Category: Nuclear Threat

  • Nuclear Dangers: Ukraine War, the Third Year

    Nuclear Dangers: Ukraine War, the Third Year

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    The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation will be holding a virtual event to discuss the third year of the Ukraine War and the nuclear dangers associated with this conflict. The event will feature Professor Grigory Yavlinsky, a Russian economist and politician who ran for the Presidency of Russia three times. Yavlinsky will be joined by Katrina vanden Heuvel, publisher of The Nation, and Richard Falk, Professor Emeritus of International Law at Princeton University. Cynthia Lazaroff, an expert on US-Russian relations, will moderate. Join us for what promises to be an illuminating discussion on the current state and future prospects of this devastating war.

    Register HERE!

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    Grigory Yavlinsky is a Russian economist and politician. He held senior positions in the governments of the USSR and Russia, and was a member of the Russian parliament for ten years. Yavlinsky is the initiator and author of “The 500 Days” program of market economic reforms, he is a leader of the opposition democratic party “Yabloko”. He ran for president of Russia: in 1996 against Boris Yeltsin, took fourth place and in 2000 against Vladimir Putin took third place.  Yavlinsky is a principled opponent of Putin. Yavlinsky is a Doctor of Economics (Central Economic and Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences), Professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    Katrina vanden Heuvel, esteemed journalist and commentator, is the editorial director and publisher of The Nation, one of the oldest progressive magazines in the United States. With her incisive analysis and bold perspectives, she has been a leading voice in American journalism for decades, challenging the status quo and advocating for progressive causes. Vanden Heuvel’s commitment to social justice and political activism has shaped The Nation into a platform for dissenting voices and marginalized perspectives. Her influence extends beyond the pages of the magazine; she is a frequent commentator on television and radio, offering insightful commentary on current events and political developments.

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    Richard Falk is a Professor Emeritus of International Law at Princeton University, and the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor’s Chairman of the Board of Trustees. In 2008, the United Nations Human Rights Council appointed him to a six-year term as a UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967. His book, This Endangered Planet: Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival (1971), was selected as one of only three Books for the Century (Political and Legal) in the centennial issue of the magazine, Foreign Affairs. His book is also part of a set considered “essential for understanding the century ahead.” Falk’s memoir, Public Intellectual: The Life of a Citizen Pilgrim, was published in 2021.

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    Cynthia Lazaroff is the founder of Women Transforming Our Nuclear Legacy and NuclearWakeUpCall.Earth. She is an award-winning documentary filmmaker and author of Dawn of a New Armageddon, a personal account of the Hawaii missile scare amidst escalating nuclear dangers, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on Hiroshima Day.  Cynthia has been engaged in Track II citizen diplomacy efforts with Russia and has founded groundbreaking U.S.-Russian exchange initiatives since the early 1980s. She is dedicated to catalyzing efforts in U.S.-Russia relations to reduce the nuclear risk and to working with people in Russia and all countries to move towards a world without nuclear weapons. In 2022, Cynthia received the Women Waging Peace Award from the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation where she currently serves on the board.

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  • FALTAN 90 SEGUNDOS PARA MEDIANOCHE

    FALTAN 90 SEGUNDOS PARA MEDIANOCHE

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    Por Ivana Nikolic Hughes | 25 de enero de 2023

    Traducción de Rubén D. Arvizu

    Ayer, el Boletín de Científicos Atómicos, una organización preeminente fundada en 1945 con el objetivo de publicar y pronunciarse sobre los peligros de la carrera armamentística nuclear, y más recientemente sobre otras amenazas existenciales, como el cambio climático, anunció su última lectura del Reloj del Juicio Final. La historia del reloj se remonta a 1947, cuando el Boletín pidió al artista Martyl Langsdorf que creara una portada para la revista; Langsdorf procedió a dibujar un reloj, con las agujas a siete minutos para la medianoche. Su elección de la imagen pretendía reflejar la urgencia del momento y el hecho de que quedaba muy poco tiempo para evitar una catástrofe mundial provocada por el hombre antes de que sucediera. En 1949, el Boletín empezó a utilizar la imagen anualmente para determinar el estado actual de los asuntos mundiales e indicar si las cosas habían mejorado o empeorado en comparación con el año anterior y con todas las lecturas anteriores del reloj. Con el tiempo, el Reloj del Juicio Final se convirtió en un símbolo de todo lo que está mal en el mundo actual y en un indicador ampliamente anticipado de los riesgos y amenazas mundiales.

    Desde 1949, el minutero del reloj se ha cambiado 24 veces, alcanzando los 17 minutos para la medianoche o el más lejano de la medianoche en 1991, al final de la Guerra Fría. Antes de 2020, el ajuste más cercano fue de dos minutos para la medianoche durante el periodo de 1953 a 1959, cuando tanto Estados Unidos como la Unión Soviética no sólo adquirieron, sino que probaron ampliamente bombas de hidrógeno. Las bombas de hidrógeno, al utilizar la fusión, el proceso que alimenta el Sol y las estrellas, en lugar de sólo la fisión, aumentaron el rendimiento energético y la destructividad de las armas nucleares en órdenes de magnitud. Estados Unidos probó -en las Islas Marshall y Kiribati- bombas que eran hasta 1.000 veces más potentes que la bomba de Hiroshima, mientras que los soviéticos ensayaron bombas de hidrógeno que alcanzaron hasta 50 megatones o el equivalente a más de 3.300 bombas de Hiroshima. La mayoría de esas pruebas de altísimo rendimiento se realizaron cerca de la isla de Severny, en el Ártico, y algunas tuvieron lugar en el centro de pruebas de Semipalatinsk, en Kazajstán.

