Category: Nuclear Threat

  • The Nuclear Weapons Threat to Our Common Future

    David KriegerNuclear weapons are an existential threat to humans and other forms of complex life.  The possibility of nuclear annihilation should concern us enough to take action to abolish these weapons.  The failure of large numbers of people to take such action raises vitally important questions.  Have we humans given up on our own future?  Are we willing to act on our own behalf and that of future generations?

    Nine countries possess nuclear weapons, and the predominant orientation toward them is that they provide protection to their citizens.  They do not.  Nuclear weapons provide no physical protection.  While they may provide psychological “protection,” this is akin to erecting a Maginot Line in the mind – one that can be easily overcome under real world conditions, just as the French Maginot Line was circumvented in World War II, leading to the military defeat and occupation of France by German forces.

    Following a recent test of a nuclear-capable Minuteman III missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, Colonel Craig Ramsey, the flight test squadron commander, commented that “efforts like these make nuclear deterrence effective.”  Perhaps they do so in Colonel Ramsey’s mind, but no one knows what effects such tests have on the minds of potential nuclear adversaries.  We can say with certainty that such tests would not deter terrorists in possession of nuclear weapons, since the terrorists would have no territory to retaliate against.  It should be noted as well that U.S. leaders are generally highly critical of similar missile tests by other nations, and do not view these tests as providing an effective deterrent force for them.

    We know from the damage that was caused by the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki that these weapons kill indiscriminately and cause unnecessary suffering, both crimes under international humanitarian law. Any threat or use of these weapons would be immoral as well as illegal.  Nuclear weapons are also extremely costly and draw scientific and financial resources away from meeting human needs.  As long-distance killing devices, they are also cowardly in the extreme.

    Are those of us living in the most powerful nuclear weapon state sleepwalking toward Armageddon?  Are we lemmings heading toward a cliff?  Are we unable to awaken from a nuclear nightmare?  We must wake up and demand the good faith negotiations for nuclear zero promised in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

    The Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved 30 seconds ahead and now stands at 2.5 minutes to midnight.  We have been warned many times and in many ways.  Yet, we remain stuck at the brink of nuclear catastrophe.  The people need to step back from the brink and insist that their leaders follow them in moving away.

    U.S. nuclear policy puts the future of humanity in the hands of a single leader with the codes to initiate a nuclear war.  Should that leader be unstable, unbalanced, erratic or insane, he or she could initiate a nuclear war that would leave the world in shambles, destroying everyone and everything that each of us loves and holds dear.

    The stakes are very high and the challenge is one we ignore at our peril.  I encourage you to join us at the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation in working to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons, a world we can be proud to pass on intact to our children, grandchildren and all children.

  • February: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    February 2, 1962 – Although the Soviet Union’s first underground nuclear test actually occurred on October 11, 1961, on this date the first Soviet underground nuclear explosion was detected by U.S. military authorities.  Initially considered a clandestine way to hide the exact specifications of test warheads, underground nuclear testing by both the U.S. and Soviet Union became accepted and even promoted as an alternative to space-based and particularly atmospheric nuclear testing which spread radioactive strontium-90 over the entire surface of the planet and was found as a contaminant in the teeth of children worldwide.  The Limited Test Ban Treaty negotiated by President John F. Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, which entered into force on Oct. 10, 1963, relegated nuclear tests solely to underground sites.  Comments:  The testing of over 2,050 nuclear devices over the last seven decades by the nine nuclear weapons states has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations especially native peoples.  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people today due to nuclear testing.  Since an ever growing global network of hundreds of extremely sensitive seismic monitoring stations has made nuclear test cheating impossible, President Trump should recommend that the Senate ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) at the earliest possible opportunity.  (Sources:  Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information, 2002, p. 10 and Thomas B. Cochran, William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Milton M. Hoenig.  “Nuclear Weapons Databook, Volume IV.”  National Resources Defense Council, Inc.  Cambridge, MA:  Ballinger Publishing Co., 1987, p.5.)

    February 10, 2015 – An article published on this date in the Rutland Herald newspaper authored by Susan Smallheer, was titled, “Strontium-90 Detected in Vermont Yankee Well Water.”  The article noted that test results by the Vermont Department of Health in conjunction with The Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Oak Ridge Laboratory confirmed that the volatile cancer-causing isotope strontium-90 was detected in water wells at the Entergy Corporation’s Vermont Yankee nuclear plant in the underground plume between the reactor building and the Connecticut River, a water source that had been previously contaminated with radioactive tritium in 2010.  Although the water test samples were taken in August before the plant was shut down permanently in December of 2014 and the commissioner of the state health department, Dr. Harry Chen, claimed the presence of 3.5 pico curies per liter of strontium-90 was less than half the drinking water standard of eight pico curies per liter per day and NRC Spokesman Neil Sheehan claimed that new tests showed only one pico curie per liter, there is little doubt that a number of dangerous radioactive toxic contaminants have been and are now definitely leaking from not only Vermont Yankee but also from most if not all of the operating or recently decommissioned global civilian nuclear reactors of which there are over 400.  The bad news for Vermont Yankee reactor neighbors is that the entire facility will not be completely dismantled and decontaminated for as long as five decades from now according to Dr. Chen.  Comments:  In addition to the dangerous risk of nuclear reactor accidents like Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, the tremendously out-of-control civilian and military nuclear waste sequestration, remediation, and permanent storage conundrum as well as the terrorist targeting potential, the economic unsustainability of civilian nuclear power, and the potential for nuclear proliferation points logically to an accelerated phase-out of global civilian nuclear power plants over the next decade.  President Donald Trump should embrace this proposal and announce it publicly in his first 100 days in office along with a strong commitment to reduce and eliminate coal and other fossil fuel energy sources that increase global warming while subsidizing accelerated government and corporate green energy solutions in order to combat climate change.  (Source:  http://www.recorder.com/home/15625872-95/strontium-90-detected-in-vt-yankee-well-water accessed Jan. 15, 2017.)

    February 14, 1967 – A treaty prohibiting the research, development, and production of nuclear weapons in Latin America, the Treaty of Tlatelolco, was signed on this date.  Eventually all 33 nation-states in the region, including Cuba, acceded to the treaty which entered into force on April 22, 1968.  The treaty included two protocols that allowed both nuclear weapons states and those countries with territories in the region to participate in the regime.  In effect, this treaty created a nuclear-weapons-free-zone (NWFZ) in the region as did later agreements in other areas of the world such as the August 6, 1985 Raratonga Treaty, which established a South Pacific NWFZ, the December 15, 1995 Bangkok Treaty, which mandated a Southeast Asia NWFZ, and the April 11, 1996 Pelindaba Treaty, which created an African NWFZ, and hundreds of municipal NWFZs in a number of global cities including several in the United States.  Comments:  The growing global campaign to significantly reduce and eliminate nuclear arsenals, which has helped expand an ever-growing zone of nuclear-weapons-free regions, suffered a symbolic setback recently when President Donald Trump not only argued for expanding and growing the U.S. nuclear weapons inventory but also expressed the desire to see non-nuclear states such as South Korea and Japan develop their own doomsday weapons.  In addition, hoped for NWFZs in the Mideast and Southwest/Southern Asia became less likely due to Donald Trump’s rhetoric, agreed to by Republican leaders in the newly sworn in 115th Congress, about terminating the Iran nuclear deal.  (Source:  Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information, 2002, pp. 1-4.)

    February 20, 2016 – A team of U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command airmen from the 91st Missile Wing at Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota and the 625th Strategic Operations Squadron at Offutt, AFB, Nebraska aboard the Airborne Launch Control System, in coordination with the 576th Flight Test Squadron (FLTS), launched an unarmed LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM equipped with a test reentry vehicle, that would in wartime carry one or more nuclear weapons, from Vandenberg AFB, California 4,200 miles to impact the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands despite the long standing opposition of the government of that territory led by Foreign Minister Tony de Brum to continued violations of their sovereignty by such tests and consistent with a series of Nuclear Zero lawsuits filed in the International Court of Justice in The Hague starting in October 2014 by that government against the nuclear weapons states to convince those nations to end the nuclear arms race.by committing to nuclear disarmament as they agreed to in Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).  One week later, the U.S. conducted yet another such nuclear test launch.  Comments:  The official U.S. rationale for decades of continuing tests of its ICBM-based nuclear arsenal as representing, “a visible message of national security which serves to assure our partners and dissuade potential aggressors,” as stated by the 576th FLTS commander Colonel Craig Ramsey, rings quite hollow when we consider that the U.S. itself has never enacted a policy of No First Use of nuclear weapons.  Therefore, regular ICBM testing ensures that a U.S. nuclear first strike remains a viable offensive capability – making nuclear warfare a more likely eventuality.  The same is true for Russia, China and the other nuclear weapons states.  (Source:  “Minot Tests Minuteman III.” U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command – Office of Public Affairs, Feb. 22, 2016 http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/670572/minot-tests-minuteman-iii accessed Jan. 13, 2017.)

    February 23, 1981 – Despite rhetoric by right-wing Cold Warriors including representatives of the Committee on the Present Danger like President Reagan’s U.N. Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick and ultra-conservative scholars in the late 1970s and early 1980s such as Leon Sloss, Richard Pipes, and others that believed that the Soviet Union planned to fight and win a nuclear war with the United States, the comments that Soviet Premier Leonid Brezhnev made at the 26th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party argued against such irrationality, then and now, “To try and outstrip each other in the arms race or to expect to win a nuclear war is dangerous madness.”  Comments:  Nonetheless, Russia, China, other nuclear powers, the U.S., and its nuclear-armed allies, especially the administration of President Donald Trump, building on a decision made by former President Barack Obama, have announced plans to spend trillions of dollars, pounds, rubles, etc., to modernize their nuclear arsenals and prevail in a nuclear arms race.  Madness, indeed.  (Sources:  Marilyn Bechtel, David Laibman, and Daniel Rosenberg, editors.  Full Text of “Peace, Plan and Progress:  The 26th Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.”  A New World Review Collection.  New York:  NWR Publications, Inc., 1981.  https://archive.org/Stream/PeacePlanAndProgress/Peace%20and%20Progress_djvu.txt accessed Jan. 19, 2017 and Jerry Wayne Sanders.  “Peddlers of Crisis:  The Committee on the Present Danger and the Politics of Containment.”  Cambridge, MA:  South End Press, 1983.)

    February 26, 1950 – Manhattan Project physicist, Hungarian-born Leo Szilard informed listeners at a University of Chicago Roundtable broadcast on NBC Radio for the first time about a potential doomsday scenario that scientists might one day construct – a global arsenal of very large naval ship-sized cobalt-60 nuclear weapons that could irradiate the world and wipe out the human race.  Comments:  While there is no evidence that such a doomsday weapon (dramatized in the Stanley Kubrick black comedy film Dr. Strangelove) was ever constructed, the Soviet Union did create a system known as Perimeter or Dead Hand which became operational in the early to mid-1980s to ensure that if Soviet leadership was suddenly, like a bolt out of the blue, decapitated, killed in a surprise nuclear attack on the Kremlin, that the entirety of the Soviet nuclear arsenal could still be launched automatically either by subordinate commanders or by an automated electronic command and control system.  Comments:  This set of facts only strengthens the argument that during the Cold War, and unfortunately also today during Cold War II, humanity has been extremely fortunate that a nuclear war has not been triggered due to inadvertent, accidental, unintentional, or irrational circumstances.  Before our species’ luck runs out, it is imperative that all nine nuclear weapons states drastically reduce and eliminate global nuclear arsenals at the earliest date possible.  (Sources:  Samuel Upton Newtan.  “Nuclear War I and Other Major Nuclear Disasters of the 20th Century.  Bloomington, Indiana:  Author House, 2007, pp. 37-38 and Nicholas Thompson. “Inside the Apocalyptic Soviet Doomsday Machine.”  Wired.  Sept. 21, 2009.  https://www.wired.com/2009/09mg-deadhand/ accessed Jan. 19, 2017.)

  • We Must Not Demonize and Threaten Russia

    Eisenhower’s warning

    In his famous farewell address, US President Dwight Eisenhower eloquently described the terrible effects of an overgrown military-industrial complex. Here are his words:

    “We have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions…. This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence, economic, political, even spiritual, is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government…[and] we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.

    “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”

    In another speech, he said: “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.”

