Category: Nuclear Threat

  • UNGA79 Side Event: Silent Fallout Screening and Panel Discussion

    UNGA79 Side Event: Silent Fallout Screening and Panel Discussion

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    On October 30, 2024, the Human Rights Now hosted a film screening and panel discussion of Silent Fallout. The event took place as a side event to the First Committee of the United Nations 79th General Assembly in New York. The event was held in collaboration with the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, PeaceBoat USA, Arms Control Association (ACA), International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), and our youth initiative, Reverse the Trend (RTT).

    On Silent Fallout:

    Narrated by Alec Baldwin, this documentary by the Japanese director Hideaki Ito, addresses the world’s biggest environmental problem. The U.S. government dropped 101 atomic bombs on the American continent as part of its nuclear testing program, resulting in radioactive contamination of the continent. In the 1960s, milk was contaminated with radiation and children were exposed to this radiation. Women around the country stood up through an effort entitled Mothers for Peace, collecting baby teeth and demonstrating the presence of strontium-90 in their children. Moved by these findings and efforts, President Kennedy declared a halt to atmospheric nuclear testing and pursued the Partial Test Ban Treaty, which ended US above-ground testing.

    Director’s Statement

    “The film is intended to convey that the entire American continent has been contaminated by radiation from 101 atmospheric nuclear tests conducted in the United States. Then, it is requested to reconsider and discuss nuclear weapons.”

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    Left to Right: Christian Ciobanu, Shizuka Kuramitsu, Shiho Burke, Larissa Truchan

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    Audience view

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    Panel Discussion

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    Larissa Truchan of Human Rights Now

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    Panel Discussion

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animation_delay=”0″ animation_offset=”” last=”true” border_position=”all” first=”false”][fusion_imageframe image_id=”28240|full” aspect_ratio=”” custom_aspect_ratio=”100″ aspect_ratio_position=”” skip_lazy_load=”” lightbox=”no” gallery_id=”” lightbox_image=”” lightbox_image_id=”” alt=”” link=”” linktarget=”_self” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” max_width=”” sticky_max_width=”” align_medium=”none” align_small=”none” align=”none” mask=”” custom_mask=”” mask_size=”” mask_custom_size=”” mask_position=”” mask_custom_position=”” mask_repeat=”” style_type=”” blur=”” stylecolor=”” hue=”” saturation=”” lightness=”” alpha=”” hover_type=”none” magnify_full_img=”” magnify_duration=”120″ scroll_height=”100″ scroll_speed=”1″ margin_top_medium=”” margin_right_medium=”” margin_bottom_medium=”” margin_left_medium=”” margin_top_small=”” margin_right_small=”” margin_bottom_small=”” margin_left_small=”” margin_top=”” margin_right=”” margin_bottom=”” margin_left=”” bordersize=”” bordercolor=”” borderradius=”” z_index=”” caption_style=”off” caption_align_medium=”none” caption_align_small=”none” caption_align=”none” caption_title=”” caption_text=”” caption_title_tag=”2″ fusion_font_family_caption_title_font=”” fusion_font_variant_caption_title_font=”” caption_title_size=”” caption_title_line_height=”” caption_title_letter_spacing=”” caption_title_transform=”” caption_title_color=”” caption_background_color=”” fusion_font_family_caption_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_caption_text_font=”” caption_text_size=”” caption_text_line_height=”” caption_text_letter_spacing=”” caption_text_transform=”” caption_text_color=”” caption_border_color=”” caption_overlay_color=”” caption_margin_top=”” caption_margin_right=”” caption_margin_bottom=”” caption_margin_left=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_color=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_delay=”0″ animation_offset=”” filter_hue=”0″ 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    Juliane Hausschulz of IPPNW

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  • Side Event Report: Advancing Nuclear Justice

    Side Event Report: Advancing Nuclear Justice

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    On October 29, 2024, the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF), its youth initiative Reverse The Trend, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), together with the Missions of Kiribati and Kazakhstan, hosted a timely discussion on advancing nuclear justice through victim assistance and environmental remediation. Veronique Christory, Senior Arms Adviser for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) Delegation to the UN; Ambassador Teburoro Tito of Kiribati; Azamat Kairolda, Counsellor of Kazakhstan; Christian N. Ciobanu, Policy and Advocacy Director of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and TPNW Advisor of Kiribati; Raphael Pangalangan, Human Rights Officer at the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Dr. Ivana Hughes, President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and a member of Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons’ Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) served as the panelists. Lina Hjärtström of ICAN moderated the discussion.

    Veronique Christory of the ICRC underscored that there is no adequate humanitarian response to a nuclear weapon detonation. She emphatically stressed that it is extremely doubtful that nuclear weapons can be used in accordance with international humanitarian law. She further emphasised the need to address the increased rhetoric of the threat of use of nuclear weapons.

    Ambassador Teburoro Tito described how the citizens of Kiribati suffered from 33 nuclear tests by two nuclear-armed states. As a result, his country is firmly committed to nuclear justice and is collaborating closely with Kazakhstan on both the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons’ humanitarian provisions contained in Article 6 and 7 and the historic nuclear justice UN General Assembly resolution entitled Addressing the Legacy of Nuclear Weapons: Providing Victim Assistance and Environmental Remediation.

    Similar to Ambassador Tito’s comments, Azamat Kairolda of Kazakhstan stressed the importance of environmental remediation and victim assistance. Kairolda specifically mentioned the urgency of investment by the international community to help affected communities, further elaborating on the nuclear justice resolution tabled by Kazakhstan and Kiribati. In addition, Kairolda stated that Kazakhstan will chair the Third Meeting of States Parties to the TPNW, and Kazakhstan’s priority will be establishing an international trust fund. He also urged states that have not yet done so to join the TPNW. Kairolda concluded his remarks by adding that nuclear justice is not the responsibility of any single state, but rather, the collective duty of the international community.

    Christian Ciobanu of NAPF and the TPNW Advisor to Kiribati specified that the new updated version of the nuclear justice resolution calls for an international meeting on victim assistance and environmental remediation. Regarding the implementation of the TPNW’s humanitarian provisions, Ciobanu mentioned the states parties are developing a terms of reference document for the international trust fund. This document addresses the involvement of civil society and affected communities in the decision-making processes, as well as the composition of the Board of Trustees. He also stated that Kiribati and Kazakhstan are looking forward to collaborating with the international community on addressing nuclear justice.

    Following Ciobanu’s remarks, Raphael Pangalangan of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) discussed the significance of the OHCHR’s study on the legacy of nuclear weapons in the Marshall Islands. He explained that the study is centered on examining transitional justice, emphasing the role of fact finding and truth seeking to achieve justice for the Marshallese people. Pangalangan further explained that during the course of his investigations, he also realised that the Marshallese people are not just victims, but champions of nuclear justice as evident in their presentations in Geneva at a high-level event on the study. This is an example of how the human rights framework can assist nuclear justice. Pangalangan concluded by stating that the study will be renewed.

    Dr. Ivana Hughes of NAPF and SAG emphasized the role of scientists in addressing nuclear justice. She specified that scientific studies relating to the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons motivated the negotiations of the TPNW and for states parties of the Treaty to call for the establishment of the SAG. Dr. Hughes explained that the SAG has been examining the verification provisions relating to Article 4 and the implementation of Articles 6 and 7 of the TPNW. Specifically, she stated that one place where action can be delivered now is through the implementation of Articles 6 and 7. She concluded that “nuclear justice is nuclear abolition. These two things are intertwined. It cannot be that people have suffered for decades, and we ignore those devastating experiences and continue to have nuclear weapons.”

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    Véronique Christory of ICRC

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    Christian Ciobanu of NAPF and TPNW Advisor of Kiribati

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    Azamat Kairolda of Kazakhstan (left) and Ambassador Teburoro Tito of Kiribati (right)

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    Dr. Ivana Hughes of NAPF

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    Mitchie Takeuchi, producer of The Vow from Hiroshima

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    Véronique Christory (speaking) and Azamat Kairolda of Kazakhstan (right)

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    Raphael Pangalangan of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and Lina Hjärtström of ICAN

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    Audience

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  • Nihon Hidankyo’s Bittersweet Receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize

    Nihon Hidankyo’s Bittersweet Receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize

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    Our President Dr. Ivana Nikolić Hughes and Peter Kuznick have published an article in The Nation, following the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize. Read their article to learn more about Nihon Hidankyo and nuclear disarmament efforts, for which Nihon Hidankyo has now won the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize.

    The article highlights the awarding of the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize to Nihon Hidankyo, emphasizing the urgent need for nuclear disarmament amid de-escalating global conflicts and honoring the Hibakusha’s decades-long advocacy for peace. You can find the original article HERE.


    Nihon Hidankyo’s Bittersweet Receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize

    The prize is a reminder that we must abolish and eliminate nuclear weapons.

    October 18, 2024 | Ivana Nikolić Hughes and Peter Kuznick
    *Originally published in the The Nation

    Friday’s announcement of the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize to Nihon Hidankyo, the Japan Confederation of A- and H-Bomb Sufferers Organizations, sent waves of elation and excitement through the peace and disarmament movements worldwide. The general public seems to have gotten in on the action, too, given all the media coverage and the many messages we’ve received about the prize. To us, it was also personally gratifying. We have been nominating Hidankyo for the Nobel for years.

    The superb recipient choice comes at a moment of global peril. The Ukraine war is heading for its third anniversary, with no signs of diplomatic efforts intended to bring the conflict to a close. If anything, last week’s departure of Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov from Washington, without even a named replacement, confirms that relations between the United States and Russia are at their lowest points in decades. As of late, there has been no high-level contact between the two nuclear behemoths, either one of which can single-handedly end human civilization as we know it. Even during the Cold War, the Soviet Union maintained back-channel communications with and an ambassadorial presence in DC at all times. The broadening of the Gaza conflict into a regional war and the continued tensions in East Asia further portend a global catastrophe. Elevating voices of reason, compassion, peace, and yes, nuclear disarmament, is urgently needed. The Norwegian Nobel Committee played an admirable role in making it so.

    There is also a sense that the moment is bittersweet. Many of the atomic bomb survivors (Hibakusha), who have been so integral to the anti-nuclear movement, have already passed on. The ones who are still alive—all essentially in their 80s and 90s—watch in despair as children are dying and suffer in Gaza, Ukraine, and elsewhere, and the prospect of nuclear war looms over all of humanity. Have their stories of pain, suffering, and devastation in the aftermath of the atomic bombings been shared in vain? Who has been listening? The world leaders, most especially leaders of the nine nuclear weapons–possessing countries, whose arsenals consist of approximately 12,500 nuclear warheads, have clearly not.

    The prize is a reminder—as the Hibakusha themselves are—that we must abolish and eliminate nuclear weapons, whose very existence Pope Francis has called immoral. Acknowledging the Hibakusha’s heroic efforts impels us to ask questions like “How much suffering is acceptable in the course of a war?” and “Are we willing to risk annihilation to achieve our geopolitical goals?” It strikes us as madness that nuclear weapons use is being considered again today.

