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  • NAPF Honors David Krieger at the 2019 Evening for Peace

    NAPF Honors David Krieger at the 2019 Evening for Peace

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    The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation honored David Krieger at the 2019 Evening for Peace, which took place on October 20, 2019.

    David co-founded the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation in 1982 and has led the organization as its President for nearly four decades. He has dedicated his life’s work to ending the nuclear age and has been a mentor, a respected colleague, and an inspiration to countless people across the globe.

    Use the arrows on the photo below to scroll through our 2019 Evening for Peace photo album.

    2019 Evening for Peace

    Highlights of the 36th Annual Evening for Peace

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    Soka University Koto Club

    The Koto Club of Soka University of America performed at the Evening for Peace.

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    Anna Ikeda

    Anna Ikeda, Program Associate for the SGI Office of UN Affairs, presented David Krieger with the Soka Award of Honor.

    Audio of Anna Ikeda’s award presentation.

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    Daniel Ellsberg

    Transcript of NAPF Distinguished Fellow Daniel Ellsberg’s remarks.

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    Perie Longo

    Perie Longo read three poems at the Evening for Peace.

    A Poem for the Crossroads by David Krieger.

    I Refuse by David Krieger

    For David Krieger by Perie Longo.

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    Sandy Jones and Hal Maynard

    Sandy Jones and Hal Maynard performed an original song they wrote for David Krieger.

    Video and audio coming soon.

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    Mara Sweeney

    Dr. Mara Sweeney spoke passionately about David Krieger: her father, “the peace dude.”

    Transcript of Mara Sweeney’s remarks.

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    Robert Laney

    NAPF Board Chair Robert Laney delivered remarks about David Krieger’s career.

    Transcript of Robert Laney’s remarks.

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    David Krieger

    NAPF President David Krieger accepted the Distinguished Peace Leadership Award.

    Transcript of David Krieger’s remarks.

    Audio of David Krieger’s remarks.

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    Rick Wayman

    NAPF’s incoming CEO, Rick Wayman, delivered closing remarks on the past, present, and future of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

    Transcript of Rick Wayman’s remarks.

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    Video Tribute to David

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  • Honoring David Krieger

    Honoring David Krieger

    Daniel Ellsberg sent this statement to honor NAPF President David Krieger at the 36th Annual Evening for Peace.

    I am intensely sorry that—having recently and, I hope, temporarily, lost my voice– I am unable to be here today in person, with so many of my friends, mentors and heroes who have come to honor David Krieger. But I am glad to have the opportunity to speak from my heart, about David and the work he has so long been pursuing.

    There is no more important work in the world today than abolishing the ever-imminent danger of near-extinction of humanity posed by the existence of nuclear weapons.

    Yes, obviously, beginning belatedly and urgently to avert the global danger of catastrophic climate change is comparably of the highest level of importance. Yet it is misleading to describe that overwhelming problem, as is too-often done lately, as the only “existential” threat to human survival. As everyone here today recognizes, there are at least two existential challenges, for one of which—the need to abolish nuclear weapons—David Krieger has been perhaps the most consistent, most eloquent prophetic voices of the last half century.

    No one has more steadily and tenaciously focused us on that urgent objective than David. His appreciation of the need for a Nuclear Age Peace Foundation devoted single-mindedly to that pursuit was visionary. And the need is, if anything, even greater today.

    That fact in itself is undoubtedly frustrating; to someone less suited than David for what appears at times a Sisyphean effort, it could be discouraging. Fortunately, we have had David Krieger and those he has encouraged and inspired to press on, against the current, to keep that vision alive. Its achievement, I believe, is essential to keeping the human project going.

    David, I wish I were here to tell you and Carolee in person what your energy and dedication to the goal of keeping the human struggle going have meant to me and Patricia. It’s best expressed, it’s seemed to me, in lines by Stephen Spender in a poem entitled: “I think continually of those who were truly great.” The poem is in the past tense, which fortunately is not at all appropriate in this case. But the last verse, in particular, has always made me think of you (and of the many you have brought together today and in the past):

    Near the snow, near the sun, in the highest fields,
    See how these names are fêted by the waving grass
    And by the streamers of white cloud
    And whispers of wind in the listening sky.
    The names of those who in their lives fought for life,
    Who wore at their hearts the fire’s centre.
    Born of the sun, they travelled a short while toward the sun
    And left the vivid air signed with their honour.

  • Estados Unidos Lanzó Pruebas de Misiles del Minuteman III desde la Base Vandenberg de la Fuerza Aerea

    Estados Unidos Lanzó Pruebas de Misiles del Minuteman III desde la Base Vandenberg de la Fuerza Aerea

    Para publicación inmediata
    Contacto:
    Sandy Jones (805) 965-3443; sjones@napf.org
    Ruben Arvizu; rarvizu@napf.org

    Santa Bárbara, CA: El 2 de octubre a la 1:13 am, se inició una prueba de misiles ICBM Minuteman III desarmados desde la Base Vandenberg, de la Fuerza Aérea.  Irónicamente, la prueba coincide con el aniversario del cumpleaños de Mahatma Gandhi, el gran activista que promovió siempre una India no violenta.

    Rick Wayman, Director Adjunto de la Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF), una organización sin fines de lucro con sede en Santa Bárbara dedicada a la abolición de las armas nucleares, comentó: “La semana pasada, trece países reafirmaron sus lazos formales con el Tratado sobre la Prohibición de las Armas Nucleares . Esta semana, Estados Unidos probará otro misil nuclear. Más que una ‘prueba operativa’, nos recuerda que el mundo tal como lo conocemos puede desaparecer en un instante “.

    Los representantes del Comando de Ataque Global de la Fuerza Aérea afirman que las pruebas de misiles están programadas con meses o años de anticipación y no están vinculadas a los eventos geopolíticos actuales. Sin embargo, David Krieger, presidente de NAPF, señala que el acto mismo tiene ramificaciones importantes.

    Krieger afirma: “Las pruebas de misiles como esta tienen el efecto de normalizar la perspectiva de la aniquilación nuclear. Los ciudadanos deben analizar más a fondo la amenaza que representan las armas nucleares para el planeta y para todos sus habitantes. Cada una de estas pruebas de misiles proporciona evidencia de hasta qué punto nuestros líderes políticos y militares nos están fallando al hacer rutinaria la prueba de misiles en lugar de comprometerse en el esfuerzo necesario para abolir las armas nucleares “. Krieger agregó:      “Las generaciones futuras verán como un crimen la normalización de los medios para la aniquilación universal “.

