Category: Nuclear Threat

  • This Fall in Nuclear Threat History

    October 5, 1991 – In response to President George H. W. Bush’s September 27th proposal to remove all land-based tactical nuclear weapons from U.S. overseas bases and all of its sea-based tactical nuclear weapons from U.S. ships, submarines, and aircraft, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, who won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1990, escalated nuclear disarmament despite the opposition of some prominent military officers in calling for:  a stand down of all strategic bombers then on day-to-day alert status and the storage of their nuclear weapons, a stand down of 503 ICBMs including 134 MIRVed (multiple warhead) missiles, a halt to the buildup of launch facilities for rail-based ICBMs while also terminating their modernization programs and returning them to their basing facilities, and a commitment to discontinue development of a small mobile ICBM and of short-range attack missiles for heavy bombers.  Furthermore, he also proposed broader nuclear disarmament proposals that both sides might agree to by calling for deep cuts in strategic nuclear forces, the withdrawal of airborne tactical nuclear weapons, along with ground-based and sea-based weapons, a moratorium on nuclear testing with a promise by both sides to ratify a comprehensive test ban, a moratorium on the production of fissionable materials and a global commitment to a mutual no first-use policy.  Comments: Just 12 weeks later, the Soviet Union disbanded and peoples of the world rejoiced that the Cold War was over and that a new Peace Dividend might usher in a new era in international relations, but despite high hopes this substantially did not happen.  Subsequent U.S. presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama renewed bilateral arms control treaties with the Russians (until Trump irrationally set out to scuttle bilateral and multilateral nuclear arms control) and President Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize for advocating the elimination of nuclear weapons, however the military-industrial complexes in America, Russia, and in other nuclear weapons states lobbied to convince their voting populations erroneously that nuclear deterrence had kept the peace, stabilized world relations, and would prevent any nuclear conflict.  Today the nine nuclear weapons states and their allies continue to waste trillions of dollars on conventional and nuclear weapons modernization amidst a new and more dangerous Cold War II arms race. (Sources: Burns H. Weston. “Towards Post-Cold War Global Security: A Legal Perspective” Booklet 32 Waging Peace Series: Annual Quentin-Baxter Memorial Lecture. Wellington, New Zealand, March 25, 1992. Nuclear Age Peace Foundation,  Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors. “Arms Control Chronology.” Washington, DC: Center for Defense Information, 2002, pp. 34-35, and National Security Archive. “Unilateral U.S. Nuclear Pullback in 1991 Matched by Soviet Cuts.” September 30, 2016, http://www.nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault-russia-programs/2016-09-30/unilateral-us-nuclear accessed August 1, 2020.) 

    October 8, 2018 – On this date an insider Congressional newspaper The Hill published an opinion piece by the founder of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, David Krieger, titled, “Hacking Nuclear Weapons is a Global Threat.”  The article pointed out that in addition to the four “m’s” – words that describe how a nuclear attack could be initiated, malice, madness, mistake, and miscalculation, another frightening possibility could be nuclear conflict caused or precipitated due to cyberattacks on an enemy’s nuclear command and control or launch systems.  This penetration by hackers of cyber security walls was referred to as “manipulation.” Dr. Krieger provided a terrifying real world example of the hacking of nuclear weapons by mentioning a Royal Institute of International Affairs research study that noted, “As an example of what is possible, the U.S. is reported to have infiltrated parts of North Korea’s missile systems and caused test failures. Recent cases of cyber attacks indicate that nuclear weapons systems could also be subject to interference, hacking, and sabotage through the use of malware or viruses which could inflict digital components of a system at any time.  Minuteman silos, for example, are believed to be particularly vulnerable to cyberattacks.”  The author hit the proverbial nail on the head by concluding that, “The problem with nuclear deterrence is that it cannot be made effective and the potential for breaching the cybersecurity of nuclear arsenals only adds to the vulnerabilities and dangers…(therefore)…The only meaningful response to nuclear weapons is to stigmatize, delegitimize, and ban them.”

    October 15-16, 2004 – The preeminent medical expert on the nuclear threat, Dr. Helen Caldicott, President of the Nuclear Policy Research Institute, joined prominent voices like David Lochbaum of the Union of Concerned Scientists, Oscar Shirani, a nuclear industry whistleblower, Dr. Arjun Makijani, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research and others who spoke at a Nuclear Policy Research Institute Symposium “Nuclear Power and Children’s Health: What You Can Do” at the St. Scholastica Academy in Chicago, Illinois. Specific and detailed evidence of harmful environmental and health effects, especially those impacting children, was presented at the symposium.  Presenters addressed critical topics such as the dangers of nuclear power plants and the threat of terrorist targeting of these facilities, the hidden economic, environmental, and health costs of nuclear energy, advice on how to protect people from exposure to nuclear materials, how to address the conundrum of nuclear waste removal and sequestration including the risks of the transport and permanent disposal of nuclear waste, the incredibly unwise practice of recycling nuclear materials into household goods and an investigation into non-nuclear alternative energy sources like solar, wind, geothermal, and other safer technologies.  Comments: Unfortunately, too many Americans and other populations living in the dozens of nations  that unwisely utilize nuclear energy for electricity and/or are building a new generation of more dangerous and destabilizing nuclear weapons (thanks in part to President Trump’s commitment to help build nuclear plants throughout the Middle East) don’t seem to care or are completely ignorant about the tremendous dangers of the resulting radioactive contamination of the air, land, water supplies, other species and our own frail bodies, especially the impact on the most vulnerable – infants, children, and the elderly. Even more objectionable is the fact that the wealthiest and most politically powerful leaders of these nations, including the United States, purposely avoid building nuclear power and weapons production plants in or near the sequestered, gated communities that they call home, preferring instead to impose the toxic legacies of nuclear technologies on the poor, racial and ethnic minorities, and the politically disenfranchised or at least under enfranchised masses of their populations.  It’s way past time to end the nuclear threat and eliminate this unequal treatment of a large segment of the global population! 

    November 3, 2020 – In the most critically important election in not only U.S. history but possibly in the future history of global civilization, Americans will decide for the first time ever whether to reelect a president who had been impeached.  But the reasons why Trump must be defeated rise infinitely above the fact he was impeached to matters that involve the survival of not only American democracy but of the human species – the threat he poses to the future.  In this calendar year alone, his tragic mishandling of the Corona virus COVID-19 pandemic, due in large part to his extremely dangerous anti-intellectual and anti-science mentality, was one of the worst series of mistakes a U.S. president has ever made.  He not only caused tens of thousands more Americans to die than would have died if he had acted swiftly two weeks or more before he actually did take significant but still error-filled action (accepting World Health Organization test kits instead of waiting longer for what turned out to be flawed American COVID19 test kits that previously Trump claimed were “the greatest”), but his misjudgments also triggered the worst economic downturn in the last 100 years and the first large-scale trade war since the 1930s!  His continued frivolous and reckless rhetoric during those months led hundreds if not thousands of Americans to try outlandishly unhealthy ways to combat the virus including recommending citizenry ingest disinfectants or take an antimalarial drug that hadn’t been cleared by the FDA. On May 24, 2020 the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the efforts of Trump and his Republican Congressional leaders to blame China for the Coronavirus Pandemic is pushing U.S.-Chinese relations to “the brink of a new Cold War.” Later during the mostly peaceful protests (although rioting and looting did occur in a number of U.S. cities) over the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police officers, he pulled a page from the autocratic handbook in utilizing the 1807 Insurrection Act to justify his illegal and unconstitutional use of active-duty military troops and even prison guards to respond to the protests with an extreme show of force and oftentimes unreasonable use of violence.  Also around this same time period, Trump, in search of any and every way to blowup bilateral and multilateral nuclear arms control, decided in May that the U.S. should withdraw from the 2002 Open Skies Treaty, signed by nearly three dozen nations, that allowed the nuclear powers to prevent “nuclear breakout’ by allowing aircraft to overfly any participating power’s nuclear weapons test and research facilities.  Combine his unstable mental state – he has been diagnosed by dozens of mental health professionals as manifesting malignant narcissism and experiencing frontal lobe dementia – with his unprecedented and frightening belief system (“Why can’t we use nuclear weapons?”) and his history of lies, deception, and angry threatening rhetoric towards other leaders, nations, and ethnic groupings and the equation yields the greatest chance in American and world history of his triggering a nuclear conflict.  It could begin simply by this president utilizing a very low yield nuclear weapon to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure which could very well be the trip wire for other nations joining America’s precedence of utilizing nuclear weapons in combat for the first time since 1945 and thereby starting a slow chain of escalation that after weeks, months, or even years results in a larger scale nuclear war somewhere in the world, with the U.S. as a likely participant.  This would likely lead to a global nuclear winter caused by hundreds or thousands of warheads being detonated in a day or so precipitating the injection of horrendously large amounts of dust, debris, and firestorm remnants into the upper atmosphere blotting out the sun and triggering a global agricultural failure that will kill billions more than the hundreds of millions killed in the initial nuclear explosions of the war.  This could reasonably result in the end of civilization and even the eventual demise of the human species and countless other life forms on this planet.  In addition to this penultimate threat to the human race, if he somehow avoids nuclear war, he could nevertheless follow-through on his threats to wage a conventional war on either Iran or North Korea which could further destabilize the world economy and expand the ongoing perpetual war indefinitely.  And over the ensuing decades this would actually make nuclear or other WMD war more likely over the longer term.  In the short term, his unprecedented destruction of a number of nuclear and space arms control treaties, negotiated by past Republican and Democratic presidents and approved by bipartisan votes by Senators in both parties, especially his likely failure to renew the Moscow Treaty of 2011, also known as the New START Treaty by the deadline of February 5, 2021, make nuclear and even conventional war more likely (also, Trump’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty of 1987 reintroduces into the world a race to build thousands of nonnuclear intermediate range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, some of which will carry nuclear warheads).  In 2016, Dr. Bruce G. Blair (1947-2020), a widely respected decades-long authority on nuclear command and control issues, argued that Donald Trump lacked the “responsibility, composure, competence, empathy, and diplomatic skill” to keep nuclear deterrence from failing “by intent, accident or miscalculation.” Yet another reason to defeat Trump is to circumvent a likely space war that again he helped set the stage for by his disregard for the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and his creation for the first time ever of a U.S. warfighting space force (as opposed to the existing U.S. Air Force focus on using space as a reconnaissance platform and early warning medium to help prevent nuclear war).  These actions have spurred Russia, China and other powerful nations to begin or greatly accelerate their own preparations for space warfare, which includes the building of “rods from God” or the reemergence of old Soviet FOBS – orbital weapons that could be used to strike with hyper speed at Earth targets.  Again this could also trigger a nuclear or WMD conflict that kills billions.  Even if humanity avoids nuclear conflict during future space wars, the penultimate result of such wars will be an exponential increase in the existing problem of creating many more millions of pieces of space debris.  This could likely result in a situation where launches of any space vehicles from satellites to manned craft might become impossible, causing humanity to lose its ability to live, work, and travel in outer space or even utilize space assets for the many benefits such technology has provided our species for many decades including weather forecasting.  This scenario might also make interception or deflection of an incoming asteroid or comet virtually impossible to achieve, dooming our species and countless others to a mass extinction event sometime in the next several decades.  Trump’s denial of global climate change and the growing impact of fossil fuel exploitation in accelerating global warming is another top reason why he must be defeated.  Climate change is obviously a longer term threat than nuclear war but just as important.  If it isn’t addressed and won’t be in Trump’s second term, violent weather, rising oceans, and growing geopolitical stability (that even Trump’s Pentagon admits will only get worse in the coming years) will result with many more millions suffering and thousands more dying over the next four years as a result of the president’s stubborn refusal to accept scientific consensus that something critical needs to be done to address this crisis.  A Green New Deal and a changed U.S. commitment to negotiate and follow through unilaterally on greenhouse gas reductions in this decade must be accomplished, something which the president unwisely considers as unnecessary and harmful to economic growth. There are many other paramount reasons why Donald Trump must be defeated in this 2020 election, but of course protection of our centuries old democratic values (specifically those in The Bill of Rights in particular and the U.S. Constitution in more general terms) and the rule of law including long-held U.S. recognition of the tenets of international law, are also worth mentioning.  Recently Trump began to lay the groundwork to create doubts about the upcoming November 3rd election result with his unproven attacks on voting-by-mail and his purposeful appointment of a Postmaster General that he has tasked to slow down mail delivery and make it less efficient in order to undermine confidence in American voting during this COVID-19 pandemic, making it perhaps more likely he will dispute the result of the election.  But the entire list of reasons why Trump must go is too long to address in this article. (Sources:  Gayle Spinazze. “Press Release: It is Now 100 Seconds to Midnight.” The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. https://www.thebulletin.org/2020/01/press-release-it-is-now-100-seconds-to-midnight/ 

    Dr. Bandy X. Lee. “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 37 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess A President.” New York: Thomas Dunne Books, 2019, Anonymous (Senior Trump Administration Official) “A Warning.” New York: Twelve Books, 2019, Mary L. Trump. “Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created The World’s Most Dangerous Man.” New York: Simon & Schuster, 2020, David Cay Johnston. “It’s Even Worse Than You Think: What the Trump Administration Is Doing to America.” New York: Simon & Schuster, 2018, “Bruce Blair, Crusader for Nuclear Arms Control, Dies at 72.” New York Times, July 24, 2020, http://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/bruce-blair-dead.html and other resources too numerous to cite.) 

    November 13, 1974 – Karen Silkwood, a 28-year old laboratory analyst-technician and head of the steering committee of the Crescent, Oklahoma chapter of the Oil, Chemical and Atomic Workers Union, who worked at one of Kerr-McGee Corporation’s ten civilian plutonium production plants in that state, died mysteriously when her automobile skidded 270 feet off Highway 74 and hit a concrete culvert.  Initially ruled an accident by a local law enforcement agency, subsequently investigators discovered a significant dent in the rear bumper of her Honda automobile and other prima facie evidence of foul play – another automobile forcing her car off the road.  That night Silkwood, portrayed by Academy Award-winning actress Meryl Streep in the 1983 film directed by Mike Nichols, was carrying a thick manila folder with evidence of negligent and possibly intentional worksite abuses resulting in the unsafe management and operation of the plant that included criminal negligence in the manufacturing of fuel rods at the Kerr-McGee plant in Crescent.  Examples of the abuses include unreported spills and leaks of radioactive products that contaminated workers, employees sent into dangerous plutonium production cycle work without adequate safety training, and radioactive storage containers left open and unattended for several days.  After visiting her union’s headquarters in Washington, DC, she was tasked with gathering evidence in order to prosecute management officials involved in the abuses.  It seems probable though that management wanted to avoid prosecution and the possible shutdown of its firm’s entire production enterprise by at first trying to scare off Silkwood, then later by arranging an accident to shut her up.  When Kerr-McGee’s own inspectors allegedly found no contamination at the plant, Silkwood became suspicious and had them bring Geiger counters to her apartment. Significant quantities of highly toxic plutonium (a mere millionth of a gram of this substance can induce cancer in a laboratory animal) were found in her refrigerator as well as at many other locations at her residence.  The night she died, her union colleagues suspected that she was carrying a folder of evidence against Kerr-McGee to New York Times reporter David Burnham.  After the fatal accident, a state trooper who was at the crash site mentioned seeing dozens of loose papers scattered in the mud near Silkwood’s Honda which he said he put back in the car.  But no folders or papers were ever recovered.  Years later, a number of journalists and pro bono investigators interviewed other employees at the plant, despite threats of losing their jobs, and pieced together evidence found in the archives of the Atomic Energy Commission (since renamed the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) in Washington, DC.  In 1979, after the longest trial in Oklahoma history, Kerr-McGee was ordered to pay Silkwood’s family punitive damages.  While that judgment would later be reversed upon appeal, the case was finally settled out of court.  Comments:  This incident and countless others not only in the U.S. civilian nuclear power industry but in many other nations, along with the Three Mile Island nuclear accident near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania on March 28, 1979, helped convince the American public that nuclear power, then and now, is but another dangerous short- and long-term nuclear threat (along with the production of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons) to our species and certainly not a safe, viable, or even economical alternative to coal and fossil fuel-caused climate change. (Source:  “The Death of Karen Silkwood: An Investigation Into the Fate of A Whistle-Blower Uncovered the Dangers of the Nuclear Power Industry.”  Fifty Years of Rolling Stone. New York: Harry N. Abrams, May 16, 2017 along with mainstream and other alternative media sources.) 

    November 16, 22, 2015 – On these two dates and on many occasions in the last several decades, U.S. military forces used depleted uranium-tipped munitions against military, and most probably unintended civilian, targets in numerous military engagements America has been involved in.  On the specific dates mentioned above, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesman Major Josh Jacques informed the publication Foreign Policy that U.S. Air Force A-10 Warthog fixed-wing aircraft shot 5,265 armor-piercing 30 millimeter rounds containing depleted uranium (DU) to destroy over 300 Islamic State vehicles in Syria’s eastern desert which were transporting illegal oil that the Islamic State (or ISIS) was attempting to profit from.  This admission contradicted a March 2015 statement by John Moore, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State, that DU would not be used in Iraq or Syria during Operation Inherent Resolve.  The use by U.S. military forces of depleted uranium munitions deployed on a number of ground and air platforms date back to the First Gulf War (1991), the U.S.-NATO bombing campaign in the Balkans and Kosovo in the 1990s and in the U.S. War in Iraq (2003 – ) and probably in other unconfirmed theatres of conflict as recently as this past year.  Since these weapons were first introduced in the 1970s, DU has been used at least hundreds of thousands of times by American military units.  Comments:  Despite long-time assurances by U.S. military and even some scientific authorities that DU has little or no radioactive toxic-related impact, many credible international medical and scientific establishments vigorously disagree.  One of many examples of this are statements made after scientific investigations were conducted by the Montreal-based Centre for Research on Globalization which concluded that, “It (DU) has been suspected as the culprit in lung and kidney illnesses because it is soluble in water and can be ingested as a fine dust through inhalation.”  A United Nations report authored in 2014 said that the Iraqi government considers U.S. use of DU in the 2003 war and beyond, “a danger to human beings and the environment.”  The International Coalition to Ban Uranium Weapons said that the areas in Syria contaminated by DU in 2015 (and February 2017 and possibly later) “pose a risk to civilian health and must be isolated and addressed as soon as conditions allow.” The obvious concern about contamination of civilian populations in these war zones should also be extended to the health and well-being of U.S. and allied ground forces stationed in war theatres where DU has been used in the past and present.  DU use is considered one of the confirmed reasons for the existence of the medical condition classified as ‘Gulf War Syndrome.’ Therefore, it is not surprising that a growing number of global scientific, medical civilian and even military authorities have pushed for and are continuing to lobby for the abolition of the use of such unconscionable weaponry as depleted uranium munitions. (Sources: A variety of mainstream and alternative news sites.) 

    December 1-8, 1986 – According to a May 29, 2012 National Security Archive (located at the campus of George Washington University in Washington, DC) Electronic Briefing Book No. 380 titled, “Mighty Derringer,” the U.S. government’s concern that nuclear terrorism was a realistic possibility caused the Department of Energy to stage a secret exercise on these dates by its Nuclear Emergency Support Search Teams (NEST) with assistance from the U.S. Delta Force military secret operations unit. The exercise involved conducting an expedited search of the city of Indianapolis for a hypothetical improvised nuclear device (IND) constructed and deployed by a terrorist cell from the fictional nation of Montrev.  But, the realistic exercise concluded with an explosion of the IND which hypothetically destroyed 20 square blocks of the downtown center of Indianapolis.  Comments: The growing possibility of nuclear terrorism in a world where a renewed nuclear arms race has been embraced by the U.S. president and other leaders of the nuclear weapons states is yet another reason for global citizenry to demand an end to the incredibly dangerous game of Nuclear Roulette.  It’s time to stop and reverse this anachronistic nuclear war game before humanity suffers a fatal blow.  The 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is a good starting point along with other global components including a Fissile Materials Production Moratorium, a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty ratified by all nations particularly the United States, and the planned elimination of all nuclear weapons by 2030. 

    December 9-12, 2019The Washington Post published a potential blockbuster series of articles titled, “The Afghanistan Papers – A Secret History of the War” starting with the December 9th article by Craig Whitlock, “At War With The Truth.”  The authoritative series, which included quotes from key decision makers and U.S. military and political leaders, was described as a confidential trove of Pentagon and U.S. government documents revealing that senior officials failed to tell the truth about the eighteen year old endless war, and that these trusted strategists and politicians purposefully made overly optimistic assessments about U.S. progress in the war and the rebuilding of Afghanistan that they knew to be false while hiding overwhelming evidence that the conflict was unwinnable.  According to objective sources like the U.S. Congressional Research Service and the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, the results of the Afghan War have been very deadly as about 150,000 civilians, soldiers, aid workers, and contractors have died including over 6,300 Americans.  Also. although the mainstream news media has always harped on how to afford Medicare for All and progressive health care plans, it rarely mentions that the wars the U.S. has fought since 2001 have cost over six trillion dollars (according to The Cost of War Project).  Comments:  This series reminds us all of the words inscribed on the façade of the U.S. National Archives, “The Past is Prologue,” because nearly 50 years ago, Daniel Ellsberg’s Pentagon Papers, published in The New York Times, revealed similar findings about the Vietnam conflict.  Unfortunately while it appears the Pentagon Papers helped fuel further American popular opposition to U.S. involvement in Vietnam, it seems unlikely that the Afghan Papers will have as powerful a role.  This relates to the fact that President Trump was at the same time as these revelations facing impeachment and before the mainstream and even alternative media could reiterate and follow-up on the article series, attention was diverted by Trump’s unprecedented, illegal, and unconstitutional breach of power in his assassination of a high Iranian military official Major General Qassem Soleimani in a January 3, 2020 drone strike near the Baghdad Airport. In retaliation, the Iranians launched two dozen ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Iraq, which fortunately did not result in loss of life. These events triggered an international war scare as both Trump and Iran’s leadership traded rhetoric threats including the U.S. president’s extremely horrific tweet indicating that he might attack 52 cultural and religious sites in Iran in retaliation for the taking of 52 U.S. hostages in November of 1979.  The tension was possibly the worse since Trump took office but thankfully within days the threat of U.S.-Iran full-scale war was apparently reduced.  However, the Trump administration’s ratcheting up of the use of military force, which began on Day One of this presidency, in a number of theaters including a significant, mostly unpublicized number of drone strikes, has flown under the radar as mainstream media has focused increasingly on other issues, legitimately on the COVID-19 pandemic crisis and the resulting U.S. deaths (which was worsened by Trump’s delayed response to the Coronavirus), the Black Lives Matter protests, the 2020 election, and impeachment, but also a number of insignificant “entertainment” news items rather than returning to the paramount issue of America’s endless war in Afghanistan and the counterproductive, ever-growing Global War on Terrorism. (Sources including mainstream and alternative news media sites and Sonali Kolhatkar. “Afghan Papers Confirm That The Longest War Is A Lie.” Dec. 13, 2019, Truthdig. http://www.commondreams.org/Views/2019/12/13/afghanistan-papers-confirm-longest-war-lie and Neta C. Crawford.  “Costs of War: Human Cost of the Post-9/11 Wars: Lethality and the Need for Transparency.” Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University. Nov. 2018 http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2018/Human%20Costs%2C%20Nov%202018%20CoW.pdf accessed January 15, 2020.) 