    Russian leaders have made it clear that they would consider a nuclear response if Ukraine, with NATO’s assistance, uses US, United Kingdom, and other nations’ long-range missiles to attack deep inside of Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as UK leaders and American hawks, purportedly including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have been pressuring President Joe Biden to authorize such attacks based on the assumption that Putin will once again back down. Some US military leaders appear to have thus far prevailed upon President Biden not to go down this route. Both democratic and autocratic leaders can only ignore their own red lines so many times before being forced to respond. We saw this situation with Iran’s latest missile launch against Israel and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, President Putin, like President Biden, is surrounded by hawks who push him to act more boldly and show his resolve.

    The Middle East is equally alarming. The US appears to have stopped pressuring Israel to accept a ceasefire and given its approval to carry the war to Lebanon and weaken, if not eliminate, Hezbollah. Israel, meanwhile, contemplates its response to Iran’s recent missile attack. Israeli hawks, cheered on by former president Donald Trump and others, demand an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. Should such an attack occur, with or without US assistance, Iran would likely rush to develop a bomb. While Iran was only enriching uranium to 3.67 percent when the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear deal, was in effect, it is now purportedly enriching to 60 percent and could quickly ramp that up to over 90 percent or weapons-grade. If Iran develops a nuclear bomb, which it could probably do in weeks—not the year that it would have taken before Trump abrogated the JCPOA—how far behind would Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt be?

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may be less constrained than other leaders in using Israel’s substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons if Israel were threatened, appears to be doing all he can to draw the United States into a war with Iran. Should Israel strike Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities, the threatened Iranian response may spark the kind of cycle of retaliation that could indeed spark US involvement in defending its close ally. The United States is now sending a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense missile battery operated by US troops to Israel to blunt an expected Iranian missile response and Biden administration officials are doubling down on their promise to defend Israel. How will Iran’s friends Russia and China respond to US-Israel war with Iran? With multiple nuclear-armed powers in this volatile region, the chances of nuclear war would skyrocket.

    Speaking of China, the situation in the Pacific is equally poised for confrontation. Conflicts over Taiwan and the South China Sea threaten to burst out at any time. The United States under President Biden has been militarizing the region and the Chinese are responding with their own buildup. US Air Force General Mike Minihan has predicted a war between the US and China in 2025. Other analysts and military officials consider Minihan alarmist and push the date for the inevitable war back by two to four years. US regional allies, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and New Zealand, also appear to be preparing for such an eventuality with new military bases, large-scale military exercises, the introduction of new weapons systems, troop buildups, and sharply increased military spending. Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has called for the establishment of an Asian NATO to contain China and expressed his desire to engage in nuclear sharing with the US, a long-standing practice currently operative in five European countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey) and also in Belarus with Russian nuclear weapons. Japan has already effectively shredded its postwar peace constitution and is doubling its military spending, in total and complete abjuration of the message of Nihon Hidankyo and the Hibakusha.

    Amidst the bleak international picture and the prospects of nuclear war, there is some good news besides the Nobel Peace Prize—the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The TPNW is the latest international instrument to attempt to control, as other agreements have done, but also to abolish, nuclear weapons. This is the treaty that the Hibakusha community has been utterly devoted to and has worked very hard to support. To get to the full treaty implementation, we not only need a change of course on geopolitical relations, but also a paradigm shift on nuclear weapons, as called for by Ambassador Alexander Kmentt of Austria and as already practiced by the 150 parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that do not rely on nuclear weapons for their security.

    Nuclear deterrence works brilliantly until it stops working, and then, as President Kennedy said of his hawkish military advisers who urged an invasion of Cuba during the missile crisis in 1962, “none of us will be alive to tell them they were wrong.” The US relies on nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence for so-called national security. What is security if the US can spend a trillion dollars a year on “defense,” only to be vulnerable to total and utter destruction in nuclear war? How can something that threatens to destroy not just the foundations of our civilization, but humanity itself, at the same time keep us safe? One answer is that we have quite simply been lucky and that our luck may run out, and very soon.

    Ultimately, people everywhere will need to help tear down the system that threatens to destroy our world each and every day. This may seem like an exaggeration, but in the fall of 2022, the US Central Intelligence Agency put the probability of nuclear weapon use in Ukraine at 50 percent. Once the genie is out, simulations suggest that the use of a single bomb would inevitably lead to a full-blown nuclear war, in a matter of mere minutes.

    Even if the probability of use is far smaller than 50 percent, over time, it adds up. An estimate by professor Martin Hellman of Stanford University, before the Ukraine war and the other current conflicts, was 1 percent per year. This translates to more than a 50 percent chance of nuclear conflict in the 80-year projected lifetime of a child born today. These are unacceptable odds for our children and grandchildren and for humanity as a whole.

    We call on President Biden to invite the Nobel Prize recipients to the White House to discuss their experience in the aftermath of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We furthermore call on him to organize a forum on nuclear disarmament at the White House to forge a path forward for eliminating the global nuclear scourge, using the framework of the TPNW.

    Moreover, we call for an emergency global summit of the most powerful world leaders to heed the call of the planet’s citizens to find diplomatic offramps to all the global crises before it is too late. In the immediate aftermath of the Cuban missile crisis, President Kennedy and Chairman Khrushchev both understood how close we had come to nuclear annihilation and that we had survived more by luck than by statesmanship in a situation over which they had both lost control. After the crisis, Khrushchev wrote Kennedy a letter urging that they work together to eliminate all conflicts that could cause a new crisis. It took a while, but Kennedy responded in kind, and in his great American University Commencement Address called for an end to the Cold War and the nuclear arms race that hung over humanity like the Sword of Damocles.

    Few leaders of the world’s great nations have since spoken for the planet in the way Kennedy and Khrushchev did in 1963. That wisdom and statesmanship are more urgently needed today than at any time since the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war in 1962. We are teetering again today and desperate steps are needed to avert disaster. If Reagan and Gorbachev could come within a hairbreadth of eliminating nuclear weapons in Reykjavik in 1986 as Kennedy and Khrushchev wanted to do in 1963, there is no reason we can’t achieve that today. This is what the Hibakusha have been imploring us to do for decades. We join people around the world in congratulating the members of Nihon Hidankyo on their well-deserved Nobel Peace Prize. May it be a wake-up call, and may their message of peace and nuclear abolition be heeded before it’s too late.


    Ivana Nikolić Hughes is President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and a senior lecturer in Chemistry at Columbia University. Her research on ascertaining the radiological conditions in the Marshall Islands has been covered widely, including by the Los Angeles Times. She is a member of the Scientific Advisory Group to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
    Peter Kuznick is a Professor of History and the Director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University.

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  • Elaine Scarry: The Extortionist’s Doctrine

    Elaine Scarry: The Extortionist’s Doctrine

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    The Extortionist’s Doctrine

    (We are excited to share this brilliant article by Professor Elaine Scarry, who delivered our 2019 Kelly Lecture and is a member of our Advisory Council.)

    On the persistence of U.S. nuclear deterrence policy.

    September 26, 2024 | Elaine Scarry
    *Originally published in the Boston Review

    The key structure of the doctrine of nuclear deterrence is audible in the September 4, 2024, speech by U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Cara Abercrombie: “Any nuclear attack by the DPRK against the United States or its allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime.” The doctrine, which the United States has embraced since the Cold War, aims to prevent an adversary from launching a nuclear weapon by assuring that any first strike will be followed by a retaliatory second strike, whose effects will equal or exceed the original damage and may eliminate the adversary altogether. This annihilating reflex of deterrence is equally audible in the quiet words of the Department of Defense in its web page on “America’s Nuclear Triad,” its sea-based, land-based, and air-based delivery platforms: “The triad, along with assigned forces, provide 24/7 deterrence to prevent catastrophic actions from our adversaries and they stand ready, if necessary, to deliver a decisive response, anywhere, anytime.”

    Framed wholly as defensive and preventative (and from day to day, largely successful in deflecting our attention from the actual first use stance the country has had for nearly eighty years), deterrence would almost have the aura of peacekeeping, were it not the mental platform undergirding our fourteen Ohio-class submarines (each able to singlehandedly destroy one of Earth’s seven continents), four hundred land-based ICBMs, and sixty-six B-52 and B-2 stealth bombers. Although the physical act of unbuilding the nuclear architecture is easily within reach—it would take at most four weeks to dismantle all the nuclear triggers throughout the world, a decisive because disabling first step—the mental architecture of deterrence is the major impediment to doing so.

    One of the fiercest critics of nuclear deterrence is the former commander in chief of the U.S. Strategic Command, General Lee Butler. While serving in that role, Butler simultaneously served as Director of the Joint Strategic Target Planning Staff, overseeing the selection and coordination of twelve thousand nuclear targets. In the year the Berlin Wall fell, he became the director for strategic plans and policy in the Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Butler could be crowing about the roles he had in overseeing the country’s nuclear deterrence in the twentieth century. Instead, from the deep interior of our country’s nuclear architecture, he has for decades denounced both the practice and theory of nuclear deterrence.

    In a 1996 address to the National Press Club, General Butler called for the abolition of nuclear weapons. He repeated that call in a speech before the National Press Club in 1998 where he outlined the strategic and moral failings of deterrence, and he elaborated those failings in his 2016 two-volume memoir, Uncommon Cause: A Life at Odds with Convention. Here is Butler’s overview of nuclear deterrence:

    Appropriated from the lexicon of conventional warfare, this simple prescription for adequate military preparedness became in the nuclear age a formula for potential catastrophe. [Deterrence is] premised on a litany of unwarranted assumptions, unprovable assertions and logical contradictions.

    Butler’s 1996 call for the elimination of nuclear weapons had been swiftly endorsed by sixty retired U. S. admirals and one hundred heads of state and government leaders, all of whom signed a public document confirming abolition as the correct course of action. But, despite his high standing, Butler’s 1998 denunciation of deterrence—while leading to energetic phone calls (for and against), interviews, and conference invitations (including one from Mikhail Gorbachev)—did not result in any formally codified statement of support, nor does it seem to have led to any publicly available counterstatement, an argument rejecting Butler’s claims and defending the coherence of the doctrine that sustains nuclear arsenals, its ethical stature, and its capacity to protect.

    After looking at Butler’s analysis, this essay will turn to the writings of Thomas Schelling—the 2005 Nobel prize–winning economist who offered the most comprehensive case for deterrence. The Department of Defense identifies Schelling as “one of the intellectual founders of U.S. nuclear deterrence thinking”; his writings are still used by practitioners today. Can Schelling rebut Butler’s charges? Can nuclear deterrence be defended?


    General Butler identifies eight flaws in the mindset and practice of nuclear deterrence:

    1. Deterrence “flies in the face of the most vital goal of national security: to ensure the survival of the nation.” Deterrence not only fails to fulfill this primary obligation; it radically contradicts it because it allows the fate of the country—and indeed the world—to turn on a vision of human action and judgment as infallible. This failure leads to Butler’s conclusion that “as a nation we have no greater responsibility than to rethink our reliance on nuclear deterrencehowever unpalatable that may be intellectually or politically.”

