Category: Missile Defense

  • The History of Defense Systems and Remarks on the National Missile Defense

    “Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men.”

    Martin Luther King, Jr.

    1. Introduction

    This is a timeless article, for there has never been a time in history when some tribe or nation has not been contemplating actions and policies that lead to war or peace. During the history struggle arose frequently between families, clans, small and large population groups, first about chasing ground for animals, then possession of arable land, and finally about mineral resources. Local fights spread with time to larger areas. Was it first fists and teeth the main weapons, soon humans learned to prepare special tools for fighting each other. In parallel they developed means of body protection by armor, and to surround their living quarters with fortifications. Each advance in offensive weapons was countered by defensive structures, mostly in this time sequence. First all developments stretched over longer periods, but intervals are getting smaller and smaller with progress in technologies and science. It is the aim of this talk to describe briefly the major defense systems, culminating in the proposed Star War idea, developed by President Reagan, who claimed that it would make all other weapons obsolete. This claim had already been made for other weapons at earlier times in history. Will the National Missile Defense idea do what is advertised, or will it lead only to new arms race? Are we willing to learn from historical precedents?

    There is another underlying pattern to defense policy. Soldiers and statesmen are forever laying the pavements of good intentions that lead to the hell of military conflict. The process is endless and will not be interrupted before there is societal understanding of the patterns that lead to destruction and a modification of the behavior on the basis of that understanding. One such pattern is the predilection of tribes and nations to choose their statesmen from the ranks of a military hero [1]. The transition from soldier to statesman may occur at any phase of the career. We all know of the political path taken by General Eisenhower, Captain Truman, Lieutenant Kennedy, Corporal Hitler, and Shepherd David as they make the transition from military hero to national leader. We see the same pattern with General Powell, becoming Secretary of State, and perhaps in four years time President of the strongest nation in the world. It looks that the training, temperament and skills of the soldier are diametrically opposed to the training, temperament and skills of the statesman.

    2. Lifetime and efficiency of defense systems

    Built-up of defense systems is as old as any offense activity. There is no defense system that could withstand forever attack, and no defense system is even at the start perfect. To quote Hellmuth von Moltke: Offence is the straight way to the goal, whereas the defense is the long way around. A few of such systems will be briefly discussed:

    2.1 The Great Wall

    The Chinese Great Wall can be considered as the longest living defense system. It stretched over a length of 6’300 km from the Yalu River (Gulf of Chihli) to Jiayuguan (Central Asia). It has been built and rebuilt during almost 2’000 years, beginning with the interconnection of walls which surrounded small kingdoms. The major construction periods start with the 4th century BC, were accelerated by the first Chinese Emperor Qin 220-206 BC, using almost a million compulsory labor including some 300’000 soldiers. Maintenance work in the 7th century caused a death toll of half a million workers within ten days. A major upgrade was made during 1368-1644 in the Ming Dynasty (5’660 km). The fortification consisted of a 9-meter high wall and about twenty-five thousand alarms towers 13-meters high. Signals could be transmitted over a distance of 2’000 km in 24 hours. During the Qin reign 180 million cubic meters rammed earth provided for the core of the wall (10 meter thick, 5 meter high). The aim of the Wall was to protect against Huns. However, this fortification never performed properly as defense line. In 1208 Dschingis-Khan broke through the Wall and China was liberated again only in 1368. In 1644 the Wall was opened by the treason of a general near Shanghaiguan, where it had the formidable height of 16 meter and a width of 8 meters. The Wall degraded and its remains are since not more than a tourist attraction.

    2.2 The Roman Limes

    In comparison the Roman Limes was a much less ambitious defense building. The best known part was in the western part of Germany spanning between the Rhine and Danube Rivers. Building had been started in 9 AD, and it was reinforced between 117-161 AD. It had a length of 480 km, and consisted of a 3-meter high palisades and watch towers. It fulfilled its intended function only until 260 AD, when Alemanni broke through. Romans built similar Limes in Great Britain, Anatolia, and Syria in 2nd century AD, again with relatively short lifetimes.

    2.3 Castles and city walls

    Castles and city walls were the preferred fortifications for small city-states. Their efficient lifetime was at the best a couple of hundred years, before they were destroyed with the help of gunpowder, canons, and fireballs. Metallic armor of mercenaries turned out to reduce mobility, could not protect the horses of the horsemen, and got soon out of fashion.

    2.4 Defense lines in the 20th century

    The lifetime of fortifications built in the first half of the 20th century decreased rapidly.

    2.4.1 The French Maginot Line connected some modern fortresses, which hold out during World War I. Built in the 1930s, it presented a tremendous advance over previous fortifications and had all imaginable comfort for the defenders to offer. It was built along the French-German border, but not extended to the French-Belgium border, assuming Germans would respect in any conflict the neutrality of Belgium and The Netherlands. Germany did not behave as expected in World War II and its troops marched in 1940 through the northern flank into France, attacking the fortifications from the rear side.

    2.4.2 The counter part of the Maginot Line was the German West-Wall, a much less elaborated defense structure. It was not needed at the very beginning of World War II, but demonstrated some efficiency towards its end in 1945.

    2.4.3 Following the occupation of France in 1940 Germany built up the Atlantic-Wall. Its major fortifications were built near the smallest part of the English Channel, where it was expected that allied troops would try to land. This turned out to be a miscalculation by the German headquarters combined with an underestimation of air troopers that could land behind the Atlantic Wall.

    2.4.4 Antiaircraft canons, developed between the two World Wars, became increasingly worthless due to countermeasures in form of chaff (aluminized paper) used in WW II, that distorted radar images and simulated planes where there were none. High-flying planes flying could only be reached with insufficient accuracy.

    2.4.5 Reagan’s Star War program did not get beyond a preliminary design study, since scientists showed that laser canons could neither produce nor send the desired energy density towards incoming missiles to destroy them.

    The above examples show that time intervals are getting shorter between building of new defense systems and for their efficient use. This very preliminary study of some major defense systems and their “effective” lifetime has been made in order to find out if there is a pattern that might help to predict the performance of future developments. Any such development starts slowly, rises to maturity, and then declines in its efficiency. Rise and decline time may vary considerably from case to case, may have a steep rise and a slow decline, or vice versa, or may be Gaussian. A reasonable scientific description could be done by fitting the data by a Gaussian-like curve and define the efficiency by the full-width at halve maximum. This was not (yet) done for the present study. Instead best estimates for the start-up and complete demise were given. Figure 1 shows a plot (for convenience on a double logarithmic scale) of the so defined useful lifetime of defense installations/methods over two-and-a-half thousand years. In this plot is indicated for each system by whom or by which technical development the system became obsolete. A straight line can represent the data. No effort has yet been made to evaluate error bars, to define the slope, and to represent this line by an equation.

    Since this eyeball-fitted line represents so well the events during a very long period of human history, temptation is great to extrapolate it into the future. Doing so leads to the conclusion that defense mechanisms will become obsolete almost immediately after putting them into place. Taking an extreme view, it could mean that the National Missile Defense would not even see the light of the day before being made obsolete by countermeasures.

    Only time will show the validity of our extrapolation.

    2.5 Shift of warfare from ground to air

    A change in theory and practice of warfare becomes obvious during the later part of the 20th century. Was the practice in earlier epochs mainly composed of political, economic and military elements, it is now increasingly influenced by technological, scientific and psychological elements. In previous centuries the theory of warfare had been subdivided into a strategic part, considering wide spaces, long periods of time, large amount of forces as a prelude to battlefield, and the tactic part, which was just the opposite to the former. A distinction between strategic and tactic blurred since World War I (WW I) and especially during World War II (WW II). Surprisingly to the author, this distinction between strategic and tactic is still kept for nuclear weapons, and finds expression in the START and INF treaties.

    Whereas warfare during WW I was mainly on ground and at sea, and airplanes played only a secondary role for recognition purposes, a dramatic shift occurred during WW II. Weapon systems reached further and beyond front lines.

    Defense systems crumbled, anti aircraft canons became militarily impotent during massive air raids. German V1 and V2 rockets reached almost unimpeded their targets on the British Island. The only defense against these rockets in the forties was to bombard their launch pads. The recent Kosovo War demonstrated even more vividly that defense against planes, now flying at considerably higher altitudes, by anti-aircraft canons is a hopeless enterprise.

    The second half of the 20th century witnessed a dramatic improvement of the rudimentary German WW II rocket technology, promoted on the other side of the Atlantic and now common knowledge in most industrialized countries. These missiles can transport nuclear warheads, and of less military value, chemical and biological weapons [2]. A majority of people condemns these weapons, called Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), and demands their elimination. However, some countries believe they need WMDs for deterrence, but deny their possession for others. The escalation of the arms race during the Cold War led to plan for comprehensive antimissile defense systems for both super powers. Fortunately, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM), concluded in 1972, limited drastically, and still does, such an out-of-control development.

    3. Missile defense activities since the 1980s

    President Reagan’s speech on March 23, 1983 was the starting point for the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). The military-industrial complex eagerly picked up the idea. Even the industry in several NATO countries was encouraged to get involved, however not in their desired way in front-element technologies.

    Concerned, eminent scientists made feasibility studies, culminating in the “Report to The American Physical Society of the study group on Science and Technology of Directed Energy Weapons” [3]. Soviet scientists made a similar study [4]. Both groups came to the conclusion that most of the systems would not work as advertised or even not at all. The latter is the case for space-based laser canon [5]. The software aspects cause another tremendous hurdle [6]. A discussion of the results of these two documents is beyond the scope of the present paper. The reader is referred to the original literature, which remains a valid document up to date.

    Considerable amount of money was wasted during the years following Reagan’s proposal. Deception of the public about supposed successes played a role in promoting SDI [7, 8]. However, the topic did for several years no longer make any headlines. Public awareness was reawakened only during the first Gulf War. Unfounded success stories and tests were then sold to the public, which does mostly not understand the basic science and technology behind such claims. During CNN broadcasts, the military commanders claimed a widely exaggerated success rate of the Patriot missile in shooting down Scud missiles coming from Iraq. The General Accounting Office found that only nine percent of the Patriot-Scud engagements are supported by the strongest evidence that an engagement resulted in a warhead kill. The Patriot’s supposedly near-flawless performance may be one of the greatest myths in weapons history. As Winston Churchill once said “In war truth is such a precious good that it has to be surrounded by a strong body guard of lies”.

    The Patriot was originally designed to shoot down aircraft. In the 1980s, it was given an upgrade and a modified warhead to give it a limited capability to defend against short-range ballistic missiles. The Scuds were flying over 3,600 km per hour faster than the Patriot had been designed to deal with. The Patriot must detonate when it is within a few meters of the Scud to have a high probability of destroying the warhead [9-11].

    During the Clinton presidency SDI was revived, now only under another name, as National Missile Defense (NMD). An excellent description of all aspects of NMD, written for general public, can be found in [12]. NMDs task is advertised as a defense against a small number of missiles coming from rogue states. NMD consists actually out of two components: the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and the Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD). A shift of SDI from Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) to Kinetic Energy Weapons (KEW) occurred [13, 14].

    NMD does no longer rely on space-based laser canons, in so far becoming more realistic. It is supposed to destroy warheads in mid-course, but this policy may still change to the easier boost-phase interception [15].

    NMD is planned to protect against both, so-called theatre missiles and strategic (intercontinental) missiles. Such a development is seen by the departing and the incoming administration of the U.S. as a positive step in the right direction, but by a majority of other countries as counterproductive and giving rise to an unlimited arms race [16-20].

    3.1 Countermeasures

    First tests of BMD are very far from successful [21-23]. Will the BMD system be effective? The answer will depend among many other questions to be solved on the effect of countermeasures on the kill probability. It appears to be highly impossible to protect entire countries against missile attacks, as it is claimed by the United States.

    The kill probability is one of the key technical parameters for evaluating the effectiveness of a missile defense system. The higher the kill probability is, the more effective the defense system will be. Inevitably, a missile defense system will be challenged by countermeasures, which may decrease the kill probability. There are three different kinds of them against THAAD system: infrared stealth, radar interference and decoys. A brief qualitative discussion of these measures follows.

    3.1.1 Infrared stealth

    The endgame phase of an intercept begins when the infrared (IR) sensor built in interceptor’s kill vehicle (KV) acquires the target. The distance between the KV and the target at the beginning of the endgame is the so-called acquisition range. During the whole endgame phase, the KV maneuvers according to target’s trajectory information provided by the IR sensor to put itself on a path that leads to a direct hit with the target. For realizing a hit, enough endgame time, which is to say large enough acquisition range, is needed for the KV to correct its current velocity and position errors.

    Against IR sensors, there may exist several kinds of countermeasures; among which to shorten the acquisition range to an unacceptable level is a common one, known as IR stealth. For a given IR sensor and background noise, the acquisition range depends mainly on temperature, material and sizes of the target. The most effective way of realizing IR stealth is to chill the target to very low temperature since IR radiation decreases quickly with temperature. Dry ice or liquid nitrogen will do the job, being filled into the space between shroud and thermally insulated layers.

    3.1.2 Radar interference

    The X band ground based radar (GBR) is one of the most important components of the THAAD system. The GBR detects, acquires and tracks targets before interceptors could launch. When a certain tracking accuracy is achieved, interceptors are committed to their targets and launched, then the GBR continues to track the targets and issues updated target information through BMC4I system to the interceptors and KVs to guide their boost phase flights and midcourse flights respectively. When a KVs midcourse flight finishes and its endgame flight begins, the KV is delivered to the hand over point where the IR sensor of the KV is expected to acquire the target. The so-called hand over point is actually an error basket in space. To achieve a successful intercept, the basket has to satisfy two conditions: (1) at the hand-over point, the KV is at the position where it can acquire the target, (2) the KV’s position and velocity vector at the moment insures that the resulting zero effort miss distance (ZMD) error is within the KV’s maneuvering capability. On the one hand, the above two conditions depend mainly on the GBR’s capability to accurately predict the trajectory of the target. On the other hand, the KV’s capability of removing ZMD error is limited by the amount of fuel it carries and the total time of flight (TOF) during the endgame that is available for the KV to maneuver.

    In addition to GBR information obtained from satellites may be used for tracking. Their jamming could then be also being an effective countermeasure.

    3.1.3 Decoys

    Decoys or false targets are a most commonly used countermeasure. They are required to simulate some physical characteristics of the real reentry vehicle (RV), like size, shape, and temperature, speed etc., according to their task. The discrimination distance plays an important role. KP drops as discrimination distance decreases.

    Typical velocities of strategic targets are 7 km/s, and for theater targets 5 km/s. Calculations show that the KV with a speed of about 5 km/s will have nearly the same kill probability against strategic missiles as against theater missiles. It strongly suggest that a defense system with same performances would be nearly as capable in intercepting strategic missiles as in dealing with theater missiles if its performances and reliability are proved in testing against theater missile targets. The KV should explode when it is at about 4 meters away from the target. This requires timing within a fraction of a millisecond.