    # # #

    Si desea entrevistar a David Krieger, presidente de la Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, o Rick Wayman, subdirector de la fundación, llame al (805) 965-3443 o (805) 696-5159. La misión de la Nuclear Age Peace Foundation es educar, defender e inspirar acciones para un mundo justo y pacífico, libre de armas nucleares. Fundada en 1982, la Fundación está compuesta por individuos y organizaciones en todo el mundo que se dan cuenta de lo imperativo que es la paz en la Era Nuclear. La Nuclear Age Peace Foundation es una organización no partidista y sin fines de lucro con estatus consultivo ante las Naciones Unidas. Para más información, visite wagingpeace.org.

  • Conference on the Nexus between Climate Change and International Security

    Conference on the Nexus between Climate Change and International Security

    On September 23rd, the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and NYU UN Initiative co-hosted a conference regarding the nexus between climate change and global security. Prominent experts and youth activists, such as Dr. Tara Drozdenko, Managing Director of Nuclear Policy & Nonproliferation of the Outrider Foundation; Ms. Lovely Umayam, Founder of Bombshelltoe; Mr. Seth Shelden, the UN Liaison of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN); and Ms. Amanda Simonsen, a Youth Representative of Peace Boat US, shared their views on these two existential issues. The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation was represented on behalf of Mr. Christian N. Ciobanu, our New York and Youth Representative. Peace Boat US, Peace Action New York State, NYU International Relations Society, and NYU United Nations Initiative co-sponsored the event.

    Dr. Drozdenko spoke candidly about the dangers of the receding ice caps in Greenland, which, as a result of climate change, will expose radioactive waste from the US that has been buried under the ice since the height of the Cold War. Further, she also discussed the “Castle Bravo” thermonuclear test, which caused significant radioactive fallout in the Marshall Islands. In order to “trap” the radiation, the US built the Runit Dome, which is slowly being cracked and worn down by the rising sea levels in the Pacific.  She also discussed how the water crisis in Kashmir could exacerbate tensions between Pakistan and India, two nuclear-armed states.

    Mr. Shelden introduced the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Mr. Shelden spoke about TPNW’s positive obligations, including its provisions on victim assistance and environmental remediation. Additionally, Mr. Shelden underscored the necessity for activists to broaden the climate crisis discussion to include the possibility of an abrupt nuclear winter.  In this regard, he discussed how the effects of a limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could impact the global surface temperature and cause a decline in food production that would put two billion people at risk.

    Ms. Umayam shared her decision to engage with the Navajo communities living near contaminated uranium mines. She also presented her unique project, Ways of Knowing, in which she works with the Navajo communities to rebuild themselves through traditional storytelling and citizen science. This  multimedia project reveals personal experiences and injustices linked to the enviromental impact of nuclear testing in order to understand the profound consequences of the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy. In essence, the project illustrates both the humanitarian and environmental impacts of nuclear weapons in the US and the necessity for citizens, especially those affected by nuclear weapons, to engage in the nuclear conversation. More information about the project can be found here.

    Mr. Ciobanu was our penultimate speaker. He provided further insights on the exposure of nuclear waste from the dome in the Marshall Islands and described both the humanitarian and enviromentals impacts of nuclear testing in the Marshall Islands. He also shared Columbia University’s recent studies about a possible nuclear dumping site on Naen Island, Rongelap Atoll. He also detailed the works of Ms. Darlene Keju, Marshallese activist and educator; and Mr. Tony deBrum, former Marshallese politician, and their methods of disarmament activism. Mr. Ciobanu also highlighted deBrum’s strong leadership in the climate movement. Significantly, deBrum succeeded in forming the High Ambition Coalition, a coalition between developing and developed countries to hold global temperatures to a 1.5C increase. Mr. Ciobanu then placed a strong emphasis on youth involvement by showing a video featuring Ms. Kathy Jetnil Kijiner, a Marshallese youth activist, and explaining how students can be involved in both climate action and disarmament activism.

    Ms. Simonsen wrapped up our event by highlighting Peace Boat US, a non-governmental organization that is focused on human rights, maintaining peace, and environmental protection.  The organization hosts study programs, collaborates with Nobel Peace Laureates, and promotes peace education by having guest educators engage students in onboard activities, conferences, workshops, and cultural exchange opportunities. Moreover, as detailed by Ms. Simonsen, Peace Boat has oceans and climate youth ambassadors from Small Island Developing States (SIDS). These young people are on the frontlines of climate change and marine degradation. Several of them are also tackling the effects of nuclear testing in the South Pacific. Finally, Ms. Simonsen discussed Peace Boat’s “Youth for Disarmament,” a joint initiative with the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs.

  • Why Work to Abolish Nuclear Weapons?

    Why Work to Abolish Nuclear Weapons?

    We can change the world in important and necessary ways.

    We can take a giant step forward for humankind.

    We can join with others in demonstrating good stewardship of the planet.

    We can take control of our most dangerous technology.

    We can help shape a more decent common future.

    We can end the threat of omnicide posed by nuclear weapons.

    We can uphold international law for the common benefit.

    We can lead the way toward ending war as a human institution.

    We can meet the greatest challenge confronting our species.

    We can put compassion into action and action into compassion.

    We can help to protect everything in life that we treasure.

    We can pass on a more secure world to our children and grandchildren and all future generations.

  • U.S. Launches Minuteman III Missile Test from Vandenberg AFB

    U.S. Launches Minuteman III Missile Test from Vandenberg AFB

    NUCLEAR AGE PEACE FOUNDATION

    For Immediate Release

    Contact: Sandy Jones  (805) 965-3443; sjones@napf.org

    Rick Wayman  (805) 696-5159; rwayman@napf.org

     

    Santa Barbara, CA – An unarmed Minuteman III ICBM missile test is scheduled to launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base on Wednesday morning, October 2, between 1:13 and 7:13 a.m. Ironically, the test will fall on the anniversary of the birthday of Mahatma Gandhi, the great non-violent Indian peace activist.

