Category: Nuclear Threat

  • The State of the Nuclear Danger by Hans Kristensen

    This is the transcript of a talk given by Hans Kristensen at the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation’s symposium “The Fierce Urgency of Nuclear Zero: Changing the Discourse” on October 24, 2016. The audio of this talk is available here. A link to Kristensen’s PowerPoint presentation that accompanied this talk is here. For more information about the symposium, click here.

    kristensen

    Thanks very much for the invitation to come all the way out here. I managed to see two oceans in one day, so that’s pretty good. And I’ve been asked to talk about the state of affairs, so to speak, in the nine nuclear weapons countries, which is impossible in 15 minutes. [chuckle] So a lot of this is information overkill, of course, but the point of it is so that the slides and the information is available for you later on if you want to go online and look at it. So some of them I’ll just jump very quickly across them. But basically what I want to capture in this one is to give you an impression of three major themes, three major issues, the state of affair with the effort to reduce nuclear weapons, what has been accomplished and what does the trend look like for the next decade or so. And then look at the modernization programs that are around the world and the nuclear operations that we’re seeing changing very significantly right now, as a matter of fact.

    Somebody said that today was the anniversary of the UN Charter, I think it was. And today, as we speak, is also the beginning of US Strategic Command’s Global Thunder Nuclear Strike exercise that is beginning today. The B52s are taking off, the ICBMs are exercising and the ballistic missiles submarines. So we’ll see what comes out. But this is sort of a good reminder that there are two pieces here that are competing, and right now this one will be in focus for sure for the next week or 10 days.

    So I want to begin with a reminder. John very kindly reminded us of the hope, which I think is relevant and it’s also important when you look at the development of nuclear forces over the last several decades, we’ve had enormous progress compared to the arsenals that were during the Cold War. That’s of course if you’re interested in numbers. If you’re looking for this sort of final outcome, it’s a little more murky, but both in terms of overall numbers, in terms of categories of those weapon systems and what they were intended to do has changed significantly. In the United States, for example, the US has done away with all of its non-strategic nuclear weapons, except a few hundred that are for the tactical fighter aircraft. That means all army weapons, artillery, short-range missiles, all navy weapons, anti-submarine, anti-air, land attack, cruise missile, gone and destroyed. A huge development, these weapon systems used to sail around the world, rubbing up against other nuclear navies on the world oceans, sailing into countries’ ports whether they had non-nuclear policies or not, what have you.

    So, that is an amazing development in my view. Where we are now, what should capture your imagination, of course, is the bottom chart there, the enormous difference in the perception between the United States and Russia. How many nuclear weapons they think they need for security, versus everyone else. There’s no country on the planet who thinks they need more than a few hundred nuclear weapons for sort of basic nuclear deterrence missions. So the rest is very much a leftover of what we saw during the Cold War, the mindsets, the strategies, the inertia from the different agencies, it’s very hard to get them out of this nuclear business, and the politicians from the states where they produce some of these systems, of course.

    But if you look at just the United States and Russia, I’m going to focus on just the United States and Russia in this one, not just because they’re the biggest, but also because of the way things are developing right now, they are some of the most important, I think, trends in terms of what can influence the future of nuclear weapons globally. The most important part is that the pace of reductions has slowed down significantly, compared to two decades, one decade ago. We saw some very dramatic changes. And now it is as if the nuclear powers are not heading toward zero, they’re sort of hedging toward the indefinite future and thinking about what should their position be in the world of powers, decades from now. So that means that this development toward zero has really slowed down, and it is likely to stay very modest in the future years. The new START Treaty is the only existing treaty that has any effect on nuclear forces right now, and that treaty is so modest in terms of reductions and perhaps, more important, of the treaty is the verification regime that’s associated where the countries go on and inspect each other’s bases and what have you.

    But we are in a very problematic trend here, I think, because you can see the United States is reducing its number of deployed strategic warheads, and the Russians have started to increase their strategic nuclear warheads. And so, there are no limits under the treaty until 2018, so no one is in violation of the treaty now. [chuckle] At that day, February 2018, that’s when they have to meet the limit. And we’re talking only a few hundred warheads, so this is just about adjusting what is on the forces, this will not require any significant adjustment of the nuclear posture. So this is a very modest treaty. It looks bad, but I think you should also look at this statement from the US Department of Defense from 2012, which said that, even if Russia breaks out of the new START Treaty with significantly more nuclear warheads deployed, they would not be able to have an effect on the strategic stability, the thinking that goes into strategic stability seen from the US perspective.

    So the US is not very interested anymore in exact parity. That’s not what it’s about. It’s about what you can do with the forces you have. And Obama, of course, came in with a lot of promise or expectations, hope about reductions and fundamental change. He had a phrase that was, “To put an end to Cold War thinking.” That was the key in the Prague speech. And that is probably the one thing they certainly have not done, because if you look at how… The blue line is the fluctuation in the US stockpile. How many weapons have entered the stockpile? How many have left the stockpile over the years? So you can see the activity in and out of the stockpile here.

    And so what you should note, of course, is the enormous build up in this area. Eisenhower added over 11,000, I think it’s even higher, I think it’s 17,000 weapons to the stockpile. It’s mad. And then it slowed down and there were even some that were removed, but it was zig-zagging here until the end of the Cold War, when we saw these enormous reductions here, and later, the Bush administration. But Obama has been very modest, very little effect. He has taken about 700 nuclear weapons out of the stockpile. And that’s, of course, a lot, it’s more than most nuclear weapons states in the world, but out of this arsenal of 5,000, it’s much more modest. And so he has actually come out being the president that has reduced the US nuclear stockpile the least of any post-Cold War president.

    Now, we hear again and again that the United States has not been doing anything on its nuclear weapons, that we’ve had a “procurement holiday,” as they call it. And people used to argue that so that they can make the case, that now we need some money to modernize. But this of course ignores completely the modernizations that have happened for the last two decades. These may not have been entirely new weapons systems that came in. We have changed the way we go about things in the United States, so we instead spend more energy on extending the life of the existing systems, extending the life of existing nuclear warheads, etcetera. But we’ve had some significant ones in that period. The ballistic missile submarine fleet came in, the Trident II missile was introduced also out in the Pacific Fleet. We’ve had an entire upgrade of the Minuteman III force, the B-2 bombers came in in that period as well. Numerous different warheads were introduced, life extension programs, command and control, and now, we have B61-12, the next guy, the nuclear bomb that is being worked on. So this has been quite a busy holiday. [chuckle]

    But that’s just to say, the United States doesn’t go about its nuclear modernization in the same way that Russia or China go about their nuclear modernizations, nor do the cycles happen at the same time. So it’s completely off the mark to look out the window and say, “They’re modernizing, we’re not. So therefore, we must be behind.” Our modernization came in the 1980s and early 90s. The Russians’ came in in the late 1990s and in the 2000s, so they’re in the middle of their modernization cycle. And then it’ll go like that. It doesn’t happen at the same time. But it’s very important to not begin to spin modernization programs any which way you want it. But the Russian modernization program is across the board. They’re in the middle of it, mainly phasing out Soviet-era systems and replacing them with new ones. So we see ICBMs coming in, mobiles, as well as silos, we see new submarines, we see them working on first an extension of the production line for the black jet bomber, but they’re also working on a new bomber. We see a broad range of modernizations effort in the non-strategic as well, non-strategic forces like the Iskander, for example, that gets a lot of headlines right now, but also attack submarines like the Yasen-class with land attack cruise missile capability.

    For the United States, the same story. Across-the-board modernization that includes both ICBM subs, bombers as well as tactical weapon systems and the infrastructure, the factories to produce these things. And over the next decade, they are thinking in the order of $340 billion to be spent on this enterprise and we’ve heard, of course, $3 trillion, no, $1 trillion for the next 30 years, I think that’s the word. And there’s also some of that modernization that has effects for NATO, and this has to do with the B61 bomb that is deployed in Europe, part of the arsenal, integrated onto US bombers over there but also allied bombers. Yes, the United States provides nuclear weapons to allies’ bombers so that in a case of war, they would deliver our nuclear weapons, very controversial arrangement. There’s a whole story to that. We can go back to that later, whatever.

    But right now, it’s the B61-12 that is the focus of this effort. This will come, take all the gravity bombs that are currently in the US arsenal and build those capabilities into one weapons system. Right now, they have numerous versions of the B61, as well as a very high yield B83 bomb. The effects, the military effects of those capabilities will be concentrated into one weapons system, that’s the B61-12. The new about this is that it has a tail kit that guides it to its target so it can hit it more accurately. Thereby, they can use a warhead with a much lower maximum yield to get the same effects that today require hundreds of kilotons in yield. So that’s a way of making a nuclear weapon much more efficient. But of course, that also means that you suddenly have all the weapons systems, so to speak, everywhere, instead of in certain bases or only for certain types of aircraft, now it’s gonna be available across the force.

    China, very quickly, they’re in the middle of a modernization, shifting to more mobile systems, more capable ICBMs, including now beginning to put multiple warheads on their ICBMs. They’re building new bombers that may have nuclear cruise missile capability. It’s not quite clear. A ballistic submarine fleet and some ground launch cruise missiles that are being identified as possibly nuclear. France, a similar situation. They’re in the middle of a modernization of their force. They’ve just finished introducing this cruise missile on their bombers. They have a new version of their ballistic missile submarines that’s been introduced into the navy. And they’re putting new kinds of warheads on them.

    Britain has just decided to go ahead with replacement of its ballistic missile submarine fleet. So we will see that. They’re using a modified version of the American W86 warhead on their system. Of course, if you ask the Brits it’s not true, they say it’s their own system, but it is a version of it that is similar to it but with some modifications. They are using the US re-entry body, the new re-entry body that the US has just flushed into its fleet that has a special fuse on it that enables this warhead to significantly increase the kill capability of hard targets. So this is happening both in the British fleet, but also in the US fleet.

    Pakistan: Full speed ahead. Short range, medium range, cruise missiles, infrastructure, plutonium production facilities, reactors coming in, air launch, ground launch, cruise missiles, a very dynamic program, including very short range system. This one has a range of only 60 kilometers. Specifically designed to be used before strategic nuclear weapons are used. So this is an opening front in the Pakistani-India relationship that is very worrisome, and designed specifically to be used against Indian conventional forces invading Pakistan.

    India: Looking more toward China, but certainly keeping its eye on Pakistan, but developing a longer range system that will be able to cover all of China. It’ll begin to deploy them in canisters on the road, instead of these sort of open transport modes, so they’ll be much more resilient and flexible and can be used actually also quicker in a quicker respond. Their first ballistic missile submarine has just been handed over to the navy and we will see that beginning to go at some point over the next couple of years, out on actual patrols with nuclear weapons. They also have various other systems, but that’s sort of the focus of their nuclear posture development.

    Israel: The same situation, with land-based ballistic missiles and bombers with gravity bombs. There might be a nuclear cruise missile capability on their submarines. There have been lot of rumors about it. It’s a little foggy still, but that’s the sort of the overall trend here. The most important part then is this combination, as well as a longer range version of the Jericho ballistic missile. We hear numbers of Israeli arsenals, 200, 300, some people even say 400 nuclear weapons. I think they’re vastly exaggerated. I think the Israeli arsenal is probably closer to sort of 80 to 100 warheads, or something like that. They don’t have a war fighting type of nuclear arsenals. I don’t really think what they would do with all those weapons.