    2. Deterrence is “fatally flawed at the most fundamental level of human psychology.” It is premised on each side in a nuclear conflict presuming to place themselves in the opponent’s position; each believes they are able to understand the other side’s thinking, when in fact there’s no understanding, and often even very little attempt to understand one another. Leaders often aren’t rational, and even in cases where the leaders are “rational,” deterrence doesn’t prevent catastrophe. Robert McNamara, in his interview with filmmaker Errol Morris in Morris’s documentary Fog of War, says of the Cuban Missile Crisis: “Kennedy was rational. Khrushchev was rational.” And yet they came within a “hair’s breadth of war with the Soviet Union on three different occasions”; it was only “luck” that saved us, McNamara insists. Butler’s critique also draws on the Cuban Missile crisis: he stresses the “fog of mutual misperception” while “[clinging] to the notion that such a war could be reliably deterred.” With the United States and Soviet Union, it was “a dialogue of the blind with the deaf,” a conflict between two “darkly suspicious adversaries.”

    3. The third flaw in deterrence theory is that “the consequences of its failure are intolerable.” With conventional weapons, if you fail to deter, the consequences are bad: you may have just lost the battle; you may even have lost the war; your nation may even be now redesigned to become another nation. But you haven’t lost your whole population and certainly the earth survives. In nuclear deterrence failure, all is destroyed: failing means “poisoning the earth and deforming its inhabitants for generation upon generation”; jeopardizing “not just the fate of nations but the very meaning of civilization.”

    4. The fourth flaw is a fatal contradiction at the very center of deterrence thinking. Deterrence relies on the specter of a huge “second strike” capacity. If my opponent contemplates striking me first, he will be discouraged when he sees that even after that strike, I have an arsenal that can deliver massive retaliation, or at least retaliation far beyond what I just suffered.

    But here is the contradiction. To my opponent, this mighty second strike arsenal that I’ve amassed looks an awful lot like a first strike arsenal; and fearing that I might deliver a massive first strike blow, my opponents now have to vastly increase their own second strike line of discouragement, which in turn looks to me like a first strike option. Thus massive second strike—the key to deterrence defined as the practice of preventing nuclear war by discouraging a first strike—somersaults into the perceived position of a first strike. “The bar of deterrence,” Butler writes, “ratchets higher, igniting yet another cycle of trepidation, worst-case assumptions and ever-mounting levels of destructive capability.”

    In a 2024 interview, MIT’s Ted Postol argues that the long-range missiles now being scheduled to be stationed in Germany by 2026 for defensive purposes will almost certainly be perceived by Russians as a first strike preparation. Butler gives the earlier example of nuclear-armed MIRVs (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles) that, intended as second strike deterrence, instead “exacerbated serious fears of a nuclear first strike.” Echoing Butler’s description, interviews with twenty-two top Soviet military leaders after the breakup of the Soviet Union suggest that while the announced U.S. policy during the Cold War was second strike deterrence, the Soviet Union believed the United States was preparing for a first strike. Their list of first strike “indicators” leads with MIRVs:

    [Soviet military leaders’] most frequently cited indicators included: the development of the highly accurate, multiple warhead MX missile system; programs to develop accurate multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) warheads for existing missile systems (putting Soviet land-based ICBMs and control systems at risk); the relative vulnerability of U.S. missile silos and control centers to ground bursts; the large and diverse arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe; the consistent rejection by the United States of no first use doctrine; the deployment of the Pershing II missile and ground and sea launched cruise missiles capable of striking command and control targets in Soviet territory with little warning; and the issuance of Presidential Decision Memorandum 59 (PD-59), which the Soviets viewed to be a deliberate policy for launching a surprise decapitating first strike against the Soviet leadership.

    Not surprising is the conclusion the adversary drew from this list of indicators: “Soviet modeling and testing was based on the assumption that the United States would strike first.”

    5. The fifth flaw follows directly from that central contradiction. Deterrence, Butler writes, fails utterly “as a guide in setting rational limits on size and composition of U.S. and Soviet forces. To the contrary: the appetite of deterrence is “voracious.” It creates an “insatiable arms race.”

    The endless weapons research and production result from competition, not just among the weapons makers but between the Air Force and the Navy, who both compete for a preeminent position in the nuclear array. As a result, “new technology is inspired, together with new nuclear weapons designs, and soon new delivery systems roll from production lines.” What proliferates isn’t just weapons but also the “nether worlds” of bureaucracies: “astronomically expensive infrastructures, monolithic bureaucracies, complex processes that defied control or comprehension.”

    But the drive for new weapons comes not just from greed or the excitement of creating ever more ingenious forms of massacre; it also comes from that second strike/first strike paradox that resides at the heart of the deterrence philosophy. Deterrence expands rather than contracts the dangers; it heats up rather than cools off; it proliferates weapons and network complexity rather than dampening them down. “As their numbers [swell],” writes Butler, “so [mount] the stakes of miscalculation, of a crisis spun out of control.”

    6. The sixth flaw is the profound moral aberration of deterrence. Butler writes: “What better illustration of misplaced faith in nuclear deterrence than the persistent belief that retaliation with nuclear weapons is a legitimate and appropriate response to post–Cold War threats posed by weapons of mass destruction? What could possibly justify our resort to the very means we properly abhor and condemn? . . . What target could warrant such retaliation? Would we hold an entire society accountable for the decision of a single demented leader?”

    7. Closely related is the seventh flaw: even before any missiles are launched or populations are slain, deterrence destroys the minds and souls of those who have to bandy about the word “deterrence.”

    Butler worries that the cavalier reference to killing millions of people must harm anyone speaking that way. And part of what he considers is the tonal distance between the petty and trivializing idiom of a game theory framework and the immensity and complexity of the reality. So he writes at one point, “invoking deterrence [becomes] a cheap rhetorical parlor trick, a verbal sleight of hand. Proponents persist in dressing it up to court changing times and temperaments” so it will always “fit shrinking or distorted threats.” He adds, “Its wiles cannot be contained.” Butler never names game theory (nor does he ever risk compromising security by quoting the actual sentences swirling around him in the Pentagon or White House or Offutt Air Force Base). He instead, as here, uses the language of parlor tricks, gambling, “aura of utility,” the “easy semantic cover” of deterrence, its quality as “catechism,” “litany,” “folly,” a hybrid of “simple precept” and “treacherous application.” Game theory is widely acknowledged to underwrite much of deterrence theory, and individuals like Thomas Schelling openly describe long bouts of strategic gaming with leading civilian and military leaders. Schelling also describes his own government service in the early 1950s, and his early recognition that bargaining was key to the nuclear architecture.

    For Butler, the vocabulary and mental practices of nuclear deterrence damage individuals because they “pander to our darkest instincts. They corrode our sense of humanity, numb our capacity for moral outrage, and make thinkable the unimaginable.” They damage individuals whether they live in capitalist or communist states. Just as deterrence theory damages individuals, so it damages groups of planners. It replaces discussion, deliberation, and debate with a set of moves. Rather than listening to the other side, we’re caught in what one theorist—David Runciman in his 2018 How Democracies End—calls “a technical game of tit-for-tat advantage.”

    Butler writes, “From the very beginning of the nuclear era, the objective scrutiny and searching debate essential to adequate comprehension and responsible oversight of its vast enterprises were foreshortened or foregone. The cold light of dispassionate scrutiny was shuttered in the name of security, doubts dismissed in the name of an acute and unrelenting threat, objections overruled by incantations of the nuclear priesthood.”

    8. Lastly, nuclear deterrence theory promotes international proliferation. If we think deterrence makes the world safer, then many other countries should adopt it too. Thus it not only incites proliferation by prompting the nuclear country to keep making new weapons; it also proliferates nuclear arsenals by spreading the weapons and ways of thinking to other, formerly non-nuclear, countries. As Butler warns, “Others are listening, [and] have converted to our theology.”

    The U.S. defense priesthood celebrates deterrence as keeping the world safe in the second half of the twentieth century and leading to the breakup of the Soviet Union. Butler once believed this account, but says those decades are far too complex to allow us to believe we already comprehend what happened, and that understanding will only come about after many decades. In the meantime, much evidence contradicts the notion that nuclear deterrence brought down the Berlin Wall: Butler cites Soviet archives crediting NATO’s conventional forces and soft power.

    Describing a deeply flawed strategy through these eight flaws, Butler launches his devastating critique of deterrence from the inside as a framework with an “awful willingness not simply to tempt the apocalypse but to prepare its way.” The beliefs and mindsets it generates, he argues, “must be let go.”

    While other Department of Defense insiders have not—to this writer’s knowledge—issued a similar denunciation of deterrence, some have issued an equally clear call for nuclear abolition, as can be heard in the words of late Secretary of State Henry Kissinger (whose call for a nuclear-free world assisted the emergence of Nuclear Zero), former Secretary of Defense William Perry (founder of the William Perry Project, the aim of which is to awaken the American public to the dire twenty-first-century peril), and late Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara (who in the pages of Foreign Policy and elsewhere described U.S. nuclear weapons policy as “illegal, immoral, and dreadfully dangerous”). Although Kissinger, Perry, and McNamara do not explicitly denounce deterrence as a lie, their call for nuclear abolition reveals their conviction that nuclear deterrence is a false doctrine: a person who believes the Orwellian platitude that “nuclear deterrence prevents nuclear war” would never call for the elimination of nuclear weapons. McNamara and Perry may instead be accurately described as “agonizing” about the urgent importance of eliminating nuclear weapons: McNamara’s eloquent soliloquies in Fog of War, for example, sound—in the strain those soliloquies place on his chest and neck—closer to bodily retching or praying than to speaking. He is a man almost on his knees supplicating the public to hear what he is saying.


    While we wait for a government insider or defense contractor to step up to the plate to answer General Butler’s eight charges, we can turn to Schelling, father of deterrence theory, whose influential writings and public talks are routinely (and not inaccurately) described as brilliant. Perhaps he provides the best case that can be given for deterrence. Game theory, as the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy points out in its essay on the subject, was originally only a theoretical construct until it got its first real-world material to play with—nuclear war. Schelling’s trio of books on the subject—The Strategy of Conflict (1960), Strategy and Arms Control (1961), and Arms and Influence (1966)—were some of the primary conduits through whom the gift to game theorists was delivered.

    Schelling’s case for deterrence bypasses some of Butler’s grounds of denunciation and anticipates others, but does not appear to successfully overcome any of them. He is wholly silent on the moral turpitude of nuclear deterrence in arranging for the mass slaying of populations either by a first strike or a second strike. Schelling raises no query about the moral status of deterrence, or about what he at one point in Arms and Influence quotes a fellow scholar describing as “the usual mercies.” He certainly uses adjectives which ordinarily have a moral valence, as when he describes nuclear bargaining as a particularly “vicious” form of negotiation, or its violence as “monstrous.” But adjectives like “vicious” and “monstrous” are not invoked to express disapproval and certainly not to advocate stepping away from the practice of deterrence being described. And in noting the parallel between international nuclear threats and blackmail or extortion by gangs, he is not launching into a recommendation that we step away from such practices. There are hundreds of such moments in Arms and Influence, reissued in 2008 (this time with a new preface from Schelling providing assurance that its principles are still relevant to the present and to all the new players—new nuclear states) and again in 2020.

