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  • El Período más Peligroso de la Historia Humana

    El Período más Peligroso de la Historia Humana
    Por David Krieger
    Traducción de Ruben Arvizu

    To read the English version, click here.

    Es aterrador pensar en Donald Trump con los códigos para lanzar el arsenal nuclear estadounidense. Irónicamente, Trump mismo puede ser el mejor argumento jamás habido de por qué el mundo debería abolir las armas nucleares. La mezcla de Trump y armas nucleares es una fórmula que puede hacer de su mandato el período más peligroso de la historia humana.

    Trump lanza tuits en cadera, como un maniático. Cuando tuitea o habla,  a menudo ocasiona aguas tormentosas . Sus ayudantes pasan gran parte de su tiempo tratando de calmar los temores que plantea en su tweetin compulsivo.

    Él ha tuiteado, “Estados Unidos debe fortalecer y expandir su capacidad nuclear hasta el momento en que el mundo recupere el sentido con respecto a las armas nucleares”.  Es improbable que él sea la persona indicada para conducir al mundo a que vuelva a sus sentidos.

    En una breve entrevista en MSNBC con la periodista Mika Brzezinski, Trump reafirmó que,  “Será una carrera armamentista … los superaremos en cada paso y los sobreviviremos a todos”.

    El mundo no necesita otra carrera armamentística nuclear, provocada por las amenazas machistas de Trump.  Imaginémoslo en el lugar de John F. Kennedy durante la crisis de los misiles cubanos en 1962. Si hubiese sido Trump sin duda habría  resultado en una guerra nuclear y el fin de la civilización humana.

    Trump es errático, impulsivo, narcisista, enormemente susceptible , y generalmente ignorante en cuestiones de política exterior y nuclear. Si el mundo va a sobrevivir a su presidencia necesita restricciones en su patológica personalidad,

    ¿Qué se puede hacer para mantener los dedos de Trump lejos del botón nuclear?

    Antes de dejar el cargo, el Presidente Obama podría ordenar que todas las armas en el arsenal nuclear estadounidense sean retiradas del estado de alerta, por lo que al menos tardarían horas o días en ser lanzadas en lugar de sólo unos minutos. Esto reduciría la posibilidad de un ataque impulsivo o accidental de armas nucleares estadounidenses, manteniendo al mismo tiempo una fuerza invulnerable de disuasión nuclear por medio de submarinos .

    Además, el Presidente Obama podría ordenar que los Estados Unidos adopten una política de “no primer uso” relacionada con su arsenal nuclear. Tal política estaría en línea con los valores que la mayoría de los estadounidenses consideran ya como una política nacional.

    Estos actos del Presidente Obama mostrarían a todos que hay otro camino a seguir que es más seguro que amenazar con ataques nucleares. Muchas personas en el  mundo saben que hay una mejor manera de avanzar por la paz y que no requiere prepararse para una represalia nuclear masiva y gastar mil millones de millones  de dólares en las próximas tres décadas para modernizar el arsenal nuclear estadounidense. Esa mejor forma de avanzar es negociar la eliminación gradual, verificable, irreversible y transparente de las armas nucleares.

    El pueblo estadounidense debe sumar sus voces a ese coro universal, exigiendo que se cumplan tales políticas, así como el recuperar el liderazgo estadounidense en el cumplimiento de las obligaciones bajo el Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear, de negociar de buena fe el fin de la carrera de armamentos nucleares y el desarme nuclear.

    El pueblo estadounidense debe dejar claro al Sr. Trump que lo apoyará en la adopción de medidas para abolir las armas nucleares y para traer la paz al planeta, pero se opondrá a los esfuerzos que él haga para fortalecer y expandir el arsenal nuclear de EE.UU y reiniciar una carrera armamentista apocalíptica.


    David Krieger es Presidente de la Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

    Ruben D. Arvizu es Director para América Latina de la Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

  • The Most Dangerous Period in Human History

    David KriegerIt is terrifying to think of Donald Trump with the codes to launch the U.S. nuclear arsenal.  Ironically, Trump himself may be the single best argument anyone could make for why the world should abolish nuclear weapons.  The mix of Trump and nuclear weapons is a formula for making his term in office the most dangerous period in human history.

    Trump tweets from the hip, like a crazy man.  When he tweets or speaks, he often muddies the waters.   His aides spend much of their time trying to calm the fears he raises in his compulsive tweeting.

    He has tweeted, “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.”  It is not likely that he will be the person to lead the world in coming to its senses.

    He sought to clarify this tweet by telling MSNBC television host Mika Brzezinski, “Let it be an arms race…we will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.”

    The world does not need another nuclear arms race, triggered by macho threats from Trump.  Imagine him in John F. Kennedy’s place during the Cuban Missile Crisis.  Such a crisis under Trump could result in a civilization-ending nuclear war.

    Trump is erratic, impulsive, narcissistic, thin-skinned, and generally ignorant on nuclear and foreign policy issues.  He needs restraints on his personality pathologies, if the world is to survive his presidency.

    What can be done to keep Trump’s fingers away from the nuclear button?

    Before leaving office, President Obama could order that all weapons in the U.S. nuclear arsenal be taken off high alert status, so that it would take hours or days to launch rather than only a few minutes.  This would decrease the possibility of an impulsive or accidental launch of U.S. nuclear weapons, while still maintaining an invulnerable submarine-launched nuclear deterrent force.

    Further, President Obama could order that the U.S. adopt a “No First Use” policy related to its nuclear arsenal.  Such a policy would be in line with U.S. values, and most Americans believe that this is already U.S. policy.

    These acts by President Obama would show people in the U.S. that there is another way forward that is safer and more secure than threatening nuclear strikes.  Many people of the world outside the U.S. already know there is a better way forward that does not require preparing for massive nuclear retaliation and spending $1 trillion over the next three decades to modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal.  That better way forward is to negotiate for the phased, verifiable, irreversible and transparent elimination of nuclear weapons.

    The American people must add their voices, calling for such policies, as well as U.S. leadership in fulfilling the obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to negotiate in good faith for an end to the nuclear arms race and for nuclear disarmament.

    The American people must make it clear to Mr. Trump that they will support him in taking steps to abolish nuclear weapons and to bring peace to the planet, but will oppose efforts on his part to strengthen and expand the U.S. nuclear arsenal and pursue a new nuclear arms race.

    Vaya aquí para la versión española.