    And of course, North Korea: Full speed ahead. You name it, they’ll come up with some system some way or another. They’re working on a submarine, land-based mobile ICBMs, fixed ICBMs, they’re trying to get that in. There have been rumors of some cruise missile capability, but there are many rumors about North Korea. And right now, despite five underground nuclear tests, it’s still not entirely clear that they have managed to weaponize these weapons so that they can be delivered with a ballistic missile. We still need to see more of those kind of tests where they’re testing vehicles that are actually intended to deliver the warhead. So there is a process there, but they’re certainly on their way, no doubt about it.

    And finally, operations. We’ve seen some significant changes over the last four, five years, in the way that Russia and the United States are operating their nuclear forces. Part of the picture is that these nuclear forces are dual capable. So, sometimes, they may be intended as conventional operations, but they also send a nuclear message. And we’ve seen that again and again, when information, for example, about the Iskander system going to Kaliningrad, is being really highlighted in the news media and the public reactions, as a nuclear system going in. But the primary mission, of course, is conventional. But it has nuclear capability, we believe. We’ve seen some significant operations in the Baltic and North Sea area, including apparently, a simulated nuclear strike in 2013 against Sweden, with Backfire bombers.

    We also have other naval nuclear weapons. Russia has a much broader nuclear weapons arsenal, in terms of types, both for the navy, the air defense system, the air force and the ground forces. And they seem to be holding on to that capability. On the US side, we have seen new deployments of nuclear-capable fighter squadrons to both the Baltic states, to Poland, and even to Sweden, a place where we did not see those type of deployments 10 years ago. We see now, a periodic forward deployments of long-range nuclear bombers to Europe, to operate for several weeks from a base, and flying around and do exercises deep, deep into the Baltic Sea, and over-flying the Baltic states, just a few tens of miles from the Russian border. We are beginning to see now, again, ballistic missile submarines conducting port visits in Europe, to signal that Europe is backed by the American ballistic missile submarine strike force.

    So a very significant development. And very recently, just the last couple of years, we’ve seen some completely new developments in the bomber force operations. It started in 2015, with this one that was called Polar Growl, an exercise that sent four nuclear-capable bombers on missions up over the North Pole. They went all the way to their launch point for the cruise missiles, as well as into the North Sea, and these are just hypothetical strike patterns for each bomber, carrying 20 air launch, long-range cruise missiles. 80 cruise missiles is a significant force just for eight bombers. This year we saw a repetition of this, looking a little different, but the same central theme. A couple of bombers flying up over the North Pole, going just along the Russian coast, outside that territory, of course, and this one, going over the North Sea, and all the way into the Baltic Sea, and doing exercises up, along and down the coast of the Baltic states.

    And in the Pacific, we saw the B2 bombers going up, going down toward the Kamchatka Peninsula, which is where the Russian Pacific submarine fleet is based. STRATCOM said they have not done this type of an exercise since 1987. So, we’re now back… European Command has forged what they call a new link with STRATCOM, for assurance and deterrence missions. And that is a description from a chapter in their posture statement that deals with the nuclear forces, so this is nuclear messaging. And so this raises the question. What’s the plan? Does anybody know about the next step? I can’t imagine next year’s exercise, will probably have to be a little bigger and do something a little extra, because otherwise, we’re slacking. We’re messaging here, right? So, this is a worrisome step, where we’re beginning to take, and the Russians are beginning to take the step further up the escalation ladder. Yes.

    [Were those planes carrying nuclear weapons at the time?]

    No. The planes are not carrying nuclear weapons. In fact, US bombers do not carry nuclear weapons anywhere. They are loading nuclear capable systems, but without the warheads for exercises. But we’ve seen in 2007, obviously, that mistakes can happen. That was when six cruise missiles were flown across the United States, because the security system broke down. But on these exercises, no. But what we’re beginning to see is that these are nuclear-capable bombers that are going to missions. We’re also beginning to see conventional long-range strike bombers going on these missions. And when they’re doing these exercises, they’re loading onto the bomber force both nuclear and conventional long-strike cruise missiles. So this is an integration of conventional nuclear, in the strategic mission in support of both Europe and Asia. Yes?

    [In Russian exercises, do we know whether they refrain from using nuclear weapons? From flying their nuclear weapons with their bombers?]

    Know, is a strong word. I would say, we suspect that they don’t. Even in the Russian military, it’s just a lot of trouble if you have an accident. And why do it if you don’t have to. But they do simulate it. Absolutely. They simulate both the loading process and all the procedures when they fly, and the launch procedures, etcetera, etcetera.

    [But we can’t tell?]

    Exactly. We can’t tell if that plane really has something on board, unless we have some really good intelligence. So, that’s sort of, everybody’s doing it and everybody’s doing more of it and this is the concern right now.

    [Since we don’t know if the Russian planes, for example, are carrying nuclear weapons, doesn’t it make it more dangerous in a period of crisis?]

    Exactly, and there was a debate a few years ago about whether the United States should add conventional warheads to its submarines’ ballistic fleet. And there was a heavy opposition in the US Congress against it, specifically to try to keep a red line between nuclear and conventional. You would have had conventional and nuclear on the same submarine, and so they said, “Nah, let’s not do that.” [chuckle] But on the bombers, that’s part of the standard posture. You can have conventional. You can have JASSM cruise missiles. You can have air launch cruise missiles. Now they’re building, working on building a new long-range nuclear cruise missile, it’s called the LRSO, so far. That’s going to come into the force in the mid, late 20s. That’s going to replace the ALCM. This is part of this overall repetition of the current nuclear posture through the modernization.

  • Assessing the Alarming Lack of Progress by Jackie Cabasso

    This is the transcript of a talk given by Jackie Cabasso at the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation’s symposium “The Fierce Urgency of Nuclear Zero: Changing the Discourse” on October 24, 2016. The audio of this talk is available here. For more information about the symposium, click here.

    cabasso

    It’s really a great honor and a little bit daunting to be on the podium here with Professor Chomsky, but he seems a pretty down-to-earth guy. [laughter] I’m going to try to limit my remarks to the allotted time, there’s a great deal to say on this topic. When I looked at my email this morning, I saw two subject lines one after the other. “Top British General warns of nuclear war with Russia, ‘the end of life as we know it’” immediately followed by, “The week the world agreed to make nuclear weapons illegal.” I think that this kind of sums at where we’re at, but it also underlines the point that with the internet and social media that we have available to us today, we’re operating in a blizzard of propaganda, probably unprecedented, that makes our work even harder, because we don’t know who to believe or what to believe. And this makes the imperative for critical thinking even more important. I believe that we need to think much more deeply and systematically about the causes of our existential predicament, which are the same as the causes of climate change, wars, unprecedented economic disparities resulting in a plethora of social ills, and we need to make strategic organizing and advocacy choices based on this analysis.

    This will also help build a movement of movements that we will need to prevail on nuclear disarmament and many other pressing issues, the popular movement to that Noam was just talking about. I believe that nuclear weapons are not a single issue and cannot be understood as such. Nuclear weapons are ultimate instruments of power, power projection, militarism and war; they are the currency of global domination. There’s an inextricable link between nuclear and conventional weapons also, especially in light of today’s high-tech arms racing. Nuclear weapons cannot simply be plucked out of this equation. I believe that nuclear disarmament will not be possible unless accompanied by significant demilitarization and general disarmament, which is sometimes called strategic stability, and I’ll talk more about that.

    At the height of the Cold War and the height of the anti-nuclear movement in 1982, as I was being arrested non-violently blocking the gates to the Livermore nuclear weapons lab, along with Dan Ellsberg and several thousand other people, I could not have dreamed that less than 10 years later the Soviet Union would disappear overnight and the Cold War would end. Like many others I think in such unlikely event I would have predicted that nuclear disarmament would quickly follow, but we were wrong. We didn’t understand the forces that were driving the nuclear arms race, and I’m not sure that we do now. When assessing the alarming lack of progress on nuclear disarmament, we sometimes forget the fundamentals haven’t really changed since the beginning of the nuclear age, and certainly not since the end of World War II.

    In appealing to the 1982 United Nations Second Special on Disarmament the Hiroshima Mayor, Takashi Araki, said, “Hiroshima is not merely a witness of history, Hiroshima is an endless warning for the future of humankind. If Hiroshima is ever forgotten it is evident that the mistake will be repeated and bring human history to an end.” When the Cold War ended, it was almost as if the planet itself breathed a huge sigh of relief. People around the world hoped and believed that they had escaped the nuclear holocaust and largely put nuclear weapons out of their minds. During the 1980s, fear of nuclear war was by far the most visible issue of concern to the American public. Yet following the end of the Cold War, nuclear weapons and especially US nuclear weapons, fell off the public’s radar screen. Nuclear arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament became increasingly isolated issues, experts in Washington DC redefined post-Cold War nuclear priorities almost solely in terms of securing Russian loose nukes and keeping nuclear materials out of the hands of rogue states and terrorists.

    Meanwhile, deeply embedded in the military industrial complex, Pentagon planners and scientists at the nuclear weapons labs conjured up new justifications to sustain the nuclear weapons enterprise. Following the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Colin Powell, then Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared, “You’ve got to step aside from the context we’re been using for the past 40 years, that you base military planning against a specific threat. We no longer have the luxury of having a threat to plan for, what we planned for is that we’re a super power. We are the major player on the world’s stage with responsibilities and interests around the world.” And this sounds a lot like some of Ashton Carter’s recent rhetoric.

    When looking back over things that I’ve written in the past, I found many similar themes recurring that I’d actually forgotten about, because things keep moving so fast. How many people remember Presidential Decision Directive 60 that was issued by President Clinton in 1997, nearly 10 years after the Cold War ended? This Presidential Directive reaffirmed the threatened first use of nuclear weapons as the cornerstone of US national security, and contemplated an expanding role for nuclear weapons to deter not only nuclear, but also chemical and biological weapons. The Bush doctrine of preventive war was a continuation and an expansion of programs and policies carried out by every US administration, Democrat and Republican, since President Harry Truman, a Democrat, authorized the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

    You may remember the 2002 Nuclear Posture Review, which I also had sort of put out of my mind. It stated that “nuclear attack options that vary in scale, scope and purpose will contemplate other military capabilities”. And it did something very important that described the transition to a new strategic triad, which provides an understanding of how the US planned to, and in fact is planning to carry out its global war-fighting strategy. In one corner of the new triad, the old strategic triad, the nuclear triad, consisting of submarine-based ballistic missiles, land-based based intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers was moved up to one corner and combined with conventional high tech weaponry. This category was named Offensive Strike Systems.

    The other legs of the new triad were defenses and a revitalized defense infrastructure that will provide new capabilities in a timely fashion to meet emerging threats. This was a super-sized infrastructure to serve as both the nuclear and the conventional weapon systems, the warheads and the delivery systems. And these were all bound together by enhanced command and control and intelligent systems. And these three legs of the new strategic triad were designed and are designed to work together to enable the United States project overwhelming military force. And in this context you can understand that, so-called defenses actually work like shields with the swords of offensive weapons, and protect the US forward deployments and freedom of action around the world. In particular, the missile defense systems, which we’re hearing a little bit about now as provocations to Russia and China, or as perceived provocations to Russia and China, were describe by Admiral Ramdas, the former head of India’s Navy, who’s describe US theater missile defenses as “a net thrown over the globe”.

    Now, in 2010, the Obama Nuclear Posture Review was released, exactly one year and one day after the Prague speech. And despite hopes for dramatic change, of course, this Nuclear Posture Review revealed no substantial changes in US nuclear force structure, maintained all three legs of the strategic triad, only marginally reduced the role of nuclear weapons in US national security policy, stating, “These nuclear forces will continue to play an essential role in deterring potential adversaries and reassuring allies and partners around the world”. The NPR explicitly rejected reducing the high alert status of intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic submarines, concluding that, “The current alert posture of US strategic forces with heavy bombers off full-time alert, nearly all ICBMs on alert and a significant number of sea-launched ballistic missiles at sea at any given time should be maintained for the present”.