  • Civil Society Statement for the International Day Against Nuclear Tests

    Civil Society Statement for the International Day Against Nuclear Tests

    Selina N. Leem delivered this statement on behalf of NAPF at the UN General Assembly’s event to commemorate the International Day Against Nuclear Tests on August 26, 2020.

    President of the UN General Assembly, Delegates, and Distinguished Guests,

    As a child, seeing two of my baby cousins, nuclear babies born with defects and only a few days to live, taking their last breath left me a sea of anger. The injustice.

    As my aunt painted the crouching lady, curled into herself, her head held low, mourning one too many times for bodies her own gave and a war took. Her tears followed the pool of despair from 1946. This is my family’s legacy.

    The US only recognizes four of our islands as being contaminated from nuclear tests: Enewetak, Rongelap, Utrik, Bikini. Take the first letter of each name and you get ERUB- the Marshallese word for broken, destroyed. An only apt description of how we were treated and left. It’s been 74 years since my fellow Bikinians left their home island for “the good of mankind and to end all world wars”- words by Commodore Ben H. Wyatt of the United States’ military. Except our people were already good. World wars? We were not involved in one. We were brought into two.

    Delegates,

    My people, our islands were sacrificed for ‘the good of mankind and to end all world wars.’ 75 years have passed, and I have failed to see that accomplished. It WAS NOT for the end of the world my people left, it was for all of you, myself, and my generation and the future generations after me.

    Delegates,

    The international community adopted the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1996, but it has still not entered into force, due to a lack of support amongst certain states. A certain nuclear weapon state is even considering the resumption of nuclear testing.

    The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was adopted in 2017 and will soon enter into force. The nuclear ban treaty not only seeks the total abolition of nuclear weapons, including nuclear testing, but also requires, for the first time, international cooperation to assist victims of nuclear testing and help remediate contaminated environments. The ban treaty has the support of the vast majority of the world’s states but faces opposition from those few who continue to profit from a system, where a few states wield the power to destroy humanity. I applaud those 44 states that have so far ratified the nuclear ban treaty — the small island state of St. Kitts and Nevis was the most recent, earlier this month — as well as those 84 states that have so far signed the treaty-our event chair, herself, signed the ban treaty yesterday on behalf of Malta. And I urge the rest of the world to swiftly join this treaty also.

    We simply cannot wait for certain states to create an environment for nuclear disarmament. Ne reba kon malon, konej malon? If they tell you to drown, are you to follow suit? It is past time for us to abolish nuclear weapons.

    Survivors are demanding action! No one should live in fear. Everyone should embrace the TPNW, the international legal instrument that prohibits nuclear weapons. Sign and ratify.

    No more Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Enewetak, Rongelap, Utrik, Bikini!

    “For the good of mankind and to end all world wars.”

    Komool tata. Thank you.

  • This Summer in Nuclear Threat History

    July 1, 2019 – Julian Borger’s article in The Guardian, “U.S. Arms Control Office Critically Understaffed Under Trump, Experts Say,” two and a half years into the Trump Administration, reinforced for the umpteenth time what many mainstream and alternative media outlets had been reporting since January 2017, that Trump haphazardly and against all logic is attempting to permanently demolish established governmental administration while also minimizing and privatizing the U.S. federal system, which includes drastically deemphasizing diplomacy while enhancing military power.  Another example is David Atkins Nov. 12, 2017 article, “Trump and Tillerson Are Gutting the State Department – For No Good Reason,” in the Washington Monthly, which noted that cuts to the entire State Department of nearly 2,000 full-time professionals was just the tip of the iceberg.  Atkins’ story hit the nail on the head by remarking that, “And why? Because Donald Trump promised to ‘drain the swamp’ and level massive cuts across all non-defense departments without the foggiest clue what they do or why?”   But more recently, Borger’s article published on this date noted that a U.S. State Department office, The Office of Strategic Stability and Deterrence Affairs, a repository of decades-long expertise and institutional knowledge on the critical matter of bilateral and multilateral arms control which has long been tasked with negotiating and implementing nuclear disarmament treaties (resulting in cuts in global nuclear weapons levels from 70,000 to 14,000 warheads in the last 50 years), has been cut from 14 staffers at the start of the Trump Administration to four. What’s more under neo-con extremist National Security Advisor John Bolton (who, like an incredible number of Trump appointees, resigned or was fired in September of 2019) arms control focus shifted irrationally to appealing to non-nuclear states to “come up with measures to modify the security environment to reduce incentives for states to retain, acquire, or increase their holdings of nuclear weapons.”  Comments: The danger now realized under Trump, according to experts like former Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Frank Rose and many others inside and outside government, is that the State Department in no longer equipped to pursue arms negotiations to attempt to salvage the last domino that Trump is trying to knock off the board – the New START or Moscow Treaty which expires in February of 2021. In 2019, Vladimir Putin noted that Russia was in favor of a New START extension, but warned that time was running out, “If we do not begin talks now, it would be over because there would be no time even for formalities.”  Unfortunately this now seems likely as back in 2009-11 under President Obama, a strong supporter of nuclear arms control, it took 21 months from the start of negotiation to ratification for New START to take effect.  This represents just another of a plethora of highly paramount reasons why Donald Trump must not have a second term as President.  (Sources:  A variety of both mainstream and alternative news media sources.)

    July 16, 1945 – In the first-ever test of what Manhattan Project scientists referred to as the “Gadget”, a fission bomb designed as a plutonium implosion device, was detonated before dawn at the Alamogordo Bombing and Gunnery Range, 230 miles south of the town of Los Alamos, New Mexico in a remote area of the Jornada Desert.  The code name of the test, Trinity, was created by the Director of the Los Alamos Laboratory, J. Robert Oppenheimer – it was a reference to a poem by John Donne.  President Truman’s personal journal of July 25 recorded that, “We have discovered the most terrible bomb in the history of the world…An experiment in the New Mexico desert…caused the complete disintegration of a steel tower 60 feet high, created a crater six feet deep and 1,200 feet in diameter, knocked down a steel tower half a mile away and knocked down men 10,000 yards away.  The explosion was visible for more than 200 miles and audible for 40 miles and more.”  Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson’s report to the president noted that, “I estimate that the energy generated to be in excess of the equivalent of 15,000 to 20,000 tons of TNT…there were tremendous blast effects…there was a lighting effect within a radius of 20 miles equal to several suns in midday; a huge ball of fire was formed which lasted for several seconds.  This ball mushroomed and rose to a height of over 10,000 feet.”   Physicist Ernest O. Lawrence, an eyewitness to the blast, described his experience of a, “gigantic ball of fire rising rapidly from the earth…The grand, indeed almost cataclysmic proportion of the explosion produced a kind of solemnity in everyone’s behavior immediately afterwards.  There was a restrained applause, but more a hushed murmuring bordering on reverence in manner as the event was commented upon…”  The “Gadget,” which exploded with an estimated force of 15-20 kilotons, slightly more than the Hiroshima bomb, was a rehearsal for the August 6-9 atomic bombings of two Japanese cities and it represented the first of 1,030 nuclear tests conducted by the United States and one of over 2,050 such tests conducted by the nine Nuclear Weapons Club members in the last 75 years.   Before the blast, a wager was made by Manhattan Project scientist Enrico Fermi that the explosion would ignite the atmosphere and devastate New Mexico and possibly the whole of the planet’s biosphere.  Thankfully, Fermi lost his wager.  But that vision of deadly apocalypse came true for hundreds of thousands of people in the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6th and 9th who were vaporized, burned to death, blown into objects and buildings at horrific speed, lacerated, mutilated, and irradiated.  They suffered and some continue to suffer today from the unconscionable use of fission weapons on civilian noncombatants.  Comments:  While many U.S. military and scientific observers celebrated the beginning of the Nuclear Age, others realized that this event may have represented the beginning of the end of the human species.  (Sources:  Jeffrey Mason, Scriptwriter.  “Legacy of Hiroshima.” America’s Defense Monitor. Howard University Television and other PBS stations nationwide first broadcast on August 6, 1995; Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information, 2002, pp. 5, 24; Gar Alperovitz.  “The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb: And the Architecture of An American Myth.”  New York:  Alfred A. Knopf, 1995, pp. 250-251 and “Trinity Test – 1945.” Atomic Heritage Foundation.  June 18, 2014.  http://www.atomicheritage.org/history/Trinity-Test-1945 accessed March 30, 2020.)

    July 26, 1963 – A day after long-time diplomat and septuagenarian W. Averell Harriman, serving as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (drafted quietly by President Kennedy to single-handedly negotiate a treaty with the Soviets without working through hardliner national security channels of the CIA and Pentagon who in JFK’s first year in office proposed to him a highly confidential plan for a preemptive nuclear first strike on the Soviet Union), put his initials as JFK’s representative on the Limited Test Ban Treaty in Moscow on July 25, President Kennedy gave a surprise television address announcing the unprecedented first substantial nuclear arms treaty.  The 35th President announced on this date, “I speak to you tonight in a spirit of hope. Yesterday a shaft of light cut into the darkness.  Negotiations were concluded in Moscow on a treaty to ban all nuclear tests in the atmosphere, in outer space, and under water…But the achievement of this goal is not a victory for one side – it is a victory for mankind. A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step.”  And equally important was Nikita Khrushchev’s role in recognizing that he and Kennedy almost stumbled into a nuclear World War III nine months earlier during the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.  The Soviet premier quickly circumvented hardliner opposition of his own and signed the treaty on August 5.  Despite vociferous right-wing and conservative criticism, the treaty was unexpectedly ratified on September 24, 1963 by the U.S. Senate in large part due to JFK’s embrace of a large-scale publicity and Congressional lobbying campaign for the treaty by Norman Cousins and the Citizens’ Committee for a Nuclear Test Ban.  Comments: It is a criminal travesty that the U.S. and Russia, Trump, Putin and other nuclear powers today have taken serious steps to unravel this and other critically important nuclear arms control treaties despite widespread global opposition to a renewed Cold War and nuclear arms race.  (Sources:  Lawrence S. Wittner. “Looking Back: Norman Cousins and the Limited Test Ban Treaty of 1963.” Arms Control Today. December 2012 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2012-12/looking-back-norman-cousins-limited-test-ban-treaty-1963 and Peter Janney. “Mary’s Mosiac: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder JFK, Mary Pinchot Meyer and Their Vision for World Peace.” New York: Skyhorse Publishing, Inc., 2012, pp. 262-274.)

    August 6, 1945 – Colonel Paul Warfield Tibbets piloted the 509th Composite Group’s B-29 Superfortress bomber named Enola Gay, in honor of the pilot’s mother, from Tinian in the Marianas chain of Pacific Ocean islands to Hiroshima, Japan where the enriched uranium-fueled fission bomb code named “Little Boy” was dropped over a city of a quarter million inhabitants at 8:15:17 a.m. local time.  43 seconds after release and 1,850 feet over the city, the bomb exploded (with a yield estimated to be 12-15 kilotons) registering an air temperature, for a fleeting millisecond of 100 million degrees.  In the city below, 5,400 degree temperatures vaporized thousands of human beings, melted granite, clay roof tiles, and gravestone mica for three-quarters of a mile in all directions from the explosion’s epicenter.  A blast wave of 1,100 feet-per-second blew down everyone and everything left standing that was not previously destroyed by the tremendous heat of the explosion.  The firestorm from the blast, as a result of a huge displacement of air, began to flow back to the epicenter at up to 200 miles-per-hour raising radioactive dust and debris into a mushroom cloud.  78,150 died, 13,983 were missing, and 37,425 injured as an immediate result of the blast.  But tens of thousands more would die of horrendous burns and associated direct radiation impacts within days and weeks and from longer-term radiation-caused cancers for decades afterward.  Two days later, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan and launched a massive invasion of Manchuria and on August 9th hundreds of thousands more Japanese suffered a second atomic bombing (with a yield estimated to be 21 kilotons), from the plutonium-fueled “Fat Man” warhead, at Nagasaki.  Before the bombings, General and later President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, voiced misgivings about the use of these weapons against Japan, “It wasn’t necessary to hit them with that awful thing…”  More than two and a half months before the nuclear attacks, Leo Szilard and two other Manhattan Project scientists reported that Secretary of State James F. Byrnes, “did not argue that it was necessary to use the bomb against the cities of Japan in order to win the war…Mr. Byrnes’ view was that our possessing and demonstrating the bomb will make Russia more manageable in Europe.”   A few years after the bombings, Admiral William D. Leahy, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and previously chief of staff to President Roosevelt (1942-45) and President Truman (1945-49) publicly stated, “It is my opinion that the use of this barbarous weapon at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was of no material assistance in our war against Japan.  The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender…in being the first to use it, we had adopted an ethical standard common to the barbarians of the Dark Ages…wars cannot be won by destroying women and children.”  (Sources:  Craig Nelson.  “The Age of Radiance:  The Epic Rise and Dramatic Fall of the Atomic Era.”  New York:  Scribner, 2014, pp. 211-220 and Gar Alperovitz.   “The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb:  And the Architecture of An American Myth.”  New York:  Alfred A. Knopf, 1995, pp. 3-6, 15, 672.)

    August 7, 1938 – Dr. Helen Caldicott, the world’s foremost medical expert on the humanitarian impact of nuclear war and nuclear power, was born on this date in Melbourne, Australia. Also popularly identified as the single most articulate and passionate advocate of action by global citizenry to address the twin threats to humanity of nuclear war and climate change, the subtitle of her first of many books, “Nuclear Madness,” (1978, reissued as a 1980 paperback) says it all about her penultimate concerns – “The Choice Is Yours: A Safe Future Or No Future At All.”  Dr. Caldicott received her medical degree from the University of Adelaide Medical School in 1961, moved to Boston in 1966 where she became an instructor of pediatrics at Harvard medical School and served on the staff of the Children’s Medical Center there until she resigned in 1980 to work full-time on the prevention of nuclear war. Since then her more than four decades commitment to antinuclear and climate change causes has been unwavering.  Even with her busy schedule while working full-time in Boston, she became a citizens’ lobbyist convincing Australia to file lawsuits in 1971-72 against the French government for their nuclear testing in the South Pacific. In 1975, Dr. Caldicott worked with Australian trade unions to educate their members about the medical dangers of the nuclear fuel cycle, with a particular focus on uranium mining. While living in the United States from 1977 to 1986, she reignited the flame of antinuclear sentiment in a nonprofit group of more than 23,000 doctors – Physicians for Social Responsibility, which went on to play a prominent role in the Nuclear Freeze Movement.  In 1982, Dr. Caldicott also founded the Women’s Action for Nuclear Disarmament (WAND) in the U.S.  Travelling extensively abroad, she helped start other allied nonprofits or governmental medical organizations which led her international umbrella group (International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War) to win a Nobel Peace Prize in 1985. Her long-time global perspective led her to remark in 1982 that, “As a doctor as well as a mother and a world citizen, I wish to practice the ultimate form of preventive medicine by ridding the Earth of these technologies that propagate disease, suffering, and death.” Dr. Caldicott was one of the most prominent medical and scientific minds to recognize on a very timely basis the significance of the December 1983 TTAPS study that warned that the discharge of even a small portion of nuclear arsenals could trigger nuclear winter and not only the destruction of global civilization but possibly the end of our species and countless others on this planet.  Returning to her native Australia in 1987, she ran for the Federal Parliament but ultimately lost the election by the slimmest of margins, a mere 600 votes.  After moving back to the United States in 1995, she lectured at the New School for Social Research, hosted a talk show on WBAI in New York and founded Standing for Truth About Radiation (STAR) on Long Island.  The winner of many prizes and awards for her work including the Lannan Foundation’s 2003 Prize for Cultural Freedom, she also has earned over 20 honorary doctoral degrees and was named by The Smithsonian Institution and Ladies Home Journal as one of the most influential women of the 20th century.  In 2001 she established the U.S.-based Nuclear Policy Research Institute (NPRI) which eventually became Beyond Nuclear.  She has been the subject of several films including “Eight Minutes to Midnight,” which was nominated for an Academy Award in 1981, “If You Love This Planet,” which won an Academy Award in 1982 for Best Documentary, and the 2004 award-winning film “Helen’s War: Portrait of a Dissident.”  From 2010 to 2013, Dr. Caldicott hosted If You Love This Planet, a weekly radio that aired on many community and public radio stations internationally.  Currently, she is President of The Helen CaldicottFoundation/NuclearFreePlanet.org which organizes and runs symposiums and other educational programs to inform the public and media on the dangers of nuclear power and nuclear weapons and promote her foundation’s long-term goal of a nuclear-energy-free and weapons-free, renewable energy-powered world.  During a March 30, 2011 debate on the U.S.-based program Democracy Now, the world’s leading spokesperson for the antinuclear movement succinctly laid out the terrifying threat that every single individual on Earth is subject to because of our species’ illogical and irrational acceptance of nuclear deterrence and nuclear power as necessary and unchangeable paradigms, “If you inhale a millionth of a gram of plutonium (half-life: 24,000 years), the surrounding cells receive a very, very high dose.  Most die within that area, because it’s an alpha emitter.  The cells on the periphery remain viable. They mutate, and the regulatory genes are damaged.  Years later, that person develops cancer.  Now, that’s true for radioactive iodine that goes to the thyroid; cesium-137, that goes to the brain and muscles; strontium-90 goes to the bone, causing bone cancer and leukemia.”  Dr. Calicott’s life-long mission to prevent the unthinkable has successfully resonated with millions of global citizenry who have acted on her words and will continue to fight against these insane doomsday weapons and the stark threat they represent, “The massive quantities of radiation that would be released in a war fought with nuclear weapons might, over time, cause such great changes in the human gene pool that following generations might not be recognizable as human beings.”  (Sources: “Helen Caldicott Biography.” http://www.faqs.org/health/bios/59/Helen-Caldicott.html, “Helen Caldicott, M.D.” http://www.helencaldicott.com/about/

    Helen Caldicott. “How Nuclear Apologists Mislead the World Over Radiation” The Guardian. April 11, 2011, http://www.theguardian.com/environmental/2011/apr/11/nuclear-apologist-radiation which were all accessed April 10, 2020 and other mainstream and alternative media sources.)

    September 3, 2017 – North Korea conducted its sixth and most recent nuclear test, which they claimed was a hydrogen or fusion bomb but many global experts speculated the bomb was a boosted fission bomb, with a magnitude estimated by various international authorities including U.S. intelligence officials to be in the range of 70 to 280 kilotons, approximately four and a half to 18 times as powerful as the bomb dropped by the U.S. on Hiroshima in 1945.  The test, North Korea’s most powerful nuclear blast, took place over a kilometer underground at the Punggye-ri Test Site on this date.  Comments:  The testing of over 2,050 nuclear devices over the last seven decades by the nine nuclear weapons states has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations especially native peoples and hundreds of thousands of military “participants.”  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people today due to nuclear testing.  So despite the few tests it has undertaken, North Korea along with the other eight nuclear weapons states faces legitimate international criticism for its role in adding to the global total of nuclear weapons tests.  But of course, the response to North Korea’s actions must be measured and wielded through the medium of diplomacy.  Such is not the case with the U.S. response to these tests and North Korea’s status as a relatively new nuclear power.  President Donald Trump, whose nuclear saber-rattling has included unprecedented rhetorical threats to use the U.S. nuclear arsenal to destroy entire nations and their populations, went on Twitter to condemn the North Koreans, “Their words and actions continue to be very hostile and dangerous to the United States.”  But consistent with the historical precedent that has seen the U.S. only avoid regime change for Third World challengers to its hegemony in cases where those nations possess nuclear weapons, no military intervention was undertaken (although nuclear threats were made both before and during the Trump administration) against Kim Jong Un’s regime in retaliation for its January 10, 2003 withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its subsequent development of these weapons of mass destruction.  And while President Trump did meet personally with the North Korean ruler three times, at the Singapore Summit in June 2018, in Vietnam in February 2019, and at the DMZ separating North and South Korea in late June 2019, there has not been any significant progress in formally ending the seventy year old Korean conflict and denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.  While some would say that Trump has made more progress with North Korea than recent presidents, his overall disregard and rejection of a plethora of successful bilateral and multilateral nuclear arms control treaties (including the New START or Moscow Treaty which will expire in February of 2021) combined with his numerous destabilizing and irrational public statements that see nuclear weapons, especially lower yield ones, as legitimate and useful parts of U.S. military power make him too dangerous to continue as U.S. commander-in-chief.  It is clear from a wide range of both conservative and progressive governmental and independent global scholars and military experts that the risk of nuclear war has increased significantly since 45 took office.  Hopefully, his actions in mismanaging the U.S. response to the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, his impeachment, the economic downturn, and his general incompetence and political inexperience (as revealed by one of his own top-level administration officials) along with the unprecedented nuclear threat he represents will result in the election of a 46th President on November 3, 2020.  (Sources:  Padraig Collins. “North Korea Nuclear Test: What We Know So Far.” The Guardian. September 3, 2017 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/03/north-korea-nuclear-test-what-we-know-so-far, Josh Lederman and Hans Nichols. “Trump Meets Kim Jung Un, Becomes First Sitting U.S. President to Step Into North Korea.” NBC News. June 30, 2019, Anonymous. “A Warning: A Senior Trump Administration Official.” 2019 book and other mainstream and alternative news media sources.)

