, the warnings yielded by The Doomsday Machine have become required reading. Many of the circumstances of Ellsberg’s early fears (delegation of first-use capabilities, casualty counts that fail to recognize the theory of nuclear winter, and the space left within deployment of the arsenal for human error) haven’t been fixed or addressed since his time at the Pentagon. We live under the threat of a force the danger of which we cannot comprehend. What Doomsday Machine attempts to do is comprehend this danger, so as to start to dismantle it.

    Tracing the nuclear bomb to its early days on a blackboard at UC Berkeley, he speaks to the uncertainty even its creators had as to what the detonation of this weapon would cause. He speaks to the family men and young physicists who, on the eve of the Trinity tests, took bets as to whether or not their first test would be the end of life on Earth. The atomic flash at the outset of this earliest ever detonation was momentarily mistaken for atmospheric ignition, a seconds-long death of all life, where “the earth would blaze for less than a second in the heavens and then forever continue its rounds as a barren rock.” Even Hitler’s administration did not think the risk worth it, choosing not to pursue scientific research on the creation of such a weapon. Yet now the United States, upheld as the world police for all things moral and ethical, has stockpiled thousands of thermonuclear warheads, while the use of a mere three hundred of their number could cause just as devastating a finale to humanity’s time on Earth.

    Ellsberg asks, “Does the United States still need a Doomsday Machine? Does Russia? Did they ever?”

    He tells us, “The mortal predicament did not begin with Donald J. Trump, and it will not end with his departure.”

    Daniel Ellsberg’s title evokes Kubrick’s film on purpose, a metaphor that culminates in his definition of the “Strangelove Paradox.” The United States has thousands of “Doomdsay Machine” weapons and hundreds of “fingers on the button.” The question the reader must ask, now mortified by the necessary horrors of Ellsberg’s masterpiece, is how to save the world.

    You can find Ellsberg’s book at your local bookshop, or click here to purchase on amazon.com.

  • Decoding Donald

    This article was originally published by Counterpunch.

    The future of the world and of humanity is at the mercy of a lunatic.  His name is Donald Trump, and he alone has access to the U.S. nuclear codes.  Before he does something rash and irreversible with those codes, it is imperative to decode Donald, taking the necessary steps to remove this power from him.

    Trump tweeted on December 16, 2016: “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.”

    What good would a greatly strengthened and expanded nuclear capability do for the U.S.?  We can already end civilization and most life on the planet with the use of our nuclear arsenal.  The U.S. has nearly 7,000 nuclear weapons, with more than 1,500 of them deployed and ready for use.  By comparison, North Korea and its leader, Kim Jong-un, the subject of much of Trump’s venom, have only 10 to 15 nuclear weapons.  But those have Trump worried enough to go to the United Nations and threaten to totally destroy North Korea should that country threaten the U.S.

    How many more nuclear weapons does Trump think are needed to keep Kim Jong-un at bay?  The truth is that the U.S. already has more than enough nuclear weapons to deter North Korea, assuming they need to be deterred at all.  What North Korea actually appears to want is a small nuclear arsenal capable of deterring the U.S. from invading its country, overthrowing its regime, and killing its leaders.  Since North Korean leaders believe they face an existential threat from the U.S., a greatly expanded U.S. nuclear arsenal won’t change the current equation.

    Nor will more and strengthened nuclear weapons change the equation between the U.S. and Russia, China, or any other nuclear-armed country.  It will just start a new nuclear arms race, which will benefit only the arms merchants while making the world far more dangerous.  Trump doesn’t seem to understand this.  His ignorance about foreign and nuclear policy is appalling and frightening.

    Further, the world won’t come to its senses about nuclear weapons on its own and without leadership.  Earlier this year, in July, 122 non-nuclear weapons countries adopted a new Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.  It was a great step forward.  But, unfortunately, none of the nine nuclear-armed countries participated, and the U.S., UK and France issued a joint statement saying they would never sign, ratify or ever become parties to the treaty.  Such is Trump’s leadership, moving the world toward doomsday. These countries, led by the U.S., appear to love their nuclear weapons and treat them as a security blanket, despite the fact that these weapons provide no security to their possessors.  In fact, nuclear weapons paint a bull’s eye target on the citizens of countries possessing nuclear weapons.

    Trump is exactly the type of person who should not be anywhere near the nuclear codes.  He is not calm, thoughtful, deliberate, cautious, or well-informed.  Rather, he is erratic, thin-skinned, narcissistic and self-absorbed.  He takes slights personally and likes to punch back hard.  He could be insulted and backed into a corner, and decide that nuclear weapons are the solution to what he takes to be taunting behavior.  He could be awakened at 3:00 a.m., and make a hasty decision to launch the U.S. nuclear arsenal instead of a tweet.

    The world’s best hope is that the military men surrounding Trump, particularly Secretary of Defense Mattis, would recognize any order from Trump to launch nuclear weapons as an illegal order and refuse to carry it out.  In addition, it should be recognized by Congress that Trump is mentally unstable and unfit for office, and that they must take the necessary steps to remove him from the presidency before it is too late.  Impeachment would be the best way to decode Donald.

  • Nuclear Weapons: An Absolute Evil

    NUCLEAR WEAPONS: AN ABSOLUTE EVIL, by John Scales Avery

    A pdf file of a first draft of the book can be freely downloaded from the following link:

    http://www.fredsakademiet.dk/library/nuclear.pdf

    Here are some excerpts from the Introduction:


    The threat of nuclear war is very high today

    This book is a collection of articles and book chapters that I have written advocating the abolition of nuclear weapons. Some new material has also been added, for example a discussion of the Nuclear Weapons Convention which has recently been adopted by an overwhelming majority vote at the United Nations General Assembly.

    Today, because of the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump will initiate a nuclear war against Iran or North Korea, or even Russia, the issue of nuclear weapons is at the center of the global stage. I strongly believe that the time has come for all countries to take a united stance on this issue. Most of the world’s nations live in nuclear weapon free zones. This does not give them any real protection, since the catastrophic environmental effects of nuclear war would be global, not sparing any nation. However, by supporting the Nuclear Weapons Convention and by becoming members of NWFZ’s, nations can state that they consider nuclear weapons to be morally unacceptable, a view that must soon become worldwide if human civilization is to survive.

    We must take a stand, and state clearly that nuclear weapons are an absolute evil; that their possession does not increase anyone’s security; that their continued existence is a threat to the life of every person on the planet; and that these genocidal and potentially omnicidal weapons have no place in a civilized society.

    Nuclear warfare as genocide

    On December 9, 1948, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a convention prohibiting genocide. It seems appropriate to discuss nuclear warfare against the background of this important standard of international law.

    Cannot nuclear warfare be seen as an example of genocide? It is capable of killing entire populations, including babies, young children, adults in their prime and old people, without any regard for guilt or innocence. The retention of nuclear weapons, with the intent to use them under some circumstances, must be seen as the intent to commit genocide. Is it not morally degrading to see our leaders announce their intention to commit the “crime of crimes” in our names?

    The continuity of life is sacred

    In 1985, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War received the Nobel Peace Prize. IPPNW had been founded in 1980 by six physicians, three from the Soviet Union and three from the United States. Today, the organization has wide membership among the world’s physicians. Professor Bernard Lown of the Harvard School of Public Health, one of the founders
    of IPPNW, said in a recent speech:

    “…No public health hazard ever faced by humankind equals the threat of nuclear war. Never before has man possessed the destructive resources to make this planet uninhabitable…. Modern medicine has nothing to offer, not even a token benefit, in the event of nuclear war…”

    “We are but transient passengers on this planet Earth. It does not belong to us. We are not free to doom generations yet unborn. We are not at liberty to erase humanity’s past or dim its future. Social systems do not endure for eternity. Only life can lay claim to uninterrupted continuity. This continuity is sacred.”

