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Article by David Shi
Introduction: Defining Nuclear Entrenchment
The American nuclear arsenal has been the central piece of defense policy for nearly eight decades. Yet, deterrence theory alone cannot fully explain this persistence of nuclear dominance, which endures as much from entrenched political and economic structures as from strategic necessity. It is, instead, a consequence of a broader political economy of nuclear entrenchment—a dynamic whereby strategic justifications, institutional momentum, spatial diffusion of rewards, and interdependence at the community level converge to maintain the arsenal. It is a process that must be reversed through a new strategy and redistribution of economic and social policy. Drawing from concepts in political economics and climate policy, this article is intended to provide a brief overview of the political economy issues surrounding U.S. nuclear entrenchment and provide possible pathways forward.
Strategic Thinking and Its Implications
The intellectual pillar of U.S. nuclear doctrine is deterrence: the assumption that a credible deterrent threat of retaliation will prevent adversaries from launching a first strike. This Cold War-era doctrine was employed to support a nuclear “triad” of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers.
Yet, deterrence is insufficient to account for the extent of U.S. modernization. New motives—China’s growing nuclear program, Russia’s modernization of its weaponry, and emerging technologies like cyberwarfare—have certainly propelled modernization. Strategy is half the answer, however. The political economy of U.S. nuclear policy creates greater policy lock-in than is needed.
The Political Economy of Entrenchment: Government and Institutional Levels
Path Dependence
Nuclear programs are self-reinforcing once begun. Investments in silo, submarines, and labs are sunk costs and create bureaucratic constituencies. Abandoning these programs risks both financial waste and political backlash, and change is therefore costly. That is why path dependency is responsible for policies from decades ago—such as a triad—still dominating today’s political agenda.
Geography and Congressional Politics
Nuclear weapons programs employ people in congressional districts and states by the hundreds. Sentinel ICBMs support Wyoming, North Dakota, and Montana societies; submarine construction supports Virginia and Connecticut shipyards. This diffusion across space guarantees bipartisan support in Congress, even from members who doubt the nuclear doctrine. Nuclear expenditure then disguises itself under the cover of national defense as an unofficial regional development agenda by way of “militarized Keynesianism”
In thinking of members of Congress as rational “single-minded seekers of reelection,” it becomes clear why these programs persist: they provide jobs, contracts, and local prestige that representatives can point to as tangible benefits for constituents. Once provided, on the other hand, the political backlash is much more likely to be felt, thus pushing the U.S. towards dangerous modernization spending.
Budgetary Myopia
Whereas stockpile modernization is a negligible share of total defense spending, its impact is multiplied by exploding overall military budgets. Nuclear spending is discretionary and classified, and asymmetrical information enables the nuclear complex to appropriate funds with little transparency and therefore weaker coalitions of opposition. This process, in turn, further entrenches nuclear weapons and squeezes out social programs.
Human Capital Lock-In: Worker and Community Levels
The nuclear complex is not only machines and missiles but also people. National Laboratories, such as Los Alamos and Livermore, and missile bases across the Great Plains, rely on highly specialized workers whose expertise is tailored specifically to nuclear systems. These skills are not easily transferable. For communities and local economies that have grown around these facilities, dependence on federal contracts makes alternatives difficult.
This creates a classic case of concentrated benefits and diffuse costs: communities with direct economic stakes in nuclear programs fiercely defend them and make their positions known to their political representatives, while the broader population—who ultimately pay through taxes—remain disengaged or uninformed.
The Social Opportunity Costs of U.S. Nuclear Modernization
Over the next 30 years, the U.S. is currently projected to spend upwards of $1.7 trillion on nuclear modernization, including upgrading warheads, delivery systems, and supporting nuclear infrastructure. While modernization makes us minimally “safer” it also results in a stark tradeoff when considering the social policy benefits that could have been funded:
Education
- The annual cost of modernization (roughly $50–60 billion per year) could fully fund universal pre-K for all 3- and 4-year-olds in the United States.
- Redirecting just one year of modernization spending could pay for doubling Pell Grants, directly benefiting millions of low-income college students.
Healthcare
- The 10-year cost of modernization far exceeds the projected cost of expanding Medicaid to cover every uninsured American.
- Roughly $10 billion (Same cost as a single new nuclear submarine) could finance community health centers serving 20 million additional patients annually.
Housing and Poverty Reduction
- Redirecting a decade of nuclear modernization could virtually eliminate homelessness in the U.S., given estimates that ending chronic homelessness would require about $10 billion annually.
- $100 billion (two years of nuclear spending) could lift millions of children out of poverty if invested in Child Tax Credit expansions.
From Climate to Nuclear: Constructing an Equitable Transition
In climate politics, the concept of the “just transition” recognizes that decarbonization is bound to fail unless societies and workforces reliant upon fossil fuels are uplifted and empowered. Likewise, nuclear disarmament will not succeed without a substitute source of livelihood to offer. Nuclear establishment dismantlement will dismantle entrenched regional economies and elite networks, provoking resistance. Indeed, examples from around the world, such as France’s Yellow Vest Protests in 2018, show the political backlash that erupts when governments attempt to phase out entrenched sectors without providing adequate compensation or alternatives.
In this way, greater investments in social protection can help transition the U.S. into a compensatory state, supporting the communities that financially depend on nuclear modernization and helping the transition toward disarmament. A just nuclear transition would involve investment in worker guarantees, retraining of workers laid off from nuclear jobs, and social protection. There are lessons to learn from elsewhere in the world: Indonesia’s reform of fuel subsidies, for example, redirected tens of billions of dollars toward social programs and infrastructure. By pairing subsidy cuts with targeted cash transfers, the government mitigated political backlash and maintained stability, offering lessons for how economic transitions can be managed fairly.” Nuclear retrenchment can similarly accompany compensation and reskilling policy to ensure that communities are not abandoned.
Policy Directions Forward and Conclusion
Disarmament must come to be redefined as not just a requirement of security but also a product of the U.S.’s distinct political economy. To break this cycle of wasteful nuclear modernization that pushes the world closer and closer to nuclear annihilation, new coalitions must arise, bringing together peace activism alongside labor, climate justice, and social policy campaigns. Along with compensatory social investment, policymakers can defeat the economic as well as political origins of nuclear lock-in. Ultimately, a nuclear just transition envisions disarmament not as a loss, but as a redistribution: away from entrenched defense interests and toward communities, workers, and social policies that build genuine security.
needs to be defined
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