    September 15, 1980 – On this date a B-52H bomber (as part of the U.S. Strategic Air Command’s commitment to have nuclear-armed aircraft fueled and ready to go at any hour of the day according to its ‘alert status’ to launch nuclear strikes against the Soviet Union or Soviet bloc nations including China), manned by a crew of six airmen assigned to the 319th Bomb Wing was sitting on the tarmac at Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota.  That evening the aircraft was armed with eight AGM-69A SRAMs (Short Range Attack Missiles) each carrying a W69 warhead with a yield of 170-200 kilotons and four B28 nuclear gravity bombs with a yield of 70 kilotons to 1.45 megatons.  Around 9 p.m. that evening during a routine engine start, the plane’s number five engine burst into flames.  The crew evacuated and firefighters battled the blaze for three hours before getting it under control – 35 mile-per-hour winds extended the time required to put out the fire.  Despite the U.S. Air Force’s initial public position that the fire was very unlikely to trigger a possible nuclear accident, years later in 1988, Dr. Robert Batzel, the director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a key U.S. nuclear weapon research and development facility, indicated during closed door testimony before a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense that this incident had actually come very close to being “worse than Chernobyl.”  A redacted transcript of Batzel’s testimony eventually became public knowledge.  In that testimony, he indicated that a disaster was narrowly avoided telling the Subcommittee that if the wind had been blowing in any other direction, then the intense fire would have been virtually impossible to extinguish resulting in the incineration of the aircraft and the nuclear weapons inside its bomb bays – causing the rocket motors in the SRAMs as well as the conventional triggering explosives jacketing the W69 warheads to explode.  Batzel specifically said that a nuclear explosion would not have resulted but that the blast would have thrown a plume of highly radioactive plutonium into the atmosphere which easily would have impacted a sixty square mile area which including parts of North Dakota and Minnesota and affecting at least 70,000 people living within 20 miles of Grand Forks as well as contaminating water aquifers in the region. While the military and nuclear weapons laboratories have become aware of some of the dangers of Cold War era nuclear weapons and pushed successfully for their removal from the stockpile, consistent with the political decisionmaking of past U.S. presidents, other weapons with perhaps unknown or acceptable defects remain in the U.S. nuclear arsenal or are being added to it in the near future.  Comments:  However more recently Stephen Schwartz, a long-time nuclear weapons analyst and author of the book “Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Since 1940” has noted that in fact a thermonuclear explosion could easily have resulted from this 1980 accident.  Schwartz discovered that a design flaw in the B-28 1.45 megaton bomb meant that if exposed to prolonged heat, two wires located too close to the casing of the warhead could short circuit, arm the bomb, trigger an accidental explosion of the high explosives jacketing the core and set off a nuclear blast that would have spread a deadly radioactive cloud 250 miles northeast into Minnesota and Canada.  In January 1983 this scenario almost occurred, a fire that completely destroyed a B52G bomber at Grand Forks Air Force Base and killed five maintenance personnel.  Most fortunately however, this particular aircraft was not carrying nuclear weapons.  Schwartz recently reiterated that “There have been thousands of accidents involving U.S. nuclear weapons.  In most cases, we can thank good engineering or smart personnel decisions for keeping things from becoming catastrophic.”   But his dire warning that our luck might run out someday soon is chilling when we consider that all nine nuclear weapons states are planning or already have started to build more “improved” doomsday machines, “The more nuclear weapons we have and the more we have on alert (a reference to the current “hair-trigger” alert status of U.S. and Russian land-based ICBMs), the greater the risk of accidents.  We were extremely lucky during the Cold War that no nuclear weapons ever accidentally exploded and no crises got completely out of hand.”  But of course, all it takes is one such incident which could trigger nuclear Armageddon and the destruction of our global civilization and possibly the demise of our entire species. (Sources:  Michael Peck.  “How A Burning B-52 Bomber Almost Triggered Nuclear Catastrophe.” National Interest. Sept. 25, 2019 http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-burning-b-52-bomber-almost-triggered-nuclear-catastrophe-83296 and Joseph Treithick. “The Time When A Burning B-52 Nearly Caused A Nuclear Catastrophe Worse Than Chernobyl.” The War Zone.com. September 20, 2019 http://thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29945/the-time-when-a-burning-b-52-nearly-caused-a-nuclear-catastrophe-worse-than-chernobyl/

    September 28, 1980 – Premiere of the first (The Shores of the Cosmic Ocean) of thirteen episodes of the KCET Los Angeles PBS-produced television series “Cosmos: A Personal Voyage,” hosted by astrophysicist and renowned science popularizer Carl Sagan (a cowriter of the series along with Ann Druyan and Steven Soter).  Over the last 40 years since it first aired, it has become the most popular PBS series in the world with viewership in over 60 nations, winning two Emmys and a Peabody Award after its initial run.  In addition to documenting the history of scientific thought relating to the study of the universe, the series looked at the origins of life on Earth and presented a unique and most valuable speculative perspective about our species’ place in the universe.  Critically, the series also addressed the threats facing humanity, specifically the threat of nuclear war, “The global balance of terror pioneered by the United States and the Soviet Union holds hostage all the citizens of the Earth…But the balance of terror is a delicate balance with very little margin for miscalculation. And the world impoverishes itself by spending a trillion dollars a year on preparations for war and by employing perhaps half the scientists and high technologists on the planet in military endeavors…From an extraterrestrial perspective our global civilization is clearly on the edge of failure in the most important task it faces – preserving the lives and well-being of its citizens and the future habitability of the planet. But if we’re willing to live with the growing likelihood of nuclear war, shouldn’t we also be willing to explore vigorously every possible means to prevent nuclear war? …A new consciousness is developing which sees the Earth as a single organism and recognizes that an organism at war with itself is doomed.”  Sagan, who just a few years later went on with his scientific colleagues, the TTAPS Group, to prove that not only does nuclear war represent an unprecedented catastrophe but in fact, it is the means, through their nuclear winter study, to trigger the mass extinction of most species on Earth including ours.  Nuclear winter, no longer a theory but fact as verified by more recent studies by Rutgers University Professor Alan Robock and colleagues, illustrates that a nuclear war is misnamed, for a large nuclear weapons exchange will instead result in nuclear omnicide or at least the end of our global civilization.  While “Cosmos” provided viewers with a stark warning, it also provided an uplifting alternative of possible human futures, “It is well within our power to destroy our civilization and perhaps our species as well.  If we capitulate to superstition, greed, or stupidity, we can plunge our world into a darkness deeper than the time between the collapse of classical civilization and the Italian Renaissance.  But we’re also capable of using our compassion and our intelligence, our technology, and our wealth to make an abundant and meaningful life for every inhabitant of this planet – to enhance enormously our understanding of the universe and to carry us to the stars.” (Sources: Various mainstream and alternative news media sites and The Carl Sagan Portal at carlsagan.com)

  • This Spring in Nuclear Threat History

    April 4, 2018 – On the fiftieth anniversary of the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr., the Kings Bay Plowshares Seven consisting of Catholic priest Steve Kelly, Dorothy Day’s granddaughter Martha Hennessy, Clare Grady, Elizabeth McAllister, Mark Colville, Patrick O’Neill, and Carmen Trotta, cut a hole in a security fence and entered one of two sites in the continental United States where the greatest number of nuclear weapons are stored – Kings Bay Naval Submarine Base in St. Marys, Georgia where six Trident Ohio-class strategic nuclear missile submarines (SSBNs) are based.  Each of the submarines carry 24 D5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles that usually have twelve MIRVed W76 nuclear warheads (100 kiloton explosive) or W88 nuclear warheads (300-475 kilotons explosive) on each rocket, a deadly total of 192 warheads which theoretically could each trigger nuclear winter.  Inside the base, the seven nonviolent individuals of the Catholic faith sang hymns, hung banners and crime-scene tape, and recorded the action with body cameras.  They also spray-painted slogans, pounded a display of a Tomahawk missile with a hammer and poured human blood on an official seal of the base, depicting a missile crossed with a submarine. One of them left an indictment against the United States.  They were all arrested, jailed, and charged with conspiracy, destruction of government property, depredation of a naval installation, and trespassing.  Four were released on bail after two months and the others remained in jail for over a year.  On October 24, 2019 in a widely publicized trial attended by hundreds of people including activist and actor Martin Sheen, and held in U.S. Southern District Federal Court in Brunswick, Georgia, they were found guilty on all counts by a jury and are expected to be sentenced sometime in 2020. These peace activists were an offshoot of the Catholic Worker movement founded by Dorothy Day and Peter Maurin on May Day, 1933.  According to one of the members of Plowshares, Art Laffin, since the group’s first such action on September 9, 1980, “…others acting in community and some individually have entered military bases and weapons facilities and have symbolically and actually disarmed components of U.S. first-strike nuclear weapons systems:  the MX, Pershing II, and cruise missiles, Minuteman ICBMs, Trident II missiles, Trident submarines, B-52 bombers, P-3 Orion anti-submarine aircraft, the Navstar system, the ELF communication system, the Milstar Satellite system, a nuclear capable battleship, and the Aegis destroyer.  Combat aircraft used for military intervention such as F-111 fighter bomber, the F-15A fighter, the F-18 bomber, the A-10 Warthog (equipped with depleted uranium munitions), the Hawk aircraft as well as combat helicopters and other conventional weapons, military aircraft, missile launchers, bazookas, grenade launchers, and AK-5 military rifles have been disarmed.  Also model weapons have been disarmed at an ‘Arms Bazaar.’”  Comments: Peace advocates worldwide support this humanitarian nonviolent symbolic destruction of antiquated doomsday weaponry and the mindset that perpetuates the widespread acceptance and even affection for the institution of warfare as a legitimate means to settle disputes by elite world leaders and their supporters.  But often ignored in these highly successful efforts to penetrate these supposedly highly secure bases and disrupt and destroy these weapons and their platforms is the fact that these protests starkly illustrate that these extremely dangerous and deadly devices are, despite high-level assurances to the contrary, unexpectedly vulnerable to attacks or theft by domestic or foreign-based criminal elements and terrorists who could wreck extreme havoc and cause extremely large numbers of casualties if they successfully discharged these weapons of mass destruction, or helped precipitate an accidental nuclear exchange.  (Sources:  Paul Elie. “The Pope and Catholic Radicals Come Together Against Nuclear Weapons.” The New Yorker. Nov. 19, 2019 and “A History of the Plowshares Movement – A Talk by Art Laffin.” Oct. 22, 2019 http://www.kingsbayplowshares7.org/plowshares-history/ and other mainstream and alternative media sites.)

    April 11, 2018 – Lorelei Goff’s article on The Appalachian Voices.org website, “Appalachia’s Toxic Dumping Ground: Ohio Residents Speak Out About The State’s Influx of Fracking Waste,” and other recent articles like “America’s Radioactive Secret” by Justin Nobel in the February 2020 issue of Rolling Stone illustrate the little known connection between the two existential threats to humanity today, the nuclear one (whether that means fears that nuclear weapons will be used on human populations or that contaminants from these doomsday weapons’ production cycle or from civilian nuclear power plants will further poison our waters, land, and bodies) and global climate change caused by the increasing utilization of fossil fuels and the accompanying impacts (which this writer was shocked to discover for the first time included harmful radioactive contamination) on the environment and our species.  The fact that conventional oil and gas wells as well as fracked natural gas exploitation in the United States results in the introduction into our previously protected surface environment of at least a trillion gallons a year of salty often dangerously radioactive toxic brine from deep underground, a naturally occurring waste product of oil and gas wells, is yet another reason why greener energy choices like solar, wind, hydropower, and possibly geothermal are a much safer and wiser alternative than oil, gas, and nuclear power.  Both articles, particularly Nobel’s Rolling Stone piece, which is a preview of his future book on this subject, point out that beyond the threat to Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia residents who are being exposed to thousands of brine waste-hauling trucks, there are about a million oil and gas wells in a total of 33 states and radioactive brine dumping sites in many other additional states.  Samples of radium, usually the most abundant radionuclide in brine waste water, and specifically the most common isotopes of which are radium-226 (radon) and radium-228 (with half-lives of 1,600 and 5.75 years, respectively), are judged safe by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission if they do not exceed 60 picocuries per liter.  Testing of the water routinely found inside waste trucks by credible academic institutions have found radiation levels as high as 3,500 to 8,500 picocuries per liter.  “Oil tanks, filters, pumps, hoses and trucks themselves that brine touches can all be contaminated with the radium building up into hardened ‘scale’ concentrating to as high as 400,000 picocuries per gram,” according to  John Stoltz director of the environmental center at Duquesne University in Pittsburgh.  Stoltz also warned that, “Breathing in this stuff and ingesting it are the worst types of exposure. You are irradiating your tissues from the inside out.”  But while the radioactive particles fired off by radium can be blocked by the skin, it does readily attach to dust, making it very easy to accidentally inhale or ingest.  The problem would be bad enough if we just considered the health risks to oil and gas well workers, brine waste water truck drivers, workers who do the actual dumping at legitimate waste sites (as well as illegal ones such as abandoned deep coal mines for example), and local populations exposed accidentally to contamination by their interaction with exposed workers as well as their proximity to roads frequented by the brine hauling waste trucks.  But in point of fact, the problem is so hidden and misunderstood, by not only government environmental regulators but also oil and gas and related industrial interests that these contaminants are being purposely dumped into our environment under the guise of providing beneficial advantages.  One example is the spreading of brine on roads.  Nobel writes that, “The industry pawns off brine –offering it for free—on rural townships that use the salty solution as a winter de-icer and, in the summertime, as a dust tamper on unpaved roads.”  It is even sold in home improvement stores as a liquid de-icer called AquaSalina for use on patios, driveways and sidewalks, but an Ohio state laboratory tested a sample of the liquid and found it contained a dangerous radioactive level of 2,491 picocuries per liter.  The radium isotopes in this contaminated brine can obviously cause skin, lung, bone and other cancers including chronic lymphocytic leukemia.  Comments:  Over the past decades, the multibillion dollar fossil fuel industry has lobbied and successfully convinced the Environmental Protection Agency and many state environmental agencies to exempt this brine from being defined as hazardous waste.  However, after many years of workers’ lawsuits, legal settlements, and word spreading on the grapevine, it is getting harder and harder to hide this nuclear threat. Liz Moran of the New York Public Interest Research Group says, “It can be argued that if you close the loophole, you would put the industry out of business.”  Increasingly Americans and other global citizenry are demanding an end to this out-of-sight, out-of-mind deadly contamination of the ecosystem by pushing for a truly global Green New Deal which addresses both existential threats to humanity’s future – nuclear and climate catastrophes.  To quote a phrase from a famous film from the Seventies, “We’re mad as hell, and we’re not going to take it anymore!”

    April 12, 1970 – In the Bay of Biscay, almost 300 nautical miles northwest of Spain, K-8, a Soviet November class Type 627 attack submarine powered by two nuclear reactors and carrying four nuclear torpedoes experienced two fires in the dual reactors on April 8th which had to be sealed off resulting in the initial deaths of eight crewman.  The submarine was able to surface and despite the arrival of a Soviet repair vessel that was able to attach and tow the submarine, bad weather and heavy seas not only doomed the salvage operation but led to the sinking of the vessel with the loss of all hands, an additional 52 Soviet sailors on this date. K-8 sank to a depth of 15,000 feet making recovery of the submarine’s reactor vessels and four nuclear torpedoes impossible.  Comments:  This deadly tragedy was just one example of dozens or even hundreds of accidents involving submarines, surface ships, and aircraft that led to the loss of nuclear propulsion units and/or nuclear weapons.  Some of the nuclear reactors and warheads lost at sea are leaking highly radioactive toxins affecting not only the flora and fauna of the deep, but the health and well-being of millions of people.  In the last decade with the unfortunate and irrational rejuvenation of the nuclear arms race, more of these types of accidents have probably already occurred and have been kept secret for national security reasons by the nine nuclear weapons states.  Even if humanity’s luck continues and nuclear conflicts are avoided, increasing contamination of the biosphere and the detrimental effects of increased radioactivity from nuclear weapons production and deployment on the health and well-being of our species and countless others are penultimate reasons why this madness must cease!  Global citizenry are working feverishly to achieve the goal of ending Cold War II and immediately terminating the renewed nuclear arms race, while pushing for large reductions and the eventual elimination of these doomsday weapons. (Sources: William Arkin and Joshua Handler. “Neptune Papers II: Naval Nuclear Accidents at Sea.” Greenpeace International. 1990; Spencer Dunmore. “Lost Subs.”  Cambridge, MA: Da Capo Press, 2002; and Robert Farley. “Wild: The Soviet Submarine K-8 Sunk With 4 Nuclear Torpedoes Still Onboard.” The National Interest. Feb. 11, 2020 http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/wild-submarine-k-8-sunk-4-nuclear-torpedoes-still-onboard-122261 accessed March 11, 2020.)

    April 27 – May 22, 2020 – (postponed due to the COVID-19 Pandemic) Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) at United Nations Headquarters in New York City which will occur several weeks after the 50th anniversary of the entry into force of the NPT on March 5th.  The international community continues to consider the NPT as one of the most seminal arms control treaties of the Nuclear Age.  The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was first signed on July 1, 1968 by the U.S., U.K., the Soviet Union, and 59 other nations and entered into force on March 5, 1970.  Currently, the treaty has 191 participating nation-states.  However nuclear weapons states India, Pakistan and Israel have refused to sign the treaty and North Korea revoked its signature.  More recently Iran has threatened to abandon the NPT if its European partners report its 2015 agreement breaches to the U.N. Security Council.  Comments:  While the Cold War-era world didn’t have to deal with a worst-case scenario of dozens of nuclear weapons states warned about by Democratic presidential candidate John Kennedy during the third Nixon-Kennedy Debate on Oct. 13, 1960, today things have reached a crisis point again.  Although there have been some historic meetings between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump, despite some previous tit-for-tat nuclear saber-rattling tweets between the two men, it appears that a treaty ending the Korean War while also denuclearizing the Korean peninsula remains unlikely in the short-term.  More concerning may be President Trump’s withdrawal of the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement and renewed stronger sanctions on that nation that recently led the Iranians to reverse their commitment to comply with the 2015 agreement in concert with their European partners while also criticizing the U.S.-led sanctions which they claim helped cripple the Iranian response to the deadly corona virus pandemic.  More frightening still is the fact that both the U.S. and Iran have heightened tensions by the use of military force including the assassination of a key Iranian leader by a U.S. drone and the launching by Iran of over 20 ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Iraq earlier this year.  At the very least there are fears that a conventional war may break out between the nations, most probably after the November 3, 2020 U.S. presidential election.  An increasingly likely war between the U.S. and either North Korea or Iran might inadvertently break the tripwire that triggers the first use of nuclear weapons in combat since 1945.  Several years ago, President Trump openly promoted the idea that Japan, South Korea, and other allies like possibly the Saudis should join the Nuclear Club which would obviously set U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policy back decades.  In legal terms, the long-term prospects of a continued healthy NPT do not look good due to the fact that the vast majority of nations agreed to forestall their development of nuclear weapons fifty years ago only after the Nuclear Club members signed on to a critical pledge made in Article VI of the Treaty:  “All Parties undertake to pursue good faith negotiations on effective measures relating to the cessation of the nuclear arms race and to nuclear disarmament and to general and complete disarmament.”   Although some significant progress did occur in these commitments during the last decades of the Cold War and in the 1990s and early 2000s when three former Soviet states Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Libya denuclearized, events of the last fifteen years have almost totally negated these successes.  A renewed global nuclear arms race has been underway for several years, the nuclear weapons states have rejected the United Nations’ Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons signed by dozens of nations on July 7, 2017 and while the trend of international state-to-state conventional wars have been reduced, the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) continues unabated for two decades and counting.  Thankfully many millions of global citizenry continue to protest and lobby their political representatives to end this counterproductive paradigm that has killed hundreds of millions of people over the last few centuries while demanding an end to international arms production and sales, the demilitarization of the planet, ending the nuclear threat represented by both nuclear power and nuclear weapons, and reorienting global priorities toward addressing climate change, cleaning up military and civilian toxic sites worldwide, preventing serious disease outbreaks, ending global poverty and providing a free education to the global masses regardless of their lack of economic means. (Sources: Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC: Center for Defense Information, 2002, p.1, “Iran to Quit NPT If Its Nuclear Programme Referred to UN: Tehran Says It Will Abandon Key Global Treaty If European Powers Bring Nuclear Deal Breaches to U.N. Security Council.” Aljazeera. January 20, 2020.  http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iran-zrif-skip-davos-forum-programme-200120094500271.html and United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, “Background Information: 2020 NPT Review Conference.” United Nations Office of Disarmament Affairs. New York, NY. http://www.meetings/unoda.org/section/conf-npt-2020-background/inf/ both accessed March 12, 2020 and other mainstream and alternative news sources.)