    Rick Wayman, Deputy Director of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF), a Santa Barbara based non-profit dedicated to the abolition of nuclear weapons commented, “Last week, thirteen countries deepened their formal ties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This week, the U.S. will test yet another nuclear missile. More than an ‘operational test’ it reminds us that the world as we know it can be wiped out in an instant.”

    Air Force Global Strike Command representatives assert that missile tests are scheduled months or years in advance and are not connected to current geopolitical events. However, David Krieger, President of NAPF, points out that the very act of testing has important ramifications.

    Krieger states, “Missile tests such as this one have the effect of normalizing the prospect of nuclear annihilation. Citizens need to look more deeply at the threat nuclear weapons pose to the planet and all its inhabitants. Each of these missile tests provides us evidence of the extent to which our political and military leaders are failing us by making missile testing routine rather than engaging in the necessary effort to abolish nuclear weapons.” Krieger added, “Future generations will not look kindly on this normalization of the means for universal death.”

    #        #         #

    If you would like to interview David Krieger, President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, or Rick Wayman, Deputy Director of the Foundation, please call (805) 965-3443 or (805) 696-5159. The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation’s mission is to educate, advocate and inspire action for a just and peaceful world, free of nuclear weapons. Founded in 1982, the Foundation is comprised of individuals and organizations worldwide who realize the imperative for peace in the Nuclear Age. The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation is a non-partisan, non-profit organization with consultative status to the United Nations. For more information, visit wagingpeace.org.

  • Sunflower Newsletter: October 2019

    Sunflower Newsletter: October 2019

     

  • A brief review of Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program

    A brief review of Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program

    Click here for a longer version of this article.

    Saudi Arabia is not a nuclear weapons state and has always declared that it is only interested in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The Saudi Kingdom manifested an interest in nuclear energy during the 1960s, and started its civilian nuclear program in the 1970s. In 1977, Saudi Arabia built its nuclear plant for the development of a civilian nuclear program – the King Abd Al-Aziz Centre for Science and Technology (KAACST) – in Riyadh, and in 1988 the Atomic Energy Research Institute (AERI) was established. In that same year, Riyadh signed the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and, since the start of the 21st century, has advocated for the establishment of a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East (MENWFZ). In 2006, in fact, Saudi Arabia, and six other member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – announced that the Council was commissioning a study on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. It was on this occasion that Saudi Arabia outlined plans to construct up to 16 large nuclear reactors over the course of 20 to 25 years to provide the Kingdom with 17 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2040.[1] Two years later, Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding under the auspices of the Atoms for Peace program with the Bush administration, through which the U.S. would sell nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel to Saudi Arabia for its development of a civil nuclear program, specifying that no support would be given to the building of an atomic bomb by Riyadh. Shortly after the memorandum with the U.S., Saudi Arabia established nuclear cooperation agreements with France (2011); South Korea (2011); China (2012); and other nuclear companies such as INVAP, in Argentina (2015); Rosatom, in Russia (2015); CNEC, in China (2016 and 2017); JAEC and JUMCO, in Jordan (2017). It had also initiated talks with the government of the Czech Republic, Russia and United Kingdom with the purpose of fulfilling its aspiration to build its nuclear rectors.[2]

    Suspicions about Riyadh’s true intentions surfaced at the end of the 1990s, when rumors about possible collusion on a joint nuclear weapon program between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia surfaced due to several high-profile interactions between the two governments.[3] To increase the level of suspicion was (and still is) the consideration that even though Saudi Arabia has been part of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since 1962, the Crown hasn’t subscribed to the comprehensive safeguards agreement, thus preventing IAEA inspectors from accessing its nuclear facilities.

    In 2016, Nuclear Threat Initiative reported: “Saudi Arabia possesses only a rudimentary civil nuclear infrastructure, and currently lacks the physical and technological resources to develop an indigenous nuclear weapons capability.”[4] It became even more of a concern when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared in 2018 that if Iran were to develop a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia would follow suit.[5] Recent developments that are throwing Iran into open hostility with the United States and its allies in the region – Saudi Arabia being one of them – make Prince bin Salman’s declaration worrisome.

    The threat posed by Iran adds to some murky indicators surrounding Riyadh’s nuclear program, and some revelations regarding recent secret deals with the Trump administration. Altogether, they strongly suggest that Saudi Arabia is considering developing nuclear weapons with the complicity of the United States. In April 2019, Bloomberg published some satellite pictures showing the development, over two years, of a columnar vessel at a reactor facility in Riyadh that would plausibly contain atomic fuel, and that seemed to be nearly completed.[6] This represents a problematic factor, considering the impossibility that the IAEA could pursue inspections.

    The same article elucidates that the Trump administration is advancing sales of nuclear power plants and technology to Saudi Arabia, and had kept the deals away from Congressional scrutiny. The six secret authorizations are known as Part 810 authorizations, which would authorize sharing U.S. nuclear power technology with Saudi Arabia. To this regard, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has refused to disclose the nature of the authorizations when asked to do so by Congress.

    Finally, the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal satisfies economic interests. In fact, the nuclear energy market is very slim, and there are many lobbyists who can exercise pressure to induce a government – and U.S. government constitutes no exception – to enter into deals with countries that do want to invest on a nuclear program. It is known that there are numerous lobbyist forces in the U.S. that can be interested in the deal, which include: a few American energy firms, such as General Electric, NuScale, TerraPower and Westinghouse; Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who has a strong friendship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and might have some connections with the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal as a way to recover from financial losses; Michael Flynn, a retired Army lieutenant general and President Donald Trump’s first national security adviser, who has been trying to secure a deal of this kind with the Middle East for years and is currently under investigation by the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Reform.

    The U.S. administration argued that there is no direct linkage between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons, and declared that it is working to ensure that Saudi Arabia’s program develops transparently and only for civil purposes. However, any nuclear power plant that has been built (or is planned) in Saudi Arabia will be fueled with uranium that can be enriched to uranium-235, which is what is needed to build a nuclear bomb. Moreover, all nuclear reactors produce plutonium, which is also used to make nuclear weapons. Even if concerns over the possibility that Saudi Arabia is pursuing a nuclear weapon are cast aside, a recent approval of an $8 billion sale of conventional weapons to Saudi Arabia by the Trump administration without Congressional approval (again) has met with Congressional concern and has contributed to increased tensions in the region for two reasons, at least. First, the deal was approved following the crisis with Iran in June 2019 after Iran downed a U.S. Global Hawk drone in the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after this event Mike Pompeo confirmed the U.S. was trying to build a global coalition against Iran, not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe and Asia, thus adding fuel to the fire.[7] Second, there is concern that the weapons could be used by Saudi Arabia in Yemen to kill thousands of civilians.

