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  • Mistakes of Vietnam repeated with Iraq

    “Welcome to Vietnam, Mr. President. Sorry you didn’t go when you had the chance.”

    The president of the United States decides to go to war against a nation led by a brutal dictator supported by one-party rule. That dictator has made war on his neighbors. The president decides this is a threat to the United States.

    In his campaign for president he gives no indication of wanting to go to war. In fact, he decries the overextension of American military might and says other nations must do more. However, unbeknownst to the American public, the president’s own Pentagon advisers have already cooked up a plan to go to war. All they are looking for is an excuse.

    Based on faulty intelligence, cherry-picked information is fed to Congress and the American people. The president goes on national television to make the case for war, using as part of the rationale an incident that never happened. Congress buys the bait — hook, line and sinker — and passes a resolution giving the president the authority to use “all necessary means” to prosecute the war.

    The war is started with an air and ground attack. Initially there is optimism. The president says we are winning. The cocky, self-assured secretary of defense says we are winning. As a matter of fact, the secretary of defense promises the troops will be home soon.

    However, the truth on the ground that the soldiers face in the war is different than the political policy that sent them there. They face increased opposition from a determined enemy. They are surprised by terrorist attacks, village assassinations, increasing casualties and growing anti-American sentiment. They find themselves bogged down in a guerrilla land war, unable to move forward and unable to disengage because there are no allies to turn the war over to.

    There is no plan B. There is no exit strategy. Military morale declines. The president’s popularity sinks and the American people are increasingly frustrated by the cost of blood and treasure poured into a never-ending war.

    Sound familiar? It does to me.

    The president was Lyndon Johnson. The cocky, self-assured secretary of defense was Robert McNamara. The congressional resolution was the Gulf of Tonkin resolution. The war was the war that I, U.S. Sens. John Kerry, Chuck Hagel and John McCain and 3 1/2 million other Americans of our generation were caught up in. It was the scene of America’s longest war. It was also the locale of the most frustrating outcome of any war this nation has ever fought.

    Unfortunately, the people who drove the engine to get into the war in Iraq never served in Vietnam. Not the president. Not the vice president. Not the secretary of defense. Not the deputy secretary of defense. Too bad. They could have learned some lessons:

    Don’t underestimate the enemy. The enemy always has one option you cannot control. He always has the option to die. This is especially true if you are dealing with true believers and guerillas fighting for their version of reality, whether political or religious. They are what Tom Friedman of The New York Times calls the “non-deterrables.” If those non-deterrables are already in their country, they will be able to wait you out until you go home.

    If the enemy adopts a “hit-and-run” strategy designed to inflict maximum casualties on you, you may win every battle, but (as Walter Lippman once said about Vietnam) you can’t win the war.

    If you adopt a strategy of not just pre-emptive strike but also pre-emptive war, you own the aftermath. You better plan for it. You better have an exit strategy because you cannot stay there indefinitely unless you make it the 51st state.

    If you do stay an extended period of time, you then become an occupier, not a liberator. That feeds the enemy against you.

    . If you adopt the strategy of pre-emptive war, your intelligence must be not just “darn good,” as the president has said; it must be “bulletproof,” as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld claimed the administration’s was against Saddam Hussein. Anything short of that saps credibility.

    If you want to know what is really going on in the war, ask the troops on the ground, not the policy-makers in Washington.

    In a democracy, instead of truth being the first casualty in war, it should be the first cause of war. It is the only way the Congress and the American people can cope with getting through it. As credibility is strained, support for the war and support for the troops go downhill. Continued loss of credibility drains troop morale, the media become more suspicious, the public becomes more incredulous and Congress is reduced to hearings and investigations.

    Instead of learning the lessons of Vietnam, where all of the above happened, the president, the vice president, the secretary of defense and the deputy secretary of defense have gotten this country into a disaster in the desert.

    They attacked a country that had not attacked us. They did so on intelligence that was faulty, misrepresented and highly questionable.

    A key piece of that intelligence was an outright lie that the White House put into the president’s State of the Union speech. These officials have overextended the American military, including the National Guard and the Reserve, and have expanded the U.S. Army to the breaking point.

    A quarter of a million troops are committed to the Iraq war theater, most of them bogged down in Baghdad. Morale is declining and casualties continue to increase. In addition to the human cost, the war in dollars costs $1 billion a week, adding to the additional burden of an already depressed economy.

    The president has declared “major combat over” and sent a message to every terrorist, “Bring them on.” As a result, he has lost more people in his war than his father did in his and there is no end in sight.

    Military commanders are left with extended tours of duty for servicemen and women who were told long ago they were going home. We are keeping American forces on the ground, where they have become sitting ducks in a shooting gallery for every terrorist in the Middle East.

    –Max Cleland, former U.S. senator, was head of the Veterans Administration in the Carter administration. He teaches at American University in Washington.

  • What Victory?

    What Victory?

    What a difference a few months can make.

    At the end of April 2003, just four months ago, Donald Rumsfeld was in the Qatar headquarters of General Tommy Franks, effusively comparing the US victory in Iraq to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the liberation of Paris.

    The fall of the Berlin Wall marked the end of the Cold War and a reuniting of East and West, and the people of Paris actually welcomed the Allied forces as liberators from the Nazis in World War II. In neither case was it necessary for American forces to remain as an occupying force; in neither case did the US government have its eyes on the oil.

    As Rumsfeld savored US military dominance over the far inferior Iraqi forces, he triumphantly crowed, “Never have so many been so wrong about so much.” He was presumably referring to the “many” who doubted American military tactics in the war, not those who thought the war was immoral, illegal and unnecessary.

    It was clearly a day of jubilation for Rumsfeld and he was enjoying trumpeting to the world that he had been right all along.

    A few days later, a triumphant George W. Bush, dressed up like a combat pilot, was flown some thirty miles off the California coast to the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Bush announced to the assembled troops on the carrier that major combat operations in Iraq had ended.

    Bush said: “With new tactics and precision weapons, we can achieve military objectives without directing violence against civilians.” He did not mention that approximately twice as many innocent civilians died in the Iraq War as had died on September 11th. Nor did not mention the Iraqi children who had lost arms and legs and parents as a result of the war, and would carry their injuries through their lives.

    The president, looking to all the world like the military hero he was not, continued: “No device of man can remove the tragedy from war.” He did not say, presumably because he did not think, that with wisdom the tragedy of war might be prevented. Nor did he say that, in the case of this war, it was initiated illegally without UN authorization based on arguments by him and his administration to the American people that the Iraqi regime posed the threat of imminent use of weapons of mass destruction.

    The combat pilot impersonator went on, “Yet it is a great advance when the guilty have far more to fear from war than the innocent.” He might have added that this is especially true when it is he and his colleagues, and them alone, who decide who is guilty and who is innocent.

    As the television cameras rolled on, Bush said, “The battle of Iraq is one victory in a war on terror that began on September 11, 2001, and still goes on.” Four months out his perspective on victory is questionable, and there remains no established link between the regime of Saddam Hussein and the 9/11 terrorists. He was also wrong to conclude that the “battle of Iraq” was a victory or had ended.

    While an action doll of Bush in military garb is being marketed across the country, almost daily young Americans in the occupation force are being killed in what now appears to be an on-going war of liberation from the Americans.

    Saboteurs are blowing up and setting fire to oil pipelines, disrupting water supplies, and attacking UN relief workers. US occupation forces appear helpless to stop the new terrorists that have been created as a result of this war.

    The former Army Chief of Staff, General Eric Shinseki, had argued for a far larger occupying force in Iraq. Rumsfeld overruled him, concluding that a larger force wasn’t needed. It now appears that General Shinseki was right and Rumsfeld was wrong.

    The weapons of mass destruction that the Bush administration alluded to in order to frighten the American people and justify the war have not been found, despite our being told by Cheney that he knew where they were located.

    Four months after Rumsfeld crowed about the liberation of Paris and Bush declared an end to the major combat phase of the war, there is a deadly continuing war of attrition against US and British troops in Iraq. America, far from being hailed as a liberator, has created even more enemies in the Middle East and terrorists seem to be growing in numbers and boldness.

    Paraphrasing Rumsfeld, who himself was paraphrasing Churchill, it might be said: “Never have so few been so wrong about so much.” Rumsfeld, Bush, Cheney and Wolfowitz are the leaders of the militant and shortsighted few. There has been no victory in Iraq, and under the circumstances victory is not possible. We now need a public dialogue on how best to extract ourselves from the perilous situation these men have created before we become ensnared in an oil-driven equivalent of the Vietnam War.

    The starting point for ending this peril is to awaken the American people by a full and open Congressional investigation of the misrepresentations by the Bush administration regarding Iraq’s purported weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for the war. In Britain, the misrepresentations of the Blair government are being vigorously investigated by Parliament, but in the US an investigation of the Bush administration is being blocked by Congressional Republicans. What is needed is an investigation as rigorous as that being pursued in Britain.

    Additionally, as an intermediate step to transferring full administrative authority to the Iraqi people, the United States and Coalition Forces should move immediately to turn over authority for the administration of Iraq to the United Nations. Such a recommendation assumes, perhaps too readily, that the UN would be willing to accept this role and would be able to act with sufficient independence of Washington. By entrusting the future of Iraq to the UN, the United States would make clear that it is not administering Iraq in order to dictate the political future of the country or to enrich US-led corporations with ties to the Bush administration. It would also allow for sharing the security burden in Iraq and make possible the earlier return of the US troops presently in Iraq.
    *David Krieger is the president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (www.wagingpeace.org). He is the editor of Hope in a Dark Time (Capra Press, 2003).

  • Interview with Richard Falk

    1. Is there any basis in international law for recourse to “preemptive war”?

    Most interpretations of international law deny states the right to wage a preemptive war, although international practice is more ambiguous, especially in extenuating circumstances. There were few international objections raised when Israel initiated The Six Day War in 1967, convincingly claiming that it was confronted by an imminent attack by its Arab neighbors, and that its action was justified on the basis of defensive necessity to ensure its survival as a state.

    The invocation of an alleged right to wage preemptive war by the US Government is particularly troubling from the perspective of international law. First of all, the United States has expressed this right in highly abstract language rather than in a specific setting of the sort that led Israel to act in 1967. Secondly, the application of this doctrine of preemptive war was unconvincing to most governments, including most US allies, and to world public opinion, lacking the elements of an imminent threat and defensive necessity. Thirdly, in the aftermath of the Iraq War the failure to find weapons of mass destruction that were the essence of the alleged war-justifying threat has undermined American credibility, leading to re-arguing the rationale for the war on the basis of liberating the Iraqi people from an oppressive ruler. And fourthly, the US Government, despite the absence of urgency, insisted on its right to wage and initiate a non-defensive war against Iraq without receiving any authorization from the UN Security Council.

    The doctrine of preemptive war is not itself destructive of international law, but its dubious applications definitely are. It seems a matter of common sense that if a foreign country had mobilized for war, possessed the capabilities to launch missile attacks on population centers, and was governed by extremists, it would be rational to engage in a preemptive war, and most of the UN would either endorse the response or ignore the stretching of international law under such circumstances. But recourse to preemptive war against Iraq cannot be reconciled with the duty of respect for international law and the UN Charter, and has contributed a dangerous precedent.

    2. Is it possible for any war to be just?

    There is an important difference between just war thinking and international law. International law devotes itself to issues of legality, while just war thinking concentrates on matters of justice and morality, especially as to recourse to war and the means by which it is waged. The just war tradition derives from a religious background, and its guidelines were developed by the great Catholic theologians St. Augustine and St. Thomas Acquinas. The principles of just war, involving just cause and the proportionate and discriminate use of force, have helped to shape the modern law of war, and continue to be treated as valid.

    When asking about whether it is possible for a particular war to be deemed a just war there is no definitive answer. It is a matter of interpretation and judgment. From a strictly pacifist or Gandhian outlook no war is just as political violence is never justified. Many specialists on just war agree that World War II was just as it was a defensive response to German and Japanese aggression, and its outcome removed from power fascist regimes that were guilty of mass atrocities, and what has come to be known as crimes against humanity. But even this war was waged in a manner deemed unjust with respect to means, especially the strategic and indiscriminate bombing of German and Japanese cities causing massive civilian casualties, culminating in the use of atomic bombs against Hiroshima and Nagasaki under conditions in which Japan was already a beaten country. More recently, there have been debates about the wars in Kosovo, Afghanistan, and most significantly, Iraq.