    May 9, 1970 – One of the most notable labor leaders, human rights advocates (and participant in Civil Rights-era protests including the Selma March in 1965), peace activists (and opponent of the Vietnam War), and anti-nuclear spokesmen of the 20th century was silenced on this date when Walter Philip Reuther, along with his wife and a number of friends and colleagues, perished in a plane crash near Pellston, Michigan.  Reuther was born in Wheeling, W.Va. on Sept. 1, 1907 and as a young man he moved to Detroit where he applied his skills as an expert tool and die maker in the auto industry.  Later, he was elected president of an influential auto workers’ union local group and led several sit-down strikes in 1937 and 1940, became president of the United Auto Workers in 1946 (and held that post the rest of his life), and helped found the anticommunist liberal organization Americans for Democratic Action.  In 1952, he was elected president of the Congress of Industrial Organizations and within three years he was a key player in the merger of both unions to form the AFL-CIO.  In the 1960s, he marched with Caesar Chavez and the United Farm Workers in Delano, California and also strongly showed his support for the Civil Rights movement by participating in the August 1963 March on Washington led by Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr.  The Republican candidate for president in 1964, a staunchly conservative Barry Goldwater, once declared Reuther “a more dangerous menace than the Sputnik or anything Soviet Russia might do in America.”  In a Labor Day speech in 1966, Reuther presented a strong case for utilizing rapid technological advances not for war but for improving the human condition:  “The question that challenges the wisdom and the sense of human solidarity of the whole human family is the overriding question:  To what purpose do we commit the potential power of the 20th century technological revolution?  Do we harness the potential power to the madness of nuclear war or can we build a rational and responsible world community and harness the rising star of science and technology to man’s peaceful purposes?  The 20th century technological revolution has no ideology and it has no morality.  We must bend it to man’s peaceful purposes or we shall perish.” In another speech, Reuther proclaimed, “The people of the whole world are the prisoners of the Cold War and the insanity of the escalation of the nuclear arms race.  And that’s why I believe America has the responsibility for providing both the political and moral leadership to try to move the world out of this prison of the Cold War and the arms race towards reductions in the levels of armament because I believe that in the long run, peace is the only condition of human survival.” Comments: Fifty years ago a prominent voice of the poor, disenfranchised, and oppressed and a highly visible opponent of the nuclear arms race left us, and although he may be gone, Walter Reuther is not forgotten.  (Source:  The Reuther Library. “No Greater Calling: The Life of Walter P. Reuther.” Wayne State University. http://reuther100.wayne.edu accessed March 10, 2020.)

    May 16, 2000New York Times journalist William Broad reported the release of declassified documents relating to a staff study by the U.S. Air Force Special Weapons Center conducted in January of 1959.  One of the participants in the study, the late astronomer-physicist Carl Sagan, was among several scientists tasked to assess the feasibility of conducting a nuclear weapons test on the lunar surface.  Sagan and the other participants concluded that the blast would “ruin the pristine environment of the moon.”  On January 27, 1967, the multilateral Outer Space Treaty was signed and the agreement was later entered into force on October 10 of that same year.  The treaty prohibits the placement of weapons of mass destruction in orbit, on the moon, or on any celestial body.    For decades the only possible amendment to this critical space treaty had been debate about utilizing nuclear weapons, as a last resort, to prevent a possible future asteroid or comet collision with our planet. Comments:  However in the last few years, the decades-long international legal and historical precedence prohibiting nuclear weapons from being deployed or exploded outside Earth’s atmosphere has significantly eroded and possibly is on its way to complete invalidation due to the actions of President Donald Trump.  Trump’s dangerous rhetoric (“Why can’t we use nuclear weapons?” 2016), anger-filled tweets aimed at North Korea and Iran, and his administration’s position that nuclear weapons may need to be tested routinely on a regular basis, despite a long-held scientific consensus by nuclear weapons laboratory experts that computer simulations have confirmed the long-term viability of the warheads (see JASON Group study conclusions  sourced below).  Additionally the President’s announcement of (in June of 2018) and follow-through with the establishment of the sixth branch of the U.S. Armed Forces as part of his Dec. 20, 2019 signing of the National Defense Authorization Act created The U.S. Space Force.  Although a Space Operations Service was part of the U.S. Air Force since 1982, it has now become an independent service charged with building the capability of fighting and winning wars in outer space which definitely constitutes a violation of the Outer Space Treaty and fuels the full-scale militarization of outer space possibly including unprecedented testing of nuclear weapons in orbital space or on heavenly bodies such as the Moon.  Trump’s actions aim to go way beyond established uses of the medium of outer space as mostly a reconnaissance platform for monitoring nuclear weapons tests and ballistic missile launches worldwide.  Obviously spy satellites and ground targeting systems have also been long deployed in the medium as well.  In the ensuing 18 months or less while preparations are underway to begin fulfilling its warfighting mission in outer space, it is fervently hoped by billions of global citizenry that President Trump is denied a second term and that more reasonable politicians and military leaders will reduce dramatically or even disestablish this means to trigger an irrational, further destabilizing species-threatening space arms race which might also trigger space- or ground-based nuclear war.  Even if large space conflict and the accompanying surface warfare is somehow avoided, smaller space conflicts will also contribute substantially to the growing problem of increasing exponentially the large number of pieces of orbital debris that encircle our planet, making manned and unmanned space travel riskier and eventually impossible.  Such an eventuality will make routine space weather forecasting and global communications problematic and even doom our species if we are someday unable to launch spacecraft or weaponry that can divert an incoming asteroid or comet determined to be on a collision course with Earth.  (Sources:  “Lifetime Extension Program (LEP): Executive Summary.”  JASON Program Office, The MITRE Corporation. JSA-09-334E, Sept 9, 2009. http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/lep.pdf

    Katie Rogers. “Trump Orders Establishment of Space Force as Sixth Military Branch.” New York Times. June 18, 2018 http://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/us/politics/Trump-space-force-sixth-military-branch.html

    And “What’s the Space Force?”  U.S. Space Force. http://www.spaceforce.mil/About-Us/FAQs/what’s-the-space-force all of which were accessed on March 3, 2020.)

    May 27, 1923 – Birthdate of one of the most controversial figures in U.S. foreign and military policy and most importantly U.S. nuclear weapons policy – Henry A. Kissinger.  Born into a Jewish family in Furth a Bavarian city in Germany, Kissinger as a teen moved with his family to the United States where he joined the U.S. Army and served with distinction in an intelligence unit fighting the Nazis and became a naturalized U.S. citizen. After the war he earned masters and doctorate degrees at Harvard University, then he became a foreign policy advisor to the presidential campaigns of Nelson Rockefeller.  More than a decade before he became prominent as President Nixon’s National Security Advisor in January 1969 and later as Secretary of State in 1973-77, he was a study director of nuclear weapons and foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations during which time he wrote a book “Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy” which was critical of President Eisenhower’s “massive retaliation” doctrine while also frighteningly advocating the use of tactical nuclear weapons for warfighting as part of his Realpolitik mindset. Later he played a dominant role in formulating U.S. foreign policy during the Nixon and Ford administrations calling for increased détente with the Soviets and the opening of relations with Communist China.  But many critics during that time and even today have rightfully criticized him for facilitating Nixon’s genocidal and sometimes secretive bombing of Indochina during the Vietnam War and for his support of a military coup in Chile launched on September 11, 1973 that resulted in not only the death of popularly elected democratic Socialist leader Salvador Allende but of the repression, forced disappearances, and extrajudicial murders of tens of thousands of leftists, religious leaders, journalists, indigenous and rural populations deemed enemies of the rightwing Latin American regimes involved in Operation Condor.  Comments:  Dr. Kissinger’s historical legacy is at best a mixed one but also predominantly negative from a progressive perspective.  While he did help create a ceasefire agreement to end major U.S. fighting in the Vietnam War in January 1973 and was nominated but declined accepting the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts, notable critics like New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd had their say on this matter, “Any peace prize that goes to Henry Kissinger but not Gandhi ain’t worth a can of Alpo.” In terms of the nuclear threat, again Kissinger’s commitment to the disturbingly flawed but mostly celebrated mainstream concept of nuclear deterrence and his views on the viability of tactical nuclear weapons are of serious concern.  Even more terrifying was Kissinger’s support and facilitation of President Nixon’s “madman strategy” during the Vietnam War and the fourth Mideast War which incorporated veiled nuclear threats from allegedly a sometimes irrational commander-in-chief meant to intimidate Hanoi, the Arab States opposing Israel and their patrons in Moscow. This extremely dangerous and unpredictable policy could have inadvertently triggered an accidental or unintentional full scale nuclear war with the Soviet Union.  In Kissinger’s favor are some thoughtful statements and policy pronouncements that he advanced during some junctures of his long career.  In 1965 he noted that, “No one knows how governments or people will react to a nuclear explosion under conditions where both sides possess nuclear arsenals,” which obviously characterized the period of the Cold War (1945-1991) as well as our current rejuvenated Cold War II and nuclear arms race that was initiated by Presidents Bush and Obama but accelerated exponentially by President Trump.  And he did join George Schultz, William Perry, and Sam Nunn in advocating “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons” in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published on January 4, 2007. (Sources:  “Henry Kissinger Biography.” Biography.com. http://www.biography.com/political-figure/henry-kissinger and William Burr and Jeffrey P. Kimball. “Nixon, Kissinger and the Madman Strategy During the Vietnam War.” National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 517. http://www.nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb517-nixon-kissinger-and-the-madman-strategy-during-Vietnam-War/ both accessed March 4, 2020.)

    June 3, 1980 – President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski was awakened by his military assistant, General William Odom, around 2:30 a.m. and informed that NORAD’s computers had detected a launch of 2,200 Soviet ICBMs heading for U.S. targets.  The incident was one of many so-called “false warnings.”  When early warning radars and satellites could not verify the fictional Soviet first strike, Brzezinski determined that the attack was a false alarm.  Later it was discovered that this doomsday scare was caused by a faulty computer chip – which cost a mere 46 cents.  Comments:  Such false warnings are still possible today although technological verification is more sophisticated and supposedly more foolproof.  It is still true however that the very short response times in nuclear crises, make accidental, unintentional, or unauthorized nuclear warfare a frighteningly real possibility now and in the future.  (Source:  Eric Schlosser.  “Command and Control:  Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.”  New York:  Penguin Press, 2013, pp. 367-368.)

    June 24, 1957Priscilla, a nuclear test blast was detonated at 700 feet altitude at Frenchman Flat in the Nevada Test Site with a magnitude estimated at 37 kilotons, two and a half times as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.  The purpose of the test was to assess the impact of nuclear weapons on targeted populations as well as equipment, weapons, and shelters.  French, Swiss, and German bomb shelters performed above expectations but dozens of pigs sealed inside the doors of machine gun emplacements died horribly.  Comments:  The testing of over 2,050 nuclear bombs over the last seven and a half decades by the nine nuclear weapons states has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations, especially native peoples and veterans who participated in observing tests at relatively close range.  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems and other detrimental environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people due to nuclear testing, which some irresponsible leaders like President Trump are arguing are needed again despite long-held scientific consensus that testing is not only unnecessary but destabilizing to the fragile nuclear deterrence construct.  Even more objectionable is the fact that world citizenry feel that such tests will only embolden elite leadership further into believing irrationally that nuclear conflicts are winnable as long as top leadership survive in deep underground shelters. (Sources: Thomas B. Cochran, William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Milton M. Hoenig. “Nuclear Weapons Databook: Volume II, Appendix B.” Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1987 and Garrett M. Graff. “Raven Rock:  The Story of the U.S. Government’s Secret Plan to Save Itself – While the Rest of Us Die.”  New York:  Simon & Schuster, 2017, pp. 80-81.)

  • This Winter in Nuclear Threat History, 2020

    January 13, 2018 – A little after 8 a.m. local time, Hawaii residents watching television on a peaceful Saturday morning were suddenly shocked and overwhelmed by a broadcast audio message indicating that, “The U.S. Pacific Command has detected a missile threat to Hawaii – Seek shelter immediately, this is not a drill.”  A text message was also sent to millions of e-devices which read as, “Inbound ballistic missile threat enroute to Hawaii – Seek shelter now.”  It was later revealed that an employee of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency had inadvertently triggered this false alert message.  A correction message was sent out 38 minutes after the initial error message was released but for many it was too late as some panicked, others suffered heart attacks or stress-related health impacts while others disregarded the message.  Many had no idea what they should do as governmental instructions encouraging them to shelter-in-place, preferably at an underground location, were not widely disseminated.  Three days later, on Tuesday January 16th, a Japanese television network, NHK, issued a similar warning claiming that North Korea appeared to have launched a missile toward the island nation and urged people to take shelter inside buildings or underground.  In this instance, the error was corrected within minutes and allegedly there were no reports of panic or other disruptions.  Comments: Over the last three quarters of a century, a disturbing number of false nuclear threat alerts have scared the wits out of millions of global citizenry, although during the Cold War (1945-1991) some U.S. military false alerts were only revealed to members of the public a significant time after they happened thanks to the efforts of researchers and activists utilizing the Freedom of Information Act.  These incidents raise serious concerns about the stark possibilities that misperception, miscommunication including erroneous messages, unauthorized or accidental threats, especially made during times of crisis, could inadvertently trigger a nuclear conflict.  That is why it is paramount for the nine nuclear weapons states to immediately de-alert their doomsday arsenals and sign on to the July 7, 2017 U.N.-negotiated Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons at the earliest opportunity.  (Sources: Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura. “Days After Hawaii’s False Missile Alert, A New One In Japan.” New York Times. Jan.16, 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/world/asia/japan-hawaii-alert.html accessed July 3, 2019 and Alex Wellerstein. “This Is Not A Drill: Lessons From The Hawaii False Missile Alert.” The Courier: Newsletter of The Stanley Foundation, Spring 2019.)

    January 17, 1966 – Several hours after leaving its air base near Goldsboro, North Carolina, a U.S. B-52 strategic bomber carrying four Mark-28 hydrogen bombs each one 75 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb, collided in mid-air with a KC-135 tanker aircraft near Palomares, on the southern coast of Spain.  The bomber crashed causing the high explosives jacketing two of the thermonuclear warheads to detonate spreading highly radioactive plutonium dust over a very large agricultural area where tomatoes were grown.  The third bomb landed intact but the fourth nuclear weapon disappeared until sometime later when the H-bomb was found resting on the nearby seabed. Part of the plane landed 80 yards from an elementary school, another section of the aircraft hit the earth 150 yards from a chapel.  A long and expensive search and clean-up operation by U.S. military and civilian authorities was undertaken.  Comments:  Hundreds of nuclear incidents including Broken Arrow accidents have occurred over the decades despite some innovative safety measures pushed on the Pentagon by U.S nuclear weapons laboratories and nongovernmental experts.  Nevertheless, the resulting leakage of nuclear toxins, due to accidents (many still underreported or even completely undisclosed for “national security” reasons) by members of the Nuclear Club have threatened the health and safety of large numbers of world citizenry.  (Sources:  Daniel Immerwahr.  “How to Hide An Empire: A History of the Greater United States.” New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2019, pp. 352-354 and Tony Long.  “January 17, 1966:  H-Bombs Rain Down on a Spanish Fishing Village.”  Wired.com, January 17, 2012.  http://www.wired.com/2012/jan-17-1966-h-bombs-rain-down/ accessed July 3, 2019.)

    January 25, 2016 –A dedicated antinuclear peace activist, Concepcion Picciottio (nicknamed “The Little Giant”), who emigrated to the U.S. from Spain, passed away on this date at the estimated age of 80 years old.  In what some considered as the longest running act of political protest in U.S. history, Ms. Picciotto, beginning in 1981, held a three decade-long vigil in Lafayette Park adjacent to the White House in Washington, DC.  “Connie” or “Conchita,” as she was known to volunteers at the N Street Village housing facility for homeless women, fashioned and displayed a variety of large signs and banners that read, “Nuclear Weapons: A Disgrace to Decency, Civilization, Reason, and Logic,” “Ban All Nuclear Weapons Or Have A Nice Doomsday!” and “Live By the Bomb, Die By The Bomb!”  Comments:  While the involvement in peaceful demonstrations, rhetorical pronouncements, educational activities, protests and political campaigns by celebrities (such as the actor Martin Sheen), business leaders (Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield of Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream), politicians both active and retired (Dennis Kucinich), lawyers (Ralph Nader), retired military officers (such as the late Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll, Jr., a former director of The Center for Defense Information), and medical professionals (Dr. Helen Caldicott) is critical to the future success of nuclear abolition, it is just as seminally important for groups of single activists or local grassroots organizations to grow in size, scope, and importance in the ever-expanding movement by hundreds of millions of global citizenry to eradicate nuclear weapons before it is too late.  Even one additional solitary voice can make a difference.  (Source: Caitlin Gibson, “Pennsylvania Avenue Activist Picciottio’s Vigil Lives On After Her Death – With Some Changes.”  Washington Post. March 1, 2016.)

    February 5, 2020 – This date represents exactly one year until the deadline expires for either the new 46th President of the U.S. or a reelected President Trump to have negotiated with Russia a renewal of the 2010 New START Treaty, which became effective on Feb. 5, 2011.  This “Moscow Treaty,” as it is also called, committed Russia and the U.S. to reducing the number of nuclear warheads and bombs by 30 percent over seven years and specifically set limits of 1,550 warheads for deployed strategic nuclear weapons held by each nation.  On January 28, 2017, Democracy Now reported that aides to President Trump leaked information that during a Putin-Trump phone conference when asked if he favored extending the New START Treaty, the 45th President allegedly responded in the negative and claimed it was another “bad deal negotiated by President Obama.”  Even more telling are the remarks of former National Security Advisor John Bolton who called the treaty “profoundly misguided” in a Wall Street Journal article published shortly after New START was signed.  “The President has made clear,” a senior White House official recently stated, “that he thinks that arms control should include Russia and China and should include all the weapons, all the warheads, all the missiles.”  Evidently we now are being persuaded to believe that the President wants to outdo Obama and past presidents in the area of arms control.  While some applaud this ambitious gesture to allegedly rein in nuclear arms, others worry that Trump is deliberately setting his target too high as a pretext for walking away without any agreement as he is obviously taking the nuclear talks too close to the expiration deadline of New START.  Some experts like Alexandra Bell, a senior policy director at The Center for Arms Control and Proliferation, feel that Trump could care less if he scuttles arms control, “The only reason you bring up China is if you have no intention of extending the New START Treaty.”  Comments: If the Moscow Treaty is not renewed before the Feb. 5, 2021 deadline, U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals would be unregulated for the first time since 1972!  Once again Americans are discovering that the “election” of the host of a reality game show, a fraudulent business man (examples are too many to cite but one of the most recent is the scandalous “Trump University” affair) without any governmental experience who is sadly lacking in knowledge or expertise in the areas of international law, foreign policy, diplomacy, arms control, and the species-threatening history of the extremely dangerous nuclear threat has put the world horrendously closer to an irreversible Armageddon.  The entirety of humanity won’t be able to breathe easy until his reign has ended – if we survive that long! (Sources:  Matthew Chapman. “Experts Warn Trump’s Huge Scheme to Negotiate ‘All The Missiles’ With Russia and China Will Collapse in Failure.” Raw Story. April 25, 2019 https://www.rawstory.com/2019/04/experts-warn-trumps-huge-scheme-negotiate-missiles-russia-china-will-collapse-failure/ and David Cay Johnston. “The Making of Donald Trump.” New York: Melville House, 2016, and “The U.S. Threatened to Withdraw From A Major Nuclear Arms Treaty With Russia.  Now What?” PBS News Hour. Dec. 6, 2018 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-u-s-threatened-to-withdraw-from-a-major-nuclear-arms-treaty-with-russia-now-what both accessed July 6, 2019.)

    February 25, 1986The Wall Street Journal published one of the first nationally distributed mainstream newspaper articles on another serious but little known threat of the nuclear age – uranium mill tailings.  The tailings are the by-product and one of the dangerous side effects of the mining of uranium, an essential component not only of “peaceful” civilian nuclear power plants but also the production of nuclear weapons.  According to a 2016 article in World Nuclear News, over three million pounds (equivalent to about 1,500 tons) of uranium ore was mined in 2015 with the most important mining sites in Utah along with leaching operations conducted at several sites in Wyoming, Texas, and Nebraska.  The WSJ piece described the tailings as fine sand-like residue left over after uranium is extracted from the mined ore.  Uranium-bearing minerals are removed from the mining products in a chemical leaching process involving the use of acids and bases.  The tailing sands contain a deadly sludge that includes about a dozen radioactive nuclides including thorium-230, radium-226 and radon-222 (i.e., radon gas) and are known to retain up to 85 percent of the ore’s original radioactivity and when stored above ground, this radioactive sand can be carried long distances by the wind to negatively impact our biosphere, particularly the human food chain and sources of fresh drinking water.  The likelihood of toxins like selenium and arsenic leaching out beneath these massive tailing mounds and contaminating large amounts of groundwater led the authors of this 1986 article to refer to these tailings as “an ecological bombshell just waiting to blow up.”  The same article also mentioned that the mill tailings represent one of the largest clean-up jobs in American history as millions of tons of this residue should legitimately be buried in geologically stable areas away from vulnerable water aquifers in order to avoid compromising our nation’s water supply.  In 2002, the Department of Energy filed a lawsuit against uranium mining firms decades after they negligently allowed huge amounts of mill tailing residue to contaminate the Colorado River.  The historical legacy of uranium mill tailings also has impacted native peoples in the United States in serious ways despite the fact that the many of these mining activites ended in the 1980s.  From 1944 to 1986 almost 30 million tons of uranium ore were mined under leases signed by the Navajo Nation.  According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), there were over 500 abandoned uranium mines in Navajo lands covering an area of 27,000 square miles in Utah, New Mexico and Arizona.  Legal actions to remedy these abuses have a more recent history and notable successes are unfortunately somewhat limited.  A recent $600 million settlement was announced on May 22, 2017 as administered by the U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona between the EPA and two former uranium mining companies now represented by the subsidiaries of Freeport-McMoRan which called for the cleanup of over 90 abandoned uranium mines and the adjacent mill tailing mounds on Najavo lands in that state.  Comments:  The issue of uranium mill tailings, an international as well as American problem, is in many ways, ‘out-of-sight, out-of-mind.’  It takes a backstage to many other more prominent risks associated with nuclear power and nuclear weapons, including proliferation, nuclear waste generated by decades of nuclear bomb production as well as civilian nuclear power generation, and the threat of nuclear war.  But the tailings issue obviously represents yet another critical reason why phasing out nuclear weapons and power is a global priority.  The tremendous monetary savings associated with ending the wasteful and destabilizing worldwide nuclear arms race will not only fuel the building of new infrastructure, educating a new generation of youth, creating sustainable jobs, providing Medicare for all, but it will also allow for the accelerated cleanup of global nuclear messes and the creation of sustainable, renewable energy sources to help address global warming.  (Sources:  Robinson, Paul, et al., “Uranium Mining and Milling:  A Primer.”  The Workbook. Albuquerque, NM:  Southwest Research and Information Center, 4 (6-7) 1979 https://webarchive.org/web/20100708033445/http://www.sric.org/uranium/1979_SRIC-URANIUM_PRIMER.pdf  and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  “Case Summary: $600 Million Settlement to Clean Up 94 Abandoned Uranium Mines on the Navajo Nation.” https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/case-summary-600-million-settlement-clean-94-abandoned-uranium-mines-navajo-nation both accessed July 17, 2019.)