    The muddy atmosphere surrounding the U.S. – Saudi nuclear deal has not been dispelled. We are left only with the hope that, if and when clarity is achieved, it won’t be too late.

    Footnotes

    [1] “Nuclear power in Saudi Arabia,” World Nuclear Association (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-o-s/saudi-arabia.aspx).

    [2] For further details, see ibidem.

    [3] “Saudi Arabia – Nuclear,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, July 2016 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/saudi-arabia/nuclear/).

    [4] Ibidem.

    [5] Tirone, Jonathan, “Before Saudi Arabia goes nuclear, it may have to follow Iran’s lead,” Bloomberg, March 6, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/before-saudi-goes-nuclear-it-may-have-to-follow-iran-s-lead).

    [6] Tirone, Jonathan, “First images of Saudi nuclear reactor show plant nearing finish,” Bloomberg, April 3, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-03/first-images-of-saudi-nuclear-reactor-show-plant-nearing-finish).

    [7] Morello, Carol, “Iran crisis looms over Pompeo’s trip to Middle East, Asia,” The Washington Post, June 23, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pompeo-confronts-dual-crises-as-he-begins-trip-to-middle-east-asia/2019/06/23/c77180d0-95db-11e9-8d0a-5edd7e2025b1_story.html?noredirect=on).

  • Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Program

    Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Program

    Click here for a shorter version of this article.

    From declaration of support of a nuclear-weapons-free-zone to suspicions

    Saudi Arabia is not a nuclear weapons state and has always declared that it is only interested in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. However, recent developments in Iran are increasing the militarization of the Middle East. These together with some murky indicators and secrecy surrounding Riyadh’s nuclear program, strongly suggest that Saudi Arabia is considering developing nuclear weapons, while avoiding inspections.

    Saudi Arabia manifested its own interest in nuclear energy during the 1960s, and started its civilian nuclear program in the 1970s. Its nuclear plant for the development of a civilian nuclear program – the King Abd Al-Aziz Centre for Science and Technology (KAACST) – was built in 1977 in Riyadh. Subsequently, the Atomic Energy Research Institute (AERI) was established in 1988. In that same year, Riyadh signed the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and, since the start of the 21st century, has advocated for the establishment of a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East.

    There has been credible speculation that Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Pakistan’s and Iraq’s nuclear weapons programs was a signal of shared ambitions. These speculations were reinforced by the declaration of former Saudi diplomat Muhammed al Khilewi, who defected to the United States in the 1990s and leaked that his government had plans to acquire a nuclear weapon.[1] The veracity of these statements, however, is still shrouded in doubt and was not confirmed by the Clinton administration, which granted asylum to al Khilewi.

    In December 2006 Saudi Arabia, and six other member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – announced that the Council was commissioning a study on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. It was on this occasion that Saudi Arabia outlined plans to construct up to 16 large nuclear reactors over the course of 20 to 25 years to provide the Kingdom with 17 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2040.[2] Two years later, Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding under the auspices of the Atoms for Peace program with the Bush administration, through which the U.S. would sell nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel to Saudi Arabia for its development of a civil nuclear program, specifying that no support would be given to the building of an atomic bomb by Riyadh. Shortly after the memorandum with the U.S., Saudi Arabia established nuclear cooperation agreements with France (2011); South Korea (2011); China (2012); and other nuclear companies such as INVAP, in Argentina (2015); Rosatom, in Russia (2015); CNEC, in China (2016 and 2017); JAEC and JUMCO, in Jordan (2017). It had also initiated talks with the government of the Czech Republic, Russia and United Kingdom with the purpose of fulfilling its aspiration to build its nuclear rectors.[3]

    Suspicions about Riyadh’s true intentions surfaced at the end of the 1990s, when rumors about possible collusion on a joint nuclear weapon program between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia surfaced due to several high-profile interactions between the two governments.[4] However, as had happened previously, the veracity of the nuclear program could not be established. Officially and publicly, in 2015, Saudi Arabia applauded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran, the P5 – namely, China, France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russia -, plus Germany. However, soon after Saudi Arabia expressed concerns over Iran’s nuclear program.

    In 2016, Nuclear Threat Initiative reported: “Saudi Arabia possesses only a rudimentary civil nuclear infrastructure, and currently lacks the physical and technological resources to develop an indigenous nuclear weapons capability.”[5] It became nonetheless a country of concern when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared in 2018 that if Iran were to develop a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia would follow suit.[6]

    In April 2019, Bloomberg published some satellite pictures showing the development, over two years, of a columnar vessel at a reactor facility in Riyadh that would plausibly contain atomic fuel, and that seemed to be nearly completed.[7] The discovery gave international experts good reason to be alarmed. In fact, Saudi Arabia does not allow inspections and is not part of the international legal framework that ensures that civil nuclear programs won’t be transformed to military uses. The images do nothing but cast doubt over Saudi Arabia’s credibility. Despite the fact that Riyadh has repeatedly stated that the country does not intend to develop a nuclear weapon, some contradictions are worthy of consideration.

    First, the Saudi government has repeatedly maintained that its nuclear power program constitutes a way to move from fossil fuels consumption for a twofold reason: for climate change imperatives and for diverting all its fossil fuels resources to the international market, rather than to internal consumption. However, as brilliantly argued in an article published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Saudi Arabia is not aggressively seeking to pursue solar energy, which would be the most economically convenient source of energy for the country, alternative to fossil fuels, even when Iran was limited by the 2015 deal.[8] As the article points out:

    The limited efforts in installing solar power capacity on the part of the Saudi government suggest that climate action and economics may not be the driving motivations for its extensive nuclear energy plan. Indeed, members of the Saudi regime have, on other occasions, made it clear that their interest in nuclear energy derive from the idea that it would help them acquire the capability to make nuclear weapons and match Iran, whose regional status is seen to have risen as a result of its uranium enrichment program.