    Although each case is complex, and the facts can be understood in different ways, I will briefly indicate my assessments from a just war perspective. The Kosovo War was a just war because it was undertaken to avoid a likely instance of “ethnic cleansing” undertaken by the Serb leadership of former Yugoslavia, and it succeeded in giving the people of Kosovo an opportunity for a peaceful and democratic future. It was a just war despite being illegally undertaken without authorization by the United Nations, and despite being waged in a manner that unduly caused Kosovar and Serbian civilian casualties, while minimizing the risk of death or injury on the NATO side.

    The Afghanistan War was again controversial in relation to the just war tradition. It seems to qualify as an instance of defensive necessity in view of the high risks of harm associated with the heavy al Qaeda presence in the country, and its demonstrated capacity and will after September 11 to inflict severe harm on the United States in the future. Again, as with Kosovo, the means used and the ends raised serious doubts about the just means and just ends of the war. The American failure to assume the risks of ground warfare in order to carry out the mission of destroying the al Qaeda presence, as well as the failure to convert the battlefield outcomes into a durable peace, raise doubts about the overall justice of the war.

    When it comes to the Iraq War there seems to be little doubt that the war is generally regarded as an unjust war, despite its effect of freeing the Iraqi people from the oppressive rule of Saddam Hussein. The reasons for viewing it as unjust in origin are the following: the absence of defensive necessity, the refusal of the UNSC to authorize war, the dangerous uncertainties associated with recourse to war, the manipulation of evidence relating to the alleged presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the reluctance in the aftermath of the fighting to respect the aspirations of the Iraqi people to achieve political independence and exercise their rights of self-determination. For all of these reasons it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the Iraq War is a clear example of an unjust war.

    As this analysis suggests, it is possible to view a particular war as a just war provided it satisfies the standards of just cause, just means, and just ends. No modern war entirely meets these standards, but those with a just cause and just ends are widely treated as just wars even if the victorious side relied to some extent on unjust means. In this respect, World War II remains the exemplary example of a just war.

    3. Are today’s terrorists tomorrow’s patriots if they win? Does the end justify the means?

    Often it is true that those who are treated as the worst criminals if their violent challenge of the established order fails, are celebrated as the greatest patriots and heroes if their struggle ends in success. Surely, the leaders of the American Revolution would have been hung as traitors if their 18th century efforts to be freed from Britain colonial rule had ended in defeat. As victors, they are hailed without even the slightest doubt as exhibiting the ideals of patriotic virtue. In our own time, most spectacularly, we have witnessed the sudden transformation of Nelson Mandela from being South Africa’s permanent political prisoner, held in jail for 27 years, to the man most admired and celebrated in South Africa, and in the world as a whole.

    Perhaps, the case of Yasir Arafat is most interesting and revealing of arbitrary shifts of perception and treatment. As founder of the Palestinian Liberation Organization and leader of Fatah, Arafat was viewed for years by Israel and the United States as the world’s leading terrorist, a criminal beyond redemption. Then came the Oslo Peace Process in 1993, and Arafat arrives in Washington and appears with Yitzak Rabin and Bill Clinton on the White House lawn. Later on, Rabin is assassinated, and Israeli politics moves sharply to the right, Ariel Sharon becomes Prime Minister, an armed intifada of Palestinian resistance commences, and Arafat is once more condemned as a terrorist and discarded as a representative of the Palestinian people, although elected to be such. Sharon, reinforced by Clinton, and even more so by his successor as American president, George W. Bush, discredited Arafat, holding him responsible for the suicide bombers that caused such harm to Israeli civilian society, and shifting attention away from Israel’s prolonged illegal occupation of the West Bank and Gaza.
    And once again, Arafat was treated by the United States as an illegitimate political leader. But now with “the roadmap” relied upon as a basis for reaching a peaceful solution between the two peoples Arafat reemerges as political leader, although subordinated to his subordinate, Mahmoud Abbas, who has been accepted more readily in Washington and Tel Aviv (than in the West Bank and Gaza) because he has more convincingly repudiated violence as a path to self-determination and statehood for the Palestinian people and seems ready to play the Israeli/American game of one-sided diplomatic negotiations. Arafat continues to be treated as a crucial Palestinian leader in much of Europe and throughout the non-Western world, and of course by the Palestinians themselves.

    In many respects, the treatment of Hitler bears some resemblance to that of Arafat. Hitler emerged from obscurity in the mists of German right wing politics during the 1920s, being imprisoned for his association with violent political tactics. But then, with help from the economic depression of the 1930s that hit Germany particularly hard and from the bitterness instilled in the German people due to their defeat in World War I, followed by the humiliating punitive peace imposed at Versailles, Hitler and his Nazi Party, became the elected government of Germany. Hitler solidified his dictatorial rule, but this did not prevent him from hosting the 1936 Olympic Games in Berlin, a legitimating bonanza for Nazi propaganda. Hitler became the ultra-national German patriot while at the same time he preached a racist message, persecuting Jews, Romas, and others, and preparing Germany for an orgy of aggressive warfare. Of course, Hitler personally did not survive World War II, but had he done so, there is little doubt that he would have been prosecuted as the star war criminal in the course of the Nuremberg trials held in 1945 to impose punishments on the surviving Nazi leadership. No doubt if the war had ended differently, Hitler would have continued to be treated as the legitimate leader representing the German state by most other governments.

    There is an important issue of political language present. The current way of branding the armed enemies of the established order is to call them “terrorists,” focusing on the violence directed at civilian targets. For decades such enemies were more often treated in the West as “Communists,” or Communists were automatically branded as “terrorists” even if they refrained in theory and practice from violence. In South Africa advocacy of racial equality was equated with Communism, and criminalized, or being engaged in trying to promote racial justice was punished as “terrorism.” Also, these days, when Palestinian resisters kill civilians it is called “terrorism,” but when Israeli Apache gunships kill civilians it is called “security.” Language is politics, coloring our imagination, shaping our responses of approval and condemnation.

    What do learn from this chamelon-like experience of political figures who lead revolutionary struggles and initiate aggressive wars against particular arrangement of political power in the world, seeking to liberate an oppressed people or change the structure of world order? Of course, we learn that outcomes matter, that history is largely written by the winners, validating their results and repudiating or ignoring the exploits of the losers. We also learn that those who prevail in conflicts often rely on highly dubious forms of political violence to destroy their current enemies, denying them any respect by calling them “evil.” This process of exaggerating the moral differences between the state and its enemies is also part of the picture. It is not only the “terrorists” that act often as if the end justifies the means, but the legitimate political order, as embodied in the state, as well. Are there limits to this disturbing insight into world politics that seems to count only the result and not whether it was achieved in morally and legally acceptable ways? The only honest answer is, at this point, “not many,” and even these, are not consistently respected despite several century of effort by international law. It is true that admiration for Mandela reflects an appreciation of the way he used his influence to promote a politics of reconciliation in negotiating a bloodless end to racist South Africa during the apartheid era. And on the other side, whatever the Palestinian future, it seems doubtful that Arafat’s rehabilitation can proceed very far, not because of the accusations of terrorism, but because he is widely disavowed even by Palestinians as corrupt, authoritarian, and incompetent.

    At the same time, we should not become altogether cynical about efforts to impose limits on political behavior. It is generally true that the price of entry to the halls of diplomacy is a credible renunciation of violence against civilians, just as it is true that a violent challenge to the existing order will be denied such access if it can be defeated at an acceptable cost. This is how the IRA (Irish Revolutionary Army) finally achieved a measure of acceptance even from its bitter rivals in Northern Ireland, that is, both by avoiding defeat and then by expressing a willingness to reach a solution by peaceful means. It is also true that the UN and world public opinion have gradually, although inconsistently, relied on human rights standards and the practice of democracy, to make judgments for and against particular political outcomes. There are war crimes trials going on in The Hague and Arusha that are punishing certain types of behavior as international crimes, and in 2002 a permanent International Criminal Court was established by a widely ratified treaty. It remains true that the more powerful governments, including the United States and China, refuse to submit their actions to the Rule of Law, but it is also true that sovereignty no longer gives a blank check to political rulers.

    4. International law has been developing since the time of Grotius in the 17th century, and the International Court of Justice has declared on a number of occasions that diplomatic relations among sovereign states should be governed by adherence to international law. But how can international law be enforced in the absence of a world government? There has been a tendency in recent years to rely on sanctions as a means of international enforcement, but their record is not impressive. They do not seem to have achieved their goals, and may be based on dubious premises of punishing governments or leaders that are seen as threatening to the geopolitical status quo.

    There is no doubt that the absence of effective procedures for enforcement are a major obstacle to the achievement of a law-oriented world order. At the same time all political systems, including well-governed societies, struggle with enforcement. The United States, proud of its constitutional order, has a huge prison population, and has found it very difficult to achieve effective enforcement in some critical areas of behavior, including the use and distribution of hard drugs and the actions of some of its leading corporations (for example, the Enron scandal). And so the problems of enforcing international law is one of degree, not of kind.

    It is also important to recognize that many areas of international life are based on legal regimes that are consistently upheld and enforced. Tourism, diplomacy, and trade all proceed on this basis, and the world would be chaotic without this underpinning of international law for many of the daily interactions that take place throughout the world. The United States and Europe are presently resolving their disputes over genetically modified foods and steel subsidies by accepting the legal procedures of the World Trade Organization. Most enforcement difficulties arise either in relation to challenged uses of international force or attempted interferences with the internal affairs of sovereign states.

    Sanctions are sometimes seen a preferred alternative to war in the event that an international dispute cannot be resolved peacefully. Much attention has recently been given to the role of sanctions in relation to Iraq over the past decade or so. It is necessary to make some distinctions when evaluating sanctions as a means of enforcement. Sanctions were initially imposed on Iraq in 1990 after its conquest of Kuwait, and were seen as a way of inducing Saddam Hussein’s regime to withdraw from Kuwait without a war. Such an approach to enforcement had it succeeded would have been hailed as a political and moral victory. The failure of sanctions to achieve this goal in Iraq has been variously interpreted as indicating the irrational stubbornness of the Baghdad leadership or as a cover for an American-led insistence on “a preventive war” so as to eliminate Iraq as a regional threat for years to come. Diplomatic historians in future work will undoubtedly help us to resolve this issue of interpretation. The Gulf War in 1991 can be seen as “enforcement,” authorized by the Security Council, including all of its Permanent Members, and effectively restoring Kuwaiti sovereign rights.

    Sanctions were then applied to a defeated Iraq for the next twelve years, supposedly to coerce Baghdad to comply with the terms of a ceasefire in 1991 that had been embodied in Security Council Resolution 687. This reliance on sanctions was much more controversial than the pre-war sanctions. They were imposed on a devastated defeated country, which almost certainly meant that the Iraqi people would be particularly vicitimized. Iraq’s water purification system had been deliberately destroyed during the Gulf War, exposing the entire population to disease and death. Early respected studies by a Harvard medical team and by UNESCO reported on the resulting humanitarian catastrophe, producing hundreds of thousand of deaths among children in Iraq. At the same time, the political goals of the sanctions were not being achieved: Saddam Hussein’s regime was not weakened in relation to opposition groups and UN resolutions were not being respected. Sanctions increasingly became understood as aspects of a punitive peace imposed on Iraq after the Gulf War. As such, it seemed to be repeating the mistake after World War I when the Versailles Treaty imposed strong sanctions on a defeated Germany, contributing to a subsequent rise of German political extremism. Sanctions imposed on Iraq between 1991 and 2003 failed as “enforcement” and were widely condemned, despite UN backing, as tantamount to crimes against humanity because of their destructive impact on the civilian population of Iraq.

    Sanctions as a means of enforcement are neither good or bad, effective or futile. It all depends on context, and effects. To the extent that sanctions have the unified backing of the international community and avoid wars, their role is beneficial. Sanctions seemed to have played a constructive role in persuading the Afrikaaner leadership of South Africa to abandon apartheid, and work with Mandela to produce a peaceful transition to a multi-racial constitutional order.