    It also reaffirmed the policy of extended deterrence and retains the capability to forward deploy US nuclear weapons on tactical fighter bombers and heavy bombers, including at NATO bases in Europe, while proceeding with the modification of the B61 bomb carried on those planes. That was before the 2011 turnaround that Professor Chomsky talked about. I don’t have time to really go into it, but I want to talk about in greater specificity about the linkage between nuclear and high tech conventional offensive and defensive weapons, again, this concept called strategic stability.

    Okay, I’ll move quickly. The US government as, I think everyone here knows, is officially committed to modernizing its nuclear bombs and warheads, delivery systems, the laboratories and plants that design and maintain them, and US policy and budget documents for many years now manifest an intent to keep thousands of US nuclear weapons in active service for the foreseeable future, and the capacity to bring stored weapons into service, and to design and manufacture new weapons should they be desired. Russia’s nuclear weapons programs and policies closely mirror those of the US, and are also reflected in the other nuclear weapons possessing states. But perhaps and even more dangerous than nuclear warhead modifications are upgrades for delivery systems for conventional weapons.

    In 2008, General Kevin Chilton, head of the US Strategic Command, declared, “We have a Prompt Global Strike delivery capability on alert today, but is configured only with nuclear weapons, which limits the options available to the President and may in some cases reduce the credibility of our deterrents.” And along these lines the Pentagon began development of a new generation of long-range delivery systems, capable of carrying conventional warheads. The US is hoping to take advantage of continuing advances in space technologies and improvements in guidance technologies to place non-nuclear as well nuclear payloads on long-range missiles. The goal is to achieve “Prompt Global Strike, the ability to hit targets anywhere on earth in an hour or else and to hit them accurately enough so that non-nuclear payloads can destroy the target”. This is one of many ways in which the distinction between nuclear and conventional weapons has been blurred.

    In addition, the US is researching new kinds of weapons, including gliding, maneuvering reentry vehicles that could carry a variety of weapons and hypersonic weapons, intended to attack targets many times faster than the speed of sound, before a defender could react. Russia actually is believed to be testing these as a possible way to attack missile defense systems. Tests of hypersonic vehicles that are part of this research and development effort have been conducted in recent years at Vandenberg Air Force Base, not so far from here, where the US Air Force routinely conducts tests of unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles. The possibility that Prompt Global Strike Program might succeed, although there are many technical obstacles, impedes nuclear disarmament efforts and is helping to accelerate a new round of arms racing.

    Russian security analysts have been raising concerns for years that these conventional US alternatives to nuclear weapons might pose an obstacle to US/Russian nuclear arms control negotiations. In 2009, Alexei Arbatov at the Carnegie Moscow Center observed, “There are very few countries that are afraid of American nuclear weapons. But there are many countries which are afraid of American conventional weapons. In particular, nuclear weapon states like China and Russia are primarily concerned about growing American conventional, precision-guided long-range capability.” Paradoxically, Robert Einhorn, a special advisor for non-proliferation and arms control to then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, remarked in 2007, “We should be putting far more effort into developing more effective conventional weapons. It’s hard to imagine a president using nuclear weapons in almost any circumstance, but no one doubts our willingness to use conventional weapons.” And this statement, unfortunately, is all too true. In 2015, the US spent almost $600 billion on its military, more than twice as much as China and Russia combined, and more than one third of the world’s countries combined.

    An even more overpowering conventional US military threat surely is not the desired outcome of the nuclear disarmament process. How will potential adversaries with fewer economic resources respond? Won’t they have an incentive to maintain or acquire nuclear weapons to counter US conventional superiority? And won’t that in turn entrench US determination to retain and modernize its own nuclear arsenal, thus rendering the goal of nuclear disarmament nearly impossible? This conundrum poses one of the biggest challenges to the elimination of nuclear weapons.

    I wanted to actually just talk about the political machinations around the START II Treaty and the ratification process, because it’s an example of how nuclear disarmament treaties have been turned on their heads and actually have become anti-disarmament treaties. This was true with the comprehensive test ban process. But the political conditions attached to Senate ratification in the US, and mirrored by Russia, effectively did turn START into an anti-disarmament measure. And this was stated in so many words by Senator Bob Corker, a Republican Senator from Tennessee whose state is home to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, site of the proposed multi-billion dollar uranium processing facility.

    He said, “I am proud that as result of ratification we have been successful in securing commitments from the administration on modernization of our nuclear arsenal and support of our missile defense programs, two things that would not have happened otherwise. In fact, thanks in part to the contributions of my staff and I have been able to make, the new START Treaty could easily be called, ‘The Nuclear Modernization and Missile Defense Act of 2010′”. And one of the problems that we face as anti-nuclear advocates is that this critique was kept out of the debate in Washington by the arms control groups who were trying to be realistic. So we’ve seen what the outcome of that has been. Those conditions, by the way, were essentially mirrored by the Russian Duma. And in my personal opinion, we’re worse off with that treaty, because of the process then we would be if it hadn’t happened in the first place.

    So in conclusion, the concept of security, I think, needs to be re-framed and redefined at every level of society and government, with a premium on universal, human and ecological security, a return to multilateralism, and a commitment to cooperative, non-violent means of conflict resolution. Nuclear disarmament should serve as the leading edge of a global trend towards general and complete disarmament, and redirection of military expenditures to meet human needs and protect the environment. Progress towards a global society that is more fair, peaceful and ecologically sustainable is inter-dependent. We are unlikely to get far on any of these objectives without progress on all. And I want to emphasize that these are not preconditions for disarmament, but together with disarmament, are preconditions for human survival. In our relationships with both each other and the planet, we are now up against the hard choice that Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., warned us about, non-violence or non-existence.

  • October: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    October 2, 1981 – During his tenth month in office, President Ronald Reagan announced his strategic program and signaled the largest peacetime military buildup in U.S. history. His nuclear buildup plan stated that the U.S. would “strengthen and modernize the strategic nuclear triad with the highest priority of improving the command-and-control system.”  President Reagan proposed a new cruise missile program that included the deployment of long-range nuclear attack cruise missiles on submarines, two new strategic bombers, 100 long-range Peacekeeper MX missiles carrying a total of 1,000 nuclear warheads, and a new class of Trident strategic nuclear submarines.  Many analysts and observers at the time were alarmed that this program confirmed the administration’s commitment to a nuclear war-fighting doctrine that included MX missiles, anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, and extensive ABM Treaty-violating ballistic missile defenses (which were announced later in President Reagan’s March 23, 1983 Strategic Defense Initiative “Star Wars” speech).  Although supporters of the plan justified the buildup as a means of addressing growing Soviet nuclear parity, many other nuclear experts expressed the grave concern that this buildup would increase the risks of global thermonuclear war.  Comments:  And indeed those concerns were realized as the world came dangerously close to nuclear war, several times during the Reagan presidency.   Contributing factors were the September 1, 1983 Soviet shoot down of Korean Airlines Flight 007 near Sakhalin Island, a September 26, 1983 Soviet false nuclear alert, the November 1983 Able Archer military exercise that Soviet leadership widely misinterpreted as a warmup for an eventual U.S. first strike nuclear attack, and the August 11, 1984 off-the-cuff sound check gaffe by President Reagan (“we begin bombing Russia in five minutes”).  After the Cold War ended in 1991, the promised Peace Dividend resulted in the cutting of nuclear arsenals by only a fraction.  Unfortunately, the recent return of Cold War tensions, particularly after the 2014-2015 Crimea-Ukraine Crisis, have substantially increased the risks of nuclear Armageddon.  (Source:  Raymond Garthoff.  “The Great Transition:  American-Soviet Relations and the End of the Cold War.”  Washington, DC:  The Brookings Institution Press, 2000, p. 36.)

    October 9, 2002 – At a Congressional hearing on Capitol Hill held on this date, the Subcommittee on Health of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs discussed the purposeful use of chemical, biological, and nuclear agents against U.S. military personnel, as part of a Defense Department program known as Project SHAD (Shipboard Hazard and Defense) from 1962-73.  The purpose of the SHAD tests was to identify U.S. warships’ vulnerabilities to attacks with biological, chemical, or radioactive warfare substances and to develop procedures to respond to such attacks while maintaining a warfighting capability.   During the hearing, approximately 5,000 U.S. sailors were identified by the VA as victims of these previously classified tests.  The Chairman of the Committee, Rep. Christopher H. Smith of New Jersey, testified that, “Back in the 1980s, I was contacted by a widow of a sailor who served onboard the U.S.S. McKinley when it was sprayed with a plutonium mist as part of ‘Operation Wig Wam.’”  A nonsmoker, the sailor nevertheless died several years later of a very rare form of lung cancer, most probably as a direct result of inhaling just a minuscule portion of the deadliest poison ever invented by mankind.  Comments:  In a 1995 interview with Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Ma.), this member of Congress summed up the impact of decades of Pentagon testing on U.S. military and civilian subjects during the Cold War (1945-1991):  “A certain number of soldiers and civilians were used as human guinea pigs in order to determine what the effects of exposure to radiation, to plutonium, to other radioactive materials would be, and then those lessons would be applied to the planning for a nuclear war between the U.S. and Soviet Union…And unfortunately the government knew how dangerous radiation was before most of these people were ever put into those experimental situations.”  In conclusion, Rep. Markey said, “And so, to a certain extent, one of the unfortunate, ironic twists of the Cold War is that the U.S. did more damage to American citizens and soldiers in their use of nuclear material than they ever did to the Soviet Union.”  Comments:  One can’t help but wonder if the nuclear weapons states are still conducting such tests, perhaps in much more subtle, nontransparent ways, to set the stage for future nuclear war-fighting.  This represents yet another frightening reason why nuclear weapons must be reduced immediately and eliminated in the very near future.  (Sources:  America’s Defense Monitor.  Program No. 847, “The Legacy of Hiroshima.”  Center for Defense Information, aired August 6, 1995 and U.S. Congress. “Military Operations Aspects of SHAD and Project 112.”  Hearing before the Subcommittee on Health of the Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, 107th Congress, 2nd Session, Oct. 9, 2002, pp. 1-8 [Serial No. 107-43].)

    October 11, 1957 – As a B-47 bomber departed Homestead Air Force Base, Florida, one of the aircraft’s outrigger tires exploded causing the plane to crash during takeoff into an uninhabited area just 3,800 feet from the end of the runway.  The aircraft was carrying one nuclear weapon in ferry configuration in the bomb bay and one nuclear capsule in a carrying case in the crew compartment.  The nuclear capsule was recovered mostly intact later but when the plane’s fuel ignited at the time of the crash, intense heat triggered two explosions of the conventional high explosive charges jacketing the full-fledged hydrogen bomb.  Radioactive materials contaminated a large area of the crash zone and an extensive cleanup had to be conducted.  Comments:  Many of the hundreds if not thousands of nuclear accidents involving all nine nuclear weapons states still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny.  These near-nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating global nuclear weapons arsenals.  (Sources:  Bethan Owen.  “13 Times the U.S. Almost Destroyed Itself With Its Own Nuclear Weapons.”  Deseret News, Salt Lake City, Utah, July 13, 2014 at http://www.deseretnews.com/top/2605/10/October-11-1957-Homestead-Air-Force-Baser-Florida-13-times-the-U.S.-almost-destroyed-itself-with.html    and U.S. Department of Defense.  “Narrative Summaries of Accidents Involving Nuclear Weapons, 1950-1980.”  National Security Archives at George Washington University http://nsarchive.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/653.pdf both accessed on September 15, 2016.)