    To this point, some have argued that solar energy cannot benefit Saudi Arabia long-term because it is not exportable, and, therefore, cannot provide a reliable source of income for the country. However, this argument does not take into account that, until all countries start relying on alternative energy sources instead of fossil fuels, if it’s really in Saudi Arabia’s interest to go green, they can rely on solar energy domestically and keep exporting oil and gas externally, as Riyadh’s previous statements seem to imply.

    Dirty business with the Trump administration

    Second, Bloomberg’s article elucidates that the Trump administration is advancing sales of nuclear power plants and technology to Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry approved six secret authorizations, known as Part 810 authorizations, which would authorize sharing U.S. nuclear power technology with Saudi Arabia. This move is creating alarm within the U.S. Congress, as well as the international community. The Part 810 authorizations refers to the process set forth in 10 Code of Federal Regulations Part 810, which, under the authority of section 57.b of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, allows the U.S. Secretary of Energy to engage, directly or indirectly, in the production of special nuclear material outside the United States, and share technological information – but not pieces of equipment – for the functioning of nuclear reactors. The information is non-classified, but contains sensitive details about nuclear energy reactors U.S. companies are trying to sell to Saudi Arabia and, unlike Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act (AEA) of 1954,[9] they don’t require congressional oversight.

    While respecting the need for U.S. companies to protect their proprietary information from competitors, the U.S. Congress has demanded that the Department of Energy share more information about the Part 810 authorizations with the Subcommittee Asia, the Pacific and Nonproliferation of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs on, in order for Congress to have sufficient information to fulfill its constitutional oversight responsibilities, and to fulfill legal obligations that require that the Congress must be “fully and currently informed,” as the Atomic Energy Act requires. The U.S. House of Representatives presented an Interim Staff Report in February 2019, titled “Whistleblowers Raise Grave Concerns with Trump Administration’s Efforts to Transfer Sensitive Nuclear Technology to Saudi Arabia.” The report collected testimonies by whistleblowers from within the Trump administration, and states:

    The Trump Administration’s interactions with Saudi Arabia have been shrouded in secrecy, raising significant questions about the nature of the relationship. In 2017, President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, orchestrated a visit to Saudi Arabia as the President’s first overseas trip. Mr. Kushner also met on his own with then-Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who subsequently ousted his cousin, Mohammed bin Nayef, launched a crackdown against dozens of Saudi royal family members, and reportedly bragged that Mr. Kushner was “in his pocket.” In October 2018, the brutal murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was met with equivocation by President Trump and other top Administration officials. This month, the White House ignored a 120-day deadline for a report on Mr. Khashoggi’s killing requested on a bipartisan basis by the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. Within the United States, strong private commercial interests have been pressing aggressively for the transfer of highly sensitive nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia—a potential risk to U.S. national security absent adequate safeguards. These commercial entities stand to reap billions of dollars through contracts associated with constructing and operating nuclear facilities in Saudi Arabia—and apparently have been in close and repeated contact with President Trump and his Administration to the present day. However, experts worry that transferring sensitive U.S. nuclear technology could allow Saudi Arabia to produce nuclear weapons that contribute to the proliferation of nuclear arms throughout an already unstable Middle East.[10]

    The Report raises concerns over the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal. When questioned, U.S. Secretary Perry said that, if not provided by the U.S., Saudi Arabia will look for the support of China and Russia for the development of their nuclear program. In his view these countries do not support non-proliferation, and the U.S., by establishing deals with the Saudis, is therefore establishing a framework for monitoring that Saudi Arabia’s program is compliant with non-proliferation requirements.[11] U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been asked by congressman Brad Sherman – Chair of the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs on Asia, the Pacific and Nonproliferation – whether the deal would provide Saudi Arabia with nuclear technology before they enter into agreements that will prevent the reprocessing and enrichment of uranium. Pompeo responded that U.S. State Department and the Department of Energy have been working jointly to not allow that to happen. However, when further rebuked that the Saudis might want to avoid international inspections and close control of their nuclear program because they, ultimately, want to build the nuclear bomb, Pompeo vaguely responded: “We are working to ensure that the nuclear power they [Saudi Arabia] get is something we understand and doesn’t present that risk.”[12] However, as correctly highlighted by Congressman Sherman, the secrecy shrouding the six authorizations renders Pompeo’s declaration before Congress inconsistent.

    Third, the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal satisfies both political and economic interests. Politically, the possession of nuclear weapons is seen as protection, as well as prestige, especially for countries located in unstable regions, surrounded by perceived threatening neighbors. From an economic perspective, the nuclear energy market is very slim, so lobbyists can exercise pressure to induce a government to enter into deals with countries that do want to invest on a nuclear program, as is the case of the U.S.-Saudi Arabia deal. A few American energy firms, including General Electric, NuScale, TerraPower and Westinghouse are interested in securing nuclear deals with countries that aim to develop a nuclear program. They don’t seem to care whether a country has nuclear weapons aspirations, although this is primarily a governmental responsibility. Westinghouse, the largest nuclear reactor supplier in the United States, filed for bankruptcy protection in 2017, and was purchased by the Canadian Company Brookfield Business Partners, a subsidiary of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. This company has, in turn, leased an unprofitable building in New York City – the 666 Fifth Avenue – from President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner’s family’s real estate company – Kushner Companies LLC – in 2007. The purchase of the 666 Fifth tower was intended to place the Kushners at the top ranks of New York real estate from their headquarters in New Jersey, where they were accumulated a huge portfolio of garden apartment complexes. Kushner Companies LLC moved their company headquarters to 666 Fifth, from where they intended to develop an empire that included former industrial buildings in Brooklyn, apartments in Maryland and development sites in Jersey City, N.J. But they were unable to get the office rents they expected in 2007, making it difficult to pay the initial $1.8 billion debt on the building because the recession hit causing the company to enter into debt.[13]  The price paid by the Kushner Companies LLC was the highest price ever paid for a single office building in the United States, and the Kushners have been trying to off-load the debt for many years. Although this deal has no apparent connection with the deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the timing of the Brookfield’s deal suggests the contrary. Moreover, Jared Kushner and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are very close friends, an element that throws suspicion over the reason behind the deal. To complicate things further, other participants interested in the deal with Saudi Arabia have exercised an enormous amount of pressure. These are retired Army lieutenant general and President Donald Trump’s first national security adviser Michael Flynn, who has been trying to secure a deal of this kind with the Middle East for years and is currently under investigation by the House Committee on Oversight and Reform. The U.S. House of Representatives 2019 Report mentioned above elucidates how Flynn worked closely on the plan with a group of retired U.S. generals and admirals who had formed a private company to promote it.[14] The IP3 Corporation, a nuclear technology company established in 2016 by retired U.S. military officials, is, indeed, another actor interested in pursuing the deal with the Saudi Crown.[15]  Together with the Kushner Company, these companies raise issues of conflict of interest with regard to the deal they have been pursuing.