    In the 1990s, and to some extent currently, “humanitarian intervention” became an enforcement tool of choice. The NATO Kosovo War can be understood in that light, as can interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. The present call for American intervention in Liberia, as well as the UN role in the Congo, proceed on such premises. Humanitarian intervention is generally viewed with suspicion as a tool available only on behalf of the strong to be used against the relatively weak. It is unavailable to help the Chechens in their struggle with the Russian government or to assist the Tibetans or Uighers in their resistance efforts with regard to the Chinese government.

    And so enforcement is, at best, uneven, and needs to take account of the realities of power. At the same time, efforts to hold leaders accountable for their crimes of state, patterns of humanitarian intervention, and some instances of UN peacekeeping suggest that there is a growing trend to take international standards more seriously and to disregard the barriers of sovereignty in efforts to produce compliance with such standards.

    5. You opposed the Iraq War of this spring by arguing that its justifications were based on grounds that were legally and constitutionally dubious. Would you discuss some of these grounds? Unlike Iraq, in the debate about the Afghanistan War you found yourself in disagreement with linguist Noam Chomsky and other American left peace activists, why was this?

    As I indicated when discussing the preemptive war doctrine, I remain convinced that there never existed an adequate legal basis for recourse to war against Iraq. The government of Iraq, weakened by sanctions and by the UN inspection process, posed no threat except to its own people. The UNSC alone possesses the legal authority to mandate a war in circumstances other than self-defense. The idea of liberating the Iraqi people from the brutal dictatorship of Saddam Hussein does not provide a legal foundation for war without UN authorization, and this rationale has only been put forth as a sufficient justification for war after the fact and as a result of a failure to produce evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction that had previously been the overriding justification given by Washington for the war. The difficulties that the occupation forces have been experiencing in Iraq and the opposition to a long-term American presence is likely to compound these problems, inducing either a prolonged occupation and a rising tide of violent resistance or a forced withdrawal that leads either to a sense of political defeat by bringing to power anti-Western undemocratic forces or produces a civil war among the divergent political, religious, and ethnic constituencies in the country. In essence, the Iraq War cannot be reconciled with the core rules of international law governing the use of force to resolve conflicts between sovereign states.

    From the point of view of American constitutional law, the war was also dubious. True, a bipartisan majority in Congress authorized the war by resolution, but one passed months before the start of the war, and before indications of opposition at the UN, on the part of many of America’s closest allies around the world, at a grassroots level, and even in the United States. The quality of the Congressional authorization was thus weakened by its failure to show “a decent respect” for the opinion of others. Beyond this, Congress lacks the authority to mandate an illegal war. The Constitution in Article VI makes validly ratified international treaties “the supreme law of the land.” The UN Charter is such a treaty. Recourse to war was a violation of the Charter, and hence a violation of the Constitution.

    On Afghanistan I differed with Chomsky and others who opposed the war, and insisted that a reliance on criminal law enforcement was adequate to address the terrorist menace. I did not then believe that any government could withstand the al Qaeda attacks without making a maximal response on behalf of its national security. Relying on law enforcement was not such a response, and indeed had proved an utter failure in the past as a way of dealing with large-scale terrorist activity, including earlier al Qaeda strikes. I felt that given the severity of the harm inflicted on September 11 and the continuing al Qaeda presence in Afghanistan, a defensive necessity existed, and that the Charter could be properly interpreted to validate recourse to war by the United States. The international community agreed. The opposition to the war never provided a convincing account of how to uphold American security in view of the threats posed by al Qaeda. At the same time, in retrospect, it must be acknowledged that America did not use the occasion of the Afghanistan War to minimize the continuing risks posed by al Qaeda. It allowed leaders and cadre to go free and fight on another day because of its unwillingness to put enough Americans on the ground to close off escape routes. It has failed to invest resources and energies in post-war Afghanistan to avoid its territory from again becoming a potential haven for transnational terrorist activity.

    6. In light of the Iraq War and prior sanctions policy has the UN been undermined in relation to its role as an institution committed to war prevention and the development of international law?

    To some extent earlier responses dealing with the Iraq War and the enforcement of international law have covered the issues raised by this question. I will limit my response here to generalities about the future of the United Nations.
    First of all, attitudes toward the UN move quickly from hope to despair, and back again. If the US/UK occupation of Iraq is superseded by comprehensive international administration of the country under UN auspices, the UN will be upgraded as a dimension of world order. Similarly, if the UN plays an increasing role in dealing with African turbulence, then the importance of the UN will be acknowledged anew, especially if its missions are generally seen as helpful.

    Contrariwise if the United States engages in subsequent unilateral non-defensive wars against Syria or Iran, or even North Korea, then the UN is likely to decline still further with respect to the maintenance of global peace and security.

    The United Nations, is neither more nor less, than what its principal members want it be. The Organization when established in 1945 was intended to be an instrument of statecraft, not a supranational alternative to it. This was underscored by giving the lead victorious powers in World War II a veto in the Security Council, which meant that the organization acknowledged from the outset that it would be unable to act if opposed by its most powerful member states, and that world peace rested not on law or collective security under the UN, but on the ability of the Permanent Members to agree on the nature of world order challenges, and to act accordingly.

    The United States is where the UN headquarters are located, as well as being the leading financial contributor and the host country, and as a result plays a decisive role in either facilitating a strong organization or shaping global policy beyond the reach of the UN. So far, during the Bush presidency, the UN has not been entrusted with a major responsibilities, and the White House signature attitude of unilateralism has been partly expressed by acting outside the organization whenever it feels like doing so. At the same time, the magnetic pull exerted by the UN has brought President Bush to the organization on several key occasions to seek legitimizing support at crucial moments in American foreign policy. This occurred immediately following the September 11 attacks and again in the lead up to the Iraq War.

    The world needs a strong and confident United Nations to cope with the various manifestations of globalization. If the US fails to encourage such an evolution, then other member countries should feel challenged to do so.

    The UN arose out of the ashes of World War II, just as the League of Nations had arisen after World War I. Both organizations reflected the idea of “one-worlders,” a unified arrangement for global governance. Today such ideas are discussed as “globalization.” But why “predatory globalization”? Are there not positive aspects of globalization?

    Yes, it is true that both world wars gave the impetus for the establishment of global organizations supposedly dedicated to war prevention. Both arose from the basic horror of devastating wars leaving tens of millions dead in their aftermath, and the conviction that states left on their own would plunge the world into yet another war of major proportions. At the same time, ideas of sovereignty and nationalism remained too strong to empower either the League or the UN with the capabilities it would need to uphold the security of states confronted by aggressive adversaries. The UN recognized this unwillingness to overcome the centrality of sovereign states by giving the leading members a veto power assuring that the UN would never be used against the most powerful states, but it is precisely these states that are likely to enter into a rivalry that produces a third world war. In this sense, the promise of world peace by relying on the League or UN was an empty promise from the start. At the same time the UN has done many useful things, has become so indispensable that no state remains by choice a non-member with the special exception of Switzerland, emphasizes the role of international law in relation to world peace, and continues to offer the peoples of the world a beacon of hope for the future.

    But these preliminary and very limited experiments with global governance should not be confused with has since the end of the cold war been called “globalization.” Although the term is ambiguous, it has been most widely understood as the process by which time and space have been compressed with respect to the operation of the world economy. Globalization incorporates the rise of market forces as sources of policy guidance, as well as the significance of computers and the Internet for more networked forms of economic organization on a global scale. I have referred to this capital-driven orientation of globalization as “predatory globalization” to highlight its negative aspects: widening disparities between rich and poor, disappointing efforts to reduce world poverty, neglect of regions that seem unpromising from the perspective of trade and investment such as Africa, a failure to protect global public goods such as environmental quality and pollution prevention in the oceans. At the same time, I have argued that these predatory effects are not intrinsic to globalization, but are a byproduct of the neo-liberal ideas of unregulated markets and the reliance on capital efficiency to solve social problems, that is, of an ideology of economic development that became a consensus position after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and was reflected in the approaches to development favored by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Globalization has made important positive contributions, including giving some Asian countries excellent opportunities for rapid economic growth that has benefited a large number of people in some of the poorest countries.

    The future and ideology of globalization is now in doubt. The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 shook the confidence of those who were managing the world economy as did the rise of the anti-globalization movement that entered world consciousness in late 1999 with street demonstrations in Seattle protesting IMF ministerial meetings. Then came September 11, and a renewed preoccupation with war/peace issues and global security. Whether these concerns will subside in the years ahead is not clear, and so it is not certain that globalization will seem as descriptive of the world setting as it seemed to be in the 1990s.

    7. When you write about the Middle East sometimes Turkey is included, sometimes not. Is the Middle East best understood geographically or in some other way? How do you explain your inconsistent approach to Turkey’s place in the region?

    The contours of a region are always arbitrary, and can be understood inconsistently depending on the purpose of classification. Looking at a map suggests an uncertainty as to whether to conceive of Turkey as belonging to the Middle East or to Europe. Sometimes, the Middle East is regarded as essentially “the Arab world,” but more often it is regarded as also including Israel, Turkey, Iran. The idea of multiple identities has informed recent discussions of changing patterns of individual citizenship. Why not for countries, as well? Potential membership in the European Union would certainly qualify Turkey as “European,” but it is difficult to conceive of the future of “the Middle East” without taking account of Turkey’s role as a presence in relation to regional security, the status of secularism and democracy, and the overall interplay between Israel and the rest of the region. Turkey’s Islamic identity and rich cultural and political traditions, including its Ottoman past, ensure the prominence of its role in the Middle East for as far ahead as we can see.

    But let’s not forget that the term “Middle East” is itself a geopolitical curiosity reflecting a Eurocentric image of the world. In India the region is generally depicted as “West Asia.” Perhaps, it is notable that of all the regions in the world it is only this one that bears such a signature of the colonial era, and most endures the torments of unresolved struggles of decolonization, whether in relation to Palestinian self-determination or with respect to the overt military presence of the dominant hegemonic power in the world. The Middle East has replaced Europe as the fulcrum of geopolitics, the zone wherein the shape and form of world order is being forged.

    8. Should Turkey have become involved in the Iraq War in the ways that the US Government requested? Now Turkey is considering sending troops to Iraq as part of the post-war effort to bring stability to that country. Do you think this is a wise move on Turkey’s part to get so involved?

    First of all, I believe it is premature to speak of the situation in Iraq as “post-war.” The steady stream of American and Iraqi casualties on a daily basis suggest to me that the Iraq War continues, and that only its conventional battlefield phase is over. Even the American military commander in Iraq has recently referred to the present situation as best understood as a classic instance of “guerrilla warfare.”

    Looking back, I think Turkey made the right decision by denying the use of its territory to mount an invasion of northern Iraq by American ground forces. The Iraq War, as suggested above, was a non-defensive war lacking UN approval, and in violation of international law. It seemed to many, as well, to be an imprudent war that was not helpful in dealing with the genuine persisting threats associated with the al Qaeda network. In such circumstances, especially given the anti-war sentiments of the Turkish people, the Turkish Parliament is to be congratulated for reaching a decision that upheld Turkish national interests, demonstrated its political independence, and was consistent with the promotion of world public order.

    Looking forward, I would think Turkey should not expose itself to the uncertainties of developments in Iraq, or needlessly put itself on the side of what appears to be an increasingly unpopular American/British occupation that could go on for years. It is important for Turkey to maintain positive relations with the United States, but on the basis of mutual respect. It is not in Turkey’s interest to become engaged directly in the peacekeeping operations going on in Iraq, at least not at this stage. By staying on the sidelines, Turkey will improve the prospects of entering into a positive relationship with an independent and reconstructed post-occupation Iraq, which in the long run is likely to contribute most to the stability of the region.

    9. How do you perceive the Kurdish-Turkish debate within the wider context of the Middle East?

    Aside from the Palestine-Israel conflict, the unresolved future of Kurdish-Turkish relations is the greatest single challenge to the political leadership of Turkey, and to the society as a whole. It is a matter of supreme importance to avoid any serious renewal of the sort of armed encounter that existed in prior years. A humane approach to Kurdish aspirations will also help decisively in advancing the case for Turkey’s membership in the EU. But what exactly does a humane approach entail?