    Mr. Javier Perez de Cuellar, former Secretary-General of the United Nations, emphasized the same point in one of his speeches: “I feel”, he said, “Nuclear weapons are criminal! Every war is a crime!”

    War was always madness, always immoral, always the cause of unspeakable suffering, economic waste and widespread destruction, and always a source of poverty, hate, barbarism and endless cycles of revenge and counter-revenge. It has always been a crime for soldiers to kill people, just as it is a crime for murderers in civil society to kill people. No flag has ever been wide enough
    to cover up atrocities.

    But today, the development of all-destroying modern weapons has put war completely beyond the bounds of sanity and elementary humanity. Today, war is not only insane, but also a violation of international law. Both the United Nations Charter and the Nuremberg Principles make it a crime to launch an aggressive war. According to the Nuremberg Principles, every soldier is responsible for the crimes that he or she commits, even while acting under the orders of a superior officer.

    Nuclear weapons are not only insane, immoral and potentially omnicidal, but also criminal under international law. In response to questions put to it by WHO and the UN General Assembly, the International Court of Justice ruled in 1996 that “the threat and use of nuclear weapons would generally be contrary to the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, and particularly the principles and rules of humanitarian law.” The only possible exception to this general rule might be “an extreme circumstance of self-defense, in which the very survival of a state would be at stake”. But the Court refused to say that even in this extreme circumstance the threat or use of nuclear weapons would be legal. It left the exceptional case undecided. In addition, the Court added unanimously that “there exists an obligation to pursue in good faith and bring to a conclusion negotiations leading to nuclear disarmament in all its aspects under strict and effective international
    control.”

    Can we not rid ourselves of both nuclear weapons and the institution of war itself? We must act quickly and resolutely before everything that we love in our beautiful world is reduced to radioactive ashes.

  • November: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    November 5, 1951Easy, the fourth nuclear test explosion of Operation Buster-Jangle in a series of seven test blasts sponsored by Los Alamos National Laboratory, was conducted at the Nevada Test Site.  A U.S. Air Force B-45 bomber dropped the warhead and it was detonated at an altitude of 1,314 feet with a magnitude of 31 kilotons, about twice as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.  The objective of these tests was to evaluate new devices that might be included in the U.S. nuclear arsenal.  Comments:  The testing of over 2,050 nuclear devices over the last seven decades by nine nuclear weapons states has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations especially native peoples and veterans who participated in observing tests at a relatively close range.  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people due to nuclear testing.  (Source:  Thomas B. Cochran, William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Milton M. Hoenig.  “Nuclear Weapons Databook:  Volume II, Appendix B.” National Resources Defense Council, Inc. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1987, p. 152.)

    November 8, 2016 – In one of the closest elections in U.S. history, Republican Donald J. Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States by virtue of his Electoral College margin of 304-227 over Democrat Hillary Clinton despite the fact that he lost the popular vote by over 2.8 million votes (48.0 to 45.9 percent).  As a result, the nuclear threat to the U.S. and the world has undisputedly risen based on Trump’s pre-election statements:  “You want to be unpredictable (with nuclear weapons),” CBS-TV, Jan. 13, 2016; “Why can’t we use nuclear weapons?” MSNBC, Aug. 3, 2016, as well as his comments made during the transition period and after he took the oath of office.  Six days after his inauguration, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, in consultation with that organization’s Board of Sponsors, which included 15 Nobel Laureates, “…decided to act, in part, based on the words of a single person: Donald Trump.” The organization’s press release continued, “Donald Trump made disturbing comments about the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons…Both his statements and actions as President-elect have broken with historical precedent in unsettling ways.  He has made ill-considered comments about expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal.  He has shown a troubling propensity to discount or outright reject expert advice related to international security (and arms control)…”  The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists used this language about Trump (as well as pointing to other negative global nuclear trends) to justify moving the Doomsday Clock from three minutes to two and a half minutes until Midnight.  Comments:  Unfortunately most scholars would argue that historical precedent does not allow for the consideration of threatening nuclear Armageddon as a sufficient constitutional justification for the impeachment of a President.  Many other presidents have used nuclear threats and gotten away with it, notably President Nixon’s 1969 actions consistent with his ‘Madman Theory of International Relations’ of threatening an attack on the Soviet Union in order to convince the Vietnamese communist leadership that he was irrational and unable to compromise at the Paris Peace Talks.  Since becoming president, Donald Trump has expressed strong hostility toward two critical nuclear agreements negotiated by his predecessor: the 2010 New START Treaty with Russia and the multilateral nuclear deal with Iran.  Kingston Reif and Kelsey Davenport noted additionally that, “He has impulsively and recklessly threatened to respond to North Korean provocations (nuclear tests and ballistic missile test launches) with ‘fire and fury,’” and stated that the U.S. military might be forced to destroy all of North Korea.  Indeed, how can one be absolutely sure that like other presidents, Trump is only threatening to use nuclear weapons, not actually planning to do the unthinkable and cross the nuclear threshold plunging the world into an abyss it may never recover from?  Last year and then again a few weeks ago, over 20 prestigious psychiatrists and mental health professionals analyzed Trump’s personality and character and determined that he suffers from “malignant narcissism,” and that, “his speech and behavior show signs of significant mental derangement,” concluding that, “anyone as mentally unstable as Trump should not be entrusted with the life and death powers of the presidency.”  For these paramount reasons, along with many others noted by legal and constitutional scholars (his violation of the Foreign Emoluments Clause for one), it seems reasonable that Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and all other political entities in this nation and abroad should press firmly for the resignation or impeachment of President Trump with all deliberate speed!  On the other hand, even if this unlikely series of events achieves success – what guarantee is there that Vice President Mike Pence or others in the line of presidential succession won’t also endanger the world with their own nuclear threats and actions?  In actuality, individual leaders are not the main problem.  Humanity faces destruction from climate change and nuclear war mostly because of a flawed global system that must adapt, reform, and evolve into a more egalitarian model before it is too late.   (Sources:  Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Press Release.  “It is Now Two and A Half Minutes to Midnight.”Jan.25, 2017 (Embargoed until Jan. 26, 2017). http://thebulletin.org/press-release/it-now-two-and-half-minutes-midnight10432, Mehdi Hasan. “Worried About Trump’s Mental Stability?  The Worst is Yet to Come.”  The Intercept.org, Oct. 7, 2017, Dave Leip’s Atlas of Presidential Electionshttps://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2016&off=0&elect=0&f=0, and Kingston Reif and Kelsey Davenport.  “Trump’s Threat to Nuclear Order.”  War on the Rocks.  Oct. 12, 2017. http://warontherocks.com/2017/10/trumps-threat-to-nuclear-order/ all accessed on Oct. 20, 2017.)