  • January: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    January 1, 1992 – It was not only a New Year but it seemed like a new century as the almost fifty-year Cold War, which began in 1946, ended.  The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, the Velvet Revolutions against Soviet-imposed communism in Eastern Europe in 1989-90, the ending of the Warsaw Pact Soviet-Eastern European military alliance in February 1991, and finally the Christmas Day 1991 dissolution of the U.S.S.R, all seemingly meant that peace was at hand.  In 1991, global nuclear arsenals totaled around 58,300 warheads.  A quarter century later, in January of 2017, there remain roughly 15,375 nuclear warheads (Russia with 7,300 and the U.S. with 6,970, respectively, which represent 93 percent of the global arsenal) of which 4,200 are deployed with operational forces with about 1,800 warheads on a hazardous hair-trigger alert status and ready to be used on short notice, including a shocking number of doomsday weapons deployed by both NATO and Russia near the borders of the former Soviet Union.  Comments:  Surprisingly, despite all the myriad of other global problems facing humankind (climate change, the largest number of war refugees since World War II, growing international as well as domestic terrorism, overpopulation, poverty, a growing gap between rich and poor, and many other concerns), the risks of nuclear war are not significantly lower today than they were during the Cold War.  While it has been 20 years since Cornell University astrophysicist, cosmologist, and world-renowned science-popularizer Carl Sagan passed away, his warning about the nuclear threat is as relevant in 2017 as it was more than 25 years ago:  “On our small planet, at this moment, we face a critical branch point in history.  What we do with our world right now will propagate down through the centuries and powerfully affect the destiny of our descendants.  It is well within our power to destroy our civilization and perhaps our species as well.  If we capitulate to superstition, greed, or stupidity, we can plunge our world into a darkness deeper than the time between the collapse of classical civilization and the Italian Renaissance.  But we’re also capable of using our compassion, our intelligence, our technology, and our wealth to make an abundant and meaningful life for every inhabitant of this planet.” (Sources:  Hans Kristensen and Stan Norris. “Status of World Nuclear Forces.”  Federation of American Scientists, 2016 http://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/ and The Carl Sagan Portal.  http://carlsagan.com accessed Dec. 16, 2016.)

     

    January 11, 2007 – An extensive study, designated JSR-06-335, paid for by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration and conducted by the contract firm the MITRE Corporation of McLean, Virginia titled “Pit Lifetime” was released on this date.  A group of nuclear weapons experts in the JASON Program Office including Freeman Dyson and Sidney Drell as well as other employees of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) concluded that their multi-year assessment of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile showed, “no degradation in performance of primaries (plutonium pits) of stockpile systems due to plutonium aging that would be a cause for concern regarding their safety and reliability.  Most primary types have credible minimum (author’s emphasis) lifetimes in excess of 100 years…”  Comments:  In addition to the fact that dramatic reductions and the eventual elimination (sooner than later is highly recommended due to the ongoing and increasing daily risk of nuclear war) of global nuclear arsenals is supported by the vast majority of humanity, this JASON study is still relevant today as it casts extreme doubt on the current Obama and future Trump administration’s imperative to modernize and improve the reliability of the nuclear arsenal.  While many Pentagon, DOE, and civilian hawks criticized this 2007 study, most U.S. Department of Energy staffers, as well as the former director of LANL, Harold Agnew, agreed with the conclusions.  The JASON scientists also concluded that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) would not negatively impact nuclear weapons safety and reliability.  Therefore, in order to prevent wasting hundreds of billions of dollars, if not more, as well as protecting Americans and global populations from the detrimental health and environmental impacts of renewed nuclear testing, the 45th President of the United States should strongly recommend to the newly sworn-in Congress that:  (1) U.S. nuclear modernization be severely curtailed or even eliminated (except for relatively inexpensive steps to make the arsenal safer and more protected from hacking threats) and (2) that the U.S. join the majority of world nations by having the Senate ratify the CTBT in the first 100 days of his administration.  (Source:  JASON Program Office.  “Pit Lifetime.” MITRE Corporation, JSR-06-335, Jan. 11, 2007 http://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/pit.pdf accessed Dec. 17, 2016.)

     

    January 13, 1975 – A New York Times article, “Air Force Panel Recommends Discharge of Major Who Challenged Failsafe System,” published on this date, discussed an incident in 1973 when a U.S. nuclear missile launch control officer-in-training, Major Harold L. Hering, asked one of the seminal questions in the history of the human species – what the U.S. Air Force considered a forbidden question – “How can I know that an order I receive to launch my missiles came from a sane president?”  Comments:  The order, like all military orders to blindly and unquestioningly obey a superior’s command authority without any reservation whatsoever, to launch genocidal nation-destroying, nuclear winter-species threatening Armageddon-causing weapons represents the very fundamental foundation of the nuclear deterrence assumption – a supposedly ultra-rational, unerring means of preventing the U.S., Russia, China, or other nuclear powers and their allies from ever facing wholesale destruction at the hands of a foreign enemy.  The massive and extremely hazardous flaws in this system, which has almost failed too many times to count (if we include hundreds or thousands of nuclear incidents and accidents which narrowly triggered accidental or unintentional nuclear warfare), have been written about and debated extensively for over seventy years – and have been dramatized in many books and films including Fail Safe and Doctor Strangelove and other works.  It’s clearly an open secret to the vast majority of humanity that deterrence will eventually fail catastrophically resulting in unintentional megadeath on an unforeseen scale and most probably the end of human civilization if not the entire species.  Global citizenry are increasingly verbalizing opposition to this state of affairs by stating most forcefully, “We’re mad as hell and we’re not going to take it anymore.”  There is an ever growing global consensus that nuclear arms threaten everyone and that this situation must be reversed before it is too late.  (Source:  Ron Rosenbaum.  “How the End Begins:  The Road to a Nuclear World War III.”  New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011.)