    En enero de 2020, justo cuando la pandemia de COVID se aceleraba, el Consejo de Ciencia y Seguridad del Boletín puso el reloj a 100 segundos de la medianoche, lo más cerca que había estado nunca, para reflejar el deterioro del entorno de seguridad mundial, así como la aceleración de los impactos del calentamiento global y la falta de avances significativos para hacer frente al cambio climático. La lectura del reloj no se modificó en 2021 y 2022 y, cuando comenzó la guerra de Ucrania el pasado mes de febrero, muchos empezaron a preguntarse cómo afectaría el nuevo y mayor riesgo de intercambio nuclear o algo peor a las futuras lecturas del reloj. Así que, como miles de personas, ayer por la mañana estaba pendiente de la pantalla de mi televisor, anticipando con cierta inquietud qué hora marcarían los expertos del Boletín para este año. Está claro que las manecillas del reloj no influyen en la situación sobre los acontecimientos en Ucrania o en el mundo, pero tenía la sensación de que la lectura reflejaría la urgencia del momento, como lo ha hecho durante décadas. Enfrentarme a esta urgencia de una forma tan directa me inquietó.

    Cuando Mary Robinson, ex presidenta de Irlanda, y otros revelaron en el reloj que faltaban 90 segundos para la medianoche, respiré aliviada. Sí, 90 segundos para la medianoche está terriblemente cerca y es lo más cerca que ha estado nunca el reloj. Estoy totalmente de acuerdo con esta valoración, ya que la guerra de Ucrania ha aumentado sin duda el riesgo de uso de armas nucleares, que ya era inaceptablemente alto, al tiempo que ha causado otros problemas mundiales y ha puesto de manifiesto nuestra interdependencia global. Así que estoy de acuerdo en que hoy estamos peor que nunca. Para quienes descartan los peligros, citaría al profesor Marty Hellman, de la Universidad de Stanford, quien afirma que “quienes descartan el riesgo de guerra nuclear derivado de la guerra en Ucrania probablemente tengan razón, pero probablemente no sea suficiente cuando está en juego la supervivencia de nuestra nación”. A esto yo añadiría que la guerra nuclear no amenaza sólo a nuestra nación y a otros países por separado, sino a la civilización humana tal y como la conocemos y posiblemente a la especie humana y a otras formas de vida en el planeta. Evaluar el riesgo como el más alto de la historia me parece muy acertado.

    Mi alivio al oír y ver que faltaban 90 segundos para la medianoche se debió al hecho de que podría haber imaginado una fecha aún más cercana, por ejemplo, un minuto para la medianoche. Creo que 90 segundos es una mejor valoración, ya que refleja las numerosas oportunidades de mejorar las cosas. Al salir de una pandemia mundial, deberíamos estar mejor preparados para afrontar futuras pandemias individualmente y dentro de nuestras comunidades y sociedades. El calentamiento global está teniendo efectos tan visibles en todo el planeta (escribo esto desde Nueva York, donde aún no ha caído la primera nevada de la temporada de invierno 2022/2023) por lo que negarlo ya ni siquiera es una estrategia viable, y el optimismo ante el cambio a las energías renovables en lugares como China e India no me parece prematuro. Por último, la guerra de Ucrania ha hecho que mucha gente se dé cuenta de los peligros que siguen representando las armas nucleares, peligros que parecían haber dejado de lado tras la caída del Muro de Berlín. Esos peligros, de hecho, nunca desaparecieron y la esperanza es que, al permitir que todo el mundo los vea como lo que son, podamos finalmente alcanzar las aspiraciones de décadas de abolición nuclear.

    Esto me lleva a mi punto favorito sobre por qué hay motivos para la esperanza. El Tratado sobre la Prohibición de las Armas Nucleares (TPNW) lleva ya dos años en vigor (acabamos de celebrar su segundo aniversario el 22 de enero), cuenta con 68 ratificaciones y 92 Estados signatarios, y ambas listas de Estados siguen creciendo. Tuve la suerte de asistir y participar en la Primera Reunión de los Estados Parte el pasado mes de junio en Viena, donde pude llenarme del optimismo y la ilusión de diplomáticos, sociedad civil, académicos y jóvenes, todos trabajando juntos para hacer realidad las promesas de este tratado histórico. En la Nuclear Age Peace Foundation trabajamos arduamente en la promoción, el fortalecimiento y la aplicación del TPNW y estamos convencidos de que el tratado es nuestra mejor esperanza para legar a nuestros hijos un mundo libre de armas nucleares. Debemos hacer todo lo posible para que cumpla todos sus objetivos. Al fin y al cabo, sólo disponemos de 90 segundos para hacerlo.

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  • Nuclear deterrence is the existential threat. Not the nuclear ban treaty.

    Nuclear deterrence is the existential threat. Not the nuclear ban treaty.

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    Over the past week, our President Dr. Ivana Nikolić Hughes rallied the nuclear disarmament community to respond swiftly and forcefully to a recent article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, written by Zachary Kallenborn, who alleged that the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is an existential threat to humanity. Dr. Hughes worked with several colleagues to draft the response (Xanthe Hall of IPPNW Germany and ICAN Germany, Ira Helfand of IPPNW and Back from the Brink, Kati Juva of IPPNW and ICAN Finland, Mays Smithwich of NYCAN, and Frank Boulton of Medact). Their article was published by the Bulletin on January 22, which marked the third anniversary of the entry into force of the TPNW, and in addition to the drafters, was endorsed by over 100 individuals and organizations. The article can be found HERE or you can also read it below.