    November 17-18, 1980 – “The Medical Consequences of Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear War,” a PSR travelling symposium sponsored by the Bay Area Chapter of Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) and the Council for a Livable World Education Fund, was held on these dates at the Herbst Theater in the War Memorial Veterans Building at the Civic Center in San Francisco.  Under the leadership of Dr. Helen Caldicott, PSR’s symposium series went from one U.S. city to another illustrating in stark detail the specific and horrendous impacts of nuclear war on each of the nation’s metropolitan areas.  Participants in this San Francisco conference included Herbert Scoville, Jr., President of the Arms Control Association, Dr. Sidney Drell, Professor of Theoretical Physics and Deputy Director of The Stanford Linear Accelerator, Dr. Stuart Finch, former Director of Research, Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima, and retired Rear Admiral Gene R. La Rocque, Director of the Center for Defense Information.  The symposium wrapped up with this concluding statement, “There are no winners in a nuclear war, worldwide fallout would contaminate much of the globe for generations and atmospheric effects would severely damage all living things.”  Comments:  Three years after this conference, the TTAPS Study, one of whose authors included science popularizer and Professor of Astronomy at Cornell Carl Sagan, provided even stronger evidence that a nuclear war would not only be catastrophic for global civilization but could possibly trigger the end of all human life on the planet due to the Nuclear Winter phenomenon.  Nevertheless, presidents such as Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump have argued and continue to argue that might makes right and that building up the U.S. nuclear arsenal is not only good for the economy but ensures our nation’s survival in an unstable world.  Thankfully, a growing global constituency is demanding a shift to a New Paradigm that promotes an end to all wars, the phase-out of not only nuclear weapons but also nuclear power plants in favor of green, sustainable non-carbon-producing forms of energy, the redistribution of wealth to ensure the survival and prosperity of all the world’s inhabitants, and an end to the warped conception of “Peace through Strength.” (Source:  University of California at San Francisco.  News/Public Information Series Press Release. Nov. 6, 1980 and a plethora of alternative news media sources.)

    November 20, 1983The Day After, a Nicholas Meyer-produced film was broadcast nationwide on ABC Television.  Starring Jason Robards, JoBeth Williams, John Lithgow and others, this film was one of the first realistic dramatic presentations that explored the specific impacts of nuclear war on an actual American city – Lawrence, Kansas.  It is estimated that approximately 100 million Americans, half of the adult population of the country, watched the televised event.  Even a dedicated Cold Warrior like President Ronald Reagan, who may have seen an early rough cut of The Day After, acknowledged that his administration’s preparations to triumph in a nuclear war were naïve and unrealistic when he publicly stated in a speech to the Japanese Diet, “I believe there can be only one policy for preserving our precious civilization in this modern age.  A nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought.”  Comments:  Over the seven decades since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Hollywood as well as independent producers have provided many more films, miniseries, and documentaries about the unfortunately all too real threat of nuclear war.  However, the still growing strength of the military-industrial-Congressional-nuclear weapons laboratories complex and the mainstream media’s reluctance to report anti-nuclear and anti-militarist stories has resulted in a decades-long trend of growing militarism in American society.  This is seen in a number of areas:  Congress’ rhetoric of “the nuclear option” in reference to budget debates, the strong association of military terms to entertainment, sporting, and political events, the growing popularity of the video-computer game industry with titles embracing nuclear conflict and post-apocalyptic “play scenarios,” and in many other segments of American life.  Fortunately, a growing proportion of Americans and world citizenry are increasingly cognizant that nuclear conflict is not a game and must be prevented at all costs if our global civilization is to survive.  (Sources:  Mainstream and alternative media sources including CNN, The New York Times, Democracy Now, and RT.com.)

    November 24, 1975 – Enroute to the Pacific Missile Test Range Facility in Hawaii, the U.S. Navy destroyer DD-950 U.S.S. Richard S. Edwards suffered an accidental explosion when an ASROC anti-submarine rocket propulsion system ignited causing injuries to at least one or more crew members.  The Navy did not categorize this incident as a Broken Arrow or nuclear accident most probably because the missile, while nuclear-capable, was in this particular circumstance not armed with an atomic warhead.  However, this incident illustrates that it was certainly possible that a nuclear-armed ASROC igniting accidentally could trigger a serious leak of radioactive materials or even the loss of the warhead overboard.  Comments:  This serious accident was just one example of dozens or even hundreds of accidents, involving weapons systems that are nuclear-capable, that have occurred underwater or on the high seas by naval forces of the nine nuclear weapons states.  In cases where nuclear reactors and warheads are lost at sea, there is the deadly serious concern about the leakage of highly radioactive toxins affecting not only the flora and fauna of the deep but the health and well-being of millions of people.  (Sources:  John Pike, et al., “Chicken Little and Darth Vader: Is the Sky Really Falling?” Federation of American Scientists, Oct. 1, 1991, pp. 57-58 and William Arkin and Joshua Handler.  “Neptune Papers II:  Naval Nuclear Accidents at Sea.”  Greenpeace International, 1990.)

    November 28, 1993 – In one of the twenty known incidents of the attempted illicit sale of Russian bomb-grade fissile material in the last 25 years, especially since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, local authorities arrested a number of suspects in Polyarny, Russia on this date for the attempted transfer of 4,500 grams of highly enriched uranium to a group of buyers who were in actuality undercover security forces – this was the largest amount seized in the last two decades or so.  In April 2015, the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Deputy Director Anne Harrington testified at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Strategic Forces that, “Of the roughly 20 documented seizures of nuclear explosive materials since 1992, all have come out of the former Soviet Union.” Despite recent reassurances from Rosatom, the state-owned corporation that runs Russia’s nuclear energy and weapons plants, that their nuclear materials, “are always strictly controlled” and accounted for, a Center for Public Integrity November 2015 investigative report concluded that, “In fact, some 99 percent of the world’s weapons-grade materials have been secured.  But one percent or more is still out there, and it amounts to several thousand pounds that could be acquired by any one of several terrorist organizations.” Comments:  Although some significant progress in securing and protecting nuclear materials from  theft or diversion has been allegedly confirmed by Russia and other Nuclear Club nations at the four biennial nuclear security summits (2010-16), much more needs to be accomplished in the U.N. and other international fora, as well as bilaterally by the Trump and Putin administrations, to prevent the use of fissile materials in dirty bombs or primitive small-yield fission weapons whether the materials diverted come from civilian nuclear plants or military nuclear weapon facilities.  In addition to concerns about the resulting mass casualties and short- and long-term radioactive contamination from such a catastrophe, there is also the frightening possibility that in times of crisis, such an attack might inadvertently trigger nuclear retaliation or even precipitate a nuclear exchange.  (Source:  Douglas Birch and R. Jeffrey Smith.  “The Fuel for a Nuclear Bomb is in the Hands of an Unknown Black Marketeer from Russia, U.S. Officials Say.” Center for Public Integrity, Nov. 12, 2015 reprinted in Courier: The Stanley Foundation Newsletter, Number 86, Spring 2016, pp. 7-14.)

  • October: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    October 3, 1942 – At the Peenemunde Army Research Center located on an island in the Baltic Sea, aerospace engineers commanded by the German Wehrmacht for the first time successfully launched a long-range guided single-stage, liquid-fueled ballistic missile.  The 46-foot long Aggregat 4 (A4) rocket, also known as Vergeltungswaffe 2 (V-2), which translates as “Vengeance Weapon 2,” weighing in at 27,600 pounds and capable of carrying a one-ton conventional high explosive warhead, reached a height of 52.5 miles.  Almost two years later beginning in September of 1944, some 3,000 of these weapons were launched at Allied targets in London, Antwerp, and Leiden, within their range limit of approximately 200 miles, killing almost 10,000 civilians and military personnel.  Also, tens of thousands of Jewish and other slave laborers were worked to death building not only the rocket components but the huge launch complex.  Comments:  Over the last three quarters of a century, the development of long-range ballistic missiles on hair-trigger alert status and nuclear weapons, especially thermonuclear fusion weapons with yields up to thousands of times that of the Hiroshima bomb, have led to an untenable, irrational, and unstable world where at any moment, a global nuclear catastrophe can be triggered through accident, miscalculation, madness, or unintentional means, which could very well result in the end of civilization and very possibly the extinction of the human species.  We have been very fortunate so far, but our luck won’t last forever, therefore these doomsday weapons must be eliminated at the earliest possible opportunity.  (Source:  Wernher von Braun and Frederick Ordway III.  “Space Travel: A History.”  New York:  Harper & Row, 1985, p. 45.)