    The devil’s dynamo

    The military-industrial complex involves a circular flow of money. The cash flows like the electrical current in a dynamo, driving a diabolical machine. Money from immensely rich corporate oligarchs buys the votes of politicians and the propaganda of the mainstream media. Numbed by the propaganda, citizens allow the politicians to vote for obscenely bloated military budgets, which further enrich the corporate oligarchs, and the circular flow continues.

    Today the world spends more than 1.7 trillion dollars ( $1,700,000,000,000) every year on armaments. This vast river of money, almost too large to be imagined, is the “devil’s dynamo” driving the institution of war. Politicians notoriously can be bought with a tiny fraction of this enormous amount; hence the decay of democracy. It is also plain that if the almost unbelievable sums now wasted on armaments were used constructively, most of the pressing problems now facing humanity could be solved.

    Because the world spends almost two thousand billion dollars each year on armaments, it follows that very many people make their living from war. This is the reason why it is correct to speak of war as an institution, and why war persists, although we know that it is the cause of much of the suffering that inflicts humanity.

    We know that war is madness, but it persists. We know that it threatens the survival of civilization, but it persists, entrenched in the attitudes of historians, newspaper editors and television producers, entrenched in the methods by which politicians finance their campaigns, and entrenched in the financial power of arms manufacturers, entrenched also in the ponderous and costly hardware of war, the fleets of warships, bombers, tanks, nuclear missiles and so on.

    The military-industrial complex needs enemies

    The military-industrial complex needs enemies. Without them it would wither. Thus at the end of the Second World War, this vast power complex was faced with a crisis. It was saved by the discovery of a new enemy: Communism.

    This new enemy saved the military-industrial complex for a long time, but at the end of the Cold War, there was another crisis: the threat that arms profits would be converted into a  “peace dividend.” Would this be the end of unlimited corporate greed? Heaven forbid! There was a desperate search for a new enemy. What about Islam? The Crusades could be revived, and all would be well. This seemed, for a long time to be a good solution.

    But recently, with the Middle East in flames, Islam no longer seemed to be a sufficiently strong enemy justify the colossal budgets of armaments industries. A new enemy was urgently needed. One  look at our mass media tells us the solution that our military-industrial complex has come up with: Revival of the Cold War!

    Nuclear war by accident or miscalculation

    As a consequence of our oligarchy’s decision to revive the Cold War, we are witnessing increasing demonization of Russia as well as flagrant provocations, such as the recent massive NATO maneuvers on Russia’s borders.

    With unbelievable hubris and irresponsibility, western politicians are risking the destruction of human civilization and much of the biosphere through a thermonuclear war. Such a cataclysmic war could occur through technical or human error, or through escalation. This possibility is made greater by the fact that despite the end of the Cold War, thousands of missiles carrying nuclear warheads are still kept on a “hair-trigger” state of alert with a quasi-automatic reaction time measured in minutes.

    A number of prominent political and military figures (many of whom have ample knowledge of the system of deterrence, having been part of it) have expressed concern about the danger of accidental nuclear war.

    Colin S. Grey, Chairman of the US Institute for Public Policy, expressed this concern as follows: “The problem, indeed the enduring problem, is that we are resting our future upon a nuclear deterrence system concerning which we cannot tolerate even a single malfunction.”

    General Curtis E. LeMay has written, “In my opinion a general war will grow through a series of political miscalculations and accidents rather than through any deliberate attack by either side.”

    Bruce G. Blair  of the Brookings Institute has remarked that “It is obvious that the rushed nature of the process, from warning to decision to action, risks causing a catastrophic mistake.”… “This system is an accident waiting to happen.”

    The duty of civil society

    Civil society must make its will felt. A thermonuclear war today would be not only genocidal but also omnicidal. It would kill people of all ages, babies, children, young people, mothers, fathers and grandparents, without any regard whatever for guilt or innocence. Such a war would be the ultimate ecological catastrophe, destroying not only human civilization but also much of the biosphere. Each of us has a duty to work with courage and dedication to prevent it.

    Some suggestions for further reading:

    Europe Must Not Be Forced Into a Nuclear War with Russia

    http://www.countercurrents.org/avery170715.htm

    https://act.rootsaction.org/p/dia/action3/common/public/?action_KEY=12514

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article44904.htm

    Caring for the Future of Our Children

    http://www.truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/feed-the-people-before-building-fighter-planes

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46211.htm

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46209.htm

    Trump, the Banks and the Bomb

    Donald Trump’s New Nuclear Instability

  • The Most Dangerous Period in Human History

    David KriegerIt is terrifying to think of Donald Trump with the codes to launch the U.S. nuclear arsenal.  Ironically, Trump himself may be the single best argument anyone could make for why the world should abolish nuclear weapons.  The mix of Trump and nuclear weapons is a formula for making his term in office the most dangerous period in human history.

    Trump tweets from the hip, like a crazy man.  When he tweets or speaks, he often muddies the waters.   His aides spend much of their time trying to calm the fears he raises in his compulsive tweeting.

    He has tweeted, “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.”  It is not likely that he will be the person to lead the world in coming to its senses.

    He sought to clarify this tweet by telling MSNBC television host Mika Brzezinski, “Let it be an arms race…we will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.”

    The world does not need another nuclear arms race, triggered by macho threats from Trump.  Imagine him in John F. Kennedy’s place during the Cuban Missile Crisis.  Such a crisis under Trump could result in a civilization-ending nuclear war.

    Trump is erratic, impulsive, narcissistic, thin-skinned, and generally ignorant on nuclear and foreign policy issues.  He needs restraints on his personality pathologies, if the world is to survive his presidency.

    What can be done to keep Trump’s fingers away from the nuclear button?

    Before leaving office, President Obama could order that all weapons in the U.S. nuclear arsenal be taken off high alert status, so that it would take hours or days to launch rather than only a few minutes.  This would decrease the possibility of an impulsive or accidental launch of U.S. nuclear weapons, while still maintaining an invulnerable submarine-launched nuclear deterrent force.

    Further, President Obama could order that the U.S. adopt a “No First Use” policy related to its nuclear arsenal.  Such a policy would be in line with U.S. values, and most Americans believe that this is already U.S. policy.

    These acts by President Obama would show people in the U.S. that there is another way forward that is safer and more secure than threatening nuclear strikes.  Many people of the world outside the U.S. already know there is a better way forward that does not require preparing for massive nuclear retaliation and spending $1 trillion over the next three decades to modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal.  That better way forward is to negotiate for the phased, verifiable, irreversible and transparent elimination of nuclear weapons.

    The American people must add their voices, calling for such policies, as well as U.S. leadership in fulfilling the obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to negotiate in good faith for an end to the nuclear arms race and for nuclear disarmament.

    The American people must make it clear to Mr. Trump that they will support him in taking steps to abolish nuclear weapons and to bring peace to the planet, but will oppose efforts on his part to strengthen and expand the U.S. nuclear arsenal and pursue a new nuclear arms race.

    Vaya aquí para la versión española.

  • January: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    January 1, 1992 – It was not only a New Year but it seemed like a new century as the almost fifty-year Cold War, which began in 1946, ended.  The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, the Velvet Revolutions against Soviet-imposed communism in Eastern Europe in 1989-90, the ending of the Warsaw Pact Soviet-Eastern European military alliance in February 1991, and finally the Christmas Day 1991 dissolution of the U.S.S.R, all seemingly meant that peace was at hand.  In 1991, global nuclear arsenals totaled around 58,300 warheads.  A quarter century later, in January of 2017, there remain roughly 15,375 nuclear warheads (Russia with 7,300 and the U.S. with 6,970, respectively, which represent 93 percent of the global arsenal) of which 4,200 are deployed with operational forces with about 1,800 warheads on a hazardous hair-trigger alert status and ready to be used on short notice, including a shocking number of doomsday weapons deployed by both NATO and Russia near the borders of the former Soviet Union.  Comments:  Surprisingly, despite all the myriad of other global problems facing humankind (climate change, the largest number of war refugees since World War II, growing international as well as domestic terrorism, overpopulation, poverty, a growing gap between rich and poor, and many other concerns), the risks of nuclear war are not significantly lower today than they were during the Cold War.  While it has been 20 years since Cornell University astrophysicist, cosmologist, and world-renowned science-popularizer Carl Sagan passed away, his warning about the nuclear threat is as relevant in 2017 as it was more than 25 years ago:  “On our small planet, at this moment, we face a critical branch point in history.  What we do with our world right now will propagate down through the centuries and powerfully affect the destiny of our descendants.  It is well within our power to destroy our civilization and perhaps our species as well.  If we capitulate to superstition, greed, or stupidity, we can plunge our world into a darkness deeper than the time between the collapse of classical civilization and the Italian Renaissance.  But we’re also capable of using our compassion, our intelligence, our technology, and our wealth to make an abundant and meaningful life for every inhabitant of this planet.” (Sources:  Hans Kristensen and Stan Norris. “Status of World Nuclear Forces.”  Federation of American Scientists, 2016 http://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/ and The Carl Sagan Portal.  http://carlsagan.com accessed Dec. 16, 2016.)

     

    January 11, 2007 – An extensive study, designated JSR-06-335, paid for by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration and conducted by the contract firm the MITRE Corporation of McLean, Virginia titled “Pit Lifetime” was released on this date.  A group of nuclear weapons experts in the JASON Program Office including Freeman Dyson and Sidney Drell as well as other employees of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) concluded that their multi-year assessment of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile showed, “no degradation in performance of primaries (plutonium pits) of stockpile systems due to plutonium aging that would be a cause for concern regarding their safety and reliability.  Most primary types have credible minimum (author’s emphasis) lifetimes in excess of 100 years…”  Comments:  In addition to the fact that dramatic reductions and the eventual elimination (sooner than later is highly recommended due to the ongoing and increasing daily risk of nuclear war) of global nuclear arsenals is supported by the vast majority of humanity, this JASON study is still relevant today as it casts extreme doubt on the current Obama and future Trump administration’s imperative to modernize and improve the reliability of the nuclear arsenal.  While many Pentagon, DOE, and civilian hawks criticized this 2007 study, most U.S. Department of Energy staffers, as well as the former director of LANL, Harold Agnew, agreed with the conclusions.  The JASON scientists also concluded that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) would not negatively impact nuclear weapons safety and reliability.  Therefore, in order to prevent wasting hundreds of billions of dollars, if not more, as well as protecting Americans and global populations from the detrimental health and environmental impacts of renewed nuclear testing, the 45th President of the United States should strongly recommend to the newly sworn-in Congress that:  (1) U.S. nuclear modernization be severely curtailed or even eliminated (except for relatively inexpensive steps to make the arsenal safer and more protected from hacking threats) and (2) that the U.S. join the majority of world nations by having the Senate ratify the CTBT in the first 100 days of his administration.  (Source:  JASON Program Office.  “Pit Lifetime.” MITRE Corporation, JSR-06-335, Jan. 11, 2007 http://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/pit.pdf accessed Dec. 17, 2016.)

     

    January 13, 1975 – A New York Times article, “Air Force Panel Recommends Discharge of Major Who Challenged Failsafe System,” published on this date, discussed an incident in 1973 when a U.S. nuclear missile launch control officer-in-training, Major Harold L. Hering, asked one of the seminal questions in the history of the human species – what the U.S. Air Force considered a forbidden question – “How can I know that an order I receive to launch my missiles came from a sane president?”  Comments:  The order, like all military orders to blindly and unquestioningly obey a superior’s command authority without any reservation whatsoever, to launch genocidal nation-destroying, nuclear winter-species threatening Armageddon-causing weapons represents the very fundamental foundation of the nuclear deterrence assumption – a supposedly ultra-rational, unerring means of preventing the U.S., Russia, China, or other nuclear powers and their allies from ever facing wholesale destruction at the hands of a foreign enemy.  The massive and extremely hazardous flaws in this system, which has almost failed too many times to count (if we include hundreds or thousands of nuclear incidents and accidents which narrowly triggered accidental or unintentional nuclear warfare), have been written about and debated extensively for over seventy years – and have been dramatized in many books and films including Fail Safe and Doctor Strangelove and other works.  It’s clearly an open secret to the vast majority of humanity that deterrence will eventually fail catastrophically resulting in unintentional megadeath on an unforeseen scale and most probably the end of human civilization if not the entire species.  Global citizenry are increasingly verbalizing opposition to this state of affairs by stating most forcefully, “We’re mad as hell and we’re not going to take it anymore.”  There is an ever growing global consensus that nuclear arms threaten everyone and that this situation must be reversed before it is too late.  (Source:  Ron Rosenbaum.  “How the End Begins:  The Road to a Nuclear World War III.”  New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011.)