    The U.S. administration argued that there is no direct linkage between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons, and declared that it is working to ensure that Saudi Arabia’s program develops transparently and only for civil purposes. However, any nuclear power plant that has been built (or is planned) in Saudi Arabia will be fueled with uranium that can be enriched to uranium-235, which is what is needed to build a nuclear bomb. Moreover, all nuclear reactors produce plutonium, which is also used to make nuclear weapons. The most dramatic aspect is that Saudi Arabia has been part of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since 1962, but hasn’t subscribed to the comprehensive safeguards agreement, which would allow IAEA inspectors to access its nuclear facilities. The Kingdom only signed the Small Quantity Protocol (SQP), which “was made available to States with minimal or no nuclear material and no nuclear material in a ‘facility.’”[16] Technically, Saudi Arabia signed the IAEA Safeguards Agreements, which has been in force since January 2009,[17] but “[t]he original small quantities protocol suspends the application of many provisions of the comprehensive safeguards agreement,”[18]  thereby not allowing the IAEA inspectors to access Saudi Arabia’s nuclear facilities. Yukiya Amano, former IAEA’s director general, stated clearly that before importing nuclear fuel, Saudi Arabia would have to agree to a program of inspections and other safeguards. He appealed to Saudi Arabia to withdraw from the SQP, which he has defined as “old ways of doing business,”[19] and conclude and implement IAEA’s additional protocols, instead. So far, Saudi Arabia has not responded to the IAEA’s request.

    Even if concerns over the possibility that Saudi Arabia is pursuing a nuclear weapon are cast aside, a recent approval of an $8 billion sale of conventional weapons to Saudi Arabia by the Trump administration without Congressional approval has met with Congressional concern and has contributed to increased tensions in the region for two reasons, at least. First, the deal was approved following the crisis with Iran in June 2019 after Iran downed a U.S. Global Hawk drone in the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after this event Mike Pompeo confirmed the U.S. was trying to build a global coalition against Iran, not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe and Asia, thus adding fuel to the fire.[20] Second, there is concern that the weapons could be used by Saudi Arabia in Yemen to kill thousands of civilians. So far, the Trump administration has failed to fully explain its role in the war against Yemen and members of Congress have heavily criticized U.S. support to Saudi Arabia, considering its horrifying human rights record.[21] The U.S. Senate approved a joint resolution in July 2019 that prohibits the selling of the weapons.[22] However, for it to become effective, the U.S. Congress will need to overcome a presidential veto by supporting the resolution with a two-thirds vote.

    There are at least three signs that indicate that Saudi Arabia might be in the process of building nuclear weapons, and constitute reasons for concern. First, the small research reactor is estimated to be completed by the end of this year. While it is considered to be too small to represent a nuclear proliferation risk, the secrecy surrounding its construction is raising suspicion.[23] With its obligation as a non-nuclear weapons state under the NPT, Saudi Arabia would have to accept IAEA’s scrutiny over its nuclear program. But Riyadh is not allowing IAEA’s inspections and, so far, has not withdrawn from the SQP agreement. Second, there are signs that the deal with the Kushner Companies LLC is directed at selling nuclear material to the Kingdom while avoiding Congressional control and public scrutiny. Third, the refusal by the Trump administration to disclose the details of the six authorizations it has granted Saudi Arabia is surrounded by an unusual level of secrecy. It is vital that this type of deal is supported by full transparency and control. That not being the case, there is enough reason to believe that the intention of both the U.S. administration and Saudi Arabia is to provide the latter with nuclear weapons. Only time will allow the public and policymakers to fully understand the nature of the U.S.-Saudi deal. Considering the dangers this deal contains, clarity might be achieved only after Saudi Arabia will have developed a bomb, most probably in the immediate aftermath of its first nuclear test. Once again, the U.S. government is embarking on the foolish role of international arbiter of all the countries on Earth, and places itself as the only exception, dangerously as well as arrogantly. The muddy atmosphere surrounding the U.S. – Saudi nuclear deal has not been dispelled. We are left only with the hope that, if and when clarity is achieved, it won’t be too late.

    Footnotes

    [1] Fitzpatrick, Mark (2008) Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In The Shadow of Iran, London: International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), p 42.

    [2] “Nuclear power in Saudi Arabia,” World Nuclear Association (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-o-s/saudi-arabia.aspx).

    [3] For further details see ibidem.

    [4] “Saudi Arabia – Nuclear,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, July 2016 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/saudi-arabia/nuclear/).

    [5] Ibidem.

    [6] Tirone, Jonathan, “Before Saudi Arabia goes nuclear, it may have to follow Iran’s lead,” Bloomberg, March 6, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/before-saudi-goes-nuclear-it-may-have-to-follow-iran-s-lead).

    [7] Tirone, Jonathan, “First images of Saudi nuclear reactor show plant nearing finish,” Bloomberg, April 3, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-03/first-images-of-saudi-nuclear-reactor-show-plant-nearing-finish).

    [8] Murphy, Aileen and M.V. Ramana, “The Trump administration is eager to sell nuclear reactors to Saudi Arabia. But why?,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, April 16, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/the-trump-administration-is-eager-to-sell-nuclear-reactors-to-saudi-arabia-but-why/).