    October 6, 1986 – A Soviet nuclear-powered Yankee-I-class submarine K-219, that had experienced an accidental explosion in one of its SS-N-6 long-range nuclear-tipped ballistic missile tubes three days earlier approximately 480 miles east of Bermuda, sank in the Atlantic Ocean while under tow in 18,000 feet of water.  At least three crew members were killed in the initial explosion and it is likely that leakage from the damaged nuclear warheads may have irradiated other members of the crew and the personnel of five Soviet rescue vessels despite assurances by the Soviet government that there was “no risk of triggering the weapons onboard, or of a nuclear explosion, or of radioactive contamination.”  However, Western sources reported at the time that 16 nuclear missiles and two reactors were on board the vessel when it sank.  Comments:  This deadly incident was just one example of dozens or even hundreds of accidents involving submarines, surface ships, and aircraft involving the loss of nuclear propulsion units and/or nuclear weapons.  Some of these nuclear reactors and warheads lost at sea are leaking highly radioactive toxins affecting not only the flora and fauna of the deep, but the health and well-being of millions of people.  (Sources:  John Pike, et al., “Chicken Little and Darth Vader:  Is the Sky Really Falling?” Federation of American Scientists, Oct. 1, 1991 and William Arkin and Joshua Handler. “Neptune Papers II:  Naval Nuclear Accidents at Sea.”  Greenpeace International, 1990.)

    October 17, 2015 – At a meeting of the World Medical Association (WMA) General Assembly held in Moscow, this grouping of global physicians, nurses, and other medical professionals unanimously updated its Statement on Nuclear Weapons originally adopted in 1998 and amended in 2008, requesting that all National Medical Associations take extensive steps to educate their publics and governments about the incredibly horrendous, species-threatening health impacts of nuclear conflict and “to join the WMA in supporting this Declaration and to urge their respective governments to work to ban and eliminate nuclear weapons.”  Comments:  A plethora of scientific papers, conferences, and symposia over the last several decades on the humanitarian consequences of nuclear war have concluded that even a relatively small number of thermonuclear explosions can almost entirely negate reasonable medical responses, even for a large, wealthy nation such as the United States.  This represents yet another reason why nuclear weapons must be abolished.  (Source:  “The Growing Threat of Nuclear War and the Role of the Health Community.”  World Medical Journal, Vol. 62, No. 3, October 3, 2016.  http://lab.arstubiedriba.lv/WMJ/vol62/3-october-2016/slides/slide-7.jpg accessed Sept. 22, 2017.)

    October 18, 1998America’s Defense Monitor, a half-hour documentary PBS-TV series that premiered in 1987, released a new film, “Can We Learn to Live Without Nuclear Weapons,” produced by The Center for Defense Information, a non-partisan, nonprofit organization and independent monitor of the Pentagon, founded in 1972, whose board of directors and staff included retired military officers (Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll, Jr.), former U.S. government officials (Philip Coyle, who served as assistant secretary of defense), and civilian experts (Dr. Bruce Blair, a former U.S. Air Force nuclear missile launch control officer).  The chief issue addressed in this episode was, “Must the world continue to rely on nuclear deterrence for stability and security or should nuclear weapons be abolished altogether, and if so, how?”  Most of the prominent experts interviewed for the film, including David Krieger, the President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation; Senator Alan Cranston (Retired), President of the Gorbachev USA Foundation; Admiral Noel Gaylor, former Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, USN (Retired); and Paul Warnke, Assistant Secretary of Defense, 1967-69, and Chief U.S. Arms Control negotiator, 1977-78, argued for the elimination of global nuclear arsenals.

    October 21-22, 2008 – At the “Cyber War, Cyber Terrorism, and Cyber Espionage” IT Security Conference held in Fargo, North Dakota, many threats were contemplated, hypothesized, and projected but at least one real world nuclear threat was reported.  At least two independent sources corroborated this story.  One is Ron Rosenbaum’s 2011 book “How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III” and the other is a paper by Professor Joe St Sauver which specifically quotes long-time nuclear expert Dr. Bruce Blair.  “Blair cites one scary example:  the discovery of an unprotected electronic backdoor into the naval broadcast communications network used to transmit launch orders by radio to the U.S. Trident deterrent submarine fleet.  Unauthorized persons including terrorists might have been able to seize electronic control of shore-based radio transmitters … and actually inject a (nuclear) launch order into the network.  The deficiency was taken so seriously that new launch order validation protocols had to be devised, and Trident crews had to undergo special training to learn them.”  Comments: Cyber security and anti-hacking protocols, especially to prevent unauthorized access to nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, should be the focus of a strong internationally binding set of agreements among all the world’s nations, especially the nine nuclear weapons states. (Sources:  Ron Rosenbaum.  “How the End Begins:  The Road to a Nuclear World War III.” New York:  Simon & Schuster, 2011, p. 109 and Professor Joe St Sauver.  “Cyber War, Cyber Terrorism, and Cyber Espionage:  Report of IT Security Conference held Oct. 21-22, 2008 in Fargo, ND https://www.stsauver.com/~joe/cyberwar/cyberwar.pdf accessed Sept. 22, 2017.)

    October 23-27, 2017 – The Fourth International Conference on Nuclear Power Plant Life Management, organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency in coordination with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and the Electric Power Research Institute, will be held on these dates in Lyon, France (the nation with the greatest percentage of electricity generated by nuclear power).  This meeting will allegedly build on three previous conferences on the same subject held in Budapest in 2002, Shanghai in 2007, and Salt Lake City in 2012 with the aim to address, “the management of the safe, cost-effective operation of the world’s fleet of (civilian) nuclear power plants (NPPs) which are on average 20 years old even though the design life of such plants is typically 30-40 years or more.”  Comments:  While it may seem prudent for nuclear engineers and plant operation professionals to exchange essential information and procedures that might mitigate, lessen, or even prevent nuclear disasters like Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima and many other such incidents, it is more likely that such conferences are chiefly designed to persuade the public that nuclear plant operations are routine, economical, safe, and a critical alternative to dirty fossil fuel power plants.  Wrong on all four counts!  For instance, solar, wind, and geothermal energy systems have proven, especially in the last few years, much more economically feasible and competitive than nuclear power plants.  Then there is the nuclear industry mantra that nuclear energy is “zero carbon electricity,” and that there are no global warming impacts from nuclear power generation, which represents an elaborate delusion.  Zero carbon?  This is technically true during the thirty years or longer that a nuclear plant is operating, but patently wrong when we recognize the huge carbon signature of nuclear power plants during their entire life cycle.  Significant greenhouse emissions are the result of mining, transporting, processing, and mitigating harmful environmental impacts before uranium fuel is loaded into a reactor.  Then there are the emissions resulting from the construction and maintenance of large nuclear complexes including waste removal, sequestration, and very long-term storage (potentially requiring thousands or even tens of thousands of years), not to mention decommissioning, decontaminating, and restoring a nuclear site to the public commons. The nuclear industrial complex also fails to factor into the equation the long-term environmental and public health costs as well as the terrorist attack or blackmail threat and the dangerous risk of nuclear proliferation when considering the creation, operation, and decommissioning of a nuclear power plant.  (Sources:  International Atomic Energy Agency. http://www.pub.iaea.org/iaeameeting/50811/Fourth-International-Conference-On-Nuclear-Power-Plant-Life-Management, The Institute for Energy and Environmental Research. http://ieer.org, and The Helen Caldicott Foundation. http://helencaldicottfoundation.org/ accessed Sept. 25, 2017.)