     

    January 14, 2017 – Eighteen months ago on July 14, 2015, the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany (P5 + 1), and the European Union announced an agreement with Iran that is commonly referred to as the “Iran nuclear deal,” a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action  endorsed by over 70 global nonproliferation experts to lift sanctions on that nation in return for an Iranian commitment to curtail their nuclear enrichment activities and significantly eliminate the risk that the Islamic Republic would be able to build a nuclear weapon for at least ten years or more.  In September of 2015, a Republican-controlled Congress approved this international agreement.  The November 8, 2016 election of Republican Donald Trump as president put the first nail in the coffin of the Iran nuclear deal, and the second major blow to the agreement was President-elect Trump’s selection of Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-KS) as CIA Director.  Pompeo has stated that, “I look forward to rolling back this disastrous deal…”  Current CIA Director John Brennan called this potential move a mistake.  He warned Trump that scrapping the agreement with Iran would undermine U.S. foreign policy, embolden hardliners in Iran and threaten to set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and Southwest Asia.  Brennan said, “I think it would be the height of folly if the next administration were to tear up that agreement.”  Comments:  Even if the U.S. withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal, it is unlikely that the agreement will also be scuttled by all or most of the other signatories.  America will become an international pariah again, ironically along with hardline Iranian advocates of an accelerated nuclear program.  Nonproliferation will also suffer a significant setback and the risk of a regional nuclear conflict involving Iran, Israel, or possibly India and Pakistan will increase substantially.  Trump-supported Israeli air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities could spur a wider regional war and increase the risk of not just more terrorism but of nuclear terrorism with the U.S. and Israel as the most likely targets.  (Sources:  U.S. Department of State.  “Nuclear Agreement With Iran.” July 14, 2015 http://www.state.gov/p/nea/p5/ and Dan Bilefsky.  “CIA Chief Warns Donald Trump Against Tearing Up Iran Nuclear Deal.”  New York Times. Nov. 30, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/world/americas/cia-trump-Iran-nuclear-deal.html?smid=fb-n… both accessed December 19, 2016.)

     

    January 21, 1968 – A fire that broke out in the navigator’s compartment of a U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber, carrying four Mark-28 nuclear bombs each with a yield of 1.1 megatons, caused the crew to quickly eject before the aircraft crashed at a speed of 600 miles-per-hour impacting seven miles southwest of Thule Air Base onto the ice of North Star Bay in Greenland, a Danish possession.  High explosives jacketing the nuclear warheads and their plutonium pits detonated on impact igniting an estimated 225,000 pounds of jet fuel which triggered a catastrophic fire that burned over an area of three square miles.  Extreme weather conditions made comprehensive recovery and decontamination of the crash zone impossible.  Nevertheless, an extremely large volume of contaminated ice and debris (that eventually filled 147 freight train cars and represented an estimated 237,000 cubic feet of material) was flown back to the Atomic Energy Commission facility in Aiken, South Carolina and buried while bomb fragments were recycled at the Pantex facility in Amarillo, Texas.  This incident spurred massive protests in Denmark as the Danish government had forbidden U.S. deployment of nuclear weapons on its territory.  Comments:  Many of the hundreds if not thousands of nuclear accidents, involving all nine nuclear weapons states, still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny which potentially threatens the health and well-being of large numbers of people.  These near-nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating an estimated 15,375 warheads in existing global nuclear arsenals.  (Sources:  The Center for Defense Information.  “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Accidents:  Dangers In Our Midst.”  The Defense Monitor, Vol. 10, No. 5, 1981. http://www.nukestrat.com/us/CDI_BrokenArrowMonitor1981.pdf accessed Dec. 17, 2016 and Eric Schlosser.  “Command and Control:  Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.”  New York:  Penguin Press, 2013.)

     

    January 24, 1946 – The very first resolution of the newly created United Nations General Assembly, passed on this date, called for the elimination of atomic weapons. Over the ensuring seven decades, hundreds of other U.N. resolutions have addressed the global threat of nuclear weapons and nuclear power.  Last October at the U.N. General Assembly First Committee for Disarmament, 123 nations, including amazingly North Korea, voted to support negotiations in 2017 to prohibit and ban nuclear weapons just as the vast majority of world nations in the past made biological and chemical weapons’ production and use illegal.  Unfortunately in this vote, the United States joined Israel, Russia, the U.K., France, the NATO countries (with the exception of The Netherlands which abstained due to grassroots public lobbying), Australia, South Korea, and Japan in a bloc of 38 opposing nations.  Surprisingly, China joined non-NPT nuclear weapons states Pakistan and India in a group of 16 abstaining nations.   All nine nuclear weapon states, unfortunately, did vote as a bloc to boycott a special U.N. Open Ended Working Group for Nuclear Disarmament held in the summer of 2016.  Comments:  The vast majority of global populations (including many that live in the nine nuclear weapons states) and nation-states have recognized the urgent imperative of eliminating nuclear weapons or at least reducing global nuclear stockpiles below the nuclear winter threshold with the utmost timeliness and speed.  Every day we delay this essential prerequisite to continued human survival, we risk the unthinkable – the first use of nuclear weapons in combat since 1945, the first-ever use of genocidal thermonuclear weapons against human populations, and the triggering of an unprecedented global catastrophe – nuclear war.  It is an extremely slippery slope to argue that a “small” bunker-busting nuclear weapon used against underground Iranian or North Korean nuclear facilities will not be the tripwire that opens the door to the use of other types and sizes of nuclear weapons by other nation-states or actors.  Once Pandora’s Box is opened, it may be too late to save our global civilization and the human species.  Former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon presented a forceful argument against the nuclear deterrence “blinders” employed by nuclear weapons states and their allies in a 2013 speech in Monterey, California, “I urge all nuclear-armed states to reconsider their national nuclear posture.  Nuclear deterrence is not a solution to international peace and stability.  It is an obstacle.  The longer we procrastinate, the greater the risk that these weapons will be used, will proliferate, or be acquired by terrorists.  But our aim must be more than keeping these weapons from “falling into the wrong hands.”  There are no right hands for nuclear weapons.”  (Source:  United Nations General Assembly.  Resolution UNGA 1, 24 January 1946 and Alice Slater.  “Seeking Nuclear Disarmament in Dangerous Times.”  In Depth News. Nov. 28, 2016.)

  • December: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    December 2, 1942 – A group of Allied physicists led by Enrico Fermi achieved the first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction in a makeshift laboratory constructed on a squash court under the west stands at the University of Chicago Stadium.  Thirty-one months later, the top secret U.S.-funded and directed Manhattan Project successfully tested a 15-20 kiloton nuclear device, code-named Trinity, on July 16, 1945 near Alamogordo, New Mexico.  Despite protests from some scientists, military leaders, and government officials, the first use of nuclear weapons in combat occurred when U.S. B-29 bombers dropped a 15 kiloton uranium-fueled nuclear bomb on Hiroshima on August 6 and a plutonium-fueled 21 kiloton bomb on Nagasaki killing and injuring hundreds of thousands of predominantly civilian victims.  Comments:  Thus began the nuclear arms race which still continues today to threaten humanity with extinction.  The man who originally convinced President Franklin Roosevelt in a 1939 letter to deter a possible Nazi German A-bomb with one of our own, may have said it best, “Humanity is going to require a substantially new way of thinking if it is to survive.”  (Source:  Randy Alfred. “Dec. 2, 1942:  Nuclear Pile Gets Going.”  Wired.com. Dec. 2, 2010.  https://www.wired.com/2010/12/1202nuclear-milestones/ accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 8-9, 2014 – As a result of concerns by a group of nation-states attending the 2010 NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) Review Conference of “the catastrophic humanitarian consequences that would result from the use of nuclear weapons,” the last of three conferences (the first was in Oslo, Norway on March 4-5, 2013 and the second was in Nayarit, Mexico on Feb. 13-14, 2014) on the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons was held on these dates in Vienna, Austria.  The Vienna Conference, as well as the other two meetings, produced a wealth of fact-based materials about the horrendous short- and long-term globally detrimental impact of even so-called “limited” nuclear war on individuals, societies, and the global common.  The meeting also generated valuable legal analyses, building on seven decades of international humanitarian legal protections, that characterize the use of nuclear weapons as illegal and utterly unjustifiable.  One of the most valuable concrete results of the Vienna Conference was the crafting of The Humanitarian Pledge for the prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons which was adopted as U.N. General Assembly Resolution 70/48 on December 7, 2015 with 139 nations approving, 29 opposing, and 17 abstaining.  Comments:  Before leaving office, President Barack Obama should take a cue from President Kennedy’s creation of the ExComm (Executive Committee) to deal with the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 and create an Executive Committee to Address the Environmental Crises of Global Climate Change and the Growing Threat of Nuclear Weapons to meet once or twice a week to brief the President on policies and actions to mitigate and work towards a resolution of these catastrophic trends.  The President should staff this committee with not only his Chief of Staff and main political advisors but more importantly with several scientific experts such as astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson, environmentalists such as Bill McKibben, and prominent bipartisan/nonpartisan retired political statesmen and women like President Jimmy Carter, and former Secretary of State George P. Schultz.  The committee’s charter will mandate the Committee’s continuance after President Obama steps down on January 20, 2017 as a permanent nonprofit organization (which would also mandate absolutely no corporate funding or donations)  meeting in public settings once or twice a month at revolving sites such as the Carter Center in Atlanta and at locations outside the United States as well.  Each meeting will also include a number of local experts and community activists.  The nuclear threat and climate change are the main issues facing humanity in the 21st century and much more time, money, brain power, and focus needs to be harnessed to address these global crises.  (Sources:  Patricia Lewis, Beyza Unal, and Sasan Aghlani.  “Nuclear Disarmament:  The Missing Link in Multilaterialism.” The Royal Institute of Chatham House, International Security Department, October 2016 and “The Vienna Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons.”  8-9 December 2014.  https://ww.bmeia.gv.at/en/european-foreign-policy/disarmament/weapons-of-mass-destruction/nuclear-weapons-and-nuclear-terrorism/vienna-conference-on-the-humanitarian-impact-of-nuclear-weapons/ accessed on Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 10, 1967 – As part of the Operation Plowshare program created by the Atomic Energy Commission (now known as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) to explore “peaceful” uses of nuclear weapons as initiated by President Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace December 8, 1953 plan, a 29 kiloton nuclear device code-named Gasbuggy was detonated 60 miles from Farmington, New Mexico on this date.  The purpose of the blast was to learn whether a small underground nuclear explosion would stimulate the release of natural gas trapped in dense shale deposits.  Initially the test was considered a success until it was discovered that the immense volume of gas produced was highly radioactive and therefore unusable.  Unfortunately, the contaminated gas was vented and flared which released radioactive krypton-85 into the atmosphere.  In addition, groundwater was contaminated with other radioactive elements such as strontium-90.  Comments:  Thankfully this was one of the last Atoms for Peace test explosions, however nuclear testing has continued for decades and the U.S. has signed but not ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.  This appears unlikely during the Donald Trump presidency with a Republican-controlled Congress.  The testing of over 2,000 nuclear devices over the last seven decades has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations especially native peoples.  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people to this day due to nuclear testing.  (Source:  Colonel Derek L. Duke as told to Fred Dungan.  “Chasing Loose Nukes.”  Dungan Books, 2007, pp. 10-11.  http://www.fdungan.com/duke.htm accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 12, 1952 – The NRX nuclear research reactor at Chalk Point Laboratories in Ontario, Canada suffered a partial meltdown after a power surge caused some fuel rods to rupture and melt which resulted in a flood of millions of liters of radioactive water spilling into the reactor building’s basement.  A young U.S. naval officer serving in the nuclear submarine service, James (Jimmy) Earl Carter, the future 39th President of the United States, was charged with directing a unit of nearly two dozen sailors to stabilize the reactor and begin cleaning up the highly radioactive contamination.  Carter and each member of his team limited themselves to only a few seconds of exposure during their forays into the reactor building.  Nevertheless, the President noted in a 2008 interview that, “They let us get probably a thousand times more radiation than they would now.  We were fairly well instructed then on what nuclear power was but for about six months after that I had radioactivity in my urine.”  Decades later in August of 2015, doctors removed a cancerous mass from the President’s liver.  He was also diagnosed with a form of melanoma that was discovered on parts of his brain which required him to undergo radiation treatments and immune-based therapy.  During his presidency, Jimmy Carter had to deal with the March 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear accident.  President Carter recognized the importance of addressing the nuclear threat as he promised to work toward the elimination of nuclear weapons during his inaugural address and his administration worked with the Soviets to negotiate and sign the SALT II Treaty.  In his December 10, 2002 Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech, President Carter said, “…we will not learn how to live together in peace by killing each other’s children.  The bond of our common humanity is stronger than the divisiveness of our fears and prejudices.  God gives us the capacity for choice.  We can choose to alleviate suffering.  We can choose to work together in peace.  We can make these changes and we must.”  Comments:  In addition to the dangerous risk of nuclear reactor accidents like Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, the tremendously out-of-control civilian and military nuclear waste sequestration, remediation, and permanent storage conundrum, as well as the terrorist targeting potential, the economic unsustainability of civilian nuclear power, and the potential for nuclear proliferation points logically to an accelerated phase-out of global civilian nuclear power plants over the next decade.  President Barack Obama should publicly announce this initiative and begin to launch this phase-out before he leaves office.  (Sources:  Arthur Milnes.  “Jimmy Carter’s Exposure to Nuclear Danger.” CNN.com, April 5, 2011.  http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/04/05/milnes.carter.nuclear/ and Clyde Hughes.  “Jimmy Carter:  Didn’t Say Cancer is Cured, Treatment Continues.”  The Wire. Jan. 26, 2016.  http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/jimmy-carter-cancer-treatment/2016/01/26/id/710859/ both accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 20, 1993 – The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) issued Directive 5230.16 “Nuclear Accident and Incident Public Affairs Guidance” that mandated a Pentagon policy of neither confirming nor denying the presence or absence of nuclear weapons on U.S. naval vessels which reinforced the fact that two years after the Cold War ended, military secrecy, particularly regarding nuclear weapons, was as tight-lipped as ever, if not becoming even more restrictive.  Journalists and nuclear experts had been clamoring for years for more information on all manner of U.S. and allied nuclear weapons incidents, but despite the passage of decades of time and the demise of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact Soviet military alliance, the Pentagon was not forthcoming.  DoD Public Affairs officers continued to point to a minimalist list of 32 nuclear accidents and incidents that was released in 1980.  Nevertheless Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests, which can take as long as several years for the Pentagon to respond to (and sometimes the response is negative, due to existing or upgraded secrecy classification protocols), have seen just one branch of the armed services – the U.S. Navy – release details of 381 nuclear weapons incidents that occurred between 1965 and 1977.  Comments:  Many of the hundreds if not thousands of nuclear accidents, involving all nine nuclear weapons states, still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny.  These near-nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating an estimated 15,500 warheads in existing global nuclear arsenals.  (Source:  http://www.abovetopsecret.com accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 22, 1983The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, a publication founded in 1945 by Manhattan Project scientists who “could not remain aloof to the consequences of their work,” moved the hands of the Doomsday Clock, which has tracked humanity’s proximity to Nuclear Armageddon since 1947, from four minutes to three minutes to Midnight.  The moving of the clock’s hands was necessitated by ever growing tensions in U.S.-Soviet relations spurred by actions by both superpowers.  Examples included President Ronald Reagan’s announcement on March 23, 1983 of the “Star Wars” (SDI – Strategic Defense Initiative) system, a greatly accelerated land- and space-based effort to intercept the overwhelming majority of Soviet ICBMs before they impacted U.S. targets.  This plan threatened the relatively stable nuclear deterrence system and convinced the Soviet leadership that the U.S. actually intended a huge defensive buildup to allow them to escape relatively unscathed after a Soviet counterstrike to a suspected American first strike attack plan.  The Soviets later heightened tensions by shooting down Korean Airlines Flight 007 near Sakhalin Island on September 1, 1983.  Comments:  With the election of Donald Trump, the first president without any government or military experience, as the 45th Commander-in-Chief, it seems extremely possible that the Doomsday Clock may be advanced to its historic high of two minutes until Midnight as experienced from 1953-60.  During the past year of campaigning, President-elect Trump has expressed a profound and frightening ignorance on the nuclear threat best exemplified by his shocking query, “Why can’t we use nuclear weapons?” Even the fact that 50 leading Republican national security experts warned in an open letter published this past September that Trump possesses “dangerous qualities in an individual with command of the U.S. nuclear arsenal,” did not dissuade the American electorate from selecting Donald Trump as president.  One can only hope that President Trump will follow the pattern of Cold War hawk President Ronald Reagan who for decades talked of destroying Soviet communism but eventually proclaimed publicly that “a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought,” and talked openly with Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev of eliminating nuclear weapons entirely.  (Sources:  The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists website.  http://thebulletin.org/background-and-mission-1945-2016 and Ira Helfand and Robert Dodge.  “Op-Ed:  Should We Let An Unstable Person Have Control of the Nuclear Arsenal? No, But That’s Not The Right Question.”  Los Angeles Times. Sept. 23, 2016.  http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-helfand-dodge-nuclear-weapon-question-2016-september-23 both accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