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    AS PUBLISHED IN THE BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS ON JANUARY 22, 2023

    In a deeply misguided article in this publication, Zachary Kallenborn contends that the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is a threat to humanity. To build this narrative, Kallenborn does not simply present nuclear deterrence as a stable and useful framework for avoiding conventional wars. Rather, he goes beyond the common deterrence arguments to assert that nuclear weapons restrain world wars, which allows nations to work together on addressing existential threats. Nothing could be further from the truth.

    Nuclear deterrence is a myth. Nuclear deterrence involves a nation state maintaining a believable threat of retaliation to deter an adversary’s attack. This relies on demonstrations of the readiness and the capacity to use nuclear weapons—a highly dangerous form of bluff which, in turn, makes those targeted increase their hardware and rhetoric. We are currently witnessing this kind of escalation among several nuclear weapon possessor states, which could result in nuclear war.

    Nuclear deterrence rests on decision makers always behaving rationally; even if different states and parties weigh values, threats, and possible consequences in the same way, individual leaders do not always behave rationally. During the closing weeks of his presidency, Richard Nixon’s behavior was so erratic that James Schlesinger, the Secretary of Defense, instructed the Joint Chiefs of Staff to ignore any order to use nuclear weapons unless it was countersigned by himself and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Schlesinger had no authority to do this, and it is not clear the instructions would have been carried out if Nixon had ordered the use of nuclear weapons. After his electoral defeat in 2020, Donald Trump’s behavior was so bizarre that it triggered similar concerns in General Milley, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But troubling behavior is not solely the province of US leaders. Boris Yeltsin, for example, had an alcohol problem, and the recent nuclear rhetoric from Russian leaders has been worrisome at best.

    All leaders are capable of making bad decisions, and the stress of a military crisis, during which decisions might have to be made with limited or faulty intelligence and in a very compressed time frame, increases the chance that a leader would abandon the rational position that nuclear weapons should never be used and make a mistake that would be fatal for humanity.

    The overarching assumption of nuclear deterrence is that the existence of nuclear weapons can continue indefinitely without anything ever going wrong, leading to the theory’s most concerning aspect: lack of plan B. In the words of Melissa Parke, the executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), “Nuclear deterrence may well work until the day it doesn’t.” What happens when nuclear deterrence fails? The problem is that it is impossible to create a plan for that day. The International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) has been warning since 1945 that there can be no adequate humanitarian response even to a single nuclear weapon explosion, let alone to the hundreds or thousands that could be used in today’s conflicts. Contrary to the unrealistic logic of deterrence, many medical organizations and other civil society groups, including those that we are a part of, have been arguing, often for decades, that prevention is the only viable option.

    The argument that nuclear deterrence has kept the world safe is simply wrong. Numerous close calls and near misses strongly suggest otherwise. From scholarly analyses to a simple list of such known incidents in the United States alone, the message is clear—we have been lucky, rather than smart. As UN Secretary General António Guterres stated at the 10th Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in 2022, “Luck is not a strategy.”

    Close calls and near misses haven’t led to nuclear war yet. But nuclear weapons have been the cause of human suffering for decades. In addition to the horrors of what happened in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nuclear weapons have already harmed millions of people in the process of being developed and tested. Devastatingly, governments of nuclear weapon possessors have harmed their own people, such as the people of Kazakhstan and the United States, and those whose care they’ve been entrusted with, such as the Indigenous people of Australia, the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Maohi Nui (French Polynesia). These humanitarian consequences have provided the impetus for action that is embedded in Articles 6 and 7 of the TPNW and a recently adopted resolution on nuclear justice in the UN General Assembly. Just in 2022, the global expenditure on nuclear weapons was $83 billion, an amount that could have been better spent on social programs and other needs. We are all harmed when societal needs are ignored in favor of weapons of mass destruction.

    What the world needs to address other existential threats. Kallenborn is right that the world faces other global threats. And although some of them—just like nuclear weapons—have the potential to wipe out humanity, including a large asteroid impact or an emerging infectious disease, what is thoroughly different about nuclear weapons is that we have created them, and we can therefore eliminate them.

    The majority of states in the world have access to the knowledge and very many have access to the means to build nuclear weapons, but they don’t. These states refrain from doing so because they see no value in having nuclear weapons. On the contrary, they recognize the threat that possessing nuclear weapons poses. Moreover, a verifiable process for ensuring that existing nuclear weapons have been eliminated and that new ones are not developed would have to be put in place as part of any nuclear abolition plan, including through the TPNW, with a competent international authority put in charge of this key process. Significant work on verification is ongoing through the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (IMS of CTBTO), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the TPNW’s own Scientific Advisory Group (SAG), which was formed last year.

    The elimination of all nuclear weapons and a concurrent international system of verification and monitoring would result in a far better scenario than where we find ourselves today. Even a hypothetical situation in which a nation cheats to make a few weapons following their total elimination would be far less dangerous than where we are today with a current global arsenal of approximately 12,500 warheads, which could destroy the world over and over again.

    Climate change is—like nuclear war—an existential threat of great urgency, as its effects are devastating and could make entire regions of the planet uninhabitable. Added to this, climate change is already exacerbating conflicts due to the increase in food scarcity and natural disasters that displace populations and paralyze economies. These impacts will get worse with time. Combined with nuclear weapons, this regional and global instability arguably poses the greatest threat to humanity, as the Bulletin has repeatedly made clear with time adjustments to its Doomsday Clock. At the time of the writing of this article, the clock stands at just 90 seconds to midnight.

    Nuclear winter refers to the fact that even limited regional nuclear war, such as between India and Pakistan, will trigger global climate disruption and catastrophic famine. Kallenborn alludes to this potential threat but tries to minimize the importance of nuclear winter studies by stating that there is a significant difference of opinion about this danger in the scientific community. He goes even further to warn us that such studies are motivated by “political biases and agendas.” Indeed, the one recent study from the Los Alamos Laboratory that minimizes the extent of climate change due to nuclear war may well be motivated by an agenda other than science; this study has been thoroughly rebutted. Incredibly, Kallenborn proposes that the response to the threat of global nuclear famine should be stockpiling enough food to feed billions of people for several years and cites the utterly inappropriate example of the 1948 Berlin airlift as the kind of effort needed.