    March 12, 2007The Boston Globe published an article, “Iran’s Nuclear Vision First Glimpsed at MIT” by Farah Stockman on this date.  The piece noted that in 1974, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in coordination with officials in the Nixon Administration, signed an agreement with representatives of the long-time ally of the United States – the Shah of Iran – to pay MIT physicists a half million dollars in order to train hundreds of Iranian engineers to master the nuclear fuel cycle and uranium enrichment.  Although the Shah’s regime was overthrown in 1979, those same Iranian engineers, and those that they have trained, have worked decades on not only plans to utilize civilian nuclear power but also to develop nuclear weapons.  The successful Iran nuclear agreement of 2015 showed great promise in preventing an Iranian bomb until it was unwisely scuttled by the Trump Administration.  Comments:   This example of U.S.-caused proliferation in Iran was not unusual for the same knowledge and expertise of nuclear proliferation has spread unwittingly in the last 70 years from the U.S. to Britain, France to Israel, Russia to China, and from Pakistan to North Korea.  A quote from American philosopher George Santayana (1863-1852) hits the nail right on the head, “Those who forget history, are condemned to repeat it.”  Today, President Trump has responded affirmatively to long entreaties by Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Saudi royalty along with their Arab allies to build more than a dozen nuclear reactors in the region, which is clearly a violation of past U.S. tradition and laws, particularly the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act of 1978.  Some media reports indicate that this Trump nuclear deal with the Saudis had its beginnings even before his inauguration in January of 2017!  Unfortunately it seems that the U.S., at its own peril, has focused on the alleged benefits of ‘peaceful’ nuclear power for the region rather than scrutinizing recent public statements made by Prince Salman whose ethical standards have been tainted by his alleged involvement in the conspiracy to viciously murder Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October of 2018.  One example is a February 15, 2018 interview by CBS News in which the Prince indicated that the Saudis will develop nuclear weapons if their Islamic rival Iran does so first.  This is why it is critical for all nations on the planet to halt the proliferation of all nuclear materials, knowledge, and fissile products and sign onto the 2017 Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and negotiate an all-encompassing Fissile Materials Control Treaty to halt forever the nuclear arms race and eliminate these doomsday weapons. (Sources:  Many mainstream and alternative news media sites and https://archive.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2007/03/12/irans_nuclear_vision_first_glimpsed_at_mit/ and https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/02/19/trump-administration-sell-nuclear-plants-saudi-arabia/291735702/ both accessed July 29, 2019.)

    March 21, 1961 (Spring – approximate date) – In response to requests from the Kennedy White House, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) formally submitted specific information to the Office of the President on the estimated casualty figures associated with a U.S. nuclear first strike against the Soviet Bloc.  Daniel Ellsberg, the Pentagon Papers whistleblower of 1971, was then someone in the inner circle of nuclear war planning.  His stark remarks about this time period are still as profound today as they were almost sixty years ago, “The total death count from our own attacks (against not only targets in the Soviet Union but also China and Soviet-dominated Eastern Europe) supplied by JCS was in the neighborhood of 600 million dead (revised upwards to one billion, one-third of humanity, when the tremendous destructive impact of the associated firestorms caused by these large magnitude nuclear blasts were factored into the equation), almost entirely civilian, the greater part inflicted in the first day or two, the rest over six months…the graph (of casualties that the JCS provided) seemed to me the pure depiction of evil.”  Ellsberg also noted that, “3,000 warheads would be delivered on the Soviet Bloc and China in the first stage of the execution of the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP)…Most of them I knew would be ground bursts, with fallout that would annihilate the population not only of the Sino-Soviet Bloc but at its neighbors including allies and neutrals…I was looking at the way the civilized world might end…This is what the U.S. had come to…Plans and preparations, awaiting only a presidential order to execute (or lower level officials as I’d discovered) for whose unforeseen consequences the term ‘genocidal’ was totally inadequate.”  The famous whistleblower, who faced over a hundred years in prison in 1971 for his release of the previously hidden trove of documents on unconscionable U.S. political and military decision making during the Vietnam Conflict, concluded that this 1961 SIOP, “exposed a dizzingly irrationality, madness, and insanity at the heart and soul of our nuclear planning.”  Comments: Unfortunately, strong-held prejudices about the efficacy of relying on the twin heavily flawed doctrines of ‘nuclear deterrence’ and ‘peace through strength’ (in a time when over 10,000 U.S. soldiers and contractors have died and over 50,000 have been wounded, as well as the tens of thousands of enemy combatants and innocent civilian casualties have been recorded in Iraq and Afghanistan during the perpetual Global War on Terrorism [GWOT]) pervade the ruling military and political leadership of all nine nuclear weapons states.  Even more pessimistically, the U.S. nuclear arsenal held by STRATCOM is ultimately steered and controlled by a President who confesses he is a nationalist and who sees nuclear weapons as the ultimate expression of American power. Let’s hope that our species can survive the Trump presidency and look forward to a day in the not too distant future when conservatives and progressives alike agree that nuclear war is unwinnable and that nuclear weapons are dangerous anachronisms of a genocidal era in human history and must therefore be eliminated. (Sources:  Daniel Ellsberg. “The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner.” New York: Bloomsbury, 2017, pp. 138-141, Jill Lepore. “This America: The Case for the Nation.” New York: Liveright Publishing Corp., 2019, pp. 24-25, and Christopher T. Mann. “In Focus: U.S. War Costs, Casualties, and Personnel Levels Since 9/11.” Congressional Research Service, April 18, 2019.)

    March 24, 1953 – The second nuclear device, Nancy, of a series of eleven nuclear weapons tests called Operation Upshot-Knothole, was exploded on a 300-foot high tower at the Nevada Test Site on this date with 21,000 soldiers from the four armed services (in an exercise called Desert Rock V) observing from what in retrospect was an ill-advised proximity to these explosions.  This nuclear blast’s magnitude was 24 kilotons, about fifty percent more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.  Comments:  This atmospheric explosion was a snapshot of the entirety of thousands of such detonations which, in total, equaled approximately 29,000 Hiroshima-sized bombs discharged between 1946 and 1998.  The impact of this madness, the deliberate contamination of our fragile biosphere by a plethora of highly toxic radioactive elements, reached all across the planet as in the name of ‘peace’ and ‘deterrence’ U.S, Russian, Chinese and other Nuclear Club military and political leaders waged global nuclear war.  No geographical area was untouched.  Alaskans, Welsh, and Scandinavians were contaminated by Soviet bomb tests at Novaya Zemlya.  Australians and Pacific Islanders were raked by fallout from U.S., British, and French fission and fusion blasts conducted in a wide swath of the Pacific Ocean.  Chinese and Soviet nuclear scientists set off explosions that polluted the Eurasian interior, Indians exploded underground atomic bombs close to the Pakistani border endangering water aquifers while their neighbors responded with fission blasts of their own.  Despite decades of U.S. military classification of the effects of such tests as ‘Top Secret’ and unavailable to the public, eventually dedicated scientists and researchers ascertained the impacts on the United States and the planet.  The Nevada tests delivered to milk-drinking children across the U.S. and the world an average collective dose of radioactive iodine similar to people living in the contaminated zones of the April 1986 Chernobyl nuclear plant accident.  Rates of thyroid cancer in the U.S. tripled between 1974 and 2013 and better detection did not account for all or even most of these increases as some nuclear apologists argued.  In Europe and North America, childhood leukemia, once a medical rarity, increased substantially every year after 1950.  Even today, Australia, hit by Pacific test fallout, still has the highest incidence of childhood cancer worldwide.  Award-winning environmentalist and nuclear historian Kate Brown, who cataloged all these dire global impacts in a recent book, justifiably called the period of nuclear testing “the most unhinged suicidal chapter in human history.”  Unfortunately today as the world is gripped by yet another insane nuclear arms race, one wonders if this forgotten history will be repeated again by a current generation of global Dr. Strangeloves to the extreme detriment of 21st century populations.  Global citizenry must rise up and demand no more nuclear testing and the elimination forever of these doomsday weapons! (Sources:  Kate Brown. “Manual for Survival: A Chernobyl Guide to the Future.” New York: W.W. Norton and Co., 2019, pp. 309-312 and Thomas B. Cochran, William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Milton M. Hoenig. “Nuclear Weapons Databook: Volume II.” Natural Resources Defense Council, 1987, p.153.)

  • UPENN International Affairs Association: Annual Penn Peace Project Conference

    On October 21, UPENN’s International Affairs Association convened its annual conference with the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. The conference focused on the impact of nuclear weapons and climate change in the South Pacific. Ambassador Dr. Prasad of Fiji, Ambassador Teburoro Tito of Kiribati; H.E. Mr. Ali’ioaiga Feturi Elisaia of Samoa; and Ms. Charlotte Skerten of New Zealand spoke at the event.

    Ambassador Prasad of Fiji provided a moving and holistic overview on how the region suffered from the impact of nuclear testing.  More than 300 nuclear weapons were detonated in the region, which caused widespread suffering amongst the citizens of the region and irradiated significant areas of the South Pacific. He also expressed profound sadness about the victims of nuclear testing. His presentation laid the foundation for the subsequent speakers, who elaborated upon his comments and specified the tragedy of nuclear testing.

    Building upon Ambassador Prasad’s comments, H.E. Mr. Ali’ioaiga Feturi Elisaia of Samoa discussed the physical and emotional scars of the victims of nuclear testing. The Ambassador also mentioned the importance of the entry-into-force of the Treaty of Rarontonga and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Moreover, he lamented about the failure amongst the Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) to fulfill their obligations set forth in Article VI of the NPT.

    Due to their refusal to comply with the obligations set forth in Article VI of the NPT, it is necessary for states to support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).  He underscored that the TPNW is an essential legal instrument in the nuclear disarmament architecture and will help establish a world free of nuclear weapons.

    The Ambassador also touched upon how climate change is an existential threat to both the Pacific Islands and all citizens. He underscored the importance of the Paris Climate Conference and the agreement about 1.5C increase.

    Ambassador Teburoro Tito of Kiribati discussed the devastating effects of the nuclear testing on Christmas Island by the United Kingdom.  The UK tested a series of four nuclear weapons in 1957 and 1958 at Malden Island and Kiritimati (Christmas Island) in the Pacific Ocean as part of the British hydrogen bomb program. Nine nuclear explosions were initiated.

    The Ambassador further mentioned that the explosions illuminated the night’s sky and it felt that the sun rose during the middle of the night. Eventually, the citizens discovered the dark-side of humanity. As a result of the legacy of nuclear tests, the Ambassador announced that he is in consultations with the President of Kiribati to establish a regional center about the TPNW on Christmas Island.

    As the final speaker, Ms. Charlotte Skerten discussed the Auckland Conference, which New Zealand convened for the Pacific Islands in December of 2018. The conference examined and took stock of the treaty within the context of the Pacific and its legacy of nuclear testing. She further shared that a global youth forum on the TPNW was held in connection to the Auckland Conference. At the forum, young U.S. and Pacific students shared their views about nuclear disarmament. Mr. Christian N. Ciobanu served as a co-chair of the Forum.

    Significantly, in connection to the discussion about the Auckland Conference, Ambassador Prasad proposed that Fiji should host the next conference. This option could be explored further once Fiji ratifies the TPNW.

    During the discussion with the audience, the ambassadors encouraged the students to become activists and take action. Responding to the encouragement, the students expressed interest in the movement and becoming involved. Many of them thought about how they could take action. Additionally, the majority of the participants felt very overwhelmed about the tragedy of nuclear testing in the region.

  • Which Would You Prefer―Nuclear War or Climate Catastrophe?

    Which Would You Prefer―Nuclear War or Climate Catastrophe?

    To:      The people of the world

    From:  The Joint Public Relations Department of the Great Powers

    The world owes an enormous debt of gratitude to Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Boris Johnson, and other heroic rulers of our glorious nations.  Not only are they hard at work making their respective countries great again, but they are providing you, the people of the world, with a choice between two opportunities for mass death and destruction.

    Throughout the broad sweep of history, leaders of competing territories and eventually nations labored at fostering human annihilation, but, given the rudimentary state of their technology, were only partially successful.  Yes, they did manage to slaughter vast numbers of people through repeated massacres and constant wars.  The Thirty Years War of 1618-1648, for example, resulted in more than 8 million casualties, a substantial portion of Europe’s population.  And, of course, World Wars I and II, supplemented by a hearty dose of genocide along the way, did a remarkably good job of ravaging populations, crippling tens of millions of survivors, and blasting much of world civilization to rubble.  Even so, despite the best efforts of national rulers and the never-ending glory they derived from these events, large numbers of people somehow survived.

    Therefore, in August 1945, the rulers of the great powers took a great leap forward with their development―and immediate use―of a new, advanced implement for mass destruction:  nuclear weapons.  Harry Truman, Winston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin were all eager to employ atomic bombs against the people of Japan.  Upon receiving the news that the U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima had successfully obliterated the population of that city, Truman rejoiced and called the action “the greatest thing in history.”

    Efforts to enhance national grandeur followed during subsequent decades, as the rulers of the great powers (and some pathetic imitators) engaged in an enormous nuclear arms race.  Determined to achieve military supremacy, they spared no expense, employed Nazi scientists and slave labor, and set off vast nuclear explosions on the lands of colonized people and in their own countries.  By the 1980s, about 70,000 nuclear weapons were under their command―more than enough to destroy the world many times over.  Heartened by their national strength, our rulers threw down the gauntlet to their enemies and predicted that their nations would emerge victorious in a nuclear war.

    But, alas, the public, failing to appreciate these valiant efforts, grew restive―indeed, disturbingly unpatriotic.  Accordingly, they began to sabotage these advances by demanding that their governments step back from the brink of nuclear war, forgo nuclear buildups, and adopt nuclear arms control and disarmament treaties.  The popular clamor became so great that even Ronald Reagan―a longtime supporter of nuclear supremacy and “winnable” nuclear wars―crumpled.  Championing nuclear disarmament, he began declaring that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”  National glory had been sacrificed on the altar of a cowardly quest for human survival.

    Fortunately, those days are long past.  In the United States, President Trump is determined to restore America’s greatness by scrapping nuclear arms control and disarmament agreements, spending $1.7 trillion on refurbishing the entire U.S. nuclear weapons complex, and threatening to eradicate other nations through nuclear war.  Meanwhile, the president’s good friends in Moscow, Beijing, London, Paris, New Delhi, and elsewhere are busy spurring on their own national nuclear weapons buildups.  As they rightly insist:  The only way to stop a bad nation with the Bomb is with a good nation with the Bomb.

    Nor is that all!  Recently, our rulers have opened up a second opportunity for a planetary destruction:  climate catastrophe.  Some scientists, never satisfied with leaving the running of public affairs to their wise rulers, have claimed that, thanks to the burning of fossil fuels, rising temperatures are melting the polar icecaps, heightening sea levels, and causing massive hurricanes and floods, desertification, agricultural collapse, and enormous wildfires.  As a result, they say, human and other life forms are on their way to extinction.

    These scientists―and the deluded people who give them any credence―are much like the critics of nuclear weapons:  skeptics, nay-sayers, and traitorously indifferent to national grandeur.  By contrast, our rulers understand that any curbing of the use of fossil fuels—or, for that matter, any cutbacks in the sale of the products that make our countries great―would interfere with corporate profits, undermine business growth and expansion, and represent a retreat from the national glory that is their due.  Consequently, even if by some remote chance we are entering a period of climate disruption, our rulers will refuse to give way before these unpatriotic attacks.  As courageous leaders, they will never retreat before the prospect of your mass death and destruction.

    We are sure that you, as loyal citizens, are as enthusiastic as we are about this staunch defense of national glory.  So, if you notice anyone challenging this approach, please notify your local Homeland Security office.  Meanwhile, rest assured, our governments will also be closely monitoring these malcontents and subversives!

    Naturally, your rulers would love to have your feedback.  Therefore, we are submitting to you this question:  Which would you prefer―destruction by nuclear war or destruction by climate catastrophe?  Nuclear war will end your existence fairly quickly through blast or fire, although your death would be slower and more agonizing if you survived long enough to die of radiation sickness or starvation.  On the other hand, climate catastrophe has appealing variety, for you could die by fire, water, or hunger.  Or you might simply roast slowly thanks to unbearable temperatures.

    We’d appreciate receiving your opinion on this matter.  After all, providing you with this kind of choice is a vital part of making our nations great again!

  • This Summer in Nuclear Threat History

    July 2, 1945 – On this date, U.S. Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson’s memorandum to President Harry S. Truman concluded that, “…we have enormous factors in our favor and any step which can be taken to translate those advantages into a prompt and successful conclusion of the war should be taken.” Stimson reiterated to President Truman his earlier belief that the Japanese would react positively to a warning or ultimatum for conditional surrender which also offered appropriate assurances that the Japanese emperor Hirohito (considered by almost the entirety of the Japanese people as the godhead of their Shinto religion – the 124th in direct line of descent from the sun goddess Amaterasu – in other words, a divine being or Son of Heaven) would not be charged with war crimes, deposed, or subjected to imprisonment or execution. Also critical was the Emperor’s almost unprecedented secular intervention in the form of cables (intercepted and translated by the Allies) that were sent from the Japanese Foreign Minister Togo to Ambassador Sato in Moscow on July 13-14 which stated, “His Majesty, the Emperor…desires from his heart that it [the war] may be quickly terminated.” These and related facts could have created momentum for the U.S. and its allies (with the possible exception of the Soviet Union which was bound by agreements signed with the U.S. and Britain to enter the war with Japan [which it did on August 8, 1945] spurred on in part by its desire to reacquire territory it lost in the 1905 Russo-Japanese War) to end the war with Japan before the August 6 and 9 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Instead, the excuse of dropping the bombs to prevent huge hypothetical casualties (both American and Japanese) in an upcoming invasion of Japan, an argument made largely irrelevant by the Soviet declaration of war against Imperial Japan, which convinced the Japanese that continued fighting was even more pointless, held sway both then and today. The President, Secretary of State James Byrnes, Manhattan Project director General Leslie R. Groves, a majority of the Congress (incensed with the possibility that two billion dollars were spent for a superweapon that would not be used), and other hardliners felt it was essential to demonstrate the destructiveness of the Bomb and press America’s atomic diplomatic strength in its future postwar dealings with the Soviet Union. (Source: Gar Alperovitz. “The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb and the Architecture of An American Myth.” New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1995, pp. 35, 232-35, 667-68.)

    July 16-22, 1994 – 21 fragments of the shattered comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, the largest of which was approximately 2.5 miles in diameter, impacted the planet Jupiter with an approach speed of sixty kilometers a second (130,000 miles-per-hour). The explosions that followed were estimated to total in the range of six to twenty million megatons of TNT, hundreds of times more than all of the world’s nuclear weapons. Temperatures rose as high as the surface of the sun (10,000+ degrees centigrade) and fireballs 5,000 miles across spewed out through chimneys the comet fragments drilled into the gas giant planet’s atmosphere. Comment: In retrospect, humanity should realize that the tremendous chaos and violence of the Cosmos, including not only comet/asteroid impacts, but immense stellar explosions, entire galaxies wracked by deadly gamma ray bursts, and huge black holes and quasars, all pervade this gigantically large universe. Cannot humans with their intellect, wisdom, and morality recognize that our planet was always meant to be an oasis from this violence. That one purpose of our species’ evolution is to preserve, protect, and expand this zone of stability and peace. For, in our ego and superego, should we choose nuclear violence, our intellect knows that our puny efforts pale before the violence of nature. Therefore, we choose peace! The entirety of our species must recognize that nuclear devices are doomsday weapons that must never be exploded anywhere under, on, or near the Earth’s surface or above the atmosphere in near-Earth space. In future decades when humanity has dramatically reduced the number of nuclear weapons, while also verifying these global reductions by more sophisticated technical means, it may be necessary however to retain an internationally controlled arsenal of perhaps a hundred nuclear weapons to be used in the worst-case scenario, if more traditional means are unavailable, in order to divert an asteroid or comet that threatens to impact our planet. (Sources: James R. Asker. “Jupiter Comet is a Smash Hit.” Aviation Week & Space Technology. July 24, 1994, pp. 20-22, Douglas Messier. “Nuking Dangerous Asteroids Might Be The Best Protection, Expert Says.” Space.com. May 29, 2013 https://www.space.com/21333-asteroid-nuke-spacecraft-mission.html and James Reston, Jr. “Collision Course: Jupiter is About to be Walloped by a Comet.” Time, May 23, 1994, pp. 54-61.)