  • November: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    November 3, 1945 – Before the creation of the CIA, the National Security Council or even the OSS (Office of Strategic Services), the American Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), founded at the onset of U.S. entry into World War II with the task of producing intelligence reports for the Pentagon’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), was working on critical estimates involving the military capabilities and future intentions of the Soviet Union.  Based on a number of studies that concluded that Soviet ideology promoted inevitable conflict between Soviet and non-Soviet nations, the Joint Intelligence Committee reports convinced the JCS of dire Soviet military intentions against the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Asia.  On this date, a new JIC estimate, JIC-329, focused on Soviet vulnerability to a limited attack with nuclear weapons.  The estimate identified 20 industrial cities in the U.S.S.R., including Moscow, Gorki, Leningrad, Tashkent, Tbilisi, and Baku, that should be targeted for atomic destruction in an effort to blunt a Red Army offensive in Europe or Asia.  JIC-329 was the basis for the earliest known of many subsequent nuclear war plans against the Soviet Union and its allies.  Comments:  Unfortunately, seven decades into the Nuclear Age, there is little doubt that U.S., Russian, and other military establishments continue to devise ever more sophisticated and extensive planning and practice for the unthinkable – nuclear warfighting in a frighteningly large array of scenarios.  Meanwhile, every hour, day, week, month, and year, the risk of nuclear war imperceptibly increases.  Nuclear Armageddon is inevitable unless we resolve to end this insanity by eliminating once and for all these doomsday weapons.  (Source:  Larry A. Valero.  “The American Joint Intelligence Committee and Estimates of the Soviet Union, 1945-47.”  Studies in Intelligence (Unclassified Edition), No. 9, Summer 2000, pp. 65-80.)

     

    November 9, 1934 – Today is the birthdate of Carl Sagan (who passed away on Dec. 20, 1996), a U.S. astronomer, astrophysicist, a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, cosmologist, science communicator (he produced and wrote the popular Cosmos PBS-TV series which first aired in 1980) who was a consultant and advisor to NASA since the 1950s.  He also helped guide and direct the Mariner, Viking, Voyager, and Galileo robotic space missions.  This David Duncan Professor of Astronomy and Space Sciences and Director of the Laboratory for Planetary Studies at Cornell University, made seminal contributions to the study of planetary atmospheres, planetary surfaces, the history of the Earth and exobiology and his list of international scientific and humanitarian honors is too long to list here.  Dr. Carl Sagan received the NASA Medal for Distinguished Public Service twice and was a recipient of the Public Welfare Medal from the National Academy of Sciences for “distinguished contributions in the application of science to public welfare.”  Perhaps most importantly, Dr. Sagan along with four other scientists – R.P. Turco, O.B. Toon, T.P. Ackerman, and J.B. Pollack – conducted extensive unprecedented research (reported in a December 23, 1983 article published in the journal Science, titled, “Nuclear Winter:  Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions”) on the global atmospheric and climate impacts of nuclear war.  Their discovery, which has been expanded and explained in more detail over the decades by many other similar scientific analyses, was that the explosion of as few as 100-200 nuclear weapons during a period of a day or so, would inject extremely large amounts of dust and smoke into the Earth’s upper atmosphere causing substantial reductions in light and temperature levels triggering a “nuclear winter.”  This previously unexpected impact of nuclear warfighting would substantially increase the magnitude of nuclear war deaths in a so-called “limited war” (100-200 explosions) and possibly lead to human extinction in an extensive all-out global nuclear war (a 5,000 megaton war).  Comments:  Carl Sagan was also one of the most prominent and vociferously outspoken proponents of ending the nuclear arms race and he spent quite a bit of his valuable time publicizing his views on this and other global threats to humanity.  In a Cosmos episode entitled, “Who Speaks for Earth?” Dr. Sagan expounded magnificently on this and related topics which are, of course, still very relevant today, “The global balance of terror, pioneered by the United States and the Soviet Union, holds hostage all the citizens of the Earth…The hostile military establishments are locked in some ghastly mutual embrace.  Each needs the other, but the balance of terror is a delicate balance, with very little margin for miscalculation.  And the world impoverishes itself by spending a trillion dollars a year on preparations for war and by employing perhaps half the scientists and high technologists on the planet in military endeavors.  How would we explain all this to a dispassionate extraterrestrial observer?  What account would we give of our stewardship of the planet Earth?  From an extraterrestrial perspective, our global civilization is clearly on the edge of failure in the most important task it faces – preserving the lives and well-being of its citizens and the future habitability of the planet…Nuclear arms threaten every person on the Earth.  Fundamental changes in society are sometimes labeled impractical or contrary to human nature – as if nuclear war were practical or as if there was only one human nature.  But fundamental changes can clearly be made – we’re surrounded by them…The old appeals to racial, sexual, and religious chauvinism and to rabid nationalist fervor are beginning not to work.  A new consciousness is developing which sees the Earth as a single organism and recognizes that an organism at war with itself – is doomed!  We are one planet.  Our loyalties are to the species and the planet.  We speak for Earth.  Our obligation to survive and flourish is owed not just to ourselves, but also to that Cosmos ancient and vast from which we spring.” (Source:  The Carl Sagan Portalhttp://www.carlsagan.com/ accessed October 15, 2016.)

     

    November 10, 1950 – Enroute from a Canadian air base at Goose Bay to Davis-Monthan Air Force Base near Tucson, a U.S. Air Force B-50 Superfortress bomber, carrying a U.S. Mark IV nuclear bomb that had previously been secretly deployed in Canada, developed engine trouble near Riviere-du-Loup, Quebec and was forced to jettison the 5 ½ ton nuclear weapon at 10,500 feet altitude approximately 300 miles northeast of Montreal.  The crew set the bomb to self-destruct at 2,500 feet as it dropped over the St. Lawrence River.  The conventional blast of the bomb’s high-explosive shaped charges disturbed thousands of area residents and scattered nearly 100 pounds of radioactive uranium (U-238) used in the weapons’ tamper over a large area.  Thankfully, the bomb’s plutonium core or “pit” had been removed.  The aircraft made an emergency landing at a U.S. base in Maine.  But the U.S. Air Force covered up the incident explaining it away as the military practice explosion of a 500-pound conventional bomb.  This secret Broken Arrow was not revealed until the 1980s.  Comments:  Many of the hundreds, if not thousands of nuclear accidents involving all nine nuclear weapon states still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny.  These near- nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating global nuclear weapons arsenals.  (Sources:  “Broken Arrows: Nuclear Weapons Accidents.”  AtomicArchive.com. http://atomicarchive.com/Almanac/Brokenarrows_static.shtml accessed Oct. 13, 2016 and Robert S. Norris, William M. Arkin, and William Burr. “Where They Were.” The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. November/December 1999.)