    Global cooperation, not threats of annihilation, must be the basis for addressing all existential threats. We live on a beautiful planet with a host of human-made and natural challenges that require us to move away from us vs. them attitudes and instead collectively cooperate to achieve global security for all humans in our common home. To this end, we must not normalize violent conflict on battlefields and threats to destroy one another. Instead, competition between states should be reserved for athletic fields and courts, business and commerce, and pursuit of scientific and artistic achievements.

    The truth about the nuclear ban treaty. Arguably, the biggest falsehoods that Kallenborn promulgates revolve around the TPNW itself. For one, the treaty is not a quick fix that will lead to a sudden abolition of nuclear weapons in a vacuum. Rather, the treaty is an instrument that establishes a legal norm, which will lead to a process resulting in the elimination of nuclear weapons. The path that needs to be taken to reach this goal will, in itself, address the problem of great powers’ conflict and regional conflicts, as well as safe disarmament.

    It is commonly claimed that nuclear deterrence has prevented a nuclear war from occurring. But we came to the brink of nuclear war several times during the Cold War, including during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and this claim about deterrence completely ignores the role of international agreements in de-escalating tensions and preventing a nuclear conflict. The process of creating instruments of arms control and disarmament establishes structures for regaining trust and verification. In this regard, the last decade has seen an erosion of the disarmament architecture, with the exception of the TPNW. As it stands, we may soon have no more brakes on the arms race.

    As Kallenborn himself states, “the best way to reduce the risks of nuclear war is to ensure it never happens in the first place.” That precisely is the intention and the motivation of all of the 122 states that negotiated the TPNW in 2017 and an even larger number of states that have been voting in support of the treaty at the UN General Assembly every year since. The nine nuclear weapon possessors and their allies are the ones that need to prove that there is a convincing reason, or indeed any right, to hold the rest of the world hostage to their nuclear weapons. Kallenborn asserts that if nuclear weapons are eliminated, the great powers will launch World War III. In fact, the process of eliminating these weapons will create the conditions needed for a more cooperative relationship among the great powers, by removing the most dangerous issue that divides them.

    The truth about the nuclear ban is spelled out in the text of the treaty itself, but also in the recently adopted Declaration that was the result of the Second Meeting of States Parties to the TPNW, held in New York late last year. The Declaration highlights the raison d’être for the ban, as well as the way forward.

    Abolition is the only reasonable path. Nuclear weapons and current nuclear weapon policies are, in the words of the late peace and nuclear disarmament activist Daniel Ellsberg, “dizzyingly insane and immoral.” Aiming solely for reducing the harm or the possibility of harm that nuclear weapons could cause, rather than being a part of a process to abolish them, is simply not enough. Imagine if the opponents of slavery had aimed not to abolish slavery, but to make life a bit better for the enslaved people? Ultimately, the question of nuclear abolition is not just a moral one, but an existential one. If we don’t abolish nuclear weapons, they will abolish us. John F. Kennedy stated this at the United Nations more than 60 years ago. Let’s heed his words sooner rather than later and, critically, before it is too late.

    Acknowledgements 

    The following individuals contributed significantly to the writing of this article:

    Kati Juva, Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) Finland, IPPNW

    Frank Boulton, Medact (IPPNW UK)

    The following individuals endorse the views expressed in this article:

    Michael Orgel, Medact Scotland & Medact UK Nuclear Weapons Group, Edinburgh

    Timmon Wallis, NuclearBan.US

    Hasse Schneidermann, Forbyd Atomvåben – ICAN in Denmark

    Christian Ciobanu, NAPF and Reverse the Trend (RTT)

    Alice Slater, World BEYOND War

    Becker Raymond, Cercle Vivi Hommel, Luxembourg

    Michele Di Paolantonio, AIMPGN Italian Medical Association for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW Italy)

    Lisa Clark, Italian Peace and Disarmament Network

    Kathleen Sullivan, Hiroshima Stories and NYCAN

    Emily Welty, Pace University

    Anastasia Shakhidzhanova, NAPF and Columbia University

    Matthew Breay Bolton, Pace University

    Spencer Graves, EffectiveDefense.org and PeaceWorks Kansas City

    Gari Donn, UN House Scotland

    Bill Kidd MSP, Scottish Parliament

    Carol Gilbert, Grand Rapids Dominican Sister

    Barbara Rose Johnston, Center for Political Ecology

    Gerry Condon, Veterans For Peace, Golden Rule

    John LaForge, Nukewatch

    John Reuwer, PSR, World BEYOND War

    Alan Robock, Rutgers University

    Patrick Hiller, War Prevention Initiative

    Donald A. Smith, PhD

    David Hartsough, World Beyond War

    Melissa Parke, ICAN

    Steve Leeper, Peace Culture Village, Hiroshima

    Carol Wolman, Voices for a Nuclear Free Future

    David Swanson, World BEYOND War

    Nicolas J. S. Davies, CODEPINK

    Bobby Vaughn Jr, Investigative Journalist

    Barbara Newsom, United Religions Initiative, Voices for a World Free of Nuclear Weapons

    Jill Haberman, Peace & Justice Coordinator for Sisters of St. Francis of Assis, WI