  • Open Letter to Members of the U.S. Congress: Act to Prevent Nuclear Catastrophe

    To add your name to this Open Letter, click here.

    This may be the most dangerous time in human history.  The Roman emperor Nero is remembered for having fiddled while Rome burned.  We may be witnessing the far more dangerous Nuclear Age equivalent to Nero’s fiddling in the form of the nuclear threat exchanges between Donald Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.

    The U.S. has elected a man to its highest office who is erratic, impulsive, thin-skinned and generally imprudent and insufficiently informed on nuclear and foreign policy issues.  As president, he possesses unrestricted authority to threaten and use the weapons of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, which could lead not only to the destruction of our country but to dire consequences for the entire world.

    The president has already caused widespread national and global alarm by his behavior in office, including his participation in a dangerous and irrational escalation of threats directed at the erratic leader of nuclear-armed North Korea, which if executed would produce a monstrous catastrophe of untold consequences.  James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence, a normally cautious civil servant, has described the president’s behavior as “downright scary and disturbing.”

    There are currently no restraints on the president’s ability to use the insanely powerful weapons in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, including using them in a first-strike attack rationalized as preventive war.  To allow this set of conditions to persist would be a perilous, perhaps fatal, abdication of Congressional responsibility, posing severe dangers to the peace and security of the country and world.

    What can be done?

    Having shown himself to be unfit for office, the president should be impeached and removed from office by the Congress as a matter of most urgent priority, or possibly removed from the presidency by recourse to procedures under the 25th amendment.

    Congress should also independently act to put unconditional restraints on any president’s ability to threaten or order a nuclear first-strike.  One approach would be enactment of the “Restricting First Use of Nuclear Weapons Act,” introduced by Senator Ed Markey and Representative Ted Lieu, which would prohibit the president from initiating a first-strike nuclear attack without a Congressional declaration of war expressly authorizing such strike.  We would urge even stronger legislation that would make illegal any U.S. nuclear first strike and threats to do so.

    We do not suggest that the Markey-Lieu legislation would cure a nuclear first-strike of its essential immorality and illegality under international law.  This legislation would, however, broaden the long-standing, dangerously centralized U.S. decision-making authority over a nuclear first-strike and could lead to a U.S. commitment never again to use nuclear weapons except in retaliation against a nuclear attack.

    While this proposed legislative initiative on first-strikes is a responsible effort to limit  presidential authority with respect to nuclear weapons under present conditions, we urge a parallel framework of restraint with respect to any contemplated threat or use of nuclear weapons by a U.S. president.  Additional legislation to this end needs to be proposed and enacted by Congress after appropriate vetting through hearings and public discussion as a matter of supreme national interest and for the benefit of global security.

    Furthermore, we would hope that in due course the United States would join with the majority of countries in the world in supporting the recently negotiated UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

  • Nuclear Close Calls

    Below is a series of close calls, or “broken arrows,” where nuclear weapons were misplaced, stolen, damaged, or even detonated. Many of these incidents resulted in casualties, including of innocent civilians, and many others nearly led to nuclear war. These close calls emphasize the lack of proper security for nuclear weapons, and the lack of training and overall competence of militaries and leaders who possess nuclear weapons. There have been far more incidents than those listed here, and likely many that militaries and world leaders withhold as classified. 

    Note about ranking incidents:
    1- Very slight alarm, quickly resolved. There are countless issues of this severity level which occur all the time. For the purposes of this compilation, issues of low severity are not cited.
    2- More serious incident with general risk, quickly resolved.
    3- Specific, serious risk possibly leading to escalation with other state. Causes severe damage, but may be self-contained, only affecting the military personnel and property directly involved. Requires more complex resolution.
    4- Serious risk to wider public; has potential to cause widespread casualties and damage beyond military personnel and property, or to cause escalation in conflict.
    5- Nuclear devices detonate and cause casualties, or confrontation nearly leads to the use of nuclear devices.

     

    November 10, 1950—Plane accidentally drops nuclear weapon
    American plane in Canada, Severity: 4
    A B-50 bomber experiencing mechanical failure drops its Mark 4 atomic bomb over Quebec. Its conventional explosives detonate when it lands in a river, scattering nearly 100 pounds of uranium.

    March 10, 1956—Plane carrying nuclear weapons disappears
    United States, Severity: 3
    A B-47 carrying two types of nuclear capsules from Florida to a base overseas loses contact over the Mediterranean, and is never found.

    July 27, 1956—Plane crashes into bomb storage
    American base in United Kingdom, Severity: 3
    A B-47 bomber skids off the runway on landing and rips into a storage igloo containing Mark 6 atomic bombs before exploding. The bombs do not detonate.

    November 5, 1956—False alarm of Soviet attack
    United States, Soviet Union, United Kingdom, and France, Severity: 3
    British and French forces are attacking Egypt over the Suez Canal, and the Soviet government proposes to the U.S. that they combine non-nuclear forces to halt the attack. While considering this option, U.S. defense forces receive word of what seems to be a Soviet invasion: unidentified aircraft are flying over Turkey, Soviet MIGs are flying over Syria, a British bomber has been shot down over Syria, and the Soviet fleet is moving through the Dardanelles in northwestern Turkey. The American military fears that this might trigger a NATO nuclear strike against the U.S.S.R. All four signs of invasion are later disproven by various unrelated events: the unidentified aircraft were actually a flight of swans, the MIGs were a routine air force escort for the Syrian president as he returned from Moscow, the British bomber was forced down for mechanical reasons, and the Soviet fleet was engaging in routine exercises.

    January 31, 1958—Plane fire with nuclear weapon dropped
    American base in Morocco, Severity: 3
    A B-47 bomber armed with a Mark 36 hydrogen bomb on a Strategic Air Command base in Morocco blows a tire on the runway, which starts a fire that gradually engulfs the plane. The explosives in the bomb burn but do not detonate, melting the plane and bomb into an 8,000 pound block of radioactive metal.

    February 5, 1958—Plane collision drops nuclear weapon
    United States, Severity: 3
    A B-47 bomber collides with another plane over Savannah, Georgia. In order to safely land the damaged bomber, its nuclear bomb is dropped over water. While the nuclear capsule was not in the bomb at the time and therefore did not detonate, the bomb was never found.

    March 11, 1958—Bomb accidentally dropped
    United States, Severity: 4
    A B-47 bomber accidentally drops a Mark 6 atomic bomb into a family’s backyard in Mars Bluff, South Carolina. The nuclear core of the bomb is stored elsewhere in the plane and is therefore not dropped, but the conventional explosives of the bomb wreck the family’s home and injure all six family members.

    November 4, 1958—Plane crash with nuclear weapons on board
    United States, Severity: 3
    A B-47 bomber carrying a Mark 39 hydrogen bomb crashes into a field near Abilene, Texas. Conventional explosives in the bomb detonate, but the nuclear core does not.

    October 15, 1959—Plane collision with nuclear weapons on board
    United States, Severity: 4
    A B-52 bomber carrying two atomic bombs over Hardinsberg, Kentucky collides with an aircraft refueling it at an altitude of 32,000 feet. The crash kills eight crew members and partially burns one of the weapons, although no nuclear material is released.