     

    November 19, 1985 – In their first face-to-face meeting in Geneva, President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev spoke about moving beyond their nations’ mutual mistrust and suspicions of the past to begin a new stage of U.S.-Soviet relations.  Mr. Gorbachev stressed the need for ending the nuclear arms race while President Reagan expressed his concern about Soviet intentions in the Third World.  Later though at a dinner with Gorbachev and his wife, the President did acknowledge the importance of the nuclear issue as one that “would unite all the peoples of the world.”  Comments:  While both leaders at the later October 1986 Reykjavik, Iceland Summit spoke publicly about the need to eliminate nuclear weapons, the military-industrial complex in both nations circumvented these leaders’ desire to negotiate a nuclear abolition treaty.  President Reagan died in June of 2004 but Mikhail Gorbachev, today at age 85, is still concerned that renewed Cold War tensions have brought the world to “a dangerous point.”  On Oct. 10, 2016, Gorbachev criticized both the Obama and Putin administrations for their rhetoric over Syria, the U.S. suspension of talks with Russia regarding a Syrian ceasefire, Putin’s announcement that Russia was withdrawing from a bilateral arms control agreement aimed at reprocessing weapons-grade plutonium, and U.S. support of continued military deployments in NATO countries near Russia’s western border.  The 1990 Nobel Peace Prize winner said that, “It is necessary to return to the main priorities.  These are nuclear disarmament, the fight against terrorism, the prevention of an environmental disaster.  Compared to these challenges, all the rest slips into the background.” (Sources:  Roland Oliphant.  “Mikhail Gorbachev Warns World Is At ‘Dangerous Point’ Amid U.S.-Russian Face-Off Over Syria.”  The Telegraph.  Oct. 10, 2016  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/gorbachev-warns-world-is-at-dangerous-point and  Svetlana Savranskaya and Tom Blanton. “The Gorbachev File:  National Security Archive Briefing Book No. 544.”  Document-07, (“Dinner Hosted by the Gorbachevs in Geneva”) Nov. 19, 1985, http://nsaarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB544-The-Gorbachev-File-85th-Birthday/ both accessed Oct. 13, 2016.)

     

    November 20, 2013 – An Associated Press story by Robert Burns titled, “Nuke Troubles Run Deep,” summarized a new Rand Corporation study on the performance levels of U.S. Air Force officers assigned to duties relating to nuclear warfighting.  The news was not good.  The Rand report found that overall these officers suffered low job satisfaction and very high rates of “burnout.”  The study also found unusually high rates of court martials in the ICBM force, 129 percent higher in 2011 than the previous year and, just a year later, 145 percent higher in 2012 than in the Air Force as a whole.  One nuclear warfighter reportedly was quoted as saying, “We don’t care if things go properly, we just don’t want to get in trouble.”  Comments:  The combination of human fallibility juxtaposed with the most destructive weapons ever invented yields unfortunately very dire consequences not only for America but for the entire human species as well.  This is why a dramatic and swift reduction and eventual elimination of nuclear weapons must be the top global priority.  Continuing delays in addressing this global imperative are not only irrational but omnicidal.  (Source:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20131120/us-nuclear-missteps/ accessed Oct. 13, 2016.)

     

    November 24, 1961 – When all communications links, including a number of seemingly redundant ones, between the U.S. Strategic Air Command (SAC) and NORAD suddenly and inexplicably went dead, cutting SAC off from three early warning radar stations in England, Greenland, and Australia, the only explanation possible, it was reasoned, was that a full-scale Soviet nuclear first strike had begun.  As a direct result, all SAC bases were put on high alert and nuclear-armed B-52 bombers scrambled and prepared to counterattack the Soviet Union with hundreds of megatons of nuclear weapons.  Luckily, the order for World War III to begin was never given when it was ascertained that the allegedly redundant communication circuits all ran through one relay station located in Colorado.  The cause for the communication breakdown was the overheating of a single motor.   Comments:  Such false alarms are still possible today although technological verification is more sophisticated and supposedly more foolproof.  It is still true however that the very short response times in nuclear crises, make accidental, unintentional, or unauthorized nuclear warfare a frighteningly real possibility now and in the future.  That is why short of the elimination of all nuclear weapons arsenals, a crucial preliminary step is for the nuclear weapons states to de-alert these doomsday weapons, making it impossible to fire these civilization-destroying devices for at least 72 hours during which time it is hoped that rational minds will circumvent such a catastrophe.  (Sources:  “Seven Close Calls in the Nuclear Age.”  Mental_Floss.com http://mentalfloss.com/article/25685/7-close-calls-nuclear-age accessed Oct. 13, 2016 and Eric Schlosser.  “Command and Control:  Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.”  New York:  Penguin Press, 2013.)

     

    November 26, 1991 – Britain exploded the last of 45 nuclear weapons ending a forty-year period (1952-1991) of testing at the U.S. Nevada Test Site on this date.  Nuclear testing by Britain and other nuclear weapons states (which continues today by North Korea) of more than 2,000 nuclear devices has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations, especially native peoples.  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people to this day due to nuclear testing.   The United Kingdom signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) the same day as the United States on Sept. 24, 1996 but unlike the U.S., which has failed to ratify the agreement, the U.K., like most global nations, ratified the CTBT on April 6, 1998.  Recently the United Nations Security Council voted almost unanimously (14 affirmative votes and one abstention) to pass a U.S. draft resolution calling on all nation states to end nuclear weapons testing and to expedite the final ratification of the CTBT.  Ironically, the U.S. and a bloc of 44 nuclear capable nations including China, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan (but not Russia, the U.K, and France) are holding up the permanent end of nuclear testing.  The Republican-controlled Congress has consistently opposed ratification (despite overwhelming evidence that hundreds of global sensing stations have credibly eliminated the possibility of hiding a clandestine nuclear blast) since the U.S. Senate narrowly rejected CTBT ratification by a vote of 51-48 on Oct. 13, 1999.   Even today, some Republicans are so adamantly against the CTBT that they have threatened to prevent the authorization of about $37 million annually that the U.S. contributes to the organization that administers the treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, which represents about a quarter of its budget.  Comments:  The citizenry of the United States and the global community, in the last days before the Nov. 8th presidential election, can still pressure President Obama, the Congressional leadership, and other key U.S. political figures, as well as the newly elected 45th President, to make CTBT ratification a top priority in the current or newly sworn-in Congress, along with nuclear de-alerting, ending the Global War on Terrorism (the longest war in U.S. history which, if it continues, increases the risks of nuclear terrorism over the long-term), phasing out civilian nuclear power by 2025, and converting the U.S. energy grid from fossil fuels and nuclear power to green energy in the next 10 to 15 years.  (Sources:  Jack Mendelsohn and David Grahame, editors.  “Arms Control Chronology.”  Washington, DC:  Center for Defense Information, 2002, pp. 15, 22, 24 and Kambiz Foroobar.  “U.N. Adopts U.S.-Drafted Plea for Stalled Nuclear Test Treaty.”  Bloomberg.com, Sept. 23, 2016,  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-23/un-adopts-u-s-drafted-plea-for-stalled-nuclear-test-treaty accessed Oct. 13, 2016.)

  • Assessing the Alarming Lack of Progress by Noam Chomsky

    This is the transcript of a talk given by Noam Chomsky at the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation’s symposium “The Fierce Urgency of Nuclear Zero: Changing the Discourse” on October 24, 2016. The audio of this talk is available here. For more information about the symposium, click here.

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    I have a few reflections on the alarming lack of progress since David ended with one of his eloquent poems. Maybe I’ll begin with one of my favorites. Unfortunately, I don’t have the exact words, so it won’t have the proper eloquence. But it’s brief and succinct enough so I can make the point in simple prose. The poem is called something like “A Lesson in History”, and it mentions three dates: August 6th, 1945, Hiroshima; August 8th, 1945, the announcement of the Nuremberg Tribunals; August 9th, 1945, Nagasaki. Nothing else to be said. That does tell us something about the alarming lack of progress, in this case in understanding our own actions and their consequences. And it should remind us that we’re very lucky, very fortunate, in that we are in the most powerful country in world history, its actions will shape significantly what happens in the future, and also a country which is one of the most free in world history, which means we have enormous opportunities to address the crucial issues that confront the human species, and they are beyond anything that has arisen in the past.

    Well, turning to lack of progress, lack of progress may not be a strong enough phrase. David’s word “regress” is more to the point. It’s hard to disagree with William Perry, who pointed out in his recent book that by 2011, in his words, “The US and Russia began a long backward slide.” As he points out at that time, the new START Treaty, which was indeed finally implemented, was so politically contentious that Obama decided not to offer the comprehensive test-ban treaty for ratification. That’s a big step backwards. Russia has since been engaged in a massive nuclear armaments program, general armaments program. It includes ICBMs with MIRVs, very dangerous nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles, and many other extremely dangerous weapons. The US is undertaking modernization, as you know, the trillion dollar, 30-year modernization program. Along with new missiles that are understood to be particularly dangerous because they’re small and can be scaled down for battlefield use, tactical nuclear weapons, which is an incitement to escalation of a very enormous threat.

    And events on the ground are particularly threatening, primarily at the Russian border, where it’s becoming really ominous. Accidents could lead to sudden escalation. Syria is another flash point, and there are others. India/Pakistan is one of the most severe. The Kashmir crisis has been escalating, and no serious proposals for resolving it. Open The New York Times this morning, and you’ll see Prime Minister Modi’s warnings about a sharp, Indian reaction to any Pakistani-based terrorist attack, which is likely. And at the border, up in the high Himalayas, there’s one of the most ridiculous wars that has ever happened. It’s captured very nicely in a comment by Arundhati Roy, which I should have looked up so I could quote it exactly, but what she describes as 12,000 feet up in the mountain, the glaciers are melting, threatening the water supply for India and Pakistan, and as the glaciers melt, you see the detritus of the battles that they’re fighting there, over nothing. The helmets, arms, skeletons, and so on.

    It’s reminiscent of Borges’s comment on wars, which are like two bald men fighting over a comb, except this one is a lot more serious. This is an indication of significant wars that could be just on the horizon. Water wars. India/Pakistan’s a striking case. Or simply imagine what the consequences will be when tens of millions of people are fleeing out of the coastal plains of Bangladesh. Where are they going go? What’s going to happen to them? Take a look this morning at the dismemberment of the Calais Jungle. What’s going to happen when it’s not thousands, but tens of millions? And that’s coming very soon, unless we do something about it. The circumstances that lead to potential conflict are growing and are frightening and, in many ways, I think that’s the most alarming lack of progress, the lack of attention to try and do something about these things, which is shocking. There are disappointments, like the recent ICJ, rejection of the Marshall Islands claim, but as David pointed out, it’s not all grim. It was a virtually split decision and on narrow technical grounds, not getting to the substance, and there are many avenues to pursue at the UN as well, as we just heard, that’s a very important initiative and it’s kind of shocking that it… I don’t think it’s even made the press, as far as I know.

    One of the most important initiatives underway should be known by everyone, should have massive public support, which could possibly lead to a modification of the US position, or at least mitigation of the US position of extreme hostility to what could be a historic decision of the UN. Now, there’s a crucial lack of progress, and in, maybe, ways regress in other significant areas. Steps towards abolition can’t, as we all know, can’t be just click of your fingers. There have to be many avenues pursued. And one of the most significant of them, I think, which doesn’t receive the attention it deserves, is the development of weapons, nuclear weapons, WMD-free zones in various parts of the world which restricts the possibility of conflict. They’re not air-tight, of course, but they are steps forward. There is one in the Western hemisphere which, of course, excludes the United States and Canada.

    There’s one in the Pacific, which for a long time was impeded by France, which insisted on carrying out nuclear weapons tests in the French possessions. But more recently, it’s blocked by the United States, which insists on nuclear weapons positioning and nuclear submarines passing through the US Pacific Islands. So the Pacific WMD-free zone can’t really be implemented. There’s one for Africa, but it’s also, for the moment, impeded by the United States because the US insists on a major military base in Diego Garcia. A nuclear base, one which is in fact used… It’s been used extensively in the bombings in Central Asia. And it’s been built up very sharply under the Obama administration, again with very little attention. So that blocks the Africa zone.

    But the most important of all, by far, is the Middle East. Now, that’s where there certainly should be significant efforts to impose a nuclear weapons free zone and it’s… There’s no reason… Among the major states, the most importance, with one exception, the obvious exception, the states in the region are strongly in favor of it. Iran is in the lead, in fact, in pressing to try to establish a WMD-free zone in the region. That’s in its position as head of the non-aligned movement, which has taken a very strong stand on that. The Arab states are all in favor of it. In fact, they initiated it back in 1995. It was Egypt and other Arab states that initiated the call for a WMD-free zone. It comes up every five years in the NPT review sessions, every time the US blocks it, most recently in 2015, under Obama, just simply blocked the steps towards moving, towards establishing this.