     

    January 14, 2017 – Eighteen months ago on July 14, 2015, the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany (P5 + 1), and the European Union announced an agreement with Iran that is commonly referred to as the “Iran nuclear deal,” a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action  endorsed by over 70 global nonproliferation experts to lift sanctions on that nation in return for an Iranian commitment to curtail their nuclear enrichment activities and significantly eliminate the risk that the Islamic Republic would be able to build a nuclear weapon for at least ten years or more.  In September of 2015, a Republican-controlled Congress approved this international agreement.  The November 8, 2016 election of Republican Donald Trump as president put the first nail in the coffin of the Iran nuclear deal, and the second major blow to the agreement was President-elect Trump’s selection of Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-KS) as CIA Director.  Pompeo has stated that, “I look forward to rolling back this disastrous deal…”  Current CIA Director John Brennan called this potential move a mistake.  He warned Trump that scrapping the agreement with Iran would undermine U.S. foreign policy, embolden hardliners in Iran and threaten to set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and Southwest Asia.  Brennan said, “I think it would be the height of folly if the next administration were to tear up that agreement.”  Comments:  Even if the U.S. withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal, it is unlikely that the agreement will also be scuttled by all or most of the other signatories.  America will become an international pariah again, ironically along with hardline Iranian advocates of an accelerated nuclear program.  Nonproliferation will also suffer a significant setback and the risk of a regional nuclear conflict involving Iran, Israel, or possibly India and Pakistan will increase substantially.  Trump-supported Israeli air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities could spur a wider regional war and increase the risk of not just more terrorism but of nuclear terrorism with the U.S. and Israel as the most likely targets.  (Sources:  U.S. Department of State.  “Nuclear Agreement With Iran.” July 14, 2015 http://www.state.gov/p/nea/p5/ and Dan Bilefsky.  “CIA Chief Warns Donald Trump Against Tearing Up Iran Nuclear Deal.”  New York Times. Nov. 30, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/world/americas/cia-trump-Iran-nuclear-deal.html?smid=fb-n… both accessed December 19, 2016.)

     

    January 21, 1968 – A fire that broke out in the navigator’s compartment of a U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber, carrying four Mark-28 nuclear bombs each with a yield of 1.1 megatons, caused the crew to quickly eject before the aircraft crashed at a speed of 600 miles-per-hour impacting seven miles southwest of Thule Air Base onto the ice of North Star Bay in Greenland, a Danish possession.  High explosives jacketing the nuclear warheads and their plutonium pits detonated on impact igniting an estimated 225,000 pounds of jet fuel which triggered a catastrophic fire that burned over an area of three square miles.  Extreme weather conditions made comprehensive recovery and decontamination of the crash zone impossible.  Nevertheless, an extremely large volume of contaminated ice and debris (that eventually filled 147 freight train cars and represented an estimated 237,000 cubic feet of material) was flown back to the Atomic Energy Commission facility in Aiken, South Carolina and buried while bomb fragments were recycled at the Pantex facility in Amarillo, Texas.  This incident spurred massive protests in Denmark as the Danish government had forbidden U.S. deployment of nuclear weapons on its territory.  Comments:  Many of the hundreds if not thousands of nuclear accidents, involving all nine nuclear weapons states, still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny which potentially threatens the health and well-being of large numbers of people.  These near-nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating an estimated 15,375 warheads in existing global nuclear arsenals.  (Sources:  The Center for Defense Information.  “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Accidents:  Dangers In Our Midst.”  The Defense Monitor, Vol. 10, No. 5, 1981. http://www.nukestrat.com/us/CDI_BrokenArrowMonitor1981.pdf accessed Dec. 17, 2016 and Eric Schlosser.  “Command and Control:  Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Incident, and the Illusion of Safety.”  New York:  Penguin Press, 2013.)

     

    January 24, 1946 – The very first resolution of the newly created United Nations General Assembly, passed on this date, called for the elimination of atomic weapons. Over the ensuring seven decades, hundreds of other U.N. resolutions have addressed the global threat of nuclear weapons and nuclear power.  Last October at the U.N. General Assembly First Committee for Disarmament, 123 nations, including amazingly North Korea, voted to support negotiations in 2017 to prohibit and ban nuclear weapons just as the vast majority of world nations in the past made biological and chemical weapons’ production and use illegal.  Unfortunately in this vote, the United States joined Israel, Russia, the U.K., France, the NATO countries (with the exception of The Netherlands which abstained due to grassroots public lobbying), Australia, South Korea, and Japan in a bloc of 38 opposing nations.  Surprisingly, China joined non-NPT nuclear weapons states Pakistan and India in a group of 16 abstaining nations.   All nine nuclear weapon states, unfortunately, did vote as a bloc to boycott a special U.N. Open Ended Working Group for Nuclear Disarmament held in the summer of 2016.  Comments:  The vast majority of global populations (including many that live in the nine nuclear weapons states) and nation-states have recognized the urgent imperative of eliminating nuclear weapons or at least reducing global nuclear stockpiles below the nuclear winter threshold with the utmost timeliness and speed.  Every day we delay this essential prerequisite to continued human survival, we risk the unthinkable – the first use of nuclear weapons in combat since 1945, the first-ever use of genocidal thermonuclear weapons against human populations, and the triggering of an unprecedented global catastrophe – nuclear war.  It is an extremely slippery slope to argue that a “small” bunker-busting nuclear weapon used against underground Iranian or North Korean nuclear facilities will not be the tripwire that opens the door to the use of other types and sizes of nuclear weapons by other nation-states or actors.  Once Pandora’s Box is opened, it may be too late to save our global civilization and the human species.  Former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon presented a forceful argument against the nuclear deterrence “blinders” employed by nuclear weapons states and their allies in a 2013 speech in Monterey, California, “I urge all nuclear-armed states to reconsider their national nuclear posture.  Nuclear deterrence is not a solution to international peace and stability.  It is an obstacle.  The longer we procrastinate, the greater the risk that these weapons will be used, will proliferate, or be acquired by terrorists.  But our aim must be more than keeping these weapons from “falling into the wrong hands.”  There are no right hands for nuclear weapons.”  (Source:  United Nations General Assembly.  Resolution UNGA 1, 24 January 1946 and Alice Slater.  “Seeking Nuclear Disarmament in Dangerous Times.”  In Depth News. Nov. 28, 2016.)

  • The End of Everything

    A newsletter with this blaring headline
    has been on my desk for weeks, maybe months.
    I’m fascinated by its finality.

    Noam Chomsky delivers the same message
    over the radio in his calm voice of reason.  Are we
    reaching the end of all possibilities?

    No longer chaos, but an end to chaos.
    No longer love, but an end to love.
    No longer poems, but an end to poems.

    Everything is so shatteringly final.
    No longer hope or doubt or resistance.

    We must not cross that cruel line – not now,
    not ever.

     

  • Vote for the Marshall Islands for Arms Control Person of the Year

    The Arms Control Association, a prominent Washington, DC-based group promoting arms control policies, has announced the finalists for its annual Arms Control Person of the Year award.

    One of the finalists is the government of the Marshall Islands and its former Foreign Minister Tony de Brum, “for pursuing a formal legal case in the International Court of Justice in The Hague against the world’s nuclear-armed states for their failure to initiate nuclear disarmament negotiations in violation of Article VI of the 1968 nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and customary international law.”