    3.2 Kill what and when?

    There is no doubt that weapons attain more destructive power over time, as was the case with the switch from TNT to nuclear explosives. There is no longer a strong relation between power and number of weapons as in a classical war. The population agglomeration gets denser, and therefore the vulnerability of the civil population increased and effects them physically and morally.

    BMD is advertised as an efficient means to protect the United States and its allies from weapons of mass destruction (WMD). It assumes that the main threat is coming from missiles, which could transport nuclear, chemical or biological warheads. The author has argued that delivery of biological and chemical agents this way is extremely inefficient and highly improbable [2]. The main danger is originating from nuclear warheads. They are getting so compact that countries of concern or terrorists can choose many other ways for transportation.

    Whatever the load the warhead contains, an intercept with a kill vehicle can cause two effects, which are rarely discussed in detail: Firstly, it can destroy either the propulsion part of the weapon (if any is still connected with the warhead), or the warhead itself, or both. Secondly, it could leave the warhead intact, but gives an additional momentum to it, causing a deviation of its trajectory.

    Can warhead destruction always considered to be an advantage or can it have detrimental effects?

    The destruction of the warhead will leave debris behind, which will essentially follow the original trajectory. The parts will hit ground somewhere. Since an intercept will happen at high altitude, chemical or biological material will be distributed over wide space. The agent will probably not have severe effects on humans, since its density at ground level will not reach the necessary, critical value to cause adverse health effects. An exception might be with plutonium, where strong negative long-term effects at ground level might be expected.

    In case the warhead remains intact and its trajectory is changed in an unpredictable way, effects during landing at another than the originally targeted place may be advantageous or not for the attacked country.

    4. Who should make decisions?

    Clemenceau once said: Modern war is too serious a business to entrust it to soldiers. This statement could be modified and enlarged: “Preparation for peace through building of defense systems is too serious a business to be handled by military heroes, since it may lead to modern war.”

    The 20th century has seen already one hero as statesman, Adolf Hitler, who considered himself as the greatest strategist of all times (Grösster Feldherr aller Zeiten). The world experienced the consequences of his ‘leadership’. The 21st century needs diplomats and not heroes, heads of state who are able to address questions of the international economy, market interventions, unanticipated crisis, all by peaceful methods.

    Fortunately, no decision on NMD had been made during the Clinton administration [24, 25]. However, the probability for a rush into failure at the beginning of the Bush administration looms on the horizon. A starting point of the new government could have been to limit the influence of military people in the decision making process. However, the choice of a military hero, General Colin Powell, to head the State Department, points in the wrong direction. General Powell is three things Mr. Bush is not: a war hero, worldly wise and beloved by Afro-Americans. That gives him a great deal of leverage. It means that Mr. Bush can never allow him to resign in protest over anything. The Bush team will be serious about what the Clinton team was not serious about, which is about intervening militarily [26]. This is the way generals are trained for.

    There should be an open discussion within the largest existing military pact, the NATO, on its necessity after the end of the Cold War and of its eventual dissolution. Building new defense systems should not jeopardize disarmament treaties. In particular the cornerstone, the ABM Treaty, should be maintained.

    For some four decades, deterrence was at the center of U.S. defense policy. There were three important features to it. First, it sounded robust without being reckless. Second it was hard to think of a better way to make sense of a nuclear inventory. Third, it seemed to work. A re-evaluation started with Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, which was based on the idea that it was better ‘to protect than avenge’. The problem with NMD is that it is likely to aggravate other problems, in particular the already tense relations with Russia and China. Worse, it could provide an illusion of security that, if ever tested, might come tragically apart. It may be wise to use deterrent threats only sparingly, but it can hardly make sense never use them at all [28.29].

    Many prominent scientists should reevaluate, if deemed necessary, their assessment of SDI and extend it to NMD. Scientists in the big weapon laboratories should be given tasks that are addressing more urgent problems of society, such as changes in means of energy production, protection of the environment, to name a few challenging tasks. Scientific evaluation, like the one that had been done by a group of prominent experts in the case of SDI, should get more weight than the judgement of military heroes.

    Should the American government pay more attention to the will of the people? Answers during a recent poll in the U.S. [18] on the question “Which of the following do you think is the most important issue facing the country today: Education, Medicare, health care, fight crimes/drugs, economic growth, crack down on illegal guns, cut taxes, strong military, national missile defense?” show that NMD has an extremely low priority of 1 percent, and a strong military a marginal 4 percent. This overwhelming disinterest is a clear sign that the drive for NMD is to search elsewhere. A good candidate may be the military-industrial complex.

    5. Conclusion

    There are an infinite number of better and necessary actions to be taken by any responsible government than to build the equivalent of a “National Missile Defense”, that has a high chance not to work at all. Not long ago a well-known physicist had to testify on the feasibility and efficiency of such a system during a hearing at an U.S. Senate’s Committee. He had been asked if NMD would work. It is reported that he thought for a short while, then came up with a resounding “YES”, and after a pause he added, “provided the adversary collaborates.” Even such an answer seems to me still too optimistic.

    6. References:

    [1] Hero as Statesman, Political Leadership in Military Defense Edited by John P. Craven Readings for Leaders, Harland Cleveland, Volume I Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University Press of America, 1988

    [2] The Concept of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Chemical and Biological Weapons, Use in Warfare, Impact on Society and Environment, Gert G. Harigel Seventh ISODARCO-Beijing Seminar on Arms Control, Xi’an, October 8-13, 2000,

    [3] Report to The American Physical Society of the study group on Science and Technology of Directed Energy Weapons N. Bloembergen, C.K.N. Patel, P. Avizonis, R.G. Clem, A. Hertzberg, T.H. Johnson, T. Marshall, R.B. Miller, W.E. Morrow, E.E. Salpeter, A.M. Sessler, J.D. Sullivan, J.C. Wyant, A. Yariv, R.N. Zare, A.J. Glass, L.C. Hebel Reviews of Modern Physics, Vol.59, No.3, Part II, July 1987, S0- S201

    [4] Space-Strike Arms and International Security, Report of the Committee of Soviet Scientists for Piece, Against the Nuclear Threat, Moscow October 1985

    [5] Physics and Technical Aspects of Laser and Particle Beam Weapons for Strategic Defense, R.L. Garwin, 1986, submitted to Physikalische Blätter

    [6] Software Aspects of Strategic Defense Systems, David Lorge Parnass, American Scientist, Volume 73, 432-440, September-October 1985

    [7] Aspin Confirms Deception Plan Existed to Promote SDI Program Dunbar Lockwood Arms Control Today, October 1993, pg. 18

    [8] Strategic ‘Deception’ Initiative John Pike Arms Control Today, November 1993, pp. 3-8

    [9] The Patriot Myth: Caveat Emptor John Conyers, Jr. Arms Control Today, November 1992, pp. 3-10

    [10] The Patriot Debate: Part 2, Letter to the Editor Frank Horten Arms Control Today, January/February 1993, pp. 26/27 Author’s Response, Arms Control Today, January/February 1993, pp. 27, 29

    [11] The Patriot Debate: Part 3, Letter to the Editor Theodore A. Postol and George N. Lewis Arms Control Today, March 1993, pg. 24

    [12] Defense Mechanisms Kosta Tsipis The Sciences, November/December 2000, pp. 18-23

    [13] Theater Missile Defense Programs: Status and Prospects John Pike Arms Control Today, September 1994, pp. 11-14

    [14] The Clinton Plan for Theater Missile Defenses: Costs and Alternatives David Mosher and Raymond Hall Arms Control Today, September 1994, pp. 15-20

    [15] Boost-Phase Intercept: A Better Alternative Richard L. Garwin Arms Control Today, September 2000, pp. 8-11

    [16] Missile Defense: The View From the Other Side of the Atlantic Camille Grand Arms Control Today, September 2000, pp. 12-18

    [17] A Pause in Unilateralism? Jack Mendelsohn Arms Control Today, October 2000, pp. 21-23

    [18] No Pressure From the People Mark S. Mellman, Adam Burns, Sam Munger Arms Control Today, October 2000, pp. 19, 20, 23

    [19] Security: The Bottom Line Jack F. Matlock, Jr. Arms Control Today, October 2000, pp. 17, 18, 24

    [20] Facing the China Factor Banning Garrett Arms Control Today, October 2000, pp. 14-16

    [21] Ballistic Missile Defense: Is the U.S. ‘Rushing to Failure’? John Pike Arms Control Today, April 1998, pp. 9-13

    [22] Mixed Results in U.S. TMD Tests Wade Boese Arms Control Today, September 2000, pg. 29

    [23] Officials Testify on National Missile Defense, Assess Program Wade Boese Arms Control Today, October 2000, pp. 25, 29

    [24] National Missile Defense, the ABM Treaty And the Future of START II Arms Control Association press conference, Arms Control Today, November/December 1998, pp. 3-10

    [25] Where Do We Go From Here? Harold Brown Arms Control Today, October 2000, pp. 12-13

    [26] Powell, a Serious Man to Be Tested Before Long Thomas L. Friedman International Herald Tribune, December 20, 2000

    [27] Does Deterrence Have a Future? Lawrence Freedman Arms Control Today, October 2000, pp. 3-8

    [28] Finding the Right Path Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Arms Control Today, October 2000, pp. 11, 24

    Years “Efficient lifetime” of defense systems

    2000 – ————– Chinese Great Wall – Huns

    1000 –

    500 –

    —- Upgraded Great Wall – Traitor 200 – — Roman Limes — Complete metal armor – Horses unprotected Alemanni — Castles in Europe – Gun powder

    100 –

    50 –

    20 – Antiaircraft canons – Planes too high

    10 – — Maginot Line – Attack from behind

    5 – – German West Wall – limited efficiency (‘Siegfried Line’) – Atlantic Wall – Disembarkation in Normandy

    2 – – SDI – Scientists

    1 –

    0.5 – – Safeguard ABM – Maintenance cost

    0.2 – NMD ? Decoys Jamming Cooling of radars of missiles

    0.1 500 500 1000 1500 1800 1900 1950 1980 1990 1995 1998 2000 BC AC Year

    Forum on “The Missile Threat and Plans for Ballistic Missiles Defense: Technology, Strategic Stability and Impact on Global Security”

    Istituto Diplomatico “Mario Toscano” and Parliament, Library Room “Il Refettorio” Rome, Italy, 18-19 January 2001

  • The Crawford Summit

    Presidents Bush and Putin will be meeting at the Bush ranch in Crawford, Texas from November 13-15 at what has been billed as the Crawford Summit. One major purpose of this summit is to discuss reductions in nuclear arsenals. For a few years the Russians have been calling for reducing US and Russian nuclear arsenals to 1,500 or less strategic nuclear weapons. The US has said that it needs to evaluate its nuclear posture, and is now in the process of doing so.

    President Bush has said that he wants to move forward with reductions in nuclear arsenals, but he has tried to tie these reductions to Russian agreement on amending the Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty to allow the US to conduct missile defense tests that are currently banned by the ABM Treaty. In other words, President Bush has been using reductions in nuclear arsenals as a bargaining chip to gain Russian assent to amending the ABM Treaty.

    Perhaps it is not yet clear to President Bush that significant reductions in the Russian nuclear arsenal will make the US safer. In fact, leadership by the US and Russia to eliminate all nuclear weapons, as they are obligated to do in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, would be strongly in the interests of both countries as well as the world at large.

    Why is the US so eager to amend the ABM Treaty? I would suggest that there are three major reasons. First, the US wants to use theater missile defenses to protect its forward based forces throughout the world. This will give the United States greater degrees of freedom to use its military troops anywhere in the world without concern that US bases and troops will be vulnerable to missile attacks in response.

    Second, the US wants to weaponize outer space and wants to be rid of Article V, Section 1 of the ABM Treaty in which each party to the treaty “undertakes not to develop, test, or deploy ABM systems or components which are sea-based, air-based, space-based or mobile land-based.” The US views missile defenses as a way to develop and test space based weaponry.

    Third, amending the ABM Treaty will allow the US to transfer billions of taxpayer dollars to defense industries to develop, test and deploy missile defenses — defenses that have little potential for actually protecting Americans from either major threats such as terrorism or virtually non-existent threats such as missile attacks from so-called rogue states.

    If the Russians do not go along with an amendment to the ABM Treaty, the Bush administration has already announced that it plans to withdraw from the treaty a treaty that Vladimir Putin as well as most of our allies throughout the world consider the cornerstone of strategic stability.

    US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty would be viewed throughout the world as a symbol of US arrogance and unilateralism. It would certainly have negative effects on our ability to hold together a coalition against terrorism, on future cooperative efforts with Russia and China, and on the prospects for nuclear disarmament.

    *David Krieger is President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

  • Letter to President Vladimir Putin

    Letter to President Vladimir Putin

    Dear President Putin,

    Please stand firm on your position on upholding the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. You are correct in stating that it remains the cornerstone of global stability, and many knowledgeable Americans understand this.

    The Bush administration wants to eliminate Article V, Section 1 of the Treaty in order to develop a comprehensive ABM system, but with particular emphasis on space-based weaponry that will lead to a new arms race in space. This would be yet another disaster for the prospects of life on our fragile planet.

    If September 11th has taught us anything, it is that even the most powerful nations are vulnerable to those who hate and are wedded to violence. September 11th provides yet another warning that human beings and nuclear weapons cannot co exist.

    Please use the occasion of the Crawford Summit with President Bush to call for implementation of a plan to eliminate all nuclear weapons from Earth in accord with existing obligations of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, beginning with immediate major reductions of nuclear weapons into the hundreds rather than thousands. I also urge you to propose that all nuclear weapons be removed from hair-trigger alert. Finally, I urge you to put forward immediately a World Treaty Banning Space-Based Weapons.

    This is a time that calls for bold proposals. Never has global leadership been more important. History has presented you with an opportunity to speak for humanity. Please speak to the world’s people in a clear and unambiguous voice for ending the nuclear weapons threat to humanity and for preserving outer space as a zone free of all weaponization.

    I am certain that you have the courage and commitment to succeed in accomplishing these goals.

    David Krieger, President Nuclear Age Peace Foundation

  • A Matter of National Priorities: National Missile Defense (NMD) and Theatre Missile Defense (TMD) as Violations of International Law and a Threat to Human Survival

    Introduction: Legal, Economic, Strategic and Political Issues Involving NMD Investment and Deployment

    The technology for building a comprehensive national missile defense (NMD), in the true sense of the word “defense” is not available. The technology for the deployment of NMD currently does not exist. Reoccurring test failures indicate that it is likely that the technology will not exist in the future. Rather, the technology that does exist is for offensive purposes in outer space. What is currently available for deployment in outer space is a weapons technology capable of uniting the military, economic, and political components of a U.S. strategy for the hegemonic dominance of the globe.