    July 27, 1956 – During a training exercise, a U.S. B-47 bomber crashed into a storage bunker holding three Mark 6 nuclear bombs at Lakenheath Air Force Base near Suffolk, England killing the entire crew. Bomb disposal experts later determined that it was a miracle that one Mark 6 bomb (with a potential yield in the range of 6-180 kilotons) with an unprotected, exposed nuclear detonator did not explode. If it had, this “Broken Arrow” nuclear accident might have inadvertently triggered World War III! Many years later, Sandia National Laboratory reported that at least 1,200 nuclear weapons were involved in significant accidents just in the period between 1950 and 1968. In 1968 alone it was reported that approximately seventy missiles armed with nuclear warheads had been struck by lightning. Comments: Many of the thousands of serious violations of security protocols, accidents, and other nuclear weapons incidents involving all nine nuclear weapons states still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny. These near-nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating global nuclear weapons arsenals. (Source: Eric Schlosser. “Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.” New York: Penguin Press, 2013, pp. 170, 327-329, 556.)

    August 3-31, 2019 – Pentagon spokespersons indicated on March 13, 2019 that the United States military will take advantage of the Trump Administration’s withdrawal from the 1987 INF Treaty (U.S. adherence to the treaty technically ends on August 2, 2019) by testing two new non-treaty compliant short- to intermediate-range tactical nuclear weapons, specifically a low-flying advanced ground-based cruise missile with a potential range of 1,000 kilometers during the month of August. The other weapon system, to be tested in the coming months after August 2019 will be another non-treaty complaint weapon, a 3,000 to 4,000 kilometer-range ballistic missile. Neither would be nuclear-armed a Pentagon official told reporters but of course those systems are obviously nuclear-capable. Equipped with conventional or “low-yield” nuclear warheads, these platforms would be capable of striking Russian weapons or command and control targets with very little warning. The spokesperson said that these newly deployed weapons will give the U.S. more flexibility “to tailor the approach of deterring one or more potential adversaries in difficult circumstances.” This capability would allow the Pentagon to use nuclear weapons in a wider range of potential scenarios which presumably would include responding to a cyberattack on U.S. command and control facilities or even a general cyberattack on the U.S. homeland by exploding a nuclear weapon a hundred miles above our nation, which would cause an EMP (electro-magnetic pulse) effect to negatively impact not only U.S. military computers but also e-commerce and e-utilities in the U.S. or an allied nation. The Pentagon thinks these new non-treaty compliant weapons will make such attacks less likely. Comments: Experts like Michael Klare argue that the dangers of such a policy are stark. These deployments could result in destabilizing nuclear deterrence by having the Russian and Chinese, and possibly other nuclear weapons states that see the U.S. as a threat, adopt a policy of launch-on-warning. Klare also argues that, “No Russian leader could ever assume an American president would refrain from retaliating with nuclear arms against a Russian nuclear strike (however ‘low yield’).” And Klare notes that if escalation toward a larger nuclear war is somehow avoided, “even the unlikely use of just one so-called low yield nuclear device will produce a humanitarian catastrophe so vast as to outweigh any conceivable advantage from their deployment or single use.” Similarly House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-WA) noted that, “If you introduce them (low-yield nuclear weapons), you cannot predict what your adversaries are going to counter with (hypersonic offshore SLBMs, orbital nuclear bombs like the old Soviet FOBs, etc) and an all-out nuclear war is the likely result, with the complete destruction of the planet.” (Sources: Robert Burns. “Pentagon Plans Tests of Long-Banned Types of Missiles.” Associated Press. March 13, 2019 https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/03/13/pentagon-plans-tests-o… and Michael T. Klare. “Making Nuclear Weapons Menacing Again.” The Nation. March 21, 2019 http://www.thenation.com/article/us-nuclear-arsenal-triad/?link_id=9&can_id=943a553d03… both accessed April 17, 2019.)

    August 2, 2007 – Three presidential election campaigns ago, then Democratic presidential candidate Barack H. Obama, who later was elected the 44th President of the United States, was asked an unusual yet seminal question about nuclear weapons, a matter that strangely isn’t usually considered a paramount issue by the mainstream corporate news media. Candidate Obama was asked if elected whether he might use nuclear weapons in Afghanistan or Pakistan to defeat terrorism and specifically target Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. He replied, “I think it would be a profound mistake for us to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance…involving civilians.” While this was at least a good starting place to begin to answer this question from the perspective of the global nuclear abolition movement, he should have also discussed the short- and long-term impact of the horrific impact of the use of even a so-called smaller yield nuclear weapon (including blast effects, shock waves, and radioactive fallout spread by the winds to potentially a very large geographic area in the region) on the large number of innocent noncombatant civilians in the target zone as well as the tremendous potential for first use (in combat since 1945) to serve as a trip-wire for other nations’ likelihood of striking their enemies with these unconscionable weapons. However, apparently not wanting to appear too much of a dovish future commander-in-chief, he quickly added, “Let me scratch that. There’s been no discussion of nuclear weapons. That’s not on the table.” His Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, then responded to Obama’s statement by informing a Reuters’ reporter, “Presidents never take the nuclear option off the table.” Almost a decade later, then candidate Donald Trump on March 30, 2016 said essentially the same thing to reporter Chris Matthews while also adding some hair-raising, shocking rhetoric about the possibility that he might actually pull the nuclear trigger for any number of reasons if he was elected president. Comments: These frightening comments by recent political candidates to include two sitting presidents, especially those by former President Barack Obama who specifically spoke out numerous times about eliminating nuclear weapons and won a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts, are particularly disturbing. Unfortunately, it seems clear that the military-industrial-Congressional-corporate news media-Democratic-Republican complex will not legitimize candidates who express any substantial doubt, reservation, or even modest adjustments to the long established and worshipped U.S.-fabricated theory of nuclear deterrence. But in the current era of a rejuvenated Cold War and a commitment by essentially all nine nuclear weapons states to modernize and expand their existing nuclear arsenals, it is paramount that this dire global state of affairs must change. And this change must come now in the midst of the 2020 U.S. presidential election campaign! The stakes are too high to allow only a small clique of top political and military leaders to tell the rest of humanity what should and should not be true regarding these doomsday weapons and the so-called promises of the flawed, imperfect theory of nuclear deterrence that we have put so much misguided faith in. The late planetary astronomer, science educator, and nuclear winter theorist, Carl Sagan (1934-1996) may have said it best, “For we are the local embodiment of the Cosmos grown to self-awareness…Our loyalties are to the species and the planet. We speak for Earth. Our obligation to survive is owed not just to ourselves but also to that Cosmos, ancient and vast, from which we spring.” (Sources: Daniel Ellsberg. “The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner.” New York: Bloomsbury, 2017, pp. 329, 331, and 382 and various mainstream and alternative news media sources.)

    August 28, 2018 – The California State Senate, which passed Assembly Joint Resolution 33 earlier in August, on this date formally adopted this resolution which called upon the federal government and other national leaders to work toward signing and ratifying the July 7, 2017 United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The resolution also urged the U.S. government to make nuclear disarmament the centerpiece of national security policy and spearhead a global effort to prevent nuclear war which, “poses(s) an intolerable risk to human survival.” Like dozens of other similar resolutions adopted by numerous global jurisdictions including U.S. cities and states such as Baltimore and Los Angeles in 2018, Washington, DC, Salt Lake City, Hawaii and Oregon in 2019 many of these critical legislative enactments also propose U.S. renunciation of the first use of nuclear weapons, ending the President’s sole unchecked authority to launch a nuclear attack, taking nuclear weapons off their highly dangerous hair-trigger alert status, cancelling the U.S. plan to modernize and replace its entire nuclear arsenal with enhanced weapons (at an estimated cost of $1.7 trillion over the next 30 years), and actively pursuing a verifiable agreement among nuclear-armed states to recognize the real long-term threat of nuclear war by miscalculation, accident, misperception, or unauthorized launch by taking concrete steps to eliminate all nuclear arsenals on the planet. Comments: Over the many decades since nuclear weapons were first invented, powerful, entrenched elites that have enriched the One Percent and brainwashed the other 99 Percent into believing that the only way to survive for countless generations and guarantee antiquated nation-state sovereignty is to threaten to kill hundreds of millions of other inhabitants of the planet, are very slowly but also very methodically losing support for their bankrupt mantras of “Peace Through Strength” and “Nuclear Weapons Keep Us Safe.” Global antinuclear activism has spread from a small group of Manhattan Project physicists to include a plethora of business, legal and scientific leaders, celebrities, and politicians and is growing exponentially to include hundreds of millions of average global citizenry. Legislative, philosophical, scientific, environmental, medical, psychological, and other rationales are daily convincing larger and larger numbers of inhabitants of our fragile planet to reject so-called common sense wisdom about these doomsday weapons and trigger the beginning of the end of the Era of Nuclear Terror that has plagued the human species since 1945. Many antinuclear struggles remain to be fought and won but a dim light at the end of the tunnel is growing brighter each and every day. (Sources: Monique Limon. “California Assembly Joint Resolution 33 – Full Text.” Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. August 29, 2018 (https://wagingpeace.davidmolinaojeda.com/california-assembly-joint-resolution-33-full-text/?link_id-=17… accessed April 17, 2019 and other mainstream and alternative news sources.)

    September 5, 1945 – Less than thirty days after the horrendous atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan by U.S. aircraft, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) became one of the first global organizations to call for the elimination of nuclear weapons – a position that it has consistently held for almost 75 years. The ICRC website notes that, “Since its creation in 1863, the organization’s sole objective has been to ensure protection and assistance for victims of armed conflict and other forms of organized violence. Its story is about the development of humanitarian action, the Geneva Conventions (the First Geneva Convention was enacted by a dozen nations in August of 1864 in order to mandate the compulsory care for all wounded soldiers on the battlefield regardless of which side they were on), and the Red Cross and the Red Crescent Movement.” Comments: Countless number of organizations, governmental bodies, private groups, and individuals have embraced nuclear abolition including most especially the global medical community which has long recognized how utterly impossible it would be to address a post-apocalypse scenario, even a so-called “limited” nuclear war. For that reason, the World Medical Association, through a number of Declarations made in the last few decades at Geneva, Helsinki, and Tokyo has asserted that it is the duty of medical professionals worldwide to work toward the elimination of nuclear weapons. (Sources: Ira Helfand, et.al., “The Growing Threat of Nuclear War and the Role of the Health Community.” World Medical Journal. Vol.62, No. 3, October 2016, p. 91 http://lab.arstubiedriba.lv/WMJ/vol62/3-october-2016/slides/slide-7.jpg and “Eliminating Nuclear Weapons.” International Committee for the Red Cross, May 1, 2015 https://www.icrc.org/en/document/nuclkear-weapons-conference and “History.” International Committee for the Red Cross. https://www.icrc.org/en/who-we-are/history
    all of which were accessed on April 27, 2019.)

    September 11, 2001 – Nineteen hijackers, 15 of whom were Saudi nationals, crashed four commercial aircraft onto U.S. territory destroying the World Trade Center in New York City and partially damaging the Pentagon in Washington, DC in an attack that killed nearly 3,000 people. If the 9-11 attack had been conducted using a nuclear weapon, the impact would have been incredibly worse. For instance, if Manhattan Island was struck by a 150 kiloton terrorist-fabricated nuclear fission bomb (although experts think it more likely the yield would be significantly smaller) exploded in the heart of downtown during daytime hours, the results would be devastating. Estimated fatalities would be over 800,000 people with at least another 900,000-plus injuries not including those caused by later post-blast firestorms. The bombing would result in 20 square miles of property damage not to mention catastrophic impacts on global financial markets if Wall Street was located in or near ground zero. Comments: While the U.S. and other nuclear weapon states are presumably continuing a long-term commitment to prevent theft and illicit diversion of fissile materials needed by terrorists, subnational groups, or smaller nation-states to fabricate nuclear devices, ironically it appears that the 9-11 attack may have made it more likely that a nuclear war could occur. Garrett M. Graff’s book “Raven Rock: The Story of the U.S. Government’s Secret Plan to Save Itself While the Rest of Us Die” has pointed out that thousands of leaders in the U.S. (and by inference, probably the other eight nuclear weapon states) have spent many billions of dollars since the nuclear age began in 1945, and reenergized such spending after September 11, 2001, to ensure the Continuity of Government (COG) and Continuity Of Operations Plan (COOP). Or in more blunt terms (although also somewhat inconsistent with the Nuclear Winter Theory that holds that nuclear wars will trigger the deaths of billions due to the huge amount of post-nuclear strike dust, debris, and firestorm residue that will cloud the Earth’s atmosphere and blot out the sun causing temperatures to plummet and agricultural yields to zero out), the leaders of these nations have created a decades-old secret world of hundreds of hidden bunkers that Graff argues, “is more expansive, powerful, and capable today of ensuring their survival” (as well as many of their family members and professional staff), while at the same time the public has absolutely no hope of surviving a full-scale nuclear conflict. The seminal question that must be asked is: Do these selfish, amoral leaders of the U.S., Russia and other Nuclear Club members really and truly believe that the destruction of global civilization and up to ninety-nine percent or more of our species could in any way be justified rationally? Even the remotest possibility that these set of beliefs exist should make the whole of humanity redouble its efforts to prevent this scenario from ever occurring by pushing even harder for the total elimination of these doomsday weapons. (Sources: Garrett M. Graff. “Raven Rock: The Story of the U.S. Government’s Secret Plan to Save Itself While the Rest of Us Die.” New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017, p. xxiv. and Carrie Rossenfeld, Chris Griffith, et al., “New York City Example.” Nuclear Pathways Project, National Science Foundation’s National Science Digital Library. See www.atomicarchive.com/Example/Example1 accessed April 24, 2019.)

    September 18-19, 1980 – At nuclear launch complex 374-7 located near Little Rock Air Force Base, in Southside, a few miles north of Damascus, Arkansas, a maintenance accident involving a Titan II intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) resulted in three separate explosions that caused a W53 nine megaton nuclear warhead to be thrown several hundred feet from its silo. A technician from the 308th Strategic Missile Wing of the U.S. Air Force, while manipulating an airborne disconnect pressure cap, accidentally dropped a socket wrench which fell 70 feet and ricocheted off the Titan II missile causing a fuel leak that later triggered the explosions that killed or injured several airmen. Thankfully fail-safe devices on the warhead prevented an unintended nuclear explosion. Comments: Hundreds of nuclear incidents including Broken Arrow accidents, involving many armed nuclear devices, have occurred over the decades despite some innovative safety measures pushed on the Pentagon by U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories and nongovernmental experts. Nevertheless, the safest long-term solution to preventing an accidental or unintentional nuclear war is the total or near-total global elimination of these weapons of mass destruction. (Source: Eric Schlosser. “Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.” New York: Penguin Press, 2013.)

  • Thermonuclear Monarchy and a Sleeping Citizenry

    Thermonuclear Monarchy and a Sleeping Citizenry

    This is a transcript of the 18th Annual Frank K. Kelly Lecture on Humanity’s Future, delivered by Elaine Scarry on May 9, 2019 in Santa Barbara, California. A video of the lecture is available here.

    It’s a tremendous pleasure to be a guest of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and the group of people who run it—David, Rick, Richard Falk, Rob Laney, Sandy, Sarah, and others—and I’m also very grateful to all of you for coming out tonight. It’s a special honor to be talking in terms of humanity’s future, and because that’s the title, I thought that I would begin by just mentioning the fact that when I work on nuclear disarmament, I’ve often noticed that one of the groups of people that is most worried about nuclear weapons is composed of astronomers and astrophysicists. When I first noticed this I was kind of surprised by it, because whereas the rest of us is are thinking all the time about the Earth, I take it that astronomers are often thinking about worlds way beyond the Earth, like other galaxies outside the Milky Way. This one galaxy, for example, contained several hundred billion stars, many of which have planets. So it seemed remarkable that astronomers should care about this little piece of ground in the universe.

    This next particular photograph—although it’s showing a very tiny piece of the sky—contains thousands of galaxies, just within one galaxy cluster, and each of those galaxies has billions of stars. When I asked somebody named Martin Reese, who’s a royal astronomer of Britain, why he was so concerned about it, given that he spent so much of his mental life outside of our own terrain, he said that if you’re an astronomer looking at that other world, you actually care more about the Earth because you realize that what we have here is nowhere else to be found in the universe. That there is no life, certainly no intelligent life, elsewhere in the universe, so the miracle of it being back here seems especially precious.

    I also asked another astronomer at the Hubble telescope, Mario Livio, the same question. And he gave the same answer: how extraordinary it was to be always having once mental life projected out into this world of other universes, and to find again and again that there was no other life, or certainly intelligent life, out there. Mario Livio went on to explain that several decades ago a famous scientist named Fermi pointed out that it’s almost incomprehensible, given the number of planets that recreate the conditions necessary for life, that we haven’t yet encountered other life. This has come to be known in science as Fermi’s paradox—the fact that there are so many millions of places that ought to be showing us life, and yet we haven’t found it. Mario Livio said that different explanations are given for this, and one is that very early in the history of life on a planet, a bottleneck occurs, in particular a bottleneck that occurs in going from one-cell organisms to multi-cell organisms.

    On our own planet, one cell organisms appeared almost the moment the Earth was created—almost the moment it cooled down enough to support life—but multi-celled creatures only occurred millions of years later. It may be that the jump from one cell to multi-cell is just too hard to get through. We luckily got through it, but Mario Livio said there’s also another bottleneck that occurs not at an early moment, but in a late moment. This, by the way, is the reason that most people speculate why we’re not finding life on other galaxies. The explanation is that any group of creatures intelligent enough to have interstellar communication will also be smart enough to blow themselves up. They will, and they have—it is almost certain that other civilizations have existed and have not made it through the particular eye of the needle that we’re trying to get through right now. It’s for that reason that everybody on Earth—all our resources on Earth—all our ingenious scientists, and humanists, and theologians should be working together to get our planet through something that other planets haven’t gotten through, rather than working at odds.

    Now, I don’t know what the weapons system looked like on these other planets, but this is what it looks like on our planet. The screen isn’t perfect here, but I have just a couple of key things to say about it. Each of the little icons has to be multiplied by five. The total arsenal on Earth is over 14,000 right now, so if this were representing each of the warheads you’d have to take this number and multiply it by five, it would go away beyond any piece of paper that could hold it—we can just multiply it in our minds.

    The key thing to know is that the United States and Russia together own 93% of all the missiles. Everything from about three o’clock around to about seven o’clock is owned by the United States, and everything from there up to one o’clock is owned by Russia. That little wedge you see between one and two o’clock are the other seven nuclear states. The other thing to know about that is that countries that we’re always hearing about are not on there. Iraq isn’t on there, because Iraq doesn’t have nuclear weapons. Iran isn’t on there, because Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons. North Korea is on there, but it’s the country with the smallest arsenal. Some people put North Korea’s estimates as high as 60, but the most reliable estimates say that it’s 20 or fewer. Comparatively, the United States right now has over 6,000.

    It is a specific kind of architecture that is most to the credit (or discredit) of the United States and Russia, who have one third of their arsenals on hair trigger alert. Now, the next thing to know about is this particular physical architecture. Tonight I’m going to be talking about both the physical architecture of nuclear weapons, and the mental architecture that keeps that physical architecture in place, but for a few minutes I’m just going to be talking about the physical architecture.

    We’ve started with the simple fact that every weapon has two ends: the end from which it’s fired, and the end to which it does the injury. That’s true of a gun: there’s one person injured at this end, and there’s one person firing at this end. Sometimes things are slightly out of ratio, for example, if it’s a machine gun, there’s one person firing at this end, and there might be 50 people who are injured at this end.

    Nuclear weapons are extraordinary at both ends of the weapon, because there is a catastrophically high number of people who are being injured. And not just people, but plants, animals, birds, and bio-plankton in the oceans, that are being slaughtered by the weapon. The most recent estimates on nuclear winter say that if even a tiny fraction of the world arsenal is used, and the fraction that used is 1/100th of 1% of the total blast power that you saw pictured there, 44 million people will be casualties on the first afternoon, and 1 billion people will die within the first month. The level of injury is extraordinary. Now, the firing end of the weapon is also extraordinary, because it’s done by one person. We only think that in this country we came close with the Cuban missile crisis because that was the only crisis that was made public, but we know that Eisenhower twice considered using nuclear weapons—once in the Taiwan Strait in 1954 and once in Berlin in 1959. John Kennedy, according to Robert McNamara, three times—not once in Cuba, but three times—came within a hair’s breadth of all out nuclear war. Lyndon Johnson considered dropping a nuclear weapon in China in order to prevent it from getting a nuclear weapon. Nixon has said that he four times considered dropping a nuclear weapon. By “considered using a nuclear weapon”, he doesn’t mean just a stray thought that went through his mind. In Nixon’s case, he sent 18 B-52s loaded with nuclear weapons out over Russia, and back again. In his mind it was a feint—an exercise—but it could have led to utter disaster.

    I begin by stressing this because the language we use tends to underscore only the first fact—the fact that an extraordinary number of people are killed—and we need language like “Weapons of Mass Destruction” that registers the fact that there is this outrageous level of injury posed by these weapons.

    Yet we also have to look at the extraordinary, and almost equally obscene, fact that one person in our own country stands ready to launch the weapons. That’s of course true of Trump, but it’s also true of every president who’s been in the Nuclear Age. If we were to go back two slides to the chart, and if we took this whole thing as the weapon, were that whole arsenal to be used the Earth would be completely destroyed, and all creatures on it. How many people would be responsible for the launch? There are nine nuclear states, and so it would be close to nine individuals, but it might even go as high as 20 or 30 people in some cases. For example, in the UK, we know that the prime minister has a sealed envelope that tells their submarine captains—if they can’t reach them in a nuclear exchange—whether they should go ahead and obliterate Russia or not. So now maybe we have to not just count the Prime Minister, but also the submarine captain—but maybe 30 people. If you imagine that on another planet, and you imagine there were billions of people on that planet, wouldn’t you think the billions of people there could come up with something to get the 30 people to go into a room, sit them down, and say to them: “You’re not coming out until you figure out how to dismantle these things.” Something like that is what we probably need to do.