    We appreciate the good work done in 2016 by all the nominees. However, we believe that the courage and foresight demonstrated by the Marshall Islands in filing these cases is unparalleled. And let’s not forget that the Marshall Islands’ case against the United States is still active. Receiving this award would help bring added attention to this ongoing effort in U.S. Federal Court. The Marshall Islands’ sustained effort to bring these issues to the highest judicial forums deserves strong recognition.

    I encourage you to submit your vote for the Marshall Islands in this year’s contest, and to ask your friends, family, and colleagues. Voting is open now through January 5, 2017, at this link: https://www.armscontrol.org/acpoy.

    Take Action

    We also have some social media content ready for you to share about this vote. Please re-tweet this tweet from @napf, and share this image on Facebook. Your support is much appreciated!

    acpoy16

  • Carta Abierta para el Presidente-electo Donald Trump

    Como presidente de los Estados Unidos, usted tendrá la grave responsabilidad de asegurar que las armas nucleares no sirvan como amenaza o sean utilizadas durante su mandato.

    La mejor manera de cumplir con esta responsabilidad es negociar con los demás poseedores de armas nucleares para su eliminación total. Los Estados Unidos están obligados, de conformidad con el artículo VI del Tratado Sobre la No Proliferación de las Armas Nucleares, a entablar negociaciones de buena fe para poner fin a la carrera de armamentos nucleares y su desarme.

    Una guerra nuclear, cualquier guerra nuclear, sería un acto de locura, lo que probablemente conduciría a la destrucción de la nación atacante, así como la nación atacada

    Todavía hay más de 15.000 armas nucleares en el mundo, de las cuales Estados Unidos posee más de 7.000. Un millar de ellas permanecen en estado de lanzamiento inmediato. Un número similar están listas para ser disparadas en cualquier momento en Rusia. Esta es una catástrofe esperando a suceder.

    Incluso si las armas nucleares no se utilizan intencionalmente, podrían ser lanzadas inadvertidamente por accidente o error de cálculo. Las armas nucleares y la falibilidad humana son una mezcla muy peligrosa.

    La disuasión nuclear presupone una visión especial de la conducta humana. Depende de la voluntad de los líderes políticos para actuar racionalmente en todas las circunstancias, incluso las de estrés extremo. No ofrece garantías ni protección física. Podría fallar espectacular y trágicamente

    Usted ha sugerido que más naciones –como Japón, Corea del Sur e incluso Arabia Saudita – necesitarán desarrollar sus propios arsenales nucleares porque Estados Unidos gasta demasiado dinero protegiendo a otros países. Esta proliferación nuclear haría al mundo mucho más peligroso. También es preocupante que usted haya hablado de revocar o reinterpretar el acuerdo internacional que impone las limitaciones apropiadas al programa nuclear de Irán y cuenta con el apoyo de los cinco miembros permanentes del consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas, además de Alemania.

    Como lo ha sido con otros presidentes, usted tendrá a su disposición el poder de acabar con la civilización, la especie humana y la mayoría de las otras formas de vida compleja También tendrá la oportunidad, si así lo decide, de liderar la eliminación de la era de las armas nucleares y el logro del cero nuclear mediante negociaciones sobre un tratado para la eliminación gradual, verificable, irreversible y transparente de las armas nucleares.

    Nosotros, los abajo firmantes, le urgimos a elegir el curso de las negociaciones para lograr un mundo libre de armas nucleares. Sería un gran regalo para toda la humanidad y para todas las generaciones futuras.

     

  • The Alarm Is Sounding

    The alarm is sounding.
    The nuclear codes
    will soon be within reach
    of his small hands.

    This is no joke.
    The nuclear codes
    will soon be available
    to his small mind.

    This is deadly serious.
    Control of the nuclear codes
    demands what he lacks —
    a gracious heart.

    The alarm is sounding.
    This is no joke.
    This is deadly serious.

  • Sunflower Newsletter: December 2016

    Issue #233 – December 2016

    Donate Now!

     

     

    For every gift of $35 or more we will send you, or someone of your choice, the book “Hope in a Dark Time” signed by NAPF President David Krieger. Please use the Tribute section on the donation form to identify who should get the book. Thank you!

    Perspectives

    Donald Trump, the Bomb, and the Human Future

    Donald Trump and the Bomb are nearly the same age. Which of them will prove to be more destructive remains to be seen, but in combination they are terrifying.

    Trump was born on June 14, 1946, less than a year after the first and, thus far, only nuclear weapons were used in war.  Given Trump’s surprising recent election as president of the United States, his fate and that of the Bomb are about to become seriously and dangerously intertwined with the fate of all humanity.

    On January 20, 2017, Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States, and he will be given the nuclear codes and the power to launch the U.S. nuclear arsenal, which is comprised of some 7,000 nuclear weapons. A military officer will always be close to Trump, carrying the nuclear codes in a briefcase known as the “football.” What does this portend for civilization and the future of humanity?

    To read more, click here.

    Seeking Nuclear Disarmament in Dangerous Times

    UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has championed efforts for nations to make good on their pledges to abolish nuclear weapons. In 2009 he published a five-point proposal for nuclear disarmament, urging nuclear weapons states in particular to fulfill their promises under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to negotiate for the total elimination of nuclear weapons as well as other complementary steps to that end such as banning missiles and space weapons.

    At the end of his term this year, there have been some stunning new developments after years of global gridlock and blocked efforts. At the UN General Assembly First Committee for Disarmament, 123 nations voted this October to support negotiations in 2017 to prohibit and ban nuclear weapons, just as the world has already done for biological and chemical weapons.

    To read more, click here.

    Giving Thanks to Our Latin American Neighbors Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons

    Americans gathered around their Thanksgiving tables last week reflecting on what they were thankful for this past year. There was the potential for much angst after a year with significant division in our nation, often emphasizing differences and talk of building walls to separate us from our neighbors. In contrast, at our table, we gave thanks for our Latin American and Caribbean neighbors, celebrating their courage and the Treaty of Tlatelolco, a little-known treaty that was drafted 50 years ago this February creating the world’s first nuclear weapons free zone (NWFZ) and which ultimately served as the model for all subsequent NWFZ to follow.

    In the border town of Tijuana, at its historic coastal Friendship Park adjacent the Mexican side of the wall, a monument commemorating the northwestern point of this NWFZ was unveiled this past week with great fanfare, though remarkably no coverage from the neighbor to the north, the United States.