    Now that’s extremely significant. For one thing it threatens the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The commitment of the Arab states to the NPT is conditioned, explicitly, on moves to establish a WMD-free zone in the region. And it’s kind of striking that the US… And of course the reason the US blocks it is totally obvious, it’s to protect Israel’s nuclear weapons system from inspection, and that’s such a high priority here that the government is willing to threaten the NPT, the most important arms control treaty that exists. That’s very serious, nothing talked about it and which is again the, what David called the “terrible silence” that is the worst form of lack of progress.

    Incidentally, for anyone who took seriously the hysteria about Iranian nuclear weapons, the easiest, simplest way to eliminate whatever threat one believes might exist would be simply to accept the Iranian proposal to move towards a verifiable nuclear weapons-free zone. Not discussed for reasons we know; incidentally, the Iranian deal was, I think, a step forward, but we should bear in mind that the concept of an Iranian threat was hardly credible, and the idea that we should put… If you read US intelligence reports, they say… The reports to Congress, they do point out that there’s a potential danger of Iranian nuclear weapons if they ever develop them. Namely, they could be a deterrent. They could be a deterrent. And the US and Israel cannot tolerate a deterrent. If you want to use force freely, you can’t have deterrents. That’s the Iranian nuclear threat, such as it is. These are all things that we should… Everyone should know.

    Another step backwards is continuing, Israel’s a case in point, but continuing support for the three nuclear weapon states that have refused to join the NPT, Israel, Pakistan, and India, all of which developed their nuclear weapons with considerable US support. In the case of India, since Bush, not before. Case of Pakistan, primarily under Reagan. The administration pretended that they didn’t know that Pakistan was developing nuclear weapons, though everyone outside of the Beltway could see it quite clearly. Bush number two changed the policy towards India, and it continues. Just last June, Obama authorized six new nuclear reactors in India. These are called peaceful, but we all know that the transition from nuclear power to nuclear weapons under contemporary technology is not very great. And furthermore, subsidizing Indian nuclear power simply allows them to divert resources to their nuclear weapons program, which is extremely dangerous, primarily because of the India/Pakistan conflict. But also because of what is likely to happen when tens of millions of people from Bangladesh start to flee because they’re drowning. What happens then?

    These are serious issues. All of this ends by… It all combines on the matter of lack of awareness, lack of public awareness. It’s striking that there’s nothing today like the huge anti-nuclear movement of the early ’80s, enormous movement, some of the biggest mobilizations in history. And they had an effect. They had a significant effect on modifying US policy, leading ultimately to the Reagan/Gorbachev agreements, which were a significant step forward and were followed by many years of pretty sharp reduction in nuclear weapons, other positive steps; some steps backward, but general progress, up until the turning point in 2011, when we started going backwards again. There’s no such popular mobilization today. The election’s going on, nothing being said about it. And worse, no popular mobilization to try to force something to be said about it.

    There are some encouraging signs. So you all read, I’m sure, the leaked discussion between Hillary Clinton and several of the prominent donors, and others, in which… She’s a politician, she’s telling the audience what they want to hear, but it doesn’t matter. What she said was not insignificant. She did question… Said we have to raise questions about the modernization program, not just authorize it. And she, specifically, opposed the worst part of it, the development of these smaller nuclear weapons which can be scaled down to battlefield use. Well, there’s two possible reactions to that disclosure. One of them is silence. The other would be popular mobilization to keep her feet to the fire, make press to get the government, assuming she wins the election, to move forward on the programs that she claims, at least, that she’s committed to.

    Now that can have an effect. It has had in the past. It often can again. Well, as you know the reaction was silence. It appeared, no comment, disappeared, just like the UN proposal will be voted on, probably no comment, maybe not even a report, and it’ll disappear, unless there is popular mobilization. That’s the major element of alarming lack of progress, in many ways, regression, and an indication of the basic work that we all have to be dedicating ourselves to.

  • Overcoming Geopolitical Obstacles to Nuclear Zero by Daniel Ellsberg

    This is the transcript of a talk given by Daniel Ellsberg at the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation’s symposium “The Fierce Urgency of Nuclear Zero: Changing the Discourse” on October 24, 2016. The audio of this talk is available here. For more information about the symposium, click here.

    ellsberg

    I think each speaker has, understandably, started by saying what a privilege it is to be here. Let me define that privilege as I feel it, very much very specifically. I don’t believe, in my lifetime, I have been in a discussion group for one day or two days with as many knowledgeable people about nuclear war, nuclear policy, nuclear. If others have been more fortunate, fine. But I see this as a group that is unprecedented for me, and I’m 85. Just saying… A question of age here. We were just a little interested. Noam is the senior person here at 87, I have a senior here, six months more than I am, I’m 85. How many people here are over 64? Okay. You were 10 years old at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, which I’d say is close to being old enough, and if you’re 70, you’d be 16. That was the last time the American people were conscious of being close, possibly close, to nuclear war. If you’re under that… Let’s say if you’re under 25, you were born after the Cold War, the first Cold War. They’re going to see another one. The people who are in college now are going to understand what ‘Cold War’ means. I’m sorry, ’cause we’re on the way, if we’re not in it already.

    But they have no consciousness of what the first one meant, they couldn’t have. My understanding of… I think that the American public’s understanding and elite’s understanding of nuclear war is almost non-existent. When somebody mentioned earlier whether they knew the difference between an A-bomb and an H-bomb, I’ve asked many audiences that over the year. And I expect to get one, two or three people out of 500 or 1,000 who know that difference. In other words, they know almost nothing. So, let me ask, why aren’t the young involved in this? No American government and no other government has ever taken an effort to educate its people, and that includes non-nuclear states, as well. Eisenhower actually went through a brief period, in the very first months of his administration, on an op… What he called Operation Candor. Capital C-A-N-D-O-R, Candor. It was 1953, we had just tested a thermonuclear weapon in the last days of the Truman administration, having decided not to postpone that ’til Nixon. And he was actually tempted to tell people that the group worked on it in the White House, actually. On telling them of what fallout meant and what difference it made to have H-bombs over A-bombs.

    I think Steven pointed out on your picture the difference is a thousand. In 1954, the first droppable H-bomb was tested. It was one thousand times the Hiroshima weapon. Very few people have a sense of what that means, or what it means right now, that India and Pakistan don’t have H-bombs, and will shortly if testing resumes, which many Republicans and others have been favoring for a long time, and what difference that would make. And I’ll go into that in just a moment. So, that’s sort of not knowing the first thing about the situation we’re in today. I was actually, I have to say, physically dizzy and fainting from the last two talks today by Steven and Hans. Not because I was unfamiliar, I am one of those who actually did know probably most, though far from all, of what each of them had to say. But seeing it all together in one place, and as of today, I was fainting. And the reason was this. Here’s something where I differ from the other people here, who are comparably knowledgers to me, but I’m the one who was part of the problem. No one else here, I suspect, has to think about or deal with the fact that they were on the side of the nuclear arms race at any point in their lives.

    But I wasn’t just, say, designing nuclear weapons, which I know nothing about, or looking at weapons effects specifically. I’m not a scientist, I was an economist. I’m not a scientist. My work was on war plans. And what I was hearing was, “It’s back.” The insanities that I was dealing with, insanities that I was dealing with at that time, and was part of, are coming back. And let me make a little distinction there, my job was to try to somehow edge away, or more than edge away, from the insanities of the Eisenhower war plans. And I was to devise new… I was given the job under the Secretary of Defense McNamara to do new guidance for the operational war plans, that would be a major, major revision of the Eisenhower plans. Which I won’t even take time… I’ve sent my manuscript, by the way, to everybody here. I didn’t expect any of you to have time in the couple of weeks to really look at it. I’m going to talk about a couple of things today that actually aren’t yet dealt with that much in the book. But you will get in the chapters the nature of the Eisenhower proposals. And you know, it was mind-boggling.

    And yet I’ve come to realize that the plans that I, and later, the Kennedy administration worked on, were infeasible modifications of the Eisenhower plan. The actual experience of a nuclear war would’ve been virtually unchanged then and now from the Eisenhower plans, mad as they were. And the subtitle to my book might be the title in the end, Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner, started out in my mind as somewhat ironic, an attention-catcher. But as I worked along, realized no, they’re real confessions. I have more to confess of being on the wrong track and taking too long to learn it and so forth. They really are confessions. Now, I do think that that background, when I say that I see it coming around again, is based on a understanding of what nuclear weapons were and have been for that is shared by most anti-nuclear activists or specialists, few of whom I think have had real exposure to the actual plans. They’ve heard about them, but they haven’t actually held a plan in their mind or been part of it and so forth. For instance, the word “deterrent” was and is deliberately ambiguous and little understood by most people.

    The purpose of US nuclear war plans and preparations has always been primarily, and at first exclusively, to deter conventional attack by communist forces, by US first-use of nuclear weapons. Let’s remember that between ’45 and ’49, late ’49, when there were plans, nuclear war plans. We had a monopoly which we expected to continue. It was not to deter a Soviet nuclear attack, they didn’t have any and they weren’t expected to for quite a while. And actually, they were slower than we expected to build up their stockpile, especially when it came to ICBMs, but even early on. So that as long as a decade into the nuclear era, we had close to a monopoly. Not literally a monopoly after ’49, but something close to a monopoly. That’s where our policies and our planning were based on that period, essentially where we did not have to fear, especially in the US, putting aside Europe later, but for the US we didn’t have to fear a nuclear weapon landing on us, any more than when we firebombed Tokyo we had to worry that we would be firebombed in return. It was not an issue. And by the way, the plans were started in a period when the initial A-bombs did not, of which we had a very limited stock, again we had three by the end of the month, maybe 10 by the end of the year, did not affect the level of destruction we were already inflicting on Japan.

    Oppenheimer and the others did not expect the first A-bomb to kill as many people as Tokyo in March 9th and 10th, and it didn’t come close. So it wasn’t changing the level of destruction, it was simply a more efficient, cheaper way of doing it with one bomb instead of 300 bombers, but we had 300 bombers and we were using them every day, so it wasn’t changing. And really, the level of expected casualties in Europe or Russia or anywhere, did not reach World War II levels in our estimation. And none of you… That really hasn’t come out very much, what the expectations were. But I can tell you that as late as the early 50s, even mid 50s, you were talking about 15 or 20 million, big figure. But compared to 60 million dead in World War II, so you haven’t gone beyond World War II. From one year to the next in the planning, the casualties went from 15-20 million to 150 million and 200 million, up by 10 times. The mega-tonnage went up much more than that, but for a variety of reasons the damage is in proportional. But you’re going up to hundreds of millions instead of tens. Now that’s something different.

    Okay, the purpose, though, what was the purpose of those weapons? The purpose was almost exclusively to deter. We weren’t anxious to fight, except for a very few individuals. Curtis LeMay was probably correctly perceived as having wanted to get rid of the… Final solution to the Soviet problem, to the communist problem. And there were a few others like that, but they could be named mostly in the Air Force on a hand or two hands, something like that. No, it was to deter. To deter by exterminating the Soviet Union, by the ability to do it. Now, Dick mentioned that… Dick Faulkner, just now, that the Soviets perceive us, and most people, maybe we perceive us, as the one country that’s actually used these weapons. I wish that were true. Actually, we’ve used them dozens of times and to some degree continuously ever since 1945, and some other countries have, too. Why do you think Israel or Pakistan have gotten nuclear weapons, so as not to use them? They are using them the same way we’ve used them every year we’ve had them, which is the way you use a gun when you point it at someone’s head in a confrontation, whether or not you pull the trigger.

    You are using the gun and you could not make that threat whether it’s successful or not if you didn’t have it. And we’re not pointing it. It’s been very conspicuously on our holster on our side. Which, as USAF, as Air Force will point out, is a continuous use. And so it is, indeed. So, that use has been not only by the United States. I’ve been recently reading stuff from the Soviet archives now that’s come out in the last 20 years, and realized, for example, that Khrushchev believed that his threats in Suez, which I must say I thought at the time, everybody thought were ridiculous and may have been ridiculous, he believed it got the Suez War ended. So, he used it over Kuwait, a crisis which I’m sure almost none of you are aware of. The so-called Lebanon-Iraq crisis in Kuwait. Khrushchev made nuclear threats then, as he did later after the Bay of Pigs, which looked pretty ridiculous. And it was certainly bluffs, except that the Soviet specialists say now, “But he believed they worked.” And that encouraged him, then, as soon as he got ICBMs, to make threats over Berlin in 1958, which didn’t get him what he wanted.