    [9] Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act (AEA) of 1954 establishes the conditions and outlines the process for major nuclear cooperation between the United States and other countries. In order for a country to enter into such an agreement with the United States, that country must commit to a set of nine nonproliferation criteria. As of January 15, 2019, the United States has entered into 26 nuclear cooperation agreements that govern nuclear cooperation with 49 countries, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Taiwan. The nine nonproliferation criteria for section 123 agreements are as follows: 1) Nuclear material and equipment transferred to the country must remain under safeguards in perpetuity; 2) Non-nuclear-weapon states partners must have full-scope IAEA safeguards, essentially covering all major nuclear facilities. 3) A guarantee that transferred nuclear material, equipment, and technology will not have any role in nuclear weapons development or any other military purpose, except in the case of cooperation with nuclear-weapon states. 4) In the event that a non-nuclear-weapon state partner detonates a nuclear device using nuclear material produced or violates an IAEA safeguards agreement, the United States has the right to demand the return of any transfers. 5) U.S. consent is required for any re-transfer of material or classified data. 6) Nuclear material transferred or produced as a result of the agreement is subject to adequate physical security. 7) U.S. prior consent rights to the enrichment or reprocessing of nuclear material obtained or produced as a result of the agreement. 8) Prior U.S. approval is required for highly-enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium obtained or produced as a result of the agreement.  An agreement permitting enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) using U.S. provided material requires separate negotiation. 9) The above nonproliferation criteria apply to all nuclear material or nuclear facilities produced or constructed as a result of the agreement. Section 123 requires that the Department of State submit a Nuclear Proliferation Assessment Statement (NPAS) explaining how the nuclear cooperation agreement meets these nonproliferation conditions. Congress has a total of 90 days in continuous session to consider the agreement, after which it automatically becomes law unless Congress adopts a joint resolution opposing it. (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/AEASection123).

    [10] U.S. House of Representatives, “Whistleblowers Raise Grave Concerns with Trump Administration’s Efforts to Transfer Sensitive Nuclear Technology to Saudi Arabia,” Interim Staff Report, February 2019 (Retrievable at https://oversight.house.gov/sites/democrats.oversight.house.gov/files/Trump%20Saudi%20Nuclear%20Report%20-%202-19-2019.pdf Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [11] Lister, Tim and Tamara Qiblawi, “Saudi nuclear program accelerates, raising tensions in a volatile region,” CNN, April 7, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/06/middleeast/saudi-arabia-nuclear-reactor-iran-tensions-intl/index.html).

    [12] “Congressman Brad Sherman Questions Secretary of State Mike Pompeo,” YouTube Video, Published on March 27, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9HTNMN9irk).

    [13] Bagli, Charles V. and Kate Kelly, “Deal gives Kushners cash infusion on 666 Fifth Avenue,” The New York Times, August 3, 2018 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/03/nyregion/kushners-building-fifth-avenue-brookfield-lease.html).

    [14] Morning, Joe, “Flynn pushed to share nuclear tech with Saudi Arabia: Report,” MSNBC, February 20, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/flynn-pushed-to-share-nuclear-tech-with-saudi-arabia-report-1445329987612). See also Colman, Zac, “House report bare White House feud over Saudi Arabia nuclear push,” Politico, February 19, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/19/michael-flynn-saudi-arabia-1174531).

    [15] Reuters, “Trump’s friend tried to profit from Middle East nuclear deal, lawmakers say,” The Guardian, July 29, 2010 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/29/tom-barrack-saudi-arabia-nuclear-deal-envoy).

    [16] https://www.iaea.org/topics/safeguards-legal-framework/more-on-safeguards-agreements (Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [17] https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/status-sg-agreements-comprehensive.pdf (Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [18] https://www.iaea.org/topics/safeguards-legal-framework/more-on-safeguards-agreements (Accessed on September 12, 2019).

    [19] Tirone, Jonathan, “Before Saudi Arabia goes nuclear, it may have to follow Iran’s lead,” Bloomberg, March 6, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/before-saudi-goes-nuclear-it-may-have-to-follow-iran-s-lead). See also Tandon, Shaun, “IAEA demands safeguards from Saudi Arabia on first nuclear reactor,” The Times Of Israel, April 6, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.timesofisrael.com/iaea-asks-saudis-for-safeguards-on-first-nuclear-reactor/).

    [20] Morello, Carol, “Iran crisis looms over Pompeo’s trip to Middle East, Asia,” The Washington Post, June 23, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pompeo-confronts-dual-crises-as-he-begins-trip-to-middle-east-asia/2019/06/23/c77180d0-95db-11e9-8d0a-5edd7e2025b1_story.html?noredirect=on).

    [21] U.S. House of Representatives – Committee on Foreign Affairs, “Engel floor remarks on arms sales resolution of disapproval,” Press release, July 17, 2019 (Accessed September 12, 2019 https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-releases?ID=6B678239-8B0B-43E0-8EC2-98AA4535ECC7).

    [22] S.J.Res.36 – A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval of the proposed transfer to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the Kingdom of Spain, and the Italian Republic of certain defense articles and services.116th Congress (2019-2020) (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/36).

    [23] Borger, Julian, “To import nuclear fuel, Saudi Arabia must agree to inspections – IAEA Chief, The Guardian, April 5, 2019 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/05/to-import-nuclear-fuel-saudi-arabia-must-agree-to-inspections-iaea-chief).

  • Brief review of U.S.-North Korea relationship

    Brief review of U.S.-North Korea relationship

    Click here for a longer version of this article.

    The dynamics that shaped the history of the Korean Peninsula largely affected the dynamics that dominate the current relationship between the Washington and Pyongyang.

    The invasion of Korea by the Soviet Union and United States in the aftermath of the Second World War, and the Korean War that followed, left the Korean peninsula torn apart by death and division. The struggle for the advancement of imperialistic goals by the Soviet Union, which conquered from the North, and the United States, which conquered from the South, caused the death of 3 to 4 million Koreans. Those who survived were separated into two societies – the Republic of Korea (ROK) and North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Ten million families were divided by the 1953 Armistice that confirmed the division of the Korean Peninsula alongside the 38th Parallel that was de facto established in 1945, and their members ended up north or south simply by chance. The imperialistic ambition on the Korean Peninsula by the U.S. and Soviet Union prevented the two Koreas from reaching a Peace Agreement, and set them, still, formally at war. Moreover, the support each side of Korea received from the Soviet Union and the U.S. to recover from the war left entrenched Koreans into different socio-economic conditions, leaving their history marked by inequality.