    Rosemary Field, Medact, UK

    Jay Coghlan, Nuclear Watch New Mexico

    Glenn Carroll, Nuclear Watch South

    Ruth Mitchell, IPPNW

    Susan Mirsky, MA Peace Action

    Paul Andrews, Voices for a World Free of Nuclear Weapons

    Tom Sauer, Universiteit Antwerpen, Belgium

    Oda Andersen Nyborg, The Norwegian Peace Council

    Diane Fine, MA 350

    Lisa Fredrikson, Veterans For Peace

    Veterans for Peace

    Cynthia Lazaroff, Women Transforming Our Nuclear Legacy and NuclearWakeUpCall.Earth

    Frank Bognar, NAPF

    Kim Joy Bergier, Michigan Stop the Nuclear Bombs Campaign

    Andrew S. Kanter, PSR and Columbia University

    Linda Pentz Gunter, Beyond Nuclear

    John Raby, Peace Action Maine

    Michael Ramos, Voices for a World Free of Nuclear Weapons

    Lynne Hall, Massachusetts Peace Action

    Joni Arends, Concerned Citizens for Nuclear Safety, New Mexico

    Ludo De Brabander, Vrede vzw (Belgian peace movement)

    Carol E Green, Peace with Justice Committee, the Holston Conference of the United Methodist Church

    Haruko Moritaki, Hiroshima Allians for Nuclear Weapons Abollition

    WE Rotary Club of International Peace, TRUST Climate Action Strategists

    Lynn Jamieson, Scottish Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament

    Martin Fleck, PSR

    Philip Webber, Scientists for Global Responsibility (UK)

    Tom Vilmer Paamand, Aldrig Mere Krig – WRI Denmark

    Hsin Yen Phoebe Mok, beHuman

    Janet Fenton, Secure Scotland

    Cletus Stein, Alliance for Nuclear Accountability

    Sunny Robinson, public health nurse, retired.

    Jack Cohen-Joppa, the Nuclear Resister

    Felice Cohen-Joppa, the Nuclear Resister

    Cherrill Spencer, DISARM/End Wars Committee of the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom, US Section

    Gar Smith, Environmentalists Against War

    Kathleen Hamill, Mass Peace Action and NuclearBan.US

    Helen Caldicott, PSR

    Tomohiko Aishima, Soka Gakkai International (SGI)

    Anna Ikeda, SGI and Voices for a World Free of Nuclear Weapons

    John Hallam, People for Nuclear Disarmament

    Tove Jensen, Demos, The Initiative for Peace

    Angel Ballesteros, Justice and Peace Spain and University of Burgos

    Claus Montonen, Technology for Life Finland, International Network of Engineers and Scientists for Global Responsibility

    Hunter Peace Group NSW Australia

    Martha Inés Romero, Pax Christi International

    Fco. Javier Alonso, Comisión General Justicia y Paz de España

    Maribel Hernández, Alianza por el Desarme Nuclear

    Juliane Hauschulz, ICAN Germany and IPPNW Germany

    Anthony Donovan, Veterans For Peace, Catholic Worker, War Resister League, Peace Action NY, Pax Christi NY, ICANW

    Per Kristensen

    Marian Losse, ICAN Deutschland

    Mary T. Yelenick, Pax Christi International

    Ranjith Jayasekera, Sri-Lanka Doctors for Peace and Development

    Kenneth Chiu, NAPF

    Elizabeth Waterston, Medact (IPPNW UK)

    Ghassan Shahrour

    Richard Krushnic, Massachusetts Peace Action, Mass Public Banking, Cambridge Residents Alliance, Boston Workers Circle

    Seth Shelden, ICAN

    Robert Kinsey, The Colorado Coalition for Prevention of Nuclear War

    Linda Cataldo Modica, Catholic Committee of Appalachia TN Chapter

    Linda Chapman, NYCAN & Youth Arts New York

    [/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

  • “Oppenheimer’s Legacy” at Columbia University

    “Oppenheimer’s Legacy” at Columbia University

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    On October 25, 2023, Dr. Ivana Hughes, NAPF President and Senior Lecturer at Columbia University, joined other Columbia Professors Carol Gluck (History), Heather Radke (School of the Arts and Radiolab), and Michael Gerrard (Law School), to discuss questions of ethics in science, history, storytelling, and energy policy through the lens of the film Oppenheimer.

    The Moral Compass

    Ivana introduced the profound ethical and moral challenges that surround nuclear weapons, highlighting I.I. Rabi’s pivotal role in Oppenheimer (and in reality!) in opposing them from even before their development. Rabi, a figure sometimes overshadowed in the annals of history, emerged as a steadfast critic of nuclear weapons from the earliest days of the Manhattan Project. During their formative years, Rabi and J. Robert Oppenheimer, as young students students in Europe, developed a deep friendship that would last to the end of Robert’s life. Rabi’s powerful declaration, “I don’t want three hundred years of physics to culminate in the making of a bomb,” encapsulates the moral complexity inherent in nuclear technology. Ivana spoke of three findings that would come long after Rabi called hydrogen bombs “weapons of genocide,” namely disproportionate effects of radiation on women and girls (based on data on survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki), long-term radiological contamination in former nuclear testing stites (Marshall Island), and nuclear winter. 

    The Nuclear Winter and the Global Impact

    The ominous concept of a nuclear winter, as examined by many experts, casts a shadow over any discussion of nuclear warfare. Scientists have long warned of the catastrophic global consequences of a nuclear conflict, including large fires and the abundant release of soot, which would engulf the atmosphere, causing dramatic drops in global temperatures and drastic reductions in food availability worldwide. This stark potential underscores the immediate need to address the nuclear threat through international agreements such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

    Interpreting the Nuclear Narrative: Contrasting Perspectives on Hiroshima and Nagasaki

    Carol Gluck, Professor of History, explained the intricate narratives surrounding the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, shedding light on the disparities in interpretation. In the Japanese narrative, these bombings are not depicted as the conclusive end of the war but as the dawn of an era of peace. In stark contrast, the American narrative often portrays the atomic bombs as causing the end of the war and saving American lives. This disparity underscores the complexity of public attitudes toward nuclear weapons, providing insight into the many historical interpretations of a pivotal event.