    October 20, 2015 – Two nuclear waste dump fires reported by journalists on this date at two different locations in the U.S., one near St. Louis and the other outside Beatty, Nevada, highlight a growing concern about the large number of nuclear waste dumps that originally were established during the Cold War to sequester away toxic contaminants from the nation’s nuclear weapons production complex.  Almost all of those waste sites have been transferred over the last couple decades from strong U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) stewardship to local, privately-managed companies with weaker DOE scrutiny.  In addition to the hundreds of toxic nuclear dumps generated by decades of nuclear weapons production (most notable is the Hanford Reservation in Washington state which contains several leaking million-plus gallon highly radioactive waste tanks), there are also growing amounts of spent fuel and a huge volume of other nuclear wastes produced daily by around 100 U.S. civilian nuclear power plants.   Comments:  In addition to the dangerous risk of nuclear power plant accidents like Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima, and others too numerous to list here, the tremendously out-of-control civilian and military nuclear waste sequestration, remediation, and permanent storage conundrum as well as the terrorist targeting potential, the economic unsustainability of civilian nuclear power, and the potential for nuclear proliferation points logically to an accelerated phase-out of global nuclear power plants over the next decade.  Another priority is a new strategic government plan to have military weapons manufacturers like Lockheed Martin and many other firms significantly scale back their arms production and refocus on new technologies and strategies to address the nuclear waste transport, storage, and clean-up problem while at the same time addressing an accelerated nuclear weapons dismantlement imperative consistent with a global zero plan of action.  (Sources:  Keith Rogers.  “Fire That Shut Down US 95 Called Hot, Powerful.”  Las Vegas Review-Journal. October 20, 2015 at http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nevada/fire-shut-down-us-95-called-hot-powerful and Matt Pearce.  “Officials Squabble as Underground Fire Burns Near Radioactive Waste Dump in St. Louis Area.”  Los Angeles Times. October 20, 2015 at http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-nuclear-fire-20151020-story.html both accessed on September 15, 2016.)

    October 27, 1969 – As part of President Richard Nixon’s and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger’s detailed top secret “Madman Strategy” encompassing the period from October 13-30, 1969, on this date a squadron of 18 B-52 strategic bombers carrying dozens of multi-megaton hydrogen bombs departed from the western U.S., were refueled by KC-135 tanker aircraft near the Canadian Arctic, and proceeded to fly to the eastern borders of the Soviet Union in perhaps the biggest, most destabilizing, and horrendously dangerous case of nuclear saber-rattling in Cold War history.  A 2015 book by William Burr and Jeffrey P. Kimball titled, “Nixon’s Nuclear Specter:  The Secret Alert of 1969, Madman Diplomacy and the Vietnam War,” detailed President Nixon’s new Vietnam War strategy to threaten the Soviet Union with a massive nuclear strike and persuade its leaders, especially General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev, to believe that the President was actually crazy enough to go through with a first strike.  The ultimate purpose of this extensively planned series of global military moves (which included military operations in the U.S., Western Europe, the Mideast, and the Atlantic and Pacific regions) was to coerce the Soviets to pressure North Vietnamese leaders to make significant military concessions at the negotiating table to allow the U.S. breathing space it needed to withdraw its military forces from Indochina, Vietnamize the war, and prevent a quick victory by the communist North.  Comments:  At risk was the future of the human species because many Soviet leaders actually knew about previously leaked nuclear first strike plans by the Pentagon.  Ironically, a pre-emptive Soviet nuclear first strike became much more likely due to Nixon and Kissinger’s Strangelovian “logic.”  This situation represented another example of how extremely fortunate the human race has been to avoid a nuclear Armageddon.  But one’s luck eventually runs out!  The penultimate issue facing our world today is:  Will the growing risks of nuclear war finally be zeroed out?  Only a growing global citizens’ movement can coerce our leaders to do what is right and eliminate forever the nuclear threat.  The alternative is inevitable omnicide.

    October 30, 1961 – The Soviet Union’s “Tsar Bomba,” the most powerful nuclear weapon ever constructed was detonated after being dropped from a TU-95 bomber at approximately four kilometers altitude over Novaya Zemlya Island in the Russian Arctic Sea.  This hydrogen bomb formally designated RDS-220, which weighed about 27 tons and was eight meters long, had an estimated yield of 50 megatons or the equivalent of 3,800 Hiroshima bombs.  The tremendous blast triggered a seismic shock wave, equivalent to an earthquake registered at 5.0 on the Richter Scale, that travelled around the world.  The bomb’s zone of total destruction measured 35 kilometers in radius and the mushroom cloud generated rose to the altitude of 60 kilometers.  Third degree burns would have been possible at a distance of hundreds of kilometers.  Comments:  This blast was just one of 715 nuclear explosive tests conducted by the U.S.S.R./Russia from 1949-1990 and over 2,000 such tests conducted by all nine nuclear weapons states.  Although both the U.S. and Russia signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), only Russia ratified the agreement.  A U.S. vote for ratification failed in the U.S. Senate on October 13, 1999 by a vote of 51-48.  Clearly, ratifying the CTBT ought to be a top priority of the incoming 45th President of the United States, along with other essential steps to address the global nuclear threat such as de-alerting U.S. nuclear weapons (and persuading Russia, China, and other powers to follow suit), reversing planned improvements in nuclear weapons development (which will cost our nation over $1 trillion over the next 30 years), beginning the phase-out of civilian nuclear energy (not just in our nation but worldwide), and many other critical unilateral and multilateral moves.  (Source:  “30 October 1961 – The Tsar Bomba.”  Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Preparatory Commission website.  https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/30-october-1961-the-tsar-bomba accessed on September 15, 2016.)

  • North Korea’s Nuclear Test

    This article was first published by A New Map.

    hellman_bookEarlier today, North Korea conducted its fifth and most successful nuclear test, with an estimated yield close to that of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. This dangerous and deplorable situation was predictable—and probably preventable—as noted on page 197 of my wife’s and my book, A New Map for Relationships: Creating True Love at Home & Peace on the Planet:

    If we continue to engage in regime change around the world and encourage it in North Korea via crippling sanctions, that nation’s leaders will maintain or increase their nuclear arsenal in order to deter such efforts. It’s a matter of self-preservation for them. Regime change probably would result in their being killed.

    I have included a longer book excerpt immediately following my signature line. If you agree it’s time we got smart about ending nuclear proliferation, order a copy of the book—it’s now available from Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and many other booksellers—and then follow the suggestions in the section “A Call to Action,” which starts on page 271. Actions you can take right now include signing up for updates and alerts, and encouraging friends to read A New Map through Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and other social media. One more thing: We need more reviews posted on Amazon. Thanks very much for any help you can provide.

    Martin Hellman

    EXCERPT FROM THE BOOK’S SECTION ON NORTH KOREA

    By the end of this section, you’ll have seen how our failing to take in the bigger picture—failing to think holistically—played a role in North Korea building its nuclear weapons and is unintentionally encouraging that nation to expand its arsenal. …

    As always, I’ll focus on places where our nation has power to improve what appears to be an impossible relationship—in other words, I’ll focus on mistakes our nation has made and therefore can correct. But my focus on our mistakes is not to excuse the many despicable acts committed by the rulers of North Korea. Rather, that focus recognizes that we do not have direct control over their actions, and scolding them tends to make them dig in their heels. I see it as a hopeful sign that we have options for improving relations even with a regime as abhorrent as North Korea’s. The sad part is that, thus far, we have squandered those options by allowing repugnance to override our national interests. …

    My Stanford colleague and former Director of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Dr. Siegfried Hecker, has visited North Korea seven times on unofficial missions sanctioned by our government. In a 2010 paper, he gave his perspective on how the deal fell apart (emphasis added):

    The Agreed Framework was opposed immediately by many in Congress who believed that it rewarded bad behavior. Congress failed to appropriate funds for key provisions of the pact, causing the United States to fall behind in its commitments almost from the beginning. … [In 2002,] the Bush administration killed the Agreed Framework for domestic political reasons and because it suspected Pyongyang of cheating by covertly pursuing uranium enrichment. Doing so traded a potential threat that would have taken years to turn into bombs for one that took months, dramatically changing the diplomatic landscape in Pyongyang’s favor. … We found that Pyongyang was willing to slow its drive for nuclear weapons only when it believed the fundamental relationship with the United States was improving, but not when the regime was threatened.

    Hecker’s last sentence provides the key to defusing the Korean crisis. If we continue to engage in regime change around the world and encourage it in North Korea via crippling sanctions, that nation’s leaders will maintain or increase their nuclear arsenal in order to deter such efforts. It’s a matter of self-preservation for them. Regime change probably would result in their being killed.

    Holistic thinking would require us to take in the perspective of North Korea’s leaders. We don’t have to like them, but we do have to understand them. If we were to consider their perspective, we would recognize that, as distasteful as the North Korean government is, encouraging regime change is not in our best interests, because it will lead to the North maintaining, and probably increasing, its nuclear arsenal. If we were to think things through more rationally, new possibilities would open up.

    … in January 2015, North Korea offered to suspend nuclear testing in return for cancellation of the joint US-South Korean military exercises. Those war games started a month later, and North Korea conducted a nuclear test in January 2016. We don’t know if suspending our war games would have prevented that test. Only if we had taken North Korea up on its offer would we have useful information on whether or not the country’s leaders had been serious.

  • NAPF Strongly Condemns North Korean Nuclear Test; Urges Broader Perspective

    NUCLEAR AGE PEACE FOUNDATION

    For Immediate Release
    Contact:
    Rick Wayman
    (805) 696-5159 / (805) 965-3443
    rwayman@napf.org

    NAPF Strongly Condemns North Korean Nuclear Test; Urges Broader Perspective

    The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF) deplores the continued testing of nuclear weapons and the provocative statements by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Today’s nuclear test – the fifth by North Korea – makes apparent the growing nuclear dangers in the Northeast Asian region, and generally throughout the world.

    The world’s other eight nuclear-armed nations have tested a great deal. Over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted worldwide, and the United States alone has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests.

    The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which has been open for signature for over 20 years, has still not entered into force. Forty-four key nations, known as “Annex 2 States,” must sign and ratify the CTBT before it can enter into effect. Of these, North Korea, India and Pakistan have neither signed nor ratified the treaty. China, Egypt, Iran, Israel and the United States have signed the treaty, but have not ratified it.

    While all nations other than North Korea have been observing a moratorium on explosive nuclear tests, many nuclear-armed nations, including the United States, have continued conducting sub-critical tests and computer simulations. NAPF believes that all nuclear testing must stop. This includes North Korea’s provocative yield-producing explosions, as well as the sub-critical tests and computer simulations that other nuclear-armed nations engage in.

    Tests of nuclear weapon delivery vehicles, such as last Monday’s launch of a Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missile by the U.S. Air Force, are also dangerous and destabilizing. The modernization of nuclear arsenals and production infrastructure by all nine nuclear-armed nations is driving a perilous nuclear arms race.

    The Korean War has never officially come to an end. North Korea has asked numerous times to bring the war footing to an end, and has been rejected each time. The U.S. still keeps around 28,000 troops in South Korea and conducts annual war games targeting North Korea. All parties must negotiate an end to the hostilities, instead of relying on a 63 year-old Armistice Agreement.

    Finally, NAPF urges all nine nuclear-armed nations to fulfill their obligations under existing international law. Nuclear-armed countries have an obligation to convene negotiations in good faith for an end to the nuclear arms race and for nuclear disarmament, as required by Article VI of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and customary international law. As North Korea’s continued nuclear testing shows, the only way to ensure that nuclear weapons are never used is to negotiate their complete abolition.