    Because Schelling bypasses Butler’s sixth flaw, it is not surprising that he also bypasses the seventh, namely, Butler’s perception that the practitioners of deterrence, even if they have not yet overseen the launch of a weapon that massacres a people, have harmed their own minds and hearts by tossing about language that makes them incapable of hearing their own inhumanity. Schelling uses the deterrence language with speed and lucidity and does not pause to voice any worry about the surviving integrity of his own mind and soul. He notes, for example, one practice that might increase the chance that the United States and Russia will abstain from launching weapons against one another: to have all American children spend their kindergarten year in Russia and all Russian children spend their kindergarten year in the United States. (He is careful to stipulate that a given year’s kindergarteners will not be permitted to leave the opponent’s country until the next year’s kindergartners have arrived on that soil.) Schelling’s hideously ingenious suggestion might well be cited by advocates of nuclear abolition, since it shows how maniacal the peril is by showing how maniacal the solution is. But Schelling does not provide the example as prelude to any recommendation for negotiating the weapons out of existence. Similarly, noting that scientists have at times feared that nuclear fission might ignite the atmosphere, he observes that, were that the case, countries could figure out exactly how many nuclear weapons (N) would need to be detonated to ignite the atmosphere and then themselves proceed to detonate N-1 weapons. Rather than working to negotiate nuclear weapons out of existence—the best way to prevent nuclear weapons from exploding the atmosphere or kindergarten children from getting slain—Schelling rests content with keeping the nuclear weapons on hand and carrying out baroque and macabre cruelties to forestall the ultimate civilization-destroying disaster. Though he only rarely introduces disarmament in any of his books, his tone is dismissive when he does. In Strategy of Conflict, he notes that disarmament proposals tend to be either “ingenious” (i.e. unrealistic) or “sentimental” (i.e. worthy of scorn).

    In her preface to the 2020 edition of Arms and Influence, Anne-Marie Slaughter suggests that Schelling’s agility in moving between nuclear deterrence examples of negotiation and examples of negotiating traffic jams and child-raising indicates his “humanity,” revealing that he thinks of himself as residing in the midst of targeted civilians (people driving or parenting) rather than among those launching the weapons. But the tonal discrepancy between nuclear war and playful scenarios in which one is outwitted by one’s own children or by fellow drivers might arguably be construed as indicative of the psychic numbing Butler worries about. In the book, Schelling discusses the role of fallout shelters (hypothetical, as he notes, since the United States—unlike Russia, Switzerland, and Norway—has almost none), arguing that the government may jeopardize its warfighting position if it reveals its anticipation of war by warning the population to go into them. Likewise, he worries that if the population were warned in advance and then resided in shelters for several weeks while the nuclear conflict hadn’t yet begun, awareness of the population’s limited endurance might “coerce” the government into initiating a war it might not otherwise undertake.

    The loss of reality that a practitioner of deterrence theory is likely to suffer is illustrated when Schelling says in an interview that one could, before actually “using” nuclear weapons, “demonstrate” one’s willingness to use them by launching one, five, or ten nuclear weapons: “a shot across the bow.” Most people would not perceive five nuclear weapons—let’s say, traveling toward Boston, New York, Chicago, Washington, or Miami (or any quintet of cities in any country on earth)—as merely a “demonstration” or indication of a future willingness to use nuclear weapons. Such a startling idea might seem just an anomaly arising out of an interview. But in fact, it is very much part of strategic preparations that differentiates the SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan, in which thousands of weapons are exchanged in six hours) from LNO (Limited Nuclear Options, where a small number of missiles are launched), according to William Odom, who served as military assistant to Zbigniew Brzezinski during the Carter presidency. He describes his and Brzezinski’s desire to speak with Carter’s Chiefs of Staff about what seemed to them the incomprehensible logic of their LNO plan, but they instead received a memorandum assuring them it would increase credibility with the adversary. Odom writes:

    I was puzzled. Why would a half-dozen nuclear weapons launched at any target in the Soviet Union be less likely to provoke a large retaliatory nuclear response if coupled with a Soviet invasion of Western Europe? I tried to imagine President Carter sending Brezhnev a message over the Washington-Moscow Hotline, telling him than an LNO would soon be coming, and not to panic because it consisted of only six weapons and was intended to underscore U.S. credibility and lead to deescalation. And suppose Brezhnev responded, “I understand. I recognize your ‘credibility’ problem, but now I have a credibility problem. So I am launching only four nuclear weapons at Seattle. Do not panic. Additional strikes will not follow before we begin to negotiate.” What could the president do at this point?

    Schelling himself identifies as an important flaw in nuclear deterrence a lack of sufficient thinking about how or when two sides can “pause” in the midst of missile exchanges and about how to reach an end. In war, writes Paul Kecskemeti in Strategic Surrender, both sides cling ardently to their beliefs. In order for the war to end, one of them must give up their beliefs; this only happens because gradually losses accumulate, and one side undergoes a perceptual reversal, a “political reorientation” where the idea or possession they thought they couldn’t part with now seems something they can part with. The speed of nuclear war (happening in hours or days), coupled with the structural absence of pauses, makes such a process of reorientation impossible. Schelling himself does not appear to provide any solution to the absence of any rest stops throughout the nuclear exchange. But he very much pictures himself directly speaking to military strategists. His 2008 preface to Arms and Influence, for example, directly acknowledges that military and government officials will make use of his book, and he expresses the hope that new nuclear states will do likewise. He worries that there has been little attempt to build a “pause” option; but again, he is not worried about deterrence, only noting what remains to be done.

    Schelling’s bypassing of Butler’s sixth and seventh objections prepares us to recognize how he also evades the first. Butler expresses concern about the military’s first “obligation”—to ensure the survival of the nation. Far from presenting the safety of the population as the highest goal, Schelling observes that a country’s deterrence efforts may well be strengthened if the country makes clear to the opponent its willingness to lose some of its own cities. This argument would seem to be a very direct illustration of Butler’s charge that deterrence fails to ensure national survival, since it provides the country’s national security apparatus with intellectual license to offer one or more of its cities to nuclear annihilation as a way of making good on its own threats. The strategic advantages of the “hostage” phenomenon—whether dwellers in a specified city or all children of kindergarten age or the seven thousand American soldiers in West Berlin whose only purpose, says Schelling, is to die in order to guarantee U.S. retaliation in the event of Soviet trespass into the city—is key throughout Arms and Influence. Partial elimination of the opponent’s population is preferable to total elimination not because fewer people are killed, but because only the existence of survivors provides negotiating power.

    Schelling certainly sees the nuclear era as exceptional in the history of warfare, but he does not think the potentially large number of casualties is especially impressive, and he prefaces statements about the whole species being lost by the dismissive phrase “it is said”:

    Man has, it is said, for the first time in history enough military power to eliminate his species from the earth. . . . War has become, it is said, so destructive and terrible that it ceases to be an instrument of national power. . . . For dramatic impact these statements are splendid. . . . they do not help to identify just what is new about war.

    In World War II, he argues, U.S. soldiers could have killed every individual in Japan with an ice pick. This conclusion seems starkly wrong: Schelling forgets that to do so would require convincing thousands of individual U.S. soldiers to participate (without resistance or dissent) in this inconceivable act (accomplishing the same outcome with nuclear weapons requires only a single individual, the president, to assent); equally inconceivable is the idea that those U.S. soldiers who enter into one-on-one combat with Japanese citizens would in each case be the survivor. But even if his heartlessly inventive examples were plausible, they do not match the loss of the whole species, widely recognized to be a possible outcome of nuclear war and something that differentiates it from conventional warfare in the past or future. “Species” rarely occurs in his text (except to designate a subgenre of intellectual strategy unconnected to human beings); nor does the word “earth.”

    Nothing in Schelling suggests that he is at peace with our whole nation (let alone our whole planetary civilization) being lost, but neither does he very often seem to perceive the truth of the “splendid” sentences pointing to the loss of the whole species as a possibility, nor does he put forward an argument that we are not in danger of losing our whole population. In Butler’s formulation the military, or national security, has as its primary responsibility ensuring our country’s survival, yet Schelling might well point out that it is wholly predictable that his own view should be at odds with the military’s (and hence with Butler’s) since he repeatedly stresses throughout Arms and Influence that strategy in the nuclear age is at odds with classical military strategy on exactly this point. He repeatedly differentiates military objectives (victory; disabling the other side’s military force) from nuclear negotiation (“hurt” and “suffering”), outcomes he believes the military has almost never sought, except in rare exceptions such as Sherman’s march through Georgia or Sheridan’s against the Comanches: their wanton acts of cruelty, he writes, are rare instances where military practice of the past provided precedents for the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. Thus he writes: “Proud military establishments do not like to think of themselves as extortionists.” Many other moments in Arms and Influence register a fork in the road between conventional military interests (which, he reiterates, ordinarily have no interest in causing suffering) and nuclear strategy (centered in hurt and suffering).

    In own writings and often quoted by others, Schelling makes the idea of “hurt” central to his definition of nuclear power. As he is quoted in a 2016 article from West Point’s Modern War Institute: “The power to hurt is bargaining power. . . . To exploit it is diplomacy, vicious diplomacy, but diplomacy.” Admirers of these statements often see it as an extension of Clausewitz’s famous dictum, “War is the continuation of politics by other means.” But Schelling’s statement is much more radical, anarchic, and amoral than is Clausewitz’s recognition that conflicts and the settling of conflicts are shared by politics and war. In the social contract theory of Thomas Hobbes, negotiation, agreement, and conversation are the radical opposite of war, not phenomena that can be coupled with war. The whole point of the social contract, as he repeats over and over in Leviathan, “is getting us out of the miserable condition of war.” In three different works—Leviathan, On the Citizen, and De Corpore—Hobbes states that injury is to the social contract what logical absurdity is to discourse. Schelling understands this: he rightly points out that in classical military strategy, negotiation is the very opposite of acts carried out to inflict suffering. The hybrid of negotiation and suffering, he often repeats, comes only with nuclear deterrence.

    Butler’s second objection—that deterrence requires a form of psychology incompatible with preventing war—specifies that one key psychological feature of deterrence is its overreliance on “western reason.” Others have made this particular critique. Schelling himself complains that game theory is often accused (wrongly, in his view) of being “hyper-rational” when in reality, he counters, it can be used as a way of dealing with “children and animals,” and is therefore an appropriate tool for “irrational” as well as “rational” situations. Schelling of course recognizes historical examples of leaders who are out of control (Khrushchev), who say things that he considers wildly imprudent and dangerous (Kennedy’s October 22, 1962 public threat to the Soviet Union, a potentially fatal lapse from an otherwise rational participant), or who are stark madmen (Hitler). He credits “irrationality” as itself a potential strategy, as in the “madman” theory where a person who appears deranged gets his way because the opponent sees his adversary may not have the option of pulling back. In his famous example of two cars speeding toward each other in a game of chicken, the driver who holds a detached steering wheel up in the air wins. Late in Arms and Influence, he lists other sources of irrationality that afflict both the United States and the Soviets: “budgetary inertia, interservice disputes, ideological touchstones, and the intellectual limitations of a political bureaucracy, as well as from plain bad information.”