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    Ivana Hughes (NAPF and Columbia) explores the relationship between the development of nuclear weapons and ethics in Oppenheimer.

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    Carol Gluck (Columbia) contrasts the American and Japanese narratives of the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

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    Navigating Complex Narratives: Challenges in Storytelling

    Heather E. Radke, Adjunct Professor in the School of the Arts and Editor at Radiolab, drew attention to the challenges of portraying stories with unsettling endings. She underscored that depicting images of atrocities may not necessarily induce change or render audiences more receptive to complex issues. Radke highlighted the intricate balance between truth and entertainment when conveying stories of challenging subjects. The task of retaining the audience’s attention while respecting the perspectives of activists and those most affected by issues, such as nuclear weapons, is a challenging one.

    Challenges to Nuclear Energy

    Michael Gerrard, Professor of Environmental and Energy Law, explored the ethical and environmental aspects of nuclear energy and its role in addressing another existential threat, that of climate change. He drew attention to the world’s existing nuclear plants, many of which are nearing retirement, and the potential adoption of new nuclear technologies. One significant concern raised by Gerrard is the management of nuclear waste, a critical challenge in the ongoing use of nuclear energy. The establishment of suitable storage facilities for this waste poses notable political hurdles. Furthermore, Gerrard cautioned about the security risks associated with outdoor storage of nuclear waste, as it could become a vulnerable target for potential security breaches and environmental damages. His extensive legal experience, including involvement in nuclear waste cases and work with the Republic of the Marshall Islands, underscores the ongoing concerns associated with nuclear energy and waste management.

    The Role of the Individual and Public Perception

    One of the key questions surrounding nuclear technology is the role of the individual in shaping the narrative. The public’s relationship with nuclear issues has often been characterized by a sense of powerlessness. Nuclear technology has been shrouded in secrecy and government control, making it difficult for individuals to challenge the prevailing narratives. How do we empower the public to understand the magnitude of the nuclear challenge and care about it?

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    Panel at Columbia Unviersity, organized and moderated by Anelise Chen (Columbia School of Arts) and Lynnette Widder (Columbia School of Professional Studies)

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    Heather Radke (Columbia and Radiolab) addresses the relationship between truth and entertainment in storytelling.

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    Michael Gerrard (Columbia) addresses the question of nuclear energy technology.

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    Upcoming Events

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  • Article on Nuclear Sharing in Truthout

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    Read our President’s latest op-ed on why nuclear sharing – both Russia’s and the U.S.’s – has to end. The article was published in Truthout and can be found HERE.

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  • Talk World Radio on the imperative of nuclear abolition

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    Dr. Ivana Nikolić Hughes recently had the opportunity to speak with David Swanson, the executive director of World Beyond War and campaign coordinator for RootsAction.org. The discussion was part of David’s show on Talk World Radio. Watch this important conversation on nuclear weapons, what they did and can do, and why they have to go.

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  • Remembering Castle Bravo 69 Years Later

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    Castle Bravo Blast (Public Domain)

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    Castle Bravo is the largest nuclear weapon test the United States (US) ever conducted. It was a seminal event in the nuclear testing history of the Marshall Islands. It is also part of a shameful legacy for those of us who consider ourselves American. Today, the Marshallese people in the Marshall Islands and in diaspora, remember and commemorate Castle Bravo, an event that must never be forgotten.

    The Bravo explosion took place on March 1, 1954 in the northern part of Bikini Atoll, one of 29 coral atolls in the Marshall Islands. The explosion yielded the energy equivalent of 15 Megatons (or about 33 billion pounds) of TNT, or 1000 Hiroshima bombs. The blast evaporated an island, forming a deep crater in the Bikini lagoon. The resulting mushroom cloud reached a height of 25 miles into the atmosphere and spread radioactive fallout throughout the atoll, across other Marshallese atolls, and around the world. For decades, the US government has claimed that Bravo was an accident, both because it was more powerful than expected and because the winds had changed, leading to significant radiation fallout on populated atolls, like Rongelap. Recently declassified documents suggest that the claims of an accident are not truthful (see for example here, courtesy of late Bill Graham via Giff Johnson).

    Two communities have arguably been the most affected by Bravo: the Bikinians, who had moved out of their atoll in February of 1946 to make room for the US nuclear testing program, and the Rongelapese, who were living on the lush Rongelap Island, a mere 100 miles away, on that fateful day when radioactive fallout blanketed their islands and lagoon like snow. One could make the case that it is thanks to Bravo that Bikinians cannot return to live in their home islands more than 77 years after the US nuclear testing began. For the people of Rongelap, who similarly remain refugees in their own country, the loss of their land and culture is part of their history of suffering, which includes physical and mental health impacts stemming from the exposure to radiation in the aftermath of the Bravo test. By nightfall, many in the community, children in particular, were gravely ill with radiation poisoning. They were not evacuated until three days later and remain in exile nearly 69 years after Bravo.

    It’s not that people haven’t tried to return home. After the testing program ended in 1958, the people of Bikini slowly attempted to reoccupy their lands in the late 1960s, only to leave again in 1978, when it became clear that staying meant continued exposure to large and unacceptable doses of radiation. Measurements made from 2015-2018 by a Columbia University research team that I was a part of suggest that Bikini is still not ready to permanently host a multigenerational community, absent an extensive cleanup effort. Note that I stress the word “permanent;” a brief visit to Bikini is fine, but living there 24/7, 365 days a year for many years, is not. Moreover, given that radiation impacts people differently by age and possibly even sex, resettlement of a community that includes young children and pregnant women can only follow a careful decontamination program. Hence the emphasis on the word multigenerational.