    The other reason I wanted to start by emphasizing the fact that a nuclear weapon, or any weapon, has both the end from which it’s fired, and the end to which it’s injured, is because the laws that address this, and that can help us get rid of these things, fall into two categories. This a slight overstatement, but I still think it’s true. By and large, international law addresses the injuring side of the weapon. International law, like the current ban on nuclear weapons that is being ratified country by country, is addressed to the humanitarian consequences of these weapons, and to the illegality, in terms of international law, of that kind of suffering. In 1995, when there was a case at the International Court of Justice where 78 countries went to the court to ask that nuclear weapons be declared illegal, the international legal rules that were used all addressed the suffering end of the weapon. For example, the Geneva protocols, The Hague, and the conventions against genocide were all things that said you’re not allowed to cause disproportionate suffering, or you’re not allowed to cause suffering that that passes over the boundaries of a country into a neutral country, or you’re not allowed to destroy the ozone layer, or you’re not allowed to destroy the environment. Those are all crucial international laws, and the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation has done an amazing thing by working to get states to support this international ban. California is the first, and so far the only state that has signed on in support of the ban and it’s got a crucial chance of doing some real good.

    The national laws, and the ones I’m going to speak about, address the other side of the weapon. They they address the agency side—the firing end of the weapon. They essentially prohibit the kind of arrangement that we currently have, which is a thermonuclear monarchy. It’s one person who was empowered to not just carry out a war, but to carry out acts of genocide without getting anyone else’s okay about it. It’s wholly illegal, and it’s wholly incompatible with our own Constitution—the two are mutually exclusive. Because they’re mutually exclusive, the Atomic Age, or the Nuclear Age, has just put the Constitution aside.

    As I talk about it, one thing to be aware of is that my basic point is that we need both international and national law converging on this problem, and that the together they may help us. You can’t walk up one side of a building, but if you’ve got two sides of a building, you can use them both to get up. There’s a real difference between the two in that the injuring end of the weapon has overt ethical content. We get it. You can’t have that kind of disgraceful injury caused to a foreign population. What could these people have done that would ever mean they had deserved such a thing?

    The other one—the Constitutional law—seals it; you can’t break these rules. Yet I’m going to try to ask you to understand that they have the same magnificent ingenuity. Centuries– actually Millennia—of thinking has gone into this thing called the “social contract”, that resulted in our own constitution and the constitutions of other countries. Whereas one seems to have overt ethical content, and the other seems procedural, in fact both of them have dramatic ethical content. The constitutional one even has one slight advantage, in that international law is something that US citizens have a hard time getting traction on—that they can state their support of it, but don’t directly have a claim for demanding that it be stopped right away. The national one is an actual prescriptive requirement; the laws are already in place that can be used to say these things are illegal. In other words, the one is more aspirational, the other is more prescriptive, and together they may be able to have the force of disabling these things.

    The US Constitution essentially says this: you cannot injure a foreign population unless you have gotten a huge portion of your own population to agree that this is something necessary to do. In other words, social contracts try to put brakes on the act of injuring other people, but they allow for us to override the brakes if people are really persuaded that it is necessary. But you have to persuade many people.

    Let’s say for example, that it’s the beginning of World War II. It’s often said of World War II that essentially the whole adult American population was involved, because there were people working in factories, and people monitoring the coastlines, etc. Today, the adult population is 250 million. We have one person who stands ready to do a nuclear launch that can massacre 44 million people on one afternoon, whereas when we had conventional weapons, it would have taken, today, 250 million people to do a much lower level of injury. Or even if we went back to a much earlier war, like the 17th century. In the 17th century, people estimate that maybe only 3% of the population was involved, but 3% of our population is 9 million people. There’s nothing like that kind of democratic consultation.

    What our constitution says is you don’t just injure another population, you don’t injure another population unless two things are in place. There are two provisions that are going to possibly sound mysterious to you, because in the whole Nuclear Age–for seven decades—they have been desecrated, tarnished, and misrepresented. The first break on going to war is the requirement for a Congressional declaration of war. I’ll come back and talk about that in a few minutes. The second break on war was the right to bear arms, which today we wildly misunderstand. What the Second Amendment said was, however much injuring power our country has, it has to be equally divided among every one of us. Each of us will oversee our own small portion of it and we’ll say yes or no on it. At the time of the founding of the Constitution—of course they talked only in terms of men, which was later changed—it was inclusive, as it had to be men of all ages. It had to be man of all wealth classes. It had to be man of all geographies in the United States. Otherwise it was it was deeply unfair. You couldn’t have just some people overseeing questions of going to war or not. I’ll come back and talk about this because I know that with the tremendous misunderstanding of the right to bear arms today, it’s hard to assimilate.

    I’m going to talk for a few minutes about the first one, the Constitutional requirement for a declaration of war, which is utterly incompatible with the present arrangements we’ve had for seven decades that allows one person to initiate nuclear war. I’m going to do that by contrasting the quality of deliberation that happens in Congressional deliberation, with the quality of non-deliberation that occurs when Presidents have deliberated whether to drop an atomic weapon. In making that description, I’m drawing on a study I made on the five cases where we’ve had a Congressional declaration of war. That’s the War of 1812, the 1846 Mexican-American War, the 1898 Spanish-American War, and WWI and WWII. There has not been a declaration of war since the invention of nuclear weapons–we’ve only had authorizations of force and things like that—because presidents think, as Nixon said, “I can go into the next room, pick up the telephone, and in 25 minutes, 70 million people will be dead. Why, if I have that power, do I have to get authorization merely to invade this or that country with conventional arms?”

    And I’m going to contrast that quality of deliberation with the kind of deliberation that occurred when Eisenhower considered dropping a bomb on the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1954, and again, with the kind of non-deliberation that occurred when he considered dropping a nuclear weapon in 1959. These are the differences among them: first, Congressional deliberation is visible to the public today with radio and television. We watch it or listen to it as it occurs, but before there was radio and television, the record of what had taken place in the debate would be immediately written up, published, and distributed.

    In contrast with presidential deliberation, Eisenhower’s papers were released only 30 years after he contemplated using nuclear weapons. That’s true of the other examples I gave you as well. There’s a big time lag. Did anybody consider using atomic weapons on 9/11, when Bush stopped at Offutt Air Force Base, which was the central nervous system of our nuclear retaliation against both states and terrorists? Were they thinking about atomic weapons?

    Well, we’ll only find out 30 years from now, and by then people will say, “Well, that was long ago, I guess we don’t need to worry about that.” So one of them is public immediately. The other is considered none of the citizenry’s business or responsibility. Second, in the Congressional declaration, there’s a set of sentences that everybody during the deliberation understands is the thing that they’re thinking about. It says, “Be it enacted, in Congress, but in the House and Senate assembled, that we hereby declare that we are at war.” That’s the set of sentences they’re agreeing on. There’s no clear statement of action in the presidential deliberations.

    In the congressional deliberations, there’s a conspicuously staged vote. After the deliberations, people are called on to walk to the microphone and say yes or no. We know, to this day, that Jeanette Rankin is the one person who voted against going to war against Japan and against Germany, just as we know all the yes votes in that case. There’s a fixing of responsibility—there’s a taking of responsibility, and a vote. There’s no vote in the case of the Presidential deliberation. In the Congress, people consider themselves equal, and so they’re willing to fight with each other, and they may have the most noble of reasons. They want to get to the truth, they want to say what they think on the issue, or maybe they just want to show off. But even if they just want to show off, it gives them a motive for testing and contesting what the side that wants to go to war is saying. In the Presidential deliberation, the participants consider themselves subordinate to the president, and they don’t say anything.

    This leads to the most important difference between them—that’s the final item there—that in the Congress there’s constant testing, and contesting, and dissent. Because Congress hasn’t enacted so nobly in recent years you might find this hard to believe, but when you read the Congressional deliberations of the past, there’s a lot to be admired in the quality of deliberation. I can go into it in more detail later if you wish. In the Presidential deliberation, there is no dissent whatsoever.

    In order to bring that point home, I’ll give you the thing that is the closest to an act of dissent. In 1954, in the Taiwan Straits crisis, the Secretary of the Treasury named Humphrey says to Eisenhower, “Aren’t we going to have a hard time explaining to the American people why islands with names they’ve never even heard of, like Quemoy and Mazu, were so important that we dropped an atomic weapon?” Eisenhower reprimands and he says, “Amir, look at the maps on the wall. We’ll convince you of the strategic importance of these islands.” End of dissent. Humphrey doesn’t say anything more; no one else sitting at the table says anything more. Furthermore, two months earlier when this debate was originally going on, Eisenhower himself had said, you know, I might have a hard time convincing the American people why islands with names they’ve never heard of were important enough that I used an atomic weapon. Essentially, Humphrey had just done his homework and read the previous notes, and probably thought he was agreeing with the President. Whether we should call it an act of dissent is unclear, but for sure there was no follow up.

    In 1954, Eisenhower said that he thought he would be impeached if he dropped a nuclear weapon, but that he was willing to be impeached. He was willing to do his duty and drop the atomic weapon even though he’d be impeached. Why did he think he’d be impeached? Because he knew that the Constitution requires a Congressional Declaration of War. By 1959, e had kind of decided that if he just included a couple of Congressmen at the table, maybe that will kind of count as a Congressional participation in declaration. There was a Senator there named Senator Fulbright, a name many of you will know. At a certain point, Senator Fulbright says, “I just want to make sure I understand what’s being said here. Are we saying that the GDR, or East Germany, might take out the roadways in West Berlin, and that we might, for example, begin to repair the road? Then, that maybe a soldier on the East German sidewall shoot a rifle at the repairman—and then we’ll drop an atomic bomb?” Eisenhower said, “Well, we’re not exactly sure of the steps that will lead to the dropping of the atomic bomb.” He doesn’t say, “Senator Fulbright, you’ve lost your mind, what a ridiculous scenario!” He accepts it and the discussion proceeds, and yet again, there’s no additional dissent.

    This idea that the President acts without being tested, and without there being a kind of evaluation and rigor in trying to understand if what is being really does warrant so terrible an injury, has led, in the Nuclear Age, to even the celebration of presidents for being incomprehensible. For example, according to Arthur Schlesinger, Roosevelt came to be celebrated for the feature of inscrutability. Now we have somebody who’s able to drop an atomic weapon, and we are even okay with the fact that we don’t have a clue why he’s doing what he’s doing. He’s inscrutable—that’s the way thermonuclear monarchs are.

    If you think of George Bush (the younger George Bush) when he was President, you might remember the moment when he said, “I’m the commander. See, I don’t need to explain. I do not need to explain why I say things.” That’s also why, when constitutions were being written, they considered, “Should we give the power to declare war to the president?” They decided no. “Should we give it to the Senate?” They decided no. They decided to give it to the biggest governing body there was—today that would be roughly 535 people—because it meant that you had the greatest participation and deliberation.

    When we go to the right to bear arms, just as a moment ago I said that the Constitutional Convention wanted the largest possible body, when the Constitution went out for ratification, the States said, “Wait a minute, there’s something missing from the constitution.” That was the thing we call the Bill of Rights—the first 10 Amendments—and one of the most important was the right to bear arms. The idea of the right to bear arms is that, on a theoretical level from the point of view of social contract theory, it introduces many intervening layers of possibly resistant humanity. In other words, the Congress can declare war, but only if people agree to fight. Will there actually be a conventional war? Only if people agree to fight—is the declaration actually going to be carried out? It’s essentially a distributive amendment that gives to all of us oversight on whether we do indeed want to go to war, and it means that the arguments by of what this other country has done have to be convincing. We’re not just going to go in and slaughter people in Iran, or slaughter people in North Korea,  and not even be given an argument about what on Earth people think they’ve done to deserve that. Not with the leaders have done, but what the people have done, because it’s the people who are going to be slaughtered by it.

    Do soldiers dissent? Yes, soldiers do dissent, and wars are only fought when soldiers agree to go. There are many examples of this; Vietnam of course is a famous example. As late as 1971 there were 33,000 Vietnam war soldiers who had deserted. In the Iraq war in 2004, 2,300 soldiers deserted. By two years later, within the first six months, that number was doubled, and the Department of Defense took down the figures from their website. There are many other examples, for example, the Civil War. We now know that the north won, because 250,000 soldiers on the Southern side deserted. James C. Scott talks about that in his book, Weapons of the Weak, and a wonderful Civil War historian, a woman named Ella Lonn, writing in the 1920s, documents this. Robert E. Lee wrote dispatches saying “50 more soldiers deserted! 20 more soldiers deserted! I look behind me, and there was no one there.” The soldiers said no, and we don’t usually hear about this. We don’t hear about the fact that at the end of WWI, Churchill wanted to get soldiers to go with him into Russia to stand with the Whites against the Reds, but the soldiers wouldn’t let him. Churchill writes to Lloyd George, “I wanted to go into Russia, but the soldiers wouldn’t let me.” There were soldiers strikes all over England, and also in Canada and India to a lesser extent, and again, the soldiers acted as a break. They said enough, we’re not doing additional things.

    When I first started working on this, I wrote and published on it in a University of Pennsylvania law review. I happened to be at a research center in Berlin in 1989 or 1990, which is the year the Wall came down, and I gave a lecture about this. Of my colleagues listening to the lecture, some of whom were German, some were Americans, and some were from other countries, all of them wanted to argue that soldiers just blindly obey and blindly follow what they’re told to do. Just that year, a few months later when the Wall opened, East German soldiers, which until that point had been seen as the most disciplined army in Europe, went from 180,000 to 90,000 by desertion in six months. In the Ceausescu regime in Romania, it was soldiers brought down the regime. In Lithuania, 2000 soldiers were ordered to fire on their own populations, and they not only refused to do it, but they went into the Parliament and signed their names as saying they wouldn’t do it. It simply is not the case that soldiers blindly obey. They don’t. They think about whether the thing for which they’re being asked to fight for is really worth fighting for, and they dissent when they have to.

    It is an idea that of course is supported by militarists; Maribou in the French Revolution said you can’t have an aristocratic elite who has weapons, and the population doesn’t have weapons—that’s not fair. It’s also something that is supported by pacifists; Gandhi said of all the evil deeds committed by England against India, the worst was the disarming of the population. Give us back our arms, and we’ll tell you whether we’re going to use them or not. Gandhi’s desire was that they not be used, because he was a pacifist. He had served in the military as a young man, but he of course became a great pacifist. But his point was, you don’t even have the power to demand a pacific outcome if you’ve given up all your military rights.

    Everybody in this country right now has been deprived of their military rights. Not only have we lost the capacity for self-defense, because I don’t think anyone here thinks you can defend yourself against an incoming missile, nor can you exercise mutual aid by helping one another. The right of self-defense is the right that underlies every other right. The reason we want to have freedom of speech—there are many reasons to want freedom of speech—but the first and foremost is that it increases my ability to defend myself. I want a fair trial for many reasons, but it enables me to defend myself. We want a fair press for many reasons, but the main reason is it enables me to defend myself. So if we’ve lost the right of self-defense, that’s a big right.

    Civic stature in the United States has always followed from military stature. The 15th amendment gave blacks the right to vote primarily on the basis that 180,000 blacks had served in the Civil War, and having served militarily they had to be given the right to vote as well. The 19th Amendment gave the right to vote to women, and in suffrage pageants and plays the argument was made that women can defend themselves, and they can help defend the country. It was not as clear and tight and argument as in the case of African Americans, but it was still a very prominent thing that you can see in suffrage pageants. The 26th amendment lower the voting age from 21 to 18. What was the basis for it? The basis was that 18 year olds had served in Vietnam, and 18 year olds had argued on college campuses about the rightness or wrongness of Vietnam, and they had therefore—and I’m using Congressional language, this isn’t my language—earned for themselves and all subsequent generations the right to vote at a younger age. Civic stature follows very directly from military stature.

    Now with either of these two Constitutional rules, if I had more time I would try and convince you that these are great inventions. They’re ingenious, they should be honored and should be brought back. They’ve both been trashed in the Nuclear Age, so that we just look on them as nearly laughably empty assertions, or in the case of the right to bear arms, kind of wildly dangerous things that let people shoot school children, which is about as far from the meaning of the right to bear arms as could be. Each of them is hugely important and ingenious, but together they’re even better because they provide a double break. It means you have to get through the break of Congress, which is hard, and then you also have to get through the break of the population, and actually get them to agree to serve if they’re drafted or called upon to serve. They’re crucial because these things are so fundamental to the social contract, quite apart from the local example of the United States.

    By the way, I don’t want to minimize the importance of the US Constitution. Thomas Paine once said that the US Constitution is to human rights or democracy what an alphabet is to language. The US Constitution had the basic building blocks of what democracy is, and the two provisions we’ve just been talking about were, for centuries, seen as the most important ones. For example, Justice Story, one of our great Justices from the 19th Century, said the Constitutional requirement for a Congressional declaration of war is the cornerstone of the constitution; it’s what Congress is there to do. It does all of this other stuff, but it’s main thing is to safeguard our entry into wars. The same goes with the right to bear arms, that was repeatedly referred to as the Palladium of Liberty, but is now something very far from that.

    Because this is such an essential part of what our social contract is, it’s not surprising that these same provisions show up in the constitutions of other states. I read through the constitutions of the other nuclear states, and in the French constitution, Article 35 says to go to war you have to have Parliament’s authorization to go to war. In the Indian Constitution, Article 246 says it’s up to the Parliament to oversee matters of the country’s defense. The Russian Federation says that the leader of the country can act to defend the country up to its own borders if it’s been invaded, but if it’s going to go one step over the border, if it’s going to begin to hurt someone outside its borders, it has to have the authorization of the body that is the equivalent of our Senate. Amazingly, the Russian Federation even has a constitutional provision that looks a lot to me like the right to bear arms. What it says is, if Russia goes to war, every adult citizen of Russia is responsible for helping to defend the country. That’s also what the meaning of the right to bear arms was.

    Just so you know that these things have practical consequences, you may know that right now there are two bills in Congress, the Markey-Lieu Bill and the Warren-Smith Bill, that say this Presidential first-use of nuclear weapons has to be dismantled. Many people in the United States think that these weapons are for defense. No, during the whole Nuclear Age, we have had a Presidential first-use policy, while some of the other nuclear states do not. These are two bills that try to dismantle Presidential first use, and they do it on a Constitutional basis that it’s Congress who has to oversee our entry into war. This is something that any of us can work on very directly. For example, right now the Markey-Lieu Bill has 13 co-sponsors in the Senate, 55 cosponsors in the House.

    In my own state of Massachusetts, although both Senators are cosponsors, only two of the state’s nine representatives in the House have so-far co-sponsored it. In your state, California, only one of the two California’s Senators have co-sponsored it, and only 18 (I say “only” now—actually California has the highest number of representatives of any state cosponsoring it, but still you have a long way to go) of California’s 53, representatives have done it.

    That’s all to talk about the physical architecture of nuclear weapons, this gigantic architecture of weapons that are in place and ready to go. They are utterly incompatible with the constitution—they’re mutually exclusive—so we just got rid of the Constitution. They are utterly incompatible with the single most important role of the congress, so we just got rid of Congress, and it’s utterly incompatible with the citizenry, so we just got rid of the citizenry. That is, we no longer want to have a draft where people are called on to serve and give their opinion about what they think of the war. There was a little bit too much opinion-giving among all the people about Vietnam, so we just closed that down. Now we’ll use drones and weapons that can go right from what the President thinks to an assassination, illegal by international law. But I want to go on now and talk about the silence of the citizenry, and the mental architecture that keeps the physical architecture in place.

    I think that there are basically six answers. There are probably a lot of other answers, but here are six. Maybe one of them will strike you, and when you talk to relatives, or siblings, or colleagues about trying to enlist their help in this, it might be that one of these will be the thing that you have to approach. One of the things is that in general, the public isn’t given much information. If you ask people in the United States, “who has nuclear weapons?”, many people get the list of countries wildly wrong. Some people even think the United States doesn’t have weapons! I think the average that’s given by most people in the United States is something like 200 rather than in the thousands. The New York Times, that didn’t used to pay attention to our own weapons, but fortunately has begun to do so, recently asked the question of how many of our nuclear weapons would be needed to decimate Libya. Then they asked how many would be needed to decimate Syria, then Iraq, then Iran, then North Korea, then Russia, then China.

    They then went to how many would be leftover? 70% of the arsenal, after we massacred a quarter of the population (they use the word “decimate”, which would seem to be one in 10, but they specifically meant that it was a quarter of the population), this is how many would be leftover. Of course, this just stands for hundreds and hundreds of pieces of information that the public isn’t given—it simply isn’t talked about.

    Another big one is people in the United States think that we kind of have weapons, and we kind of have enemies, but they’re just kind of loosely connected. No, that’s completely wrong. The weapons are assigned to the cities—weapon by weapon, city by city—they are assigned. In fact until the Clinton administration, when nuclear missiles were loaded onto Ohio class submarines— I should stop and say that we have 14 Ohio class submarines, each of which carries the equivalent of 4,000 Hiroshima bombs. Each can destroy a continent single-handedly. There are only seven continents on Earth; we have 14 Ohio class submarines and we’re making 12 new ones right now. When the missiles were loaded onto nuclear submarines, it used to be that the longitude and latitude was already programmed into the nuclear weapon. During the Clinton administration, they got worried because they were afraid that a hacker would be able to launch it, and it would go to whatever city it was designated for. So they changed the longitude and latitude to open ocean targeting—someplace where they hoped nobody would be. This is an amazing fact. This change was made not because all of us demanded that they stopped putting the line of longitude and latitude of actual cities in. It was not because the Congress did, and not because the Supreme Court did, but because of the fear of hackers. I’m afraid of hackers too, but I have to say that in this case, the hackers brought about a good result. I read Cheney’s autobiography, and he said that when he was Vice President he would hear these references to these missiles being assigned, and so he asked his people, “How many warheads are going to hit Kiev?”—just taking Kiev as an example. It was a difficult question to answer, because I don’t think anybody had ever asked it before. But finally he got a report back that said under the current targeting plan, we had literally dozens of warheads targeted on this single city. That is just indicative of the situation that we’ve had.