    October 5, 1960—False alarm suggests attack
    American base in Greenland, Severity: 3
    Radar at the Thule Air Base in Greenland detects dozens of nuclear missiles launched from the Soviet Union towards the United States. The American military begins measures for high alert, but suspects something is wrong, considering that Khrushchev is visiting New York. It turns out radar had misinterpreted a moonrise over Norway.

    January 19, 1961—Plane crash with nuclear weapons on board
    United States, Severity: 3
    A B-52 bomber carrying one or more nuclear weapons explodes over Monticello, Utah due to mechanical failure. Five crewmen are killed, but there is no evidence that the nuclear weapons detonated.

    January 24, 1961—Plane crash drops bombs
    United States, Severity: 4
    A nuclear-armed bomber flying over North Carolina loses a wing, dropping two nuclear bombs into Goldsboro, NC. One of the bombs breaks apart on impact due to a failed parachute, although the nuclear core does not detonate. The other bomb lands unharmed, but five of its six safety devices fail. A nuclear explosion was avoided “by the slightest margin of chance,” as Defense Secretary Robert McNamara described it.

    November 24, 1961—Communications failure suggests enemy attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    Communication between Strategic Air Command (SAC) HQ and three ballistic missile early warning sites goes silent. Considering this a possible sign of enemy attack, all SAC bases in the United States are alerted, and B-52 bombers await orders for takeoff. It is later determined that all communications between SAC and these sites ran through one relay station in Colorado, where the lines went down after a motor overheated.

    August 23, 1962—Navigational error into Soviet airspace
    United States, Severity: 3
    A nuclear-armed B-52 bomber conducting routine surveillance over Alaska makes a navigational error that leads it to within 300 miles of an interceptor base in Soviet airspace. Due to the high likelihood of repeating such an error, Strategic Air Command creates a less provocative route, but fails to officially change it in time—meaning that throughout the Cuban Missile Crisis, the same faulty route was flown 24 hours a day.

    October 1962
    Throughout the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, miscommunications due to the chaotic nature of the issue at hand as well as sheer carelessness led to multiple near-nuclear confrontations.

    Miscommunication possibly signals attack
    United States and European allies, Severity: 3
    When the U.S. orders DEFCON 3 for American forces, the Supreme Commander of NATO decides not to put NATO under the same alert to avoid provoking the U.S.S.R. Several lower-ranking NATO commanders, however, place their individual NATO bases across West Germany, Italy, Turkey, and the U.K. on DEFCON 3 alert, due to miscommunication. Soviet intelligence easily could have interpreted this as a signal of imminent attack.

    Prolonged exercise possibly signals attack
    United Kingdom, Severity: 3
    When the U.S. orders DEFCON 2 on October 24, the British Air Force is carrying out an unrelated exercise. The British exercise is prolonged as the Cuban Missile Crisis heats up, and British nuclear forces are put on high alert, meaning they could launch in 15 minutes. The Soviets easily could have interpreted these separate actions by the U.S. and the U.K. to be coordinated preparations for war.

    October 24, 1962—Satellite explosion misinterpreted as attack
    Soviet Union, Severity: 3
    In the middle of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a Soviet satellite explodes after entering orbit, leading the U.S. to believe that the U.S.S.R is launching an ICBM attack. The American military’s reaction to this event, and how confrontation did not ensue, is still unknown as relevant records remain classified.

    October 25, 1962—False alarm of sabotage almost leads to attack
    United States, Severity: 4
    Late in the evening, a guard at the Duluth Sector Direction Center sees a figure climbing the security fence. He activates the “sabotage alarm,” which sets off alarms at all bases in the area. At a Wisconsin base, a faulty alarm orders nuclear-armed F-106A interceptor planes to take off. Due to the sudden nature of the warning, the F-106A pilots assume World War III has started. The aircraft are stopped as they are taxiing down the runway; the intruder in Duluth was determined to be a bear.

    October 26, 1962—Unannounced missile test possibly signals attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    As tensions between the USSR and the U.S. heighten, DEFCON 3 is ordered and all ICBMs at Vandenberg Air Force Base are fitted with nuclear warheads—except one Titan missile, which is scheduled for a test later that week. The test occurs on the 26th, which potentially causes significant panic in the Soviet Union: it likely knew that the U.S. had fitted its missiles with nuclear warheads, but not that this was only a test launch.

    October 26, 1962—Unannounced missile test causes false alarm of attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    During the Cuban Missile Crisis, radar warning stations that are still under construction are brought online as quickly as possible, which leads to miscommunications and repeated false alarms. One example is the unannounced testing of a Titan II-ICBM off the coast of Florida, which causes one new radar warning station to nearly sound the alarm for nuclear attack.

    October 26, 1962—Nuclear missile left alone with launch codes
    United States, Severity: 3
    As DEFCON 2 is declared, Minuteman I missiles at Malmstrom Air Force Base are hastily prepared for full deployment. At one point on the 26th, all launch-enabling equipment and codes are placed in a silo alongside the corresponding missile. Had there been a miscommunication or desire for sabotage, a single operator could have singlehandedly launched a nuclear-armed missile.

    October 27, 1962
    October 27 is now commonly referred to as “Black Saturday” as it was the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, when both the United States and the Soviet Union came close to initiating nuclear attack multiple times.

    Cruise missiles pointed at the United States
    Soviet base in Cuba, Severity: 4
    In the early morning of October 27, the Soviets deploy nuclear cruise missiles in firing position to within 15 miles of the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay. The U.S. remains completely unaware.

    Wartime radio frequencies signal war
    Soviet Union, Severity: 4
    In the Soviet Union, Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces fuel a series of nuclear-armed ICBMs that can be launched at a moment’s notice. Wireless communication between divisions of the Soviet military and the Strategic Rocket Forces are transferred to wartime frequencies—effectively signifying to the ICBM command post that war has begun.

    Spy plane enters Soviet air space
    United States, Severity: 4
    Meanwhile, an American U2 spy plane enters Soviet air space, attracting the attention of Soviet MIG interceptors, which are ordered to shoot the plane down. American fighter planes loaded with nuclear missiles and ordered to shoot at their own discretion are sent to escort the U2 plane back to American ground.

    Spy plane shot down over Cuba
    United States, Severity: 5
    On the same day, another U2 spy plane is shot down over Cuba. American leaders had previously agreed that they would interpret the shooting of any of their planes as deliberate escalation from the Soviets, and would automatically launch an attack in response. After the plane is shot down, the U.S. decides against attacking right away. It later comes to light that Khrushchev followed similar reasoning, ordering Soviet troops in Cuba not to shoot any American planes for fear of retaliation. The shooting of the U2 was ordered by a junior commander acting in his own authority.

    Submarine almost launches nuclear torpedo
    Soviet Union, Severity: 5
    Perhaps most seriously, eleven U.S. Navy destroyers and aircraft carrier U.S.S. Randolph corner a nuclear-armed Soviet submarine near Cuba. The temperature onboard the submarine rises to high enough temperatures that machinery short-circuits. The U.S. begins hitting the submarine with small depth charges and, unable to contact Moscow, the submarine crew questions whether war has begun. Authorized to launch nuclear torpedoes without express permission from Moscow, two of the three submarine officers onboard vote to launch. The third officer, Vasili Arkhipov, refuses to authorize the launch. Had any other officer been in Arkhipov’s place—whether one who agreed with the two other officers, or one who was more easily pressured by the other officers to authorize the launch—nuclear war likely would have occurred.