    This is, of course, an ultra-sensitive matter of internal Turkish politics. As an outsider I am hesitant to comment on this most delicate question beyond offering the most superficial idea that the cultural rights of the large Kurdish minority needs to be fully acknowledged, and that to the extent that Kurdish areas seem poorer than the rest of the country, a major priority should be accorded by Ankara to the economic development of Kurdish regions (primarily Eastern Anatolia) and the rapid reduction of Kurdish poverty. It should be also recognized that there are significant numbers of impoverished Turkish and non-Turkish individuals living in Eastern Anatolia who would also benefit from the recommended approach. The problem of minority rights cuts in many different directions, and the Turkish government has shown its own concerns about the treatment of the Turkish minority in Bulgaria, as well as the somewhat problematic future for the large Turkamen minority in northern Iraq.

    I find generally encouraging the degree to which there is a growing intellectual and political interest throughout Turkey in undertaking a positive reevaluation of the Ottoman legacy and heritage. In relation to the Kurdish challenge, this means a shift from a rigid modernist view of Turkish national identity to pride and tolerance in the multi-ethnic makeup of the Turkish nation. Just as Kemal Ataturk in a different historical moment freed Turkish destiny from negative aspects of the Ottoman past, the challenge of the present generation of Turkish leaders is to recover its positive aspects, allowing Turkey to benefit more fully from its incredibly rich cultural, spiritual, and political traditions.

    10. Turkey has come under a lot of fire over the years because of its treatment of minorities. The Turkish government is now enacting harmonization legislation as part of its larger effort to qualify for full membership in the European Union. This new legislation is likely to have a major impact on how Turkey deals with its minorities. Would you give your opinion on these developments?

    My response to the prior question relating to the Kurdish issue also applies to this question. The pressures associated with preparing Turkey for the EU are complementary to recovering the multi-ethnic spirit of diversity associated with the Ottoman past. By emphasizing minority rights, a secular path to tolerance and group rights is cleared for a less rigid conception of national identity than has prevailed during Turkey’s 20th century nation- and state-building phases.

    Minority rights and humane treatment of minorities is one element in the wider setting of human rights, which itself needs to be understood as fulfilling for all citizens the promise of constitutional democracy. All countries, including my own, need to be constantly vigilant with respect to the protection of human rights, particularly when the state claims a strong security interest. In the United States since September 11, the treatment of Muslim males, especially of Arab origins, has been a matter of growing concern from a human rights perspective. One instructive way to assess the commitment of a country and its leadership is to examine carefully the way it treats its most vulnerable members, which in the case of both Turkey and the United States, means how it deals with minorities, addressing their fears and hopes and overcoming their insecurities.

    11. Recently there have been debates about the influence that television has had over the way stories are handled in the print media. And during the Iraq War we have seen journalists “embedded,” or as some would say “in bed with” troops on the move in a combat zone. The war was televised in an unprecedented real time way. Was this a positive development? Did it discourage or encourage a war mentality back home in the United States? What do you think about the media?

    Overall, I think the American mainstream media has had the effect during the Iraq War of bringing Americans closer to the war, and allowing the citizens back home to share in the victorious march through Iraq on the way to Baghdad. Of course, if Iraqi resistance had been stiffer, and bloody battles taken place that produced heavy American casualties, reactions might have been very different. It is worth remembering that many supporters of the Vietnam War in the US blamed the media for bringing the war into “the living rooms” of Middle America, and thereby stimulating a robust anti-war movement that led to an American defeat. The Iraq War was special, at least in its battlefield phase, as it was quick and successful, and produced very few body bags. In the Vietnam case it was the media and the body bags that eventually turned the country against the war that had dragged on and on.

    Learning from Vietnam, the Pentagon did its best to keep the media from covering the Gulf War in 1991 too closely. This adjustment produced its own line of criticism, turning the war into an arcade video game by its emphasis on the bombing raids directed at Baghdad. In the Iraq War, probably anticipating an easy victory, a different and novel approach was adopted, that of “embedding.” From a pacifist perspective the practice was unfortunate, making the war into a kind of soap opera, with each evening bringing a new installment, engaging the citizenry in the excitement and tensions of the battlefield. Again, this could have backfired had the American military efforts been successfully resisted; bloody battlefield scenes could easily have produced a strong anti-war climate of opinion.

    Evaluating the media approaches, requires an understanding of the political context. In this regard, it needs to be related to the media, especially TV, approach to the American response to the September 11 attacks. TV has helped sustained a patriotic climate of opinion in America that tends to avoid criticism of the government and its leadership. In the months preceding the Iraq War critics of the Bush Administration were not invited to give their views on TV, conveying the false impression to the public that there was no serious disagreement in the society. And yet throughout the country there was considerable opposition to waging a war against Iraq for the purpose of regime change. In other words, TV, and to a lesser extent, the print media, did not reflect the divided sentiments of the country, especially on the crucial issues of war and peace. Night after night retired military officers appeared on network TV to give their views as to why the war was necessary and how it would be fought and won. In this sense, embedding of journalists in combat units was a continuation of this partisan TV role, not an objective source of evaluation, but essentially part of the cheerleading chorus.

    The media plays an essential role in shaping the democratic spirit. It needs to distance itself from official views of the government, particularly at times of controversy. America, as the most powerful state in the world, especially needs public debate on critical policy issues, both for its own sake and in relation to its role as global leader.

    12. Your analyses of world issues are cogent and carefully thought out. But do you ever proceed from analysis and criticism to propose possible solutions to these world order challenges?

    Much of my academic work has been devoted to depicting positive solutions for immediate problems and for longer term responses. For instance, I have long advocated a solution for the Palestine/Israel conflict by the application of international law principles to the respective rights of both peoples rather than rely on a geopolitical bargaining process between the grossly unequal sides mediated by the United States, no innocent bystander. A geopolitical roadmap will not lead to a just and stable solution, and represents a diversion from the search for a genuine peace, although it may function as a temporary truce. An international law roadmap, in contrast, would produce a two-state solution based on mutual recognition and equal sovereign rights, which would mean a shared Jerusalem, the elimination of the Israeli settlements, and some measured right of return for Palestinian refugees.

    On a different plane, I have written consistently, including on several occasions in the International Herald Tribune, on the case for a Global Peoples Parliament as an essential step in the establishment of a global democracy. Such a step would acknowledge the increasing activism of transnational civil society, and help give the peoples an arena to express their concerns alongside the existing organs of the United Nations that allow governments to represent the membership consisting only of states.

    On a still different plane, I have worked for many years within the framework of the World Order Models Project, a transnational group of scholars that has tried to promote global reforms, and has worked together since the late 1960s. The basic perspective has been a realization that different regions have different priorities and approaches in relation to global reform, but that there is a shared commitment to achieving global governance in forms that diminishes the role of war, promotes the economic well being of all persons, supports human rights and democracy, favors global extensions of democracy, is committed to environmental protection and ecological stability, and accepts human nature as essentially spiritual.

    13. What topics are you working on now?

    I am currently working on several projects with the goal of producing three books. The first is concerned with the American global role since September 11, emphasizing the importance of avoiding the temptation on the part of Washington to establish the first global empire. The struggle between the United States and al Qaeda represents the first post-modern war, as my earlier book The Great Terror War argues, being waged between two non-territorial adversaries: a global state that overrides the sovereign rights of other states and a concealed transnational network that relies on extreme political violence directed against civilians. In contrast, modern warfare involved conflicts between territorial sovereign states. The new book will argue that it is important, in my view, that the United States not pursue an imperial approach to global security, but rely on international cooperation and a show of respect for international law and the procedures of the United Nations, and work toward a system of democratically organized global governance, a constructive globalization.

    My second project is to deal with the complicated and confused American relationship to international law, at once its principal champion and also currently its main detractor. To some extent, this is not a new problem, but goes back at least as far as Woodrow Wilson’s vision of collective security under the authority of the League of Nations. Wilson sold his vision to the world but not to the US Senate that refused to ratify the Versailles Treaty setting up the League, and the US never became a member. The story is somewhat more complicated in relation to the United Nations, but essentially the same. The United States has played the dominant role in shaping the organization, but it has also tried to manipulate and control its operations, and when it has been frustrated, it has acted alone in defiance of UN authority. The Iraq War is perhaps the most flagrant example, but it is only one of many.

    My third project is more personal and may never see the light of day. It is to do a political memoir that tries to combine narratives of my outer journeys with an overview of my inner travels, combining the political with the personal.

    14. If you would like to add anything, please feel free to do so.

    I would only say that I feel privileged to have spent so much time in Turkey over the course of the last decade under the guidance of my Turkish wife. It is such a vibrant country, exhibiting great cultural depth and such warm hospitality, and its promise connects so profoundly with the present historical moment. I see Turkey as having the opportunity to create for the region and for the Islamic world a new political model of reconciliation between the enlightened secularism of the modern state and the religious values and cultural attitudes of traditional societies. Such an evolution presents a formidable challenge that can only be met by drawing on the resources of Turkey’s Ottoman past while sustaining and carrying forward the modernizing ideas of the Kemal Ataturk. In doing so, Turkey would be carrying out a creative experiment in combining its identity as a European and Middle Eastern country, as well as having the benefit of participating in regional arrangements while retaining its separate identity as nation and state. Such an inspirational possibility can only be achieved, however, if the unresolved problems of minority relations are dealt with by Turkey in a manner that satisfies human rights commitments.

  • Emergency Medicine After a Nuclear 911

    I have been asked to comment on the medical response to ³The Day After the Day After,² that is, a deliberate terrorist attack against the U.S. population and/or infrastructure by terrorists utilizing nuclear materials. A few caveats are in order. First, my predictions of damage and plausible medical response are estimates, featuring a range of possible consequences. However, I feel that these are realistic estimates, based on data from atomic weapons tests, the U.S. attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, nuclear power plant accidents, and responses to other non-nuclear mass casualty incidents. I have a bibliography of sources for my talk available to anyone who is interested. Second, my remarks will not include evaluation of probable environmental, political, economic, or psychological effects, all of which certainly will impact any emergency medical response. Those effects will be covered by other speakers. It is important to understand that all those various effects would be additive in completely unpredictable ways. Thirdly, my remarks will be addressed to the scenario of a single attack, or at most a few simultaneous attacks; in other words, not relevant to a nation-vs.-nation exchange of nuclear weapons, which is an almost unimaginable catastrophe threatening the existence of all life on the planet. Finally, there are differing potential modalities of terrorist nuclear attack against the U.S., including:

    – Attack on the transport by truck or train of nuclear waste , to steal the nuclear material for further use;

    – Detonation of a so-called ³dirty² bomb, which is a conventional explosive deliberately contaminated with radioactive material to cause dispersal of that radioactivity;

    – Physical takeover of a nuclear power plant by intruders, with subsequent intentional interference with plant operation leading to a ³meltdown² of the core and release of radioactivity;

    – Detonation of a conventional weapon, delivered by motor vehicle, boat, or airplane, at a nuclear power plant;

    – Explosion of a thermonuclear bomb.

    Because of time constraints and the particular focus of this conference, Iwill limit my remarks about medical response to the latter two scenarios: that is, conventional weapon explosion at a nuclear power plant, and, principally, explosion of a terrorist nuclear bomb.

    In order usefully to understand possible emergency medical response to those scenarios, it is necessary to review what comprises emergency medicine at this time in the U.S. Our medical system is one of the most technologically advanced in the world. A corollary is that U.S. emergency medicine depends on a technological infrastructure, which distinguishes it from Third World medicine, featuring simple intravenous fluid therapy, pills, and few facilities with often limited accessibility and affordability, and from rudimentary ³medicine,² or basic first aid. Although our own medical and public health systems are currently tenuous and in increasing jeopardy, nonetheless they still feature and will continue to feature the following: – Hospitals in communities of all sizes, with designated Emergency Rooms ;

    – Trained specialists, including Emergency Physicians, Registered Nurses, laboratory technicians, radiology technicians, and the clerks, housekeeping staff, and other ancillary personnel without which they could not operate;

    – An infrastructure consisting of electric power, clean and abundant water, and communications including telephone and radio; – Adequate equipment and supplies, replenishable through our transportation system of roads, vehicles, airports, and planes;

    – First responders, that is, Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics with ambulances, fire departments with trained personnel, and police departments;

    – Coordinating Emergency Medical Systems in every community, responsible for maintaining readiness and reacting to disasters. Without all those and more, we would have no functioning emergency medicine.