    But as Butler and many other observers complain, deterrence assumes that two countries locked in exchanging threats will maintain a rational frame. In many interviews, Schelling maintains that rationality will not break down. For instance, in an appearance on a 1986 public television program, he is asked if he can imagine any situation that might cause deterrence to break down. He says he cannot. The interviewer then presents him with a series of plausible breakdown scenarios, to which Schelling responds in turn: high-level government officials are “unwilling to do things that they genuinely think would be reckless”; escalation would be “an abdication of responsibility”; “foolish things” or actions “mistakenly perceived” by both sides would have to happen before nuclear war became inevitable. But high-tension moments of international conflict are precisely situations liable to contain recklessness, foolishness, misperception, and abdication of responsibility. Schelling insists that rationality will remain in place.

    It should be noted that Schelling’s hypothetical response to Butler’s second objection also explains why he cannot answer Butler’s third, namely, “the consequences of failure are intolerable.” Many would say this observation alone provides a reason for immediate disarmament. But Schelling can’t address this possibility (other than as a set of “splendid sentences”) because he really cannot comprehend how deterrence could break down: it hasn’t broken down, he reports, in all the war games he’s been playing with high-level civilian and military officers; and after all, that would be foolish. At one point in the 1986 interview, he claims, citing his war gaming experience, that “escalation to nuclear war is extremely unlikely.” Then, after elaborating the nature of the gaming (and the high-level military and government people involved), he reiterates the claim while making it slightly less absolute: “Therefore I tend not to believe that every war escalates nuclear and becomes a holocaust.” When asked again if he believes a nuclear exchange will “inevitably escalate into the destruction of both sides,” he repeats that escalation is “doubtful.” Now the interviewer presses him on imagining a situation in Berlin that would lead to “nuclear escalation.” He says he can’t see how that could happen: it would have to be “fog of war,” or confusion, or one side incorrectly perceiving the other.

    A genre of event others may think moves us closer to disaster, an increase in the possibility of accidental nuclear war, Schelling instead judges to be an event that moves as farther away from disaster. In The Strategy of Conflict, after acknowledging that the risk of accidental nuclear war increases during periods of international crises, Schelling asks, “But is not this mechanism itself a kind of deterrent threat?” It is, he explains, because the recognition that the moment is dangerous means everyone is more careful.

    Butler’s second objection—a mismatch between the psychology of deterrence and handling of nuclear weapons—is based not only on an inappropriate reliance on a rational frame but a pretense of understanding what the opponent is thinking (while not actually making an effort to understand the opponent). The importance of listening to one’s enemy has throughout history been recognized, formalized in the Latin principle audi alteram partem—hear the other side. This at the very least means that during the deliberations about whether to issue a declaration of war, someone on the home side voices the point of view of the foreign adversary in order to test the legitimacy of the claims made against the putative “enemy” (in fact, the accuracy of the term “enemy” is what is often debated), as I’ve detailed in my 2014 book, Thermonuclear Monarchy. This description is true of the Congressional debates preceding the vote on the United States’ declaration of war prior to the War of 1812, the Mexican-American War of 1846, the 1898 Spanish-American War, and World War I. In the case of World War II, the deliberations on the declarations of war against Japan, Germany, and Italy were completed in a few hours after the United States had been attacked, yet prior to Pearl Harbor there had been two years of discussion about whether the United States should enter the war, during which the adversary’s perspective was sometimes voiced.

    While ordinarily members of the home country (in the interest of heading off a needless or erroneous war) take it upon themselves to understand and articulate the opponent’s point of view, in unusual cases, a representative of the opposing nation may get to make the argument, and not just in quoted reports, but inside the deliberating assembly. In Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War, the Lacedaemonians, meeting in assembly to debate going to war against Athens, permitted an Athenian (a merchant, there on business) to address the assembly. In the age of nuclear deterrence, little room appears to be made for listening to a rival country’s suffering, its border fears, its aspirations, its sources of pride, its fear of shaming, its sense of necessity. “Hear the other side” has been reduced to hearing only the threats made by the other side, hearing information on the number and placement of their weapons, overhearing (through surveillance) their war games. It is empty of almost all psychological content other than winning and losing, even in a frame where everyone loses. Schelling repeatedly stresses the importance of “communication.” But it is communication restricted to moves and countermoves.


    We have so far covered five features of General Butler’s denunciation of nuclear deterrence—objections one, two, three, six, and seven. We will now turn to the inadequate response Schelling provides to Butler’s fifth and eighth objections. We will then turn to an important place where their visions meet: Butler’s fourth objection. In pursuing it, we will come upon what Schelling himself identifies a desirable form of disarmament (the only form of disarmament he appears to countenance).

    Butler’s fifth objection is that weapons production is out of control. The surfeit of nuclear arms is often something upon which both advocates of disarmament and advocates of deterrence agree. Today there are twelve thousand warheads worldwide (the number includes approximately 2,500 that are nominally “retired” but not dismantled and therefore readily available for use). Research by Rutgers University scientists shows that if even less than one percent of this arsenal is used, twenty million people will die on the first afternoon and a billion in the thirty days following an exchange of nuclear weapons. The total number of the world arsenal is, by all accounts, enough to destroy the surface of the earth many times over.

    When Schelling first published Arms and Influence in 1966, the world stockpile was thrice as high as that of today; when Strategy and Conflict was reissued in 1980, it was approaching its peak of fifty-four thousand warheads. Nearly alone among either disarmament or deterrence advocates, Schelling was not concerned about these numbers. In Arms and Influence, he observes that deterrence theorists who feel confident that countries will not intentionally go to war often worry that a nuclear war may start by accident, and they believe that the chances of accident go up as the number of warheads goes up. Schelling argues the contrary. We need these high numbers of weapons, he writes, in order to

    have forces secure enough and so adequate in number that they need not react with haste for fear of not being able to react at all, secure enough and so adequate in number that, when excited by alarm, we can be conservative and doubt the enemy’s intent to attack, and that the enemy has confidence in our ability to be calm, helping him keep calm himself.

    Schelling gives a second reason. He argues that locks on weapons and restraining devices on procedures will be resisted and foregone if we have lower numbers of warheads, and have to fear that some of our weapons may turn out to be duds. We will be more reluctant to put brakes on any of them. He acknowledges that the argument on this point is not yet settled, but urges that his view—that high warhead numbers decrease the chance of accidental nuclear war—ought at least to be taken into account.

    In his earlier book, Strategy and Arms Control, co-written with Morton Halperin, Schelling had already voiced the notion that large numbers of weapons could decrease rather than increase the odds of accidental nuclear war: “It would be pushing the argument to an extreme to suggest that the present arms race is safer than an arms-control environment would be.” In fact he goes on to argue that it may be virtuous—or at least wise—to renege on an arms agreement:

    It is unwise to expect any government to adhere long to the spirit and letter of an agreement that it has come to perceive as no longer compatible with its security interests. It has to be acknowledged that the motives for open violation, even clandestine violation, may be of the most respectable or of the most reprehensible sort. And the very likelihood that the other main participants, or the opposing bloc of participants, may at any time abandon the agreement is itself a motive for continually analyzing the wisdom of going along. There may, on the analogy with war itself, be a phenomenon of “preventive” or “pre-emptive” violation or denunciation.

    In The Strategy of Conflict, he argues similarly that larger number of missiles on both sides decrease the danger of a first strike by the adversary.

    Butler not only worries about the proliferation of weapons inside any one country, but about the spread of weapons across countries—his eighth objection: if the key to peace and the avoidance of nuclear war is having nuclear weapons, then other countries will not only want, but should want, to acquire them. Here again Schelling is blind to the logic that framing nuclear deterrence as an agent of peace prompts other nations to acquire the weapons. In his 2008 preface to Arms and Influence, he expresses his hope that new members of the nuclear club will read and benefit from his account of strategic deterrence: “My expectation is that Indians and Pakistanis who think about these things will find the book quite pertinent; my hope is that North Koreans and Iranians who think about these things will find the book illuminating.” He hopes even terrorists will see they should use nuclear weapons to negotiate, and not detonate the weapons themselves. But neither in this book nor other books does he welcome the spread of weapons, and he recommends, among other things, the possibility that Russia and the United States work together to discourage newcomers from acquiring nuclear weapons. Crucially, he does not recognize that the buoyant account he gives of nuclear strategy (which provides a new country with a glowing account of the advantages of possession) is contradicted by his worry about other countries having them: “It seems very likely that the world would be more dangerous if a dozen or so countries developed nuclear capabilities.”

    We now turn at last to Butler’s fourth objection, the only one with which Schelling appears to be in agreement, or at least partial agreement. Nuclear deterrence seeks to amass a second strike arsenal that will discourage (deter) the enemy from carrying out a first strike; but that defensive arsenal may be construed by the enemy as preparation for a first strike, thereby accelerating that opponent’s own advance toward a first strike. Deterrence, if this is true, continually threatens to bring about the very act it was designed to suppress.

    This is one phenomenon Schelling agrees with throughout his writings. For example, in Strategy and Arms Control he writes:

    It is sometimes argued that airborne alert for the bomber force is a ‘stabilizing’ measure; it provides assurance that we could retaliate after an attack. . . . At the same time, it has been argued that airborne alert is ‘provocative’ in getting a fraction of our bomber force in a state of alert that could be exploited for a quick effort to knock out Soviet bombers and missiles.”

    In Arms and Influence, Schelling generalizes this feedback loop (no longer confining it to the airborne bomber force): from as early as 1958 forward, Americans, Soviets, and the wider arms control community have recognized “the possibility that, in a crisis, reciprocal suspicions might be amplified by a feedback process, each side’s preparation against surprise looking like preparations for attack.” In The Strategy of Conflict, Schelling dedicates an entire chapter to the feedback loop: “If surprise carries an advantage, it is worthwhile to avert it by striking first. Fear that the other may be about to strike in the mistaken belief that we are about to strike gives us a motive for striking, and so justifies the other’s motive.” Entitled “The Reciprocal Fear of Surprise Attack,” the chapter examines the conditions under which the nuclear feedback loop, already dangerous, remains steady or instead becomes continually self-amplifying. Schelling’s attention to the feedback loop warrants yet another chapter in Strategy and Conflict: “We live in an era in which a potent incentive on either side—perhaps the main incentive—to initiate total war with a surprise attack is the fear of being a poor second for not going first.”