    October 28, 1962—Misplaced simulation tape interpreted as attack
    United States, Severity: 4
    Moorestown, New Jersey radar operators inform the national command post that a nuclear attack is under way. In reality, a test tape simulating an attack from Cuba is running on radar machinery just as a satellite comes over the horizon, simulating an incoming Soviet missile. Crisis is averted when the supposed missile does not detonate as predicted, but this incident illustrates the dangerously poor communication that plagued the Cuban Missile Crisis: the radar post that should have informed the Moorestown post of the incoming satellite had been reassigned to different work.

    October 28, 1962—False alarm and miscommunication suggest missile attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    The Laredo radar warning site has just become operational, and mistakes an orbiting satellite as two missiles flying over Georgia. The national command post misidentifies the warning as coming from the more reliable Moorestown post rather than Laredo, and begins preparing to intercept the incoming missiles. The issue is quietly resolved without incident, despite Moorestown failing to intervene and contradict the false warning.

    November 2, 1962—Captured secret agent gives false alarm of nuclear attack
    United Kingdom, Severity: 4
    Soviet intelligence officer Oleg Penkovsky, working as a double-agent for the CIA and MI6, is caught in Moscow and arrested in October. Penkovsky had been given a secret code to warn the U.S. and the U.K. if the Soviet Union was planning a nuclear attack, which consisted of two phone calls one minute apart, uttering just three short breaths each time. On this day in November, Penkovsky calls the MI6 station in Moscow and gives the code. The MI6 officer who receives it assumes that Penkovsky has been captured, and does not warn London or Washington of an incoming attack, and thereby prevents a pre-emptive strike.

    November 9, 1965—Alarm failure announces nuclear attack
    United States, Severity: 2
    Special bomb alarms are installed near military facilities and cities across the U.S. so that the locations of nuclear explosions can be quickly transmitted before expected communications failures. The alarms normally display green, but display yellow due to operational issues unrelated to a nuclear explosion, and red in the event of a nuclear explosion. During a massive commercial power failure across the Northeast in November 1965, two alarms in different cities display red rather than yellow, announcing a nuclear attack. The Command Center of the Office of Emergency Planning goes on full alert until the power failure is identified.

    December 5, 1965—Plane falls off aircraft carrier
    American plane over the Pacific Ocean, Severity: 3
    A bomber carrying a nuclear weapon rolls off the deck of the U.S.S. Ticonderoga into the ocean. Pilot, plane, and weapon are never found.

    January 17, 1966—Plane collision spews radioactive material
    American plane in Spain, Severity: 4
    A B-52 bomber collides with a plane refueling it mid-air, while carrying four nuclear weapons each more powerful than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Two bombs are recovered intact, while the conventional explosives in the other two detonate, spewing radiation into the surrounding countryside of Palomares, Spain. Seven crew members are killed in the crash, and American military crew brought in to clean up after the crash show high rates of radiation-related illnesses today. Spanish people from the area also contracted cancer and other illnesses at higher rates, and sections of Palomares remain highly radioactive today.

    May 23, 1967—Communications failure suggests nuclear attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    Multiple early warning radar sites around the world go offline, leading the U.S. to again fear that the Soviets have disabled American radar in the first stage of a nuclear attack. Nuclear bombers prepare to take flight until it is determined that a solar flare knocked out the radar systems.

    January 21, 1968—Plane crash spews radioactive material
    American base in Greenland, Severity: 4
    An American B-52 bomber carrying four hydrogen bombs crashes near Thule Air Base in Greenland, after the crew abandons the plane due to a cabin fire. One crew member dies as the plane crashes into sea ice, causing all four bombs to detonate and radioactive material to be spewed into the ocean. Despite extensive damage, none of the four bombs detonate fully due to flaws in this particular bomb design. Had the plane hit Thule Air Base, American Strategic Air Command would likely have assumed attack and retaliated.

    April 11, 1968—Nuclear submarine sinks
    Soviet submarine in Pacific Ocean, Severity: 3
    A Soviet submarine carrying three nuclear-armed ballistic missiles and numerous nuclear torpedoes sinks about 750 miles north of Oahu. Part of the submarine was later salvaged by the CIA.

    November 15, 1969—American and Soviet submarines collide
    Barents Sea, Severity: 4
    American nuclear submarine Gato collides with a Soviet K-19 nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea, just off the northern coast of Russia, severely damaging the K-19.

    October 24-25, 1973—False alarm signals nuclear attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    With the Arab-Israeli war in force, the U.S. orders DEFCON 3 on October 24 as a warning signal to the U.S.S.R. to not intervene in the conflict. On October 25, while under DEFCON 3, mechanics repairing a plane at a base in Michigan accidentally activate the entire base alarm system, sending nuclear-armed B-52 bombers into preparing for takeoff. The alarm is repaired before any B-52s depart.

    August 1, 1974—Unfit president holds power to launch nuclear attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    In his last weeks in office during the Watergate Crisis, Nixon is depressed, drinking heavily, and extremely unstable. U.S. Secretary of Defense James R. Schlesinger instructs the Joint Chiefs of Staff to run any emergency order the president may enact through him first. In Nixon’s impaired state, he could easily have ordered a nuclear launch.

    November 9, 1979—False alarm nearly leads to nuclear strike
    United States, Severity: 4
    President Carter’s National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, receives a phone call at 3 a.m. by his military assistant adviser General William Odom, announcing that 2200 Soviet missiles have been launched at the United States. President Carter has less than ten minutes to order retaliation. Just as Brzezinski is about to call the president, Odom calls again to say it was a false alarm: someone mistakenly placed military exercise tapes in the operational missile detection computer system.

    March 15, 1980—Training exercise interpreted as attack
    United States, Severity: 2
    As part of a training exercise, the Soviet Union launches four submarine-based missiles. American early warning sensors suggest one of the missiles is actually headed towards the United States, and military officials convene to assess the threat before it naturally resolves itself.

    June 3 & 6, 1980—Faulty computer chip announces missile attack
    United States, Severity: 3
    A faulty chip in American military computers causes warning displays to announce that multiple Soviet missiles have been launched toward the United States. On both days, B-52 bomber crews and missiles are nearly sent out in retaliation, before personnel determine that the missile numbers the computers are displaying are illogical.

    September 18, 1980—Fire at a nuclear missile silo
    United States, Severity: 4
    A missile repairman doing routine maintenance on the Titan II ICBM silo in Damascus, Arkansas drops a wrench from the repair platform, which falls 70 feet and pierces the side of a missile, causing thousands of gallons of highly flammable rocket fuel to pour into the silo. The Titan II ICBM was the largest missile the U.S. ever built—about the size of a ten-story building, and mounted with the most powerful nuclear warhead the U.S. had ever put on a missile. The fuel explodes, killing an airman, and catapults the warhead out of the silo. Its safety mechanisms perform correctly, and the warhead does not detonate.

    September 26, 1983—Radar malfunction warns of missile attack
    Soviet Union, Severity: 3
    The Soviet Oko nuclear early warning system detects five nuclear-armed missiles launched from the U.S., heading toward Moscow. The Soviet soldier on duty, Stanislav Petrov, suspects an Oko malfunction rather than a real attack, and does not call for a retaliatory Soviet strike. Petrov is correct: Oko malfunctioned, and a nuclear attack is averted.