    The proposed investment in national missile defense (NMD) and theatre missile defense (TMD) dramatically alters the strategic balance between nations. Not only are major powers such as Russia and China affected, but also U.S. allies and the geopolitical terrain of the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, East and Central Asia. Taken in combination, these realities also impinge upon the very integrity of the international law environment which regulates not only relations between states but affects the integrity of the treaty system, the future direction of the military industrial complexes of the world, and the way in which humanity views “crimes against peace” through the lens of the 1945-Nuremberg Principles. Further, the economic costs of NMD, not only in its research, production, and deployment aspects, but also in the wider global context, raises serious questions about the leadership of the international financial system and the growing gulf between haves- and have-nots.

    The processes of globalization, as exemplified by the IMF, World Bank, and WTO, have effectively reinforced worldwide economic disparities through its structural adjustment programs (SAP). Increasingly, most nations on the planet, as acknowledged by the United Nations Millennium Summit, are unable to enjoy the benefits of international trade and the related benefits of a global economy. Globalization is a combination of political, economic, social, military, and cultural elements. In combination, globalization represents a fundamental historical shift for humanity. It has reframed the entire context in which governments, corporations, NGOs, and global civil society thinks and acts. It is in this context that U.S dominated NMD investment and deployment strategies must be viewed.

    Insofar as the growing gulf between haves- and have-nots is exponentially expanding, those individuals and nations with the greatest stake in the status quo increasingly rely on military solutions to what are predominantly political problems. According to the World Bank’s report, World Development Report 2001/2002: Attacking Poverty, the gulf between the haves- and the have-nots already leaves 2.8 billion people living on less than $2 a day. The social, economic, and political consequences of this disparity leads to growing conflicts between nation-states and regions. Unless these problems of global governance are addressed by providing concrete solutions both conflict and terrorism will escalate. In this new environment, a planned deployment of NMD technology can only be viewed by billions of human beings as a repressive and oppressive device to maintain the injustices and deprivations of the status quo.

    The militarization of space, as proposed by the advocates of NMD, represents a radical departure from established international laws and customs, which historically have guided international relations on earth. Because of the problems associated with maintaining economic and political hegemony, over large geographical regions and billions of people, the complexity of global governance has expanded. The U.S. military- industrial complex and certain corporate and financial interests, which guide many aspects of U.S. government decision making, have decided that planning and preparation for aggressive war is going to be the most effective way to govern the planet. As expressed by U.S. Space Command’s book, Vision for 2020, the goal of dominating the space dimension of military operations is ” to protect U.S. interests and investment” [EXHIBIT 6].

    The goal of achieving the domination of the space dimension of military operations, with its central purpose of protecting U.S. interests and investments, is not a “defensive” posture or purpose. Rather, the stated plan involves the militarization of space for aggressive purposes, aimed at rivals, anticipated revolts, and opposition to U.S. hegemony around the globe. As such, in violation of the 1945-Nuremberg Principles, the vision of U.S. Space Command, as well as its governmental and industrial supporters, constitutes “planning and preparation for war”. In the language of the Nuremberg Principles, it constitutes “a crime against peace”.

    Insofar as the year of 2001 is the first year in which formal funding requests for NMD are being renewed in the United States Congress, it may be alleged that the four major companies who seek this funding (Lockheed-Martin, Raytheon, TRW, Boeing), in conjunction with the Pentagon/CIA, are currently engaged in what the Nuremberg Principles call a “conspiracy to engage in planning and preparation for aggressive war”. As such, this is an indictable offense/violation of international law. It should be opposed within the United States and submitted to the World Court (The Hague), and the United Nations, for legal action and condemnation. For while each nation has the right to “defend” itself, no nation has a protected right, under international law, to engage in a “conspiracy” to promote “planning and preparation for aggressive war”. Should such a course be funded or endorsed, then, by definition, it will constitute a sanctioning and legitimation of a “crime against peace”. To move in this direction will also allow for the abrogation of treaties, such as the 1972-ABM Treaty.

    (A) The Abrogation of the 1972 ABM Treaty

    The Bush administration, in its efforts to withdraw from the ABM Treaty, has demonstrated its commitment to establishing an offensive military capability. It has also expressed such an intention in terms of the planned production and deployment of various space-based weapons systems [EXHIBITS 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, E]. The U.S. Space Commands’ position, as recently expressed in its book, Vision For 2020, makes clear its intention to embark upon the militarization of space in conjunction with a variety of war fighting capabilities [EXHIBIT 6]. In response to this threat, Russian leaders have repeatedly and consistently declared their strong opposition to even limited NMD and to amending the ABM Treaty. Russian concerns about U.S. efforts to install even a limited NMD capacity fall into six categories:

    First, the Russian leadership fears that even a limited NMD would only serve to undermine confidence in the retaliatory capability of its current forces;

    Second, Russia assesses its nuclear capabilities by a more demanding standard than the one the U.S. has used, so even a limited NMD system would appear still more threatening;

    Third, Russia fears that the planned limited deployment would provide the United States with the infrastructure and experience to field a larger and more advanced NMD system in the future;

    Fourth, even if the Bush administration had favored amending, rather than abandoning the ABM Treaty, Russia would remain worried that amending the ABM Treaty to allow limited NMD would set a precedent that would support the eventual elimination of negotiated limits on NMD. Because the real value of the treaty is premised on the belief that the parties will abide by its terms, U.S. insistence upon amending the ABM Treaty would reduce the value that Russia would place on an amended treaty;

    Fifth, Russia is most likely concerned about the symbolic implications of the deployment of an NMD system;

    Sixth and finally, responding to the U.S. deployment of a NMD system would require Russia to increase spending on strategic nuclear forces at a time when resources are scarce and much of the Russian nuclear force is nearing the end of its useful lifetime [EXHIBIT P].

    In light of these concerns, the United States should take Russia’s position and its perceptions much more seriously. To fail to do so, leaves the U.S. in an international stance of moving toward a unilateral direction, separating it from both allies and potential adversaries. In this formulation, the adoption of NMD represents a revived American isolationism for the 21st century. It is supportive of exclusionary governance, the search of geopolitical dominance, and the endorsement of an imperial hegemony. Such an approach is divorced from traditional American values of democratic deliberation, inclusionary forms of governance, and inclusionary decision-making at the national and international levels.

    As the International Tribunal at Nuremberg put the matter in its judgment: “…individuals have international duties which transcend the national obligations of obedience imposed by the individual state”. The judgment at Nuremberg relates to those individuals in government, industry, and the military-industrial complex of the United States, who advocate the abrogation of the 1972-ABM Treaty. The imposition of NMD, on the international stage, constitutes an offensive, aggressive, and hostile intent by seeking to undertake the domination of the space dimension of military operations to “protect U.S. interests and investment” by “integrating space forces into war fighting capabilities across the full spectrum of conflict” [EXHIBIT 6].

    (B) The 1945 Nuremberg Principles

    With the inauguration of the Bush administration in 2001, the executive branch of the U.S. government has sought to unilaterally abrogate the ABM Treaty [EXHIBITS 9, M, P], has refused to reintroduce in the U.S. Senate the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) [EXHIBITS F, G], has chosen to ignore the terms of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and has intentionally violated the Nuremberg principle which maintains that the laws of war and some other rules of international law are superior to domestic law. In this context, the Nuremberg Principles assert the proposition that individuals may be held accountable to them.

    In pertinent part, the Charter of the International Military Tribunal convened at Nuremberg, August 8, 1945, outlines in the section on “Jurisdiction And General Principles” (Article 6), the means by which to identify acts and crimes coming “within the jurisdiction of the Tribunal for which there shall be individual responsibility: (a) Crimes Against Peace: Namely, planning, preparation, initiation or waging a war of aggression, or a war in violation of international treaties, agreements or assurances, or participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of any of the foregoing” [EXHIBIT 3, pp. 19-20 (Italics are mine)]. It is legitimate to contend that the proposed withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, when combined with the continued and renewed corporate lobbying of Congress by: (1) Boeing; (2) Lockheed-Martin; (3) Raytheon; (4) TRW, constitutes “planning” and “preparation” for aggressive war by the Bush administration and U.S. Space Command, in conjunction with corporate collusion with U.S. governmental agencies by “participation in a common plan or conspiracy” to fund the industrial component of the American National Security State. Under this analysis, taken together, both individually and collectively, members of the Bush administration may be legally indicted, under international law, for their “conspiracy” with elements of the military-industrial-complex to engage in “planning and preparation for aggressive war” in violation of the 1945 Nuremberg Principles [EXHIBIT 3].

    (C) The Legal Basis for an Indictment of the United States’ Military-Industrial Complex Regarding NMD/TMD Funding

    In combination, the Bush administration’s refusal to comply with the rules and norms of international law represents a grave danger to both world peace and the control of weapons of mass destruction through: (1) the abrogation of treaties; (2) numerous violations of international law; (3) the lack of fidelity to the maintenance of peace through the commission of crimes against peace by undertaking policy, spending, research, and deployment measures designed to advance the process of planning and preparation for waging aggressive war. The dominant reason for this unlawful trend, as acknowledged by the U.S. Space Command, is “to protect U.S. national interests and investment” and to provide the means to begin the process of “integrating space forces into war fighting capabilities across the full spectrum of conflict.”

    The Charter of the International Military Tribunal convened at Nuremberg, August 8, 1945, also set forth definitions for “leaders, organizers, instigators and accomplices participating in the formulation or execution of a common plan or conspiracy to commit any of the foregoing crimes are responsible for all acts performed by any persons in the execution of such plan”. In Article III, section (B), a militarist is defined as: “(1) Anyone who sought to bring the life of the German people into line with a policy of militaristic force; (2) Anyone who advocated or is responsible for the domination of foreign peoples, their exploitation or displacement; or (3) Anyone who, for these purposes, promoted armament”. Further, in Article III, section (C), “(I) A profiteer is: Anyone who, by use of his political position or connections, gained personal or economic advantages for himself or others from the national socialistic tyranny, the rearmament, or the war. (II) Profiteers are in particular the following persons, insofar as they are not major offenders…anyone who made disproportionately high profits in armament or war transactions”.

    In the case of the United States, it may be argued that, since the 1950s to the present, there has been a continuous effort by a variety of persons and corporations who sought to bring the life of the American people into line with a policy of militaristic force (the Korean War, Vietnam, Star Wars). Since the early 1950s, the country has spent over $100 billion on ballistic missile defense, $70 billion of it since Reagan’s SDI proposal, with little to show for it. By the year 2000, the Congressional Budget Office had estimated the cost of the Star Wars plan at around $60-billion dollars. Yet, a more comprehensive land-, sea-, and space-based scheme, as favored by many Republicans, would cost more on the order of $240-billion dollars. This price tag precedes any further calculations that would take into account the inevitable delays and cost overruns [EXHIBIT X].

    Viewed in this light, following the 1945-Nuremberg Principles, it may be argued that: (1) militarists in the Pentagon/CIA, throughout a string of administrations since the 1950s, have sought to increasingly divert U.S. government funding into planning and preparation for aggressive war by giving the United States a “nuclear first-strike” capability; (2) this capacity/capability for a military “first-strike”, whether from land-, sea-, or space-based stations would be provided for by civilian profiteers who have made “disproportionately high profits” in the name of ballistic missile defense; (3) this expenditure has taken place despite the warning of President John F. Kennedy, in 1961, that “unconditional war can no longer lead to unconditional victory. It can no longer concern the great powers alone. For a nuclear disaster, spread by wind and water and fear, could well engulf the great and the small, the rich and the poor, the committed and the uncommitted alike. Mankind must put an end to war-or war will put an end to mankind” [EXHIBIT Z].

    (D) Funding for the Military-Industrial Complex

    From 1999 to 2000, just four U.S. corporations have accounted for 60% of all missile defense contracts. These four corporations are: Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Raytheon, and TRW. These four corporations are in a unique position to provide the Bush administration with the technological means to use the resources of the United States government to fund research and development for the planning and preparation for aggressive war. This is not a “defensive” process or task for a variety of key reasons. According to U.S. Space Command, the capabilities of NMD will comply with four central operational concepts: (1) control of space; (2) global engagement; (3) full force integration; (4) global partnerships. It has been asserted, by U.S. Space Command, that these operational concepts provide the new conceptual framework to transform the Vision For 2020 into war fighting capabilities [EXHIBITS 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, E, L, N]. The role of the aforementioned corporations will include the enjoyment of virtually unlimited access to permanent funding by the military industrial complex [EXHIBITS I, J, O, P, T, V, X, Y].

    As early as 1988, the Council on Economic Priorities completed a study which predicated that the potential economic impact of the NMD program (referred to as “Star Wars” at that time), would result in a cost to every American household of as much as $12,000 for a fully funded $1 trillion dollar NMD system. In fact, the council found that research funds alone would dwarf all other military programs and the needs of all other domestic programs. Further, it would engage the energies and talents of up to 180,000 scientific and engineering specialists if the program moved into production. Production of such a system impacts many interrelated areas of the economy. For example, “Whatever the final costs of an SDI system, it will clearly cost the average American household a total of $5,000 to $12,000, spread over eight to twenty years. For the average family earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, SDI could increase the annual tax bill by $570.” Such a massive shift of economic priorities, if implemented, would “seriously weaken the nation’s ability to meet the challenges of unemployment, export market loss, dwindling technological leadership, and antiquated industrial plants”. Now, at the dawn of the 21st century, the United States finds itself in precisely this exact position [EXHIBITS H, I, J, O].

    Throughout the Third World, from Latin America to South Asia, and from Sub-Saharan Africa to the countries of Europe and Central Asia, there resides a deepening poverty amid plenty. According to the World Bank’s report, World Development Report 2000/2001: Attacking Poverty, “of the world’s 6-billion people, 2.8 billion-almost half- live on less that $2 a day, and 1.2-billion–a fifth– live on less than $1 a day, with 44% living in South Asia.” The cited statistics are indicative of the fact that funding for the military industrial complexes of the world, as well as an unrestrained trade in global armaments, not only fuels violent conflicts but also contributes directly to enduring and deepening poverty. The correlation between the trade and purchase of weapons, on the one hand, and rising levels of poverty on the other, provides clear and convincing evidence that humanity cannot sustain this trend. This relationship is well documented throughout the scholarly literature on the subjects of war and peace in the nuclear age.

    With the deployment of NMD, an international reaction will most likely result in a new arms race. With the continuation of these trends, the tragic consequences of the Cold War, which ended in 1990, will only worsen with a second Cold War at the dawn of the 21st century [EXHIBIT R]. If continued spending on weapons increases and expands under NMD and TMD, nationally and internationally, there will be a corresponding depletion of human capital, as social programs and investments in health, education, and welfare, are cut even deeper. This, in turn, will result in the inevitable widening of circles of poverty and a growing gap between the haves- and the have-nots. Such an outcome will probably produce revolts, revolutions, and rising levels of terrorism around the globe.