    Quite apart from this feedback loop, in which the key move in nuclear deterrence incites the onset of nuclear war it was supposed to prevent, Schelling over and over acknowledges that participants will perceive “first strike” as the winning move, as here in Arms and Influence:

    Military technology that puts a premium on haste in a crisis puts a premium on war itself. A vulnerable military force is one that cannot wait, especially if it faces an enemy force that is vulnerable if the enemy waits.

    If the weapons can act instantaneously by the flip of a switch, a “go” signal, and can arrive virtually without warning to do decisive damage, the outcome of the crisis depends simply on who first finds the suspense unbearable. If the leaders on either side think the leaders on the other are about to find it unbearable, their motive to throw the switch is intensified.

    In The Strategy of Conflict, Schelling quotes others as saying first strike is an advantage and abstaining from first strike a disadvantage. He cites General Leslie R. Groves, for instance, who argued that “our reluctance to strike first is a military disadvantage to us; but it is also, paradoxically, a factor in preventing a world conflict today.” And Schelling in his own voice repeatedly acknowledges the strategic advantage of first strike:

    We do not . . . assess American and Soviet strategic forces by counting up the bombers, missiles, submarines, and aircraft carriers on both sides, as though we wanted to see who could put on the most impressive peace-time parade. ‘Who is ahead?’ in the arms race will usually be: whoever strikes first.

    He credits the idea that if first strike capability were eliminated on all sides, this would amount to a form of disarmament.

    Schelling’s openness to even the word “disarmament” here is potentially fertile ground for anyone trying to understand how the denunciation of deterrence and the celebration of deterrence have any hope for locating common ground. Schelling, after all, is usually dismissive of disarmament. He speaks in Arms and Influence of disarmament talks as distracting and unhelpful, in his comments like “the noise emanating from Geneva” or his reference to “Pugwash Conference and other minor efforts.”

    One chapter contemplates disarming all countries and relying on an international force armed with nuclear weapons to maintain the peace: but at its best, he argues, such a force would only carry out what the United States and NATO can already carry out, and at its worst it might become something so authoritarian it would require on the citizenry’s part a revolution.

    The fact that Schelling acknowledges the dismantling of first strike as a form of disarmament is crucial. Peace activists—as well as former members of the Department of Defense, like William Perry—often argue the same: if every country adopts a No First Use policy, there ceases to be any way for a nuclear war to occur. China and India have long had No First Use policies, as has Russia during some periods. The United States has never embraced No First Use, despite the fact that at least two of its presidents—Obama and Biden—have at various times considered eliminating the country’s First Use policy, and despite repeated invitations from Russia and a current invitation from China in its July 2024 “No-first-use of Nuclear Weapons Initiative Working Paper” submitted to the United Nations, reaffirming its own pledge of No First Use and urging “the five nuclear-weapon States to negotiate and conclude a treaty on ‘mutual no-first-use of nuclear weapons’” or issue a political statement in this regard.

    Schelling’s specific proposal for disarmament based on elimination of first strike unfortunately seems to quickly become a magnified form of deterrence theory, rather than a major step toward the total disarmament the nuclear states promised in the Nonproliferation Treaty. Schelling believes that surprise attack can be ended by eliminating first strike weapons, or by eliminating first strike practices, or by eliminating first strike advantages. He proposes seeking to remove all weapons designed to take out the adversary’s military (in his view, these are first strike weapons), and keep only those weapons designed to massacre the populations of cities (in his view, second strike weapons); though he acknowledges that there is no bright line separating the two genres. He urges that both sides will need very high, not very low, numbers of these anti-population weapons; and drawing on the writing of deterrence colleague Bernard Brodie, he supposes that they should be high potency, “super-dirty bombs . . . as horrendous as possible.” Submarines play a large role in this vision.

    Butler described deterrence as full of “logical contradictions,” and here is one more. After our long journey that began with the acknowledgment that deterrence sets up second strike to eliminate first strike, but finds that it fails because the second strike looks to the adversary like a first strike and therefore encourages the adversary to himself carry out a first strike, we now have a proposal that we can move to disarmament by, yes, setting up a disarmament protocol based on anti-population second strike weapons and eliminating first strike, forgetting altogether that these second strike weapons will look to the adversary like first strike, carrying us back to our original “orgy” (Schelling’s word) of destruction.

    Nuclear deterrence strategists openly concede that they use threats of annihilation as “blackmail” for coercing the adversary’s compliance with our country’s demands. Perhaps the citizenry of our country has passively accepted nuclear deterrence by the same rhythms of blackmail. Just as Schelling argues that mounting nuclear arsenals make us safer (making us reluctant to argue that our arsenals be reduced), and just as he argues that international crises decrease the likelihood of nuclear war by putting us on high alert (making us tolerate our government’s forward path into crisis after crisis), so here at last Schelling tells us the elimination of first strike is only going to eliminate military targets and produce massive preparation for attacks on foreign cities (making us reluctant to demand what the most minimal moral impulse would require of us, the elimination of first strike). We are intimidated into accepting our country’s large arsenals, frequent participation in international crises, and a national policy of first use in the same way that the country’s adversaries are intimidated into acceding to U.S. demands.

    However, Schelling’s even momentary equation of the elimination of first use with disarmament coincides with many voices urging its elimination. With seventy nations having ratified or acceded to the International Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and with pending U.S. legislation and litigation-in-preparation on the unconstitutionality of presidential first use of nuclear weapons, the world is ready for the elimination of first strike, as well as taking weapons off alert (a practice confined to the United States and its British and French allies) and keeping missiles unmated to delivery systems (as has long been China’s practice) until further steps toward disarmament can be achieved.

    Thomas Schelling’s Nobel prize–winning writings make perfectly clear the true and truly hideous character of the negotiations embedded in deterrence. They only confirm the eight flaws identified by General Lee Butler, the former head of our nuclear forces, in his denunciation of the theory and practice of deterrence.


    Elaine Scarry is Walter M. Cabot Professor of Aesthetics and the General Theory of Value at Harvard University. She is author of many books, including Thermonuclear Monarchy: Choosing Between Democracy and Doom.

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  • Ambassador Alexander Kmentt Lecture at Columbia University

    Ambassador Alexander Kmentt Lecture at Columbia University

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    On October 10, 2024, H.E. Ambassador Alexander Kmentt of Austria delivered a lecture at Columbia University, calling for a paradigm shift on nuclear weapons. The well-attended event drew students, youth, and activists.

    Ambassador Kmentt challenged reliance on deterrence theory, emphasizing that while it cannot be definitively proven or disproven, its risks are too great to ignore. He advocated for placing the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons at the heart of policy discussions, urging a shift toward disarmament and long-term global security.

    The lecture was followed by a dynamic Q&A session, where attendees engaged with Ambassador Kmentt’s perspectives on disarmament challenges and solutions. A reception hosted by Dr. Ivana Hughes concluded the event, bringing together diplomats, activists, and students to continue the conversation.

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    Ambassador Alexander Kmentt at Columbia University

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    Columbia University students

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    Left to Right: Anastasia Shakhidzhanova, Véronique Christory, Ambassador Alexander Kmentt, Dr. Ivana Hughes

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    Audience

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    Columbia University student poses a question to Ambassador Kmentt

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    Reception at Dr. Hughes’s Apartment

    [/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

  • Podcast Alert! Dr. Ivana Hughes on Camp Gagnon

    Podcast Alert! Dr. Ivana Hughes on Camp Gagnon

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    Dr. Hughes interviewed with Mark Gagnon from the YouTube channel Camp Gargon about the threat nuclear weapons pose to our world. Please see below for full video.

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    TIMESTAMPS:
    00:00 Intro
    1:12 How close are we to nuclear war?
    5:09 We’re looking at the end of civilization
    15:39 What would trigger nuclear launches? Target list
    21:25 Nuclear deterrence logic isn’t infallible
    24:45 We only have 72 minutes
    32:54 Nuclear winter + Nagasaki/Hiroshima is child’s play compared to now
    39:17 Immediate impact of nuclear war in the US + Marshall Islands
    48:52 Where does the fallout go?
    53:15 Who are the other nuclear powers? Dismantling weapons
    57:57 De-nuclearization + No-First Use treaty
    1:04:31 Hair-trigger v separation of heads from ICBMs
    1:06:26 1980s – decade of denuclearization
    1:13:36 Tremendous waste + continued testing Marshall Islands
    1:15:33 Who survives? Coming out of the stone age again
    1:21:43 MAD + rogue leader + North Korea’s ability
    1:29:31 Modernizing nukes + we use nukes every day
    1:33:34 North Korea + Iran arming + proliferation
    1:37:55 Nuclear winter + how did other countries catch up?
    1:44:58 The H-bomb + Where do you get Uranium?
    1:53:30 Close call incidents + launch on warning
    2:04:15 Cuban Missile Crisis + JFK’s march to peace signed his death warrant
    2:18:36 Can we ever fully Denuclearize? What needs to happen?
    2:37:02 Doomsday bunkers + celebrity influence
    2:43:26 Women’s role in denuclearization + resources

    [/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

  • Youth Statement to the NPT Preparatory Committee

    Youth Statement to the NPT Preparatory Committee

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    On July 23, 2024, Bobby Verhey and Pranathi Chintalapudi delivered a statement on behalf of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and its youth initiative, Reverse the Trend, at the NGO session of the NPT Preparatory Committee to the 11th Review Conference. See below for the full video, the article published by Common Dreams, and the full text of the statement.

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    Honorable Chair and Distinguished Delegates,

    We are ninety seconds to midnight. A handful of increasingly belligerent leaders threaten the total annihilation of our world. At the same time, our leaders tell us the fallacy of nuclear deterrence. We teeter on the edge of wiping out our history and our cultures. As youth, we are the ones who will inherit this world: A world afflicted with perpetual conflicts, climate crises, and nuclear threats. Therefore, we call upon our leaders to hear us and act. We must work together.

    The NPT represents a grand bargain: the Non-Nuclear-Armed States agreed not to acquire nuclear weapons and, in exchange, the Nuclear-Armed States agreed to negotiate in “good faith” toward nuclear disarmament. Unfortunately, all nine Nuclear-Armed States are modernizing their arsenals. This failure of nuclear-armed states to adhere to Article VI obligations disregards our past and threatens our future.

    Honorable Chair and Distinguished Delegates,

    We are approaching 80 years since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In Hiroshima, atomic bombs killed 140,000 people by the end of 1945, and another 70,000 people died in Nagasaki. The resulting cancers and radiation-related illnesses killed many more in the decades that followed.

    As the last generation to hear the firsthand accounts of the Hibakusha, we must heed their warnings — their lived reality mobilizes us to work toward the abolition of nuclear weapons.

    We cannot achieve a nuclear-weapon-free world without nuclear justice—not only for Hibakusha, but also for the Indigenous people of Australia, French-occupied Polynesia, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, the Southwest United States, and many other unconsenting communities devastated by nuclear testing. The ramifications of 20th century weapons use are still felt today. We demand restorative, procedural, and distributive action that centers environmental remediation and victims assistance for nuclear-affected communities, who have historically and disproportionately been Indigenous Peoples and other marginalized communities. Nuclear-armed states are directly accountable for the ongoing devastation of affected communities.