    To read more, click here.

    U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

    CIA Chief Warns President-elect Trump Against Tearing Up Iran Deal

    CIA director John Brennan has warned the incoming Trump administration that scrapping the nuclear deal with Iran would undermine American foreign policy, embolden hard-liners in Iran and threaten to set off an arms race in the Middle East by encouraging other countries to develop nuclear weapons. Brennan said, “I think it would be the height of folly if the next administration were to tear up that agreement.”

    Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-KS), who Donald Trump has selected to take over as head of the CIA, said, “I look forward to rolling back this disastrous deal with the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism.”

    Dan Bilefsky, “C.I.A. Chief Warns Donald Trump Against Tearing Up Iran Nuclear Deal,” The New York Times, November 30, 2016.

    Former Nuclear Weapon Workers Worry About Health Compensation

    Over 900,000 people have been employed by the United States over the past seven-plus decades to develop nuclear weapons. The jobs often exposed employees to radiation and toxic chemicals, frequently without their knowledge. Recently, two federal programs meant to help some of these workers — the U.S. Department of Labor’s Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Act and the Department of Justice’s Radiation Exposure Compensation Act — have experienced a surge in demand.

    Since 2000, over 113,000 people have filed claims under the Department of Labor’s program, at a cost to the government of $13 billion. There also are questions about how the health of the future generation of nuclear workers will be protected. Work is now underway at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to restart an assembly line for plutonium pit production in increasing quantities over the coming decades. With numerous other nuclear modernization programs proposed, tens of thousands of new people could be at risk.

    Rebecca Moss, “Cold War Patriots Gather in Los Alamos,” Santa Fe New Mexican, October 31, 2016.

    Nuclear Insanity

    Diver May Have Found Long-Lost Nuclear Bomb

    A Canadian diver may have found a long-lost nuclear bomb off the coast of British Columbia. In October, Sean Smyrichinsky went diving to search for sea cucumbers. He spotted a strange object on the ocean floor. He later heard from a local fisherman about the 1950 crash of a U.S. Air Force B-36 bomber, which jettisoned its Mark IV nuclear bomb prior to crashing. The bomb was never found.

    The Canadian Royal Navy is now working with Smyrichinsky to try to locate the mysterious object.

    Amy B. Wang, “A Diver was Looking for Sea Cucumbers. He May Have Found a Long-Lost Nuclear Bomb Instead,” Washington Post, November 8, 2016.

    Nuclear Energy and Waste

    Cost of Fukushima Expected to Skyrocket

    The cost of the Fukushima nuclear disaster is now expected to reach 20 trillion yen, or $176 billion. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which previously put the overall cost at ¥11 trillion, is considering passing on a portion of the costs, including for compensation and the decommissioning of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant, to consumers via higher electricity prices.

    In addition to costs for compensation and decommissioning, the current estimate also includes dealing with seemingly endless streams of radioactive water produced as groundwater flows through the contaminated area on its way to the Pacific Ocean. This huge sum of money does not include costs for interim waste storage facilities, however, meaning the total cost of this nuclear disaster will be even higher.

    Cost of Fukushima Disaster Expected to Soar to ¥20 Trillion,” Kyodo News, November 28, 2016.

    Inside the American Nuclear Waste Crisis

    Nearly 100 nuclear reactors continue to operate in the United States, even as there is no viable plan in sight for safe, permanent storage of nuclear waste, which will remain highly radioactive for millennia. At Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station in Massachusetts, the plant will still host more than 800 tons of irradiated spent fuel, even after the plant ceases producing electricity in 2019.

    The United States government spent billions of dollars trying to prepare a waste dump at Yucca Mountain in Nevada, but the plan proved extremely expensive, scientifically unsound and politically unworkable. The U.S. Department of Energy is now examining other possibilities, including what they call a “consent-based siting initiative.” This unethical plan would offer financial incentives to economically disadvantaged communities to serve as storage places for highly radioactive waste from around the country. In addition to the fact that this plan would take advantage of vulnerable people, transporting nuclear waste by rail and truck around the nation would pose a great danger to millions of people living along the transportation routes.

    Gregg Levine and Caroline Preston, “Pilgrim’s Progress: Inside the American Nuclear-Waste Crisis,” The New Yorker, November 25, 2016.

    Powerful Earthquake Near Fukushima Raised New Tsunami Fears

    A powerful earthquake struck off the coast of northeastern Japan on November 21, raising new fears among area residents about another tsunami, less than six years after the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that killed 18,000 people and caused a triple meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Estimates of the magnitude of the latest earthquake ranged from 6.9 to 7.4, and the Japanese government quickly issued a tsunami warning for the area.

    For many people in the region, this latest earthquake brought back terrible memories. “I remembered 3/11,” Kazuhiro Onuki said by phone, referring to the March 11 date of the 2011 disaster. “It really came back. And it was so awful. The sways to the side were huge.”

    Ken Moritsugu, “Offshore Quake Causes Tsunamis, Nuclear Worries in Japan,” Associated Press, November 21, 2016.

    Nuclear Modernization

    Trump Likely to Continue Obama’s Plans for Massive Nuclear Modernization

    Although policy details from the incoming Trump administration are extremely vague, President-elect Donald Trump is thought to be likely to continue President Obama’s program to “modernize” all aspects of the U.S. nuclear arsenal at a cost of at least $1 trillion over the next 30 years.

    The Trump transition website, greatagain.gov, refers briefly to nuclear weapons modernization. The site says that President-elect Trump “will ensure our strategic nuclear triad is modernized to ensure it continues to be an effective deterrent.”

    Rachel Karas, “Trump Appears Likely to Continue Obama’s Path on Nuclear Modernization,” Inside Defense, November 11, 2016.

     Resources

    This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    History chronicles many instances when humans have been threatened by nuclear weapons. In this article, Jeffrey Mason outlines some of the most serious threats that have taken place in the month of December, including the December 10, 1967 detonation of a 20-kiloton nuclear device near Farmington, New Mexico, designed to release natural gas trapped in dense shale deposits.

    To read Mason’s full article, click here.

    For more information on the history of the Nuclear Age, visit NAPF’s Nuclear Files website.

    Ten Big Nuclear Ideas for the Next President

    The Ploughshares Fund has published a new series of essays entitled “10 Big Nuclear Ideas for the Next President.” Authors include Senator Dianne Feinstein, former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry, Senator Ed Markey, Rep. Adam Smith, former CIA operative Valerie Plame, and the former commander of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, retired Gen. James Cartwright.