    #                              #                                  #

    For further information, contact Rick Wayman at rwayman@napf.org or (805) 696-5159.

    The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation – NAPF’s mission is to educate and advocate for peace and a world free of nuclear weapons and to empower peace leaders.  Founded in 1982, the Foundation is comprised of individuals and organizations worldwide who realize the imperative for peace in the Nuclear Age. The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation is a non-partisan, non-profit organization with consultative status to the United Nations.

  • The Simple Act of Pushing a Button

    “Since the appearance of visible life on Earth, 380 million years had to elapse in order for a butterfly to learn how to fly, 180 million years to create a rose with no other commitment than to be beautiful, and four geological eras in order for us human beings to be able to sing better than birds, and to be able to die from love. It is not honorable for the human talent, in the golden age of science, to have conceived the way for such an ancient and colossal process to return to the nothingness from which it came through the simple act of pushing a button.”

    I recently came across this quotation by the great Colombian novelist Gabriel Garcia Marquez, the author of One Hundred Years of Solitude and recipient of the 1982 Nobel Prize for Literature.  The quotation is from a 1986 speech by Garcia Marquez entitled “The Cataclysm of Damocles.”  In the short quotation, he captures what needs to be said about nuclear weapons succinctly, poetically and beautifully.  With a few deft literary brushstrokes, he shows that the journey of life from nothingness to now could be ended with no more than “the simple act of pushing a button.”

    The button is a metaphor for setting in motion a nuclear war, which could happen by miscalculation, mistake or malice.  Of course, it matters whose finger is on the button, but it matters even more that anyone’s finger is on the button.  There are not good fingers and bad fingers resting on the button.  No one is stable enough, rational enough, sane enough, or wise enough to trust with deciding to push the nuclear button.  It is madness to leave the door open to the possibility of “a return to nothingness.”

    On one side of the ledger is everything natural and extraordinary about life with its long evolution bringing us to the present and poised to carry its processes forward into the future.  On the other side of the ledger is “the button,” capable of bringing most life on the planet to a screeching halt.  Also on this side of the ledger are those people who remain ignorant or apathetic to the nuclear dangers confronting humanity.

    We all need to recognize what is at stake and choose a side.  Put simply, do you stand with life and the processes of nature that have brought such beauty and diversity to our world, or do you stand with the destructive products of science that have brought us to the precipice of annihilation?  We must each make a choice.

    I fear too many of us are not awakened to the seriousness and risks of the unfolding situation.  We are taken in by the techno-talk that amplifies the messages of national security linked to the button.  Nuclear deterrence is no more than a hypothesis about human psychology and behavior.  It does not protect people from a nuclear attack.  It is unproven and unprovable.  Nuclear deterrence may or may not work, but we know that it cannot provide physical protection against a nuclear attack.  Those who believe in it, do so at their own peril and at our common peril.

    The possibility of “a return to nothingness” is too great a risk to take.  We must put down the nuclear-armed gun.  We must dismantle the button and the potential annihilation it represents.  We must listen to our hearts and end the nuclear insanity by ending the nuclear weapons era.  If we fail to act with engaged hearts, we will continue to stand at the precipice of annihilation – the precipice of a world without butterflies or beautiful roses, without birds or humans.  The golden age of science will come to an end as a triumph of cataclysmic devastation, which will be humanity’s most enduring failure.

    Reading, discussing and understanding the meaning of Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s short quotation should be required of every schoolchild, every citizen, and every leader of every country.


    Vaya aquí para la versión española.

    David Krieger is President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (www.wagingpeace.org).  He is the author and editor of many books on peace and nuclear weapons abolition, including Speaking of Peace: Quotations to Inspire Action.

     

  • September: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    September 2, 1981 – On this date, Dr. Alice Stewart (1906-2002), a distinguished epidemiologist who possessed recognized expertise on radioactivity in the environment which resulted in her winning the Right Livelihood Award in 1986, was interviewed in Birmingham, England by Robert Del Tredici (or one of his representatives or assistants), author of the 1987 book “At Work in the Fields of the Bomb.”  In the interview, Dr. Stewart expressed very serious concerns about not only the long-term health and environmental impacts of nuclear bomb tests (over 2,000 of which were conducted between 1945 and the mid-1990s) but also of the continued use of civilian nuclear power plants, “…the (nuclear) bomb tests have had a measurable effect because you can measure it in your own bones.  And if we allow every nation in this world to become dependent on nuclear energy for its electricity – you’re literally going to set the clock back.  It could come to a point where biosphere development, which has taken millennia to produce human beings, will be put slowly into reverse, and humans won’t be the first to go…(the) amoebae and the things that feed on them, then the next, and the next, and the next…and then us.”  Her warnings about the frightful impact of contamination from nuclear weapons production, storage, deployment, and accidents as well as from utilizing nuclear energy in today’s 400 global nuclear power plants is as relevant in 2016 and beyond as it was at the time of this interview 35 years ago, “Radioactive waste is bound to increase not only the population load of cancers, but more importantly the population load of congenital defects of future generations of the human race…studies of low-dose effects…(including) a study of nuclear workers in America…show(ed) the effects of age on the risk, the effects of latency on the risk, and the effects of dose level on the risk.  The key finding here is that the lower the dose, which in practice means the slower the delivery of radiation to the public, the more cancer risk there is per unit dose.  In other words, it doesn’t make it safer to deliver the radiation slowly; it in fact makes it more dangerous…By relying on the technology of (nuclear) fission, we’re going against the very processes that make life possible.”

    September 11, 1974 – At a Congressional hearing, former CIA director and then Secretary of Defense James R. Schlesinger testified on the safeguards and protections afforded to Americans in the event of a counterforce attack (aimed only at U.S. military facilities not civilian population centers) to minimize the impact of a nuclear strike on the United States.  Much of the information presented was at least partially classified with specific details denied to the American public.  But the reply by Secretary Schlesinger or one of his assistants to a question inquiring about the effect on our nation’s medical infrastructure of such a nuclear attack as “slight,” triggered a news media backlash.  Comments:  Numerous studies by global medical experts and those with first-hand knowledge of the impact of exposure to a nuclear explosion (studied extensively at Hiroshima and Nagasaki and elsewhere by the 1950 Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission, other U.S. bodies, and subsequent independent, nongovernmental scientific and medical entities) have concluded that even one very limited nuclear attack on the wealthiest country on the planet, the U.S., would have devastatingly horrendous impacts on our medical response.  Burns, radiation and related casualties numbering at least in the hundreds of thousands would dramatically overtax the capabilities of our nation’s extensive medical infrastructure. This represents yet another critical reason why global nuclear weapons arsenals should be substantially reduced and eliminated as soon as possible.  (Sources:  Louis Rene Beres.  “Apocalypse: Nuclear Catastrophe in World Politics.”  Chicago:  University of Chicago Press, 1980, p. 162; Ira Helfand, MD; Lachlan Forrow, MD; Michael McCally, MD, PhD: and Robert K. Musil, MPH, PhD, Physicians for Social Responsibility, “Projected U.S. Casualties and Destruction of U.S. Medical Services From Attacks by Russian Nuclear Forces.”  Medicine and Global Survival. Vol. 7, No. 2, February 2002, http://psr.org/resources/projected-us-casualties-and-destruction.html, and Solomon F. Marston, editor, “The Medical Implications of Nuclear War.”  Washington, DC:  National Academies (U.S.) Press, 1986, http://www.ncbi.nih.gov/books/NBK219165/ both accessed August 16, 2016.)

    September 17, 1966 – After years of Cold War-fueled bluff and bluster (that began in the late 1950s and continued in 1964 with statements by then Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev boasting of a “fantastic new weapon” and “a monstrous new terrible weapons,” respectively), it was determined later that on this date, the Soviet Union had, in fact, begun a series of nearly a dozen tests on the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) which continued through late 1967.  The FOBS was a nuclear-armed, de-orbital satellite that would be undetectable by early warning radars built in Canada and facing northward.  Because of their low orbits, there would be less time to detect the orbiting H-Bombs as they came in from a southern trajectory as compared to nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles that had to travel thousands of miles over the Arctic Circle to reach U.S. targets.  This threat convinced nuclear strategists and scientists to consider countering Soviet FOBS with similar U.S. orbital H-Bombs.  Thankfully, it was determined that orbiting systems didn’t have the payload capacity or accuracy of weapons launched in a ballistic trajectory.  And the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibited Cold War nuclear arms racing in outer space or on celestial bodies such as the Moon.  Comments:  Unfortunately with renewed Cold War II tensions apparent today, FOBS may be just one area of nuclear weapons development that may be considered in the future, despite their illegality in international law.  More likely is the threat of FOBS development by a rogue nation such as North Korea.  Another related threat has recently been uncovered by the news media.  Both the U.S. and Russia are planning to develop hypersonic nuclear weapons platforms that could strike earthbound targets from above the atmosphere.  A few weeks ago, Colonel General Sergei Karakayev, Russian Commander of the Strategic Missile Forces (SMF), confirmed statements made earlier by Lt. Col. Aleksei Solodovinikov to the Russian news media that the SMF Academy is developing a hypersonic strategic bomber capable of striking with nuclear weapons from outer space.  This state of affairs represents yet another reason why these doomsday weapons should be sharply reduced immediately and eliminated completely as soon as possible.  (Sources:  John Pike, Eric Stambler, Christopher Bolckom, Lora Lumpe, David C. Wright, and Lisabeth Gronlund.  “Chicken Little and Darth Vader:  Is the Sky Really Falling?”  Federation of American Scientists, Oct. 1, 1991, pp. 6-7 and “New Russian Bomber to be Able to Launch Nuclear Attacks From Outer Space.”  Sputnik News.  July 13, 2016, http://sputniknews.com/military/20160713/1042888473/russia-space-bomber-engine.html accessed August 16, 2016.)

    September 19, 2004 – On this date, the Washington Post published an op-ed by Dr. Bruce Blair, a former Minuteman nuclear missile launch control officer, Brookings Institution nuclear policy analyst, and president of the Center for Defense Information/World Security Institute in Washington, DC.   Titled, “The Wrong Deterrence:  The Threat of Loose Nukes is One of Our Own Making,” the piece noted that, “Even the U.S. nuclear control apparatus is far from fool-proof.  For example, a Pentagon investigation of nuclear safeguards conducted several years ago made a startling discovery – terrorist hackers might be able to gain back-door electronic access to the U.S. naval communications network, seize control of radio towers such as the one in Cutler, Maine, and illicitly transmit a launch order to U.S. Trident ballistic missile submarines armed with 200 nuclear weapons apiece.  This exposure was deemed so serious that Trident launch crews had to be given new instructions for confirming the validity of any launch order they receive.  They would now reject certain types of firing orders that previously would have been carried out immediately.  Both countries (the U.S. and Russia) are running terrorist risks of this sort for the sake of an obsolete deterrent strategy.  The notion that either the U.S. or Russia would deliberately attack the other with nuclear weapons is ludicrous, while the danger that terrorists are plotting to get their hands on these arsenals is real.  We need to kick our old habits and stand down our hair-trigger forces.”  Comments:  Dr. Blair’s point is still valid today twelve years after he wrote this op-ed although U.S.-Russian relations have worsened due to the Crimea-Ukraine Crisis, NATO expansion, and the deployment of military forces, including nuclear weapons, by both sides along their common borders in Europe.  In fact, it is even more valid in an era when cyberattacks have increased exponentially by all the major nuclear powers and by non-state actors, and terrorist groups.   Andrew Fuller’s recent Arms Control Today article points out that, “Top military and defense officials in the U.S. are currently contemplating plans to use cyberattack capabilities against enemy missile and command-and-control systems as part of a new push for full-spectrum missile defense.”  There is clearly a growing danger that leaked documents including procedures or methodologies regarding cyberattack successes may serve as a road map for terrorists to facilitate their hacking into nuclear launch systems.   Another concern is that messing around with other nuclear powers’ command-and-control systems might inadvertently trigger an accidental, unintentional, or inadvertent nuclear missile attack, especially if that power perceives that their early warning system is being interfered with or shutdown by a nation that may be about to launch a first strike.  All these issues speak to the importance of not only working toward global zero nuclear forces but to immediately instituting global de-alerting of all nuclear arsenals.  (Source:  Andrew Fuller.  “The Danger of Using Cyberattacks to Counter Nuclear Threats.”  Arms Control Today.  July/August 2016, http://www.armscontrol.org/ACT/2016_07/Features/The-Dangers-of-Using-Cyberattacks-to-Counter-Nuclear-Threats accessed August 16, 2016.)