    Coupled with disproportionate health effects on women, these tests perpetuate the legacies of colonialism and gender inequality. The ongoing consequences of nuclear testing are a dire warning of what our future could be.

    A single modern nuclear weapon, which can be thousands of times more powerful than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, detonated over a major city would create an unparalleled humanitarian catastrophe, with hundreds of thousands immediately vaporized and many more left with complex injuries, crumbling infrastructure, and no access to medical care. A nuclear war using less than 3% of the world’s nuclear weapons could kill up to every 3rd person on earth.

    Despite this looming Armageddon, all nine Nuclear-armed states are modernizing and increasing their arsenals, for a total sum of $91.8 billion US Dollars in 2023 alone. This wasteful spending, which would be better spent on clean energy solutions, healthcare, education, and more, is stealing from our generation.

    Honorable Chair and Distinguished Delegates,

    We face a dual threat of nuclear war and the climate crisis. When states use these weapons, including in tests, the surrounding environment is bathed in high levels of radiation–degrading land and water, poisoning communities’ traditional food sources, and destroying entire ecosystems. While remediation efforts are essential, these efforts do not negate the harm caused to the lives of these communities and their environments. The effects of testing emphasize the need for everyone to remember that we can not have one more nuclear explosion. Not now, not ever.

    Let us be clear, as we make strides toward addressing climate change, leaving potential for nuclear war is a mistake that would undermine these efforts. We can only save the world if there is a world left to save.

    Honorable Chair and Distinguished Delegates,

    In light of the catastrophic humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons and the recent heightened risk of nuclear war, we must act. We urge all NPT States Parties to take the following five actions:

    1. Join the TPNW at the earliest date possible to fulfill your Article VI obligations and ensure global security, prevent humanitarian and environmental catastrophes, and promote international stability.
    2. Actively support, protect, and participate in the Middle East WMD Free Zone annual conferences, recognizing that disarmament in the Middle East has already begun, in full alignment with the 1995 Resolution that indefinitely extended the NPT.
    3. Center the voices of victims and survivors by committing to nuclear justice. This can be done by involving affected communities in all decision-making regarding environmental remediation and victims assistance, as well as supporting the International Trust Fund under the framework of the TPNW.
    4. Acknowledge the interconnected threats of nuclear weapons and climate change, and pursue disarmament as an essential part of fighting the climate crisis.
    5. Involve young people—especially women and other marginalized communities—in decision-making on nuclear disarmament to harness their perspectives, which are essential for a sustainable and equitable future. Thus, states must support youth campaigns like the UN ODA’s Not One Nuclear Explosion and include a 20% youth composition in Member States’ delegations and relevant working groups.

    We assert our right to shape the future we inherit and to create a just and sustainable world, free from the threat of nuclear weapons. We implore you to take immediate action and work with us to safeguard our shared humanity and the future of our planet.

    It is either the end of nuclear weapons, or the end of life as we know it. We demand that you stand with us, the inheritors of the world being created in this room today, and disarm.

    Thank you.

    [/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container][fusion_builder_container type=”flex” hundred_percent=”no” hundred_percent_height=”no” min_height_medium=”” min_height_small=”” min_height=”” hundred_percent_height_scroll=”no” align_content=”stretch” flex_align_items=”flex-start” flex_justify_content=”flex-start” flex_wrap_medium=”” flex_wrap_small=”” flex_wrap=”wrap” flex_column_spacing=”” hundred_percent_height_center_content=”yes” equal_height_columns=”no” container_tag=”div” menu_anchor=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” status=”published” publish_date=”” class=”” id=”” spacing_medium=”” margin_top_medium=”” margin_bottom_medium=”” spacing_small=”” margin_top_small=”” margin_bottom_small=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_dimensions_medium=”” padding_top_medium=”” padding_right_medium=”” padding_bottom_medium=”” padding_left_medium=”” padding_dimensions_small=”” padding_top_small=”” 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box_shadow=”no” dimension_box_shadow=”” box_shadow_blur=”0″ box_shadow_spread=”0″ box_shadow_color=”” box_shadow_style=”” z_index_hover=”” z_index=”” overflow=”” background_type=”single” background_color_medium=”” background_color_small=”” background_color_medium_hover=”” background_color_small_hover=”” background_color_hover=”” background_color=”” gradient_start_color=”” gradient_end_color=”” gradient_start_position=”0″ gradient_end_position=”100″ gradient_type=”linear” radial_direction=”center center” linear_angle=”180″ background_image_medium=”” background_image_small=”” background_image=”” background_image_id_medium=”” background_image_id_small=”” background_image_id=”” lazy_load=”none” skip_lazy_load=”” background_position_medium=”” background_position_small=”” background_position=”left top” background_repeat_medium=”” background_repeat_small=”” background_repeat=”no-repeat” background_size_medium=”” background_size_small=”” background_size=”” background_custom_size=”” background_custom_size_medium=”” background_custom_size_small=”” background_blend_mode_medium=”” background_blend_mode_small=”” background_blend_mode=”none” background_slider_images=”” background_slider_position=”” background_slider_skip_lazy_loading=”no” background_slider_loop=”yes” background_slider_pause_on_hover=”no” background_slider_slideshow_speed=”5000″ background_slider_animation=”fade” background_slider_direction=”up” background_slider_animation_speed=”800″ background_slider_blend_mode=”” render_logics=”” sticky=”off” sticky_devices=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_offset=”” absolute=”off” absolute_props=”” filter_type=”regular” filter_hover_element=”self” filter_hue=”0″ filter_saturation=”100″ filter_brightness=”100″ filter_contrast=”100″ filter_invert=”0″ filter_sepia=”0″ filter_opacity=”100″ filter_blur=”0″ filter_hue_hover=”0″ filter_saturation_hover=”100″ filter_brightness_hover=”100″ filter_contrast_hover=”100″ filter_invert_hover=”0″ filter_sepia_hover=”0″ filter_opacity_hover=”100″ filter_blur_hover=”0″ transform_type=”regular” transform_hover_element=”self” transform_scale_x=”1″ transform_scale_y=”1″ transform_translate_x=”0″ transform_translate_y=”0″ transform_rotate=”0″ transform_skew_x=”0″ transform_skew_y=”0″ transform_scale_x_hover=”1″ transform_scale_y_hover=”1″ transform_translate_x_hover=”0″ transform_translate_y_hover=”0″ transform_rotate_hover=”0″ transform_skew_x_hover=”0″ transform_skew_y_hover=”0″ transform_origin=”” transition_duration=”300″ transition_easing=”ease” transition_custom_easing=”” motion_effects=”” scroll_motion_devices=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_color=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_delay=”0″ animation_offset=”” last=”true” border_position=”all” first=”true”][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” hue=”” saturation=”” lightness=”” alpha=”” content_alignment_medium=”” content_alignment_small=”” content_alignment=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” margin_top=”” margin_right=”” margin_bottom=”” margin_left=”” fusion_font_family_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_text_font=”” font_size=”” line_height=”” letter_spacing=”” text_transform=”” text_color=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_color=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_delay=”0″ animation_offset=”” logics=””]

    Speakers:

    Bobby Verhey, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF)
    Pranathi Chintalapudi, Reverse the Trend: Save Our People, Save Our Planet (RTT)

    Endorsements (listed in alphabetical order):
    Association Katawara
    Bill Kidd MSP
    Disarmament Doves
    ICAN Australia
    International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War’s Medical Student Movement
    Marshallese Educational Initiative
    Nuclear Age Peace Foundation
    Proposition One Committee
    Reverse The Trend: Save Our People, Save Our Planet
    Soka Gakkai International
    Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom, U.S. Section World BEYOND War
    Yerdaulet Rakhmatulla
    Youth for TPNW
    Yuki Nakajima

    [/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

  • Honor the Victims of the Nuclear Age by Bringing It to an End

    Honor the Victims of the Nuclear Age by Bringing It to an End

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user_select=”” content_alignment_medium=”” content_alignment_small=”” content_alignment=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” margin_top=”” margin_right=”” margin_bottom=”” margin_left=”” fusion_font_family_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_text_font=”” font_size=”” line_height=”” letter_spacing=”” text_transform=”” text_color=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_color=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_delay=”0″ animation_offset=”” logics=””]

    On July 23, 2024, NAPF President, Dr. Ivana Nikolić Hughes, delivered a statement at the NGO session of the NPT Preparatory Committee to the 11th Review Conference. See below for the full video, the article published by Common Dreams, and the full text of the statement.

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    My name is Ivana Nikolić Hughes and I am speaking today on behalf of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

    Honorable Chair and Distinguished Delegates,

    The NPT States parties are meeting for a third year in a row in the shadow of the devastating war in Ukraine, which has taken hundreds of thousands of lives, destroyed key infrastructure in Ukraine and elsewhere, and turned friends and family members into enemies. In the past ten months, the attack on Israel and the war in Gaza have shattered all who have dared to confront the enormous civilian toll, the ongoing justifications of violations of international humanitarian law, and the divisiveness that the conflict has brought to environments from university campuses to the halls of the United Nations.

    The human suffering we witness on repeat is unfathomable, and yet, the fact that both of these conflicts involve – directly and indirectly – States that possess nuclear weapons is a stark reminder that things could be far worse. Whether deliberately, as has been threatened by Russian and Israeli politicians, or by accident, and especially if the current conflicts widen to regional wars, the use of nuclear weapons is a possibility that cannot be ruled out. This is so as long as nuclear weapons exist, and most especially as long as current policies not only allow but call for their instantaneous use to defend interests of nation States.

    Taking nuclear disarmament seriously is not only an existential imperative at this very moment, but an obligation of all States Parties to the NPT. The Nuclear-Weapon States, China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States, have a special responsibility. According to Article 6 of this treaty, they are mandated to negotiate in good faith towards nuclear disarmament, something that they have ostensibly not been doing. This must change.

    All other NPT States Parties must move away from threats of nuclear annihilation as a strategy for conducting international affairs. The stationing of US and Russian weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Türkiye in the case of the US and Belarus in the case of Russia must end imminently.  So must the so-called nuclear umbrella promise. Nuclear weapons don’t make anyone safer – they put all of us, all of humanity, and all of life on the planet at risk of extinction. To state that this is unacceptable is to state the obvious.

    What should be done?

    2045 will mark the 100th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, of the end of World War II, and of the founding of the United Nations. The Nuclear-Weapon States should use this and next year’s Preparatory Committee to chart a path that includes signing and ratifying the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in conjunction with the other four nuclear weapon possessors: India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan. Doing so by 2035 would allocate ten years to make history. Once all possessors have ratified the TPNW, all nuclear weapons should be eliminated by 2045.

    As we look towards a future in which nuclear weapons are abolished, eliminated, and no longer threaten to extinguish human civilization, we also must look to the past and present in order to address the suffering of communities that were impacted by nuclear weapons use and testing. The NPT States Parties can no longer pretend that the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were a necessary evil and sweep the nuclear testing era under a pile of rugs. The evidence of harm is all too real, and the scars are more than visible.