    To learn more about the report, including a video of the launch event and a link to download the full report, click here.

    World Medical Journal on the Growing Threat of Nuclear War

    The World Medical Journal, a publication of the World Medical Association, has published an article entitled “The Growing Threat of Nuclear War and the Role of the Health Community.” The article, co-written by Ira Helfand, Andy Haines, Tilman Ruff, Hans Kristensen, Patricia Lewis, and Zia Mian, outlines the growing risks of nuclear war and the nuclear modernization programs of all nine nuclear-armed nations.

    The authors conclude, “The health professions therefore have a central role in advocating for the abolition of nuclear weapons, reflecting their ethical responsibility to protect health and prevent illness.”

    To read the full article, click here.

    Panel Discussion on Non-Profit Management

    The Herbert Kurz Business Consortium will present a panel discussion on non-profit management on December 16, 2016. The event is free and open to the public. It will feature panelists from SHARE Africa, the Center for Safety & Change, and the RCC Foundation.

    For more information, click here.

    Foundation Activities

    16th Annual Kelly Lecture Features Oliver Stone and Peter Kuznick

    The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation’s 16th Annual Frank K. Kelly Lecture on Humanity’s Future will feature legendary Hollywood director Oliver Stone and Professor Peter Kuznick, co-authors of the internationally-acclaimed documentary The Untold History of the United States.

    The lecture, entitled “Untold History, Uncertain Future,” will take place on February 23, 2017 at 7:00 p.m. at the Lobero Theatre in Santa Barbara. Tickets start at $10 and are available here.

    For more information about the Kelly Lecture series, click here.

    Symposium: The Fierce Urgency of Nuclear Zero

    On October 24-25, the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation hosted a symposium with leading nuclear disarmament academics and activists. The symposium, entitled “The Fierce Urgency of Nuclear Zero: Changing the Discourse,” was an intimate brainstorming session designed to elicit new and innovative thinking on how to arrive at nuclear zero.

    The symposium featured Noam Chomsky, Elaine Scarry, Richard Falk, Hans Kristensen, Daniel Ellsberg, and many more.

    Click here to view selected items from the symposium, including video, audio, photos and transcripts.

    Peace Literacy, Post-Election

    Three days after the 2016 presidential election, NAPF Peace Leadership Director Paul K. Chappell visited Naropa University in Colorado to give a Veteran’s Day seminar. In conversations with students, he generated a list of human needs, including the need for purpose, meaning, trust, transcendence, and a sense of belonging. Framing his own narrative in the context of “the need for peace literacy,” Chappell shared his experience growing up in Alabama, the son of a Korean mother and a half-white, half-black father who fought in the Korean and Vietnam wars.

    To read more about Paul’s trip to Colorado, click here for a blog post by Candace Walworth, Ph.D., Peace Studies program lead at Naropa.

    Quotes

     

    “Nothing could be worse than fear that one has given up too soon and left one effort unexpended which might have saved the world.”

    Jane Addams, American peace activist and 1931 Nobel Peace Laureate. This quote appears in the book Speaking of Peace: Quotations to Inspire Action, which is available for purchase in the NAPF Peace Store.

     

    “Your presidency is an unprecedented opportunity for positive change in the world. Reducing the threat of nuclear war and nuclear winter will make the United States safer and richer, and cement your status as a world leader. Please take advantage of this chance to be a real winner.”

    Alan Robock, of the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University. Dr. Robock is a primary author of contemporary studies on the climatic effects of nuclear weapons use. To read his full article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, click here.

     

    “If we are to have a nuclear war, we can’t win it. Can we survive it? I don’t know. Nobody knows. That’s the tragedy of it – nobody knows. Anybody that tells you that this many people are going to be killed and this many are going to survive doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”

    Admiral Gene La Rocque, who passed away in October 2016 at the age of 98. To read NAPF President David Krieger’s remembrance of Admiral La Rocque, click here.

    Editorial Team

     

    David Krieger
    Carol Warner
    Rick Wayman

     