    SCENARIO #1: Attack on a nuclear power plant

    Nuclear power plants are repositories of huge quantities of radioactive material. The spent fuel ponds, where used fuel rods are stored, hold 5 to 10 times the long-lived radioactivity in the core, where energy is produced and harnessed. A single spent fuel pond in a typical reactor holds 20 to 50 million curies of radioactivity, represented by various radioactive substances, most prominently radioactive iodine, with a relatively short half-life, and radioactive cesium, with a half-life of about 30 years. A single spent fuel pond holds more Ce-137 than was released into the atmosphere by all atmospheric nuclear tests in the Northern

    Hemisphere during more than 3 decades of nuclear testing. A conventional explosion at a spent fuel pond could easily dissipate the cooling water of the pond, exposing the zirconium lining of the fuel rods to air and leading to immediate ignition. Such a fire is inextinguishable and will burn for days to years. During the conflagration essentially 100% of the Ce-137 and most of the other radioactive material will be released into the air. Its distribution will depend on weather and wind conditions. Only two means of medical protection are available: shelter, which will be required for all those downwind of the release for a minimum of 2 days, up to 7 to 10 days; and ingestion of potassium iodide orally, in pill or liquid form, which will prevent the thyroid gland from absorbing radioactive iodine in the air. Potassium iodide must be take before or within 4 hours of exposure to be effective. The U.S. government has offered potassium iodide to all residents within 10 miles of a nuclear power plant. There is no similar substance to protect against exposure to Ce-137 or the many other radioactive substances released. When to allow people outdoors again will depend on measurements of when the radioactive plume has passed and how much ambient radiation remains in the area.

    Those at the plant who survive with blast injuries may be treated as are victims of any explosion. However, treating personnel and facilities will need protection from contamination carried by those victims. At any rate, those victims will have been exposed to such high radiation doses that death within a few days is inevitable. Others, not injured by blast, who have been exposed to more than 30 Gy (3000 rads) of radiation will suffer effects on the cardiovascular and central nervous systems, and develop almost immediate nausea, vomiting, and headache, followed by seizures, shock, and death. There is no effective treatment. Those exposed to 10 to 30 Gy will suffer damage of the digestive system, characterized by nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea; after an apparent brief recovery of a few days, symptoms will recur and they will die. There is no effective treatment. Those exposed to 2 to 20 Gy will suffer destruction of their bone marrow. After their vomiting and diarrhea subside, in a few weeks they will die from infection or hemorrhage unless they receive a bone marrow transplant. Bone marrow transplantation is a complex and expensive medical treatment requiring prolonged hospitalization and intensive care. Only a few medical centers in each state provide such treatment. If the power plant attacked is in a rural area, probably hundreds of victims will need such treatment, taxing the resources of the entire U.S. medical system. If the power plant attacked is in an urban area, the thousands of survivors with bone marrow destruction will have no treatment available to them and will die miserable deaths.

    There is no practical way medically to distinguish those victims with severe radiation injury from those without, because there is no practical way to measure absorbed radiation dose. Thus it will be impossible for medical practitioners and facilities to discriminate between those presenting with headache, vomiting, and diarrhea who will die despite any medical intervention, those with similar symptoms who will recover spon- taneously (but will be susceptible to cancer years later), and those who are suffering the identical symptoms from the non-organic causes of stress, fear, and, yes, terror. In sum, an attack on a nuclear power plant with release of radiation will potentially cause many immediate and short-term deaths and serious injuries, untold long-term cancers, and extreme demands on emergency medical facilities in the involved state and surrounding states.

    SCENARIO #2: A terrorist nuclear bomb

    Now for the bad news. The above scenario is trivial in comparison with the probable effect of detonation of a nuclear bomb. The atomic bomb which devastated Hiroshima is estimated to have had the power of 12.5 to 15 kilotons of TNT; Nagasaki¹s, 15 to 20 Kt.

    The largest thermonuclear (hydrogen) bomb exploded had a yield of about 50 megatons; the U.S., Russia, and the other nuclear powers have bombs ranging from less than 1 Kt to many Mts. Given the practical constraints of acquisition and production, it is estimated that terrorists could acquire or produce a bomb with a yield between 0.1 and 20 Kt. For our discussion I will postulate a weapon of 10 Kt. Such a bomb could weigh between 40 and 100 lbs., and be dropped from a plane or brought into a city by suitcase, car, or shipping crate. The most likely terrorist target would be a large city; for example, Los Angeles. Atomic bombs destroy by several effects: Blast, usually comprising the release of about 50% of the bomb¹s energy; Thermal radiation, both heat and light, comprising about 35% of the bomb¹s energy; Radiation, about 15%, involving both short-term and long-term damage, as we have already seen in discussing the first scenario; Electromagnetic pulse. Bombs with more than 10 Kt of yield have a larger range of blast and burn than radiation effects. Damage to people and objects from an atomic bomb depends on the size of the explosion and distance from ground zero. It is virtually impossible to determine whether victims succumb to blast, burn, or radiation effects, since most victims suffer from all…and many are simply vaporized. Effects also depend on whether the bomb is detonated at ground level, which spews enormous amounts of soil into the air and increases radioactive fallout, or in the air, which increases the effect of blast and heat.

    The major effects of an atomic bomb: BLAST: A 10 Kt bomb will create a crate between 1/4 and 1/2 mile wide and several hundred feet deep. Wind velocity will be between 250 and 500 mph at the hypocenter, and over 60 mph even 2 miles away.Most blast deaths and injuries result from the collapse of buildings, from people being blown into objects at high speed, and from objects being blown into people. Unreinforced buildings several miles away may be destroyed or seriously damaged. The blast will be so loud and intense and the pressures so great that people will suffer ruptured eardrums with consequent deafness, and ruptured lungs, many miles away. HEAT: The temperature at the center of the blast will be approximately 1 million degrees C, approximately that of the sun; even if the explosion is in the air, ground temperature beneath it will be about 7000 degrees C. People 2.5 miles or more away from the epicenter will suffer horrendous burns; wood will be charred black 2 miles away. The heat will be sufficient to evaporate metal, melt glass, and ignite clothing miles away from the epicenter. At Hiroshima 8 sq. mi. of area was reduced to ashes by a resulting firestorm. LIGHT: The intensity of emitted light will be so great that people and animals will suffer retinal burns up to 20 to 25 miles away, with at least temporary blindness for hours to days, and possible permanent blindness. RADIATION: Short-term and long-term effects will depend on the composition of the bomb and the weather, as mentioned in Scenario #1.

    ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE: This phenomenon will incapacitate radio, television, cellular telephone, and cable transmissions for undetermined distances, making communication in the entire region and possible entire state unavailable, as well as permanently disabling appliances.

    The Hiroshima bomb killed approximate 115,000 people immediately or within a few days of its detonation. Tens of thousands more were injured, a great many seriously. Among initial survivors of a terrorist blast would be tens of thousands with extensive third-degree burns. In all of the L.A. metropolitan area there are 82 hospital burn beds; in all of California, 203; in the entire U.S., about 5,000. Tens of thousands of survivors would suffer crushing injuries, fractures, penetrating lacerations with heavy bleeding, and acute radiation injury.

    There are about 90 acute care hospitals in Los Angeles County. Many would be destroyed or rendered non-functional by the blast. Hospitals and doctors offices tend to be located centrally in urban areas, so doctors would be killed or seriously injured at rates greater than those of the general population. There will be no help available from outside the devastated area, not only because of fearfully high levels of radiation, and firestorms, but also because there will be no electricity, communication, shelter, or intact bridges or roads. Badly injured victims will probably die in agony, without even the possibility of receiving relief from pain. Those so-called survivors will probably envy the dead. Apparently uninjured survivors miles from the explosion, including police, government officials, fire personnel, gas station attendants, store owners, bank and hospital employees — almost everyone — will be thinking first of themselves and their loved ones, how they can survive, and where they can flee to. Roads out of the city will be jammed. Communities throughout the region, such as Santa Barbara, will be inundated with those in panicked flight, and hospitals in those regions will be deluged with people who are either injured or think that they are. The medical system in general, and emergency medicine in particular, will be completely incapable of responding in any effective or meaningful way to a terrorist nuclear bomb explosion. Medical preparation for such an event may make us feel better, but only if we delude ourselves. The only plausible strategy of preparation is the utmost effort at prevention.
    *Dr. Steve Daniels is an emergency room physician in Santa Barbara, chairman of the Santa Barbara chapter of the Physicians for Social Responsibility, and a speaker in the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation’s Speakers Bureau.

  • On the Brink of a Nuclear Arms Race

    Mohamed ElBaradei, Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), believes the world is on the brink of a new nuclear arms race. North Korea could start nuclear tests any time. Iran is also due to build its own bomb shortly. And the United States, for fear of terrorism, is eagerly playing with fire, too.

    [Stern] Mr. ElBaradei, talks have started in Beijing with North Korea on the country’s nuclear weapons program. Russia is already setting up refugee camps should war break out on the Siberian border. Are we on the brink of a nuclear war?

    [ElBaradei] North Korea is currently representing the biggest threat. Nearly everything that is evil seems to come together in North Korea: the country is in the middle of deep economic crisis. People are starving. The US Army is, so to speak, standing next door, in South Korea. North Korea wants to survive. To this end, it needs security guarantees and economic aid.

    [Stern] And in order to get this aid, Kim Jong-Il is playing around with the nuclear bomb?

    [ElBaradei] I think someone like him is terribly afraid of a regime change . . . [ellipses as published throughout]

    [Stern] . . . as we have just seen in Iraq . . .

    [ElBaradei] He is now trying to get the most out of the situation for himself. This nuclear blackmail demonstrates a very alarming development: war was waged on Iraq because of assumed weapons of mass destruction. But there are talks under way with North Korea, on its nuclear program. This is nothing but a call for emulation.

    [Stern] Does North Korea have the nuclear bomb?

    [ElBaradei] We do not know for sure. But it is not important either. We know that the country has weapons-grade plutonium. This can be used to produce nuclear bombs, within just a few months. And it has the missiles for them.

    [Stern] This sounds as if the threat was rather acute.

    [ElBaradei] The world has become more dangerous. Today, we feel much more insecure than during the times of the Cold War. Many states feel threatened — above all, in regions of conflict such as Southeast Asia or the Middle East. We have to assume that Israel has the bomb, as a result of which other countries in the region feel defenseless.

    [Stern] How great is the risk that weapons of mass destruction are disseminated over the whole world?

    [ElBaradei] In the past, nuclear weapons were seen as a deterrent, they were the final step . . .

    [Stern] . . . that guaranteed mutual destruction.

    [ElBaradei] Yes. Today, there are serious discussions about the actual use of nuclear weapons. In the past 10 years, at least two new nuclear powers have emerged: India and Pakistan, two countries that are bitter enemies. Today, nuclear weapons are more in demand than ever. Dictators also want to survive.

    [Stern] Is this also true for the regime of the mullahs in Iran?

    [ElBaradei] For years, UN inspectors have been checking facilities there. Nevertheless, nearly a year ago a secret nuclear facility was discovered in the town of Natanz — of which the inspectors knew nothing.

    [Stern] Is Iran working on nuclear weapons?

    [ElBaradei] This is what we are trying to verify at the moment.

    [Stern] The facility in the desert near Natanz has been used to enrich uranium. Why was its construction kept secret if it was officially a civilian plant?

    [ElBaradei] Natanz is indeed the critical point of our inspections. Here it is possible to produce weapons-grade material. We have taken samples and found traces of highly enriched uranium on centrifuges. . .

    [Stern] . . . which is, in addition to plutonium, the basic material for a nuclear bomb.

    [ElBaradei] This worries us greatly. Should it turn out that Iran is not using its nuclear program for peaceful purposes, this could have disastrous consequences.

    [Stern] What are your Iranian partners telling you?

    [ElBaradei] They say these are gas-powered ultracentrifuges that were already polluted when delivered.

    [Stern] From where does the equipment originate?

    [ElBaradei] We are unable to say at this point.

    [Stern] Pakistan is regarded as one of the main suppliers in the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

    [ElBaradei] We cannot rule that out. Iran must disclose everything and cooperate with us.

    [Stern] Are we seeing the beginning of a new nuclear arms race?

    [ElBaradei] The technology has long since been in place. Countries are trading their knowledge and corresponding commodities on the black market. Export controls are not particularly effective. Above all, however, nuclear weapons have become thoroughly attractive, because it suddenly appears that it will be possible to actually use them. We must reconsider our entire policy of banning the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

    [Stern] A total of 188 states have committed to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

    [ElBaradei] Nuclear weapons give you power. Those who have them assume to have more security. They look more and more legitimate. They are no longer outlawed.