    The situation is a bit more complicated in Rongelap Atoll, where our team found that radiological contamination on Rongelap Island, where people previously lived, has been largely, if not entirely, contained. But we also found disturbing evidence of high levels of external gamma radiation and high levels of plutonium in the soil in Naen, an island in the north of the Rongelap Atoll. Although the Rongelapese did not traditionally use Naen for their living quarters, they did use it – and other islands throughout the atoll – as a pantry island, where they collected food. The conditions in Naen and in other islands of the atoll need to be far better understood and potentially addressed, before a permanent and multigenerational community could return to Rongelap.

    The focus here on Bikini and Rongelap is not to say that other atolls were not affected, just that these may have been the most affected. At the time of Bravo, people were also living in Alluk, Likiep, Utirik, and throughout the Marshall Islands. A comprehensive survey of current radiological conditions is desperately needed for the entire country, with an emphasis on atolls closest to the former testing sites. In 2017, the Columbia team was able to visit Utirik and we found little to no evidence of elevated levels of radiation. This is encouraging, although not definitive, as our measurements were limited in scope and number.

    The Marshall Islands suffered 67 nuclear tests, which corresponded to 55% of the total energy yield of all US nuclear weapon tests. Bravo was the largest and the most devastating due to the fallout spread, but there were many other large (hydrogen bomb) tests. Several actually took place in the same part of the Bikini lagoon as Bravo, leading to a complex crater that today has a depth of ~50 m, and according to two Columbia studies, hosts a variety of radioactive contaminants (see here and here). The ocean is filling in this crater at a rate of about one foot per year (or one meter every three years), as if it knows that it must treat its own scars, with people seemingly not ready to heal them.

    The legacy of Bravo must not be forgotten. Indeed, it must be recognized, understood, and properly addressed.

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  • It is 90 seconds till midnight

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    Yesterday, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, a pre-eminent organization founded in 1945 with the goal to publish and pronounce upon the dangers of the nuclear arms race, and more recently other existential threats, such as climate change, announced their latest Doomsday Clock reading. The clock’s history dates back to 1947, when the Bulletin asked the artist Martyl Langsdorf to create a cover for the magazine; Langsdorf proceeded to draw a picture of a clock, with its hands at seven minutes till midnight. Her choice of image was meant to reflect the urgency of the moment and the fact that very little time was left to prevent a human-made global catastrophe before it happened. By 1949, the Bulletin started using the image yearly to ascertain the current state of global affairs and to indicate whether things have indeed gotten better or worse compared to the previous year and compared to all of the prior clock readings. Along the way, the Doomsday Clock became a symbol of all that is wrong in today’s world and a widely anticipated gauge of global risks and threats.

    Since 1949, the minute hand of the clock has been changed 24 times, reaching 17 minutes to midnight or the farthest from midnight in 1991, at the end of the Cold War. Prior to 2020, the closest setting was two minutes till midnight during the time period of 1953 to 1959, when both the United States and the Soviet Union not only acquired but widely tested hydrogen bombs. Hydrogen bombs, by using fusion, the process that powers the Sun and the stars, instead of just fission, increased the energy yield and destructiveness of nuclear weapons by orders of magnitude. The United States tested – in the Marshall Islands and Kiribati – bombs that were up to 1000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, while the Soviets tested hydrogen bombs that reached up to 50 Mtons or the equivalent of more than 3300 Hiroshima bombs. Most of those ultra high yield tests were conducted near Severny Island in the Arctic, with some taking place at the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan.

    In January 2020, just as the COVID pandemic was gaining speed, the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board set the clock at 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it had ever been, to reflect the deteriorating global security environment, as well as the accelerating impacts of global warming and the lack of meaningful progress on addressing climate change. The clock reading was unchanged in 2021 and 2022 and when the Ukraine War started last February, many began to wonder how the new and increased risk of nuclear exchange or worse would affect future clock readings. So like thousands of others, I was glued to my screen yesterday morning, anticipating with some trepidation what time the Bulletin experts would set for this year. The clock hands – clearly – do not impact the situation on the ground in Ukraine or globally, but I did have the sense that the reading would reflect the urgency of the moment, as it has for decades. Confronting this urgency in such a direct way did make me anxious.

    When Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland, and others unveiled the clock to reveal 90 seconds till midnight, I breathed a sigh of relief. Yes, 90 seconds to midnight is awfully close and the closest the clock has ever been. I fully agree with this assessment, as the Ukraine War has undoubtedly increased the risk of use of nuclear weapons, which was already unacceptably high, while also causing other global problems and exposing our global interdependency. So I agree that we are worse off today than we have ever been. For those who discount the dangers, I would quote Prof. Marty Hellman from Stanford University, who says that “those who discount the risk of nuclear war stemming from the war in Ukraine are probably right, but probably is not good enough when our nation’s survival is at stake.” To this, I would add that nuclear war does not threaten just our nation and other individual countries, but human civilization as we know it and possibly the human species and other life on the planet. Assessing the risk as the highest it has ever been, seems right on the mark to me.

    My relief at hearing and seeing 90 seconds till midnight was due to the fact that I could have imagined an even closer reading of say, one minute till midnight. I believe that 90 seconds is a better assessment as it reflects the numerous opportunities to make things better. Coming out of a worldwide pandemic, we should be better prepared to confront future pandemics individually and within our communities and societies. Global warming is having such visible impacts around the planet (I write this from New York City where we have yet to have our first snowfall of the 2022/2023 winter season) that denial is no longer even a viable strategy and optimism about the shift to renewables in places like China and India does not strike me as premature. Finally, the Ukraine War has at last woken many people up to the continued dangers of nuclear weapons, dangers they seemed to have put aside after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Those dangers in fact never went away and the hope is that by allowing the whole world to see them for what they are, we can finally reach the decades-long aspirations of nuclear abolition.