    In Algeria, the radioactive equipment from the French nuclear testing program remains buried in the Saharan sands. In the Marshall Islands, the food on the famous Bikini Island, after which the swimsuit was named, still brims with cesium-137 left over from US nuclear testing. On Kiritimati Island in Kiribati, the local population has yet to receive an acknowledgment and assistance for harms done by the UK and the US during their nuclear weapon testing programs. And in Kazakhstan, too many of the victims of the Soviet nuclear testing program need far more help than they have received so far. This is despite the earnest efforts of the Kazakhstan government, which has taken serious steps towards environmental remediation and victim assistance in the affected region. The stories go on and on and circle the globe.

    The States responsible for these heinous acts must begin by issuing an apology. Next, they should come together with the international community to right these historical wrongs and to promise never to commit such crimes ever again.

    Here too, the TPNW paves the way forward through its humanitarian provisions, spelled out in Articles 6 and 7. We furthermore call on all States, including the nine that abstained or voted last December against the resolution in the UN General Assembly to address the legacy of nuclear testing; the resolution provides an opportunity for a wide-reaching conversation about nuclear justice, which has been elusive for far too many and for far too long. Every state must come to the nuclear justice table.

    Honorable Chair,

    There is work to be done. Statements and gatherings must be followed by real action and by concrete and time-bound steps.

    We must honor the victims of the nuclear age by bringing about its end and by helping them earnestly and wholeheartedly. But beyond these tasks, we must recommit to the promise of the UN Charter where States address their differences through negotiations, engage in peaceful cooperation and competition, and reject all threats, including those of nuclear Armageddon, as not just an enormous risk to humanity, but as an insult to our humanity. We must be better than that.

    The work and ideas of Mozart, Gandhi, Mandela, Parks, Franklin, Allende, and so many others blaze the path forward. This path does not include nuclear weapons.

    Thank you, Mr. Chair.

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  • NAPF Statement to the NPT Preparatory Committee

    NAPF Statement to the NPT Preparatory Committee

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    On July 23, 2024, NAPF President, Dr. Ivana Nikolić Hughes, delivered a statement at the NGO session of the NPT Preparatory Committee to the 11th Review Conference. See below for the full video, the article published by Common Dreams, and the full text of the statement.

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    My name is Ivana Nikolić Hughes and I am speaking today on behalf of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

    Honorable Chair and Distinguished Delegates,

    The NPT States parties are meeting for a third year in a row in the shadow of the devastating war in Ukraine, which has taken hundreds of thousands of lives, destroyed key infrastructure in Ukraine and elsewhere, and turned friends and family members into enemies. In the past ten months, the attack on Israel and the war in Gaza have shattered all who have dared to confront the enormous civilian toll, the ongoing justifications of violations of international humanitarian law, and the divisiveness that the conflict has brought to environments from university campuses to the halls of the United Nations.

    The human suffering we witness on repeat is unfathomable, and yet, the fact that both of these conflicts involve – directly and indirectly – States that possess nuclear weapons is a stark reminder that things could be far worse. Whether deliberately, as has been threatened by Russian and Israeli politicians, or by accident, and especially if the current conflicts widen to regional wars, the use of nuclear weapons is a possibility that cannot be ruled out. This is so as long as nuclear weapons exist, and most especially as long as current policies not only allow but call for their instantaneous use to defend interests of nation States.

    Taking nuclear disarmament seriously is not only an existential imperative at this very moment, but an obligation of all States Parties to the NPT. The Nuclear-Weapon States, China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States, have a special responsibility. According to Article 6 of this treaty, they are mandated to negotiate in good faith towards nuclear disarmament, something that they have ostensibly not been doing. This must change.

    All other NPT States Parties must move away from threats of nuclear annihilation as a strategy for conducting international affairs. The stationing of US and Russian weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Türkiye in the case of the US and Belarus in the case of Russia must end imminently.  So must the so-called nuclear umbrella promise. Nuclear weapons don’t make anyone safer – they put all of us, all of humanity, and all of life on the planet at risk of extinction. To state that this is unacceptable is to state the obvious.

    What should be done?

    2045 will mark the 100th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, of the end of World War II, and of the founding of the United Nations. The Nuclear-Weapon States should use this and next year’s Preparatory Committee to chart a path that includes signing and ratifying the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in conjunction with the other four nuclear weapon possessors: India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan. Doing so by 2035 would allocate ten years to make history. Once all possessors have ratified the TPNW, all nuclear weapons should be eliminated by 2045.

    As we look towards a future in which nuclear weapons are abolished, eliminated, and no longer threaten to extinguish human civilization, we also must look to the past and present in order to address the suffering of communities that were impacted by nuclear weapons use and testing. The NPT States Parties can no longer pretend that the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were a necessary evil and sweep the nuclear testing era under a pile of rugs. The evidence of harm is all too real, and the scars are more than visible.

    In Algeria, the radioactive equipment from the French nuclear testing program remains buried in the Saharan sands. In the Marshall Islands, the food on the famous Bikini Island, after which the swimsuit was named, still brims with cesium-137 left over from US nuclear testing. On Kiritimati Island in Kiribati, the local population has yet to receive an acknowledgment and assistance for harms done by the UK and the US during their nuclear weapon testing programs. And in Kazakhstan, too many of the victims of the Soviet nuclear testing program need far more help than they have received so far. This is despite the earnest efforts of the Kazakhstan government, which has taken serious steps towards environmental remediation and victim assistance in the affected region. The stories go on and on and circle the globe.

    The States responsible for these heinous acts must begin by issuing an apology. Next, they should come together with the international community to right these historical wrongs and to promise never to commit such crimes ever again.

    Here too, the TPNW paves the way forward through its humanitarian provisions, spelled out in Articles 6 and 7. We furthermore call on all States, including the nine that abstained or voted last December against the resolution in the UN General Assembly to address the legacy of nuclear testing; the resolution provides an opportunity for a wide-reaching conversation about nuclear justice, which has been elusive for far too many and for far too long. Every state must come to the nuclear justice table.

    Honorable Chair,

    There is work to be done. Statements and gatherings must be followed by real action and by concrete and time-bound steps.

    We must honor the victims of the nuclear age by bringing about its end and by helping them earnestly and wholeheartedly. But beyond these tasks, we must recommit to the promise of the UN Charter where States address their differences through negotiations, engage in peaceful cooperation and competition, and reject all threats, including those of nuclear Armageddon, as not just an enormous risk to humanity, but as an insult to our humanity. We must be better than that.

    The work and ideas of Mozart, Gandhi, Mandela, Parks, Franklin, Allende, and so many others blaze the path forward. This path does not include nuclear weapons.

    Thank you, Mr. Chair.

    [/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

  • Watch: NUCLEAR DANGERS: Ukraine War, the Third Year

    Watch: NUCLEAR DANGERS: Ukraine War, the Third Year

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    The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation held a virtual event to discuss the third year of the Ukraine War and the nuclear dangers associated with this conflict. The event featured Professor Grigory Yavlinsky, a Russian economist and politician who ran for the Presidency of Russia three times. Yavlinsky was joined by Katrina vanden Heuvel, publisher of The Nation, and Richard Falk, Professor Emeritus of International Law at Princeton University. Cynthia Lazaroff, an expert on US-Russian relations moderated. Grigory Yavlinsky’s comments in Russian were translated into English.

    Please see below for full event recording.

    [/fusion_text][fusion_separator style_type=”none” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” flex_grow=”3″ top_margin=”30px” bottom_margin=”” width=”” height=”20″ alignment=”center” border_size=”” weight=”” amount=”” sep_color=”” hue=”” saturation=”” lightness=”” alpha=”” icon=”” icon_size=”” icon_color=”” icon_circle=”” icon_circle_color=”” /][fusion_youtube id=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3bj68KVRTY” alignment=”center” width=”” height=”” autoplay=”false” mute=”false” api_params=”” title_attribute=”” video_facade=”” thumbnail_size=”auto” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” css_id=”” structured_data=”off” video_upload_date=”” video_duration=”” video_title=”” video_desc=”” /][fusion_separator style_type=”none” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” flex_grow=”3″ top_margin=”30px” bottom_margin=”” width=”” height=”20″ alignment=”center” border_size=”” weight=”” amount=”” sep_color=”” hue=”” saturation=”” lightness=”” alpha=”” icon=”” icon_size=”” icon_color=”” icon_circle=”” icon_circle_color=”” /][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” hue=”” saturation=”” lightness=”” alpha=”” content_alignment_medium=”” content_alignment_small=”” content_alignment=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” margin_top=”” margin_right=”” margin_bottom=”” margin_left=”” fusion_font_family_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_text_font=”” font_size=”” line_height=”” letter_spacing=”” text_transform=”” text_color=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_color=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_delay=”0″ animation_offset=”” logics=””]

    Grigory Yavlinsky is a Russian economist and politician. He held senior positions in the governments of the USSR and Russia, and was a member of the Russian parliament for ten years. Yavlinsky is the initiator and author of “The 500 Days” program of market economic reforms, he is a leader of the opposition democratic party “Yabloko”. He ran for president of Russia: in 1996 against Boris Yeltsin, took fourth place and in 2000 against Vladimir Putin took third place.  Yavlinsky is a principled opponent of Putin. Yavlinsky is a Doctor of Economics (Central Economic and Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences), Professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    Katrina vanden Heuvel, esteemed journalist and commentator, is the editorial director and publisher of The Nation, one of the oldest progressive magazines in the United States. With her incisive analysis and bold perspectives, she has been a leading voice in American journalism for decades, challenging the status quo and advocating for progressive causes. Vanden Heuvel’s commitment to social justice and political activism has shaped The Nation into a platform for dissenting voices and marginalized perspectives. Her influence extends beyond the pages of the magazine; she is a frequent commentator on television and radio, offering insightful commentary on current events and political developments.

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    Richard Falk is a Professor Emeritus of International Law at Princeton University, and the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor’s Chairman of the Board of Trustees. In 2008, the United Nations Human Rights Council appointed him to a six-year term as a UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967. His book, This Endangered Planet: Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival (1971), was selected as one of only three Books for the Century (Political and Legal) in the centennial issue of the magazine, Foreign Affairs. His book is also part of a set considered “essential for understanding the century ahead.” Falk’s memoir, Public Intellectual: The Life of a Citizen Pilgrim, was published in 2021.

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    Cynthia Lazaroff is the founder of Women Transforming Our Nuclear Legacy and NuclearWakeUpCall.Earth. She is an award-winning documentary filmmaker and author of Dawn of a New Armageddon, a personal account of the Hawaii missile scare amidst escalating nuclear dangers, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on Hiroshima Day.  Cynthia has been engaged in Track II citizen diplomacy efforts with Russia and has founded groundbreaking U.S.-Russian exchange initiatives since the early 1980s. She is dedicated to catalyzing efforts in U.S.-Russia relations to reduce the nuclear risk and to working with people in Russia and all countries to move towards a world without nuclear weapons. In 2022, Cynthia received the Women Waging Peace Award from the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation where she currently serves on the board.

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