    Now in short, this is using the weapons, and using them to what? To deter nuclear attack? No. Not in any single case. And I could give you a list. Berlin, South Vietnam in the 50s, Dien Bien Phu, when we offered, and so forth. Let’s come up, because I don’t have much time here, let’s come right up to the present.

    How many of you had ever heard the name Kaliningrad more than a year ago? How many of you heard it before today? Not so many, right? Look it up on Google. I just found, by the way, that it was originally called Königsberg, which rings in my memory a little bit, under Prussia. But it changed that name in 1946. So we’ve heard of Kaliningrad. Hans mentioned that it’s on the Polish border, right? And when I heard you say that, I thought, “There’s a little better way of saying that.” It’s between Poland and Lithuania. Those are both in NATO. It is part of Russia. It has no land access to Russia, to the rest of Russia. It’s an enclave. It has sea, it’s on a seaport, so they take that seriously.

    It’s now surrounded by NATO, like West Berlin, which had 22 Soviet divisions around it, between it and the rest of NATO. First of all, there’s only one way for the Russians then militarily to defend. It can’t defend, protect. Can it protect? Deter an attack on Kaliningrad, in the area of Kaliningrad. It can say, “Well, we’ll attack you elsewhere if you go into Kaliningrad.” There’s only one way, and that’s to threaten nuclear war, first use. That’s what they are doing. And not implicitly, but explicitly. Putin has said publicly, more than once, “Go into Kaliningrad… ” Which has a population of 400,000, it’s 86 square miles, and so forth. “Go into Kaliningrad, it’s nuclear war. It’s the same as invading Russia, okay?”

    Iskander missiles, dual-capable, in Kaliningrad. Now, do they have nuclear weapons? Warheads? We don’t know. They’re dual-capable. But I say again, you know, he has no other way of doing it, and he is doing it. And the NATO exercise we heard about earlier, had us, NATO, us, going into Kaliningrad. Now, maybe he wouldn’t start a nuclear war. He’d be insane to do it, of course, wouldn’t he? And so, should we assume that’s silly, it’s a bluff? It probably is mainly a bluff. Should we assume, then, that no problem, going into Kaliningrad, now why would go into Kaliningrad? Well, because NATO has just accepted the Baltics into the… If you look at the map on the Baltics. We have no more way of defending the Baltics locally with our divisions that we’re putting… Not divisions, brigades, we’ve been putting there in exercises, than they have of defending Kaliningrad. So what is the NATO answer to that? First use, which it’s always been. When I say, are we… It’s all coming back, let me go back to one little bit of history. Possibly the first use of our nuclear weapons, which was a bluff after the World War, Second World War, was sending publicly described nuclear capable bombers, B-29s, over to England for possible use with the Berlin Blockade, when I was 17. The Berlin Blockade.

    And needed why? Well, if they had interfered with our air access, which they could easily have done, very easily, stopped our air access, we had no other plan than going to war or NATO plan, at that point. How, against the overwhelming Soviet armed forces? No, impossible. So, anyway, Truman believed, by the way, rightly or wrongly, as Gregg Herken has brought out in his book, definitely believed we were successful on that. We kept them from interfering with our air, by fighter pilots in the Axis, it made it possible to stay in West Berlin and get committed there. So, it was a success, which encouraged us to base NATO and other, make all the other uses, I’ve talked of here, that as our first, useful success. Even though it was, in the short run a bluff, the bombers weren’t even configured for nuclear weapons, those B-29s. But they could have been, within weeks. We only had, at that point, a relative handful, a dozen, or a couple dozen, of nuclear weapons.

    Russia is today… There was only one way ever to defend West Berlin ’til the end of the Cold War. Granted, it got less acute after Ostpolitik with Willy Brandt, for which he got the Nobel Prize in ’72. Cold War lasted another 14 years, 15 years. But, in principle, from beginning to end, Berlin was defended by the threat of first use of nuclear weapons. And then by the way, the Kennedy administration came in and, contrary to Eisenhower, Eisenhower’s attitude always was, “Don’t talk about limited nuclear war, especially with Russia. Out of the question. It’ll get big, so go big from the beginning. Go first.” That was Eisenhower’s policy.

    The US didn’t think that looked so good. What’s the alternative? Well, Kennedy, I believe, and the others, the civilians I knew inside said, “You don’t want to initiate nuclear war. But how do you deter it? How do you deal with and how do you reassure Adenauer and reassure the rest of Europe and so forth?” Well, by making the commitment and making the threat. And so what do we try to fill NATO on, with some success? Demonstration strikes. Have you heard that? You heard it earlier this morning. Escalate to de-escalate. A demonstration to show that, I’m sure, Noam, you’ve read stuff on this, if I’m not mistaken, those who were in charge of Berlin planning, you don’t want to go all out. So throw one or two nuclear weapons at them to let them know the risks. So they’ll pull back. Right? Crazy, it was crazy. Crazy then, and crazy now.

    Is it possible for anybody to believe in that? Well, a lot of people seemed to believe in it. The Russians are talking as if they believe in it. Do they really? Who knows? Let me extend that just a moment more.

    The Russians are now defending Kaliningrad by the same threat that NATO used for 50 and more years to defend West Berlin. We are now openly and explicitly defending the Baltics the same way we defended West Berlin or the Russians defended Kaliningrad. And I put to you, there is no other military way to do these things. Let me come back to the last time we came really close, in our knowledge, to nuclear war. It wasn’t the last time, but the public doesn’t know that. Noam made some examples, and others, as late as 1995, actually, with Yeltsin, well after the Cold War. 1983, Andropov, false alarms in his countries, serious ones in 1979, 1981. Serious ones.

    Okay. But the public doesn’t know of any of those. The last time was the Cuban Missile Crisis. How did that come about? Very quickly in one word. Khrushchev knew something that I didn’t know, and I worked for the EXCOM, the Executive Committee, NSC, I was on two of the working groups for the EXCOM, or the NSC during that. And then, a year later, no that was ’62. And two years later, with high clearances, higher than top secret, I studied the Cuban Missile Crisis for most of the year inside the government.

    I still didn’t know that Kennedy had, for a year prior to that, been making every preparation for an invasion of Cuba, which the Russians knew. Exercising it, including an exercise against the Caribbean dictator Ortsac, O-R-T-S-A-C, Ortsac, which as Khrushchev recognized was Castro spelled backwards. And that was the public description of this. And we had been making covert operations into Cuba on an enormous scale. The man who burglarized my doctor’s office, Eugenio Martinez, had as a boat captain made 300 visits, covertly, into Cuba, before the Cuban Missile Crisis, as part of Mongoose. 300, okay.

    So Castro was saying, as he said in his memoirs and later, and we now know very well, “How am I going to keep from losing Cuba? The only country that is going communist without Soviet forces there?” They felt very romantically, almost sentimentally, and also, their foothold in the Western hemisphere and so forth. “I’m going to lose Cuba.” And then he had a brainstorm. And almost nobody in the whole literature describes that brainstorm in the following terms, “I’m going to defend Cuba the way the US defends Berlin.” The only way it could be defended from the Soviet Union, by threatening nuclear weapons. But, he only had, in ’62, still going on, 10 or some say 40 ICBMs. He had threatened to use those over the Bay of Pigs, but that was silly. No. Put nuclear weapons in Cuba.

    That was the only way he could do it, and it would have worked. It wasn’t that crazy, if you could get them there without being stopped. So he had to do it secretly, and he succeeded. He did get them there without being stopped, and once they were there, had he revealed them, I would say, nobody says this, had he revealed them, simply said, “They’re there, just the way your weapons are in Turkey. They’re there. Live with it,” there would have been no question of invading Cuba. It would be out of the question. He would have defended Cuba as long as he wanted to, or if he wanted to trade the weapons, he could trade them not just for Turkish weapons, he could make a big trade if we had to get those out of there.

    So what we see now is then we are currently preparing… I’ll sum it up. No one, no civilian that I know of, put aside LeMay and a couple of others, have wanted to see us in a nuclear war. No president has found himself able or willing to back off from threats of initiating nuclear war and preparing to do it. And the only way that threat can be made they thought plausible, even remotely, in the early years, decades, against the Soviet Union was to have some ability to limit the damage to the United States by hitting all of their hard targets, hitting all of their ICBMs, hitting their command and control, everything else. That was your only way supposedly of surviving. That’s why we had 10,000 weapons, 20,000 weapons, and so forth. It was not to deter a Soviet nuclear attack. It was to make credible a US first strike, and it still is. And that is what it’s for today.

    But now, and I have to take… I’m sorry, but here’s the last 60 seconds. Steve Star today, to my surprise… I mean I hadn’t planned on it, gave you the talk that I had planned to give about nuclear winter, because I think it’s of extreme importance. I know most of what he said, though I was still startled by some things. Of how many of you is that true? How many of you felt you knew most of what Steve Star said today? Really, can I see the hands? Well, it’s more than I would have thought, and we’re talking now about not nuclear winter as it was in 1983, but the studies of the last 10 years since 2007. Let me just ask again. How many of you have read studies by Alan Robock or Toon? Okay. Now you’ve published several. Okay. Meaning that no one has drawn from them that I’ve seen in writing. It’s not just that we’re talking that a nuclear war with Russia of the kind we’re threatening and preparing as in the past would lead to the death of not just most humans, but 99% of humans at most, 98%, 99%. Okay. People understand that if they’ve read the studies.

    I see no one draw the following point, which is very simple. Counterforce, striking first, makes no difference compared to striking second. Most of our warheads, our counterforce, are for striking first. They are for preemption, they are for damage limiting, which is if you believe the studies, which I do, is totally infeasible. Everybody dies, whether you go first or second. So all of these weapons we’re now modernizing and building, actually we are preparing nothing other. They still make credible threats. Credible why? Because humans are crazy, and nations are crazy. It’s credible to make a threat of omnicide, I’m sorry to say, but people don’t realize that’s the threat they’re making. It is the threat we are making. We are in the position of threatening to be a suicide bomber? No. A mutual homicide bomber? No. An omnicide bomber is what we’re threatening to do, not because we want to do it. And I think if that were known, it would at least change the discourse, shall I say. And it certainly is not known.

    As I was saying to my wife, finally, last night… Patricia was saying… I said, “Immoral,” and she said, “Immoral. Immoral is what? Masturbation, adultery, gayness, and so forth. It’s not the right word, somehow, for this.” And I said, “Alright. What is the right word?” We were up late discussing this kind of thing. “What is the… ” There’s no language. Humans never faced precisely this until let’s say 2007, except that who’s heard of it? Nobody knows it, and so forth. We’ve never in our lives faced what we are threatening on either side. It’s not a concept in humans. Can humans relate to this? Well, that remains to be seen, but we haven’t tried.

  • The State of the Nuclear Danger by Steven Starr

    This is the transcript of a talk given by Steven Starr at the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation’s symposium “The Fierce Urgency of Nuclear Zero: Changing the Discourse” on October 24, 2016. The audio of this talk is available here. A PowerPoint presentation to go along with this talk is here. For more information about the symposium, click here.

    starr

    David mentioned earlier that, he asked about why do we have this adherence to deterrence, and I believe one of the requirements for that is essentially the avoidance or even the outright rejection of the existential threat posed by nuclear arsenals. In other words, how can you threaten to use nuclear weapons if you would acknowledge that the use of these weapons could lead to the destruction of the human race or at least civilization? So my talk today focuses on what as I see as a confirmation of that rejection here in the United States, which is the rejection by US leadership of the nuclear winter studies.

    I want to talk about the studies first, because I think I want to underline how important they are. Ten years ago, the world’s leading climatologists chose to re-investigate the long-term environmental impacts of nuclear war. The peer reviewed studies that I have listed in the slide are considered to be the most authoritative type of scientific research. It’s subjected to criticism by the international scientific community before its final publication in scholarly journals. During this criticism period, there were no serious errors found in the studies. Working at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers, and the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at UCLA, these scientists use state-of-the-art computer modeling to evaluate the consequences of a range of possible nuclear conflicts. It began with a hypothetical war in Southeast Asia, in which a total of 100 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs were exploded in the cities of India and Pakistan. In order to give you an idea of what a Hiroshima-sized atomic bomb can do, please consider these images of Hiroshima before and after the use of an atomic bomb. These bombs had an explosive power of 15,000 tons of TNT.