    This brings me to my favorite point about why there is reason for hope. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) has now been in force for two years (we just celebrated its second anniversary on January 22), has 68 ratifications and 92 signatory states, and both lists of states continue to grow. I was fortunate to attend and participate in the First Meeting of States Parties last June in Vienna where I could soak in the optimism and the excitement of diplomats, civil society, academics, and youth, all working together to bring the promises of this historic treaty to reality. We at the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation are hard at work on promoting, strengthening, and implementing the TPNW and are convinced that the treaty is our best hope for leaving a world free of nuclear weapons to our children. We must do everything we can to see it accomplish all of its objectives. After all, we only have 90 seconds to do so.

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  • What I didn’t get to say at the UN

    Over the last weekend of September, in between a cross-country race for my high schooler, a soccer game for my 6th grader, and saying good bye to my daughter as she headed to Europe to study medicine, I was working on a statement to deliver during the United Nations General Assembly on September 26. My statement would take place at a commemorative meeting for the International Day for Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons and I only had three minutes to deliver it. Three minutes is not a lot of time; about three hundred words to be exact. And I had so much to say.

    I wanted to tell the delegates about my amazing kids and husband and dog and why I feel that the biggest gift I can leave to my children would be a world free of nuclear weapons. I wanted to tell the delegates that my main motivation in pursuing the hard work of nuclear disarmament is love. Love for my family, for our beautiful planet, for all life on Earth, and for humanity itself. I wanted to tell them that nuclear weapons, in the words of David Krieger, threaten everything we love and everything we’ve ever known. They threaten humanity itself.

    We live in a challenging time. I wanted to tell the delegates about tears in my eyes while in the Times Square subway station just days earlier. I was on my way to the General Assembly while passing through the station. If you’ve ever been there, you’ll know that it’s not exactly the kind of location that is inspiring. But thinking about the weight of the world and seeing people singing, holding hands, rushing to wherever they were going, or selling fruit cups, brought tears to my eyes. If a nuclear weapon were to be used in New York City, that subway station would surely be vaporized. And so much more.

    Last year, an international treaty that bans nuclear weapons – the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) – entered into force. A response of nuclear weapon states to this treaty has been to point out that they would love to get rid of nuclear weapons if it weren’t for the “bad” countries that possess them or aspire to possess them. But there is no such thing as bad or good nuclear weapons. They are all bad. A single nuclear weapon used today would be much more powerful than the bombs the United States used in attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. More likely, multiple weapons would be delivered simultaneously on an intercontinental ballistic missile. And unlike in 1945, there would most certainly be a response consisting of more nuclear strikes.

    But I didn’t get to say all this. Instead, I focused on the lessons from the past, the current terrifying arsenals and modernization plans, and the future on a planet that currently supports a human civilization, however imperfect it may be, and that may not be able to do so in the future. Some necessary context: the use of nuclear weapons in attacks on Japan was not the only time that humanity suffered due to nuclear weapons. The suffering includes a long legacy of nuclear weapons testing on the atolls and islands of the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, French Polynesia, and Alaska, to the deserts of the American Southwest, Australia, Kazakhstan, and China, and in other locations around the world. This legacy consists of decades of physical health effects, such as increased rates of cancer and negative maternal health impacts, as well as mental and cultural demise.

    Some more context: today, nine countries possess around 13,000 weapons, about 1800 of which are on what is called a hair-trigger alert. This means that many hundreds of weapons can be launched within minutes in crisis situations. This also means that accidental use or use due to misunderstanding or miscalculation is much more likely. Finally, the use of even small fractions of the current arsenals would result in millions of direct deaths and even billions due to starvation within the first two years, depending on the exact circumstances of the weapons used and their total number. The latter is a consequence of something scientists called nuclear winter more than four decades ago. The results of a recent study of nuclear winter are simply terrifying.

    At the UN, I didn’t get to say everything I wanted to. But I had love in my heart and a clear message. Everything we know about nuclear weapons from thinking about the past, the present, and the future says that the only road ahead is that toward a world free of nuclear weapons.

    You can watch my statement HERE.

    – Ivana

  • The Hanford Plaintiffs

    The Hanford Plaintiffs

    Trisha T. Pritikin’s powerful book, The Hanford Plaintiffs, tells a quintessential American story. A rural community in Washington state is among the first to experience the terrifying consequences of the nuclear age. Beginning in the 1940s, locals began to take notice of strange and unexplainable happenings. Without warning, people began to suffer more frequent nose bleeds, and headaches, muscular weakness and sore throats, thyroid conditions, leukemia, and numerous other sicknesses. New moms suffered miscarriages, and neonatal deaths. More people were dying from heart attacks, and various forms of cancer. In their farmlands, they observed lambs born weakened with terrible deformities, sheep and cattle dying.

    Why was all this happening? What they didn’t know was that a nearby facility producing plutonium for the atomic bomb, was releasing radioactive wastes into the wind, and the water of the Columbia River.

    In a futile effort over many decades, they tried to tell their stories, but were denied justice, by court indifference, interminable bureaucratic delay, and lies by the US government. Now, decades later, through the unrelenting efforts of Pritikin and her colleagues, twenty-four of the Hanford Plaintiffs at last tell their stories, told in their own words, that serve as a stark warning to our world: this can happen to you.


    Frank C. Bognar, D.P.A. is Chair of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.