    I want to go to the next, item on our list of possible reasons: the false justification of deterrence, where too many people in the United States accept the argument that nuclear weapons somehow keep us safer because they deter nuclear war. It would seem that the fastest way to avoid nuclear war would be to eliminate all nuclear weapons worldwide, but instead we’re given this argument that actually, the way you avoid nuclear war is to have nuclear weapons.

    If this were really true, then it would be a reason why every country should get nuclear weapons. Certainly, it’s why North Korea thinks that it has to have nuclear weapons to try and deter the United States from firing them. The illogic of this kind of the falsity of the deterrence theory just stands for the fact that people are made to believe that this would defend us. If I had more time, I would explain to you, and you could probably explain to me all the ways in which the idea that these could defend us is falsely given. But I’ll just stay for now with deterrence. If we go to the next slide, this is a statement made by General Lee Butler, who was Commander in Chief of the US Strategic Command of Nuclear Weapons. If you read his account of deterrence, he says, “The nuclear priesthood extolled its virtues and bowed to its demands,” and then if you skip to the last sentence, “it was premised on a litany of unwarranted assumptions, unprovable assertions, and logical contradictions.” That’s from somebody who had complete control of the nuclear arsenal saying, “Please, we should get down on our knees and weep for the horror of this thing we’ve created that has this deeply false justification of deterrence at the center of it.”

    I think the third thing that keeps people from doing anything is the belief that what is future is unreal. So people think that that it’s somehow, possibly sometime in the future this could happen, but there will be time to intervene, and they confuse this fact of his being future with being unreal. But here’s the reality of the situation. If it takes 10,000 steps to put a nuclear arsenal into place (obviously it takes many more than 10,000, but let me just say 10,000), it takes 10,000 steps to put a nuclear arsenal into place. 9,999 of them have been done. They are in place. They are present tense. There’s only one step left that hasn’t been done. And that’s the launch. So people have to understand that the 9,999 steps are present tense right now, and that only the last step is future. We know that that last step takes a matter of about 10 minutes, so there isn’t time, of course, to intervene later on. Interestingly, people who believe this are kind of aligning themselves, unknowingly, with our own Department of State and Department of Defense in that 1995 International Court of Justice case that I alluded to earlier, when all these countries went and asked the court to declare these things illegal. The litigants had mentioned Geneva protocols, St. Petersburg, the Hague, Genocide Convention, Ozone protection, etc., etc.

    We went systematically through every one of those, and showed why those things did not make our nuclear weapons illegal. They did not make our weapons illegal, they did not make our use of weapons illegal, they did not make our use of the weapons first illegal, did not make our threat of the use of them illegal. They had specific arguments for each of those international protocols, but the one they used over and over again was: it’s all in the future, therefore it’s unreal. Therefore, it’s just speculation, despite the fact that they’re spending billions of dollars to keep it in a present-tense state of readiness.

    I thought I would put in here some way in which we can grasp the present-tense reality of this invisible architecture that we can’t see. That is the infrastructure of our own country that has been deteriorating because all our money is being spent on weapons. The American Society of Civil Engineers has reviewed our bridges and given them the grade of C-plus (this is on their website, you can look at it). This is not an impressionistic grade. They actually enumerate the total number of bridges, which is 614,000 bridges, and they say that 188 million trips are made across structurally deficient bridges every day. This is the highest grade (the C-plus), and they give our roads a D. They say that one out of every five miles of highway pavement is dangerously deteriorated, with potholes and so forth, in a way that is increasing accidents. They give our transit a D-minus, and our levies a D. Again, these are not impressionistic grades. They give all the facts and figures and they give the amount of money that’s going to have to be spent to reclaim these things.

    Now we will go onto the fourth argument: the difficulty of imagining other people’s pain. I think that this is one of the reasons to why if our fellow citizens see something about the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, they may not get why that might matter. By the way, sometimes people say, “Well, you know, this has been an issue that’s been around for a long time. We’ve been hearing about this for decades.” When you hear that argument, here’s an analogy: imagine somebody in 1860 saying that the reason that they didn’t care about abolishing slavery was because they’d been hearing about this since 1820, and they thought it was a stale subject. We will never give people in the past a pass for not attending to something like that because they thought it was a stale subject.

    Anyway, onto this subject—the difficulty of imagining other people’s pain. Here, I think a statement by a very wonderful physician named Hugh McDermott, who was a physician of public health at Cornell medical school, is fitting. He pointed out the difference between narrative compassion and statistical compassion. Narrative compassion is something that asks us to care about and understand what’s happening to one person or two people or three people, and he says, we could be better at it, but we’re pretty good at it and we get practice at it all the time. We’re listening to stories by our siblings, we’re listening to our neighbors, and we’re reading literature that asks us to have narrative compassion. He contrasts this with statistical compassion, at which we’re horrible. We’re incapable of statistical compassion. Furthermore, we don’t get any practice. We don’t do anything to help ourselves begin to get hold of what it means to be responsible to millions of people to whom we’re responsible in political life. What does it mean to have these people of a foreign state talked about so blithely as recipients of our nuclear weapons, or what does it mean to just shrug when you hear that 44 million people will be killed on the first afternoon if one 100th of 1% of our current arsenal is used? Well, it means that people have just kind of searched their heart and soul, and they look inside and say, “Nope, nothing in there of statistical compassion.”

    I think that one place to start would be just understanding what happened in Nagasaki and Hiroshima. In this country, we actually haven’t begun to come to terms with what happened in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. With a colleague of mine, Joseph Gerson of the American Friends Service Committee, we together decided to do an exhibit at one of the libraries in the town where I live, Cambridge, Massachusetts. And this library very kindly agreed to let us dedicate a month to an exhibit, with books and pictures. We also had films and we had a lecture each week. We put up the exhibit the first night, and by the next morning when we came in, any photograph that showed injury had been taken down. Now on one level I understand this, because people coming into the public library aren’t prepared for seeing something like that. But even in cases where people are prepared, they’re not allowed to see it. For example, in 1994, the Smithsonian was going to have an exhibit on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and it caused such controversy that they had to cancel it, and the only thing they allowed to be exhibited was the Enola Gay—the airplane that delivered the bomb. I think that one reason why people from Japan—not just people who were there and suffered, but generations of people in Japan—are much more alert to this is because they are educated about the situation. For example, there was one march in New York where I and other people tried for about three months to get people from the Cambridge/Boston area to go to New York, and we got about a hundred people to go to the march in New York. That morning, 1,000 people arrived from Japan, and their trips had been paid for by 6 million people who signed the petition that they delivered.

    If you’ve been to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and have been to one of the atomic bomb museums, you almost certainly would find yourself among school children. They take in a lot of things that are hard to take in, and this next slide is just one example of what they’re asked to look at, which is the burns of people, who did survive. It might be one place to start in exercising our capacity for statistical compassion.

    The fifth reason that I think people are not attentive to this. That is the population’s false belief that once nuclear weapons are made, they can’t be unmade. This is so untrue. They’re easy to unmake. I don’t mean there aren’t problems, of course is an incredible problem of where to store all the fuel, and so forth. But in terms of disarming them, it’s the simplest thing in the world. Compare it to global warming, where we all agree things need to be done, but it’s hard to get a hold of what the solutions are. This one’s very easy. There was a study done in Scotland, by someone named John Ainslee, that looked at the amount of time it would take take to completely dismantle the UK’s nuclear arsenal. Some parts of it would take hours—that is dismantling the nuclear triggers. Other parts would take a matter of days, such as the weapons deployed at sea to come into port. Other parts would take longer, but the whole thing could be done in two to four years. Now our arsenal is much, much huger and would take longer, but still it would be a finite amount of time.

    Another piece of evidence that we have that it is possible to have a world without nuclear weapons is shown by the whole Southern hemisphere, which is blanketed by nuclear weapons free zones brought about by the Treaty of Tlatelolco, the Treaty of Pelindaba, the Treaty of Bangkok, the Treaty of Rarotonga, and so forth. This next slide shows the nuclear states in red, and the nuclear free weapons treaty signers in blue. When you see that nuclear weapons are a North-South architecture; the North has nuclear weapons and the South has the freedom from nuclear weapons.

    If we go to the last reason, Circularity, as I said before Constitutions and nuclear weapons are mutually exclusive. Right now we’ve taken away the Constitutional provisions. Congress and nuclear weapons are incompatible, so we’ve taken away Congress’s single most important job of overseeing our entry into war. Citizenry and nuclear weapons are incompatible, so we’ve infantilized our whole citizenry by telling them that they should just turn on the TV if they want to find out if we’re at war. But it also means that if we bring back Constitutions, you can only do it by getting rid of nuclear weapons. If you bring back Congress, you can only do it by getting rid of nuclear weapons because they’re mutually exclusive. And if you bring back the citizenry, you’ll get rid of nuclear weapons. And yet in the time when these things were gotten rid of, they’ve been diminished in our eyes. They’ve been sullied in our eyes. We think of the citizenry as not much use. We think of Congress as a bunch of overtalking fools—there are many books on how Congress is dead, or dying or something like that. And we think of Constitutions as just a piece of paper, because that’s the result of the Nuclear Age. That’s what it means to destroy a Constitution, and a citizenry, and Congress. And we have to take it on trust that when those things come back, the scale of their power will be visible to us once more. But I just refer this as the Circularity Problem. The fact that the very things that would save us, by being eliminated, now look kind of pathetic, and therefore we don’t see that they have tremendous power to do the work. If we see our actions, not just in terms of our own planet, but in terms of the universe—a universe it appears that has never gotten through the problem that we’re now facing—and if we see that we can use Constitutional tools in their international covenants, we can see that these legal documents actually have some of the technicolor beauty of the galaxies themselves.

    Thank you.


    For more information on the Frank K. Kelly Lecture on Humanity’s Future, including links to prior years’ lectures, click here.

  • The Truth-teller:  From the Pentagon Papers to the Doomsday Machine

    The Truth-teller: From the Pentagon Papers to the Doomsday Machine

    This interview was originally published by the Great Transition Initiative.

    The growth of the military-industrial complex poses an existential threat to humanity. Daniel Ellsberg, peace activist and Vietnam War whistleblower discusses with Tellus Senior Fellow Allen White  the continuing existential threat posed by the military-industrial complex—and what needs to be done about it.

    *********************

    You became a pivotal figure in the anti-Vietnam War movement when you released the Pentagon Papers, a large batch of classified documents that revealed a quarter century of official deception and aggression. What inspired you to take such a risky action?

    After graduating from Harvard with an economics degree and completing service in the US Marines, I worked as a military analyst at the RAND Corporation. In 1961, in that role, I went to Vietnam as part of a Department of Defense task force and saw that our prospects there were extremely dim. It was clear to me that military intervention was a losing proposition.

    Three years later, I moved from RAND to the Department of Defense. On my first day, I was assigned to a team tasked with devising a response to the alleged attack on the US naval warship USS Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin by the North Vietnamese. This completely fabricated incident became the excuse for bombing North Vietnam, which the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) and Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara had wanted to do for some months.

    That night, I saw President Lyndon Johnson and my boss, Secretary McNamara, knowingly lie to the public that North Vietnam had without provocation attacked the US ship. In fact, the US had covertly attacked North Vietnam the night before and on previous nights. Johnson and McNamara’s claim that the US did not seek to widen the war was the exact opposite of reality. In short, the Gulf of Tonkin crisis was based on lies. I was not yet moved to leave government, though I had come to view US military action as ineffective, illegitimate, and deadly, without rationale or endgame.

    By 1969, as the war progressed under Richard Nixon, I saw such evil in government deceit that I asked myself, “What can I do to shorten a war that I know from an insider’s vantage point is going to continue and expand?” When the Pentagon Papers were released in 1971, the extent of government lies shocked the public. The retaliatory crimes Nixon committed against me out of fear that I would expose his own continuing threats––including nuclear threats—ultimately helped to bring him down and shorten the Vietnam War. This outcome had seemed impossible after his landslide reelection in 1972.

    Today, similar revelations do not occasion equal shock because in the current administration in Washington, lying is routine rather than exceptional. Whether we are headed for a turning point toward bringing liars to justice will become clear when the investigations of President Donald Trump’s administration are concluded.

    Since then, you have been a vocal critic of both US military interventions and the continued embrace of nuclear weapons, an issue with which you had first-hand familiarity through your work at RAND and the Pentagon. How did your experience with nuclear policy contribute to your disillusionment with US foreign policy writ large?

    At RAND, Cold War presuppositions dominated all our work. We were certain that the US was behind in the arms race and that the Soviet Union, in pursuit of world domination, would exploit its lead by achieving a capacity to disarm the United States entirely of its nuclear retaliatory force. We were convinced that we were facing a Hitler with nuclear weapons.

    However, in 1961, I learned about a highly classified new estimate of Soviet weapons: four intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). At the time, the US had forty ICBMs, as well as thousands of intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Italy, Britain, and Turkey (compared to the Soviet Union’s total of zero). General Thomas Power, head of the Strategic Air Command (SAC), believed that the Russians had 1000 ICBMs. He was wrong by a factor of 250. This early mistaken belief signaled to me that something was very wrong with our perception of the world and, more specifically, with how we perceived the threat posed by the nation viewed as our most formidable adversary.

    At the time, I regarded the erroneous “missile gap” as a misunderstanding or cognitive error of some kind. But, in fact, it was very much a motivated error—motivated in particular by the desires of the Air Force and SAC to justify their budget requests for huge increases in the numbers of US bombers and missiles. But why did we at RAND uncritically accept the wildly inflated Air Force Intelligence estimates, rather than the contrary estimates by Army and Navy Intelligence that the Soviets had produced only “a few” ICBMs? Again, a motivated error. Through self-deception, we viewed ourselves as independent thinkers focused exclusively on national security, assuming that our role as contractors on the Air Force payroll had no influence on our analysis.

    In retrospect, it is clear that our focus and our recommendations would have been very different had we been working for the Navy. As Upton Sinclair said, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” It was very important to us not to understand that our work was above all serving to justify the exaggerated budget demands by the Air Force.

    My distrust of the wisdom of Pentagon planners was also aroused by JCS estimates of the death toll resulting from deployment of our nuclear weapons. I had heard that the JCS avoided calculating this figure because they didn’t want to know how many people they would be killing. To confront them, I drafted a question that appeared in a letter from the White House Deputy for National Security, Robert Komer, transmitted in the name of President Kennedy: “If your war plans were carried out as written and were successful, how many people would be killed in the Soviet Union and China?”

    Within a week, I held in my hand a top secret, eyes-only-for-the-president document with an estimate of 325 million fatalities in the first six months. A week later, a second communication added an estimated 100 million deaths in Eastern Europe and another 100 million in our allied nations of Western Europe, depending upon the wind patterns in the aftermath of the strike. Additional deaths in Japan, India, Afghanistan, and other countries brought the total to 600 million.

    That killings of this magnitude—100 times the toll of Jewish victims of the Holocaust—were willingly contemplated by our military transcended prevailing notions of crimes against humanity. We had no words—indeed, there are no words—for such devastation. These data confronted me with not only the question of whom I was working with and for, but also the fundamental question of how such human depravity was possible.

    Your recent book, The Doomsday Machine, describes “a very expensive system of men, machines, electronics, communications, institutions, plans, training, discipline, practices and doctrine designed to obliterate the Soviet Union under various circumstances, with most of the rest of humanity as collateral damage.” How did this system come about?

    World War II created a highly profitable aerospace sector upon which the US military relied for strategic bombing of cities, thereby setting the stage for the idea of bombers as a delivery mechanism for nuclear weapons. As orders precipitously declined by the end of the war, the industry was in dire financial straits, facing bankruptcy within a year or two. Accustomed to the guaranteed profits of the war years, they found themselves unable to compete with corporations experienced in building non-military products for the market, and demand for civilian aircraft on the part of commercial airlines was insufficient to replace the wartime military business.

    The Air Force grew concerned that the industry would be unable to survive on a scale adequate to deliver military superiority in future conflicts. In the eyes of the government—and industry lobbyists—the only solution was a large peacetime (Cold War) Air Force with wartime-level sales to keep the industry afloat.

    Thus emerged the military-industrial complex. Mobilization to confront a Hitler-like external enemy—a role filled by the Soviet Union—was viewed as indispensable to national security. Government military planning followed, essentially socialism for the whole armaments industry, including but not limited to aircraft production. With the benefit of hindsight, I now see the Cold War as, in part, a marketing campaign for the continual, massive subsidies to the aerospace industry. That’s what it became after the war, and that’s what we are seeing again today. The contemporary analog is the idea of China as an existential enemy, which, I believe, is the dream and expectation of the US Defense Department.

    The threat of nuclear conflict persists as a near-term existential threat yet remains muted in political discourse and largely absent in public consciousness. How do you explain this glaring inconsistency?

    Contemporary US media focuses on contradictions and conflicts between the two major parties. On the issue of nuclear weapons, little difference exists between them. They support the same programs and both receive donations from Boeing, General Dynamics, and Raytheon, among others. They both favor more aircraft than the Pentagon requests, itself an amazing situation given the existing level of spending. Right now, the F35, the largest military project in history, may end up costing $1.5 trillion (an incredible sum even by historical standards of lavish Pentagon spending), yet still unable to achieve the promised performance. This kind of massive pork program is used by senators and representatives to secure political advantage—a “jobs” program that often is a euphemism for a “profits” program.

    Nuclear weapons and climate change are two quintessential planetary threats requiring a coordinated global response. Do you see potential for alignment and cooperation between the anti-nuclear movement and the climate justice movement? 

    We, as a society, are conscious of the risk of the devastating impacts that could come from climate disruption. In contrast to the absence of public discourse around nuclear conflict since the end of the Cold War, climate has been a subject of intense public debate. Although the danger of the nuclear threat remains undiminished, the proposed $1.7 trillion nuclear modernization program in the US is not a matter of serious debate.

    It is difficult to compare climate and nuclear threats. The climate catastrophe toward which we are moving, while uncertain in terms of timing and outcomes, is indisputable. We have survived the nuclear danger for seventy years, although we have come close to conflict more frequently than the public realizes. I am not talking about just the Cuban Missile Crisis; in 1983, for example, we were also at the brink of a nuclear exchange, and there have been other instances. The risk of conflagration remains continuous and potentially catastrophic.

    It is true that climate change may totally disrupt civilization as we know it, but how many lives would it cost? Whatever the number, some form of civilization would probably survive. By contrast, a nuclear winter, which has a non-zero possibility of occurring, would occasion near extinction.

    That being said, both climate and nuclear threats are existential in nature, even as the degree and type of destruction differ. And both share another critical feature: the role of corporate interests and influence in sustaining the threat. As we speak, a pristine Arctic snowfield is under threat of oil drilling. Will Exxon and the other corporations be content to leave their known oil reserves in the ground, as needs to be done? I think that’s as unlikely as Boeing eschewing military contracts.

    To the question of alignment of the nuclear and climate movements, in my view, we cannot deal with the climate problem, globally or nationally, without massive government spending to speed up the production and lower the cost of renewables, and thereby accelerate the transition from a fossil-fuel economy to a renewable energy one. This will also require subsidies to the underdeveloped countries to ease their transitions. In short, we need a new super-sized Marshall Plan combined with government regulation to constrain the most damaging impulses of the fossil-based market economy embraced by Reagan, Thatcher, and other market fundamentalists. We need a national mobilization akin to that achieved during World War II. We confronted Hitler then as a civilizational threat. Climate disruption demands an equivalent response.

    And here’s where the climate-nuclear nexus comes into play again. We cannot afford the wasteful and dangerous development of new nuclear weapons that “modernize” the Doomsday Machine at the same time that we need to apply vast sums to reduce the threat of climate disruption. In the face of imminent climate catastrophe, the $700-plus-billion military budget is both untenable and irresponsible. We must convert the military economy to a climate economy. We cannot have both. To do so, we must recognize that the risks posed by the military-industrial complex far exceed those posed by Russia.

     The Great Transition envisions a fundamental shift in societal values and norms. To what extent does eliminating the nuclear threat ultimately depend on such a shift?

    Few would disagree that to activate plans for deployment of nuclear weapons leading to a nuclear winter—and thereby killing nearly everyone on Earth—is immoral to a degree that words cannot convey. It is a crime that transcends any human conception or language. But what about the threat of deployment? For many, propagating the threat of an immoral act is itself immoral. But in the nuclear era, the nuclear states have not accepted that as a norm. Our entire nuclear posture, and that of our NATO allies, is based on deterrence of a nuclear war and, if it occurs, responding with our nuclear arsenal.

    Revisiting this norm is very difficult. It is deeply embedded in the mindset of the US, Russia, and other nuclear-armed states and reinforced by the interests of powerful corporations. When Reagan and Gorbachev agreed that nuclear war cannot be won and must not be fought, they did not say that it cannot be threatened or risked. Both nations continued such preparations and do so to this day. We have been taught that nuclear weapons are a necessary evil. Without a shift in norms and values, this situation will not change.

    The Great Transition depicts a hopeful future rooted in solidarity, well-being, and ecological resilience. Given the dystopian scenarios you outline in The Doomsday Machine and your other work, where do you see the basis for hope?

    My intention in addressing the threat of nuclear annihilation is that it will at least open up the possibility of change. While such a shift in values and norms would be almost miraculous, miracles can happen, and have happened in my lifetime. In 1985, the falling of the Berlin wall a mere four years later would have seemed improbable, if not impossible, given decades of nuclear tensions and near conflicts. But then it happened. And Nelson Mandela coming to power in South Africa, without a violent revolution, was impossible. But it happened.

    So, unpredictable changes like these can happen, and their possibility inspires my commitment to continue my peace activities against long odds. My activity is based on the belief that small probabilities can be enlarged and that, however remote success may be, it is worthwhile pursuing because so much is at stake.

    My experience with the Pentagon Papers showed that an act of truth-telling, of exposing the realities about which the public had been misled, can indeed help end an unnecessary, deadly conflict. This example is a lesson applicable to both the nuclear and climate crises we face. When everything is at stake, it is worth risking one’s life or sacrificing one’s freedom in order to help bring about radical change.