    (E) International Relations and Security Concerns

    On the international scene, the proposed NMD system and TMD system has the potential to dramatically destabilize an already precarious series of international relationships [EXHIBITS Q, S, T, U]. According to the Center For Defense Information (CDI), ” to pull out a keystone of arms control by abrogation of the ABM Treaty could weaken stability world wide, particularly sensitive areas of Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani programs”. The Bush administration’s desire to remove the U.S. from its obligations under the 1972 ABM Treaty reflects the tragic course of policy makers who dismiss the linkage of disarmament, proliferation, and unproliferation as softheaded. The tendency to dismiss the linkage between these various courses of action reflects a genuine contempt for the aspiration for equity between states. With the dismissal of policy choices that support equity between states, the primary emphasis in strategic planning returns to a calculation of how to factor the balance of armored divisions or missiles between states.

    History is a record of the downplaying of the equity dynamic of nuclear politics. The downplaying of the equity dynamic presents a double irony, insofar as American policy makers promote democracy precisely because equity is seen as a worthwhile objective. According to the “democratic peace thesis”, it is believed that states that achieve relative equity will be more stable and peace loving. In this sense, democracy is perceived as a means to equity. Yet, when policy makers confront the challenge of global nuclear policy, American (and other) officials devalue equity as a necessary element in their planning and decision-making. In this context, NMD/TMD expands the scope of global instability with respect to global nuclear policy. If this trend is to be reversed, a more forthright acknowledgment of the balance of power mentality versus concerns with equity must be addressed. A better U.S. strategy toward the developing world as a whole and East Asia, in particular, will require a complete overhaul of the structures and processes of policy making, to bring them into accord with genuine equity, social justice considerations, human rights norms, United Nations covenants and conventions, and a nuclear weapons regime which promotes demilitarization within a specified timeline that can be consummated with the abolition of nuclear weapons through global disarmament. Such a course will benefit all states involved and will be more suitable to take into account, the non-military threats to international stability, such as terrorism.

    To remove the keystone of arms control through the abrogation of the 1972 ABM Treaty would be especially tragic insofar as, in future years, the ABM Treaty could serve as the bridge to a new era in which further reductions in offensive missiles could be accompanied by the testing and building of more limited defensive systems [EXHIBIT W]. In this critical regard, as a practical matter, “no one will be reliably defended unless everyone is. The most objectionable feature of the current NMD effort is that it is being conducted as a unilateral initiative for the United States alone in defiance of legitimate opposing security concerns.”

    The ramifications of ignoring the legitimate security concerns of other nations leaves the United States permanently trapped in a position of making unilateral policy decisions. The high diplomatic costs of taking a unilateral path have taken already their toll with regard to America’s NATO allies throughout Europe. Britain, Italy, Germany, and France have already voiced wide disapproval of President Bush’ conduct of foreign policy with regard to the administration intent to withdraw from the ABM treaty [EXHIBIT G].

    In the East Asian context, North Korea has known, since the mid-1980s, that it was no match for South Korea-let alone a South Korea with U.S. military support, insofar as North Korea could no longer rely on Russia for its security and could expect assistance from China if attacked. The efforts of the late 1990s to defuse the DMZ and efforts to open negotiations for the normalization of the relationship between the North and South, as undertaken by the “sunshine policy”, represented new steps toward peace. However, by August 2001, the Bush Administration had undertaken efforts to sabotage these negotiations. If North Korea were to remain as a hostile state, it would allow the United States to continue to characterize it as a rogue nation. As a rogue nation, it would also allow the United States to raise the possibility that China would become a threat to American security interests in the region, and thereby justify NMD/TMD deployment [EXHIBITS Q, S].

    The introduction of Theatre Missile Defense (TMD) [EXHIBIT 12, L, Q] also contributes to a sense of insecurity for China. The TMD concept originated in the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), forged during the Reagan administration. Following the end of the Cold War, the Bush (Sr.) administration revised the SDI into a program called Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS). By 1993, the Clinton administration declared the termination of the SDI era. The new focus was to be placed upon missile defense systems, such as NMD. By 2001, these trends have resulted in major shifts in perceptions in policies among Japan, Taiwan, China, North and South Korea. The greatest negative impact on these nations has been to damage efforts at confidence building among big powers, by bringing about new complications and problems for Sino-U.S. relations, Russian-U.S. relations, Sino-Japanese relations, Russian-Japanese relations and U.S-Japanese relations. In summary, the NMD/TMD program has harmed gradual progress toward cooperation and security in the region by deepening suspicion and confrontational sentiments among them [EXHIBIT L, Q].

    (F) Planning and Preparation for Aggressive War

    Beginning in 1957, the United States military prepared plans for a preemptive nuclear strike against the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), based on America’s growing lead in land-based missiles [EXHIBIT 4]. Top military and intelligence leaders presented an assessment of those plans to President John F. Kennedy in July of 1961. At that point in time, a portion of high-ranking Air Force and CIA leadership “apparently believed that a window of outright ballistic missile superiority, perhaps sufficient for a successful first strike, would be open in late 1963”. Kennedy’s response indicates his personal determination, shared by his civilian advisors, that a first strike capability never be implemented or become U.S. policy. However, “the fact that first strike planning got as far as it did raises questions about the history of the Cold War. Much more needs to be known: about nuclear decision-making under Eisenhower and Nixon, about the events of late 1963, about later technical developments such as MIRV and Star Wars”.

    At the dawn of the 21st century, with strong governmental and corporate support for NMD/TMD, placed at the center of U.S. strategic thinking and planning, research and investment, offensive capabilities, and geopolitical implications from military strategy to international relationships, the need to re-examine Star Wars, National Missile Defense (NMD), and Theatre Missile Defense (TMD), is more vital than ever. For advances in technological capabilities, both military and civilian, have reached a new stage of maturation, placing the fate of humanity at a critical juncture. The dynamics of war and peace are now, even more, left hanging in the balance. For example, Donald Rumsfeld before assuming the position of Secretary of Defense headed a 13 member “Space Commission” which included 2 former commanders in chief of the United States Space Command and an ex-commander of the Air Force Space command. The commission’s finding restored enthusiasm among NMD advocates to launch a new battle in congress for funding [EXHIBITS C,D,H,S,V,Y]. Contrary to NMD advocates, the critics of this recently endorsed proposal for a space weaponization plan, contend that its purpose is primarily offensive in nature. By removing the mythology of a defensive capability, the critics of NMD have reconfigured the debate and the dynamics of the “dog-fight” for dollars to be allotted NMD. [EXHIBIT J]

    Specifically, with regard to the militarization of outer space, history reveals a continuing struggle within the highest echelons of the United States Government from 1963 through 2001. Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly in New York, September 25, 1961, President John F. Kennedy stated: “To destroy arms…is not enough. We must create even as we destroy-creating worldwide law and law enforcement as we outlaw worldwide war and weapons…For peace is not solely a matter of military or technical problems-it is primarily a problem of politics and people. And unless man can match his strides in weaponry and technology with equal strides in social and political development, our great strength, like that of the dinosaur, will become incapable of proper control-and like the dinosaur, vanish from the earth. As we extend the rule of law on earth, so must we also extend it to man’s new domain-outer space…The new horizons of outer space must not be driven by the old bitter concepts of imperialism and sovereign claims. The cold reaches of the universe must not become the new arena of an even colder war”.

    Kennedy’s prophetic analysis of 1961 remains at the heart and center of debates on NMD in the year of 2001. His analysis will probably persist as a constant reminder that the search for peace is usually juxtaposed to unrestrained technological advances that are united with the military mind and its search, not so much for defensive capabilities as for offensive capabilities [EXHIBIT Z]. In this regard, the argument of the advocates of missile defense, to the extent they articulate their general strategic purpose, “tend to emphasize the moral superiority of the defensive mission. It is better, they say, to defend against attack than to threaten retaliation. They implicitly acknowledge, however, no feasible elaboration of defensive technology would make it a reliable substitute for the threat of retaliation, and they do not propose to accompany a more robust NMD deployment with the very drastic restrictions on US offensive capability that would be necessary to make it plausibly acceptable to the principal potential opponents. In fact, most of the assertive NMD advocates also aggressively support the development of advanced conventional offensive capability that is the principle concern of such opponents”. Both NMD and TMD have strong U.S. offensive capability built into them. In fact, the U.S. Space Command’s own book, Vision For 2020, constantly repeats terminology such as: “dominating the space dimension of military operations”, “integrating space forces into war fighting capabilities across the full spectrum of conflict” [EXHIBIT 6].

    By 1999, leading American experts argued that both NATO and the cause of peace would gain from ” a no-first-use” policy. Thomas Graham Jr., Robert McNamara and Jack Mendelsohn, argued that, “it is critical for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to reconsider its nuclear policy and agree to a no-first-use provision on nuclear weapons. Such a policy would be a signal to the international community that the most powerful nations in the world are prepared to accept that nuclear weapons have no utility other than to deter a nuclear-armed opponent from their use”. The emphasis upon deterrence must be underscored as the most essential place to begin analysis of nuclear policy, whether it be a “no-first-strike” or NMD/TMD. U.S security is still influenced by how other major powers understand Washington’s goals. In the context of NMD, Space Command’s publication, Vision For 2020, places emphasis not so much on defense as upon war fighting capabilities “across the full spectrum of conflict”. This is significant because the distinction between defense per se and planning and preparation for aggressive war, allows us to bifurcate the ideological arguments of advocates for NMD from the critique of opponents. The publication, Vision For 2020, is clearly a blueprint for the implementation of a first-use-strike capability.

    The recognition by Russia and China that NMD constitutes the basis for planning and preparation for aggressive war understandably gives rise to anxiety about how, where, and when the U.S will employ its newly acquired military capabilities in space, as it proceeds in the pursuit of advancing its vital interests. The advance of U.S military power in space increases an entire spectrum of considerations that could be augmented by a destructive force without parallel in the nuclear age. In this regard, “because Russia and China are not confident that the United States will respect their vital interests, U.S security policy, while pursuing its other requirements, should avoid fueling their fears and triggering reactions that ultimately would decrease U.S security.” In this regard, the dangers of miscalculation are enormous [EXHIBITS 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, A, B, O, P, Q, R, S, T, Y, Z].

    As with World War I, the greatest danger of NMD, may be that it could actually make the U.S more vulnerable, because of the dangers of miscalculation. Miscalculation can be registered in rising levels of global insecurity since it would exacerbate strategic, psychological, and geopolitical tensions between the U.S, Russia, and China. Senator Tom Daschle (D-South Dakota), summed up the danger in articulate terms when he stated on May 2, 2001, “many in the administration… argue that deploying an ineffective defense can still be an effective system simply because it would cause uncertainty in the minds of our adversaries. That position is based on the flawed assumption that the president would be willing to gamble our nations security on a bluff, and that no adversary would be willing to call such a bluff. Instead of increasing our security, pursuing a strategy that cannot achieve its goal could leave our nation less secure and our world less stable.” Senator Daschle’s assessment closely corresponds to the interpretation of historians with respect to the start of World War I. The combination of flawed assumptions, bluffs, and an unexplored and previously unused military technology was responsible for the worst carnage the world had yet experienced in war. Similarly, the NMD plans, as proposed in, Vision For 2020, comprise an analogous set of flawed assumptions.

    In the context of international law, even before the introduction of NMD/TMD technologies, scholars have argued that, “the effects produced by nuclear weapons have forced the need for a fundamental reevaluation of the nature and objectives of war in the ‘nuclear age’.” The necessity for this reevaluation is even more pertinent in the NMD context, because NMD exponentially expands the capacity of an NMD state to fundamentally alter the balance of terror through the destruction of international law, in its totality, by abrogating treaties and principles which have provided an effective restraint and deterrent effect [EXHIBITS K, L, M, N, O, P, Q, T, U, W, Y, Z]. To maintain the integrity of international law it will be necessary to uphold treaties that have enduring significance and principles that embody enduring guidelines [EXHIBITS U, W]. In conjunction with the 1945 Nuremberg Principles, the International Court of Justice ruling on the threat or use of nuclear weapons has direct bearing on NMD funding, research, and ultimate deployment. With this in mind, the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice, on July 8, 1996, provides the basis on which to critique many of the flawed assumptions behind the advocacy of NMD.

    (G) The Opinion of the International Court of Justice

    On July 8, 1996, the International Court Of Justice (hereinafter referred to as, ICJ) responded to requests by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) for an advisory opinion on the legality of the threat or use of nuclear weapons. The case divided the judges jurisprudentially and doctrinally in fundamental ways, with a narrow majority (that depended on a second casting vote by the President of the Court, Judge Mohammed Bedjaoui of Algeria, See-International Court of Justice Statute Article 55 [2]) forging a consensus that lends strong, yet partial and somewhat ambiguous, support to the view that nuclear weapons are of dubious legality. According to Professor Richard Falk, “the most critical aspect of the dispositif on the core issue of legality reach a result that surprised those who anticipated an either/or outcome, the court having created some new doctrinal terrain by deciding that the threat or use of nuclear weapons is prohibited by international law, subject to a possible exception for legal reliance on such weapons, but only in extreme circumstances in self-defense in which the survival of a state is at stake”.

    Professor Falk’s interpretation of the ICJ advisory opinion brings to the foreground of legal analysis an emphasis upon the defensive role of nuclear weapons. The fact that the threat or use of nuclear weapons is strictly prohibited by international law, with only one extreme exception, the self-defense of a nation, underscores the defensive aspect. This point is extremely relevant in the case of NMD. The impact of NMD on Russia and its nuclear security is significant. Russia today, according to The Center For Defense Information, “can barely cope with U.S offensive power, let alone a combination of offensive and defensive” [National Missile Defense: What Does It All Mean?-A CDI Issue Brief, (enclosed with the attached EXHIBITS as the APPENDIX to Volume-I)]. The report also emphasizes the fact that, “if Russia wants to overwhelm an NMD shield it must plan to launch massively and quickly in a crisis”. If the U.S decides to follow Space Command’s language in carrying out U.S policy by “dominating the space dimension of military operations to protect U.S interests and investments” through its ability to integrate space forces “into warfighting capabilities across the full spectrum of conflict”, then the aggressive side of U.S force capabilities will be unleashed in violation of the ICJ ruling and the understandings contained in the 1972 ABM Treaty. The offensive nature of NMD engages the U.S in a historically new project by embarking upon the militarization of space. The militarization of space, for analytical purposes, should be understood as the aggressive nuclearization of space (my term) for offensive purposes.