    In addition to the failure to achieve unification, the impact of the Korean War on U.S. foreign policy still reflects on current geopolitical events by strongly sustaining a pervasive militarization of the region, where the United States became an intrusive presence by holding ambitions toward Indochina, Vietnam and Europe on the basis that these areas were the cradle of communism. This situation ultimately set the terrain for the rise of the global Cold War and the race in nuclear armament that accompanied it. In fact, when President Harry S. Truman was in power, the number of nuclear weapons rose to three hundred in 1950, bringing with them a revolution in strategic thinking alongside the possibility that they could be used on Korean soil.

    In response, North Korea started cultivating its vision at around this time. In the 1950s, the country started to think of nuclear weapons as a way to implement its sogun, namely the “military first” policy through which the country elevated the Korean People’s Army to a guiding principle for its economic and political system. In 1962 North Korea asked the Soviet Union, and later China, for help in developing nuclear weapons but its request was rejected. However, the Soviets agreed to assist North Korea to develop a peaceful nuclear energy program, and in 1963 a research reactor – the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Centre, 100 km north of Pyongyang – was built. Due to isolationism, although despite it, only in the 1980s was North Korea able to operate its nuclear facilities for uranium fabrication and conversion, and to conduct high-explosive detonation tests. Pyongynag signed the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1985, and concluded its first comprehensive safeguard agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and its NPT Safeguards Agreement in 1977 and 1992, respectively, but never allowed inspections, causing the international community to fear for North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

    The pressure imposed upon Pyongyang, in particular by the U.S., was often perceived by North Korea as a declaration of war and an unjust interference, in particular due to the presence of permanent American troops in South Korea. This situation almost set the two Koreas at war with each other in 1994, and brought with it the possibility that the military power that characterised the Cold War could reignite once again. Atomic power included, considering that U.S. atomic bombs are allegedly present in South Korea. Since the 1990s, the policy developed by the United States toward North Korea has been predominantly imposed through harsh sanctions or with threat of military force.

    The United States, and the dictatorial character of the North Korean regime, has isolated the DPRK, reinforcing its own nuclear ambitions based on a sense of threat and inferiority. By appointing a review team whose mandate was to establish a solid policy toward the DPRK, President Bill Clinton approved a policy of “preventive defense” toward North Korea, which establishes, on one side, that threats must be kept from emerging through relying on nuclear deterrence, and, on the other, that “[t]he President should explore with the majority and minority leaders of both houses of Congress ways for the Hill, on a bipartisan basis, to consult on this and future Administrations’ policy toward the DPRK. Just as no policy toward the DPRK can succeed unless it is a combined strategy of the United States and its allies, the policy review team believes no strategy can be sustained over time without the input and support of Congress,”[1] thus ensuring the legacy of this policy. This approach would morph into a policy of “strategic patience” during the Obama presidency, which didn’t reduce reliance on the threat of the use of military force and imposition of sanctions toward North Korea. Thus, amounting to very little gains, but at least, formally and publicly, calling for the necessity of more dialogue.

    In addition to a strong reliance on deterrence, President George W. Bush’s inclusion of North Korea in his “axis of evil” justified the maintenance of sanctions on North Korea. This reinforced, in return, Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, which was able to achieve, on October 9, 2006, its fist underground nuclear test conducted with an explosion yield of one to two kilotons. On May 25, 2009, North Korea tested a second nuclear device carrying a yield of two to eight kilotons; on February 12, 2013, a third nuclear test with an estimated yield of six to nine kilotons; a fourth nuclear test occurred on January 6, 2016[2] and a fifth one that occurred on September 9, 2016. These last two tests had an estimated yield of 10 kilotons and 15 to 25 kilotons, respectively.

    With the advent of President Donald J. Trump in 2017, the anti-North Korea rhetoric and provocations between the two countries escalated. After his election, Kim Jong-un announced his intention to test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), prompting Trump to respond that there was no chance that could happen and to initiate a policy of maximum pressure and sanctions on the northern side of the Korean Peninsula following most of his predecessors’ footsteps. The openly violent rhetoric between the two countries was accompanied by apparently serious considerations of military confrontation, which, fortunately, never became a reality. North Korea conducted what appeared to be its first thermonuclear test on September 3, 2017, and a test of the Hwasong-15 ICBM on November 28, 2017. The last one seemed to be capable of reaching the continental United States inducing Trump to retaliate with high-profile shows of military force on or near the Korean Peninsula. Paradoxically, in spite of the aggressive call and response between the U.S. and North Korea, both countries remained open to negotiations while creating, at the same time, enormous instability, both in the region and within the international community as a whole.

    By the end of 2017, it was estimated that North Korea possessed enough fissile material for up to sixty nuclear weapons. Kim Jong-un indicated a plan to shift from testing and development to the mass production of nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles. Amid these dangerous developments, however, Kim Jong-un searched for a new type of international engagement and nuclear diplomacy with both South Korea and the United States. Since then, he met three times with the leader of South Korea and with President Trump, as well. As I am writing, major news outlets are reporting on the possibility that another meeting between Washington and Pyongyang might happen soon.

    Despite these positive advancements, no concrete plan toward denuclearization has been established, yet, especially considering that the main point that seems to be non-negotiable to the U.S is the condition placed on North Korea to proceed with complete, verifiable, irreversible disarmament of its nuclear weapons program for the advancement of the negotiations. This despite the fact that the U.S. seems not willing to remove its own troops from South Korea. Moreover, amongst South Koreans, there are calls for the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, which would only exacerbate the already tense relationship between North Korea and South Korea; North Korea and the U.S; and the U.S., China and Russia, leaving no space to solve this crisis other than through the silencing of old imperialistic ambitions and the total abolition of nuclear weapons.

    Footnotes

    [1] Office of the North Korea Policy Coordinator, “Review of United States Policy Toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations,” United States Department of State, October 1999. (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/review-united-states-policy-toward-north-korea-findings-and-recommendations).

    [2] Gale, Alastair and Carol E. Lee, “U.S. Agreed to North Korea Peace Talks Before Latest Nuclear Test,” Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2016 (Accessed on September 12, 2019 https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-agreed-to-north-korea-peace-talks-1456076019); Megan Cassella and Doina Chiacu, “U.S. Rejected North Korea Peace Talks Offer Before Last Nuclear Test: State Department,” Reuters, February 21, 2016, (Accessed on September 12, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear/u-s-rejected-north-korea-peace-talks-offer-before-last-nuclear-test-state-department-idUSKCN0VU0XE).