    The detonation of such an atomic bomb will instantly ignite fires over a surface area of three to five square miles. The scientists calculated that the blast, fire, and radiation from a war fought with 100 atomic bombs could produce as many fatalities as World War II. However, the long-term environmental effects of the war could significantly disrupt the global weather for at least a decade, which could lead to, or would lead, likely lead to a vast global famine. This slide was… Each click is one day the smoke spread in the burning cities of India and Pakistan, the scientists predicted this would cause 3 to 4 million tons of black carbon soot from the nuclear firestorms to rise quickly above cloud level into the stratosphere, where it could not be rained out. The smoke would circle the earth in less than two weeks, would form a global stratospheric smoke layer that would remain for more than a decade. The smoke would absorb warming sunlight, which would heat the smoke to temperatures near the boiling point of water, which would lead to ozone losses of 20%-50% over populated areas. This would almost double the amount of UVV reached in some regions, and would create UVV indices unprecedented in human history.

    In North America and Central Europe, the time required to get a painful sunburn at midday in June could decrease to as little as six minutes for fair-skinned individuals. As the smoke layer blocked warming sunlight from reaching the earth’s surface, it would produce the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1,000 years. This is a slide taken from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in an article published by doctors Toon and Robock. Medical experts have predicted that the shortening of growing seasons and corresponding decreases in agricultural production could cause up to 2 billion people to perish from famine. The climatologists also investigated the effects of a nuclear war fought with vastly more powerful thermonuclear weapons possessed by the US, Russia, China, France and England.

    Some of the first thermonuclear weapons constructed during the 1950s and 60s were a thousand times more powerful than an atomic bomb. And when you look at photos of nuclear weapons, it’s important to consider how far away they were taken. This was our first test of a nuclear weapon. During the last 30 years, the average size of thermonuclear or strategic nuclear weapons has decreased, yet today each of the approximately 3,200-3,500 strategic weapons deployed by the US and Russia is 70-80 times more powerful than the atomic bombs that were modeled in the India-Pakistan study. The smallest strategic weapon has an explosive power of 100,000 tons of TNT, a ton is 2,000 pounds, compared to an atomic bomb, that averaged an explosive power of 15,000 tons of TNT.

    If you look at the scale, the largest nuclear bomb versus the atomic bomb, you’re going up by a factor of about 1,000. So you have 24,000 pounds of TNT, 3 million pounds of TNT for an atomic bomb, and really about 2.4 billion pounds of TNT for our large strategic nuclear weapon. And I made this photo just to compare an image I showed of the Hiroshima bomb at the base of what it would look like in comparison to Castle Bravo. I had a veteran from the South Pacific say, “You need to do a slide, because the atomic bombs were like fire crackers compared to hydrogen bombs.”

    Strategic nuclear weapons produce much larger fire storms than do atomic bombs. A standard Russian 800 kiloton warhead, which John was kind enough to publish in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, on an average day will ignite fires covering a surface area of 90-152 square miles. So a war fought with hundreds or thousands of US and Russian strategic nuclear weapons would ignite immense nuclear firestorms covering land surface areas of many thousands or tens of thousands of square miles. This would probably occur within a period of a couple of hours, or less possibly. This is the US-Russian nuclear war. The scientists calculated that these fires could produce up to 180 million tons of black carbon, soot and smoke, which would form a dense global stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke would remain in the stratosphere for 10 to 20 years and would block as much as 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the northern hemisphere and 35% from the southern hemisphere.

    It takes maybe a month or two for it to equilibrate. So much sunlight would be blocked by the smoke that the noonday sun would resemble a full moon at midnight, if you were in the northern hemisphere. Under such conditions, it would require only a matter of days or weeks for the daily minimum temperatures to fall below freezing in the largest agricultural areas of the northern hemisphere. Freezing temperatures would occur every day for a period of between one to three years. Average surface temperatures would become colder than those experienced 18,000 years ago at the height of the last Ice Age, and the prolonged cold would cause average rainfall to decrease by up to 90%. Growing seasons would be completely eliminated for more than a decade, and it would be too cold and dark to grow food crops, which would doom the majority of the human population. So the profound cold and dark following nuclear war became first known as ‘nuclear winter’, and it was first predicted in 1983 by a group of NASA scientists. And I took the liberty of copying a cover of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that announced this discovery, I think it was in 1984.

    During the 1980s, a large body of research was done by such groups as the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment and Scope, the World Meteorological Organization, and the US National Research Council of the US National Academy of Sciences. Their work essentially supported the initial findings of the 1983 studies. The idea of nuclear winter, published and supported by prominent scientists, generated extensive public alarm, put political pressure on the US and the Soviet Union to reverse a runaway nuclear arms race. Unfortunately, this created a backlash among many powerful military and industrial interests, who undertook the extensive media campaign to brand nuclear winter as ‘bad science’ and the scientists who discovered it as ‘irresponsible’. Critics used various uncertainties in the studies and the first climate models, which are primitive by today’s standards, as a basis to criticize and reject the concept of nuclear winter. In 1986, the Council on Foreign Relations published an article by the scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who predicted drops in global cooling about half as large as those first predicted by the 1983 studies, and they described this as ‘nuclear autumn’.

    Nuclear autumn studies were later found to be deeply flawed, but it didn’t matter, because nuclear winter was subject to criticism and damning articles in the Wall Street Journal, Time Magazine. In 1987, the National Review called nuclear winter ‘a fraud’. In 2000, Discover Magazine published an article which described nuclear winter as ‘one of the 20 greatest scientific blunders in history’. The endless smear campaign was successful, and the general public, and even most anti-nuclear activists, were left with the idea that nuclear winter had been discredited. I found this with Physicians for Social Responsibility, when we were trying to get funding in 2001 to renew nuclear winter research. 9/11 took it off the agenda, but I was kind of shocked that no one really believed this anymore. Yet the scientists didn’t give up, and in 2006 they returned to their labs to perform the research that I just described at the beginning of my talk. The new research not only upheld the previous findings, but it actually found the earlier studies underestimated the environmental effects of nuclear war, because it found that the smoke is heated by sunlight, and it creates a self-lofting effect. That’s why it stays in the stratosphere for so long.

    So after the initial series of studies were published in 2007 and 2008, two of the lead scientists, Dr. Alan Robock from Rutgers and Dr. Toon of the University of Colorado, made a series of requests to meet with the members of the Obama administration. They offered to brief the White House about their findings, which they assumed would have great impact upon nuclear weapons policy. But their offers were met with indifference. Finally, after a number of years of trying, I’ve been told that Dr. Robock and Toon were allowed an audience with John Holdren, the senior advisor to President Barack Obama on Science and Technology. Also, Dr. Robock has met with Rose Gottemoeller, as you all know, the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control. Dr. Robock has the impression that neither Holdren nor Gottemoeller think that nuclear winter research is correct. But it’s not only Holdren and Gottemoeller who reject the nuclear winter research. According to sources cited by Greg Mello of the Los Alamos Study Group, and I really respect Greg, he’s a brilliant guy. He goes to the White House quite frequently, and talks to people in the National Security Council. He says that the US Nuclear Weapons Council, which is a group that determines the size and composition of US nuclear weapons, as well as the policies for their use, has stated that ‘the predictions of nuclear winter were disproved years ago’.

    It may be that General John Hyten, the Head of the Strategic Command, who is in charge of the US nuclear triad, and General Paul Selva, the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the second highest-ranking officer in the US, have never seen or heard of the 21st century nuclear winter studies that I describe. Perhaps when they hear a question about nuclear winter, they only remember the smear campaigns done against the early studies, or maybe they just choose not to accept the new research, despite the fact that it has withstood the criticism of the global scientific community.

    Regardless, the question of nuclear winter research by the top military and political leaders of the US raises some profoundly important questions. Do they fully understand the consequences of nuclear war? And do they realize that launch-ready nuclear weapons they control constitute a self-destruct mechanism for the human race? Meanwhile, US political leaders generally support the ongoing US confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia and China. Mainstream corporate media, including the editorial boards of The New York Times and Washington Post engage in anti-Russian and anti-Putin rhetoric that rivals the hate speech of the McCarthy era. The US has renewed the Cold War with Russia with no debate or protest and subsequently engaged in proxy wars with Russia in Ukraine and Syria, as well as threatening military action against China in the South China Sea. And I brought this up just to show that the Bulletin has supported more recently these studies. This was an article that Toon and Robock.

    I’m going to just quickly summarize, since this is supposed to be the state of nuclear danger, how I see it. Hillary Clinton, who appears to be likely to become the next President of the US, has repeatedly called for a US-imposed no-fly zone over Syria, where Russian planes are now flying in support of the Syrian armed forces. Marine General Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told Congress in September that, should the US attempt to set up such a no-fly zone, it would surely result in war with Russia.

    Apparently, there’s now some debate about this. However, Russia has responded by moving its latest air defense system to Syria, and has stated it would shoot down any US or NATO planes that attempted to attack Syrian armed forces. Russia has also sent its only aircraft carrier, along with all of its Northern fleet and much of its Baltic fleet to the Mediterranean in its largest surface deployment of naval vessels since the end of the Cold War. In response to what NATO leaders describe as Russia’s dangerous and aggressive behavior, NATO has built up a rapid defense force of 40,000 troops on the Russian border in the Baltic states and Poland. This force includes hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles and heavy artillery. NATO troops stationed in Estonia are within artillery range of St. Petersburg, which is the second largest city in Russia. Imagine if that was in Tijuana and they could hit Los Angeles. The US has deployed its Aegis Ashore Ballistic Missile Defense System in Romania and is constructing another such system in Poland. The Mark 41 launch systems that’s used in the Aegis Ashore systems can also be used to launch nuclear long-range cruise missiles, so it’s a dual-use system. And Putin has pointed this out.

    In other words, the US has built and is building launch sites for nuclear missiles on the Russian border. This fact has been widely reported on Russian TV and has infuriated the Russian public. It was in St. Petersburg at an economic forum when Putin… You can look on the internet under ‘Putin’s warning’, and he lectured a group of international media people that Russia would be forced to retaliate against this threat. So, while Russian officials maintain that its actions are no more than routine, Russia now appears to be preparing for war. And Hans pointed out that these things can be viewed in different ways, but I still find some of this alarming, myself. On October 5th, Russia conducted a nationwide civil defense drill that included 40 million of its people being directed to fallout shelters. Reuters reported on October 7th that Russia had moved its Iskander-capable nuclear missiles, as Hans referred to, to Kaliningrad, which borders Poland.

    So, while the US ignores the danger of nuclear war, Russian scholar Stephen Cohen reports that the danger of nuclear war with the US is the leading news story in Russia. I listen to Cohen interviews on the John Batchelor Show every week, and it’s really one of the few sources in our media where you can get informed updates. Cohen speaks Russian and he listens to the Russian media, and he states, “Just as there are no discussion of the most existential question of our time in the American political class, the possibility of war with Russia, it is the only thing being discussed in the Russian political class. These are two different political universes. In Russia, all the discussion in the newspapers, and there is plenty of free discussion on talk show TV which echoes what the Kremlin is thinking, online, in the elite newspapers, and in the popular broadcasts, the number one, two, three and four topics of the day are the possibility of war with the United States.”

    And Cohen goes on to say that, “I conclude from this that the leadership of Russia actually believes now, in reaction to what the US and NATO have said and done over the last two years, and particularly in reaction to the breakdown of the proposed cooperation in Syria, and the rhetoric coming out of Washington, that war is a real possibility. I can’t remember when, since the Cuban Missile Crisis, that Moscow leadership came to this conclusion in its collective head.”

    My own personal assessment of the state of the nuclear danger today is that it’s profound. The US is sleepwalking towards nuclear war. Our leaders have turned a blind eye to the scientifically predicted consequences of nuclear war and appear to be intent on making Russia back down. This is a recipe for unlimited human disaster. But it’s still not too late to seek a dialogue, diplomacy and detente with Russia and China, and to create a global discussion about the existential dangers of nuclear war, which, when was the last time you heard about this? You certainly didn’t hear about it in the presidential debates. It’s like people have forgotten about it. But I think that they don’t want to think about it, because it’s just too painful.

    We must return to the understanding that nuclear war cannot be won and must not be fought. And this can be achieved if we listen to the warnings from the scientific community about the omnicidal consequences of nuclear war. I think we need to hold the feet to the fire of the US Nuclear Weapons Council, because any debate on this is useful, because then people will go, “What?” Just like my students in my class, they’re all uniformly horrified when they find out about what nuclear weapons will do. They don’t know, they really don’t know. And I think this recognition can provide what David suggested to be as a pressure point.