    The 1972 ABM Treaty states that the parties declare that it is “their intention to achieve [at] the earliest possible date the cessation of the nuclear arms race and to take effective measures toward reductions of strategic arms, nuclear disarmament, and general and complete disarmament”. Further, the treaty states that the parties desire “to contribute to the relaxation of international tension and the strengthening of trust between States.” In conjunction with this purpose, it is appropriate to interpret the ICJ ruling in which a unanimous conclusion was reached that upholds the finding that any use of nuclear weapons contrary to Article 2 (4) of United Nations Charter, and not vindicated by Article 51, is “unlawful”. It was agreed by all the judges that a threat or use of nuclear weapons is governed by “the international law applicable in armed conflict, particularly those of the principles and rules of humanitarian law, as well as [by] specific obligations” arising from treaties and other undertakings that “expressly deal with nuclear weapons”. On this matter, this finding was not challenged by any nuclear weapons states in their pleading.

    The plan of U.S Space Command and the Bush administration, as outlined in, Vision For 2020, reflects none of these propositions. Rather, the reports states in no unequivocal terms that, “just as land dominance, sea control, and air superiority, have become elements of current military strategy, space superiority is emerging as an essential element of battlefield success and future warfare” [EXHIBIT 6]. This plan, contradicts all of the aforementioned laws, rules, conventions, charters, and treaties since the 1970s. In part, American high technology weapons, ever since the 1991 Persian Gulf War, have laid the basis of the phenomenal pace of innovation in the modern computer industry which, in turn, has led directly into a virtual revolution in military affairs. Defense analysts have posited that we are on the threshold of a revolution in military affairs (RMA). RMA proponents “believe that military technology, and the resulting potential of radically new types of warfighting tactics and strategies is advancing at a rate unrivaled since the 1930s and 1940s”. These changes reflect radical developments in offensive forces, not defensive forces, as alleged by the Bush administration. Dennis M. Ward has argued that, “American policymakers’ interest in both theatre and national missile defenses is driven by their perceptions of new ballistic missile threats. The threats stem from the proliferation of relatively unsophisticated missiles, not from exotic technologies.” Unfortunately the U.S Space command and the Bush administration have continued to worked in collusion with the civilian and military sectors dedicated to achieving the goal of “global engagement” that “combines global surveillance with the potential for a space-based global precision strike capability” [EXHIBIT 6].

    In the aftermath of the ICJ decision, Professor Falk has argued that it is the obligation of all nuclear states to pursue their good faith obligations by bringing to a conclusion negotiations leading to nuclear disarmament and all of its aspects. According to Falk, such an obligation entails giving “weight to the legal commitment by the nuclear weapons states to pursue disarmament as a serious policy goal”. Professor Terrence E. Paupp, in his study, Achieving Inclusionary Governance: Advancing Peace and Development in First and Third World Nations, has emphasized the fact that “genuine security and a peaceful world order cannot be premised upon notions of ‘deterrence’ and ‘balance of power’ because a spiral of violence is created by these concepts so that the exercise of power becomes self-defeating…the process that is identified by the spiral model of conflict is associated with the characteristics I have attributed to the leadership and policies of exclusionary states”. The U.S may be depicted as an exclusionary state on the international stage in light of the fact that it retains a strategic focus on the “balance of power” paradigm as its governing principle, it has reinvigorated justifications for unilateral actions in defiance of allies and potential adversaries, and has demonstrated a fidelity to an isolationist credo in an age of “globalization” and interdependence among nation-states. By retaining a “balance of power” focus, the U.S along with the most important nuclear weapon states, has betrayed an arms control approach that is based on minimizing the risks of possessing nuclear weapons. Rather than minimizing the risks, it has enhanced them. In fact, the U.S has periodically, in times of diplomatic and political crisis, actually threatened to use them [EXHIBITS 3 (p.16.), 4].

    Significantly, the legal endorsement of disarmament, also amounts, even if unwittingly, to a sharp criticism of the nuclear weapons states for their abandonment of any serious pursuit of disarmament goals in recent decades. If the ICJ advisory opinion is to achieve any meaning, it must be within the context of helping the advocacy of those committed to nuclear disarmament, demilitarization, and ultimately the abolition of all nuclear weapons on land, sea, and outer space. Such a conclusion demands a thorough condemnation of NMD and its associated technologies.

    (H) The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)

    In Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the relevant treaty obligation provides: “Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effect measure relating to the cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty of general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control” (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, July 1, 1968, 21 UST 483, 729 UNTS 161). Based on this provision, the ICJ found unanimously that “[t]here exists an obligation to pursue in good faith and bring to a conclusion negotiations leading to nuclear disarmament in all its aspects in strict and effective international control”[Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons, Advisory opinion of July 8, 1996, 35 ILM 809 & 1343, 1996, para. 105 (2) (F)]. The ICJ’s advisory opinion of July 8, 1996, expanded on the phrase, “and bring to a conclusion” as follows: “the legal import of that obligation goes beyond that of a mere obligation of conduct: the obligation involved here is an obligation to achieve a precise result-nuclear disarmament in all of its aspects-by adopting a particular course of conduct, namely, the pursuit of negotiations on the matter in good faith” (paragraph 99).

    The significance of the ICJ’s additional language is to underscore the obligation, which exists to pursue negotiations in good faith toward a particular result-namely, a duty to make all reasonable efforts to reach the goal of disarmament through the negotiating process. The problem is that the Court’s finding does not dictate any timetable or negotiating forum for reaching this result. The failure to establish either a specific timetable or a particular negotiating forum, has resulted in the current crisis surrounding the NMD proposals and the continuing advocacy of TMD strategies. For example, on May 23, 2000, Governor George W. Bush, proclaimed, “it is time to leave the Cold War behind, and defend against the new threats of the 21st century. America must build effective missile defenses, based on the best available options, at the earliest possible date”. On May 1, 2001, President George W. Bush, stated: “more nations have nuclear weapons and still more have nuclear aspirations…Some have already have developed a ballistic missile technology that would allow them to deliver weapons of mass destruction at long distances and incredible speeds, and a number of these countries are spreading these technologies around the world”. These statements of candidate Bush and later President Bush demonstrate the tragic consequences of the American National Security State failed to act on the ICJ Advisory Opinion which calls for meeting an obligation to achieve the precise result of nuclear disarmament in all of its aspects [EXHIBITS 13-22]. Hence, the continuing relevance and importance of a CTBT is even more apparent. The fact that there have been no good faith negotiations on the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the testing of nuclear weapons, or the first steps toward genuine disarmament has created the political and economic opportunity for R&D investment in NMD and the deployment of NMD/TMD.

    The response of most European countries, with regard to the planned NMD system, has been negative. According to the Center For Defense Information, “the NMD plans put the European countries in a position of assisting a program aimed at providing additional safety for the United States but doing so at the likely expense of their own security. Many European states do not agree with the threat assessment that has led to NMD’s conception in the first place. All oppose any steps that would violate the AMB Treaty.” [EXHIBITS 9, F, G, K, N, O, P, R, T, U, W, Y,]

    Rising levels of fear throughout the entire Asia-Pacific region match the negative response of most of the European countries to Bush’s NMD stance. The introduction of TMD and its impact on security in the Asia-Pacific region has exacerbated China’s fears, increased tension in the Taiwan Straits, and sabotaged negotiations for reconciliation between North and South Korea [EXHIBIT Q]. Further, the Bush administration seems to be leading the United States into an intensified and unnecessary conflict with China. This trend is entirely reckless insofar as China’s foreign policy is predictable. China has never been a global power or thought itself an actor in global affairs, like the European great powers or the United States [EXHIBIT A]. Laying the groundwork for potential hostilities with China, the Bush administration has proposed to tell the Chinese government that it would not object to a missile build up by the Chinese in order to win Chinese acquiescence for an American NMD program [EXHIBIT B]. The American strategy is pursuing a foreign policy course developed by Donald Rumsfeld in the early 1970s under President Gerald Ford. It was a poor proposal at that time and a worse one at the dawn of the 21st century [EXHIBIT C].

    With the nomination of General Richard M. Myers, a former head of Air Forces and Space Command, to the position of chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, there is reason for greater consternation among opponents of NMD, in particular, and the international community at the large. General Myers’ nomination is important because it signals the commitment that President Bush and Secretary Rumsfeld have toward an NMD program. The nineteen months General Myers spent as head of the Space Command, ending in February 2000, gave him a familiarity with the kinds of technology the program would use [EXHIBIT M]. Senator Joseph Biden has assaulted President Bush’s foreign policy focus on NMD, because, he maintains, “everything-including relations with Russia and China, even NATO-is viewed through the prism of missile defense, which is dangerous and potentially disastrous. It weakens us. It weakens NATO. And it weakens our ability to deal with the real threats”. [EXHIBIT R]

    In combination, Article V1 of the NPT, the 1999 defeat of the CTBT in the U.S Senate, and the proposed withdrawal of the U.S from the 1972 ABM Treaty all signal a ruthless disregard of the clear mandates contained in key instruments of international law. Further, despite denials Under Secretary of State, John R. Bolton, of a strict deadline for Russia to accept changes to the ABM Treaty by November 2001, the Bush administration has continued to push for the militarization of outer-space in violation of the good faith principles demanded by the ICJ advisory opinion of 1996 [EXHIBIT 22]. The domestic debate within the U.S over the wisdom of pursuing investment in NMD has become overly conflated with the September 11, 2001 bombing of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. For the first time in American history, in July, 2001, the defense of the “American homeland” was incorporated into guidelines of American military strategy and also used to request more money from congress in order to spend countless billions of dollars in developing a high- tech missile defense [EXHIBIT 19].

    If congress allocates funds for a truly “defensive” system, then congress must also mandate that such an expenditure does not violate any provisions of the 1972 ABM Treaty. A congressional mandate ensuring the integrity of the 1972 ABM Treaty is essential for the sake of constraining the course and scope of R&D to purely defensive, not offensive, capabilities. Should the advocates of NMD prevail in undermining attempts in the U.S Senate to protect the existing safeguards contained in the treaty, then there will be no effective legal restraint remaining to keep NMD research and deployment from transmuting into an offensive war fighting capability with existing military technologies.

    In terms of substantive international law, and in the mind of the American general public, the salient feature of the Nuremberg trials was the decision that individuals could be held guilty for participation in the planning and waging of “a war of aggression”. As the International Tribunal at Nuremberg put the matter in its judgment: “…individuals have international duties which transcend the national obligations of obedience imposed by the individual state. He who violates the laws of war cannot obtain immunity while acting in pursuance of the authority of the state if the state in authorizing the action moves outside under international law”. Under this standard, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, the leadership of Space Command, President Bush, and the corporate interests behind NMD (Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Raytheon, TRW), maybe held guilty for participation in the planning of a “war of aggression” [EXHIBITS C, D, E, H, I, J, L, M, N, P, R, X, Y, 4-22]. Space Command’s report, Vision For 2020, reveals that the interest of the military is not defense, but the protection of U.S.-based investments and commercial interests [EXHIBITS N, 6, 10-12].

    Conclusion: International Duties Transcending National Obligations

    In retrospect, the crusade by the advocates of NMD signals a back-to-the-future scenario, repeating the same depleted arguments of the Reagan administration. Prospectively, the crusade by the advocates of NMD constitutes a vision of a United States that is disconnected from the rest of the world. In the words of William D. Hartung, the President’s Fellow at the World Policy Institute at New School University, “the unifying vision behind the Bush doctrine is nuclear unilateralism, the notion that the United States can and will make its own decisions about the size, composition and employment of its nuclear arsenal without reference to arms control agreements or the opinions of other nations”. It is essential, in the area of NMD/TMD that the United States give up its unilateralism if humanity is to survive and prevail as a species. Such a view demands that the American foreign policy framework, employed since the end of World War II, must be discarded and reconfigured. This will mean taking the problem of exclusionary governance and exclusionary states more seriously. This will mean taking the promise and challenge of achieving inclusionary governance and the building of inclusionary states more seriously.

    Exclusionary states are a reflection of the fact that, “in many parts of the Third World, economic systems function primarily to benefit a relatively limited number of people, and political systems are frequently manipulated to guarantee continued elite dominance. The general public often has little or no opportunity to influence the policy-making process or to participate fully in the economic system. These domestic inequalities, along with an international economic system not designed to operate in the interests of Third World countries, are at the root of underdevelopment.” In this situation, it is incumbent upon the nuclear states, especially the U.S., to move beyond the traditional preoccupation with its narrowly defined national interest (elite-centered) and begin to address the larger human interest. This means that a “better U.S. strategy toward the developing world as a whole will require an overhaul of the structures and processes of policy making.”

    Global Inclusionary Governance in the 21st Century

    The United States has international duties transcending national obligations. In this critical regard, the NMD/TMD approach to global governance is antithetical to building a peaceful, just, or secure world. Rather, the employment and deployment of NMD/TMD systems threaten the integrity of the entire international legal order and the objective living conditions of humanity as a whole. The waste and danger coupled with such an expenditure of resources cannot be either legitimated or rationalized in this content, in this early part of the 21st century.

    If the promise and binding force of the 1945 Nuremberg Principles are to have any meaning and application in building more accountable states, advancing peace between nations, establishing accountability within and between states, then the U.S., the United Nations, and the entire international community, must reject the NMD/TMD approach to global governance and human security. Instead, a new definition of human security must emerge that is no longer primarily prefigured by the imprints and images of the military-industrial mind. Rather, the achievement of inclusionary governance demands the following:

    First, structures and policies that allow for the continued investment in and expansion of both nuclear and non-nuclear assets shall be dismantled and replaced with peacekeeping and monitoring institutions.

    Second, in recognition of the fact that spending on nuclear and non-nuclear assets depletes both First and Third World economies, it shall be the task of inclusionary governments and inclusionary regimes to embark upon the deepening of democratic norms, practices and policies so as to alter current spending priorities (especially in NMD/TMD).

    Third, the necessity to embark upon a path toward inclusionary governance and demilitarization is supported by accumulated scientific evidence, which proves that the exchange and/or detonation of just a few nuclear bombs will have the capacity to create a global condition known as “nuclear winter” that could lead to climate catastrophe, agricultural collapse, and world famine.

    Fourth, the history and evolution of international law is moving in the direction of disarmament and has the capacity to build a global institutional structure that supports an alternative security system. Such a system must lead toward the effective subordination of military establishments of the nation-states under the rubric of values, principles, policies and goals of inclusionary governance.

    Fifth, the historical experience of war and conflict has proven that a failure to recognize the influence of pre-existing beliefs has implications for decision making and that, therefore, the process of decision making must become more inclusionary so as to overcome a history and practice of concealment, secrecy and distortion through propaganda as well as bureaucratic and media manipulation.

    Sixth, genuine security and a peaceful world order cannot be premised upon notions of “deterrence” and “balance of power” because a spiral of violence is created by these concepts so that the exercise of power becomes self-defeating (i.e., the publication of U.S. Space Command, (Vision For 2020).