    [Stern] A few months ago, the US Senate resolved to finance research into so-called mini-nukes.

    [ElBaradei] These are double standards. On the one hand, the United States says that the proliferation of nuclear weapons must be fought. On the other, it perfects its own arsenal. This is not acceptable. Under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty all states are committed to nuclear disarmament, including the United States. What is happening at the moment is the complete opposite. The US Administration demands from other states not to have any nuclear weapons, while it fills its own arsenals. Then, a few privileged ones will be covered by a nuclear umbrella — and the rest of the world is left to its own devices. In reality, however, there are no good or evil weapons of mass destruction. If we do not give up such double standards, we will have even more nuclear powers. We are at a turning point now.

    [Stern] Is the United States, with its new armaments program, violating the treaty on the adherence of which it insists when others are concerned?

    [ElBaradei] It is still just research. But this is bad enough. I think this is not in line with the treaty the United States has signed.

    [Stern] Does it mean that the United States is actually fuelling the nuclear arms race in this way?

    [ElBaradei] The five nuclear powers must send a clear message to the world: we, too, disarm. We do not develop new nuclear weapons. Either we take the risk emanating from proliferation seriously or we have to live with the consequences. So far, we rather act like firemen: Iraq today, North Korea tomorrow, and Iran the day after. And then?

    [Stern] But the United States believes that the nuclear threat effectively helps to protect itself against terrorists — rather than by agreements no one keeps.

    [ElBaradei] The agreements have always had just half-hearted support. In addition, there are a whole lot of other and very effective weapons. It is an illusion to believe that terror can be fought with military means alone. Its reasons are poverty, social injustice, and the suppression of human rights in brutal dictatorships. Dictatorships that acquire weapons of mass destruction.

    [Stern] This is your vision. How do you want to avert the dangers existing today?

    [ElBaradei] We need more rights for UN inspectors.. They must get access to all facilities, unannounced and unhindered. Do you know how many states signed the relevant protocol? Just 35 of 188.

    [Stern] Assuming all had signed?

    [ElBaradei] States should undertake to put their uranium enrichment facilities under international control. This is the key technology on the way to nuclear weapons. Sanctions only protract things, they do not prevent the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction. And we finally need strict export controls.

    [Stern] How quickly are terrorists able to produce a “dirty bomb”?

    [ElBaradei] This is not particularly difficult. All you need is TNT and a radioactive material. There are a great number of radioactive sources in the world that are insufficiently secured. Dirty bombs are no weapons of mass destruction. They are weapons of mass terror.

    [Stern] Who is to assume responsibility in the struggle against nuclear terrorism?

    [ElBaradei] This, too, will be possible only with the help of the United Nations. But the power of the world community is limited today. The UN Security Council must not remain a nuclear power club. It must be extended to include countries such as Japan, Germany, India, and Brazil.. Neither does it help to pave the way by force. This is what we are currently experiencing in Iraq. We are all losing there: the United States, the United Nations, and, again, the Iraqis themselves. The United Nations is no moral authority in Iraq.

    [Stern] Why not?

    [ElBaradei] Over a period of 10 years, the UN economic embargo punished the people, rather than the regime. The population was at the mercy of the sanctions. The United Nations is not seen as an organization that wants to help Iraq. This is probably the reason for the dreadful attack carried out in Baghdad last week. Sanctions must punish dictators, not ordinary people.

    [Stern] And how is that supposed to happen?

    [ElBaradei] There must be no difference between dictators that are friendly toward the West and so-called evil ones. Forbid them to travel. Freeze their foreign wealth. Force dictators to carry out reforms.

    [Stern] Iraq’s supposed weapons of mass destruction were the material reason for the war. None have been found to date. Has the world been led by the nose?

    [ElBaradei] It is a shame that we were unable to finish our work. Now, it may turn out that no weapons existed in the first place, and war could have been avoided.

    [Stern] Now, with hindsight, do you feel you have been used?

    [ElBaradei] No, not really. Experience in Iraq shows that intelligence service information has to be taken with a grain of salt. Do we really want to wage war on every country that is suspected of developing weapons of mass destruction? I think that inspections can really help. This, however, requires time and patience. Meaningful inspections can prevent a nuclear holocaust.


    *
    Mohamed ElBaradei isDirector of the International Atomic Energy AgencyThis interview appeared in Germany in Hamburg Stern, major independent, illustrated weekly magazine, on 28 August 2003. The interviewers were Katja Gloger and Hans-Hermann Klare. [FBIS Translated Text]

  • Approaching the Second Anniversary of 9/11

    Approaching the Second Anniversary of 9/11

    As we approach the second anniversary of the terrorist attacks of 9/11, it is important to take a hard look at the direction our country has taken since these tragic events occurred.

    The United States has attacked Afghanistan and driven the Taliban regime from power. In the process, we killed some 3,000 to 5,000 civilians, more than died at the World Trade Center and Pentagon. The US has not been able to locate and capture Osama bin Laden, the suspected mastermind of the 9/11 attacks. Reports from Afghanistan are that the US-backed regime there controls little more than the city of Kabul, and warlords are in control of the rest of the country.

    The United States has also attacked Iraq, but with neither evidence of a link between Iraq and the 9/1l terrorists, nor with the sanction of the United Nations. The US preventive war against Iraq killed some 6,000 to 8,000 civilians, about twice as many as died at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Since this war, it has come to light that in making its case for war, the Bush administration used false intelligence to inflate its claim that Iraq posed an imminent threat of using weapons of mass destruction against the United States.

    The US has not been able to locate and capture Saddam Hussein or the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar. Nor have any of the purported weapons of mass destruction, which supposedly made the Iraqi threat so imminent, been found. There is a strong sense that the Iraqi people are opposed to US occupation of their country, and American soldiers are being killed on an almost daily basis. Most recently, saboteurs have also been attacking the Iraqi oil pipelines.

    In addition to the price in American and Iraqi lives, the occupation of Iraq is costing US taxpayers nearly $4 billion each month, adding to the over $450 billion projected deficit in the US budget this year. There is no clear plan for US withdrawal from Iraq, and the administration will not predict how long American troops are likely to remain or how much the occupation is likely to cost in total. US corporations, with links to the Bush administration, are being given lucrative contracts to rebuild Iraq’s infrastructure and manage its oil production.

    We still have no authoritative public report on the intelligence failures that led to 9/11. No one has been dismissed and no blame has been laid at the feet of the intelligence community. The impression from the Bush administration is that the lead up to 9/11 was just too difficult for the intelligence community to handle, due to the paucity of communication within and between agencies and the need to actually connect some dots. The families of the 9/11 victims, along with the rest of the American people, are still waiting for clearer and more complete answers to why our intelligence failed so dramatically.

    In a Congressional study related to intelligence failures, much of the important information has been kept from the American people by the Bush administration, including 28 pages on the role of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi leadership and members of Congress have pleaded that this information be released to the American people, but to no avail. Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL), former chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, stated, “My judgment is 95 percent of that information could be declassified, become uncensored so the American people would know.”

    Since the war in Afghanistan, the United States has held prisoners, including US citizens, in a manner that defies the Geneva Conventions on the treatment of prisoners. The administration, aided by the Congress, has instituted the USA Patriot Act, which restricts the civil liberties of all Americans. The administration has put forward further legislation that provides even more drastic restrictions on our liberties.

    The trends do not bode well for America. In two years, the country has engaged in two wars, at least one of which was clearly illegal under international law. The administration has engaged in a clear pattern of deception. Our wars have killed at least three times the number of innocent civilians as died in the 9/11 attacks. The individual thought to be principally responsible for 9/11 remains at liberty, while the liberties of Americans have been restricted. The goodwill with which America was held throughout the world in the aftermath of 9/11 has been squandered. We are viewed by much of the international community as bullies who use military force in defiance of international law and make our own rules when it suits us.

    Our soldiers continue to pay the ultimate price for the arrogance of this administration. Mr. Bush, in the safety of the White House, challenged the militants attacking American troops in Iraq with the rash and taunting remark, “Bring ‘em on.” This remark drew many negative responses from the troops stationed in Iraq and their families.

    Two years after 9/11 Americans do not appear to be safer from terrorist attacks than they were before 9/11. We have a new bureaucracy, the Department of Homeland Security, and a system of color-coded warnings, but these do not seem to be effective barriers to terrorist threats. There is no reason to believe that terrorists hate America because they envy our way of life, as Mr. Bush says, and every reason to believe that terrorists oppose our political and economic policies, particularly in the Middle East.

    To end the threat of terrorism, the United States needs a return to decency and the values that make this country strong. We need to reconsider the morality, legality and consequences of our policies. This would require a major reversal of the Bush administration policies that have cynically used 9/11 in seeking to achieve its ideological goals of global military dominance, control of oil, and financial gain for an elite few. On the positive side of the ledger, there are increasing signs that Congress, the media and the American people are awakening to the dangers of these policies and vocally and actively opposing them. It is none too soon to reassess and reverse the path we have taken since 9/11.

     

    –David Krieger is president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (www.wagingpeace.org). He is the editor of Hope in a Dark Time, Reflections on Humanity’s Future.


    Readers’ Comments

    If you’d like to send us your comments please e-mail us at: letters@napf.org
    (Please include the name of the article in the subject line)

    > David, What a clear and courageous message. What I keep reading is an immense encouragement to carry on. Greetings,

    –Hans von Sponeck

    > Bravo on the 9/11 article. Your synopsis was articulate and succinct. You covered a great deal of territory very well. It seems that this tragedy has reached epic proportions with no end in sight. People in the street were screaming for Arab blood even before the dust settled, but one of my first instincts as I stood there and watched the gaping holes burn was a sense of mystification as to how two commercial airliners could strike such an obvious target almost 20 minutes apart without being intercepted. When I saw the NY Times timeline graphic of the hijackings the next day, I became further intrigued. These planes were off course almost from the beginning and it had to be clear to the professionals doing their jobs that emergency procedures were required. In taking the ensuing events into account, it adds up but I doubt that many people will open their minds up to the obvious. It doesn’t’t take total participation to gum up the works – only a few strategic delays. You steered clear of conspiracy theories yet the implication of what you write very much mirrors my thoughts and doubts…Regardless, I appreciate reading incisive commentary such as yours.

    –Monte, USA

     

    > Your write-up is apt as it clearly touches on a lot of issues which have been brought to the fore ever since the Bush administration came into being. It is rather worrisome to note that if the administration carries on its foreign policies with so much prevalent arrogance and deception,it will unwittingly attract more international criticism and hatred,particularly from the Arab world. The Bush administration must realize that “might is not right” and embark on a total and immediate review, if not reversal of its foreign policies. Gross violation of international law by any state must not be permissible with impunity.The US must allow the United Nations perform its responsibilities,as it is the only authority vested with maintaining world peace and security.The US must cease to be the “police of the world”,as the Bush administration has very demanding domestic problems begging for attention. All states must recognize the need and desirability for the existence, maintenance and sustainability of a true world order where the rule of law,justice,moderation and cooperation are the cardinal principles regulating state actions.Acts of aggression, abuse and usurpation power must be avoided if we are serious about addressing the problem of terrorism and sustainability of global peace and security.

    –Kadiri, Nigeria

  • Notes From The Road

    Recently, I spent some time in northern California. The trip was both rewarding and productive. The main reasons for the visit were to speak at the Hands Around Livermore Lab Rally and March, strategize actions for the upcoming year with fellow members of the Coalition to Demilitarize the University of California, and co-facilitate a workshop introducing the UC Nuclear Free Campaign at the University of California Student Association (UCSA) Congress.