  • December: This Month in Nuclear Threat History

    December 2, 1942 – A group of Allied physicists led by Enrico Fermi achieved the first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction in a makeshift laboratory constructed on a squash court under the west stands at the University of Chicago Stadium.  Thirty-one months later, the top secret U.S.-funded and directed Manhattan Project successfully tested a 15-20 kiloton nuclear device, code-named Trinity, on July 16, 1945 near Alamogordo, New Mexico.  Despite protests from some scientists, military leaders, and government officials, the first use of nuclear weapons in combat occurred when U.S. B-29 bombers dropped a 15 kiloton uranium-fueled nuclear bomb on Hiroshima on August 6 and a plutonium-fueled 21 kiloton bomb on Nagasaki killing and injuring hundreds of thousands of predominantly civilian victims.  Comments:  Thus began the nuclear arms race which still continues today to threaten humanity with extinction.  The man who originally convinced President Franklin Roosevelt in a 1939 letter to deter a possible Nazi German A-bomb with one of our own, may have said it best, “Humanity is going to require a substantially new way of thinking if it is to survive.”  (Source:  Randy Alfred. “Dec. 2, 1942:  Nuclear Pile Gets Going.”  Wired.com. Dec. 2, 2010.  https://www.wired.com/2010/12/1202nuclear-milestones/ accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 8-9, 2014 – As a result of concerns by a group of nation-states attending the 2010 NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) Review Conference of “the catastrophic humanitarian consequences that would result from the use of nuclear weapons,” the last of three conferences (the first was in Oslo, Norway on March 4-5, 2013 and the second was in Nayarit, Mexico on Feb. 13-14, 2014) on the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons was held on these dates in Vienna, Austria.  The Vienna Conference, as well as the other two meetings, produced a wealth of fact-based materials about the horrendous short- and long-term globally detrimental impact of even so-called “limited” nuclear war on individuals, societies, and the global common.  The meeting also generated valuable legal analyses, building on seven decades of international humanitarian legal protections, that characterize the use of nuclear weapons as illegal and utterly unjustifiable.  One of the most valuable concrete results of the Vienna Conference was the crafting of The Humanitarian Pledge for the prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons which was adopted as U.N. General Assembly Resolution 70/48 on December 7, 2015 with 139 nations approving, 29 opposing, and 17 abstaining.  Comments:  Before leaving office, President Barack Obama should take a cue from President Kennedy’s creation of the ExComm (Executive Committee) to deal with the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 and create an Executive Committee to Address the Environmental Crises of Global Climate Change and the Growing Threat of Nuclear Weapons to meet once or twice a week to brief the President on policies and actions to mitigate and work towards a resolution of these catastrophic trends.  The President should staff this committee with not only his Chief of Staff and main political advisors but more importantly with several scientific experts such as astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson, environmentalists such as Bill McKibben, and prominent bipartisan/nonpartisan retired political statesmen and women like President Jimmy Carter, and former Secretary of State George P. Schultz.  The committee’s charter will mandate the Committee’s continuance after President Obama steps down on January 20, 2017 as a permanent nonprofit organization (which would also mandate absolutely no corporate funding or donations)  meeting in public settings once or twice a month at revolving sites such as the Carter Center in Atlanta and at locations outside the United States as well.  Each meeting will also include a number of local experts and community activists.  The nuclear threat and climate change are the main issues facing humanity in the 21st century and much more time, money, brain power, and focus needs to be harnessed to address these global crises.  (Sources:  Patricia Lewis, Beyza Unal, and Sasan Aghlani.  “Nuclear Disarmament:  The Missing Link in Multilaterialism.” The Royal Institute of Chatham House, International Security Department, October 2016 and “The Vienna Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons.”  8-9 December 2014.  https://ww.bmeia.gv.at/en/european-foreign-policy/disarmament/weapons-of-mass-destruction/nuclear-weapons-and-nuclear-terrorism/vienna-conference-on-the-humanitarian-impact-of-nuclear-weapons/ accessed on Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 10, 1967 – As part of the Operation Plowshare program created by the Atomic Energy Commission (now known as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) to explore “peaceful” uses of nuclear weapons as initiated by President Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace December 8, 1953 plan, a 29 kiloton nuclear device code-named Gasbuggy was detonated 60 miles from Farmington, New Mexico on this date.  The purpose of the blast was to learn whether a small underground nuclear explosion would stimulate the release of natural gas trapped in dense shale deposits.  Initially the test was considered a success until it was discovered that the immense volume of gas produced was highly radioactive and therefore unusable.  Unfortunately, the contaminated gas was vented and flared which released radioactive krypton-85 into the atmosphere.  In addition, groundwater was contaminated with other radioactive elements such as strontium-90.  Comments:  Thankfully this was one of the last Atoms for Peace test explosions, however nuclear testing has continued for decades and the U.S. has signed but not ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.  This appears unlikely during the Donald Trump presidency with a Republican-controlled Congress.  The testing of over 2,000 nuclear devices over the last seven decades has inflicted extremely harmful short- and long-term health impacts to global populations especially native peoples.  Increased cancer rates, groundwater contamination, destruction of land and ocean ecosystems, and other detrimental health and environmental impacts still plague large numbers of people to this day due to nuclear testing.  (Source:  Colonel Derek L. Duke as told to Fred Dungan.  “Chasing Loose Nukes.”  Dungan Books, 2007, pp. 10-11.  http://www.fdungan.com/duke.htm accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 12, 1952 – The NRX nuclear research reactor at Chalk Point Laboratories in Ontario, Canada suffered a partial meltdown after a power surge caused some fuel rods to rupture and melt which resulted in a flood of millions of liters of radioactive water spilling into the reactor building’s basement.  A young U.S. naval officer serving in the nuclear submarine service, James (Jimmy) Earl Carter, the future 39th President of the United States, was charged with directing a unit of nearly two dozen sailors to stabilize the reactor and begin cleaning up the highly radioactive contamination.  Carter and each member of his team limited themselves to only a few seconds of exposure during their forays into the reactor building.  Nevertheless, the President noted in a 2008 interview that, “They let us get probably a thousand times more radiation than they would now.  We were fairly well instructed then on what nuclear power was but for about six months after that I had radioactivity in my urine.”  Decades later in August of 2015, doctors removed a cancerous mass from the President’s liver.  He was also diagnosed with a form of melanoma that was discovered on parts of his brain which required him to undergo radiation treatments and immune-based therapy.  During his presidency, Jimmy Carter had to deal with the March 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear accident.  President Carter recognized the importance of addressing the nuclear threat as he promised to work toward the elimination of nuclear weapons during his inaugural address and his administration worked with the Soviets to negotiate and sign the SALT II Treaty.  In his December 10, 2002 Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech, President Carter said, “…we will not learn how to live together in peace by killing each other’s children.  The bond of our common humanity is stronger than the divisiveness of our fears and prejudices.  God gives us the capacity for choice.  We can choose to alleviate suffering.  We can choose to work together in peace.  We can make these changes and we must.”  Comments:  In addition to the dangerous risk of nuclear reactor accidents like Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, the tremendously out-of-control civilian and military nuclear waste sequestration, remediation, and permanent storage conundrum, as well as the terrorist targeting potential, the economic unsustainability of civilian nuclear power, and the potential for nuclear proliferation points logically to an accelerated phase-out of global civilian nuclear power plants over the next decade.  President Barack Obama should publicly announce this initiative and begin to launch this phase-out before he leaves office.  (Sources:  Arthur Milnes.  “Jimmy Carter’s Exposure to Nuclear Danger.” CNN.com, April 5, 2011.  http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/04/05/milnes.carter.nuclear/ and Clyde Hughes.  “Jimmy Carter:  Didn’t Say Cancer is Cured, Treatment Continues.”  The Wire. Jan. 26, 2016.  http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/jimmy-carter-cancer-treatment/2016/01/26/id/710859/ both accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 20, 1993 – The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) issued Directive 5230.16 “Nuclear Accident and Incident Public Affairs Guidance” that mandated a Pentagon policy of neither confirming nor denying the presence or absence of nuclear weapons on U.S. naval vessels which reinforced the fact that two years after the Cold War ended, military secrecy, particularly regarding nuclear weapons, was as tight-lipped as ever, if not becoming even more restrictive.  Journalists and nuclear experts had been clamoring for years for more information on all manner of U.S. and allied nuclear weapons incidents, but despite the passage of decades of time and the demise of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact Soviet military alliance, the Pentagon was not forthcoming.  DoD Public Affairs officers continued to point to a minimalist list of 32 nuclear accidents and incidents that was released in 1980.  Nevertheless Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests, which can take as long as several years for the Pentagon to respond to (and sometimes the response is negative, due to existing or upgraded secrecy classification protocols), have seen just one branch of the armed services – the U.S. Navy – release details of 381 nuclear weapons incidents that occurred between 1965 and 1977.  Comments:  Many of the hundreds if not thousands of nuclear accidents, involving all nine nuclear weapons states, still remain partially or completely classified and hidden from public scrutiny.  These near-nuclear catastrophes provide an additional justification for reducing dramatically and eventually eliminating an estimated 15,500 warheads in existing global nuclear arsenals.  (Source:  http://www.abovetopsecret.com accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