    Seventh, and finally, the recognized need for a global security policy which places emphasis upon non-military incentives to channel government’s behavior empowers the international system to give added support to an expanded role for international organizations or security regimes to facilitate cooperation and regulate inter-group conflict.

    Establishing a New Congressional Role

    In all of the aforementioned principles surrounding the principles of inclusionary governance there is one underlying requirement that has profound relevance for the U.S Congress in meeting its constitutional responsibilities. That requirement is in the category of congressional oversight of the executive branch. Specifically, the oversight of Pentagon contracting with major industries and corporations, as well as oversight with respect to procurement decisions and policies, constitutes a primary and fundamental role for the nation’s security.

    With regard to the Star Wars project in 1993, The New York Times reported that the Star Wars project rigged a crucial 1984 test and faked other data in a “program of deception that misled congress as well as the intended target, the Soviet Union.” Former Reagan administration officials said that a program of deception had been approved by Casper W. Weinberger (Secretary of Defense from 1981 to 1987). Mr. Weinberger denied that Congress was deceived but argued that deceiving one’s enemies is natural and necessary to any major military initiative. The lesson to be drawn from this deception, in the context of the NMD debate of 2001-2002, is that congressional oversight and investigations into the actions and activities of the executive branch and the Pentagon is essential to maintaining any semblance of democratic accountability. It is also necessary for the sake of overcoming the inherent limitations of the mind-set of the military-industrial complex. I, therefore, propose the following policy changes for the U.S Congress to initiate in order to maintain democratic accountability with respect to NMD funding:

    1. Enhancing Congressional-Oversight

    As the Congress considers the cost of an NMD program, it must take into account numerous lessons that may be learned from the past. For example, in June of 1993, The New York Times reported that federal investigators had determined that the Pentagon misled Congress about both the cost and necessity of many weapons systems built in the decade of the 1980’s to counter the military forces of the Soviet Union. Eight reports from a three-year study by the General Accounting Office (GAO) exposed a pattern of exaggeration and deception by military leaders. In particular, the B-52 bomber, the B-1 bombers, and the B-2 bomber, were cited in the reports as part of a pattern in which the Pentagon misrepresented certain facts to the Congress in order to maintain or increase financing for new nuclear-weapons systems. In the year 2001, it may well be that that Rumsfeld Report of 1998 on the relevance of NMD will fall into the same category. In fact, in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was sharply questioned about the high cost and unproven effectiveness of an NMD system and the Bush administration’s threats to withdraw from the 1972 ABM Treaty [EXHIBITS C, V]. Rumsfeld was forced to admit that the technology did not exist and could not guarantee any specific date at which it would be available for defensive purposes.

    2. Combating Terrorism Does Not Justify Investments in NMD

    In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center and Pentagon terrorist attacks, Rumsfeld stated that “it is the asymmetric threats that are a risk, and they include terrorism, they include ballistic missiles, they include cyber-attacks” [EXHIBIT 19]. Despite the attempted linkage of disparate and unrelated threats to U.S. national security, the Rumsfeld analysis cannot stand the test of critical analysis. In the final analysis, terrorist attacks are a symptom rather than a cause of the underlying global maladies of our age.

    Terrorist attacks are, in large measure, an expression of the powerless position of persons and groups who come from exclusionary states at the periphery of the international capitalist system. Behind the frustration of generations, there is a history of colonialism, imperialism, and great power rivalry. Where widespread poverty and deprivation is the rule, rather than the exception, there is little empirical support for the proposition that a truly “defensive” NMD system could prevent such attacks even if a truly “defensive” system existed [EXHIBIT 21]. Where poverty and deprivation have reigned supreme, there is no basis for alleging the possibility of a missile attack. The real source of U.S. support for investment in and the proposed deployment of a NMD system is largely a domestic concern, more closely associated with peacetime military spending than with the actual world situation. On this matter, Robert Higgs has argued: “if an effective NMD system is ever successfully produced-a big “if”-it will certainly have cost far more than the presently projected amount. Unfortunately, that vast expenditure will have availed little or nothing in the provision of genuine national security, for an enemy can always choose to play a different game, foiling the best -laid NMD plans by firing a nuclear-armed cruise missile from a ship lying off New York, or by delivering a chemical or biological weapon of mass death tucked into a shipment of cocaine bound for Los Angeles, or by any number of other means immune to the missile defense system”.

    3. Establishing New Forms Of Arms Control

    Ever since the mid-1980s, scholars, government officials and military experts have admitted that the deployment of a Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system will not facilitate the limitation and reduction of offensive forces. In fact, “if the adversary’s deployment of strategic defense is understood to reflect aggressive intentions, as it almost certainly would be” then nuclear states are likely “to be unable to pursue offensive limits or any other form of arms control.”[Italics mine] The planned deployment of space-based weapons, as proposed in, Vision For 2020, represents “aggressive intentions” by the U.S military to dominate space and earth for the purpose of achieving “war fighting capabilities across the full spectrum of conflict”[EXHIBIT 6].

    The entire U.S Congress must be concerned with establishing new forms of arms control. In this technologically driven environment, which operates behind the camouflage of what defense analysts have euphemistically termed a “revolution in military affairs” [RMA], the Pentagon’s official version of RMA disguises its true intent, which is to embark upon the militarization of space. It focuses on “information systems, sensors, new weapons concepts, much lighter and more deployable military vehicles, missile defenses, and other capabilities…Precision engagement conjures up images of very accurate and long-range firepower. Full dimensional protection suggests, among other things, highly effective missile defenses”. Throughout history, “military revolutions” have been driven by vast social and political changes. “Revolutions in military affairs” have marked war in the Western world since the 14th century. These revolutions are inevitable but difficult if not impossible to predict. In the context of NMD, new forms of arms control must be established in order to avoid a multiplicity of contradictory and conflicting paths, which are antithetical to America’s genuine security.

    America’s genuine security is intimately tied to international agreements such as the CTBT, the NPT, and the ABM Treaty. These agreements are obviously tied and connected to the expectations and stability of other nations. America’s international responsibilities and global power can never be reduced to military calculations, technological superiority, or economic dominance. Rather, America’s ultimate responsibilities can only be effectuated through political trust. Missile defense will destroy political trust. For example, “when the U.S and Japan pursue missile defenses, they do so out of the mentality of ‘fortress ourselves.’ That creates and intensifies distrust and tension among concerned nations that will in turn work as reasons for further arms races and will never be able to serve as forces for building stability”.

    4. Keeping the Nuremberg Principles Alive in the 21st Century

    The late 20th century revealed, in stark horror, the tragedy of genocide in Rwanda and Kosovo. Once again, the specter of “ethnic cleansing” had raised its head. Yet, crimes against humanity can take many forms. According to the International Tribunal at Nuremberg, such crimes must also contemplate “crimes against peace”. As Professor Richard Falk has noted: “The decision to prosecute German and Japanese leaders as war criminals after World War II, although flawed as a legal proceeding, represents an important step forward. It creates a precedent for the idea that leaders of governments and their subordinate officials are responsible for their acts and can be brought to account before an international tribunal. It affirms the reality of crimes against humanity and crimes against peace, as well as the more familiar crimes arising from violations of the laws of war.”

    Proposals for NMD contemplate the inclusion of a variety of offensive weapons capabilities that lend themselves to a hegemonic dominance of the globe, the reinforcement of regimes of exclusion, poverty-producing financial orders, and a deepening gulf between the haves and have-nots. Hence, the NMD scenario represents “imperial overreach”. In the 20th century, its origin may be traced to Wernher von Braun. As a technical leader in the Third Reich’s program of the militarization of space, he embarked upon embracing the goal of creating weapons of terror and mass destruction. His ideological heir, Edward Teller, brought the dream to America. As the father of the H-bomb, he laid the foundation for the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) under President Reagan. However, Teller swept responsible science under the rug and led America into the fantasy of NMD, in pursuit of the most dangerous military program of all time.

    We, on this planet, can neither allow nor permit the slow undoing of treaty commitments embodied in the 1972-ABM Treaty, block the application of the Nuremberg Principles, or ignore the lessons contained in diplomatic history and the history of conflict resolution. Rather, it is our task as human beings to recognize and honor our common humanity. In recognizing our common humanity, we also recognize the dangers of pride and arrogance when coupled to power. The possession and exercise of power requires both wisdom and restraint. The production, deployment, and potential use of NMD and TMD reflect neither wisdom nor restraint. It is, therefore, incumbent upon us, in this generation, to advance a strategy of peace that emphasizes the value of inclusionary governance at the state and international level. For, in the final analysis, it is not the triumph of exclusionary forms of governance and decision making that will enhance the chances for peace but, rather, it is the achievement of inclusionary governance in all of our deliberations that makes peace and development possible and achievable for all people on this small planet.

    _____________________________________________________ Footnotes

    Telford Taylor, Nuremberg and Vietnam: An American Tragedy, Bantam Books, c. 1971, pp. 83-84. Vision 2020 is available online at, www.spacecom.af.mil/usspace/visbook.pdf. Kevin Martin, Rachel Glick, Rachel Ries, Tim Nafziger, and Mark Swier, “The Real Rogues: Behind the Star Wars Missile Defense System”, Z-Magazine, September 2000, pp. 29-33. Rosy Nimroody, senior project director for, The Council on Economic Priorities, Star Wars: The Economic Fallout, Ballinger Publishing company, c. 1988, pp. 27 and 206. Center For Defense Information, National Missile Defense: What Does It All Mean?— a CDI Issue Brief, c. 2000, p. 1. John D. Steinbruner, “NMD and the Wistful Pursuit of Common Sense”, National Security Studies Quarterly, Summer 2000, Volume VI, Issue #3, p.114. Heather A Purcell and James K. Galbraith, “Did the U.S. Military Plan a Nuclear First Strike for 1963?”, The American Prospect, Fall 1994, p.88. Id., p.96. John F. Kennedy, speech to the United Nations General Assembly, New York, September 25, 1961, “Let The Word Go Forth”: The Speeches, Statements, and Writings of John F. Kennedy, Selected and with an Introduction by Theodore C. Sorenson, Delcorte Press, p.380. John D. Steinbruner, “NMD and the Wistful Pursuit of Common Sense”, National Security Studies Quarterly, Summer 2000, Volume VI, Issue 3, p.112. Thomas Graham Jr., Robert McNamara, and Jack Mendelsohn, “NATO-and Peace- Would Gain From a No-first-Use Policy”, Los Angeles Times, December 15, 1999, p. B-9. Charles L. Glaser and Steve Fetter, “National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S Nuclear Weapons Policy”, International Security, Vol. 26, No. 1 (Summer 2001), p. 41. Senator Tom Daschle, as quoted in, ” Ballistic Missile Defense: Shield or Sword?” by Carah Ong, Waging Peace: News letter of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, Summer 2001, Vol. 11, No. 2, p 7. Richard Falk, Lee Meyrowitz, and Jack Sanderson, ” Nuclear Weapons and International Law,” The Indian Journal of International Law, Vol. 20, 1980. p. 595. “Legality of The threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons” (advisory opinion of July 8, 1996), 35 ILM 809 & 1343 (1996) [ hereinafter, Opinion for UNGA ]; and “Legality of the use by a State of Nuclear Weapons in Armed Conflict”, 1996 ICJ Rep. 66 (Advisory Opinion of July 8 ) [ hereinafter Opinion for WHO] Ved P. Nanda and David Krieger, Nuclear Weapons and the World Court, Transnational Publishers, Inc. c. 1998 Richard Falk, ” Nuclear Weapons, International Law and the World Court: A Historic Encounter”, The American Journal of International Law, Vol. 91, No. 1, January 1997, p.64. Center For Defense Information, National Missile Defense: What Does It All Mean? A CDI Issue Brief, c. 2000, p.20. Ibid., p 21. Richard Falk, “Nuclear Weapons, International Law and The World Court: A Historic Encounter”, American Journal of International Law, Vol. 91, No. 1, January 1997, p. 65. Micheal O’Hanlon, Technological Change and the Future of Warfare, Bookings Institution Press, c. 2000, p.7. Dennis M. Ward, ” The Changing Technological Environment”, Rockets’ Red Glare: Missile Defenses and the Future of World Politics, edited by James J. Wirtz and Jeffery A. Larsen, Westview Press, c. 2001, p. 80. Richard Falk, “Nuclear Weapons, International Law, and The World Court: A Historic Encounter”, American Journal Of International Law, Vol.91, No.1, January 1997, p. 65 Terrence E. Paupp, Achieving Inclusionary Governance: Advancing Peace And Development In First And Third World Nations, Transnational Publishers, Inc. c. 2000, p. 101 Ibid., p. 76 George W. Bush, “New Leadership on National Security”, May 23 2000, as quoted in, Rockets’ Red Glare: Missile Defenses and The Future of World Politics, edited by, James J. Wirtz and Jeffrey A. Larsen, Westview Press, c. 2001, p. 331 Ibid, p.334 Center For Defense Information, National Missile Defense: What Does It All Mean?-A CDI Issue Brief, c.2000, p.36. Senator Joseph Biden, Jr. (D-Delaware), as quoted in, “Democrats Plan Attack On Missile Defense”, Los Angeles Times, September 10, 2001. I Trial of the Major War Criminals before the International Military Tribunal (Nuremberg, 1947), p. 223, as quoted in, Telford Taylor, Nuremberg and Vietnam: An American Tragedy, Bantam Books, c. 1971, p. 84. William D. Hartung, “Bush’s Nuclear Revival”, The Nation, March 12, 2001, p.4. Terrence E. Paupp, Achieving Inclusionary Governance: Advancing Peace and Development in First and Third World Nations, Transnational Publishers, Inc., 2000. Nicolle Ball, Security and Economy in the Third World, Princeton University Press, c.1988, p.390. Robert Chase, Emily Hill, and Paul Kennedy, editors, The Pivotal States: A New Framework for U.S. Policy in the Developing World, W.W. Norton & Company, c.1999, p. 425. Terrence E. Paupp, Achieving Inclusionary Governance: Advancing Peace and Development in First and Third World Nations, Transnational Publishers, Inc., c. 2000, pp.84-104. Tim Weiner, “Lies and Rigged ‘Star Wars’ Test Fooled the Kremlin, and Congress”, The New York Times, August 18, 1993. Tim Weiner, “Military Is Accused of Lying on Arms for Decade”, The New York Times, June 28, 1993, p.A-8. Ernest A. Fitzgerald, The Pentagonists: An Insider’s View of Waste, Management, and Fraud in Defense Spending, Houghton Mifflin, 1989, p. 132. Robert Higgs, “The Cold War Is Over, But U.S Preparation Continues”, The Independent Review: A Journal of Political Economy, Vol. VI, No.2, Fall 2001, p. 300. Charles L. Glaser, “Do We Want The Missile Defenses We Can Build?” The Star Wars Controversy: An International Security Reader, edited by Steven E. Miller and Stephan Van Evera, Princeton University Press, c. 1986, p.113. Michael O’Hanlon, Technological Change and the Future Of Warfare, Brookings Institution Press, c. 2000, p.19. Macgregor Knox, Williamson Murray, editors, The Dynamics of Military Revolution, Cambridge University Press, c. 2001; John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, W.W. Norton & Company, c. 2001; Michael O’Hanlon, “Alternative Architectures and U.S Politics”, Rockets’ Red Glare: Missile Defenses and the Future of World Politics, James J. Wirtz and Jeffrey A. Larsen, editors, Westview Press, c. 2001; Steven Lambakis, On The Edge of Earth: The Future of American Space Power, The University Press of Kentucky, c. 2001; Gordon R. Mitchell, Strategic Deception: Rhetoric, Science, and Politics in Missile Defense Advocacy, Michigan State University Press, c. 2000; David Krieger and Carah Ong, editors, A Maginot Line In The Sky: International Perspectives On Ballistic Missile Defense, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, c. 2001. Samsung Lee, “Missile Defenses And The Korean Peninsulas”, A Maginot Line In The Sky: International Perspectives On Ballistic Missile Defense, David Krieger and Carah Ong, editors, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, c. 2001, p. 30. Richard Falk, “Keeping Nuremberg Alive”, International Law: A Contemporary Perspective, edited by Richard Falk, Friedrich Kratochwil, and Saul H. Medlovitz, Westview Press, c.1985, p.494. Dennis Piszkiewicz, The Nazi Rocketeers: Dreams of Space and Crimes of War, Praeger, c.1995. William J. Broad, Teller’s War: The Top Secret Story Behind the Star Wars Deception, Simon & Schuster, c.1992.