    Livermore

    On Sunday, August 10th, Hands Around the Lab: Rally and March drew over 1,000 people to a key facility in the US nuclear weapons complex, UC-managed Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in Livermore, California. The day’s agenda included a gathering at William Payne Park adjacent to LLNL and culminated in participants joining of hands encircling the lab. The event was one of the many organized to commemorate the anniversaries of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and mobilize citizens toward a nuclear weapons free world. KPFA’s Miguel Gavilan Molina served as master of ceremony, orchestrating a series of passionate of musicians and speakers. I used my allotted microphone time to emphasize the power of young people in the struggle to protect civil rights and work for peace. Moving from the theoretical to practical, I informed listeners of UC student efforts to get their university out of nuclear weapons business. Slightly revising the day’s schedule, I asked recent UC Santa Cruz grad, Darwin BondGraham, to share his thoughts on the subject. His comments framed the nuclear issue within the larger trend of the increasing militarization of colleges and universities. We ended by inviting people to visit our small information table and/or join us for our planning meeting the following day. There was an excellent line-up of speakers that followed. Unfortunately, I only heard bits and pieces of their comments as I talked with various people while walking through the crowd back to our information table.
    Berkeley

    The following day, members of the Coalition to Demilitarize the University of California met to brainstorm and reach consensus around actions to advance the UC Nuclear Free Campaign during the 2003-2004 school year. Undergraduate and graduate students from Berkeley, Davis, Los Angeles, and Santa Cruz contributed to the dialogue as well as representatives of Tri-Valley CAREs and Western States Legal Foundation. I spoke on behalf of the Foundation and committed myself to reporting back to UCSB students who could not attend due to prior commitments. Given its history of student and community activism, UC Berkeley was a great place to meet. If you are interested in the notes from this brainstorming session, please write me at youth@napf.org.
    Sacramento

    Prior to our workshop at the University of California Student Association (UCSA) Congress, three of us from the Coalition joined UCSA at their action opposing Proposition 54, otherwise known as The Racial Privacy Initiative. Introduced by UC Regent Ward Connerly, the misleading October ballot measure would effectively restrict efforts to resolve societal problems that have racial implications, such as hate crimes and discrimination, health care and disease treatment, and education access and achievement. The action was held at Connerly’s American Civil Rights Institute based in Sacramento. Connerly is the same Regent who the San Francisco Chronicle quoted as saying that UC will not bid to manage Los Alamos National Laboratory if the Department of Energy chose to implement an open competition, which was announced in April. Furthermore, common ground between anti-racism and anti-nuclear weapons movements is evident in that people of color suffer disproportionately from both the testing of nuclear weapons and storage of toxic waste from weapons development and nuclear energy production.
    Davis

    Later in the day, we began our workshop and dialogue, introducing about 20 undergraduate, graduate, and professional student leaders from UCLA, UCSB, UCI, UCSD, and UCR to the UC Nuclear Free Campaign. The Coalition had a strong showing of co-facilitators present, representing 3 campuses and 2 community organizations. There was a good diversity of viewpoints and experiences: one student had visited the Hiroshima Peace Museum as a high school student, another’s parents worked at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, another declared that nuclear weapons are going to be used in the near future, and another was a member of the Berkley Associated Students that passed a resolution calling for UC to get out of the nuclear weapons business. We provided participants with an overview of US nuclear weapons policy, a description of the history and future plans of our Coalition, a highly-interactive question and answer period, and hand-outs, particularly One Bomb, Two Bomb, Gold Bomb, Blue Bomb: The Scholastic Adventures of Robbie D. Bomb, written and designed by Emily Hell and Darwin BondGraham. Newcomer Coalition member, Brian Sparks came through with the question of the day: “So what are we going to do?” Ultimately, we had to bring our workshop to a close due to time constraints, and Michael Cox volunteered to explore answers to Brian’s question throughout the remaining 3 days of the Congress. We are grateful to have had the opportunity to contribute our piece to the UCSA Congress in part because UCSA is recognized by the UC Administration, UC Board of Regents, California Legislature, the California Governor’s Office and numerous state and federal agencies as the official voice of the over 180,000 UC Students, but more so as active citizens seeking alternatives and solutions to current conditions.
    However before we left UC Davis, we visited the UC Davis physics department for an impromptu weapons inspection. We were lucky to meet Professor Wendell Potter amidst the dust of summer construction and renovation. He spoke with the five of us for about 30 minutes about the integrity of university researchers, the often fine line between defense and civilian applications, and love of learning. He understood why we chose the physics department for our inspection, but cautioned us not to overlook the biology department. As you may know, UC Davis is the proposed site for a $200 million infectious disease research facility laboratory that would work with potentially lethal viruses and bacteria. The exchange with Professor Potter was an unexpected highlight of the trip.
    It was great solidifying established contacts and meeting new allies! I thank all of you whose curiosity and generosity made my week enjoyable.

  • Sergio Vieira de Mello: A Man of Peace

    In these dark times of violence and despair, of wars and genocide, the death of Sergio Vieira de Mello, the Brazilian diplomat, special representative to the UN in Iraq, is an enormous loss in the struggle for peace.

    His distinguished career as an experienced and respected diplomat expanded over three decades and his achievements were important in the cause for justice and goodness.

    I had the opportunity to meet him during my work with the Cousteau Society. I remember his comments regarding Captain Jacques Cousteau, “He is truly the Quixote of Ecology”. We discussed the urgency to make people understand the need to protect the environment for future generations. Mr. Mello’s remarked, “the ones we need to convince are the decision makers and that is the difficult part”.

    In his own right de Mello was also a Quixote fighting for what is just and putting his life on the line in some of the most dangerous trouble spots in the world.

    He was an ardent defender of the role of the United Nations in the Iraq crisis. He relied on his previous experience as negotiator and diplomat in Lebanon, Rwanda, Kosovo and East Timor looking for the delicate balance between the UN’s presence in Iraq and the occupying forces.

    A couple of days ago a brave journalist was killed in Baghdad “by mistake” by U.S. forces. Ironically, those same forces couldn’t stop a huge truck loaded with explosives from reaching the UN building.

    Violence and anarchy run rampant in the occupied Arab nation and more American soldiers are killed or wounded nearly every day. More resources and more troops will be used to stabilized Iraq. But a war started by the U.S. showing its disdain for the UN and the Security Council will not easily reach the peace for which Mr. Mello and other brave UN officials have died this August 19th.
    Ruben Arvizu is the Director for Latin America of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. Presently he is working to establish the Mexican chapter of NAPF.

  • Fueling the Nuclear Fire:  Nuclear Policies of the Bush Administration

    Fueling the Nuclear Fire: Nuclear Policies of the Bush Administration

    The George W. Bush administration came into office with the clear intention to strengthen US global military dominance, including its nuclear dominance, and it has been true to this major policy goal. Under this administration, military expenditures have increased by some $100 billion to approximately $400 billion annually, and nuclear weapons have assumed a far more central role in US security policy.

    The administration’s blatant disregard for the United Nations Security Council and for long-standing arms control and disarmament efforts are clear signs that it is prepared to chart a unilateral course with regard to security issues. The US has signaled its desire to overhaul its nuclear arsenal by developing smaller and more usable nuclear weapons, which could be used as part of the new “Bush doctrine” of preemption. The administration has developed contingency plans for the use of nuclear weapons against seven other countries and against weapons of mass destruction (WMD) stockpiles of what it considers to be “rogue” states.

    In its dramatic shift towards increasingly aggressive nuclear and military policies, the Bush administration has opened a new era of increased likelihood of US nuclear weapons use. In turn, the administration has provoked the initiation of a new nuclear arms race as other states attempt to develop or increase their nuclear arsenals to counter-balance US military dominance and the threat of US willingness to employ the Bush doctrine of preemptive warfare.
    Bush Policy Goals

    Nuclear “Reduction”
    As a candidate for president in 2000, Mr. Bush announced that he wanted to reduce the level of strategic nuclear weapons in the US arsenal to the lowest number compatible with US security. Based on military studies, that number was placed at between 1,700 and 2,200 deployed strategic nuclear weapons. According to the Nuclear Posture Review, a classified document released to Congress on December 31, 2001, “Based on current projections, an operationally deployed force of 1700-2200 strategic nuclear warheads by 2012…will support US deterrence policy to hold at risk what opponents value, including their instruments of political control and military power, and to deny opponents their war aims.”

    This “reduction” of deployed warheads will be accomplished by transferring warheads from active delivery vehicles to either a “responsive force” or to “inactive reserve.” This should be seen more as a de-alerting measure rather than a disarmament measure, as nuclear weapons are merely shifted to non-deployed status and not dismantled.

    Missile Defense
    While campaigning, Bush also promoted the development and deployment of a National Missile Defense to protect the United States against nuclear attacks by so-called rogue states, a proposal that would have been prohibited under the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Upon assuming the presidency, Bush dealt with the impediment of the ABM Treaty by withdrawing from it. He gave the six months notice required by the Treaty for withdrawal on December 13, 2001, and US withdrawal became effective on June 13, 2002. Since then, Bush had announced plans to deploy the first twenty interceptor missiles in Alaska and California by 2004.
    The US Nuclear Posture Review

    The clearest indication of a shift of US nuclear policy can be found in the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), marking a major change in the US nuclear strategy beyond the Cold War doctrines of deterrence. This document lays out a “New Triad,” composed of offensive strike systems (nuclear and non-nuclear), defenses (active and passive), and a revitalized defense infrastructure (providing new capabilities) to meet emerging threats.

    The Review states, “Nuclear weapons play a critical role in the defense capabilities of the United States, its allies and friends. They provide credible military options to deter a wide range of threats, including WMD [weapons of mass destruction] and large-scale conventional military force. These nuclear capabilities possess unique properties that give the United States options to hold at risk classes of targets [that are] important to achieve strategic and political objectives.” This is an extraordinary assertion of the benefits that US leaders attribute to nuclear weapons in US defense policy, benefits that they are clearly reserving for themselves and a small group of other nuclear weapons states while seeking to deny them to other nations. Salient points of the report are summarized below:

    Nuclear strikes against WMD 
    In proposing the use of nuclear weapons to deter against WMD, the NPR embraces the option of using nuclear weapons not only against countries with nuclear weapons but also those in possession of chemical and biological weapons. The document states, “U.S. nuclear forces will continue to provide assurance to security partners, particularly in the presence of known or suspected threats of nuclear, biological, or chemical attacks or in the event of surprising military developments.”

    New nuclear capabilities 
    The report makes a discernible move towards making nuclear weapons “usable” on the battleground. The NPR talks of credible nuclear policies “over the coming decades” that include “new generations of weapon systems.” These have been conceived as “low-yield deep earth penetration nuclear weapons,” popularly described as “bunker-busters”, to defeat hard and deeply buried targets such as underground bunkers and bio-weapon facilities, and “mini-nukes” (with yields less than 5 kilotons). These are weapons that proponents believe will cause limited civilian casualties and collateral damage, and opponents view as making nuclear weapons more usable and more likely to be used. The Bush administration is seeking $70 million to advance these nuclear weapons programs.

    Shortening nuclear test readiness
    The report calls for strengthening the “U.S. Nuclear Warhead Infrastructure.” It states, “The need is clear for a revitalized nuclear weapons complex that will: …be able, if directed, to design, develop, manufacture, and certify new warheads in response to new national requirements; and maintain readiness to resume underground nuclear testing if required.”

    Consequently, the Bush administration has sought funds to “enhance” test readiness and shorten the time required to prepare for the resumption of full-scale test explosions – decreasing the current time from 24-36 months to approximately 18 months.

    Contingency plans
    The report further calls for development of contingency plans for the use of nuclear weapons against seven countries: Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Libya, Russia and China. As five of these countries are non-nuclear weapons states, the US threat to use nuclear weapons against them violates the negative security assurances that it gave to the non-nuclear weapons states that are parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty at the time of that NPT’s Review and Extension Conference in 1995.

    In sum, the Bush administration’s Nuclear Posture Review is a strategy for indefinite reliance on nuclear weapons with plans to improve the capabilities of the existing arsenal and to revitalize the infrastructure for improving US nuclear forces in the future. The NPR promotes an expanded nuclear strategy as opposed to measures for irreversible nuclear disarmament as agreed to at the 2000 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference.
    Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty

    In May 2002, President Bush reached an agreement with President Putin on a Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT). In the treaty, the two governments agreed to reduce the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons on each side to Bush’s preferred numbers, as set forth in the US NPR, of between 1,700 and 2,200 by the year 2012. The treaty made no provisions for interim reductions, and thus, despite SORT, it remains possible for either or both sides to actually increase the size of their arsenal between the inception of the treaty and 2012, so long as the reductions to the agreed numbers are accomplished by 2012. The treaty, however, does not provide verification measures to assure that the reductions are made. The treaty is also set to terminate, unless extended, in 2012.