     

    December 22, 1983The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, a publication founded in 1945 by Manhattan Project scientists who “could not remain aloof to the consequences of their work,” moved the hands of the Doomsday Clock, which has tracked humanity’s proximity to Nuclear Armageddon since 1947, from four minutes to three minutes to Midnight.  The moving of the clock’s hands was necessitated by ever growing tensions in U.S.-Soviet relations spurred by actions by both superpowers.  Examples included President Ronald Reagan’s announcement on March 23, 1983 of the “Star Wars” (SDI – Strategic Defense Initiative) system, a greatly accelerated land- and space-based effort to intercept the overwhelming majority of Soviet ICBMs before they impacted U.S. targets.  This plan threatened the relatively stable nuclear deterrence system and convinced the Soviet leadership that the U.S. actually intended a huge defensive buildup to allow them to escape relatively unscathed after a Soviet counterstrike to a suspected American first strike attack plan.  The Soviets later heightened tensions by shooting down Korean Airlines Flight 007 near Sakhalin Island on September 1, 1983.  Comments:  With the election of Donald Trump, the first president without any government or military experience, as the 45th Commander-in-Chief, it seems extremely possible that the Doomsday Clock may be advanced to its historic high of two minutes until Midnight as experienced from 1953-60.  During the past year of campaigning, President-elect Trump has expressed a profound and frightening ignorance on the nuclear threat best exemplified by his shocking query, “Why can’t we use nuclear weapons?” Even the fact that 50 leading Republican national security experts warned in an open letter published this past September that Trump possesses “dangerous qualities in an individual with command of the U.S. nuclear arsenal,” did not dissuade the American electorate from selecting Donald Trump as president.  One can only hope that President Trump will follow the pattern of Cold War hawk President Ronald Reagan who for decades talked of destroying Soviet communism but eventually proclaimed publicly that “a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought,” and talked openly with Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev of eliminating nuclear weapons entirely.  (Sources:  The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists website.  http://thebulletin.org/background-and-mission-1945-2016 and Ira Helfand and Robert Dodge.  “Op-Ed:  Should We Let An Unstable Person Have Control of the Nuclear Arsenal? No, But That’s Not The Right Question.”  Los Angeles Times. Sept. 23, 2016.  http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-helfand-dodge-nuclear-weapon-question-2016-september-23 both accessed Nov. 10, 2016.)

  • Seeking Nuclear Disarmament in Dangerous Times

    This article was originally published by In Depth News.

    UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has championed efforts for nations to make good on their pledges to abolish nuclear weapons. In 2009 he published a five-point proposal for nuclear disarmament, urging nuclear weapons states in particular to fulfill their promises under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to negotiate for the total elimination of nuclear weapons as well as other complementary steps to that end such as banning missiles and space weapons.

    At the end of his term this year, there have been some stunning new developments after years of global gridlock and blocked efforts. At the UN General Assembly First Committee for Disarmament, 123 nations voted this October to support negotiations in 2017 to prohibit and ban nuclear weapons, just as the world has already done for biological and chemical weapons.

    The most remarkable upset in the vote was a breach in what had always been a solid single-minded phalanx of 5 nuclear weapons states recognized in the NPT, signed 46 years ago in 1970 – the US, Russia, UK, France, and China. For the first time, China broke ranks by voting with a group of 16 nations to abstain, along with India and Pakistan, non-NPT nuclear weapons states. And to the great surprise of all, North Korea actually voted YES in support of negotiations going forward to outlaw nuclear weapons.

    The ninth nuclear weapons state, Israel, voted against the resolution with 38 other countries including those in nuclear alliances with the United States such as the NATO states as well as Australia, South Korea, and, most surprisingly, Japan, the only country ever attacked with nuclear bombs. Only the Netherlands broke ranks with NATO’s unified opposition to ban treaty talks, as the sole NATO member to abstain on the vote, after grassroots pressure on its Parliament.

    All nine nuclear-weapon states had boycotted a special UN Open Ended Working Group for Nuclear Disarmament last summer, which followed three conferences in Norway, Mexico, and Austria with civil-society and governments to examine the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of nuclear war, thus opening a new pathway for how we think and speak about the bomb.

    This new “humanitarian initiative” has shifted the conversation from the military’s traditional examination and explanations of deterrence, policy, and strategic security to an understanding of the overwhelming deaths and devastation people would suffer from the use of nuclear weapons.

    Today there are still almost 16,000 nuclear weapons on the planet, with nearly 15,000 of them in the United States and Russia, now in an increasingly hostile relationship, with NATO troops patrolling on Russia’s borders, and the Russian Emergencies Ministry actually launching a sweeping nationwide civil-defense drill involving 40 million people. The US, under President Obama, has proposed a $1 trillion program for new nuclear-bomb factories, warheads, and delivery systems, and Russia and other nuclear-weapon states are engaged in modernizing their nuclear arsenals as well.

    Perhaps one additional way to break the log jam for nuclear disarmament and find a silver lining in the crumbling neo-liberal agenda for globalization evidenced by the Brexit event and the shocking and unanticipated election of Donald Trump in the US, is to encourage Trump’s repeated statements that the US should make “a deal” with Putin and join with Russia to fight terrorists.

    Trump has criticized the NATO alliance, the expansion of which has been very provocative to Russia and was the reason Russia gave, together with the US walking out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and installing a new missile base in Romania, for putting a halt to further US-Russian agreements for nuclear disarmament.

    Trump, who promotes himself as a “deal maker” has also suggested that he would have no difficulty in sitting down and talking with North Korea. These efforts should be encouraged, as North Korea has actually shown it is willing to enter into negotiations to ban the bomb, which is more than the other eight nuclear weapons states have been willing to support.

    Furthermore, North Korea has been seeking an official end to the Korean War of 1953, during which time the US continues to station about 28,000 troops on its borders while trying to starve North Korea out with drastic sanctions all these many years.

    Perhaps Secretary General Ban Ki-moon can leave his office with an important victory at the end of his term by seizing this opportunity and encouraging the “deal maker” in Trump to move forward with a US-Russia rapprochement, clearing a pathway for the elimination of nuclear weapons as well as putting an end to the hostilities on the Korean peninsula.