    *Terrence Edward Paupp, J.D. is a Nuclear Age Peace Foundation Policy Analyst; National Chancellor of the United States, for the International Association of Educators for World Peace (IAEWP); on the Advisory Board of, The Association of World Citizens; Professor of Politics and International Law, National University, San Diego, CA.

  • Treaties Don’t Belong to Presidents

    New Haven– President Bush has told the Russians that he will withdraw from the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, which gives both countries the right to terminate on six months’ notice. But does the president have the constitutional authority to exercise this power without first obtaining Congressional consent?

    Presidents don’t have the power to enter into treaties unilaterally. This requires the consent of two-thirds of the Senate, and once a treaty enters into force, the Constitution makes it part of the “supreme law of the land” just like a statute.

    Presidents can’t terminate statutes they don’t like. They must persuade both houses of Congress to join in a repeal. Should the termination of treaties operate any differently?

    The question first came up in 1798. As war intensified in Europe, America found itself in an entangling alliance with the French under treaties made during our own revolution. But President John Adams did not terminate these treaties unilaterally. He signed an act of Congress to “Declare the Treaties Heretofore Concluded with France No Longer Obligatory on the United States.”

    The next case was in 1846. As the country struggled to define its northern boundary with Canada, President James Polk specifically asked Congress for authority to withdraw from the Oregon Territory Treaty with Great Britain, and Congress obliged with a joint resolution. Cooperation of the legislative and executive branches remained the norm, despite some exceptions, during the next 125 years.

    The big change occurred in 1978, when Jimmy Carter unilaterally terminated our mutual defense treaty with Taiwan. Senator Barry Goldwater responded with a lawsuit, asking the Supreme Court to maintain the traditional system of checks and balances. The court declined to make a decision on the merits of the case. In an opinion by Justice William Rehnquist, four justices called the issue a political question inappropriate for judicial resolution. Two others refused to go this far but joined the majority for other reasons. So by a vote of 6 to 3, the court dismissed the case.

    Seven new justices have since joined the court, and there is no predicting how a new case would turn out. Only one thing is clear. In dismissing Senator Goldwater’s complaint, the court did not endorse the doctrine of presidential unilateralism. Justice Rehnquist expressly left the matter for resolution “by the executive and legislative branches.” The ball is now in Congress’s court. How should it respond?

    First and foremost, by recognizing the seriousness of this matter. If President Bush is allowed to terminate the ABM treaty, what is to stop future presidents from unilaterally taking America out of NATO or the United Nations?

    The question is not whether such steps are wise, but how democratically they should be taken. America does not enter into treaties lightly. They are solemn commitments made after wide-ranging democratic debate. Unilateral action by the president does not measure up to this standard.

    Unilateralism might have seemed more plausible during the cold war. The popular imagination was full of apocalyptic scenarios under which the nation’s fate hinged on emergency action by the president alone. These decisions did not typically involve the termination of treaties. But with the president’s finger poised on the nuclear button, it might have seemed unrealistic for constitutional scholars to insist on a fundamental difference between the executive power to implement our foreign policy commitments and the power to terminate them.

    The world now looks very different. America’s adversaries may inveigh against its hegemony, but for America’s friends, the crucial question is how this country will exercise its dominance. Will its power be wielded by a single man ˜ unchecked by the nation’s international obligations or the control of Congress? Or will that power be exercised under the democratic rule of law?

    Barry Goldwater’s warning is even more relevant today than 20 years ago. The question is whether Republicans will heed his warning against “a dangerous precedent for executive usurpation of Congress’s historically and constitutionally based powers.” Several leading senators signed this statement that appeared in Senator Goldwater’s brief ˜ including Orrin Hatch, JesseHelms and Strom Thurmond, who are still serving. They should defend Congress’s power today, as they did in the Carter era.

    If they join with Democrats in raising the constitutional issue, they will help establish a precedent that will endure long after the ABM treaty is forgotten. Congress should proceed with a joint resolution declaring that Mr. Bush cannot terminate treaty obligations on his own. And if the president proceeds unilaterally, Congress should take further steps to defend its role in foreign policy.

    We need not suppose that the president will respond by embarking on a collision course with Congress. His father, for example, took a different approach to constitutionally sensitive issues. When members of Congress went to court to challenge the constitutionality of the Persian Gulf war, President George H. W. Bush did not proceed unilaterally. To his great credit, he requested and received support from both houses of Congress before making war against Saddam Hussein. This decision stands as one precedent for the democratic control of foreign policy in the post-cold war era. We are now in the process of creating another.

    *Bruce Ackerman is Professor of Constitutional Law at Yale Law School and co-author of “Is Nafta Constitutional?”

  • Ballistic Missile Defense will Diminish Our Security

    Ballistic missile defense is a fraud on the American people. Those who promote missile defense promise something they cannot deliver — security from a nuclear attack. The truth is that deployment of missile defenses will make the United States and the rest of the world even less secure than they are today.

    Will a national missile defense work if deployed? It is very doubtful. We know that most tests of the system have failed, and that these failures have occurred when the testers knew in advance when a missile would be launched, from where it would be launched, and where it would be aimed. Given all this information, one would think it would be relatively easy to have successful tests. In a real world situation, none of this information would be available in advance.

    Additionally, in the real world an attacker would plan for the defensive system and release decoys along with the real warheads in order to confuse and confound the defensive system. This would make it even more difficult for a national missile defense system to be successful.

    The biggest problem with a national missile defense, however, is that potential “rogue” state attackers those the system is designed to protect against probably wouldn’t consider attacking the United States with ballistic missiles. It would be foolish for them to do so since a missile attack comes with a return address and the US would be able to respond with overwhelming force.

    If a “rogue” state wanted to attack the United States with a weapon of mass destruction, it would be far easier and safer for that country to deliver the weapon by means of ship, van or backpack. By attacking in this way, there would be no return address for the US to retaliate against. This would also be the most likely means by which terrorists could attack American cities.

    In addition to being ineffective to protect the US against potential “rogue” state attackers, missile defenses are threatening to Russia and China. These countries believe that deployment of missile defenses, even if ineffective, will put the US in the position to initiate a first-strike attack against them and then use the defensive system to knock down any of their missiles that survived the US attack.

    US deployment of missile defenses will further increase tensions with Russia and China and make an accidental nuclear war more likely. At one point, US officials even suggested to the Russians that they could assure themselves against a US attack by keeping Russian missiles on hair-trigger alert, ready to be launched on warning. This is very dangerous. US defense officials should be working with Russians to take all nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert. Failure to do so is irresponsible at best.

    US deployment of a National Missile Defense will throw more than 35 years of arms control efforts into disarray. It will violate the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties. It will be destabilizing to global security, and make the world a more dangerous place. That is why most countries, including US allies, are not enthusiastic about US plans for ballistic missile defenses.

    In sum, US ballistic missile defenses would be ineffective, destabilizing and dangerous. And yet, the US government appears willing to spend another $100 billion or perhaps even much more to deploy such systems. One can only wonder at this “spend now, think later” approach to national security.

    The alternative solution to increasing national and global security is US leadership toward a nuclear weapons free world. As recently as May 2000, the US, along with other nuclear weapons states, promised an “unequivocal undertaking…to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals.” We call for the US to take this promise seriously and to convene at the earliest possible time a meeting of all nuclear weapons states to move forward together in fulfilling their promises by developing an agreed-upon plan for the phased and verified elimination of all nuclear weapons from the planet.

    *David Krieger, an attorney and political scientist, is President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

  • Concerned Student Writes to President Bush

    Dear President Bush,

    My Name is Nelly Martinez. I am a student at Mount San Antonio College. Right now I am researching nuclear arms. Recently, a disturbing article came out about this particular subject in the Los Angeles Times. After researching and learning about the power of our nuclear arsenal, I was shocked and amazed at why we need such disastrous weapons. Maybe someone can help explain my misconceptions.

    In my mind, I believe the issue of having the most weapons is an issue of who has the bigger toy, or the bigger muscles. What about the opinions of the ordinary American citizens who do not have knowledge about nuclear issues? What about those who decide to just ignore the subject and place this issue in the back of their heads? It was a relief to hear that there is a treaty banning the testing of nuclear weapons. If one Trident submarine has enough firepower to wipe out the Northern Hemisphere and cause devastating effects, why do we need any more of such submarines? How can anyone want to destroy the life of other innocent human beings?

    There is no doubt that my life, the life of my family (whom I love and cherish with all my heart) and the life of future generations will be affected by a nuclear war. The fact is no one would survive a nuclear war. Isn’t that enough to get through the minds of the people in charge of these weapons? In my opinion, whoever decides to make more nuclear weapons is worse than Hitler. Such actions could result in a World Holocaust and it is doubtful that mankind could survive a nuclear winter.

    Please do not forget about the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But also, do not forget about the past in general so that we can learn from our mistakes. I know that the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are nothing in comparison to the capability we have now. I also know that if another country should strike the US with a nuclear weapon, we would without a doubt retaliate. This process of striking and reciprocating a nuclear attack could continue until mankind itself would be wiped out. I do support the Constitution’s “Right to Bear Arms,” but how far must we go?

    Here is a hypothetical example: We the Americans are up against the “enemy” standing in a pool of gas, representing our world, one side has 16,000 matches ready to ignite the other side has 30,000 matches. Who will win? One match alone (The firepower in one Trident sub) will do the job.

    I am here to plea for some kind of answer to my questions because I love my life, my country, my people and other people as well. I truly want my children’s children to live after I am gone from this earth. My dream is to live until I am old and not be vaporized by a nuclear bomb. Please Mr. President, help us keep peace with other countries and obey the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Once we violate this Treaty the United States has made with Russia, both countries will start making more unnecessary nuclear weapons.

    Sincerely,

    Nelly Martinez A Concerned Student and Citizen

  • U.S. and Russian Nuclear Defense Strategies are Fatally Flawed – They Can’t be Used Without Self-Destruction

    Nuclear Defense Strategies – The nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia, left-over from the Cold War, present the world with its greatest danger. These two arsenals have 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. The nuclear defense strategies for Russia and the U.S. are similar. Within minutes upon receiving instruction to fire, either one or both countries can launch thousands of missiles. These strategies are fatally flawed because launching thousands of nuclear weapons could destroy all countries including themselves.

     

    Global Danger – In a study made by the World Health Organization, they found that a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia could kill one billion people outright. In addition, it could produce a Nuclear Winter that would probably kill an additional one billion people. It is possible that more than two billion people, one-third of all the humans on Earth, would be destroyed almost immediately in the aftermath of a global thermonuclear war. The rest of humanity would be reduced to prolonged agony and barbarism. These findings are from a study chaired by Sune K. Bergstrom (the 1982 Nobel laureate in Physiology and Medicine) nearly 20 years ago. (1)

     

    Subsequent studies have had similar findings. Professor Alan Robock says, “Everything from purely mathematical models to forest fire studies shows that even a small nuclear war would devastate the earth. (2)

     

    Rich Small’s work, financed by the Defense Nuclear Agency, suggests that burning cities would produce a particularly troublesome variety of smoke. The smoke of forest fires is bad enough. But the industrial targets of cities are likely to produce a rolling, black smoke, a denser shield against incoming sunlight.(3)

     

    The late Dr. Carl Sagan and his associates in their studies found that a nuclear explosive force equal to 100 million tons of dynamite could create a global nuclear winter. (4) The U.S. and Russia each have on alert a nuclear explosive power more than 10 times greater than that needed to create a nuclear winter.

     

    Nuclear explosions with temperatures of 3,000 to 4,000 degrees centigrade at ground zero could start giant flash fires leaving large cities and forests burning with no one to fight them. Nuclear explosions can also lift an enormous quantity of fine soil particles into the atmosphere, creating more than l00,000 tons of fine, dense, dust for every megaton exploded on a surface. (5) This dust would add to the darkness and cold.

     

    Explosive Power Compared – Nuclear weapons are far more powerful than is generally realized.

     

    *The terrorist bomb that was detonated outside an office building in Oklahoma City in 1995 killed 168 people. This fertilizer and fuel bomb weighted 3 and 1/2 tons. (6)

     

    * A small nuclear warhead, that one person can lift can have an explosive power equal to 40,000 tons of dynamite, or 8,000 trucks each carrying 5 tons of dynamite, or 3 Hiroshima size bombs

     

    *One average size U.S. strategic nuclear warhead has an explosive force equal to 50,000 trucks each carrying 5 tons of dynamite.

     

    *If 1,000 of the average size 0U.S. warheads were used they could produce an explosive force equal to 50 million trucks each carrying 5 tons of dynamite.

     

    *One average size Russian strategic nuclear warhead has an explosive power equal to 40,000 trucks each carrying 5 tons of dynamite. (7)

     

    Leader’s Concern – General Lee Butler (USAF), former head of the US Strategic Command, said, “… twenty nuclear weapons would suffice to destroy the twelve largest Russian cities with a total population of twenty-five million people and therefore that arsenals in the hundreds, much less in the thousands, can serve no meaningful strategic objective.” (8) Twenty nuclear warheads is less than one percent of the nuclear weapons that the U.S. has set for hair-trigger release.