    Furthermore, the treaty has no provisions for the nuclear warheads to be removed from active deployment. The US has announced its intentions to put many or most of these warheads into storage in “reserve” status, where they will remain available to be reintroduced to active deployment should this decision be taken in the future. Russia is likely to follow the US approach, and the treaty may exacerbate a new threat of theft and transfer of nuclear weapons and materials from Russia to other nations or terrorist groups

    SORT was announced with considerable fanfare. It gave the public a sense of progress toward nuclear disarmament, when in fact it was far more of a public relations effort than an actual arms reduction treaty. Although it did provide for removing several thousand nuclear weapons on both sides from deployment, and in this sense it was a de-alerting measure, it did not make these reductions irreversible (i.e., by dismantlement) or accountable to verification as agreed to by the parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty at the 2000 NPT Review Conference.

    US National Security Strategy

    In September 2002, the Bush administration released a document entitled “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America.” In a letter introducing the document, Mr. Bush stated, “The gravest danger our Nation faces lies at the crossroads of radicalism and technology. Our enemies have openly declared that they are seeking weapons of mass destruction, and evidence indicates that they are doing so with determination. The United States will not allow these efforts to succeed…. [A]s a matter of common sense and self-defense, America will act against such emerging threats before they are fully formed.” [Emphasis added.]

    This statement underlined Mr. Bush’s intention and willingness to engage in preemptive war, including the possibility of a nuclear first strike. A few months earlier, on June 1, 2002, when Mr. Bush spoke at the graduation ceremony of the United States Military Academy, he introduced the idea of preemptive war by stating, “[O]ur security will require all Americans to be forward-looking and resolute, to be ready for preemptive action when necessary to defend our liberty and to defend our lives.”
    US Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction

    In December 2002, the Bush administration released a new document, entitled “National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction.” The document recognized the dangers of the “massive harm” that weapons of mass destruction could inflict upon the United States, its military forces, and its friends and allies. “We will not permit,” it stated, “the world’s most dangerous regimes and terrorists to threaten us with the world’s most destructive weapons.”

    The document is premised on the administration’s strategy for the US to possess and possibly use nuclear weapons, while denying, preventing, and responding to the possession and possible use of weapons of mass destruction by other countries or terrorists.

    In setting forth its plan to retaliate with a nuclear strike in response to a nuclear, biological and chemical weapon attack, the document stated clearly that the US would counter such weapons with “overwhelming force – including through resort to all of our options.” The Washington Times reported on January 31, 2003 that the classified version of the document, National Security Presidential Directive 17, signed by President Bush in September 2002, stated the issue in this way: “The United States will continue to make clear that it reserves the right to respond with overwhelming force – including potentially nuclear weapons – to the use of [weapons of mass destruction] against the United States, our forces abroad, and friends and allies.” [Emphasis added.]

    In vowing that the US will seek capabilities enabling it to “detect and destroy an adversary’s WMD assets before these weapons are used,” the strategy boldly forewarns states seeking WMD that the US could strike first.

    Failure to Lead toward Nuclear Disarmament

    In sum, Bush’s aggressive nuclear policy has shown scant concern for US treaty obligations, rendering many international arms control measures meaningless.

    • Most prominently, the Bush administration has withdrawn from the ABM Treaty to pursue missile defenses and test space-based weapons.
    • The Bush administration is not taking seriously, nor attempting to fulfill, US obligations for nuclear disarmament under Article VI of the NPT, nor has it shown good faith in fulfilling the 2000 NPT Review Conference’s 13 Practical Steps for Nuclear Disarmament – including pursuing the promised “unequivocal undertaking by the nuclear weapons states to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals….”
    • Washington has made clear that it does not intend to send the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) back to the Senate for ratification. The Bush administration has indicated plans to shorten the time needed to resume underground nuclear testing, and is developing more usable nuclear weapons and contingency plans for their use.

    Current nuclear policies by the Bush administration must be viewed as highly provocative to other countries. They suggest that the US reserves to itself the right to use its own weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, as it deems appropriate, while, at the same time, seeking to deny that possibility to other countries.

    Early in his presidency, Mr. Bush labeled Iraq, Iran and North Korea as an “Axis of Evil.” Based upon his doctrine of preemption, Mr. Bush has already led the US to wage a preventive war on Iraq without sanction by the United Nations. The other two countries singled out by Mr. Bush have not been unresponsive to the aggressiveness of the Bush administration. In January 2003, North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and announced that it is reprocessing spent nuclear fuel to develop a nuclear arsenal. Iran, which is still a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has attracted international suspicion in recent months due to its ambitious plans to extend its nuclear facilities, showing signs of moving forward with developing its own nuclear arsenal. In both cases, US policies and provocations have helped drive the reactions.

    The Bush administration, by withdrawing from the ABM Treaty and proceeding with deployment of regional and national missile defenses, has provoked China to further develop its offensive nuclear arsenal in order to maintain a minimally effective deterrent force. China’s plans to further its nuclear program may in turn spark further developments in the South Asia nuclear impasse.

    Under the military and nuclear policies of the Bush administration, the United States is leading the world into an even more dangerous era, with the effect of pouring fuel on the nuclear fire. Current Bush administration nuclear policies pose an enormous threat to US and global security. These policies must be reversed and brought into line with US obligations to international non-proliferation and disarmament agreements. Since the Bush administration is unlikely to initiate such change, the challenge to reverse these policies and bring the US into compliance with international commitments lies with the US public and the international community.
    –David Krieger is president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (www.wagingpeace.org). His recent books include Choose Hope, Your Role in Waging Peace in the Nuclear Age (Middleway Press, 2002) and Hope in a Dark Time, Reflections on Humanity’s Future (Capra Press, 2003).

  • Freedom or Force on the High Seas? Arms Interdiction and International Law*

    North Korea’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime and announcement of a nuclear weapons program was an unfortunate development, which the international community must work to reverse. Some US officials are, however, advocating for a policy of interdicting [1] North Korean ships – a policy that would do more harm than good to international stability by undermining the International Law of the Sea.

    The International Law of the Sea is one of the most comprehensive and well-established bodies of international regulatory norms in existence. The Law of the Sea regime (LOS) is buttressed by longstanding international norms, and formal legal agreements, critical to creating a more secure international environment. [2]

    The Law of the Sea grants several freedoms, including the right to navigation on the high seas and rights to transit [3] through international straits, exclusive economic zones (EEZ), and the territorial and archipelagic waters of another state. The regime does bar a select number of illegal activities, including piracy, slave trade, illicit traffic in narcotic drugs or psychotropic substances, and unauthorized broadcasting, and grants states the right to intervene in such activities. [4]

    There is nothing in the LOS regime that explicitly prohibits transit of weapons of mass destruction or gives States rights to interdict such transit. On the contrary, a number of States, including the United States, have actively opposed the development of such prohibitive norms or interpretations of international law that would inhibit the transit of weapons of mass destruction by the seas or air, and cite the rights and privileges established in the Law of the Sea to affirm their unhindered military use of the oceans. Nuclear weapon states such as the US, UK and France have continuously worked to ensure that their ability to transit nuclear weapons is not hindered by regional nuclear weapons free zones or UN efforts to create a Nuclear Weapon Free Southern Hemisphere. The US, UK and France, along with Japan, have also asserted their rights to transit nuclear materials – in particular reprocessed plutonium – through the high seas and through the EEZ’s of coastal States. In addition, a number of States, including the United States, France, Israel, China, Russia and Italy, export missile technology transiting through the oceans to do so.

    In contrast to this general assertion of rights to transit nuclear weapons, missile technology [5], fissile materials and other materials related to weapons of mass destruction, the US is currently advocating for the selected interdiction of such materials to and from certain states of concern to the Bush Administration as a means to stem proliferation. Ten countries have now joined what is known as the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), which met in Madrid, Spain in early June and in Brisbane, Australia in the beginning of July 2003 [6]. Members of PSI include: Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

    However, there are limitations to the transit that countries can legally inhibit in their territorial waters and EEZs and even stricter limitations on what can be intercepted on the High Seas.
    The legal implications of arms interdictions on the oceans depend greatly on the nature of interdictions and the way the interdictions are undertaken. Some States have agreed to export controls amongst themselves, such as those laid out in the Missile Technology Control Regime. However, the States of concern to the US, such as North Korea, China, Pakistan and Iran, are not members and so are not bound by these controls. It might be legal to interdict shipments on the High Seas that have been deemed by the Security Council or the Law of the Sea Tribunal to violate the Law of the Sea and to constitute a threat to the peace. This option is pursued in a recent strategy issued by the Council of the European Union calling on the EU to support a Security Council Resolution that would arms interdictions “when appropriate.” [7] Also, in territorial waters it might be possible for the coastal State to determine the transit of missiles or WMD to be a threat to its security and thus prohibit such transit deeming it to be non-innocent passage.
    Any interdictions outside those explicitly allowed in the existing International Law of the Sea regime would clearly violate the freedom of navigation on the high seas and the right of innocent passage through territorial waters.

    Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer has recognized that there is a “very real difficulty in terms of vessels that might be going through the high seas because international law requires that those ships should not be intercepted,” [8] and that there might therefore “need to be some change to international law to facilitate these types of interdictions, to stop illicit trade.”[9] However, changing the Law of the Sea would be a long process requiring extensive negotiations and would unlikely yield the discriminatory approach desired by the PSI of allowing transit by certain States but not others.

    The likelihood that the US and PSI will thus develop an interdiction strategy outside international law is reinforced by the current trend in US policy towards dismantling norms that prevent the US from exercising its military dominance. The US has moved away from multi-lateral non-proliferation solutions, withdrawn from the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, abandoned START II, failed to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and stalled efforts to improve the Biological Weapons Convention regime. The controversy over the UK and US use of intelligence in Iraq will also bring into question the legitimacy of intelligence information used to justify interdictions regarding the existence of arms and material shipments and their intended destination and/or use.

    Restricting the transit of weapons of mass destruction would be a positive development in furthering arms control and stemming proliferation, if such norms were carefully developed by the international community and applied uniformly. International law cannot, however, maintain its integrity if applied whimsically or discriminately, or if defined by a small “coalition of the willing.” While PSI membership may appear to be an easy way for leaders of certain countries to get back into the good graces of the Bush administration after disagreements over Iraq, if they contribute to the degradation of LOS it will likely come back to haunt them. If leaders of the states participating in the PSI attempt to exchange LOS norms for selective nonproliferation measures, they should realize that such a trade-off could eventually restrict their own country’s access to international waters. If members of the international community begin to allow the erosion of the Law of the Sea to suite the policy goals of the sole existing superpower, they should not expect that such concessions would be easily reversed.
    * This article is a summary of a longer piece pending publication in Science for Democratic Action, the newsletter of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research.

    **Devon Chaffee is the Research and Advocacy Coordinator of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation


    1. Interdicting: intercepting ships and ensuring that no proscribed activities are being conducted.
    2. Such formal agreements include the four 1958 Conventions that resulted from the Geneva Conference on the law of the sea, to which the US is a party, and the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which President Ronald Reagan decided not to sign onto for fear that it could interfere with certain US sovereign prerogatives. The US has however signed the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.
    3. Transit through territorial waters is limited to innocent passage. According to the 1958 Convention on the Territorial Sea “Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal state.”
    4. In addition to their codification into the law of the sea through the 1958 and the 1982 Conventions, the prohibition of these activities has been codified by a series of multilateral treaties including: 1965 Agreement for the Prevention of Broadcasts Transmitted from Stations outside National Territories; General Act for the Repression of the Slave Trade, 1890;
    5. See UN Register of Conventional Arms, http://disarmament.un.org/UN_REGISTER.nsf and Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments, The Nonproliferation Review, Center for Nonproliferation Studies,http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol05/53/db53.pdf
    6. Chairman’s Statement, Proliferation Security Initiative, Brisbane Meeting, July 9-10, 2003.http://www.dfat.gov.au/globalissues/psi/
    7. Strategy against Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and its corresponding Action Plan adopted by the Council of the European Union on April 14, 2003.
    8. “N Korea Ships Face more Scrutiny,” BBC, June 11, 2003.
    9. Sonni Efron and Barbara Demick, “11 nations to Discuss Blocking Shipments of Weapons Materials,” Los Angeles Times. June 12, 2003.