    September 25, 1959 – A U.S. Navy P-5M antisubmarine aircraft carrying an unarmed nuclear depth charge developed mechanical problems but was unable to reach land to make an emergency landing and crashed into the Puget Sound near Whidbey Island, Washington.  The nuclear weapon was never recovered despite an extensive search.  Comments:  While it is very unlikely that a long-lost and probably corroded nuclear warhead would detonate, there remains deadly serious concerns about the very long-term radioactive contamination from this incident and hundreds of other similar Broken Arrows.  These nuclear threats can impact human and other species virtually forever unless such devices are found and disposed of properly.  After all, the radioactive isotopes found in nuclear weapons or in the reactor cores of naval surface ships, submarines, and in the payload bays of aircraft lost at sea since 1945 possess an extremely long half-life of decay – 713 million years for uranium-235 and 4.5 billion years for uranium-238!  (Source:  Richard Halloran.  “U.S. Discloses Accidents Involving Nuclear Weapons.”  New York Times.  May 26, 1981.)

    September 29-30, 2015 – After Jeremy Corbyn won a landslide leadership vote to head the British Labour Party, he stated publicly his opposition to spending over 100 billion pounds to replace Britain’s current Trident force with a new generation of nuclear submarines.  Not only that, he won the renewed support of countless numbers of global antinuclear politicians, activists, and citizenry by going further, “187 countries don’t feel the need to have a nuclear weapon to protect their security, why should those five (U.S., Russia, Great Britain, France, and China) need it themselves?”  He also noted that, “nuclear weapons didn’t do the U.S.A. much good on 9/11,” and even more impressively he shocked some of his own party members by saying on BBC Radio on September 30th that if he was elected prime minister, he would never press the nuclear button.  Corbyn concluded that interview by saying, “I am opposed to the use of nuclear weapons.  I want to see a nuclear-free world.  I believe it is possible…I think we should be promoting an international nuclear weapons convention which would lead to a nuclear-free world.”  Comments:  Unfortunately the ultra-powerful, entrenched British Military-Industrial-Parliamentary Complex viciously responded to Corbyn’s optimistic views on ending the nuclear arms race with personal attacks and appeals to the so-called logic and reasonableness of seventy flawed years of nuclear deterrence theory.  Even a Labour Party MP John Woodcock fueled the firestorm of attacks by hypocritically claiming that, “Mr. Corbyn’s position would make the grotesque horror of a nuclear holocaust more likely.” As the weeks and months passed since Corbyn’s brave pronouncements, more and more British MPs and other spokesmen and women of the status quo fell into line and last month on July 18, 2016 members of the House of Commons including the entire ruling Conservative Party and a majority of opposition Labour Party members cast their vote (472-117) to spend at least the equivalent of up to 250 billion U.S. dollars by 2036 to build new strategic nuclear submarines.  New Conservative Party Prime Minister Theresa May was wholeheartedly behind heightening Britain’s participation in a renewed global nuclear arms race by adding she would be willing and able to order a nuclear attack anytime it was necessary.  The only ray of light was the bloc voting support of the Scottish National Party MPs who voted with the minority against upgrading the British nuclear arsenal.  (Sources:  “Jeremy Corbyn Row After ‘I’d Not Fire Nuclear Weapons’ Comment.” BBC.  Sept. 30, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/new/uk-politics-34399565 and Dan De Luce.  “British Parliament Votes to Spend Big on Nukes.” Foreign Policy. July 18, 2016, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/18/british-parliament-votes-to-spend-big-on-nukes/ both accessed on August 16, 2016.)

  • August: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    August 1, 1976 – Protesters occupied part of the Seabrook, New Hampshire nuclear power plant site to protest the dangers of nuclear power.  This was just one of thousands of nonviolent protests or demonstrations staged worldwide over the last sixty years since dangerous nuclear power reactors were introduced into the energy grid.  In addition to high-profile deadly accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, many other frequent leaks, accidents, discharges to water aquifers, rivers and oceans, along with the terrorist targeting threat and proliferation risks make civilian nuclear power plants a completely unreasonable, nontransparent risk to global populations.  Comments:  Although California has taken the lead in declaring itself the first nuclear-free-state after the last nuclear plant in that state at Diablo Canyon is scheduled to shut down permanently in 2025, there remain serious concerns about nuclear safety at many U.S. civilian power plants and military nuclear weapons production facilities (such as the leaking million gallon nuclear waste tanks at Hanford Reservation, Washington), private for-profit nuclear waste dumps in Texas, and even at research reactors across the nation and the planet.  The dramatic decrease in solar energy costs have largely made nuclear  power uneconomical despite the fact that the nuclear lobby, the Obama Administration, and many in Congress continue to support using government-funded taxpayer subsidies to build new reactors such as the Bechtel Corporation’s multi-billion dollar Unit 2 reactor at Watts Bar, Tennessee, completed in 2015.  (Sources:  Harold Marcuse.  “Seabrook, NH Plant Occupation Page.”  July 30, 2007 updated Feb. 18, 2012, http://www.marcuse.org/harold/page/seabrook.htm, Aaron Miguel Cantu.  “New Yorkers Fear Gas Pipeline Near Nuclear Reactors Could Spell Disaster.”  Dec. 3, 2015, http://america.aljazeera.com/multimedia/2015/ny-pipeline-near-nuclear-reactor-sparks… and Fred de Sousa.  “Bechtel Salutes TVA, Work Force on Major Milestone for U.S. Nuclear Plant.”  Aug. 15, 2015,  http://www.bechtel.com/newsroom/releases/2015/08/bechtel-milestone-watts-bar-substantially-complete/ accessed July 21, 2016.)

    August 8, 1994 – – In one of the twenty known incidents of the attempted illicit sale of Russian bomb-grade fissile materials in the last 25 years since the breakup of the Soviet Union, security officials at Munich International Airport in Germany arrested individuals who were caught in possession of 363.4 grams of plutonium – enough to make one or more radiological weapons or dirty bombs. Extensive forensic analysis by U.S. and French nuclear scientists have shown that several samples of fissile materials offered up for sale in the past two decades in a number of Western and former Soviet bloc nations have reportedly come from the same stockpile – the Russian nuclear weapons facility known as Mayak Production Association located in Ozersk in the Ural Mountains almost 1,000 miles east of Moscow.  Athough Russian President Putin has steadily cut back his nation’s overall nuclear security cooperation with Washington in 2015-16 on the grounds that it no longer needs U.S. financial or technical assistance to safeguard its fissile material stockpile, a recent CIA report reaffirmed a long-held U.S. position that it is unlikely that Russian authorities have been able to recover all of the stolen nuclear materials.  Comments:  Although some significant progress in securing and protecting nuclear materials from theft or diversion has been allegedly confirmed by Russia and other Nuclear Club nations at the four biennial nuclear security summits (2010-16), much more needs to be accomplished in the United Nations and other international fora to prevent the use of fissile materials to unleash weapons of mass destruction whether the materials diverted come from civilian nuclear plants or military nuclear weapons facilities.  In addition to concerns about the resulting mass casualties and short- and long-term radioactive contamination from such a catastrophe, there is also the frightening possibility that in times of crisis such an attack might inadvertently trigger nuclear retaliation or even precipitate a nuclear exchange.   (Source:  Douglas Birch and R. Jeffrey Smith.  “The Fuel for a Nuclear Bomb is in the Hands of an Unknown Black Marketeer from Russia, U.S. Officials Say.”  Center for Public Integrity, November 12, 2015 reprinted in Courier:  The Stanley Foundation Newsletter, Number 86, Spring 2016, pp. 7-14.)

    August 9, 1945 – Before Japanese leaders had time to assess the tens of thousands of deaths (130,000) and injuries that resulted from the August 6th U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima and after the Soviet Union’s August 8th declaration of war against Japan and resulting extensive attack on Japanese-occupied Manchuria (also on August 8), the United States dropped a second atomic bomb on the largely civilian population of Nagasaki killing another 70,000 people and injuring tens of thousands more.  U.S. Army Air Force Major Charles Sweeney commanded the B-29 bomber nicknamed “Bock’s Car” which dropped the plutonium-fueled atomic bomb (“Fat Man”) at 11:02 a.m. local time.  The bomb exploded 1,650 feet above the city of Nagasaki with the equivalent force of 22,000 tons of TNT.  Many military and scientific leaders believed the atomic bombings were unnecessary and excessively cruel.   Before the bombings, General and later President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, argued, “It wasn’t necessary to hit them with that awful thing…”  Years after the war ended, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral William D. Leahy publicly stated, “It is my opinion that the use of this barbarous weapon at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was of no material assistance in our war against Japan.”  Nevertheless President Truman and his closest advisers disregarded these objections focusing instead on the need to intimidate the Soviet Union in the postwar years by demonstrating this super weapon in time of war. The human impact of these two atomic bomb attacks was horrendous, from the initial super-heated vaporizing blast to other terrifying effects including the impact of thermal radiation on people farther from ground zero.  Other results of the explosions were the shock wave and the short- and long-term biological impacts of the ionizing radiation as well as the long-lasting social and psychological impacts on the surviving habakushas.  In subsequent decades, tens of thousands more Japanese died as a result of debilitating cancers and long-term illnesses inflicted on hundreds of thousands of survivors of the August 1945 atomic bombings. (Sources:  Dan Drollette, Jr. “Hiroshima and Nagasaki:  The Many Retrospectives.”  The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Aug. 8, 2014.  http://thebulletin.org/hiroshima-and-nagasaki-many-retrospectives7366, Gar Alperovitz.  “The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb:  And the Architecture of An American Myth.”  New York:  Alfred A. Knopf, 1995, pp. 3-6, 15, 672, and Oliver Stone and Peter Kuznick.  “The Untold History of the United States.”  New York:  Gallery Books, 2012.)

    August 15, 1984 – A Vladivostok-based Soviet army unit was reportedly issued a coded message placing units on a war-footing but the order was withdrawn a short time later.  This followed a joking reference the previous day by President Ronald Reagan that he had signed legislation “outlawing the Soviet Union,” adding that, “We begin bombing in five minutes.”  Comments: President Reagan unwisely made this radio gaffe despite serving for over three years as President and after holding the office of Governor of California.   Although he reportedly was emotionally scarred by the November 20, 1983 ABC-TV dramatization of a nuclear war (“The Day After”), with these reckless comments, he nevertheless made light of a possible nuclear world war.  Consider the tasteless jokes, the off-the-cuff or made-in-anger rash public comments, tweets, and unabashedly reckless and/or inaccurate statements made over the last few decades by Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump, a person who has never in his entire life served the public interest in any political office.  Now imagine this individual as Commander-in-Chief of all U.S. armed forces with access to the Nuclear Codes.  Objectively it appears certain that the ongoing risks of accidental, unintentional, inadvertent, or even intentional nuclear war will increase if Donald Trump is elected the 45th President of the United States.  While the Democratic Presidential candidate supports spending $1 trillion over the next thirty years to modernize and expand the U.S. nuclear arsenal and laboratory complex and has made a few objectionable nuclear threats against Iran, the risks of nuclear war increasing are not nearly as high with Hillary Clinton as President as compared to Donald Trump.  (Source:  “Soviet War Alert in August Reported by Japanese Newspaper.”  The Baltimore Sun.  Oct. 2, 1984, p. 4.)