     

    Robert McNamara, former Secretary of Defense under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, says there was no long-range war plan. Neither Russia nor the U.S. wanted to get behind. Each side strove to build the greatest number of nuclear weapons. More importantly, he said, the totals far exceeded the requirements of any conceivable war plan. (9)

     

    Accidental Nuclear War – There have been at least three times in the past that the U.S. and Russia almost launched to false warnings. Each time they came within less than 10 minutes of launching before learning the warnings were false.

     

    * In l979, a U.S. training tape showing a massive attack was accidentally played.

     

    * In l983, a Soviet satellite mistakenly signaled the launch of a U.S. missile.

     

    * In 1995, Russia almost launched its missiles because a Norwegian rocket studying the northern lights was mistakenly taken as the start of a nuclear attack. (10)

     

    False warnings are a fact of life. For example, during an 18-month period in 1979-80 the U.S. had 147 false alarms in its strategic warning system. (11)

     

    Casper Weinberger, when he was President Reagan’s Defense Secretary, said that since an anti-ballistic missile defense could require decisions within seconds there would be no time for White House approval. Hitting a missile having a head start and going thousands of miles per hour does not allow much time to assess whether a warning is false or not. (12) Do we want computers determining our fate?

     

    Action – All countries with nuclear weapons need to assess what would be the consequences of their use, including possibility of self-destruction. Reporting these findings to the public could help build a better understanding of the need to rid the world of nuclear weapons.

     

    General Butler has said the world can immediately and inexpensively improve security by taking nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert. (13)

     

    Reference and Notes

     

    1. Sagan, Carl. The Nuclear Winter, Council for a Livable World Education, Boston, MA, 1983.

     

    2. Robock, Alan. “New models confirm nuclear winter,’ Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, September 1989, pp.32-35.. .

     

    3. Blum, Deborah, Scientists try to predict nuclear future from forest fires, The Sacramento Bee. Nov. 28, 1987.

     

    4. Sagan, Op. Cit.

     

    5. Ibid.

     

    6. Hamilton, Arnold. “McVeigh forgoes 2 final appeals,“ Contra Coast Times, June 8, 2001.

     

    7. Norris, Robert S. and Arkin, William. “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile,”’ Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/Aug. 96.

     

    8. Butler, Lee. Talk at the University of Pittsburgh , May13, 1999.

     

    9. McNamara, Robert. Blundering Into Disaster, Pantheon Books, New, York, 1986.

     

    10. Babst, Dean. “Preventing An Accidental Armageddon,” Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, Feb., 2000.

     

    11. Hart, Senator Gary and Goldwater, Senator Barry, Recent False Alerts from the Nation’s Missile Attack Warning System, a report to the Senate Armed Forces, 9 October, 1980, pp. 4 & 5.

     

    12. Strategic Defense and Anti-Satellite Weapons, hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, April 25, 1984, pp. 69-74.

     

    13. Schell, Jonathan, “The Gift Of Time,” The Nation, Feb. 8, 1998, p. 58.

  • Transcript: President Bush Speech on Missile Defense

    Thank you very much, Mr. Secretary. I appreciate you being here.

    I also want to thank Secretary Powell for being here as well.

    My national security advisor, Condi Rice, is here, as well as the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Myers. Appreciate Admiral Clark and General Ryan for being here as well. But most of all, I want to thank you, Admiral Gaffney, and the students for NDU for having me here today.

    For almost 100 years, this campus has served as one of our country’s premier centers for learning and thinking about America’s national security. Some of America’s finest soldiers have studied here: Dwight Eisenhower and Colin Powell. Some of America’s finest statesmen have taught here: George Kennan (ph).

    Today, you’re carrying on this proud tradition forward, continuing to train tomorrow’s generals, admirals and other national security thinkers, and continuing to provide the intellectual capital for our nation’s strategic vision.

    This afternoon, I want us to think back some 30 years to a far different time in a far different world. The United States and the Soviet Union were locked in a hostile rivalry. The Soviet Union was our unquestioned enemy, a highly armed threat to freedom and democracy. Far more than that wall in Berlin divided us.

    Our highest ideal was and remains individual liberty. Their’s was the construction of a vast communist empire. Their totalitarian regime held much of Europe captive behind an Iron Curtain. We didn’t trust them, and for good reason. Our deep differences were expressed in a dangerous military confrontation that resulted in thousands of nuclear weapons pointed at each other on hair-trigger alert.

    The security of both the United States and the Soviet Union was based on a grim premise that neither side would fire nuclear weapons at each other, because doing so would mean the end of both nations.

    We even went so far as to codify this relationship in a 1972 ABM Treaty, based on the doctrine that our very survival would best be ensured by leaving both sides completely open and vulnerable to nuclear attack. The threat was real and vivid. The Strategic Air Command had an airborne command post called the Looking Glass, aloft 24 hours a day, ready in case the president ordered our strategic forces to move toward their targets and release their nuclear ordnance.

    The Soviet Union had almost 1.5 million troops deep in the heart of Europe, in Poland, in Czechoslovakia, Hungary and East Germany.

    We used our nuclear weapons, not just to prevent the Soviet Union from using their nuclear weapons, but also to contain their conventional military forces, to prevent them from extending the Iron Curtain into parts of Europe and Asia that were still free.

    In that world, few other nations had nuclear weapons, and most of those who did were responsible allies, such as Britain and France. We worried about the proliferation of nuclear weapons to other countries, but it was mostly a distant threat, not yet a reality.

    Today, the sun comes up on a vastly different world. The Wall is gone, and so is the Soviet Union. Today’s Russia is not yesterday’s Soviet Union.

    Its government is no longer communist. Its president is elected. Today’s Russia is not our enemy, but a country in transition with an opportunity to emerge as a great nation, democratic, at peace with itself and its neighbors.

    The Iron Curtain no longer exists. Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic are free nations and they are now our allies in NATO, together with a reunited Germany. Yet, this is still a dangerous world; a less certain, a less predictable one.

    More nations have nuclear weapons and still more have nuclear aspirations. Many have chemical and biological weapons. Some already have developed a ballistic missile technology that would allow them to deliver weapons of mass destruction at long distances and incredible speeds, and a number of these countries are spreading these technologies around the world.

    Most troubling of all, the list of these countries includes some of the world’s least-responsible states. Unlike the Cold War, today’s most urgent threat stems not from thousands of ballistic missiles in the Soviet hands, but from a small number of missiles in the hands of these states — states for whom terror and blackmail are a way of life.

    They seek weapons of mass destruction to intimidate their neighbors, and to keep the United States and other responsible nations from helping allies and friends in strategic parts of the world. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, the world joined forces to turn him back. But the international community would have faced a very different situation had Hussein been able to blackmail with nuclear weapons.

    Like Saddam Hussein, some of today’s tyrants are gripped by an implacable hatred of the United States of America.

    They hate our friends. They hate our values. They hate democracy and freedom, and individual liberty. Many care little for the lives of their own people. In such a world, Cold War deterrence is no longer enough to maintain peace, to protect our own citizens and our own allies and friends.

    We must seek security based on more than the grim premise that we can destroy those who seek to destroy us. This is an important opportunity for the world to rethink the unthinkable and to find new ways to keep the peace. Today’s world requires a new policy, a broad strategy of active nonproliferation, counter-proliferation and defenses.

    We must work together with other like-minded nations to deny weapons of terror from those seeking to acquire them.

    We must work with allies and friends who wish to join with us to defend against the harm they can inflict. And together, we must deter anyone who would contemplate their use.

    We need new concepts of deterrence that rely on both offensive and defensive forces. Deterrence can no longer be based solely on the threat of nuclear retaliation. Defenses can strengthen deterrence by reducing the incentive for proliferation.

    We need a new framework that allows us to build missile defenses to counter the different threats of today’s world. To do so, we must move beyond the constraints of the 30-year-old ABM Treaty. This treaty does not recognize the present or point us to the future. It enshrines the past.

    No treaty that prevents us from addressing today’s threats, that prohibits us from pursuing promising technology to defend ourselves, our friends and our allies is in our interests or in the interests of world peace.

    This new framework must encourage still further cuts in nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons still have a vital role to play in our security and that of our allies.

    We can and will change the size, the composition, the character of our nuclear forces in a way that reflects the reality that the Cold War is over. I’m committed to achieving a credible deterrent with the lowest possible number of nuclear weapons consistent with our national security needs, including our obligations to our allies.

    My goal is to move quickly to reduce nuclear forces. The United States will lead by example to achieve our interests and the interests for peace in the world.

    Several months ago, I asked Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld to examine all available technologies and basing modes for effective missile defenses that could protect the United States, our deployed forces, our friends and our allies. The secretary has explored a number of complementary and innovative approaches.

    The secretary has identified near-term options that could allow us to deploy an initial capability against limited threats. In some cases, we can draw on already established technologies that might involve land-based and sea-based capabilities to intercept missiles in mid-course or after they re-enter the atmosphere.

    We also recognize the substantial advantages of intercepting missiles early in their flight, especially in the boost phase. The preliminary work has produced some promising options for advanced sensors and interceptors that may provide this capability. If based at sea or on aircraft, such approaches could provide limited but effective defenses.

    We have more work to do to determine the final form the defenses might take. We will explore all of these options further. We recognize the technological difficulties we face, and we look forward to I’ve made it clear from the very beginning that I would consult closely on the important subject with our friends and allies, who are also threatened by missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

    This treaty ignores the fundamental breakthroughs in technology during the last 30 years. It prohibits us from exploring all options for defending against the threats that face us, our allies and other countries.

    That’s why we should work together to replace this treaty with a new framework that reflects a clear and clean break from the past, and especially from the adversarial legacy of the Cold War.

    This new cooperative relationship should look to the future, not to the past. It should be reassuring, rather than threatening. It should be premised on openness, mutual confidence and real opportunities for cooperation, including the area of missile defense.

    It should allow us to share information so that each nation can improve its early warning capability and its capability to defend its people and territory. And perhaps one day, we can even cooperate in a joint defense.

    I want to complete the work of changing our relationship from one based on a nuclear balance of terror to one based on common responsibilities and common interests. We may have areas of difference with Russia, but we are not and must not be strategic adversaries.

    Russia and America both face new threats to security. Together, we can address today’s threats and pursue today’s opportunities. We can explore technologies that have the potential to make us all safer.

    This is a time for vision, a time for a new way of thinking, a time for bold leadership. The Looking Glass no longer stands its 24- hour-a-day vigil. We must all look at the world in a new, realistic way to preserve peace for generations to come.

    God bless. (APPLAUSE)

  • National Missile Defense Jeopardizes Foreign Relations

    Arguably the most important issue regarding US foreign policy is the decision to deploy a National Missile Defense system (NMD). There is a general bipartisan agreement to engage a system of some kind, although when and to what extent (meaning size and complexity), are issues of continuing debate.

    Depending on the Bush administration’s decision, the consequences could be dire, ranging from a mere increase in anti-American sentiment to a full-blown arms race like that of the Cold War years. Thus, the most critical factor to be considered is the extent to which this decision will affect US international relations. In particular, the US has come a long way in improving relations with Russia. To upset this progress would jeopardize years of diplomatic efforts. Additionally, China and France have voiced strong opposition to NMD deployment.

    The current administration has proposed a massive NMD with land, sea, and space-based components. The possibility of an internationally accepted US defense system of this type is unfortunately very unlikely. Furthermore, as a world superpower, the United States also has a responsibility to lead by example. But the willingness of the present administration to advocate deployment of a NMD and thereby risk violation of international obligations sends the wrong message to the rest of the world.

    Continued U.S. commitments to arms reduction is of critical importance to maintaining positive international relations. The deployment of a NMD system could significantly affect the status of two of the most important treaties signed by both the United States and Russia ? the USSR at the time the treaties were signed ? in the history of nuclear disarmament: the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) and the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The disregard for these treaties is inconsistent with our responsibilities, and will not allow us to legitimately hold other countries to their obligations.

    The sole purpose of the ABM Treaty is to limit missile defense deployment. Some argue that provisions of the 29-year-old document are outdated and, as Henry A. Kissinger claims, do not address the “new national security environment, one that was not even considered, let alone anticipated when the ABM treaty was signed.” By that same logic, one could dispute the validity of the 225-year-old United States Constitution, a concept unthinkable to those who ironically share Kissinger’s view.

    While the ABM Treaty would be altogether disregarded in the case of a comprehensive missile defense, the Non-Proliferation Treaty would be undermined by a failure of the U.S. to consider the potential results of NMD deployment. The focus of this treaty is on the reduction of nuclear weapons, but a large-scale defense system would result in other nuclear powers feeling threatened in their capabilities of deterrence, thus triggering further weapons proliferation.

    Unfortunately, adherence to the commitments outlined in the ABM and NPT treaties is apparently not of utmost concern to US policy makers. Former Secretary of Defense William Cohen has gone so far as to suggest complete withdrawal from the ABM Treaty if agreements between the US and Russia on its modification cannot be attained. This kid of attitude is not only reckless, it does not contribute to improving post-Cold War relations with our former adversaries.

    While some Third World countries have access to nuclear warheads and the ballistic missiles capable of delivering them, the threat of attack is not significant enough to risk the deterioration of our relations with the rest of the world. In addition, diplomacy has been shown to have desirable outcomes when applied to arms reduction. The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program between the US and Russia has helped Russia disable more than 4,900 nuclear warheads at cost of $3.2 billion to the US from 1992 to 2000.

    Without a doubt, the most serious current threat is that of individual rather than state-sponsored terrorist attacks. No missile defense system of any kind could protect American citizens from terrorists using delivery systems other than ballistic missiles. The recent attack on the U.S.S. Cole, and closer to home, the World Trade Center bombing are grim reminders of that possibility.

    On the international level, a policy of non-deployment of a NMD could help preserve years of improving relations with Russia achieved since the end of the Cold War. Regression to previous tensions and animosities could create much more of a threat than that which currently exists.

    Russia warned that during the Reagan years it had developed “programs to counteract asymmetrically” US missile defense systems, and should we continue to insist on deployment, Russia could “take them up again.” China has threatened to increase its arsenal at any cost to counter our defenses and urges the US to cease NMD plans. Otherwise, Chinese officials warn, “we’ll be ready.”

    By discontinuing NMD testing and development, we will avoid anti-American sentiment that could potentially spark future conflicts posing a much greater threat to US security than that which is currently perceived.

    As much as we have a responsibility to defend our nation, we also have a responsibility to stand by the promises we made under international treaties. In this age of globalization, we cannot afford the isolationist attitude that would be the result of ignoring international obligations and the concerns of those in the global community.

    In conclusion, the Bush administration should consider the impacts of the proposed National Missile Defense system and question whether it is worth the risk of jeopardizing US foreign relations and possibly the future security of our nation.

    *John Ginder is a senior at UCSB majoring in global studies with an emphasis in socioeconomics and politics. This piece appeared in the Voices section of the Santa Barbara News-Press, Sunday, April 29, 2001.