    November 2-11, 1983—NATO military exercise interpreted as attack
    Soviet Union, Severity: 4
    NATO enacts a ten-day exercise codenamed Able Archer 83 involving a hypothetical war with the Soviet bloc, which is set to end in the fictional launching of nuclear weapons. Moscow mistakes the exercise for real preparations, and believes NATO is about to conduct a surprise nuclear attack. Nuclear-armed Soviet bombers in East Germany and Poland are placed on alert, with pilots in the cockpit awaiting orders. The U.S.S.R’s 300 nuclear-armed ICBMS—its most powerful weapons—are stationed for immediate launch. Moscow contacts its Warsaw Pact allies, warning them that war is imminent and that Soviet ballistic submarines are assembling in firing positions off the coast of the U.S. The decisions of a couple of prudent individuals prevent conflict—namely a concerned KGB double agent who convinces the Reagan administration to reach out diplomatically to the U.S.S.R, and an American military intelligence officer who refuses to raise the American DEFCON alert level and further arouse Soviet suspicion. Tensions decrease, although Soviet forces remain on high alert until the exercise concludes on November 11.

    January 10, 1984—Malfunction causes nuclear-armed missile to almost launch
    United States, Severity: 3
    A nuclear-armed Minuteman III missile in a silo on the Nebraska-Wyoming border begins giving off false signals suggesting that it is about to launch. While the Air Force later insisted that multiple technical safeguards would have prevented the missile from launching, it still parked an armored car on top of the silo doors to keep the missile in place, raising concerns about these safeguards.

    August 19-21, 1991—Coup leaders confiscate nuclear briefcases
    Soviet Union, Severity: 4
    An attempted coup in the Soviet Union causes President Mikhail Gorbachev to lose possession of his nuclear briefcase and the launch authorization codes that it contains, after the case was confiscated by one of the coup leaders. The two other nuclear briefcases are also in possession of coup leaders until Gorbachev reclaims control.

    January 25, 1995—Scientific rocket launch interpreted as nuclear missile
    Russia, Severity: 4
    Russian early warning radar detects a scientific rocket launch off the coast of Norway (which the U.S. had informed Russia about beforehand), and mistakenly identifies it as an American submarine-launched ballistic missile. Russian nuclear forces jump to full alert, with President Boris Yeltsin retrieving the nuclear launch codes and preparing for a retaliatory launch. Russian satellites monitoring American missile fields prove that the missile is not headed for Russia, and a strike is called off.

    May-June, 1999—Conflict almost includes nuclear weapons
    India and Pakistan, Severity: 5
    The Kargil crisis is one of the few instances of direct confrontation between two nuclear-armed states, when India and Pakistan clashed over the disputed Kashmir region. Pakistani troops and militants are found in Indian territory, leading the Indian Air Force to bomb Pakistani bases in Kargil. The incident escalates until both sides threaten to use nuclear weapons. The crisis is temporarily defused by mediation from President Clinton.

    December 2001-October 2002—Conflict almost includes nuclear weapons
    Pakistan, Severity: 3
    Conflict over the Kashmir region flares up again, as President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan refuses to rule out first use of nuclear weapons as India had already done publicly. The conflict is resolved when U.S. Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage releases a pledge Musharraf made to the U.S. to seek negotiations with India.

    August 2006—Nuclear missile fuses accidentally shipped to Taiwan
    United States, Severity: 2
    The U.S. Defense Department mistakenly ships secret nuclear fuses for Minuteman III missiles to Taiwan, where the boxes sit unattended to for eighteen months, before Air Force officials acknowledge their error.

    August 29-30, 2007—Nuclear missiles accidentally loaded onto plane
    United States, Severity: 3
    By ignoring required protocol for checking for live weapons, six nuclear-armed cruise missiles are mistakenly loaded onto a B-52 bomber at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota. The plane sits on the tarmac all night, unguarded, then flies 1500 miles to a base in Louisiana where it sits unguarded for another nine hours until maintenance crews recognize the weapons are live. For a total of 36 hours, the Air Force did not realize that six nuclear weapons were missing.

    May 23, 2008—Fire in missile silo burns unnoticed
    United States, Severity: 4
    A fire breaks out in a silo in Wyoming containing a Minuteman III missile and burns until it runs out of fuel, only discovered five days later when maintenance crews are alerted to cable connectivity problems.

    October 23, 2010—Communications failure leads to lost contact with nuclear missiles
    United States, Severity: 2
    A launch control center at Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming loses contact with 50 Minuteman III ICBMs carrying nuclear warheads for 45 minutes. With the rockets off-line, the launch center would have been unable to detect or cancel any unauthorized launch attempts. This incident could have been caused—and could easily be recreated—by hackers from a rogue or terrorist group.

    July 28, 2012—Activists break into top-secret uranium production plant
    United States, Severity: 3
    Three activists, including an 84-year-old nun, break into the Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tennessee and splash human blood on a building in which weapons-grade uranium is processed. The trio roams undetected at the facility for over two hours, suggesting a troubling lack of security measures at one of the most dangerous facilities in the U.S.

    August 5, 2014—Nuclear power plant sabotaged
    Belgium, Severity: 4
    A still unidentified individual drains 65,000 liters of lubricant from a turbine used to produce electricity in the Belgian Doel 4 nuclear power plant. No penetration to the plant is detected, leading investigators to suspect this was an inside job. This event calls attention not only to Belgium’s poor security practices at its nuclear power plants—it did not arm its power plant guards until after the 2016 Brussels terrorist attacks—but also to the potential for nuclear terrorism. In 2012, two workers from the same Doel 4 plant left Belgium to fight for ISIS in Syria.

     

     

     

    Bibliography

    Accidental Nuclear War: A Timeline of Close Calls,” Future of Life Institute.

    Alan Phillips, “20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War,” Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, January 15, 1998.

    Alex Shephard, Melville House, “Here’s a List of Every Time Someone Lost Control of Their Nukes,” Business Insider, May 23, 2013.

    Associated Press, “Armored Car Use to Block Missile Told,” LA Times, October 29, 1987.

    Close Calls With Nuclear Weapons,” Union of Concerned Scientists, April 2015.

    Eric Schlosser, “Accidents will happen: an excerpt from ‘Command and Control,’” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 3, 2014.

    Graham Allison and William H. Tobey, “Could There Be a Terrorist Fukushima?New York Times, April 4, 2016.

    Jess Sleight, “5 Frightening Nuclear Weapons Close Calls,” Global Zero, October 30, 2015.

    Josh Harkinson, “That Time We Almost Nuked North Carolina,” Mother Jones, November 10, 2014.

    Max Tegmark, “The Top 10 Reasons to Reduce the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War,” Huffington Post, February 26, 2016.

    Michael Krepon, “Broken Arrows,” Arms Control Wonk, December 26, 2011.

    Nate Jones, “Document Friday: False Warning of a ‘Nuclear Missile Attack on the United States,” NSA Archive, March 2, 2012.

    Neil Denny, “Interview: Eric Schlosser’s Command and Control,” Little Atoms, January 17, 2016.

    Patrick Tucker, “Risk of ‘Accidental’ Nuclear War Growing, UN Research Group Says,” Defense One, April 19, 2017.

    Ramesh Thakur, “The Eight Deadly Nuclear Sins,” Australian Institute of International Affairs, February 25, 2016.

    Twelve Times We Came ‘Too Close for Comfort’ Using Nuclear Weapons,” Chatham House, July 18, 2016.

    Valery Yarynich, “On the brink of the abyss in the Urals,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October 25, 2012.

    Warfare History Network, “In 1983, A NATO Military Exercise Almost Started a Nuclear World War III,” National Interest, June 11, 2017.