    August 20, 2010 – In a Scientific American article titled, “Laying the Odds on the Apocalypse,” former National Security Agency director Admiral Robert Inman estimated that there was a one in thirty chance of a global thermonuclear war in the next decade in which hundreds of millions of people would die.  An even less optimistic assessment by MIT Professor of Cryptography and Information Theory, Dr. Martin Hellman, placed the odds of such a war at ten percent!  Comments:  Mainstream news media and politicians, especially since the Cold War ended in 1991, predominantly downgrade the odds of a nuclear war and charge those expressing concerns about its likelihood as appeasers or unrealistic peaceniks, but serious thinkers including historians, political scientists, philosophers, and other scientists clearly recognize that time is not on humanity’s side in regards to the nuclear threat.  John Scales Avery, a theoretical chemist and historian of science, Nobel Peace Prize-winning activist, and Associate Professor of Quantum Chemistry at the University of Copenhagen makes a powerful argument along these lines, “The elimination of nuclear weapons is a life or death question.  We can see this most clearly when we look far ahead.  Suppose that each year, there is a certain finite chance of a nuclear catastrophe, let us say two percent.  Then in a century, the chance of survival will be 13.5 percent, and in two centuries, 1.8 percent, in three centuries, 0.25 percent, in four centuries, there would be only a 0.034 percent chance of survival and so on.  Over many centuries, the chance of survival would shrink almost to zero.  Thus, by looking at the long-term future, we can clearly see that if nuclear weapons are not entirely eliminated, civilization will not survive.”

    August 27, 2016 – Approximate date that the initial eight-week long advertising campaign (which began in late June) on 14 King County Metro Transit buses by the local peace group Ground Zero Center for Nonviolent Action publicizing the U.S. Navy’s construction of a new $294 million taxpayer-funded underground nuclear storage complex located just 20 miles west of the city of Seattle will end.  This massive facility will eclipse a similar base with six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) located at Kings Bay in Georgia which houses the SWFLANT (Strategic Weapons Facility Atlantic) storage facility.  The new Strategic Weapons Facility Pacific (SWFPAC) and the eight Ohio-class SSBNs with Trident II nuclear-armed missiles, homeported at the adjacent Bangor Submarine Base, are located just a few miles outside downtown Seattle.  The SWFPAC and the locally based submarines are thought to store more than 1,300 nuclear warheads with a combined explosive power equal to more than 14,000 Hiroshima-sized bombs.  After the New START Treaty requires a downsizing of the submarine missile tubes from 24 to 20, the warhead total will drop to about a thousand.  Nevertheless, this Naval Base Kitsap Complex (the SWFPAC and the Bangor Submarine Base) will remain the largest and most important nuclear weapons base in the U.S. in the ensuring decades.  Comments:  A growing citizen’s movement to substantially reduce and make significant progress toward zeroing out global nuclear arsenals is not only an American phenomenon but a planet-wide one as well.  The newly-elected 45th President of the U.S. will be heavily pressured to not only enforce existing arms control agreements such as the New START Treaty but to push harder for even greater multilateral, bilateral, and unilateral actions that will:  (1) De-alert the hair-trigger alert status of U.S., Russian, Chinese and other nuclear arsenals including Israel’s; (2) Declare a No-First-Use Policy; (3) Ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; (4) Reduce Overseas Basing of Military Forces; (5) Phase-Out Global Nuclear Power By 2030; and enact other changes to realize a truly global peace dividend that was never fully implemented after the Cold War ended in 1991. (Source: Hans M. Kristensen. “Navy Builds Underground Nuclear Weapons Storage Facility; Seattle Buses Carry Warning.” Federation of American Scientists.  June 27, 2016, http://fas.org/blogs/security/2016/pacific-ssbn-base/ accessed July 21, 2016.)

    August 29, 2007 – Six nuclear-armed cruise missiles were mistakenly loaded onboard a B-52 bomber named “Doom 99” at Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota and flown 1,500 miles to Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana and offloaded where they sat unguarded on the tarmac for nine hours.  This incident violated a long-standing rule that live nuclear weapons should not overfly U.S. territory.  Another serious violation of security protocols was the fact that no one noticed the weapons were missing for 36 hours or more.  A February 2008 Defense Science Board report on the incident concluded that investigators found “a basic lack of understanding on the safety and authorization required to handle nuclear weapons.”   Comments:  Many of the thousands of serious violations of security protocols, accidents, and other nuclear weapons incidents involving all nine nuclear weapons states still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny.  These near-nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating global nuclear weapons arsenals.  (Sources: Eric Schlosser.  “Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.”  New York:  Penguin Press, 2013 and U.S. Department of Defense.  Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics.  “The Defense Science Board Permanent Task Force on Nuclear Weapon Surety:  Report on the Unauthorized Movement of Nuclear Weapons.” February 2008. http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/features/defenseReviews/NPR/DSB_TF_on_NWS_Welch_Feb_2008.pdf  accessed July 23, 2016.)

  • July: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    July 1, 1991 – On this date, the Warsaw Pact (established in 1955 as a response to the 1949 establishment of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), also known in the Soviet bloc as The Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance signed by Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and the Soviet Union, formally dissolved as a communist military alliance.  Yet NATO, 1949-present, not only continues to exist but has grown and expanded in order to further “contain Russia and protect former Soviet republics and Eastern European nations from Russian military aggression.”  But from Moscow’s perspective, not just current President Putin but former General Secretary of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev and many other Russians and Western scholars too, this eastern NATO expansion has violated an agreement made during the George H. W. Bush (1989-1993) presidency.  According to long-time Soviet/Russian scholar Professor Stephen Cohen, “President George H.W. Bush and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl made an agreement (May 17, 1990) with General Secretary Gorbachev that if the Soviet Union withdrew its forces from Eastern Europe and East Germany in particular and ended the Warsaw Pact, in return NATO would not expand east.  Gorbachev also allowed the reunification of Germany (September 12, 1990 treaty), and that nation’s inclusion in NATO as long as the Western Alliance would not expand as then U.S. Secretary of State James Baker promised, ‘one inch east.’”  Although a number of other experts say there was no such written agreement or even a so-called “verbal gentleman’s agreement” to circumvent NATO military expansion east (see Steven Pifer.  “Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge?  Gorbachev Says No.” The Brookings Institution, Nov. 6, 2014), the debate continues.  Nobel Peace Prize winner and retired Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s testimony has been used by both sides to argue the case.  In October 2014, Gorbachev stated, “The decision for the U.S. and its allies to expand NATO into the east was decisively made in 1993.  I called this a big mistake from the very beginning.  It was definitely a violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990.”  Comments:  Professor Cohen and a plethora of other anti-nuclear scholars, activists, politicians, experts, and global citizenry are deeply concerned that this expansion (and Russian moves in Ukraine and elsewhere) have substantially increased the risk of nuclear war.  The buildup of NATO forces (including the unprecedented stationing of a German regiment “on the Eastern front”), accompanying Russian countermeasures, and the deployment of tactical nuclear forces by both sides brings the world a step closer to unintentional, accidental, unauthorized, or even intentional nuclear conflict triggered by another “trip wire” like the Ukraine Crisis of 2014-15.  (Sources:  Thom Hartmann. “Why is the Western Media Ignoring the New Cold War? with Professor Stephen Cohen.”  RT.com, June 8, 2016, Maxim Korshunov.  “Mikhail Gorbachev:  I am Against All Walls.” Russia Beyond the Headlines. http://rbth.com/international/2014/10/16/mikhail_gorbachev_i_am_against_all_walls_40673.html, and Editors of the Encyclopedia Britannica.  “Warsaw Pact.” www.britannica.com/event/Warsaw-Pact accessed June 15, 2016.)

    July 9, 1962 – Before the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty, negotiated by President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev and approved by Congress in an amazingly short period of approximately six weeks, outlawed nuclear testing in the atmosphere and in outer space, the U.S. conducted one of five nuclear weapons test explosions hundreds of miles above Earth.  A test, code-named Starfish Prime, was conducted on this date at approximately 240 miles altitude with a magnitude of 1.4 megatons from a Thor missile launched from Johnston Island in the Pacific Ocean.  The atomic blast caused unanticipated electromagnetic pulse (EMP) impacts over a large region knocking out 300 street lights and shutting down telephone lines in Hawaii and damaging six satellites.  Comments:  This incident brings to light a serious concern.  Would the U.S. or other members of the Nuclear Club resist responding with nuclear strikes on nations or subnational entities responsible for exploding nuclear weapons in outer space high above those nations’ territories despite the extensive EMP damage inflicted on e-commerce as well as other elements of the targeted nation’s military and civilian infrastructure?  In the interests of peace and the paramount avoidance of future nuclear escalation and conflicts, not to mention the need for public transparency, the U.S. and other Nuclear Club members should open this matter to public scrutiny and debate in order to seek broad international consensus opposing nuclear retaliation to EMP or other related attacks such as cyberwar infrastructure strikes as clear violations of international and humanitarian law.  (Source:  Phil Plait.  “The 50th Anniversary of Starfish Prime:  The Nuke That Shocked the World.”  Discover Magazine.  July 9, 2012, http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/07/09/the-50th-anniversary-of-starfish-prime-the-nuke-that-shook-the-world/#.V2Ge1eTmqM8 accessed June 15, 2016.)

    July 14, 2015 – The Iran nuclear deal negotiated in the “P5 + 1 Talks” by China, France, Germany, the U.K., U.S., and Russia with the Islamic State was concluded in Vienna on this date and was later approved as “The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” by the U.S. Congress in September.  According to the U.S. Department of State website “Under the agreement, Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98 percent, and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years. For the next 15 years, Iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67 percent.  Iran also agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time. Uranium-enrichment activities will be limited to a single facility using first-generation centrifuges for 10 years. Other facilities will be converted to avoid proliferation risks. To monitor and verify Iran’s compliance with the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities. The agreement provides that in return for verifiably abiding by its commitments, Iran will receive relief from U.S., European Union, and the U.N. Security Council’s nuclear-related sanctions.”  Comments: Statements by presumptive Democratic Party presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (pending the final vote of the Super Delegates on July 25, 2016) over the last decade give cause for concern, especially her nuclear-saber rattling on ABC-TV’s Good Morning America program on April 22, 2008, “…if Iran launched a nuclear attack on Israel, the U.S. would retaliate against the Iranians,”  adding, “In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.”  This criticism comes despite the recognition of the seriousness of Iran’s longstanding public pronouncements to destroy Israel.  More recently at the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) meeting in Washington, D.C., Ms. Clinton stated that, “The U.S. should provide Israel with the most sophisticated defense technology so that it can deter and stop any threats.  That includes bolstering Israeli missile defenses with new systems like Arrow Three and David’s Sling.”  While this statement is much less confrontational and troubling, it does bring up the issue of America’s quiet, covert support of Israel’s nuclear arsenal (numbering 50-300 warheads).  While it is certainly true that publicly the U.S. government has never openly supported an Israeli nuclear capability, it is also true that it has rarely mentioned this issue creating a silent assent to the Jewish State’s arsenal.  However by not acknowledging Israel’s nuclear arsenal, the U.S. can’t ever hope to reduce and eliminate it.  And, inadvertently, by not publicly forcing Israel to acknowledge its existence, it creates a hidden incentive for Iran and other Arab nations to acquire its first nuclear weapon in order to deter Israel, or, in the case of Pakistan, an incentive to enlarge its arsenal to counter both traditional rival India and a potential future rival in Israel.  (Source:  “Hillary Clinton’s AIPAC Speech.” Time.com, March 2, 2016, http://time.com/4265947/hillary-clinton-aipac-speech-transcript accessed June 15, 2016.)

    July 21, 1948 – A top secret Pentagon briefing on the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s future war plans was given on this date.   The briefing discussed Operation Halfmoon, a short-range emergency war plan to prevent Soviet takeover of Western Europe by dropping 50 (a figure later amended to 133) atomic bombs on Soviet cities including eight warheads on Moscow and seven on Leningrad.  Comments:  Over the last 70 years, in addition to false alerts, Broken Arrows and hundreds of nuclear accidents by the members of the Nuclear Club as well as extensive planning for preemptive nuclear war, and related nuclear crises like the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, the NATO Able Archer exercise of November 1983, and the Black Brant Incident of January 1995, the world is extremely fortunate that no nuclear weapons have been used in combat since the two atomic bombings of Japan in August 1945.  (Source:  Eric Schlosser. “Command and Control:  Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.” New York:  Penguin Press, 2013, p. 83.)

    July 25-28, 2016 – One week after the Republican Party’s National Convention is to meet (July 18-21) in Cleveland to select their party’s presidential candidate, the Democratic Party will hold their presidential nominating convention in Philadelphia during these dates. Comments:  While secret presidential policy positions on the seminal political issues confronting the American people won’t become public knowledge until later, the official website of the Democratic Party (https://www.democrats.org) lists just 12 issues and nuclear weapons, the nuclear threat, or reducing the U.S. and/or global nuclear arsenals are not mentioned! Note that under the banner “National Security” are the words, “…modernizing our nuclear arsenal is a top priority.”  And this is consistent with President Obama’s recent commitment (publicly supported by Hillary Clinton) to spend $1 trillion over the next 30 years to modernize our nuclear arsenal by building new nuclear weapons platforms like a new long-range bomber and new cruise missiles.  Also part of this package are new smaller “more usable” nuclear warheads.  The only positive is under the same banner of national security:  “…strengthen our ability to keep nuclear and biological weapons out of the hands of terrorists.”  Although Bernie Sanders has committed to campaigning for Hillary Clinton and he has allegedly done so only after obtaining a promise that the party platform will be far more progressive in scope than that envisioned by mainstream Democrats, even he has not extensively mentioned reducing and eliminating nuclear weapons during his campaign speechmaking.  One of possible many exceptions (as the mainstream media usually has a bias against reporting progressive topics) to this is Sanders’ statement during his April 8, 2016 appearance on The Today Show:  “The goal is to move to get rid of nuclear weapons, not to get into an arms race.  We have other more important things to spend our money on.”  Four years ago, the 2012 Democratic Party Platform did mention “preventing the spread and use of nuclear weapons,” but such platitudes weren’t backed up by actual executive or legislative action during the two terms of the Obama Administration to substantially work toward Global Zero.  For the sake of the planet, human civilization, our species and  countless other creatures living on this Pale Blue Dot, let’s all hope that the 45th  President of the United States and the newly elected Congress will make substantial progress on these critical nuclear issues:  ratifying the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, forging a newly enhanced Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty, eliminating nuclear weapons modernization with the exception of extensive improvements in safeguarding the existing arsenal by enhancing safety protocols until it can be substantially reduced through a new multilateral agreement with Russia, de-alerting the U.S. arsenal in concert with similar Russian moves, phasing out all civilian nuclear power plants globally by 2025-30 with the U.S. military-industrial-complex converting substantially from arms production to nuclear remediation, dismantling, decommissioning and cleaning up thousands of global military and civilian nuclear and related toxic wastes, and other similar tasks.  (Source:  “Bernie Sanders on the Issues.” http://berniesanders.com/issues accessed June 15, 2016.)

    July 28, 1957 – Two of the three Mark V hydrogen bombs on board a U.S. Air Force C-124 Globemaster cargo aircraft, which departed from Dover Air Force Base, were jettisoned from the plane when two of the four engines lost power and the aircraft suffered a significant loss of altitude.  To ensure the survival of the aircraft and its crew, the pilot had no choice but to quickly lessen the weight of the plane by dropping two H-bombs into the Atlantic Ocean.  Thankfully, no nuclear or conventional (of the high explosive charges bracketing the core of the warhead) explosions ensued.  This incident occurred about 100 miles southeast of Naval Air Station, Pomona, New Jersey, where the aircraft landed safely. One bomb is believed to have sunk 50 miles off the coast of Atlantic City and the other 75 miles away from land.  Although the U.S. Air Force, over the years since this incident (and others), claims the bombs did not contain plutonium capsules, many nuclear experts like retired Colonel Derek Duke have pointed out that in November of that same year, SAC Commander General Thomas Powers bragged to the news media that, “Day and night, I have a certain percentage of my command in the air (and the), planes are bombed up and they don’t carry bows and arrows.” Comments:  While it is very unlikely that these long-lost and probably corroded nuclear bombs could detonate in a fusion explosion, there remain deadly serious concerns about very long-term radioactive contamination from this incident and hundreds of other similar Broken Arrows. These nuclear threats can impact human and other species virtually forever unless these devices are found and disposed of properly. After all, the radioactive isotopes found in thermonuclear weapons or in the reactor cores of naval surface ships and submarines lost at sea since 1945 possess an extremely long half-life of decay – 713 million years for uranium-235 and 4.5 billion years for uranium-238!  (Source:  Colonel Derek L. Duke, Retired, “Chasing Loose Nukes.” Dungan Books, 2007, http://www.fdungan.com/duke.htm  accessed June 15, 2016.)

    July 30, 1980 – In an Independent News Alliance article (“Flaws in Systems of Command and Control: Nuclear War by Accident.”) published on this date, Professor Louis Rene Beres noted that a spring 1977 test, code-named Prime Target, of the Pentagon’s World Wide Military Command and Control System found that serious computer problems and failures occurred 62 percent of the time.  These failures included false alerts and incidents of detection of nonexistent Soviet first strike nuclear attacks on the U.S. and/or its allies.  Comments:  While most observers would reasonably assume that much more sophisticated, accurate, and modern high-tech hardware and software has virtually eliminated these problems with the U.S. nuclear command and control system, such an assumption would be in error.  In point of fact, a recent GAO (Government Accountability Office) report released on May 25, 2016 (“Information Technology:  Federal Agencies Need to Address Aging Legacy Systems.”) noted that a Pentagon system used to send and receive emergency action messages for U.S. nuclear forces is running on a 1970s-era IBM computing platform that still requires the use of antiquated eight-inch floppy disks to store data.  Comments:  So it appears that saving money is more important than the safety, security, and reliability of the most dangerous weapons ever invented.  The same was true in 1980 and unfortunately in today’s world.  Because of this revelation and other flaws in the command and control systems of the Nuclear Club members, there remain very credible concerns that an unauthorized, accidental, or unintentional nuclear war could be triggered especially today during the heightened tensions of Cold War II.  (Source: Louis Rene Beres. “Apocalypse:  Nuclear Catastrophe in World Politics.” Chicago and London:  The University of Chicago Press, 1980.)

  • Ten Worst Acts of the Nuclear Age

    The ten worst acts of the Nuclear Age described below have set the tone for our time.  They have caused immense death and suffering; been tremendously expensive; have encouraged nuclear proliferation; have opened the door to nuclear terrorism, nuclear accidents and nuclear war; and are leading the world back into a second Cold War.  These “ten worst acts” are important information for anyone attempting to understand the time in which we live, and how the nuclear dangers that confront us have been intensified by the leadership and policy choices made by the United States and the other eight nuclear-armed countries.

    1. Bombing Hiroshima (August 6, 1945). The first atomic bomb was dropped by the United States on the largely civilian population of Hiroshima, killing some 70,000 people instantly and 140,000 people by the end of 1945.  The bombing demonstrated the willingness of the US to use its new weapon of mass destruction on cities.

    2. Bombing Nagasaki (August 9, 1945). The second atomic bomb was dropped on the largely civilian population of Nagasaki before Japanese leaders had time to assess the death and injury caused by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima three days earlier.  The atomic bombing of Nagasaki took another 70,000 lives by the end of 1945.

    3. Pursuing a unilateral nuclear arms race (1945 – 1949). The first nuclear weapon test was conducted by the US on July 16, 1945, just three weeks before the first use of an atomic weapon on Hiroshima.  As the only nuclear-armed country in the world in the immediate aftermath of World War II, the US continued to expand its nuclear arsenal and began testing nuclear weapons in 1946 in the Marshall Islands, a trust territory the US was asked to administer on behalf of the United Nations.  Altogether the US tested 67 nuclear weapons in the Marshall Islands between 1946 and 1958, with the equivalent explosive power of 1.6 Hiroshima bombs daily for that 12 year period.

    4. Initiating Atoms for Peace (1953). President Dwight Eisenhower put forward an Atoms for Peace proposal in a speech delivered on December 8, 1953.  This proposal opened the door to the spread of nuclear reactors and nuclear materials for purposes of research and power generation.  This resulted in the later proliferation of nuclear weapons to additional countries, including Israel, South Africa, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

    5. Engaging in a Cold War bilateral nuclear arms race (1949 – 1991). The nuclear arms race became bilateral when the Soviet Union tested its first atomic weapon on August 29, 1949.  This bilateral nuclear arms race between the US and USSR reached its apogee in 1986 with some 70,000 nuclear weapons in the world, enough to destroy civilization many times over and possibly result in the extinction of the human species.

    6. Atmospheric Nuclear Testing (1945 – 1980). Altogether there have been 528 atmospheric nuclear tests.  The US, UK and USSR ceased atmospheric nuclear testing in 1963, when they signed the Partial Test Ban Treaty.  France continued atmospheric nuclear testing until 1974 and China continued until 1980.  Atmospheric nuclear testing has placed large amounts of radioactive material into the atmosphere, causing cancers and leukemia in human populations.

    7. Breaching the disarmament provisions of the NPT (1968 – present). Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) states, “Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament….”  The five nuclear weapons-states parties to the NPT (US, Russia, UK, France and China) remain in breach of these obligations.  The other four nuclear-armed states (Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea) are in breach of these same obligations under customary international law.

    8. Treating nuclear power as an “inalienable right” in the NPT (1968 – present). This language of “inalienable right” contained in Article IV of the NPT encourages the development and spread of nuclear power plants and thereby makes the proliferation of nuclear weapons more likely.  Nuclear power plants are also attractive targets for terrorists.  As yet, there are no good plans for long-term storage of radioactive wastes created by these plants.  Government subsidies for nuclear power plants also take needed funding away from the development of renewable energy sources.

    9. Failing to cut a deal with North Korea (1992 to present). During the Clinton administration, the US was close to a deal with North Korea to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.  This deal was never fully implemented and negotiations for it were abandoned under the George W. Bush administration.  Consequently, North Korea withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and conducted its first nuclear weapon test in 2006.

    10. Abrogating the ABM Treaty (2002).  Under the George W. Bush administration, the US unilaterally abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty.  This allowed the US, in combination with expanding NATO to the east, to place missile defense installations near the Russian border.  It has also led to emplacement of US missile defenses in East Asia.  Missile defenses in Europe and East Asia have spurred new nuclear arms races in these regions.


    David Krieger is a founder and president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (www.wagingpeace.org).